LESSON 3: Constructing Probability Distribution

Introduction
You have learned that the likelihood of winning in a lotto draw, number of
winnings in a gamble, number of heads that comes out in a toss of a coin and
other game of chance can be estimated using probability. But do you know that it
is not only for game of chance? We also use this in business, economics, and
engineering and other real-life situations.
In this self -learning module, the concept of probability distribution for a
discrete random variable will be introduced. Some decisions are made by
assigning probabilities to all possible outcomes pertaining to the situation. When
we draw conclusion from data, we usually state them in terms of probabilities.

How to Use this Module

This Self-Learning Kit module is designed to help the students in

understanding the concepts of probability distribution and its corresponding
histogram. This will serve as your guide to better understand the topics in
Statistics and Probability. A pre-test is given in this module before the self-
learning kit proper to determine a student’s baseline knowledge or level of
preparedness for their course of study. Enjoy learning in this module as you go
over with discussion and examples if you have not yet mastered a concept.

PRE-TEST
Before starting with the lesson of this module, answer the following
questions first. This will determine what you already know about the topic.
Direction: Shade the circle that corresponds to the letter of your answer.

1. What is the sum of the probabilities of all values of the

random variable?
A B C D
A. ∑ ( P ( X ) )= 0 C.∑ ( P ( X ) ) = 1
B. ∑ ( P ( X ) ) = 1/10 D.∑ ( P ( X ) ) = 10

2.If two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from

an urn containing 5 red balls and 6 blue balls. If the value of the
A B C D random variable represents the number of blue balls. How many
outcomes are possible ?
A.2 B. 4 C. 6 D. 8
 3.Which of the following cannot be the value of probability of the
random variable ?
A B C D
A. 1.01 B. 0 C. 1/4 D. 1/2

4.Which of the following can serve as the values of a probability

distribution ?
A B C D A. P(1) = 0.42, P2) = 0.31, P(3)= 0.37
C. P(1) = 9/14, P2) = 4/14, P(3)= 1/14
B. P(1) = 0.08, P2) = 0.12, P(3)= 1.03
D. P(1) = 10/33, P2) = 12/33, P(3)= 10/33

x
5. If P(X)= , what are the possible values of X for it to be a
6
A B C D probability distribution?
A.0,2,3 B.1,2,3 C. 2,3,4 D.1,1,2

Well, what can you say about the pre-test ? Do you think you did well ? To
find out if your answer is correct, compare your answers on the Answer Key
(This can be found at the end of the chapter).

Competency

1. Illustrates a probability distribution for a discrete random variable and its

properties. (M11/12SP-IIIa-4)
2. Constructs the probability mass function of a discrete random variable
and its corresponding histogram. (M11/12SP-IIIa-5)
3. Computes probabilities corresponding to a given random variable.
(M11/12SP-IIIa-6)

Objective

At the end of this lesson, you should be able to:

1. find the value of the random variable that represents in the given problem.
2. construct a probability distribution and its corresponding histogram for the
random variables described in the situation.
3. determine whether the distribution represents a probability distribution.

Procedure/Learning Experience

Activity
Number of Defective Computer
In a computer laboratory, the teacher wants to find out if there is a
defective computer. Supposed three computers are tested at random, she asks
one of her CSS students to list all the possible outcomes, such that D represents
the defective computer and N represents the non-defective computer. Let X be
the random variable for the number of defective computers. Find the value of the
random variable X.

a. List the sample space in the given experiment. Let D represent the defective
computer and N represent the non-defective computer. Count the number of
defective computers in each outcome in the sample space and assign this
number to this outcome. For instance , if you list NND the number of defective
computer is 1.

Value of the Random Variable X

Possible Outcomes
(number of defective computers)

b. Assign probability values P(X) to each value of the random variable

Number of Defective Computers X Probability P(X)
c. Construct a histogram for a probability distribution. Remember that a
histogram is a bar graph. Plot the values of the random variable along the
horizontal axis, then plot the probabilities along the vertical axis.

Analysis


This time, you need to reflect on the following questions. Answer the
following questions:

1. How did you find the activity?

2. How many outcomes did you obtained?
3. What are the values of the random variable?
4. How will you find the probability to each value of a random variable?
5. In the preceding probability distributions, what do you notice about the
probability of each value of the random variable?
6. What is the sum of the probabilities of all values of the random variable?

Abstraction

A random variable is a set whose elements are the numbers assigned to

the outcomes of an experiment. It is usually denoted by uppercase letters such
as X, whose elements are denoted by lower case letters x1, x2, x3 and so on.

Probability distribution of a discrete random variable specifies the probability

of each possible value of the random variable. The distribution functions of
discrete random variables are concentrated as a mass for a particular value,
and generally known as Probability Mass Function.

Properties of discrete probability distribution

1. The probability of each value of the random variable must be between
or equal to 0 and 1. In symbol 0 < P(X) < 1.
2. The sum of all the probabilities of all values of the random variable
must be equal to 1. In symbol, we write it as ΣP(X) = 1

Probability Histogram
 We can represent a probability distribution graphically by constructing a
type of bar graph called a probability histogram. This is constructed by
displaying the possible distinct values of the random variable along a
horizontal axis. Above each value x of the random variable, we draw vertical
bar having height equal to the probability P(x).

Ex. 1. Number of Green Balls

Write the probability distribution of a random variable Y representing the
number of green balls when 2 balls are drawn in succession without
replacement from a jar containing 4 red and 5 green balls. Construct a
histogram for this probability distribution.
Steps Solution
a.Determine the sample space. Let R The sample space for this
represent the red ball and G represent experiment is:
the green ball. S= { RR, RG, GR, GG}
b.Count the number of green balls in Possible Value of the
each outcome in the sample space and Outcomes Random Variable Y
assign this number to this outcome. (No. Of Green
Balls)
RR 0
RG 1
GR 1
GG 2
c.Assign probability values P(Y) to each Number of Probability P(Y)
value of the random variable. Green Balls Y
-There are 4 possible outcomes, if no
green ball occurs once, the probability
that we shall assign to the random 0 1/4
variable 0 is ¼
-If 1 green ball occurs two times, the
probability that we shall assign to the 1 2/4 or ½
random variable 1 is 2/4 or ½.
-If 2 green balls occur once, the
probability that we shall assign to the 2 ¼
random variable 1 is ¼.

Histogram
Construct a histogram for this probability distribution. A histogram is a bar
graph. To construct a histogram for a probability distribution, follow these steps.
Plot the values of the random variable along the horizontal axis.
 a) In plotting the probabilities along the vertical axis, you can change
fractions to decimals (ex. ¼=0.25 and ½= 0.5)
0.6

0.5

0.4

P(Y)
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 1 2

No. of Green Balls (Y)

Ex. 2.Write the probability mass function of the random variable X defined by
the outcomes of rolling a fair die and construct its corresponding histogram.

a)Since a die is fair, each of the 6 outcomes has a probability 1/6 or

approxiamtely 0.17, thus, the probability mass function is:
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
)

b) Histogram
0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10
P(X)

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6

Ex. 3.Let X be a random variable giving the number of girls in a randomly

selected three-child family. Assuming that boys and girls are equally likely ,
construct the probability distribution of X and its corresponding histogram.
a) Possible Value of the Random Variable X
Outcomes
(No. of Girls)
BBB 0
BBG 1
BGB 1
GBB 1
BGG 2
GBG 2
GGB 2
GGG 3

b)
No. of Girls 0 1 2 3
ΣP( Probability 1/8 or 3/8 or 0.375 3/8 or 1/8 or 0.125
X)= P(X) 0.125 0.375
1/8
+3/8 + 3/8 + 1/8 = 8/8 =1
c)Histogram
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
P(X)

0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3

No. of Girls (X)

4. X 1 5 7 8 9
P(X) 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3
Σ P(X)= 1/3 + 1/3 +1/3 +1/3 +1/3=5/3
This is not a probability distribution because ΣP(X) ≠ 1

X 1 3 5 7
5. P(X) 0.35 0.25 0.28 0.12
Σ P(X)= 0.35 + 0.25 + 0.28 + 0.12 =1
This is a probability distribution because ΣP(X) = 1

Application
Use the procedure that you have learned to solve the following problems
involving probability distribution of a discrete random variable.

A. Construct the probability distribution for the random variables described in

each of the following situations .Draw the corresponding histogram for each
probability distribution.

1. In a National Achievement Test, suppose three test booklets are tested at

random. Let D represent the defective test booklet and let N represent the non-
defective test booklet. Let X be the random variable representing the number of
non-defective test booklets.

2. An experiment consists of asking three Grade 10 students at random if they

prefer to choose Academic track or TVL track in the senior high school. Use A for
Academic and T for TVL. Let Y represent the random variable representing the
number of TVL track responses.
3. Suppose that a coin is to be tossed four times, and let X represent the number
of tails that occur.
4.Using the sample space for rolling two dice , construct a probability distribution
for the random variable X representing the sum of the numbers that appear.

B. Determine whether the distribution represents a probability distribution.

Explain your answer.
1. X 1 5 7 8
P(X) 1/4 1/8 1/4 1/8

2. X 0 2 3 4 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/3 1/6
 3. X 1 3 5 7
P(X) 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12

4. P(1)= 0.42, P(2)= 0.31, P(3)= 0.37

5. P(1)= 10/33, P(2)= 1/3, P(3)= 12/33

Have you finished answering? Compare your answer to the Answer Key
(This can be found at the end of the chapter).

Reflection
Look back and reflect on what you have done, then answer the following
questions.
1. Why should the sum of the probabilities in a probability distribution always
equal to 1?

2. What is the shape of most probability distributions? Why do you think so ?

POST - TEST

You are now ready to take another chance to know where you are so far. With
your effort and determination I believe you can do it once again. Good Luck.
Direction: Shade the circle that corresponds to the letter of your answer.

1.What is the sum of the probabilities of all values of the random

variable?
A B C D
A P(X) = 1 C. P(X) = 0
B P(X) = 1/10 D. P(X) = 10

2.If two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from an

urn containing 3 red balls and 5 blue balls. If the value of the random
A B C D
variable represents the number of red balls. How many outcomes
are possible ?
A.8 B. 6 C. 4 D. 3
 3.Which of the following cannot be the value of probability of the
random variable ?
A B C D
A. 1.01 B. 0 C. 1/4 D. ½

4.Which of the following can serve as the values of a probability

distribution ?
A B C D
A. P(1) = 0.42, P2) = 0.31, P(3)= 0.37
C. P(1) = 9/14, P2) = 5/14, P(3)= 1/14
B. P(1) = 0.08, P2) = 0.12, P(3)= 0.83
D. P(1) = 10/33, P2) = 1/3, P(3)= 12/33

X
5.If P(X)= , what are the possible values of X for it to be a
8
A B C D probability distribution?
A.0,2,3,4 B.0,1,2,3 C. 1,3,4 D.1,2,3