FEMALE GENITAL MUTILATION/CUTTING:

What might the future hold?

©UNICEF/NYHQ2013-0402/Asselin
The mutilation or cutting of female genitals, By 2050, nearly 1 in 3 births worldwide will occur in the
also known as FGM/C, has been practised 29 countries in Africa and the Middle East where FGM/C
for centuries among population groups in is concentrated, and nearly 500 million more girls and
Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The practice women will be living in these countries than there are today.
is also found in pockets of Europe and North
In Somalia alone, where FGM/C prevalence stands at 98
America, which have been destinations for
per cent, the number of girls and women will more than
migrants from countries where the cutting of
girls is a tradition. Today FGM/C is recognized double. In Mali, where prevalence is 89 per cent, the female
as a human rights violation and is one of population will nearly triple.
many manifestations of gender inequality.
In addition to excruciating pain, cutting can
cause girls to bleed profusely. It may also lead
to infections, including HIV, since typically the
same unsterilized blade is used for all girls
being cut. Other risks include infertility and
The number and global share of girls born in the 29
complications during childbirth. Directly or countries in Africa and the Middle East where FGM/C
indirectly, FGM/C can lead to death. is concentrated will continue to increase

The last 25 years have seen a surge in

activities to bring about an end to FGM/C.
This has been accompanied by extensive 1950
data collection efforts to better understand the
practice and assess progress to eliminate it.

This is what the data tell us.

1960
9% of all girls 50 years ago
were born in the 29 countries,
Overall, the chance that a girl will be cut today
is about one third lower than it was around 1970 or 14,000 per day
three decades ago. Still, the pace of change is
uneven, both within and among countries. The
decline is particularly striking in some very- 1980
low-prevalence countries including Benin,
Cameroon, Ghana and Togo. Among countries
with higher prevalence, the most dramatic 1990
reductions in the practice of FGM/C have been
found in Kenya and the United Republic of
Tanzania. Thirty years ago, prevalence levels 2000
21% of all girls today
among adolescents in these two countries are born in the 29 countries,
were three times higher than they are today.
In the Central African Republic, Iraq, Liberia
2010 or 39,000 per day
and Nigeria, prevalence has dropped by as
much as half.
2020
In other countries, however, FGM/C remains
almost universal. This is true for Djibouti,
Egypt, Guinea and Somalia, where the 2030
practice continues to affect more than 90 per
cent of the female population. Even in some
lower-prevalence countries such as Chad, 2040
Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, no noticeable
decline has been found.
2050 31% of all girls in 2050
Despite overall progress, if action against will be born in the 29 countries,
FGM/C is not accelerated, as many as 30
million more girls alive today may be cut in
or 57,000 per day
the next decade alone. And this number will
continue to grow as the population of girls in
affected countries rises.
 If there is no reduction in the practice between now and cut will continue to increase due to population growth. If
2050, the number of girls cut each year will grow from nothing is done, the number of girls and women affected
3.6 million in 2013 to 6.6 million in 2050. But if the rate of will grow from 133 million today to 325 million in 2050.
progress achieved over the last 30 years is maintained, the However, if the progress made so far is sustained, the
number of girls affected annually will go from 3.6 million number will grow from 133 million to 196 million in 2050,
today to 4.1 million in 2050. and almost 130 million girls will be spared this grave assault
In either scenario, the total number of girls and women to their human rights.

A growing population in the 29 countries means the number of girls and women cut will increase,
even if prevalence levels decline

Total female population

Number of girls and women who will undergo FGM/C if prevalence remains at today's levels
844 million
Number of girls and women who will undergo FGM/C if observed decline continues

394 million

325 million

196 million
133 million

Today 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

While the proportion of girls aged 15 to 19 who undergo FGM/C may continue to decline, their absolute
numbers will increase

52% 26 million
Percentage of girls who
have been cut Additional number of girls who are
expected to be cut if prevalence
remains at today's levels
18 million

Percentage of girls who are expected

13 million to be cut if observed decline continues
22%

8 million
Number of girls who Number of girls who are expected to
have been cut be cut if observed decline continues

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
 But the future looks different depending on where a girl lives. end of this decade, and with minimal acceleration the practice
In Ghana, for example, the prevalence of FGM/C among girls could be eliminated within a generation. In contrast to Ghana
aged 15 to 19 years is now 2 per cent, one quarter of what it and Kenya, some countries are not on track to eliminate the
was 30 years ago. At the current rate of progress, the practice practice without substantial acceleration. This includes both
in that country will be virtually eliminated before 2030. In countries in which the practice has stayed nearly universal
Kenya, half of adolescent girls were subjected to cutting 30 over time as well as countries with moderate prevalence
years ago. The figure could be as low as 10 per cent by the that have made little or no progress.

Eliminating FGM/C by 2030 is within reach for some ...while for others, it will require major
countries... acceleration
Kenya Somalia
100 Central African Republic 100 Mali
United Republic of Tanzania Burkina Faso
90 90
Percentage of girls aged 15 to 19 years udergoing FGM/C

Percentage of girls aged 15 to 19 years udergoing FGM/C

Benin Gambia
Ghana Guinea-Bissau
80 80
Cameroon Senegal
70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

The example of Kenya shows it is possible In Mali, consistently high prevalence coupled
to offset population growth with steadily with a rapidly growing population means
decreasing prevalence millions more girls will be subjected to FGM/C

5,000,000 Percentage of girls aged 15 to 19 2,500,000

Population of girls aged 15 to 19 years 90% years undergoing FGM/C 87%
Number of girls aged 15 to 19 years
4,000,000 undergoing FGM/C 2,000,000

3,000,000 1,500,000
Number of girls aged 15 to 19 years
undergoing FGM/C
2,000,000 1,000,000

1,000,000 500,000

0 0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

1980
1985

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
What is the path moving forward? When attitudes towards These data provide clues about how the practice can be
FGM/C were explored in household surveys, it was found eliminated. If public dialogues can be initiated, people may
that two thirds of women and almost two thirds of men begin to see that social expectations about the practice
living in the 29 countries think that the cutting of girls are no longer valid. Finding ways to make hidden attitudes
should stop. Even within practising communities, in almost favouring the abandonment of FGM/C more visible and
all of the countries surveyed, the share of girls and women opening the practice up to public scrutiny in a respectful
who support the practice is substantially lower than the manner, as is being done in many programmes throughout
share who have been cut. Africa, can provide the spark for community-wide change.

Two out of three people living in the 29 countries think the practice should stop

Total female population Total male population

aged 15 to 49 years aged 15 to 49 years
187 million 189 million

Those who think

Those who think
FGM/C should stop
FGM/C should stop
123 million or 66 per cent
114 million or 60 per cent

Even in countries where a majority of girls and women have undergone FGM/C, the level of support is
lower than the prevalence level
Percentage of girls and women aged 15 to 49 years who have undergone FGM/C, in countries with an FGM/C prevalence above 50 per cent
Percentage of girls and women aged 15 to 49 years who have heard about FGM/C and think the practice should continue

Somalia
Guinea
Djibouti
Egypt

Mali
Sierra Leone
Sudan
Eritrea
Gambia
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Mauritania
Liberia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Data sources: UNICEF global databases, 2014, based on Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) and other nationally
representative surveys, 1997-2013. Population data are from: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population
Prospects: The 2012 revision, CD-ROM edition, United Nations, New York, 2013.
Notes: Data presented in this brochure cover the 29 countries in Africa and the Middle East where FGM/C is concentrated and for which nationally representative
data are available. The practice is also found in countries including Colombia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, parts of Indonesia and Malaysia
and pockets of Europe and North America, but reliable data on the magnitude of the phenomenon in these other contexts are largely unavailable.
Suggested citation: United Nations Children’s Fund, Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting: What might the future hold?, UNICEF, New York, 2014.
 ©MLAS 2010 UNICEF

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