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Power System Planning 10EE761

UNIT 5&6
Power Supply Reliability:

 The term reliability is broad in meaning. In general, reliability designates

the abilityof a system to perform its assigned function, where past experience helps to
form advance estimates of future performance.

 Reliability can be measured through the mathematical concept of

probability byidentifying the probability of successful performance with the degree of
reliability.Generally, a device or system is said to perform satisfactorily if it does not fail
duringthe time of service. On the other hand, a broad range of devices are expected to
undergofailures, be repaired and then returned to service during their entire useful life.

 In this case a more appropriate measure of reliability is the availability of

the device,which is defined as follows:

 The indices used in reliability evaluation are probabilistic and,

consequently, theydo not provide exact predictions. They state averages of past events
and chances offuture ones by means of most frequent values and long-run averages. This
informationshould be complemented with other economic and policy considerations for
decision-making in planning, design and operation. The function of an electric power
system
 is to provide electricity to its customers efficiently and with a reasonable
assurance of continuity and quality.

 The task of achieving economic efficiency is assigned to system operators

or competitive markets, depending on the type of industry structure adopted. On the other
hand, the quality of the service is evaluated by the extent to which the supply of
electricity is available to customers at a usable voltage and frequency. The reliability of
power supply is, therefore, related to the probability of providing customers with
continuous service and with a voltage and frequency within prescribed ranges around the
nominal values.

Load management:
 Load management, also known as demand side management (DSM), is the process
of balancing the supply of electricity on the network with the electrical load by adjusting
or controlling the load rather than the power station output.
 This can be achieved by direct intervention of the utility in real time, by the use of
frequency sensitive relays triggering circuit breakers (ripple control), by time clocks, or
by using special tariffs to influence consumer behavior.
 Load management allows utilities to reduce demand for electricity during peak usage
times, which can, in turn, reduce costs by eliminating the need for peaking power plants.
In addition, peaking power plants also often require hours to bring on-line, presenting
challenges should a plant go off-line unexpectedly.

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 Load management can also help reduce harmful emissions, since peaking plants or
backup generators are often dirtier and less efficient than base load power plants. New
load-management technologies are constantly under development — both by private
industryand public entities.

Load Prediction:

Electric load forecasting is the process used to forecast future electric load, given
historical load and weather information and current and forecasted weather information. In the
past few decades, several models have been developed to forecast electric load more
accurately. Load forecasting can be divided into three major categories:
 Long-term electric load forecasting, used to supply electric utility company
management with prediction of future needs for expansion, equipment
purchases, or staff hiring
 Medium-term forecasting, used for the purpose of scheduling fuel supplies and
unit maintenance
 Short-term forecasting, used to supply necessary information for the system
management of day-to-day operations and unit commitment.

Reactive Power balance:

The balance for the reactive power in a whole- or a part of a system is the next:
ΣQE+QI=ΣQF+QH, where:
ΣQE is the amount of the reactive power from the power plants QI is the balance of the
imported reactive power flows (incoming is the positive) ΣQF is the amount of the substations
reactive power consumptions QH is the amount of the system elements reactive power
consumptions (wires, cables, transformers, reactors, static compensators, etc.). The reactive
power flows from the capacitors and overexcited generators called reactive power production,
the under excited generators and inductances reactive power called reactive power
consumption. The reactive power is positive, if the current is delaying to the voltage, while the
active power is positive compared to the power flows on an arbitrary system element S=P+jQ.
These principles considers to the high/middle voltage level systems, but there is no reason to
not to use in micro/smart grid systems as well.

Online power flow studies:

In power engineering, the power-flow study, also known as load-flow study, is an
important tool involving numerical analysis applied to a power system. A power-flow study
usually uses simplified notation such as a one-line diagram and per-unit system, and focuses on
various forms of AC power (i.e.: voltages, voltage angles, real power and reactive power). It
analyzes the power systems in normal steady-state operation. A number of software
implementations of power-flow studies exist.

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 Many software implementations perform other types of analysis, such as short-

circuit fault analysis, stability studies (transient & steady-state), unit commitment
and economic dispatch. In particular, some programs use linear programming to find
the optimal power flow, the conditions which give the lowest cost per kilowatt
hour delivered.
 Power-flow or load-flow studies are important for planning future expansion of power
systems as well as in determining the best operation of existing systems. The principal
information obtained from the power-flow study is the magnitude and phase angle of the
voltage at each bus, and the real and reactive power flowing in each line.
 Commercial power systems are usually too large to allow for hand solution of the power
flow. Special purpose network analyzers were built between 1929 and the early 1960s to
provide laboratory models of power systems; large-scale digital computers replaced the
analog methods.
 Newton-Raphson method is the most widely accepted load flow solution algorithm.
However LU factorization remains a computationally challenging task to meet the real-
time needs of the power system.
 The application of very fast multifrontal direct linear solvers for solving the linear system
sub-problem of power system real-time load flow analysis by utilizing the state-of-the-art
algorithms for ordering and preprocessing.
 Additionally the unsymmetrical multifrontal method for LU factorization and highly
optimized Intel Math Kernel Library BLAS has been used. Two state-of-the-art
multifrontal algorithms for unsymmetrical matrices namely UMFPACK V5.2.0 and
sequential MUMPS 4.8.3 (―Multifrontal Massively Parallel Solver‖) are customized for
the AC power system Newton-Raphson based load flow analysis.
 The multifrontal solvers are compared against the state-of-the-art sparse Gaussian
Elimination based HSL sparse solver MA48. This study evaluates the performance of
above multifrontal solvers in terms of number of factors, computational time, number of
floating-point operations and memory, in the context of load flow solution on nine
systems including very large real power systems.
 The results of the performance evaluation are reported. The proposed method achieves
significant reduction in computational time.
State Estimation:
State estimators allow the calculation of these variables of interest with high confidence
despite measurements that are corrupted by noise measurements that may be missing or grossly
Inaccurate.

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Objectives:
 To provide a view of real-time power system conditions
 Real-time data primarily come from SCADASE supplements SCADA data: filter, fill,
smooth.
 To provide a consistent representation for power system security analysis
 On-line dispatcher power flow
 Contingency Analysis
 Load Frequency Control
 To provide diagnostics for modeling & maintenance

Computerized management:

Research shows that personal computers (PC) are not being actively used during the vast
majority of the time that they are kept on. It is estimated that an average PC is in use 4 hours
each work day and idle for another 5.5 hours. It's also estimated that some 30-40 percent of the
US's work PCs are left running at night and on weekends.

Office equipment is the fastest growing electricity load in the commercial sector.
Computer systems are believed to account for 10 percent or more of commercial electricity
consumption already. Since computer systems generate waste heat, they also increase the
amount of electricity necessary to cool office spaces.

For the Medical Center, we estimate the savings from PC power management to be
hundreds of thousands of dollars annually, even without factoring in increased office cooling
costs. Considerable savings are also possible from easing wear-and-tear on the computers
themselves.

Power System Simulator:

Power system simulation models are a class of computer simulation programs that focus on the
operation of electrical power systems. These computer programs are used in a wide range of
planning and operational situations including:

1. Long-term generation and transmission expansion planning

2. Short-term operational simulations
3. Market analysis (e.g. price forecasting)
These programs typically make use of mathematical optimization techniques such linear
programming, quadratic programming, and mixed integer programming.
Key elements of power systems that are modeled include:

1. Load flow (power flow study)

2. Short circuit

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3. Transient stability
4. Optimal dispatch of generating units (unit commitment)
5. Transmission (optimal power flow)

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