PROBABILITY : “PROBABILITY IS A MEASURE

OF CERTAINTY’’
OR
THE WORD PROBABILITY MEANS THE
POSSIBILITY OR CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE OF AN
EVENT.
THE THEORY OF PROB. , WE ASSIGN A
NUMERICAL VALUE TO THE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY.
The classical Concept : If there are m equally likely
possibilities , of which one must occur and s are
regarded as favorable, or as a success then the
probability of a success is given by s/m .
Prob. of an event= No. of outcomes favorable to the even n(E) /
Total No. of outcomes n(S).
SOME BASIC TERMS & THEIR DEFINITIONS :
 Random Experiment : If a experiment is repeated
under identical conditions and the outcomes of that
exp. are not same every time but each outcome is one
of the several possible outcomes , then it is known as
“Random Experiment”. i.e. It is not possible to predict
the outcome in advance .
 Sample Space : “The set of all possible outcomes of a
random Experiment” . It is denoted by S .
 Event : A subset of a sample space .

 Sure Event or Certain Event :Which is certain to

happen. Or “whose Prob. is 1 .
 Impossible Event : The empty set is called an
impossible event . Or Event that can never be happen.
its Prob. is 0 .
SOME BASIC TERMS & THEIR DEFINITIONS :
 A complete set of cards (52) is called a pack or deck .

 Pack of cards includes :- four suits as

Spades (13) , Clubs (13) , Hearts (13) , Diamond (13) .

 Face Cards 12 :- King (4) , Queen (4) , Jack (4) .

 Ace card : 4

 A standard die have Six Faces : 1,2,3,4,5,6

 A coin have two Faces : head , tail

 Equally Likely Events : Two outcomes are said to be equally likely

if one of them cannot be expected to occur in preference to the other .
SOME BASIC TERMS & THEIR DEFINITIONS :
 Mutually Exclusive Events : If two or more events
have no outcome in common (i.e. they can not occur
simultaneously ) ,then they are said to be mutually
exclusive events.
i.e. A & B are Mutually Exclusive : A∩B =Ф
 Exhaustive Events : Two or more events are said to be
Exhaustive events if their union is equal to the sample
space of the experiment .
 Axiomatic Approach of Probability : Let S be any
sample space of a random experiment . The Prob. P is
a real valued function whose domain is power set of S
and range is the interval [0 1 ] satisfying :
1. For any event E , we have P(E) ≥0
2. P(S)=1
3. If E & F are mutually exclusive then
P(EUF)=P(E)+P(F)
COUNTING METHODS : COMBINATION & PERMUTATION
 The product of first n natural no. is called “n
factorial” . It is denoted by n!
 0! =1 & n!=n. (n-1)!
 Fundamental Principle of Counting (Multiple Rule ):
If an event can occur in m different ways , 2nd event
can occur in n different ways , 3rd event can occur in
p different ways …… , then all events can occur in
m*n*p*….. ways. (No. of events must be finite)
 Addition Principle: I event OR II event
If some mutually exclusive event can occur in
m ,n ,p ,….. Times , then at least one event can occur
in (m+n+p+….) ways .
# Summary of Laws : If you find that there is “AND”
then you multiply the cases.
If you find that there is “OR” then you ADD the
cases.
COUNTING METHODS : COMBINATION & PERMUTATION

 Permutation : Selection + Order

 The meaning of permutation is the Arrangement of Objects.
𝑛!
 The term 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = = P (n,r)
𝑛−𝑟 !
 The term 𝑛𝑃𝑟 ensures the following conditions: (1) Among
the all n things there is no repetition and the objects must be
distinct. (2) There is no repition in the
arrangement also. (3) There should not be any restriction on
any place in the arrangement.
 Combination : Selection
 The Different groups or selections , which can be made out of a
given number of objects by picking up some or all at a time ,
irrespective of their arrangements, is called a combination.
𝑛!
 The term 𝑛𝐶 𝑟 = = C (n,r)
𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !

 Circular Permutation of n things = (n-1) !

PROBABILITY : BASIC HANDLES
𝑛(𝐸)
 P(E)=
𝑛(𝑆)

 p+q=1 OR P(𝐸 )=1-P(E) OR 0 ≤p≤ 1 & 0 ≤q≤ 1

 Addition theorem : P(A 𝐵) = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝐵)

 P(A 𝐵) = 𝑃 𝐴 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝐵)

 P(𝐴 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝐵 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝐵)

 P(𝐴 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝐵 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴𝑈𝐵)

 P(𝐴 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
INDEPENDENT EVENTS & CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY :
 Independent Events: Two Events are said to be independent
events if probability of occurrence or non occurrence of one does
not affect the probability of occurrence or non occurrence of the
other. i.e.
P(A 𝑩) = 𝑷 𝑨 𝑷 𝑩
# If two events are independent , then their
complement events are also independent. i.e.
P(𝑨 𝑩 ) = 𝑷 𝑨 𝑷 𝑩
o Conditional Probability : Occurrence of event A affects the
probability of the event B . i.e.
Prob. of event A as Conditional Prob. of A given that B
has already occurred .
# P(A/B) denotes the prob. of occurrence of A given that B has already
occurred.
#P(B/A) denotes the prob. of occurrence of B given that A has already
occurred.
𝑷(𝑨 𝑩) 𝑷(𝑨 𝑩)
** P(A/B)= similarly P(B/A)=
𝑷(𝑩) 𝑷(𝑨)
SOME SET THEORY OPERATIONS: VENN DIAGRAM
NUMERICAL PROBLEMS :
 Ex.1: Probability of solving a problem of Mathematics for A & B are
1/3 and 1/5 . If both try the problem , find the probability that
problem will be solved. Ans. 7/15

 EX.2: The bag A Contains 3 white and 2 black balls, while the
bag B contains 2 white and 5 black balls. One of the bag is
chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. What is the
probability of selecting a white ball? Ans. ½(3/5 +2/7) =31/70

O EX.3: Find the probability of getting 53 Sundays in a

(i) Ordinary year (ii) Leap year Ans. (i) 1/7 (ii)2/7

O EX4: The probability of hitting a target by A , B and C are 3/5 , 3/4

and 1/3 respectively . If all three hits the target
simultaneously , then find the probability of hitting the
target by (i)at least two of them (ii)target will be shoted
Ans. (i)3/5 (ii) 14/15
NUMERICAL PROBLEMS :CONTD…
 EX.5: Three critics select “Amitabh Bachchan” as the
best actor for the film “PINK” . Odds in favour of him
are 5:2 , 4:3 , 3:4 respectively for the three critics .
Find the probability that the majority is in favour of
“Bachchan Shab” . Ans. 209/343
 EX.6: There are 20 tickets numbered from 1 to 25 . A
ticket is drawn at random . Find the probability that
the number of that ticket is either a multiple of 2 or
multiple of 3 . Ans. 16/25
 EX.7: What is the probability that in a group of (i) 2
people , both will have same birthday (ii) 3 people , at
least two will have the same birthday.
Ans. (i)1/365 (ii) 1093/(365*365)
# (i) First person have a choice of 365days but second person has only one choice (only
that one day when first boy was born) =(365/365)*1/365
(ii) Req. cases are : 2 same bday cases or 3 same bday i.e. P(ABC+ABC+ABC+ABC)
=(365/365)(1/365)(364/365)…repeatedly . ** red colour means not that**
NUMERICAL PROBLEMS :CONTD…….
 EX.8: In a town of 6000 people , 1200 are over 50 years
old and 2000 are females. It is known that 30% of the
females are over 50 years. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen individual from the town is either
female or over 50 years. Ans. 13/30
 EX.9: A pair of dice is thrown once. Find the probability
that neither a doublet nor a total of 10 will appear.
Ans. 7/9 ; P(𝑨 𝑩 )
 EX.10: A speak truth 60% cases and B in 70% cases. In what
percentages of cases are they likely to (i) contradict each other in
stating the same fact ? (ii) agree each other in same fact ?
Ans.(i)46% (ii)54%
 EX.11: A candidate is called for an interview by three companies.
For the first company , there are 12 candidates and for second
,there are 15 candidates and for third , there are 10 candidates.
What are the chances of his getting at least one of the companies?
Ans. 0.23
NUMERICAL PROBLEMS :CONTD………..
 EX.12: A candidate takes in examination in four subjects
α,β, , .He estimates his chance of passing in α as 4/5 , in β as
3/4 , in as 5/6 and in as 2/3. To qualify he must pass in α
and at least two other subjects . What is the probability that
he qualifies ? Ans. 61/90
 EX.13: A husband and wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in
the same post . The probability of husband’s selection is 1/7 and that of
wife’s selection is 1/5 . What is the probability that (i) both of them will
be selected (ii) Only one of them will be selected (iii) None of them will
be selected . Ans. (i)1/35 (ii) 2/7 (iii)24/35
 EX.14: Mother , father and son line up at random for a family picture.
Determine P(E/F) , where E: son at one end and F: father in the middle.
Ans. 1
 EX.15: Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a
girl. If a family has two children, what is the conditional probability
that both are girl given that : (i) at least one is a girl (ii) younger child
is a girl ? Ans. 1/2
MODULE 1: (3.1 , 3.3-3.5) ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY
“MILLER & FREUND’S”
Sample Spaces, Counting , Probability ,
Axioms of Probability , Some Elementary Theorem

Q.3.22 If among n objects k are alike and the others

are all distinct, the number of permutations of
these n objects taken all together is n!/k!
(a)How many permutations are there of the
letters of the word CLASS ?
(b)In how many ways can the television director
of Exercise 3.21 fill the 6 time slots allocated
to commercials, if there are 4 different
commercials , of which a given one is to be
shown 3 times while each of the others is to be
shown once ?
Solution:(a) Total Permutations = 5!/2!=60.
(b) There are 6 commercials , 3 of which are
alike. Thus there are 6!/3!=120 ways to
fill the time slots .
 Q.3.25 A carton of 12 rechargeable batteries contain
one that is defective . In how many ways can an
inspector choose 3 of the batteries and
(a) get that one that is defective;
(b) not get the one that is defective ?
Solution: There are C(12,3)=220 ways to draw the three
rechargeable batteries . There are
C(11,3)=165 ways to draw none are
defective.
(a) The no. of ways to get the one that is
defective is 220-165=55.
(b)There are 165 ways not to get the one
that is defective.
 Q.3.35 An experiment has the four possible mutually
exclusive outcomes A,B,C and D . Check whether the
following assignments of probability are
permissible:
(a) P(A)=0.38 , P(B)=0.16 , P(C)=0.11 , P(D)=0.35
(b) P(A)=0.31 , P(B)=0.27 , P(C)=0.28 , P(D)=0.16
(c) P(A)=0.32 , P(B)=0.27 , P(C)=-0.06 , P(D)=0.47
(d) P(A)=1/2 , P(B)=1/4 , P(C)=1/8 , P(D)=1/16 .
(e) P(A)=5/18 , P(B)=1/6 , P(C)=1/3 , P(D)=2/9 .

Solution: (a) Yes , P(A+P(B+P(C)+P(D)=1

(b) No , P(A+P(B+P(C)+P(D)=1.02>1 .
(c) No, since P(C)=-0.06 (Negative )
(d) No , P(A+P(B+P(C)+P(D)=15/16<1
(e) Yes , P(A+P(B+P(C)+P(D)=1
 Q.3.39 Refer to parts (c) and (d)of exercise 3.13
to show that
(a) P(A 𝑩) < 𝑷 𝑨
(b) P(A 𝑩) > 𝑷 𝑨
Solution:(a)(A∩ 𝑩) ∪ (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑪 ) = 𝑨
also A∩ 𝑩 and 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑪 are disjoint sets.
Thus
P{(A∩ 𝑩) ∪ (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑪 )} = 𝐏(A ∩ 𝑩)+P 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑪
= P(A) hence proved.
(b)Combining (d)& (c)of 3.13 as
A∪ 𝑩 = 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∪ 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑪 ∪ 𝑨𝑪 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑨 ∪(A∩ 𝑩)
but A & A ∩ 𝑩 ARE DISJOINT
Thus P(A ∪B)=P(A)+P(A∩ 𝑩)
since P(A ∩ 𝑩) ≥ 𝟎
we have proved that P(A 𝑩) > 𝑷 𝑨
hence proved.
 Q.3.51 If the probability of event A is p , then
the odds that it will occur are given by the ratio
of p to 1-p . Odds are usually given as a ration of
two positive integers having no common factor, and
if an event is more likely not to occur than to
occur , it is customary to give the odds that it
will not occur rather than the odds that it will
occur . What are the odds for or against the
occurrence of an event if its probability is
(a) 4/7 (b)0.05 (c) 0.80 ?
Solution: (a)the odds for are (4/7)/(3/7)=4 to 3 .
(b)the odds against are 0.95/0.05=19 to 1
against.
(c)the odds for are 0.80/0.20= 4 to 1 .

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That was Up to 3.5
MODULE 1: (3.6,3.7) CONDITIONAL PROB. & BAYES' THEOREM
“MILLER & FREUND’S”
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 Q.3.61 Prove that P(A/B)=P(A) IMPLIES THAT

P(B/A)=P(B) provided that P(A)≠ 𝟎 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷 𝑩 ≠ 𝟎.
Solution:
P(A/B)=P(A∩ 𝑩)/𝑷(𝑩) 𝒃𝒚 𝒅𝒆𝒇. 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚.
Thus P(A/B)=P(A) implies that
P(A∩ 𝑩)/𝑷(𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒊𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒆𝒔
P(A∩ 𝑩)/𝑷(𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑩) since P(A)≠ 𝟎 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷 𝑩 ≠ 𝟎.
Thus P(B/A)=P(B)
 Q.3.70 (b) In a certain city during the month of
may, the probability that a rainy day will be
followed by another day is 0.80 and the
probability that a sunny day will be followed
by rainy day is 0.60.assuming that each day is
classified as being either rainy or sunny and
that the weather on any given day depends only
on the weather the day before, find the
probability that in the given city in a rainy
day in MAY is followed by two more rainy days ,
then a sunny day, and finally another rainy
day.
Solution: P(𝑹𝟐 𝑹𝟑 𝑺𝟒 𝑹𝟓 / 𝑹𝟏 ) = . 𝟖 . 𝟖 𝟏−. 𝟖 . 𝟔 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔𝟖
𝑹𝒊 means it rained day on i and 𝑺𝒊 means it
sunny day on i.
 Q.3.78 Two firms V and W consider on a road bidding
job, which may or may not be awarded depending
on the amount of the bids . Firm V submits a
bid and the probability is ¾ that it will get
the job provided firm W does not bid. The
probability is 3/4 that W will bid, if it does,
the probability that V will get the job is only
1/3.
(a) What is the Probability that V will get the
job.
(b) If V get the job , what is the probability
that W did not bid ?
Solution: (a)
P(V get the job)=(3/4).(1/3)+(1/4).(3/4)=0.4375
(b)P(W did not bid / V gets job )
=P(W did not bid and V get job)/P(V gets job)
=(1/4)(3/4)/(.437)=0.4286 .

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That was 3.6 & 3.7