CONTENT

 Prior Knowledge

 Real Life Application

 Probability – Definition

 Terms related with the Probability

 Types of Events

 Exercise 15.1

 Summary of the Chapter

 Recall the Previous Concepts
Q.No.1] Give some examples where we use this Probability
Concepts?

Q.No.2] What is mean by the word Probability ?

Q.No.3] How you define the value of the probability

numerically ?
 Some Real Life Examples

 1] It will probably rain today.

 2] Most probably, Soham will achieve outstanding grade in the Board Exam.

 3] Chances are high that the prices of petrol will go up.

 4] There is 90 percent chance that India will find Vaccine on Covid-19 disease.

 5] I doubt that Mayur will stand first in the exam.

 PROBABILITY
Probability is a measure of uncertainty of various
phenomenon.

We can find the probability on the basis of

observations and collected data. This is called
statistical approach of probability.
 Defining Probability Numerically

•   Probability of an any event is a number i.e.

The

It means that probability of any events is lies between Zero

(0) and One (1) but it never less than zero and greater than
one.
 Terms Related with the Probability
1] Random Experiment : An experiment is called random
experiment if it satisfies the following two conditions.

i) It has more than one possible outcome.

ii) It is not possible to predict the outcome in advance.

e.g. Tossing a coin

2] Sample Space : The set of all possible outcomes of a random
Experiment is called as Sample space. It is denoted by S.
3] Define Sample point : Elements of sample space are referred as
sample point.

e.g. Throwing a die

Then the sample space is S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } and sample points

are 1 to 6.
4] Event : A subset of the sample space is called an
Event.
e.g. Getting a Head when tossing a coin is an event.
i.e. S = { H,T }

Let A be an event of getting Head

A ={H}
n (A) = 1
 Types of Events
• ImpossibleEvent:If
1]   the probability of occurrence of an event is 0, it is called a
Impossible Event.
e.g. Throwing a die and getting a number is 7.
 The empty set is an impossible event.

2] Sure Event or Certain Event: If the probability of occurrence of an event is 1, it is called

a sure event.
e.g. Throwing a die and getting a number less than 7.

3] Simple Events
Any event consisting of a single point of the sample space is known as a simple event in
probability.
e.g. If S = {86 , 98 , 96 , 54 , 78} and E = {78} then E is a simple event.
4] Compound Events: Contrary to the simple event, if any event consists of
more than one single point of the sample space then such an event is called
a compound event.
e.g. If S = {6 ,7 ,9 ,5 ,8}, E1 = {6 ,5 }, E2 = {8 ,5 ,9 } then, E1 and E2 represent
two compound events.

5] Dependent Events: A dependent event can only occur if another event

occurs first.
e.g. If you park your vehicle illegally, you’re more likely to get a parking
ticket.

6] Independent Events: An event is deemed independent when it isn’t

connected to another event, or its probability of happening, or conversely,
of not happening.
e.g. Taking an Uber ride and getting a free meal at your favorite restaurant.
• Mutually
6]   Exclusive Events : If the occurrence of one event excludes the
occurrence of another event, such events are mutually exclusive events.
i.e. two events don’t have any common point.
e.g. If S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6} and E1, E2 are two events such that E1 consists of
numbers less than 3 and E2 consists of numbers greater than 4.
 So, E1 = {1,2} and E2 = {5,6}.
 Then, E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive.

7] Exhaustive Events : When two or more events form the sample space
collectively than it is known as collectively exhaustive events.
e.g. Consider S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Let A be the event of getting Even Number is A = { 2,4,6}
Let B be the event of getting Odd Number is B = { 1,3,5}
If we combine A and B i.e. = { 1,2,3,4,5,6} = S
Also i.e. Event A and B is called Mutually exclusive event.
 8] Complementary Events: For any event E1 there exists another event E1‘ which represents the
remaining elements of the sample space S.
E 1 = S − E1 ‘

e.g. If a dice is rolled then the sample space S is given as

S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 } and n(S)= 6.

If event E1 represents all the outcomes which is greater than 4,

then E1 = {5,6} and n(E1)=2

P(E1)=
= 1/3

and E1‘ = {1,2,3,4} and n(E1‘)=4

P(E1‘)=4/6
= 2/3

Thus E1‘ is the complement of the event E1.

Also, P(E1)+P(E1‘) = 1
1/3 + 2/3 = 1
Equally Likely Outcomes :
The outcomes of a sample space are called equally likely if all
of them have the same chances of occurring.
e.g.
 Playing Cards : 52

Black Cards : 26 Red Cards : 26

Each Suit Containing

1. Number card 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

2. One King Card
3. One Queen Card Face Card
4. One Jack Card
 Assignments
Class Work : Write down the basic terms and concepts
with understanding in your class work. i.e. From slide 4
to 14

Home work : Read and understand the concept of the

probability through NCERT text book and solve Q.No.
1) From exercise 15.1 in your home work book.

Note : CW and HW note book is same only but just give

the different headings with dates.
 Exercise 15.1
Q.No. 1]

Complete the following statements:

(i) Probability of an event E + Probability of the event ‘not E’ = ___________ .
(ii) The probability of an event that cannot happen is __________. Such an event is
called ________ .
(iii) The probability of an event that is certain to happen is _________ . Such an event is
called ________.
(iv) The sum of the probabilities of all the elementary events of an experiment is
__________ .
(v) The probability of an event is greater than or equal to and less than or equal to
__________.
Solution:

(i) Probability of an event E + Probability of the event ‘not E’ = 1.

(ii) The probability of an event that cannot happen is 0. Such an
event is called an impossible event.
(iii) The probability of an event that is certain to happen is 1. Such
an event is called a sure or certain event.
(iv) The sum of the probabilities of all the elementary events of an
experiment is 1.
(v) The probability of an event is greater than or equal to 0 and less
than or equal to 1.
Q.No.2]

Which of the following experiments have equally likely outcomes? Explain.

(i) A driver attempts to start a car. The car starts or does not start.

(ii) A player attempts to shoot a basketball. She/he shoots or misses the shot.

(iii) A trial is made to answer a true-false question. The answer is right or

wrong.

(iv) A baby is born. It is a boy or a girl.

Solution:

(i) This statement does not have equally likely outcomes as the car may or may
not start depending upon various factors like fuel, etc.

(ii) Even this statement does not have equally likely outcomes as the player may
shoot or miss the shot.

(iii) This statement has equally likely outcomes as it is known that the solution
is either right or wrong.

(iv) This statement also has equally likely outcomes as it is known that the
newly born baby can either be a boy or a girl.
Q.No.3]

Why is tossing a coin considered to be a fair way of deciding which team

should get the ball at the beginning of a football game?

Solution:

Tossing of a coin is a fair way of deciding because the number of possible

outcomes are only 2 i.e. either head or tail. Since these two outcomes are an

equally likely outcome, tossing is unpredictable and is considered to be

completely unbiased.
Q.No.4]

Which of the following cannot be the probability of an event?

(A) 2/3 (B) -1.5 (C) 15% (D) 0.7

Solution:
The probability of any event (E) always lies between 0 and 1 i.e. 0
≤ P(E) ≤ 1. So, from the above options, option (B) -1.5 cannot be
the probability of an event.
Q.No.5]

If P(E) = 0.05, what is the probability of ‘not E’?

Solution:

We know that,
P(E) + P(not E) = 1 It is given that,
P(E) = 0.05 So,
P(not E) = 1 - P(E) Or, P(not E) = 1 - 0.05
∴ P(not E) = 0.95
Q.No.6]

A bag contains lemon flavoured candies only. Malini takes out one candy without looking into
the bag. What is the probability that she takes out
(i) an orange flavoured candy?
(ii) a lemon flavoured candy?

Solution:

We know that the bag only contains lemon-flavoured candies. So, The no. of orange flavoured
candies = 0
∴ The probability of taking out orange flavoured candies = 0/1
=0

(ii) As there are only lemon flavoured candies,

P(lemon flavoured candies) = 1(or 100%)
Q.No.7]

It is given that in a group of 3 students, the probability of 2 students not having the same
birthday is 0.992. What is the probability that the 2 students have the same birthday?

Solution:

Let the event wherein 2 students having the same birthday be E

Given, P(E) = 0.992
We know,
P(E) + P(not E) = 1
Or, P(not E) = 1 – 0.992 = 0.008
∴ The probability that the 2 students have the same birthday is 0.008
Q.No.8]
A bag contains 3 red balls and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the bag. What is the probability
that the ball drawn is

(i) red? and (ii) not red?

Solution: The total number of balls = No. of red balls + No. of black balls
So, the total no. of balls = 5 + 3 = 8

We know that the probability of an event is the ratio between the no. of favourable outcomes and the total
number of outcomes.

i.e. P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)

(i) Probability of drawing red balls = P (red balls) = (no. of red balls/total no. of balls)
= 3/8
(ii) Probability of drawing black balls = P (black balls) = (no. of black balls/total no. of balls) =
5/8
Q.No.9]
A box contains 5 red marbles, 8 white marbles and 4 green marbles. One
marble is taken out of the box at random. What is the probability that the
marble taken out will be
(i) red? (ii) white? (iii) not green?

Solution: The Total no. of balls = 5 + 8 + 4 = 17

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)

(i) Total number of red balls = 5

P (red ball) = 5/17
= 0.29
(ii) Total number of white balls = 8
P (white ball) = 8/17
= 0.47

(iii) Total number of green balls = 4

P (green ball) = 4/17
= 0.23

∴ P (not green) = 1 - P (green ball)

= 1 - (4/7)
= 0.77
Q.No.10]
A piggy bank contains hundred 50p coins, fifty ₹1 coins, twenty ₹2 coins and ten ₹5
coins. If it is equally likely that one of the coins will fall out when the bank is turned
upside down, what is the probability that the coin

will be a 50 p coin? (ii) will not be a ₹5 coin?

Solution: Total no. of coins = 100 + 50 + 20 + 10 = 180

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)

(i) Total number of 50 p coin = 100

P (50 p coin) = 100/180
= 5/9
= 0.55
Q.No.11]
Gopi buys a fish from a shop for his aquarium. The shopkeeper takes out
one fish at random from a tank containing 5 male fish and 8 female fish (see
Fig. 15.4). What is the probability that the fish taken out is a male fish?

Solution:
The total number of fish in the tank = 5 + 8
= 13
Total number of male fish = 5
P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)
P (male fish) = 5/13
= 0.38
Q.No.12]
A game of chance consists of spinning an arrow which comes to rest
pointing at one of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 (see Fig. 15.5), and these
are equally likely outcomes. What is the probability that it will point at

(i) 8? (ii) an odd number? (iii) a number greater than 2?

(iv) a number less than 9?

Solution:
Total number of possible outcomes = 8
P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)
(i) Total number of favourable events (i.e. 8) = 1

∴ P (pointing at 8) = ⅛
= 0.125

(ii) Total number of odd numbers are 4 i.e. (1, 3, 5 and

7)

P (pointing at an odd number) = 4/8

=½
= 0.5
(iii) Total numbers greater than 2 is 6 i.e. (3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8)

P (pointing at a number greater than 4) = 6/8

=¾
= 0.75

(iv) Total numbers less than 9 are 8 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,

and 8)

P (pointing at a number less than 9) = 8/8

=1
Q.No.13]
A die is thrown once. Find the probability of getting
(i) a prime number (ii) a number lying between 2 and 6
(iii) an odd number.

Solution:
Total possible events when a dice is thrown = 6 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6)

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)

(i) Total number of prime numbers are 3 i.e. (2, 3 and 5)

P (getting a prime number) = 3/6
=½
= 0.5
(ii) Total numbers lying between 2 and 6 is 3 i.e.(3, 4 and 5)

P (getting a number between 2 and 6) = 3/6

=½
= 0.5

(iii) Total number of odd numbers are 3 i.e. (1, 3 and 5)

P (getting an odd number) = 3/6

=½
= 0.5
Q.No.14]
One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting
a king of red colour (ii) a face card (iii) a red face card
(iv) the jack of hearts (v) a spade (vi) the queen of diamonds

Solution:
Total number of possible outcomes = 52
P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)

(i) Total numbers of king of red colour = 2

P (getting a king of red colour) = 2/52

= 1/26
= 0.038
(ii) Total numbers of face cards = 12
P (getting a face card) = 12/52
= 3/13
= 0.23

(iii) Total numbers of red face cards = 6

P (getting a king of red colour) = 6/52
= 3/26
= 0.11

(iv) Total numbers of jack of hearts = 1

P (getting a king of red colour) = 1/52
= 0.019
(v) Total numbers of king of spade = 13

P (getting a king of red colour) = 13/52

=¼
= 0.25

(vi) Total numbers of queen of diamonds = 1

P (getting a king of red colour) = 1/52

= 0.019
Q.No.15]
Five cards the ten, jack, queen, king and ace of diamonds, are well-shuffled
with their face downwards. One card is then picked up at random.
(i) What is the probability that the card is the queen?
(ii) If the queen is drawn and put aside, what is the probability that the second
card picked up is
(a) an ace? (b) a queen?

Solution: Total numbers of cards = 5

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)
(i) Numbers of queen = 1
P (picking a queen) = ⅕
= 0.2
(ii) If the queen is drawn and put aside,
the total numbers of cards left is (5 - 4) = 4

(a) Total numbers of ace = 1

P (picking an ace) = ¼
= 0.25

(b) Total numbers of queen = 0

P (picking a queen) = 0/4
=0
Q.No.16]
12 defective pens are accidentally mixed with 132 good ones. It is not possible to just
look at a pen and tell whether or not it is defective. One pen is taken out at random
from this lot. Determine the probability that the pen taken out is a good one.

Solution: Numbers of pens = Numbers of defective pens + Numbers of good pens

∴ Total number of pens = 132 + 12
= 144 pens

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)

P(picking a good pen) = 132/144
= 11/12
= 0.916
Q.No.17]
(i) A lot of 20 bulbs contain 4 defective ones. One bulb is drawn at random from the
lot. What is the probability that this bulb is defective?
(ii) Suppose the bulb drawn in (i) is not defective and is not replaced. Now one bulb is
drawn at random from the rest. What is the probability that this bulb is not defective?
Solution:
(i) Numbers of defective bulbs = 4
The total numbers of bulbs = 20

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)

∴ Probability of getting a defective bulb = P (defective bulb)
= 4/20
=⅕
= 0.2
(ii)
Since 1 non-defective bulb is drawn, then the total numbers of
bulbs left are 19

So, the total numbers of events (or outcomes) = 19

Numbers of defective bulbs = 19 - 4

= 15

So,
the probability that the bulb is not defective = 15/19
= 0.789
•  
Q.No.18]
A box contains 90 discs which are numbered from 1 to 90. If one disc is drawn at
random from the box, find the probability that it bears
a two-digit number (ii) a perfect square number
(iii) a number divisible by 5.

Solution: The total numbers of discs = 50

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)
(i) Total number of discs having two digit numbers = 81
(1 to 9 are single digit numbers and so,
total 2 digit numbers are 90 - 9 = 81)
P (bearing a two-digit number) = 81/90
= 9/10
= 0.9
(ii) Total number of perfect square numbers are 9 i.e.
(1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49, 64 and 81)

P (getting a perfect square number) = 9/90

= 1/10
= 0.1

(iii) Total numbers which are divisible by 5 are 18 i.e.

(5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85 and 90)

P (getting a number divisible by 5) = 18/90

=⅕
= 0.2
Q.No.19]
A child has a die whose six faces show the letters as given below:
The die is thrown once. What is the probability of getting
(i) A? (ii) D?

Solution: The total number of possible outcomes (or events) = 6

P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)
(i) The total number of faces having A on it = 2
P (getting A) = 2/6
=⅓
= 0.33
(ii) The total number of faces having D on it = 1
P (getting D) = ⅙
= 0.166
Q.No.20]
Suppose you drop a die at random on the rectangular region shown in Fig. 15.6. What is the
probability that it will land inside the circle with diameter 1m?

Solution: First, calculate the area of the rectangle and the area of the circle.
Here, the area of the rectangle is the possible outcome and the area of the circle will
be the favourable outcome.

So,
the area of the rectangle = (3 × 2) sq.m.
= 6 sq.m.
and,
The area of the circle = πr2
= π(½)2 m2
= π/4 m2
= 0.78

∴ The probability that die will land inside the circle

= [(π/4)/6]
= π/24 or, 0.78/6
= 0.13
Q.No.21]
A lot consists of 144 ball pens of which 20 are defective and the others are good. Nuri
will buy a pen if it is good, but will not buy if it is defective. The shopkeeper draws one
pen at random and gives it to her. What is the probability that
(i) She will buy it? (ii) She will not buy it?

Solution: The total numbers of outcomes i.e. pens = 144

Given, numbers of defective pens = 20
∴ The numbers of non defective pens = 144 - 20
= 124
P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of outcomes)
(i) Total numbers events in which she will buy them = 124
So, P (buying) = 124/144
= 31/36
= 0.86
(ii) Total numbers events in which she will not buy them =
20
So,
P (not buying) = 20/144
= 5/36
= 0.138
Q.No.22. Refer to Example 13. (i) Complete the following table:

(ii) A student argues that ‘there are 11 possible outcomes 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12. Therefore, each
of them has a probability 1/11. Do you agree with this argument? Justify your Solution:.
Solution:
If 2 dices are thrown, the possible events are:
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6)
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6)
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6)
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }

So, the total numbers of events: 6 × 6 = 36

•(i)  It is given that to get the sum as 2,
the only possible outcomes = (1,1)
P (Sum 2) = 1/36

For getting the sum as 3,

the possible events (or outcomes) = E (sum 3) is (1,2) and (2,1)
So, P(sum 3) = 2/36
Similarly,
E (sum 4) = (1,3), (3,1), and (2,2)
So, P (sum 4) = 3/36
 E (sum 5) = (1,4), (4,1), (2,3), and (3,2)
So, P (sum 5) = 4/36

E (sum 6) = (1,5), (5,1), (2,4), (4,2), and (3,3)

So, P (sum 6) = 5/36

E (sum 7) = (1,6), (6,1), (5,2), (2,5), (4,3), and (3,4)

So, P (sum 7) = 6/36

E (sum 8) = (2,6), (6,2), (3,5), (5,3), and (4,4)

So, P (sum 8) = 5/36
 So, P (sum 9) = 4/36
E (sum 10) = (4,6), (6,4), and (5,5)
So, P (sum 10) = 3/36
E (sum 11) = (5,6), and (6,5)
So, P (sum 11) = 2/36
E (sum 12) = (6,6)
So, P (sum 12) = 1/36
So, the table will be as: Event:
Sum on 2 dice 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36
(ii) The argument is not correct as it is already justified in (i) that the
number of all possible outcomes is 36 and not 11.