Chapter 16 - Foreign Exchange Markets
Chapter 16 - Foreign Exchange Markets
1. Define foreign exchange market, foreign exchange rate, and foreign exchange
risk.
● Foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market (also known as forex, FX, or the
currency market) is an over-the-counter (OTC) global marketplace that
determines the exchange rate for currencies around the world.
Participants are able to buy, sell, exchange, and speculate on
currencies. Foreign exchange markets are made up of banks,forex
dealers, commercial companies, central banks, investment
management firms, hedge funds, retail forex dealers, and investors.
2. Restricted Currencies
3. Currency Peg
Exchange rates can also be different for the same country. In some
cases, there is an onshore rate and a rate. Generally, a more favorable
exchange rate can often be found within a country’s border versus outside
its borders. China is one major example of a country that has this rate
structure. Additionally, China's yuan is a currency that is controlled by the
government. Every day, the Chinese government sets a midpoint value for
the currency, allowing the yuan to trade in a band of 2% from the midpoint.
Exchange rates can have what is called a spot rate, or cash value,
which is the current market value. Alternatively, an exchange rate may
have a forward value, which is based on expectations for the currency to
rise or fall versus its spot price. Forward rate values may fluctuate due to
changes in expectations for future interest rates in one country versus
another. For example, let's say that traders have the view that the
eurozone will ease monetary policy versus the U.S. In this case, traders
could buy the dollar versus the euro, resulting in the value of the euro
falling.
6.Quotation
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exchangerate.asp
Foreign Exchange Risk
Foreign exchange risk refers to the losses that an international financial
transaction may incur due to currency fluctuations. Also known as currency risk,
FX risk and exchange-rate risk, it describes the possibility that an investment’s
value may decrease due to changes in the relative value of the involved
currencies. Investors may experience jurisdiction risk in the form of foreign
exchange risk.
Foreign exchange risk arises when a company engages in financial
transactions denominated in a currency other than the currency where that
company is based. Any appreciation/depreciation of the base currency or the
depreciation/appreciation of the denominated currency will affect the cash flows
emanating from that transaction. Foreign exchange risk can also affect investors,
who trade in international markets, and businesses engaged in the import/export
of products or services to multiple countries.
The proceeds of a closed trade, whether it's a profit or loss, will be
denominated in the foreign currency and will need to be converted back to the
investor's base currency. Fluctuations in the exchange rate could adversely affect
this conversion resulting in a lower than expected amount.
An import/export business exposes itself to foreign exchange risk by
having accounts payable and receivables affected by currency exchange rate.
This risk originates when a contract between two parties specifies exact prices
for goods or services, as well as delivery dates. If a currency’s value fluctuates
between when the contract is signed and the delivery date, it could cause a loss
for one of the parties.
This is the risk that a company faces when it's buying a product from a
company located in another country. The price of the product will be
denominated in the selling company's currency. If the selling company's
currency were to appreciate versus the buying company's currency then
the company doing the buying will have to make a larger payment in its
base currency to meet the contracted price.
2. Translation risk
3. Economic risk
Also called forecast risk, refers to when a company’s market value is
continuously impacted by an unavoidable exposure to currency
fluctuations.
Companies that are subject to FX risk can implement hedging strategies
to mitigate that risk. This usually involves forward contracts, options and other
exotic financial products and, if done properly, can protect the company from
unwanted foreign exchange moves.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/foreignexchangerisk.asp
Foreign exchange dates back to ancient times, when traders first began
exchanging coins from different countries. However, the foreign exchange itself is
the newest of the financial markets. In the last hundred years, the foreign exchange
has undergone some dramatic transformations. The Bretton Woods Agreement, set
up in 1944, remained intact until the early 1970s. Trading volume has increased
rapidly over time, especially after exchange rates were allowed to float freely in
1971. In 1971, the Bretton Woods Agreement was first tested because of
uncontrollable currency rate fluctuations, by 1973 the gold standard was abandoned
by president Richard Nixon, currencies were finally allowed to float freely.
Thereafter, the foreign exchange market quickly established itself as the financial
market. Before the year 1998, the foreign exchange market was only available to
larger entities trading currencies for commercial and investment purposes through
banks, now online currency trading platforms and the internet allow smaller financial
institutions and retail investors access a similar level of liquidity as the major foreign
exchange banks, by offering a gateway to the primary (Interbank) market.
http://www.scientificpapers.org/wp-
content/files/1120_Introduction_to_the_foreign_exchange_market.pdf ·
3. Enumerate ways that financial institutions can use to hedge foreign exchange risk.
Financial institutions can use foreign exchange derivatives to hedge their
exposure to foreign exchange risks.
❖ Popular foreign exchange derivatives
1. Forward contract is a customized derivative contract obligating
counterparties to buy (receive) or sell (deliver) an asset at a
specified price on a future date. Since the terms of the agreement
are customized when the contract is executed, a forward contract is
not subject to price fluctuations.
2. Currency Futures Contracts is a standardized contract that
specifies an amount of a particular currency to be exchanged on a
specified date and at a specified exchange rate. A firm can
purchase a futures contract to hedge payables in a foreign currency
by locking in the price at which it could purchase that specific
currency at a particular point in time.
3. Currency swap is an agreement that allows one currency to be
periodically swapped for another at specified exchange rates. It
essentially represents a series of forward contracts. Commercial
banks facilitate currency swaps by serving as the intermediary that
links two parties with opposite needs.
4. Currency option provides the right to purchase a particular
currency at a specified price (called the exercise price) within a
specified period. This type of option can be used to hedge future
cash payments denominated in a foreign currency. If the spot rate
remains below the exercise price, the option will not be exercised
because the firm could purchase the foreign currency at a lower
cost in the spot market. However, a fee (or a premium) must be
paid for options, so there is a cost to hedging with options even if
the options are not exercised.
10. Compute cross exchange rates given that three or more currencies are involved.
Because the denominator, a common currency (in this case the dollar), is
the same, you can cross- cancel it.
1 ÷ USD/JPY = JPY/USD
Once you’ve done this, line your quotes up and do the same as before,
dividing the first rate by the second:
An exchange rate system, also called a currency system, establishes the way in
which the exchange rate is determined, i.e., the value of the domestic currency with
respect to other currencies. In currency markets we can talk about the 2 types of
currency systems which are the fixed and floating exchange rate system.
Fixed also called “pegged” exchange rate system is when some currency may be
pegged to another currency or a unit of account. The government sets and maintains
the fixed currency with the help of its central bank. To maintain the rate, the central
bank needs to have a high level of foreign currency reserves which will be used to
ensure an appropriate money supply and fluctuation in the market. This has lower
exchange rate risk because of the fixed rate. Floating exchange rate is a constant
change of currency depending on the supply and demand of foreign exchange and has
higher risk because of the fluctuation. Foreign exchange markets determine the rate.
This system has two types; dirty float and freely floating system. Dirty float is when the
rate set by the market is subject to some government intervention. Central banks
intervene mainly to maintain order and stability. Freely floating system is completely free
from government intervention. At present the Philippines is implementing the floating
exchange rate.
14. Describe trading in foreign exchange and differentiate spot rates from forward rates.
Foreign exchange is a network of buyers and sellers, who transfer
currency between each other at an agreed price. This consists of a global
telecommunications network among the large commercial banks that serve as
financial intermediaries for such exchange. These banks are located in New
York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Zurich, and London. Foreign
exchange transactions at these banks have been increasing over time. At any
given time, the price at which banks will buy a currency (bid price) is slightly
lower than the price at which they will sell it (ask price). Like markets for other
commodities and securities, the market for foreign currencies is more efficient
because of financial intermediaries (commercial banks). Otherwise, individual
buyers and sellers of currency would be unable to identify counterparties to
accommodate their needs.
A spot rate is the quoted price for a unit of foreign currency to be delivered
“on the spot,” or within a very short period of time. For an instance £0.8425/$, is
a spot rate as of the close of business on July 25, 2005. A forward exchange
rate is the quoted price for a unit of foreign currency to be delivered at a specified
date in the future. If today were July 25, 2005, and we wanted to know how many
pounds we could expect to receive for our dollars on January 25, 2006, we would
look at the six-month forward rate, which was £0.5740/$. Note that a forward
exchange contract on July 25 would lock in this exchange rate, but no currency
would change hands until January 25, 2006. The spot rate on January 25 might
be quite different from £0.5740, in which case we would have a profit or a loss
on the forward purchase.
Or
F0 = S x (1 + ia / 1 + ib)
Where F is the forward exchange rate while S is the spot exchange rate. The
interest rates for Country A and Country B are represented by ia and ib
respectively.
Example:
Spot exchange rates between two currencies, the Great Britain Pounds (£) and
the United State Dollars ($) is given as below:
This means that the future exchange rate in a year’s time will be £0.771 for $1
instead of £0.8 for $1. As suggested before, because the interest rate of the UK is
lower, the value of the GBP will rise in comparison to the US that has a higher interest
rate.
So instead the spot exchange rate is $1.25 for every £1, in a year’s time, due to
interest rate differences, it will be $1.30 ($1 / £0.771) for every £1.
This means that the company must first convert the £10,000 to USD, and will
receive $12,500. This $12,500 will make the company an interest income of $1,500
($12,500 x 12%) once invested. Therefore, the company will receive a total of $14,000
($12,000 + $1,500) in one year. After the year, when the company converts it back to
GBP, it will receive approximately £10,800 ($14,000 x 0.771).
However, if the same money were invested in the UK, it would have yielded an
interest income of £800 (£10,000 x 8%). This would have made the total amount of
£10,800 (£10,000 + £800) at the end of the year.
This is what interest parity suggests. The difference in the interest rates of
the two countries was offset by the difference in the spot exchange rate and the
forward exchange rate of the currencies of the two countries in a year.
https://www.cfajournal.org/interest-rate-parity/
Example
Let's take the example of purchasing power parity between India and the US.
cupcakes for Rs.250 and remarked that cupcakes are quite cheaper in India. The
visitor claimed that on an average 25 such cupcakes cost $6. Based on the given
information calculate the purchasing power parity between the two countries.
Therefore, the purchasing power parity of India w.r.t US can be calculated as,
USD
= Rs.250 / $6
Therefore, the purchasing power parity ratio of the exchange for cupcakes is
USD1 = INR41.67.
Example
Let’s take another example to compute purchasing power parity between China
and the US. In January 2018, a McDonald’s Big Mac costs $5.28 in the US, while
the same Big Mac could be bought for $3.17 in China during the same period.
Based on the given information calculate the purchasing power parity between
The calculation of Cost of Big Mac in CNY will be, Cost of Big Mac in CNY = 3.17
Therefore, the purchasing power parity of China w.r.t US can be calculated as,
Purchasing power parity = Cost of Big Mac in CNY / Cost of Big Mac in USD
Therefore, the purchasing power parity ratio of the exchange for Big Mac is
USD1 = CNY4.06.
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/purchasing-power-parity-formula/
https://www.investopedia.com/updates/purchasing-power-parity-ppp/
19. Explain the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates and
how one affects the others.
● Inflation is closely related to interest rates, which can influence exchange rates.
Countries attempt to balance interest rates and inflation, but the interrelationship
between the two is complex and often difficult to manage. Low interest rates spur
consumer spending and economic growth, and generally positive influences on
currency value. If consumer spending increases to the point where demand
exceeds supply, inflation may ensue, which is not necessarily a bad outcome.
But low interest rates do not commonly attract foreign investment. Higher interest
rates tend to attract foreign investment, which is likely to increase the demand for
a country's currency.
● The ultimate determination of the value and exchange rate of a nation's currency
is the perceived desirability of holding that nation's currency. That perception is
influenced by a host of economic factors, such as the stability of a nation's
government and economy. Investors' first consideration in regard to currency,
before whatever profits they may realize, is the safety of holding cash assets in
the currency. If a country is perceived as politically or economically unstable, or if
there is any significant possibility of a sudden devaluation or other change in the
value of the country's currency, investors tend to shy away from the currency and
are reluctant to hold it for significant periods or in large amounts.
21. Describe multinational capital budgeting and recognize the additional risks
involved.
● Multinational capital budgeting, like traditional capital budgeting, focuses on cash
inflows and outflows associated with long-term investments. Multinational capital
budgeting techniques are used in foreign direct investment analysis.
● Operating a foreign market is a fascinating opportunity for a U.S hospitality
firm to engage in direct investment or market expansion. However, in spite
of being attractive, going into international markets can be fraught with a
number of unanticipated hindrances and risk. The major risk associated
with foreign capital budgeting can be viewed in three ways; exchange rate
fluctuation, political risk, and economic instability, specifically related to
inflation. These factors can be predominant obstacles in multinational
capital budgeting.
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