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DCF Valuation-B

Mr. OLX wants to evaluate Genco Ltd to buy a major stake. He collected financial information from annual reports and management. The valuation estimates Genco's value using DCF. Key inputs like growth rates, margins and balance sheet line items from 2017-2020 are provided. WACC is calculated as 11.99%. DCF is performed to estimate 2021-2024 cash flows and terminal value. The firm's equity value is estimated at Rs. 9,130.02 per share, slightly above the current market price of Rs. 25, indicating the firm is slightly overvalued.

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100% found this document useful (1 vote)
267 views11 pages

DCF Valuation-B

Mr. OLX wants to evaluate Genco Ltd to buy a major stake. He collected financial information from annual reports and management. The valuation estimates Genco's value using DCF. Key inputs like growth rates, margins and balance sheet line items from 2017-2020 are provided. WACC is calculated as 11.99%. DCF is performed to estimate 2021-2024 cash flows and terminal value. The firm's equity value is estimated at Rs. 9,130.02 per share, slightly above the current market price of Rs. 25, indicating the firm is slightly overvalued.

Uploaded by

Elsa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 11

Mr. OLX is interested to buy a major stake at Genco Ltd.

He would like to know the value of the firm


information. He collected the required information from the annual reports, from his interactions w
the future expectations in terms of percentages. Estimate the value of the firm and equity value of
technique.

Valuation Date: 1/7/2021


Share Price on Valuation Date: ₹ 25.00
Diluted Shares Outstanding 500.0

Long term growth rate 4.0%


Cost of Debt 5.2%
Tax Rate 40.0%
Cost of Equity 15.0%

2020E
Accounts Receivable Growth (%) 10.0%
Inventories Growth (%) 1.5%
Prepaid Expenses Growth (%) 19.6%
Accounts Payable Growth (%) 1.5%
Accrued Expenses Growth (%) 10.0%
Capital Expenditures Growth (%)
10.0%

Revenue Growth Rate (%)


10.0%
EBITDA Margin (%)
35.0%
EBIT Margin (%)
30.0%
D&A as a % of revenue
5.6%

Historical Balance sheet and Income statement key variables are given below
1
Income statement-key variables
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E
Revenue ₹ 6,600.00
₹ 5,300.00 ₹ 5,700.00 ₹ 6,000.00
EBITDA ₹ 2,310.00
₹ 2,000.00 ₹ 2,080.00 ₹ 2,150.00
EBIT ₹ 1,980.00
₹ 1,700.00 ₹ 1,750.00 ₹ 1,800.00
Depreciation & Amortization ₹ 369.60
₹ 300.00 ₹ 330.00 ₹ 350.00

Balance sheet-key variables


2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E
Cash $1,500.0
₹ 700.00 ₹ 1,000.00 ₹ 1,500.00
Accounts Receivable ₹ 1,100.00 ₹ 1,250.00 ₹ 1,350.00 ₹ 1,485.00
Inventories ₹ 900.00 ₹ 925.00 ₹ 935.00 ₹ 949.03
Prepaid Expenses ₹ 50.00 ₹ 63.00 ₹ 75.00 ₹ 89.70

Accounts Payable ₹ 930.00 ₹ 960.00 ₹ 1,000.00 ₹ 1,015.00


Accrued Expenses ₹ 90.00 ₹ 88.00 ₹ 93.00 ₹ 102.30

Debt ₹ 4,250.00
₹ 2,300.00 ₹ 4,750.00 ₹ 4,250.00

Capital Expenditures ₹ 588.50


₹ 455.00 ₹ 488.00 ₹ 535.00

Calculation of WACC
Total debt ₹ 4,250.00
total equity ₹ 12,500.00 mkt capitalisation
total capital ₹ 16,750.00

W-debt 25.37%
W-equity 74.63%
cost of debt 5.2%
cost of equity 15.0%
Tax rate 40%
WACC 11.99%

Calculation of WC change
Accounts Receivable ₹ 1,100 ₹ 1,250 ₹ 1,350 ₹ 1,485
Inventories ₹ 900 ₹ 925 ₹ 935 ₹ 949
Prepaid Expenses ₹ 50 ₹ 63 ₹ 75 ₹ 90

Accounts Payable ₹ 930 ₹ 960 ₹ 1,000 ₹ 1,015


Accrued Expenses ₹ 90 ₹ 88 ₹ 93 ₹ 102
NWC ₹ 1,030 ₹ 1,190 ₹ 1,267 ₹ 1,406
Change in NWC ₹ 139

calculation of FCFF
EBIT ₹ 1,980.00
Less Tax ₹ 792.00
NI ₹ 1,188.00
Add Depreciation & amor ₹ 369.60
less capex ₹ -588.50
Less Changes to NWC ₹ -139
Cash flows to the firm ₹ 829.68

Terminal value
FCFF ₹ 829.68

EV ₹ 11,880.02
less Net debt ₹ -2,750.00
Equity value of the firm ₹ 9,130.02
no of shares outstanding ₹ 500.00
intrinsic value ₹ 18.26
current mkt price ₹ 25.00

slighly over valued


to know the value of the firm and equity value from the accounting
eports, from his interactions with the top management he documented
f the firm and equity value of the firm by using DCF valuation

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E


11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 13.0%
5.5% 9.1% 9.9% 9.9%
18.7% 15.6% 13.0% 15.3%
5.5% 9.1% 9.9% 9.9%
11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 13.0%
11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 13.0%

11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 13.0%


35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%
30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
5.3% 4.1% 4.7% 4.4%

2 3 4 5
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
₹ 7,326.00 ₹ 8,205.12 ₹ 9,271.79 ₹ 10,477.12
₹ 2,564.10 ₹ 2,871.79 ₹ 3,245.12 ₹ 3,666.99
₹ 2,197.80 ₹ 2,461.54 ₹ 2,781.54 ₹ 3,143.14
₹ 388.28 ₹ 336.41 ₹ 435.77 ₹ 460.99

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E


$1,500.0 $1,500.0 $1,500.0 $1,500.0
₹ 1,648.35 ₹ 1,846.15 ₹ 2,086.15 ₹ 2,357.35
₹ 1,001.22 ₹ 1,092.33 ₹ 1,200.47 ₹ 1,319.32
₹ 106.47 ₹ 123.08 ₹ 139.08 ₹ 160.36

₹ 1,070.83 ₹ 1,168.27 ₹ 1,283.93 ₹ 1,411.04


₹ 113.55 ₹ 127.18 ₹ 143.71 ₹ 162.40

₹ 4,250.00 ₹ 4,250.00 ₹ 4,250.00 ₹ 4,250.00

₹ 653.24 ₹ 731.62 ₹ 826.73 ₹ 934.21

₹ 1,648 ₹ 1,846 ₹ 2,086 ₹ 2,357


₹ 1,001 ₹ 1,092 ₹ 1,200 ₹ 1,319
₹ 106 ₹ 123 ₹ 139 ₹ 160

₹ 1,071 ₹ 1,168 ₹ 1,284 ₹ 1,411


₹ 114 ₹ 127 ₹ 144 ₹ 162
₹ 1,572 ₹ 1,766 ₹ 1,998 ₹ 2,264
₹ 165 ₹ 194 ₹ 232 ₹ 266
₹ 2,197.80 ₹ 2,461.54 ₹ 2,781.54 ₹ 3,143.14
₹ 879.12 ₹ 984.61 ₹ 1,112.61 ₹ 1,257.25
₹ 1,318.68 ₹ 1,476.92 ₹ 1,668.92 ₹ 1,885.88
₹ 388.28 ₹ 336.41 ₹ 435.77 ₹ 460.99
₹ -653.24 ₹ -731.62 ₹ -826.73 ₹ -934.21
₹ -165 ₹ -194 ₹ -232 ₹ -266
₹ 888.48 ₹ 887.26 ₹ 1,046.01 ₹ 1,147.13

₹ 14,939.44
₹ 888.48 ₹ 887.26 ₹ 1,046.01 ₹ 16,086.57
Infosystems DCF valuation

Equity General info


outstanding shares 192 Growth rate 5%
Market price 103.5 cash 3637.54
beta 0.7 debt 780
Risk free rate 8% cost of debt 14%
Risk premium 6% tax rate 25%
after tax Cost of
cost of equity 12.20% debt 10.50%
Matket capitalisation 19872

2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Revenues ₹ 29,899 ₹ 39,391 ₹ 48,298 ₹ 58,776 ₹ 70,990


EBITDA ₹ 3,271 ₹ 4,310 ₹ 5,284 ₹ 6,430 ₹ 7,767
EBIT ₹ 2,420 ₹ 3,471 ₹ 4,232 ₹ 5,118 ₹ 6,140
Depreciation & Amortisati ₹ 851 ₹ 838 ₹ 1,052 ₹ 1,312 ₹ 1,627
Working Capital Change ₹ 184 ₹ 669 ₹ 275 ₹ 268 ₹ 387
Capex ₹ 298 ₹ 877 ₹ 1,076 ₹ 1,309 ₹ 1,581

Revenues growth %
EBITDA margin %
EBIT Margin %
Depreciation & Amortisation as a % of revenue
Capex (growth rate)
Working capital change
Diluted Shares ₹ 192 ₹ 192 ₹ 192 ₹ 192 ₹ 192

Free cash flows calculations

EBIT
Less Tax
NI
Add depreciation
Less capex
less Changes ot NWC
Cash flows
Terminal

cash flows

EV ₹ 280,394.60
less net debt 2857.54
Equity value of the firm ₹ 283,252.14
out shares ₹ 192
intrinsic value of the firm 1475
market price 103.5

under valued buy


luation

WACC
Total cap 20652
W_debt 3.78%
W_equity 96.2%

WACC 12.14%

2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2022E 2022E

₹ 85,119 ₹ 99,589 ₹ 113,532 ₹ 126,020 ₹ 137,362 ₹ 145,604


₹ 9,312 ₹ 27,885 ₹ 26,112 ₹ 25,204 ₹ 34,341 ₹ 37,857
₹ 7,309 ₹ 24,897 ₹ 28,383 ₹ 30,245 ₹ 24,725 ₹ 29,121
₹ 2,004 ₹ 5,975 ₹ 6,812 ₹ 7,561 ₹ 8,242 ₹ 7,280
₹ 499 ₹ 3,020 ₹ 3,020 ₹ 3,020 ₹ 3,020 ₹ 3,020
₹ 1,891 ₹ 1,929 ₹ 1,967 ₹ 2,007 ₹ 2,047 ₹ 2,088

17% 14% 11% 9% 6%


28% 23% 20% 25% 26%
25% 25% 24% 18% 20%
6% 6% 6% 6% 5%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
3020 3020 3020 3020 3020
₹ 192

₹ 24,897 ₹ 28,383 ₹ 30,245 ₹ 24,725 ₹ 29,121


₹ 6,224 ₹ 7,096 ₹ 7,561 ₹ 6,181 ₹ 7,280
₹ 18,673 ₹ 21,287 ₹ 22,684 ₹ 18,544 ₹ 21,841
₹ 5,975 ₹ 6,812 ₹ 7,561 ₹ 8,242 ₹ 7,280
₹ -1,929 ₹ -1,967 ₹ -2,007 ₹ -2,047 ₹ -2,088
₹ -3,020 ₹ -3,020 ₹ -3,020 ₹ -3,020 ₹ -3,020
₹ 19,700 ₹ 23,112 ₹ 25,218 ₹ 21,719 ₹ 24,013
₹ 353,340

₹ 19,700 ₹ 23,112 ₹ 25,218 ₹ 21,719 ₹ 377,352


TV=( 〖𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐹〗 _(𝑛 )∗(1+𝑔))/((𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶−𝐺))

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