DCF Valuation Model (Complete)
DCF Valuation Model (Complete)
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Dashboard: Perpetuity Method
Main Outputs 1
Selected Inputs
Enterprise Value 1
Equity Value per Share
WACC
9.7% 9.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
10.7% 10.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
11.7% 11.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
WACC
9.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 9.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
10.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 10.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
11.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 11.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
These tables require the workbook calculation to be set to automatic to update. ⁽¹⁾
Main Outputs 1
Selected Inputs
Enterprise Value 1
Equity Value per Share
WACC
9.7% 9.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
10.7% 10.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
11.7% 11.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
WACC
9.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 9.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
10.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 10.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
11.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 11.7% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
These tables require the workbook calculation to be set to automatic to update. ⁽¹⁾
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Term
Driver Switch 2
Working Capital 1
We have assumed working capital amounts per day in terminal year are equal to the previous year. ⁽¹⁾
Surge Batteries Inc. Europe 63,702 375,499 31.5% 17.0% 14.5% 0.85 0.76
Future Energy Co. Europe 43,422 311,425 32.2% 13.9% 12.2% 1.01 0.92
Clean Green Ltd. Europe 26,211 131,996 31.9% 19.9% 16.6% 1.34 1.18
Full Power Solutions Ltd. Europe 15,109 95,746 33.0% 15.8% 13.6% 0.99 0.90
Earthcor Power Inc. Europe 95,234 666,541 30.2% 14.3% 12.5% 0.88 0.80
Weight Cost
Tax Rate is a 5-Year Average. ⁽¹⁾ Debt Capital 15.0% 3.6%
Levered beta is based on 5-year monthly data. ⁽²⁾ Equity Capital 85.0% 10.8%
Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta / (1 + (1 - Tax Rate) × Debt-to-Equity) ⁽³⁾
Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta x (1 + (1 - Tax rate) x (Debt-to-Equity)) ⁽⁴⁾
Weighted Average Cost of Capital 9.7%
Other Inputs
Valuation Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 1,600
Shares Outstanding (FD 000) 34,200 Projected Interest Expense 2,520
Current Stock Price (US$/sh) 2.23 First Year Tax Depreciation 50%
Terminal Growth Rate 2.0% Blended Tax Depreciation Rate 15.0%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple 1
7.0x First Year Accounting Depreciation 50%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) 9.7% Useful Life: Existing Assets (Years) 16.00
Terminal Growth Greater Than or Equal To WACC? No Useful Life: New Assets (Years) 20.00
The Terminal EBITDA multiple should reflect a 'steady-state' industry multiple. ⁽¹⁾
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Term
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Plant Capacity 1,600
OPERATIONS
Sales Volume Growth 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,374 1,401 1,430 1,459 1,473 1,488 1,495 1,503 1,510
Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600
Operational Efficiency 85.9% 87.6% 89.4% 91.2% 92.1% 93.0% 93.5% 93.9% 94.4%
VOLUME
Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,374 1,401 1,430 1,459 1,473 1,488 1,495 1,503 1,510
Sales Volume (Units) 501,510 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090 545,805 548,534 551,277
PRICING
Pricing Increases 1.7% 2.1% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Unit Price (USD/Unit) 102.86 104.61 106.81 110.01 111.11 112.23 113.35 113.91 114.48
REVENUE
Sales Volume (Units) 501,510 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090 545,805 548,534 551,277
Sales Price (USD/Unit) 102.86 104.61 106.81 110.01 111.11 112.23 113.35 113.91 114.48
Revenue 51,585 53,494 55,749 58,570 59,748 60,949 61,866 62,486 63,113
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Term
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Sales Volume 501,510 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090 545,805 548,534 551,277
Inflation 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.5%
VARIABLE COSTS
Materials (USD/Unit) 9.51 9.72 9.91 10.26 10.56 10.88 11.15 11.43 11.60
Packaging (USD/Unit) 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.01
Transportation (USD/Unit) 1.54 1.58 1.62 1.68 1.73 1.78 1.82 1.87 1.90
Subtotal 11.87 12.14 12.39 12.82 13.21 13.60 13.94 14.29 14.51
Materials 4,769 4,970 5,173 5,461 5,681 5,910 6,088 6,271 6,397
Packaging 411 430 449 474 493 513 528 544 555
Transportation 772 808 846 893 929 966 995 1,025 1,046
Subtotal 5,953 6,208 6,467 6,827 7,102 7,389 7,611 7,840 7,998
FIXED COSTS
Labor (USD/Unit) 31.17 31.24 31.31 31.77 32.40 33.04 33.70 34.37 34.71
Utilities (USD/Unit) 7.28 7.30 7.31 7.42 7.57 7.72 7.87 8.03 8.11
Insurance (USD/Unit) 4.91 4.92 4.93 5.01 5.11 5.21 5.31 5.42 5.47
Subtotal 43.36 43.45 43.55 44.19 45.07 45.96 46.88 47.81 48.29
Labor 15,630 15,973 16,341 16,913 17,420 17,943 18,392 18,851 19,134
Utilities 3,651 3,731 3,817 3,951 4,069 4,191 4,296 4,403 4,469
Insurance 2,463 2,517 2,575 2,665 2,745 2,827 2,898 2,971 3,015
Subtotal 21,744 22,221 22,733 23,529 24,235 24,962 25,586 26,225 26,619
SUMMARY
Variable Costs (USD/Unit) 11.87 12.14 12.39 12.82 13.21 13.60 13.94 14.29 14.51
Fixed Costs (USD/Unit) 43.36 43.45 43.55 44.19 45.07 45.96 46.88 47.81 48.29
Total Costs (USD/Unit) 55.23 55.59 55.94 57.02 58.28 59.57 60.82 62.10 62.79
Variable Costs 5,953 6,208 6,467 6,827 7,102 7,389 7,611 7,840 7,998
Fixed Costs 21,744 22,221 22,733 23,529 24,235 24,962 25,586 26,225 26,619
Total Costs 27,697 28,429 29,200 30,356 31,337 32,350 33,197 34,066 34,616
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Term
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Inflation 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.5%
Revenue 51,585 53,494 55,749 58,570 59,748 60,949 61,866 62,486 63,113
COGS 27,697 28,429 29,200 30,356 31,337 32,350 33,197 34,066 34,616
Gross Profit 23,888 25,065 26,549 28,215 28,411 28,599 28,669 28,420 28,496
SG&A 5,877 6,006 6,144 6,359 6,550 6,746 6,915 7,088 7,194
Other 1,764 1,931 2,026 2,097 2,160 2,225 2,280 2,337 2,372
EBITDA 16,247 17,128 18,379 19,759 19,701 19,628 19,474 18,995 18,930
Depreciation 2,960 3,196 3,452 4,177 4,408 4,647 4,893 5,147 5,300
EBIT 13,287 13,932 14,927 15,582 15,293 14,980 14,581 13,849 13,630
Interest 1,488 2,580 2,448 2,520 2,520 2,520 2,520 2,520 2,520
EBT 11,799 11,352 12,479 13,062 12,773 12,460 12,061 11,329 11,110
Net Income 8,644 8,491 9,467 9,143 8,941 8,722 8,442 7,930 7,777
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Term
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Revenue 51,585 53,494 55,749 58,570 59,748 60,949 61,866 62,486 63,113
COGS 27,697 28,429 29,200 30,356 31,337 32,350 33,197 34,066 34,616
TOTAL AMOUNTS
Accounts Receivable 5,708 6,333 6,624 7,221 7,366 7,514 7,627 7,704 7,781
Inventory 1,792 1,923 2,009 2,079 2,146 2,216 2,274 2,333 2,371
Accounts Payable 3,024 3,205 3,319 3,327 3,434 3,545 3,638 3,733 3,794
Cash from Working Capital Items (575) (263) (660) (105) (106) (78) (41) (55)
We have assumed working capital amounts per day in terminal year are equal to the previous year. ⁽¹⁾
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Capital Expenditure 4,982 5,199 4,400 4,550 4,700 4,850 5,000 5,125
All PP&E and capital expenditure is assumed depreciable (i.e. no land balance). ⁽¹⁾
This schedule calculates depreciation on a straight-line basis. ⁽²⁾
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
TAX BASIS 1
Model assumes no dispositions that would impact the PP&E or the Tax Basis. ⁽¹⁾
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
TAX LOSSES
Beginning 24,128 13,112 1,914 – –
Add: New Losses – – – – –
Less: Use of Tax Losses (11,016) (11,198) (1,914) – –
Ending 24,128 13,112 1,914 – – –
TAXES
Current Taxes – – 2,817 3,385 3,269
Deferred Taxes 3,918 3,832 921 233 130
Total Taxes 3,918 3,832 3,738 3,618 3,399
This schedule assumes that tax losses can be carried forward indefinitely into the future. ⁽¹⁾
This schedule assumes losses do not carry back to previous periods to reduce taxable income. ⁽²⁾
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Earnings Before Interest & Tax (EBIT) 15,582 15,293 14,980 14,581 13,849
Profitable Before Taxes? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
TAX LOSSES
Beginning 24,128 10,592 – – –
Add: New Losses – – – – –
Less: Use of Tax Losses (13,536) (10,592) – – –
Ending 24,128 10,592 – – – –
TAXES
Current Taxes – 938 4,148 4,141 4,025
Deferred Taxes 4,674 3,650 346 233 130
Total Taxes 4,674 4,588 4,494 4,374 4,155
This schedule assumes that tax losses can be carried forward indefinitely into the future. ⁽¹⁾
This schedule assumes losses do not carry back to previous periods to reduce taxable income. ⁽²⁾
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Term
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
EBITDA METHOD
EBITDA 19,759 19,701 19,628 19,474 18,995 18,930
Current Taxes – (938) (4,148) (4,141) (4,025) (4,089)
Capital Expenditure (4,550) (4,700) (4,850) (5,000) (5,125) (5,300)
Change in Working Capital (660) (105) (106) (78) (41) (55)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 14,549 13,959 10,523 10,255 9,805 9,486
Capital expenditure has been set equal to depreciation in the terminal year. ⁽¹⁾
This schedule assumes no deferred taxes in the terminal year. ⁽²⁾
Unlevered Free Cash Flow – 14,549 13,959 10,523 10,255 9,805 9,486
The Enterprise Value from the XNPV Function is slightly different due to treatment of leap years. ⁽¹⁾
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 14,549 13,959 10,523 10,255 9,805 9,486
EBITDA 18,930
We have applied an LTM multiple to the EBITDA at the end of the terminal year to calculate the Terminal Value. ⁽¹⁾
The Enterprise Value from the XNPV Function is slightly different from the Manual Method due to treatment of leap years. ⁽²⁾