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HW 5 CHAP 5 Simulación Espol

The document describes three statistical tests performed to validate simulation models: 1) A t-test was used to validate a job shop simulation model, finding the model was inadequate based on average jobs in the shop. 2) A confidence interval test also found the job shop model needed more replicates. 3) A t-test found a manufacturing process simulation model was adequate based on average daily production, but noted 20 replications would be needed to guarantee a power of 0.9.

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618 views4 pages

HW 5 CHAP 5 Simulación Espol

The document describes three statistical tests performed to validate simulation models: 1) A t-test was used to validate a job shop simulation model, finding the model was inadequate based on average jobs in the shop. 2) A confidence interval test also found the job shop model needed more replicates. 3) A t-test found a manufacturing process simulation model was adequate based on average daily production, but noted 20 replications would be needed to guarantee a power of 0.9.

Uploaded by

Elvira
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Name: Elvira Nicole Yépez Tapia

SIMULATION

HOMEWORK 5 CHAPTER 5
VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF SIMULATION MODELS

1. A simulation model of a job shop was developed to investigate different scheduling rules. To validate
the model, the scheduling rule currently used was incorporated into the model and the resulting output
was compared against observed system behavior. By searching the previous year’s database records, it
was estimated that the average number of jobs in the shop was 22.5 on a given day. Seven independent
replications of the model were run, each of 30 days’ duration, with the following results for average
number of jobs in the shop:

18.9 22.0 19.4 22.1 19.8 21.9 20.2

Develop and conduct a statistical test to evaluate whether model output is consistent with system
behavior. Use the level of significance α = 0.05.

n 7
μ0 22.5
α 0.05
α/2 0.025

Y = average number
Replication
of jobs in the shop
1 18.9
2 22
3 19.4
4 22.1
5 19.8
6 21.9
7 20.2
Sample mean 20.61428571
Standard dev. 1.35576371
Ῡ 20.6142857
S 1.35576371

Driving t test

t0 -3.67994143
|t0| 3.67994143
We reject Ho, therefore the simulation model is inadequate

2. Use the confidence interval test to validate the exercise 1. ε = 2

ε 2
n 7
μ0 22.5
α 0.05
α/2 0.025

Ῡ 20.6142857
S 1.35576371
t(α/2 , n-1) 2.45

Intervalo
Inferior Superior
19.3588309 21.8697405

falls outside the confidence interval

Best case 0.63025952 < 2


Worst case 3.14116905 > 2

We need more replicates for the model.


3. A simulation model of a manufacturing process was developed to investigate its productivity in a
specific period of time. To validate the model, the production output was compared against observed
process behavior, which is, in average, 180 products in one day. Ten independent replications of the
model were run, each of 1-day duration, with the following results for products/day:

135 158 130 181 200 112 109 145 155 188

a) Develop and conduct a statistical test to evaluate whether model output is consistent with system
behavior. Use the level of significance α = 0.01.

n 10
n-1 9
μ0 180
α 0.01
α/2 0.005

Replication Y = production output


1 135
2 158
3 130
4 181
5 200
6 112
7 109
8 145
9 155
10 188
Sample mean 151.3
Standard dev. 31.18421966

Ῡ 151.3
S 31.1842197

Driving t test

t0 -2.91036203
|t0| 2.91036203
We do not reject Ho. The model is adequate.

b) What sample size is needed to guarantee a Power of the Test greater than or equal to 0.9? (level of
significance = 0.01), ε = 31.

α 0.01
ε 31
Sample size needed for β ≤ 0.1

δ 0.994093

For α= 0.01, β≤0.1 and δ = 0.994

From OC table n ≥ 20 replications.

C10 1, 8 e4

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