Research Report - Aerospace - Supply Chain Overview
Research Report - Aerospace - Supply Chain Overview
September 20XX
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Industry Overview
3. Key Growth Drivers
4. Business Dynamics
5. Key Performance Metrics
6. Recent Trends
Disclaimer: This document is provided for information purposes only. The information is believed to be reliable, but TresVista does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. It
should not be used, relied upon, or treated as a substitute for specific professional advice. Opinions, estimates, and assumptions constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and
are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Additional information is available
upon request. Images used in this document are for reference only and may not be reproduced, copied, transmitted or manipulated in any way.
Executive Summary
Global aerospace & defense sector valued at ~$920.6 bn, and expected to grow at
Sizeable Backlogs CAGR of 5.3% over 20XX-20XX supported by the size of existing primes / OEM backlogs,
at 7+ years of Boeing and Airbus production
Aerospace In Early Traffic to grow at a 6.0% CAGR, above 3.0% longer term GDP growth; supported by
Upcycle rising fuel prices, aging fleet along with growing demand from emerging markets
Industry characterized by few, high value adding players (Prime, Tier1) at the top and
Pyramidal Structure
large number of small part manufacturers (Tier 2, Tier 3) at the bottom
Increased consolidation witnessed in Tier 2 and Tier 3, with latter trading at a premium
Valuation
on account of higher margins
4
2. Industry Overview
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Industry Overview
Introduction
0.0
share), followed by Europe (22.0%), and Asia (19.0%) 2005 2009 2014
Boeing and EADS are the leading market players with Industry Structure
7.4% and 6.5% share in commercial aerospace
A&D industry is becoming more global due to 26.3%
heightened competition, growing travel demands, and
security requirements in emerging markets
1.7%
72.0%
The growth in aerospace & defense sector is expected to be led by emerging markets
(1) Data Monitor, Clearwater report.
(2) Installed base and backlog includes aircrafts from Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and Bombardier. Backlog includes firm orders, options, Letter of Intent (LOIs) and option LOIs. 6
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Industry Overview
Business Segments
0 50.0 0.0
2010 2020 2030 2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031 2011 2015
Market for regional jets is expected to grow faster than commercial aerospace & defense
(1) Delloite 20XX A&D report, Boeing: Current Market Outlook (20XX-20XX).
(2) Bombardier Business Aircraft: Market forecast (20XX-20XX). 7
(3) moneymorning.com.au/20120417/australia-the-pacific-pawn-in-usa-versus-china.html.
3. Key Growth Drivers
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2.0
Global load factor for airlines are at record high level of
1.0
~79.0% and further increase in traffic will be met by
fleet expansion 0.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Average global GDP growth of ~3% translates to traffic growth of 6.0% in the long term
(1) Airbus Global Market Forecast (20XX-20XX).
(2) Sector Primer – Bank of America Merrill Lynch dated 13 May, 20XX. 9
(3) RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometers.
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Emerging Market Drive Traffic Growth Changing Dynamics of Air Travel (1)
Air Traffic, RPKs (billions)
Air traffic growth is shifting from U.S. & Europe to Asia 14,000
Pacific with China’s air traffic growing at CAGR of 8.7 % 12,000
in 20XX-20XX 10,000
8,000
Growth in propensity to travel is estimated to be 4.0x in
6,000
China and 3.0x in India by 20XX compared to 20XX
4,000
Two third of the traffic growth will be generated by 2,000
emerging economies by 20XX 0
1990 2010 2030
North America Europe Asia Pac China Middle East Other
200.0 200.0
0.010
400.0 400.0
2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
2010 real GDP per capita
Emerging Markets US & Europe 0.001
0.0 10,000.0 20,000.0 30,000.0 40,000.0 50,000.0
9.0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
World Airlines US Airlines
2.0% 80.0
30,000
Growth 1.5% 60.0
Increasing fuel prices to drive replacement demand in the range of ~40.0% going forward
(1) Aerospace Industry Update report dated July 20XX, Goldman Sachs.
(2) Airbus Global Market Forecast (20XX-20XX). 11
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Business Jet Fleet Age (20XX) (1) Business Jet Fleet Forecast (1)
Fleet
4,000 Avg. Age = 15.9 years 14,200 4,600
3,410 31,500
15,200
2,000
1,365 1,520 1,590
1,255
1,000
690
970
0
1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 >40
Aircraft Age Groups
Economic recovery, increased wealth creation & jet utilization will drive the growth for business jets
(1) Bombardier Market Forecast (20XX-20XX).
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China vs. U.S. Defense Budget (2) Projected U.S. Military Expenditure (3)
in $ bn.
in $ bn.
800.0
3,500.0 710.0
675.0 660.0
700.0 620.0 630.0 640.0
3,000.0
2,500.0 600.0
2,000.0 500.0
1,500.0 400.0
1,000.0 300.0
500.0 200.0
0.0 100.0
2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
0.0
China U.S.
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
China’s rapid military expansion, along with others in Asia, is likely to drive growth
(1) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
(2) nextbigfuture.com/20XX/XX/china-economic-forecast-to-20XX-and.html. 13
(3) A&D 20XX review – PWC.
4. Business Dynamics
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Business Dynamics
Industry Supply Chain
Overview
Prime Tier-1 Tier-2 Tier-3
Landing Gear
Wheels & Brakes Bearings
Manufacturer
Airframe Manufacturer
Flight Control Plastic Parts &
Wings
Actuators Castings
Primes - Control design, manufacturing and assembly function, the most critical component of value chain
Tier 1 - Support Primes by providing them with equipments and systems like engines, Wings, Fuselage
Tier 2 - Manufacture and develop parts as per the specifications provided by primes and Tier 1 suppliers
Tier 3 - Responsible for supplying basic products, components and other non-core value added services
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Business Dynamics
Industry Supply Chain
Business Dynamics
Supply Chain Components
25.0%
Most critical component of the value chain
characterized by stiff entry barriers due to high cost and Engine Systems Avionics Interior Landing Gear
Other Fuselage Wing Empennage
technological requirements
Current Civil Fleet by Aircraft Type (1)
An aircraft takes 8-15 months to build, therefore aircraft
primes locks most of its cost through long-term 5.0%
Long term contracts with supplier bode well for Airframe primes
(1) Commercial Aerospace: Industry Overview by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
17
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Business Dynamics
Supply Chain Components
Tier 1 - Aircraft Engine Primes (1) Engine delivery value (20XX-20XX) (2)
Global engine demand is estimated at 149k; to be Pounds of Thrust
>75,000
delivered from 20XX-20XX, worth ~$975.0 bn
45,000 - 75,000
Accounts for approximately 25.0% of the cost of a 22,000 - 45,000
10,000 - 22,000
commercial airliner 6,000 - 10,000
Engines are rated by the amount of thrust they can 3,000 - 6,000
< 3,000
deliver and the future engines are expected to generate Turboprops
thrust of more than 22K pounds in $ bn. 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0
JV’s/Alliances have increased to capitalize on the Passenger Freight Bizjets
demand from emerging market and to leverage Aircraft Engine Manufacturers
common platform
Alliances Companies % Stake
The major aero engine suppliers include General The Engine Alliance GE Aviation 50.0%
Electric, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce Pratt & Whitney 50.0%
CFM GE Aviation 50.0%
Snecma Moteurs 50.0%
International Aero Engines Rolls-Royce 32.5%
Pratt & Whitney 32.5%
Japanese Aero Engines Corporation 23.0%
MTU Aero Engines 12.0%
PowerJet NPO Saturn JSC 50.0%
Snecma Moteurs 50.0%
Engine manufacturers form JVs to capture the opportunities from emerging markets
(1) Commercial Aerospace: Industry Overview by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
(2) Market Outlook – Rolls Royce. 18
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Business Dynamics
Supply Chain Components
Aerostructures are built to have high strength to weight ratio, with low drag
(1) Commercial Aerospace: Industry Overview by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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Business Dynamics
Supply Chain Components
Avionics has moved towards integrated system or “glass Airbus pioneered the use of digital control and uses this
cockpit”, which displays wide range of operating data on system on all of its aircraft models, except for the A300
a single main screen and A310
Business Dynamics
Supply Chain Components
Sales channel weighted towards distribution (~64.0%) Hardware Bearings Electric Comps Machined Parts
29%
North America Europe Asia Pasific Latin America Other
Business Dynamics
Supply Chain Components
Materials 100.0%
Usage of composite is increasing significantly over traditional materials like aluminum & steel
(1) Commercial Aerospace: Industry Overview by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
22
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Business Dynamics
Supply Chain Components
in $ bn.
Major players include Triumph Group, Helico, and AAR 60.0 10-year 10-year
Projected Projected
CAGR CAGR
50.0
Other 3.0%
Heavy 3.0%
40.0 ME 5.0%
Line 3.0%
Asia 6.0%
30.0
Component 4.0%
20.0 Europe 2.0%
0.0
Segment Geography
North American market to experience 1.0% growth against a global CAGR of ~4.0%
(1) Commercial Aerospace: Industry Overview by Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Aerospace Global Report 20XX.
(2) Commercial Services Report by AAR. 23
5. Key Performance Metrics
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25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Airframe Manufacturers Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Materials
10.0x
8.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x
Airframe Manufacturers Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Materials
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Prime Engine Electronic Mechanical MRO Sundry Interiors Space Systems
Manufacturer Systems Components Equipment
12.0x
10.0x
8.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x
Prime Engine Electronic Mechanical MRO Sundry Interiors Space Systems
Manufacturer Systems Components Equipment
Recent Trends
Key Trends
Strategic Trends
Performance-based contracts gain popularity
● With the decreased use of cost-reimbursable contracts by the U.S. government, companies are becoming more
adept at utilizing and managing fixed price (performance-based contracts)
● GE, Rolls Royce, and Pratt & Whitney are leaders of performance-based logistics services, utilizing accurate
forecast models, and proactive real-time performance data to anticipate and prevent service interruptions
Risk sharing
● The aerospace industry is moving towards greater dependence on Tier 1s, reducing the number of suppliers and
increased risk sharing by suppliers
● For instance, Embraer had ~350 suppliers for their EMB145 aircraft including four risk sharing suppliers, which
came down to 38 suppliers for EMB170/190 aircraft, with 16 risk sharing suppliers
Globalization of aerospace manufacturing
● Cost reduction, ability to focus on core business, and increased speed to market are the main factors driving the
globalization/outsourcing in aerospace manufacturing
● OEM integrators such as Airbus and Boeing are shifting their production to low cost China, India, Malaysia,
Singapore and other Asian countries achieving 20.0-30.0% cost savings
Focus on efficiency leads to performance based contracts, risk sharing and outsourcing
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Recent Trends
Technical Trends
Industry Trends
Aircraft
(1) All-electric (2) Power-by-the-
Fly-by-Wire Winglets Composites Maintenance
Plane Hour (3)
Programs
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Disclaimer: This document is provided for information purposes only. The information is believed to be reliable, but TresVista does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. It should not be used, relied
upon, or treated as a substitute for specific professional advice. Opinions, estimates, and assumptions constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. This material
is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Additional information is available upon request. Images used in this document are for reference only and may
not be reproduced, copied, transmitted or manipulated in any way.
© TresVista Financial Services 20XX