Group 2 - Agricultural Sector Report
Group 2 - Agricultural Sector Report
SECTOR
REPORT
MACROECONOMICS
FY BBA DIVISION C
GROUP 2
GROUP MEMBERS
SREENAYANEE ANNAMANENI
74022020417
DHANISHTA PRAMOD
74022020167
AAYUSH SINGH
74022020156
SHLOK KHARE
74022020134
PAGE 02
INDEX
INTRODUCTION
Page 4
PROBLEMS
Page 14 - Page 15
FUTURE
Page 19 - Page 23
PAGE 03
INTRODUCTION
Agriculture is the Primary sector of the Economy. It makes direct use of natural resources.
It is contrasted with the secondary sector and the Tertiary sector This sector is usually most
important in less developed countries & typically less important in industrial countries. Until
the industrial revolution, the Vast majority of the human population labored in agriculture.
Pre-Industrial agriculture was typically subsistent in which farmers raised most of their
crops for their own consumption instead of cash crops for trade. A remarkable shift in
agricultural practices has occurred over the past century in the response to new
technology & the development of the world market. This also led to technological
improvements in agricultural techniques. Now, Agriculture with its allied sector is
unquestionably the largest livelihood provider in India, more so in the vast rural area. It
also contributes a significant figure to GDP. Most of the industries also depend on the
agriculture sector for their raw materials. The planned approach to development has
helped the country to reach a stage where the country is self-sufficient in food grains and
has a comfortable buffer stock. These achievements have been possible mainly through
the favorable policy framework. The policy of Indian Agriculture was to achieve food
security by providing incentives for growth along with equitable access to food. As a result,
terrible famines have become events of the past and the agricultural production does not
show large variation even in the event of adverse climatic condition
Indian agriculture has witnessed wide variations in growth performance during a span of
six decades after independence. The variability was particularly pronounced due to the
subsistence nature of farming in India and the sector’s heavy dependence on monsoon
and other climatic parameters. In the initial years after the inception of planned
development, it was the green revolution technologies that fired up growth in the sector
for nearly three decades. The impact of the green revolution tapered off gradually
towards the later years of the last century. Economic reforms initiated in the early nineties
had a significant impact on the agricultural sector, primarily due to the opening up of the
economy to external competition, liberalization of trade, and deregulation of input and
other sub-sectors
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GROWTH IN LAST 10
YEARS
The last decade in the Indian agricultural sector is referred to as Phase of Recovery and
here is some information respective to the years and their Economic Survey on the
agricultural sector;
2011-12
The Economic Survey 2011-12 was tabled in the Parliament and the survey saw 2.5%
agriculture growth in FY 12. Pioneering work by agriculture scientists and the efforts of
farmers had helped achieve a breakthrough in the agriculture sector in the 1960s, popularly
known as the ‘Green Revolution.
Further, special attention was required for achieving higher production and productivity
levels in pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables, which had remained untouched in the First
Green Revolution but were essential for nutritional security. In this regard, achieving high
production of poultry, meat and fisheries were also essential in FY 12. The choice before the
nation was clear—to invest more in agriculture and allied sectors with the right strategies,
policies, and interventions. This was also a ‘necessary condition for ‘inclusive growth and for
ensuring that the benefits of growth reach a larger number of people.
2012-13
The Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-12) witnessed an average annual growth of 3.6 percent
in the gross domestic product from agriculture and allied sector against a target of 4.0
percent. While it appeared that the performance of the agriculture and the allied sector
had fallen short of the target, production had improved remarkably, growing twice as fast
as the population. Realized growth, however, had been much higher than the average
annual growth of 2.5 and 2.4 percent achieved during the Ninth and Tenth Plans,
respectively. Growth has also been reasonably stable despite large weather shocks during
2009 (deficient southwest monsoon), 2010-11 (drought/deficient rainfall in some states), and
2012-13 (delayed and deficient monsoon).
PAGE 05
2013-14
“Foodgrain production in India has shown remarkable improvement in recent years,” said
the economic survey of 2013-14
The Survey identified low yields, low productivity, soil degradation, climate change, and lack
of market linkages as the main factors affecting farmer income. And so for jumpstarting
agricultural growth and to meet the target of 4% growth in the Twelfth Plan, the country
“invested heavily” in farm research, rural infrastructure, better market access, and credit
facilities, and smarter usage of farm inputs, It encouraged private companies to create
farm-to-market linkages. Policies such as foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail
paved the way for investment in new technology and marketing of agricultural produce in
India
2014-15
The Economic Survey 2014-15 was released in the Parliament by Arun Jaitley. It has
highlighted various challenges and reforms in the agriculture sector. According to the
survey, GDP declined to 15.2% during the Eleventh Plan and then further decreased to
13.9% in 2013-14. There also has been decreasing in the number of cultivators from 127.3
million (Census 2001) to 118.7 million (Census 2011). According to the Economic Survey,
growth rates of productivity in the agriculture sector were far below global standards;
productivity levels of rice and wheat had declined after the green revolution of the 1980s.
Another issue was soil degradation due to declining fertilizer-use efficiency. Also, the food
subsidy had increased substantially in the past few years. With 60 percent of the total food
grains and oilseeds produced being grown in the Kharif season, and with just about 35
percent of the arable area being irrigated, Indian agriculture was still dependent on
rainfall.
2015-16
Yes, it was almost a drought year with monsoon rains (June-September) being deficient by
12 percent from its long period average, but it should not be an excuse to justify such low
rates of growth in agriculture. Even for the first three years of the 12th Five-Year plan
(2012-17), the rate of agri-GDP growth turned out to be a mere 2 percent per annum
against a target of at least 4 percent. Oilseeds and pulses had also suffered a decline in
production, which had put pressure on their larger imports. Rest, overall, there was ample
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Agri-commodity production in the country to meet the domestic requirements of food, feed,
and fiber, as well as to export some quantities. The problem was not going to be in the
production basket, but in farmers' incomes, which took a slide because of poor harvest and
falling prices. Private sector investments were on the increase when global and domestic
prices of Agri-products were on the rise. But with falling prices, this was slowing down too,
which had a hit on productivity adversely
2016-17
The Economic Survey of 2015-16 had put an optimist Agri-GDP growth of 1.1 percent for the
following year, on top of last year’s minus 0.2 percent, thus making it less than half a
percent growth, on average, in the two years of Narendra Modi-led government. This
pathetically low growth in agriculture had been blamed on a back-to-back drought caused
by strong El Nino. The Survey hoped that next year, 2016-17 will be La Nina, with bountiful
rainfall, and agriculture hopefully will be back on track. The Survey recognizes the
paradoxes in water utilization in Indian agriculture and shows how India is a “net exporter
of water” through agriculture. But it falls short of recommending any solid policy solution to
change that situation.
2017-18
Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on 29 January 2018 tabled the Economic Survey 2017-
18 in the Parliament. The survey examined the current challenges before the Indian
economy and suggested policy measures to overcome those challenges. The average
income of a farmer is estimated at Rs 77,976 per year, according to the Dalwai committee
report. The Modi government has targeted to double the farmers’ income by 2022 and we
can see how is that going. This will help increase power use efficiency and boost water
conservation. But the survey also said climate change could lower the farmers’ income by
up to 25%, the Economic Survey warned and suggested the need for “dramatic”
improvement in irrigation, use of new technologies, and better targeting of power and
fertilizer subsidies. The Survey also pointed out that agriculture in India even today
continues to be vulnerable to the vagaries of weather because close to 52% i.e., 73.2 million
hectares area out of 141.4 million hectares net sown area, farm field is still unirrigated and
dependent on rainfall and targets to work on this.
PAGE 07
2018-19
The 2018-19 financial year reported a 6.8 percent economic growth, lower than the five-year
average of 7.5 percent, according to the Economic Survey. This dip was majorly due to low
agricultural growth — in fact, a contraction in the fourth quarter. Low food inflation made
farmers produce less and spend less on consumption. This led to an overall dip in economic
activities. “The contraction in food prices may have contributed to inducing farmers to
produce less,” read the survey. In the last quarter of 2018-19, the agriculture and allied sector
shrunk by 0.3 percent. Overall, there was been a dip in consumption across sectors. But
what stands out is the dip in private consumption. The dip in gross domestic product
happened due to low private consumption in the last two quarters of the fiscal year. “This
could have been due to low farm incomes in rural areas arising from low food prices and
also due to the stress in non-banking financial companies, which affected lending,” the
survey added. 2018-19 fiscal reported near-zero consumer food inflation. For five months
consecutively the food inflation was negative. According to the Ministry of Agriculture &
Farmers Welfare, food grain production in 2018-19 was 283.4 million tonnes compared to
285 million tonnes in 2017-18.
2019-20
The average annual growth rate in real terms in agriculture, as well as its allied sectors, has
remained static in the last six years, in turn impacting farmers’ income. The annual growth
rate in real terms in agriculture and its allied sectors was 2.88 percent from 2014-15 to 2018-
19, according to the Survey. The estimated growth rate in 2019-20 will be 2.9 percent.
Economic Survey Report 2020 emphasized the importance of sustainable agricultural
practices to support small and marginal farmers, who constitute 87 percent of India’s
peasants. Farmers should be incentivized to adopt water-efficient practices in order to avert
a looming water crisis, the Survey said. It called for shifting the focus in agriculture to
‘irrigation water productivity from ‘land productivity’. Peninsular states like Tamil Nadu,
Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh usually have inefficient irrigation water
productivity. In other words, sugarcane and paddy productivity in these states was not
commensurate with the amount of water being utilized Survey also pointed at the increase
in soil fatigue due to improper or overuse of chemical fertilizers. This is best represented by
the fertilizer response ratio that has shown a declining trend.
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2020-21
The share of agriculture in the gross domestic product (GDP) has reached almost 20
percent for the first time in the last 17 years, making it the sole bright spot in GDP
performance during 2020-21, according to the Economic Survey 2020-2021. The resilience
of the farming community in the face of adversities made agriculture the only sector to
have clocked a positive growth of 3.4 percent at constant prices in 2020-21 when other
sectors slid. The share of agriculture in GDP increased to 19.9 percent in 2020-21 from 17.8
percent in 2019-20. The last time the contribution of the agriculture sector in GDP was at
20 percent was in 2003-04. The continuous supply of agricultural commodities, especially
staples like rice, wheat, pulses, and vegetables, also enabled food security. The production
also boosted the allocation of food grains under the National Food Security Act that
increased by 56 percent in 2020-21, compared to 2019-20. The government allocated 943.53
lakh tonnes of food grains to states / Union territories till December 2020. The survey also
termed the new farm laws as a “remedy” and “not a malady” in a message to the farmer
community opposing the laws. “The three agricultural reform legislation are designed and
intended primarily for the benefit of small and marginal farmers who constitute around 85
percent of the total number of farmers and are the biggest sufferers of the regressive
Agricultural Produce Market Committee regulated market regime. The newly introduced
farm laws herald a new era of market freedom that can go a long way in the improvement
of farmer welfare in India,” it said.
We can say that the agricultural sector has seen a lot of ups and downs in these past
decades and now is finally on a path of growth and we hope it remains that way.
PAGE 09
IMPORT AND EXPORT
PAGE 10
IMPORT AND EXPORT
Exported Agricultural Commodities in the Last 10 Years
PAGE 10
Top 3 Imported Agricultural Commodities’ Top 10 Countries
PAGE 13
PROBLEMS
Seeds
The seed is a basic input for attaining higher crop yields and sustained growth in
agricultural production. Distribution of assured quality seed is as critical as the production
of such seeds. Unfortunately, good quality seeds are out of reach of the majority of
farmers, especially small and marginal farmers mainly because of the exorbitant prices of
better seeds.
Instability
Agriculture in India largely depends on the monsoon. As a result, the production of food
grains fluctuates every year. A year of the abundant output of cereals is often followed by
a year of acute shortage. This, in its turn, leads to price income and employment
fluctuations.
Subdivision
Due to the growth of population and the break¬down of the joint family system, there has
occurred continuous division of agricultural land into smaller and smaller plots. At times
small farmers are forced to sell a portion of their land to repay their debt. This creates a
further division of land. Sub-division, in its turn, leads to fragmentation of holdings. When
the size of holdings becomes smaller and smaller, cultivation becomes uneconomic. As a
result, a major portion of land is not brought under the plow. Such sub-division and
fragmentation make the efficient use of land virtually impossible and add to the
difficulties. All these factors account for the low productivity of Indian agriculture.
Crop Rotation
The successful conduct of agricultural operations depends upon a proper rotation of
crops. If cereals are grown on a plot of land its fertility is reduced to some extent. This can
be restored if other crops such as pulses are grown on the same plot on a rotational basis.
Most farmers in India are illiterate and do not understand this important point. Since they
PAGE 14
are not aware of the need for crop rotation they use the same type of crop and,
consequently the land loses its fertility considerably.
Equipment
The method of cultivation in most areas of India are still primitive. Most farmers continue
to use the native plow and other accessories. However, the problem is not one of a
shortage of modern machinery. The real problem is that the units of cul¬tivation are too
small to permit the use of such machinery.
Irrigation Facilities
Farmers also suffer due to a lack of irrigation facilities. Moreover ordinary varieties of
seed can be replaced by better varieties if there is an assured supply of water. The need
for the construction of minor irrigation works of a local nature is both urgent and pressing.
In fact, the total water potential in the country is more than adequate to irrigate the whole
areas under cultivation. However, the present problem is one of discovering cheap and
easy methods of utilizing these vast supplies of water.
Ownership
The ownership of agricultural land in India is fairly widely distributed, there is some degree
of concentration of landholding. Inequality in land distribution is also due to the fact that
there are frequent changes in land ownership in India. It is believed that large parcels of
land in India are owned by a- relatively small section of the rich farmers, landlords, and
money lenders, while the vast majority of farmers own very little amount of land or no
land at all.
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GOVERNMENT POLICIES
AND SCHEMES
The Government of India encourages farmers in taking up projects in select areas by
subsidizing a portion of the total project cost. All these projects aim at enhancing capital
investment, sustained income flow, and employment areas of national importance.
The government will also focus on the scheme to provide short-term agricultural loans to
farmers at affordable interest rates. Other schemes of the agriculture sector, including the
Prime Minister Crop Insurance Scheme, the Prime Minister Agricultural Irrigation Scheme
PM-Kisan Scheme
Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana is an initiative of the Government wherein
120 million small and marginal farmers of India with less than two hectares of landholding
will get up to Rs. 6,000 per year as minimum income support. PM-Kisan scheme has
become operational since 1st December 2018. Under this scheme, cultivators will get Rs.
6000 in three installments.
PAGE 16
farmer has to pay a maximum premium of 2 percent for Kharif, 1.5 percent for Rabi food&
oilseed crops, and 5 percent for annual commercial or horticultural crops, and the
remaining part of the actuarial or bided premium is equally shared by the Central & State
Government. An important purpose of the scheme is to facilitate quick claims settlement.
The claims should be settled within 2 months of harvest subject to the timely provision of
both yield data & share of premium subsidy by the State Government.
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National Agriculture Market (e-NAM)
National Agriculture Market gives an e-marketing platform at the national level and
supports the creation of infrastructure to enable e-marketing. This new market process is
revolutionizing agriculture markets by guaranteeing better price discovery. It also brings in
transparency & competition to enable cultivators to get improved remuneration for their
produce moving towards ‘One Nation One Market’.
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FUTURE OF AGRICULTURE
India is expected to achieve the ambitious goal of doubling farm income by 2022. The
agriculture sector in India is expected to generate better momentum in the next few years
due to increased investment in agricultural infrastructures such as irrigation facilities,
warehousing, and cold storage. Furthermore, the growing use of genetically modified crops
will likely improve the yield for Indian farmers. India is expected to be self-sufficient in pulses
in the coming few years due to the concerted effort of scientists to get early maturing
varieties of pulses and the increase in minimum support price.
In the next five years, the central government will aim at US$ 9 billion in investments in the
fisheries sector under PM Matsya Sampada Yojana. The government is targeting to raise
fish production to 220 lakh tonnes by 2024-25.
Going forward, the adoption of food safety and quality assurance mechanisms such as
Total Quality Management (TQM) including ISO 9000, ISO 22000, Hazard Analysis and
Critical Control Points (HACCP), Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), and Good
Hygienic Practices (GHP) by the food processing industry will offer several benefits. The
Agri export from India is likely to reach the target of US$ 60 billion by the year 2022.
2. More competition will be there among private companies giving innovative products,
better seeds, fertilizers, plant protection chemicals, customized farm machinery, and feed
for animals, etc in cost-effective ways at competitive prices giving more returns on
investment by farmers. The use of biotechnology and breeding will be very important in
developing eco-friendly and disease-resistant, climate-resilient, more nutritious, and tastier
crop varieties.
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3. Some technologies will be frequently and widely used in the future and some will become
common in a short time while some will take time to mature. For producing the same
products in another way so as to use resources judiciously and using new resources also like
hydroponics, use of plastics and bioplastics in production. There will be more vertical and
urban farming and there will also be efforts in long term to find new areas for a production
like barren deserts and seawater.
4. Use nano-technology for enhancement of food quality and safety, efficient use of inputs
will be in near future. Nano-materials in agriculture will reduce the wastage in the use of
chemicals, minimize nutrient losses in fertilization, and will be used to increase yield through
pest and nutrient management. IFFCO has already done successful tests in nano-fertilizers.
5. India has improved remarkably in its digital connectivity and market access has become
very easy. The number of internet users is projected to reach 666.4 million in 2025. Farmers
will be behaving more smartly with mobiles in their hands and would be able to be more
aware and connected with different stakeholders. The government will be making wide use
of digital technology for generating awareness among farmers, information sharing,
government schemes using digital technology for direct transfers of money.
6. There will certainly be more work by the government, village communities, Agri startups,
and private players in conserving sharply depleting water resources. The use of digital
technology can make a revolution in this direction. There will be the use of satellites, IoT,
drones for better collection of data regarding soil health, crop area, and yield which will
make the cost for insurers less with better estimations, and the system will be more exact
and effective.
7. There will be more niche marketers in operations, area, and crop-specific small
equipments which will make operations even at small farms easier and efficient.
Food wastage will be a less and better use of waste materials in agriculture will be more.
The number of warehouses in the private sector will be more and linkages between
government and private warehouses will be increasing. This will help in balancing supply
with demand and stabilization of prices of agri-outputs in the market.
8. Retailing in agriculture will largely be digitalized. A study estimates that over 90 percent
of Kirana stores across the country will be digitalized by 2025 with modern traceable
PAGE 20
logistics and a transparent supply chain. Many players have already taking Kirana stores
to the doorsteps of consumers like Amazon and Jio Mart.
As per estimates by the United Nations, by 2050 approximately 10 billion people will
inhabit the world. More than 65% of the rural population is engaged in agriculture which
leads to an average income of approximately Rs.6500 a month. This is a clear indication of
under-employment and low per capita. These numbers clearly point out that an
unsustainably excessive part of the population is dependent on agriculture and that we
need to wean away labor out of agriculture to other sectors. The prevailing situation also
calls for a need for major policy measures to boost the rural economy and create new
infrastructure for the agricultural sector. It is unfortunate that the farmers are unaware of
the new farming equipment and agricultural techniques. It has become very important to
make farmers realize the importance of and need for new technologies.
To address this pressing issue, agriculture requires new approaches, which can not only
increase productivity but also ensure environmental protection and conservation of limited
natural resources. If we were to take a look at the future, there are already a few trends
that are transforming agriculture globally.
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•Supply Chain Efficiencies– Real-time data analytics can be used for an efficient and
smart supply chain.
•Agricultural Product Grading—Crop diseases or pest infestation in the crops can be
accessed by an image on a farmer’s phone and determine the product quality in real-time,
without any manual intervention. Farmers just need to know the operation of an app on
their phones.
These modern techniques are the future of Indian Agriculture. They capture complete
information about the commodities (growing information, pre-and post-harvest,
transportation, warehousing, etc.) and proactively advise farmers on sowing, pest control,
harvesting, etc.
Hydroponic Farming
Hydroponics is a type of horticulture and a subset of hydroculture, which is a method of
growing plants, usually crops, without soil, by using mineral nutrient solutions in an aqueous
solvent. Terrestrial plants may be grown with only their roots exposed to the nutritious liquid,
or, in addition, the roots may be physically supported by an inert medium such as perlite,
gravel, or other substrates. Despite inert media, roots can cause changes in the rhizosphere
pH and root exudates can affect the rhizosphere biology.
Hydroponics offers many advantages, one of them being a decrease in water usage for
agriculture. Since it takes much less water to grow to produce, it could be possible in the
future for providers in harsh environments with little accessible water to grow their own
food.
Organic Food
Organic is important for India for several reasons. First, we spend lots of taxpayer money
on inputs, especially fertilizer. Second, organic production relies more on labor as a
substitute for other inputs, something relevant for employment. Its intensive nature does not
favor economies of scale, but that expressly fits well with India’s smaller farm sizes. There
are also studies showing that over time, especially combined with crop rotation, organic
farming requires less water than conventional farming. Third, while the health impact for
consumers is debated, the system-level impacts are clearer.
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These modern techniques are the future of Indian Agriculture. They capture complete
information about the commodities (growing information, pre-and post-harvest,
transportation, warehousing, etc.) and proactively advise farmers on sowing, pest control,
harvesting, etc.
References
Growth in last 10 years
www.economictimes.indiatimes.com
www.downtoearth.com
www.financialexpress.com
www.theglobaleconomy.com
Import and export
www.agriexchange.apeda.gov.in
www.agricoop.nic.in
www.pib.gov.in
www.indianbudget.gov.in
Problems
www.economicsdiscussion.net
Government policies and schemes
www.krishijagran.com
www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
www.nabard.org
Future
www.ibef.org
www.theindiaforum.in
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