DISCRETE VARIABLES

Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc

July 6, 2021

Contents
1 Content 2

2 Discrete Variable 2

3 Some useful Discrete Random variables 4

4 Assignments 5

1
Ho Chi Minh City International University Probability & Statistic
Industrial Systems Engineering Department Lecturer: Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc

1 Content

• Discrete Random Variables (RV): expectation and variances

• Some useful discrete RV

2 Discrete Variable

Properties
1 ≥ P (x) ≥ 0 ∀x
P
∀x P (x) = 1
The cumulative distribution function, F(x), of a discrete random variable X is:
P
F (x) = P (X ≤ x) = ∀i≤x P (i)
The expected value (or expectation) of a random variable is the value that is expected to occur, on
average
P
E(x) = ∀x xP (x)
σ = V (X) = E[(X − µ)2 ] =
2
− µ)2 P (x)
P
∀x (x
  P 2
σ 2 = V (X) = E(X 2 ) − [E(X)]2 = 2
P
∀x x P (x) − [ ∀x xP (x)]
The standard deviation of a random variable is the square root of its variance:
p
σ = std(X) = V ar(X)
The expected value of a function of a discrete random variable X is:
P
E[h(X)] = ∀x h(x)P (x)
The expected value of a linear function of a random variable is:
E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b
The variance of a linear function of a random variable is: V (aX + b) = a2 V (X) = a2 σ 2
The mean or expected value of the sum of random variables is the sum of their means or expected values:
µX+Y = E(X + Y ) = E(X) + E(Y )
The VARIANCE of the SUM of independent random variables is the SUM of their VARIANCES:
2 2
σX+Y = V (X + Y ) = V (X) + V (Y ) = σX + σY2
Example:
It is forecast that the total market demand for an item will follow 1 of 6 scenarios with corresponding
probabilities as follows: 1. Find the expected value and the variance of the demand of this market

Scenario Demand Probabilities

1 1000 0.1
2 2000 0.15
3 3000 0.25
4 4000 0.25
5 5000 0.15
6 6000 0.1

2. To satisfy the customer demand, the company has to invest a production line cost about 1000. Assume
that they can realize the scenario before manufacturing, i.e. the production quantity is equal to total
customers’ demands, and each demand will create a profit of 2. What is the expected profit of the company?
3. Now assume that, the company must manufacture before realizing market demands. In this case if they
manufacture more than market demands, each unsold product will suffer a loss of 0.5. So among 1000, 2000,
3000, 4000, 5000 and 6000, what is the optimal quantity for manufacturing.
1. Using the formula for calculating the expected values
P
E(x) = ∀x xP (x)

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Ho Chi Minh City International University Probability & Statistic
Industrial Systems Engineering Department Lecturer: Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc

The expected value of the demand is the sum of the column (D × P rob)

Scenario Demand Probabilities D × P rob D2 × P rob

1 1000 0.1 100 100000
2 2000 0.15 300 600000
3 3000 0.25 750 2250000
4 4000 0.25 1000 4000000
5 5000 0.15 750 3750000
6 6000 0.1 600 3600000

→ E(Demand) = 3500
To calculate the variance of the demand, the following formula is appliep
P  P 2
σ 2 = V (X) = E(X 2 ) − [E(X)]2 = 2
∀x x P (x) − [ ∀x xP (x)] =2050000
2. The expected profit of the company
E[h(x)] = E[2X − 1000] = 2E(X) − 1000 = 6000
3.
Let Y be the manufacturing quantity of the company: Y = {1000, 2000, · · · 6000};
Let X be the real demand of the market: X = {1000, 2000, · · · 6000};
When X>Y, i.e. demand > manufacturing quantity, there are no unsold items. The number of sold items is
Y and will create a profit of 2Y. The loss due to unsold items is 0
When X<Y, i.e. demand < manufacturing quantity, there are (Y-X) unsold items. The sold items will
create a profit of 2X. The unsold items will incur a cost which is equal to 0.5(Y-X).
So given a pair (X,Y), the profit will be
P rof it = 2 × min(X, Y ) − 0.5 × max(0, Y − X)
The expected profit of the company Based on this table we obtain the optimal position is Y=5000

No Demand Prob Y=1000 Y=2000 Y=3000 Y=4000 Y=5000 Y=6000

1 X=1000 0.1 200 150 100 50 0 -50
2 X=2000 0.15 300 600 525 450 375 300
3 X=3000 0.25 500 1000 1500 1375 1250 1125
4 X=4000 0.25 500 1000 1500 2000 2000 2000
5 X=5000 0.15 300 600 900 1200 1500 1425
6 X=6000 0.1 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
2000 3750 5125 5875 6125 6000

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Probability & Statistic

Industrial Systems Engineering Department

Ho Chi Minh City International University
3 Some useful Discrete Random variables

Binomial Distribution Hypergeometric Distribution Poisson Distribution

Measure the probability of a number of
occurrences over a given period of
Measure the probability of X time or within a given area or volume. That is, the
Measure the probability of X successes in successes in n selections, without Poisson random variable counts occurrences
Defintion n trials where the probability of success in replacement, from a population of N over a continuous interval of time or space.
each trial is p elements, S of which are successes It can also be used to calculate approximate
and (N-S) of which are failures binomial probabilities when the probability
of success is small (p ≤ 0.05) and the number
of trials is large (n ≥ 20).
P (x) = Crn px q n−x CxS ×C N −S n−x µx e−µ
Formula P (x) = N P (x) =
q =1−p Cn x!
S
E(X) E(X) = µ = np µ = np, where p = N E(X) = µ
−n
Var(X) V ar(X) = σ 2 = npq V ar(X) = σ 2 = N
N −1 npq V ar(X) = µ
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Multinomial Distribution Geometric Distribution

The multinomial probability distribution is
Geometric random variable counts
useful for determining the probabilities of
Defintion the number of trials until the first
outcomes that can be classified into more
success.
than two categories.
P (x1 , x2 , · · · , xk = x1 !x2n!!···xk ! px1 1 px2 2 · · · pxkk
Formula n = x1 + x2 + · · · + xk P (x) = pq x−1
1 = p1 + p2 + · · · + pk

Lecturer: Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc

E(X) µ = p1
q
Var(X) V ar(X) = σ 2 = p2

Probability & Statistic

Ho Chi Minh City International University Probability & Statistic
Industrial Systems Engineering Department Lecturer: Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc

4 Assignments

Question 1: There are 4 Red balls and 6 Blue balls in a box. Find the probability that we obtain 2 Red
balls and 2 Blue balls after 4 drawings when we use 2 different methods as follows:
a) After each draw, we don’t return any ball into the box
b) After each draw, a ball with the same color is returned into the box
c) Now we draw until there is no ball in the box. What is the probability that the last ball is the Red ball.
Question 2: The following gambling game, known as the wheel of fortune (or chuck-a-luck), is quite popular
at many carnivals and gambling casinos: A player bets on one of the numbers 1 through 6. Three dice are
then rolled, and if the number bet by the player appears i times, i = 1, 2, 3, then the player wins i units; if
the number bet by the player does not appear on any of the dice, then the player loses 1 unit. Is this game
fair to the player? (Actually, the game is played by spinning a wheel that comes to rest on a slot labeled by
three of the numbers 1 through 6, but this variant is mathematically equivalent to the dice version.)
Question 3: A communication system consists of n components, each of which will, independently, function
with probability p. The total system will be able to operate effectively if at least one-half of its components
function. For what values of p is a 5-component system more likely to operate effectively than a 3-component
system?
Question 4:To determine whether they have a certain disease, 100 people are to have their blood tested.
However, rather than testing each individual separately, it has been decided first to place the people into
groups of 10. The blood samples of the 10 people in each group will be pooled and analyzed together. If the
test is negative, one test will suffice for the 10 people, whereas if the test is positive, each of the 10 people
will also be individually tested and, in all, 11 tests will be made on this group. Assume that the probability
that a person has the disease is .1 for all people, independently of each other, and compute the expected
number of tests necessary for each group. (Note that we are assuming that the pooled test will be positive
if at least one person in the pool has the disease.)
Question 5: A newsboy purchases papers at 10 cents and sells them at 15 cents. However, he is not
allowed to return unsold papers. If his daily demand is a binomial random variable with n = 10, p = 1/3
approximately how many papers should he purchase so as to maximize his expected profit?
Question 6: It is known that screws produced by a certain company will be defective with probability
.01, independently of each other. The company sells the screws in packages of 10 and offers a money-back
guarantee that at most 1 of the 10 screws is defective. What proportion of packages sold must the company
replace?
Question 7: An airline knows that 5% of the people making reservations on a certain flight will not show
up. Consequently, their policy is to sell 52 tickets for a flight that can hold only 50 passengers. What is the
probability that there will be a seat available for every passenger who shows up.
Question 8: In a game show, the player will be rewarded 100 dollars for each successful answer. And he
has to stop when he has 1st wrong answer. Assumed that all question has 4 possible answers, and the player
only uses blind guess, what is the expected money quantity that a player can obtain?
Question 9: If the condition in a day is favorable, fungi will double number of themselves in that day.
Otherwise, the quantity of fungi won’t change. Assumed that at the beginning of day 1 we have 3 fungi,
what is the expected number of fungi after 4 days? Given that the probability a day is a favorable day is
0.6.
Question 10: Two athletic teams play a series of games; the first team to win 4 games is declared the overall
winner. Suppose that one of the teams is stronger than the other and wins each game with probability .6,
independently of the outcomes of the other games. Find the probability, for i = 4, 5, 6, 7, that the stronger
team wins the series in exactly i games. Compare the probability that the stronger team wins with the
probability that it would win a 2-out-of-3 series.
Question 11: A contractor purchases a shipment of 100 transistors. It is his policy to test 10 of these

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Ho Chi Minh City International University Probability & Statistic
Industrial Systems Engineering Department Lecturer: Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc

transistors and to keep the shipment only if at least 9 of the 10 are in working condition. If the shipment
contains 20 defective transistors, what is the probability it will be kept?
Question 12: When three friends go for coffee, they decide who will pay the check by each flipping a coin
and then letting the “odd person” pay. If all three flips produce the same result (so that there is no odd
person), then they make a second round of flips, and they continue to do so until there is an odd person.What
is the probability that
1. Exactly 3 rounds of flips are made?
2. More than 4 rounds are needed?
Question 13: Each of the members of a 7-judge panel independently makes a correct decision with proba-
bility. 7. If the panel’s decision is made by majority rule, what is the probability that the panel makes the
correct decision? Given that 4 of the judges agreed, what is the probability that the panel made the correct
decision?
Question 14: The following gambling game, known as the wheel of fortune (or chuck-a-luck), is quite pop-
ular at many carnivals and gambling casinos: A player bets on one of the numbers 1 through 6. Three dice
are then rolled, and if the number bet by the player appears i times, i = 1, 2, 3, then the player wins i units;
if the number bet by the player does not appear on any of the dice, then the player loses 1 unit. Is this game
fair to the player? (Actually, the game is played by spinning a wheel that comes to rest on a slot labeled by
three of the numbers 1 through 6, but this variant is mathematically equivalent to the dice version.
Question 15: A game show consists of 2 rounds. Obviously, to advance into the 2nd round, the player
must win the 1st round first. The probabilities that the player wins the 1st and the 2nd round are given
as 0.60 and 0.40, respectively. During the 1st round, the player will be rewarded $10 for winning, and $5
for losing (considered as reward for participating). The player will be rewarded $20 for winning, and $8 for
losing. This reward is independent with the reward of the 1st round.
1. Find the probability that the player win both rounds.
2. Given that the player has lost, find the probability that the player lost at 2nd round.
3. Find the expected reward money that the player receives in this gameshow.
Question 16: In a court action, jury is a group of 12 people – which call juror, that votes to see if a de-
fendant is guilty or not. Suppose that a defendant is considered guilty if at least 10 out of 12 jury members
vote guilty. Each jury member votes independently of each other. A juror has probability that vote a guilty
defendant innocent is 0.25, and the probability that a juror votes an innocent defendant is 0.05. Given that
on today, 75% of the defendants are actually guilty. Calculate the probability that the jury provide a correct
decision?
Question 17: The number of typos in a page follows Poisson distribution with µ = 8.
1. What is the probability that no typos in a page?
2. What is the probability that at least 4 typos in a page.
Question 18: People enter a casino with a rate of 1 people in 2 minutes.
1. What is the probability that no one enters between 12:00 and 12:05?
2. What is the probability that at least 4 people enter the casino during that time.

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