NO PRESSURE – OBIDIPONBEDE

BAYES THEOREM

Bayes theorem is an expansion of conditional probability and the theorem of total probability. It
is used to find the inverse of a given probability.
The formula:
𝑨
𝑷( )∗𝑷(𝑩)
𝑩
P(B/A) = 𝑨 𝑨
𝑷( )∗𝑷(𝑩)+𝑷( )∗𝑷(𝑪)
𝑩 𝑪

Exercises:
1. An appliance store purchases electric ranges from two companies. From company A, 500
ranges are purchased and 2% are defective. From company B, 850 ranges are purchased
and 2% are defective. Given that a range is defective, find the probability that it came
from company B.

2. Two manufacturers supply blankets to emergency relief organizations. Manufacturer A

supplies 3000 blankets, and 4% are irregular in workmanship. Manufacturer B supplies
2400 blankets, and 7% are found to be irregular. Given that a blanket is irregular, find the
probability that it came from manufacturer A.

3. Two manufacturers are producing hats in their respective boxes. In manufacturer A’s
box, there are 12 blue hats, 6 red hats, and 6 green hats. In manufacturer B’s box, there
are 10 blue hats, 10 red hats, and 4 green hats. In manufacturer C’s box, there are 8 blue
hats, 8 red hats, and 8 green hats. A box is selected at random, and a hat is drawn. Find
the probability that it is blue if it comes from manufacturer A, box.

4. There is an 80% probability of encountering a traffic jam on route 1, a 60% probability

on route 2, and a 30% probability on route 3. Because of other factors, such as distance
and speed limits, the driver uses route 1 fifty percent of the time and routes 2 and 3 each
25% of the time. If the driver calls the dispatcher to inform him that she is in a traffic
jam, find the probability that she has selected route 1.

5. There is an 80% probability of encountering a traffic jam on route 1, a 60% probability

on route 2, and a 30% probability on route 3. Because of other factors, such as distance
and speed limits, the driver uses route 1 fifty percent of the time and routes 2 and 3 each
25% of the time. If the driver calls the dispatcher to inform him that she is in a traffic
jam, find the probability that she has selected route 1. If the driver did not encounter a
traffic jam, find the probability that it uses route 1.

BY: SARKCESS
 NO PRESSURE – OBIDIPONBEDE

6. A store owner purchases telephones from two companies. From company A, 350
telephones are purchased and 2% are defective. From company B, 1050 telephones are
purchased and 4% are defective. Given that a phone is defective, find the probability that
it came from company B.
7. Two manufacturers supply food to a large cafeteria. Manufacturer A supplies 2400 cans
of soup, and 3% are found to be dented. Manufacturer B supplies 3600 cans, and 1% are
found to be dented. Given that a can of soup is dented, find the probability that it came
from manufacturer A.

8. A corporation has three methods of training employees. Because of time, space, and
location, it sends 20% of its employees to location A, 35% to location B, and 45% to
location C. Location A has an 80% success rate. That is, 80% of the employees who
complete the course will pass the licensing test. Location B has a 50% success rate and
location C has a 20% success rate. If an employee is selected at random, find the
probability that
(a) It has a success rate
(b) It has a success rate given that it uses location

9. An advertising executive is studying television-viewing habits of married men and

women during prime time hours. On the basis of past viewing records, the executive has
determined that during prime time, husbands are watching television 60% of the time. It
has also been determined that when the husband is watching television, 40% of the time
the wife is also watching. When the husband is not watching television, 30% of the time
the wife is watching television. Find the probability that if the wife is watching television,
the husband is also watching television.

10. Suppose box A contains 4 red and 5 blue coins and box B contains 6 red and 3 blue coins.
A coin is chosen at random from the box A and placed in the box B. Finally, a coin is
chosen at random from among those now in box B, what is the probability a blue coin
was transferred from box A to box B given that the coin chosen from B is red?

11. A warehouse receives 60% of its supplies from factory A, 30% from B and the rest from
C.
A sends large, medium, and small items in the ratio 1:3:2
B’s supplies are 1/3 large size and no small size.
C provides three times as many medium as small items and no large ones
If an item is selected what is the probability that it is
a. Medium
b. From B and large
c. From C if it is found to be medium

BY: SARKCESS
 NO PRESSURE – OBIDIPONBEDE

12. Two boxes, A and B, each contain a mixture of black discs and white discs. A contains 8
black and 7 white and B contains 5 black and 7 white. A disc is selected at random. Find
the probability that it is
a. White
b. The disc came from B if it is white

13. A box contains 60 balls each of which is either red, blue or white. If the numbers of these
are in the ratio 6:3:1. How many are there of each?
Find the probability that when two balls are drawn at random together, they are
a. Same colour
b. No red ball
c. They are both white if you are told they are same colour

14. Three companies A, B, and C supply 25%, 35% and 40% of the notebooks to a school.
Past experience shows that 5%, 4% and 2% of the notebooks produced by these
companies are defective. If a notebook was found to be defective, what is the probability
that the notebook was supplied by A?

15. Two boxes containing candies are placed on a table. The boxes are labelled B₁ and B₂.
Box B₁ contains 7 cinnamon candies and 4 ginger candies. Box B2 contains 3 cinnamon
candies and 10 pepper candies. The boxes are arranged so that the probability of selecting
box B₁ is 1/3 and the probability of selecting box B₂ is 2/3. Catherine is blindfolded and
asked to select a candy. He will win a colour TV if he selects a cinnamon candy. What is
the probability that Catherine will win the TV (that is, she will select a cinnamon candy)?

16. Two boxes containing candies are placed on a table. The boxes are labelled B₁ and B₂.
Box B₁ contains 7 cinnamon candies and 4 ginger candies. Box B2 contains 3 cinnamon
candies and 10 pepper candies. The boxes are arranged so that the probability of selecting
box B₁ is 1/3 and the probability of selecting box B₂ is 2/3. Kadijah is blindfolded and
asked to select a candy. She will win a colour TV if he selects a cinnamon candy. If she
wins a colour TV, what is the probability that the marble was from the first box?

17. At a certain university, 4% of men are over six-feet tall and 1% of women are over six-
feet tall. The total student population is divided in the ratio 3:2 in favour of women. If a
student is selected at random from among all those over six-feet tall, what is the
probability that the student is a woman?

BY: SARKCESS