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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

There are broadly theoretical and experimental probabilities. Normally you cannot calculate the
theoretical probability. However, there are certain types of probability that allows you to
calculate theoretical probability. One of these types is called Binomial Experiment.
Many types of probability problems have only two outcomes or can be reduced to two outcomes.
For example, when a coin is tossed, it can land heads or tails. When a baby is born, it will be
either male or female. In a basketball game, a team either wins or loses. A true/false item can be
answered in only two ways, true or false. Other situations can be reduced to two outcomes. For
example, a medical treatment can be classified as effective or ineffective, depending on the
results. A person can be classified as having normal or abnormal blood pressure, depending on
the measure of the blood pressure gauge. A multiple-choice question, even though there are four
or five answer choices, can be classified as correct or incorrect. Situations like these are called
binomial experiments

PROPERTIES OF A BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

1. There are fixed number of trials (N), which means the experiment is repeated a fixed number
of times (trials).
2. The end trials are independent, which means that what happens on one trial does not influence
the outcome of the other trials. For e.g., your first child being a boy does not mean the second
will not be a boy or will be a boy. It has no effect on the second child.
3. There are only two outcomes which are called a success and a failure.
4. The probability of a success does not change from trial to trial. If P is the probability of
success, then Q is the probability of failure. Therefore, Q=1-P or P=1-Q or P+Q+1.
At times the notation X ~ B(n, p) implies that – the random variable X is binomially distributed
with number of trials n and p probability of success.
FORMULA
The probability of success in a binomial experiment can be computed with the use of the
formula below:

P(X) = (nCx) (𝒑)𝒙(𝒒)𝒏−𝒙

Where; n = number of trials x = the number
of successes in n trials p = the
numerical value of success
q = the numerical value of failure

Examples
1. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads. Solution

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This problem can be solved by looking at the sample space. There are three ways to get
two heads.
HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT
The answer is , or 0.375.
Looking at the problem from the standpoint of a binomial experiment, one can show that it
meets the four requirements.

1. There are a fixed number of trials (three).

2. There are only two outcomes for each trial, heads or tails.
3. The outcomes are independent of one another (the outcome of one toss in no way affects the
outcome of another toss).
4. The probability of a success (heads) is in each case.

In this case, n = 3, X = 2, p = 0.5, and q=0.5. Hence, substituting in the formula gives
P (2 heads) = (𝑛𝐶𝑥)𝑝𝑥𝑞𝑛−𝑥
P (2 heads) = 3𝐶2(0.5)2(0.5)3−2 P (2 heads) = 0.375 which
is the same answer obtained by using the sample space.

2. A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited a doctor in any
given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that exactly 3 will
have visited a doctor last month.
Solution
In this case, n = ,q=
Hence, P (3) = (𝑛𝐶𝑥)𝑝 𝑞 P
𝑥 𝑛−𝑥

(3) = (10𝐶3)(0.2)3(0.8)10−3
P(3) = 0.201

Exercises
1. 25% of all students in year 2 at the FSSL at FBC are taking Statistics course. 30 students are
chosen.
(i) Find the probability that exactly 7 out of 30 students chosen are taking statistics.
(ii) What is the probability that fewer than 5 students out of the 30 chosen are taking statistics?
(iii) Find the probability that at least 6 students out of the 30 chosen are taking statistics.

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2. Suppose Jawara was given a 3–question multiple choice test. Each question has 4
responses and only one is correct answer. Suppose we want to find the probability that Jawara
can get two questions correct. How do we do that?

3. Approximately 10% of all people are left-handed inclusive Alhaji Sulaiman Kamara.
Consider a group of fifteen people. Find the probability (a) that none are left handed.
(b) Seven are left-handed
(c) at least two are left-handed
(d) at most 3 are left-handed

4. The proportion of black M&M’s in a milk chocolate packet is approximately 14%. 1Suppose
a package of M&M’s typically contains 52 M&M.
(a) Six black M&M
(b) Twenty-five M&M are black
(c) No more than five M&M are black.
(d) All of the M&M are black.

5. A student, Prezo Gibo, takes a 20-question, true/false exam and guesses on each
question. Find the probability of passing if the lowest passing grade is 15 correct out of 20.

6. It is reported that 77% of workers aged 16 and over drive to work alone. Choose 8
workers at random. Find the probability that a. All drive to work alone
b. More than one-half drive to work alone
c. Exactly 3 drive to work alone
7. Approximately 10.3% of Sierra Leonean high school students drop out of school before
graduation. Choose 10 students entering high school at random. Find the probability that
a. No more than two drop out
b. At least 6 graduate
c. All 10 stay in school and graduate

8. In a survey, 3 of 4 students said the courts show “too much concern” for criminals. Find
the probability that at most 3 out of 7 randomly selected students will agree with this statement.

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9. The percentage of couples where both parties are in the labor force is 52.1. Choose 5
couples at random. Find the probability that
a. None of the couples have both persons working
b. More than 3 of the couples have both persons in the labor force
c. Fewer than 2 of the couples have both parties working
10. Emmanuel and co research institute found that 40% of Konos do not think that having a
college education is important to succeed in the business world. If a random sample of five
Konos is selected, find these probabilities.
a. Exactly 2 people will agree with that statement.
b. At most 3 people will agree with that statement
c. At least 2 people will agree with that statement
d. Fewer than 3 people will agree with that statement.
11. Of graduating economics students, 14% said that their generation will be remembered for
their proficiency in Calculus. If 7 graduating seniors are selected at random, find the
probability that either 2 or 3 will agree with that statement.

12. A worn machine is known to produce 10% defective components. If the random variable
X is the number of defective components produced in a run of 4 components, find the
probabilities that X takes the values 0 to 4.

13. In a box of switches it is known 10% of the switches are faulty. A technician is wiring 30
circuits, each of which needs one switch. What is the probability that (a) all 30 work, (b)
at most 2 of the circuits do not work?
14. The random variable X is distributed B(7, 0.2). Find correct to three decimal places
(a) P(X = 3) (b) P(1 < X ≤ 4) (c) P(X > 1)
15. X is B(4 ,P) and P(X = 4)= 0.0256. Find P(X = 2)

16. X ~B(n, 0.3). Find the least possible value of n such that P(X ≥ 1) = 0.8.
17. The random variable X is B(n, 0.6) and P(X<1) = 0.0256. Find the value of n.
18. In a test there are ten multiple choice questions. For each question there is a choice of four
answers, only one of which is correct. Shaq (a student) guesses each of the answers.
(a) Find the probability that he gets more than seven correct.
He needs to obtain over half marks to pass and each question carries equal weight.
(b) Find the probability that he passes the test.

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19. The owner of a small restaurant decides to change the menu. A local newspaper had claimed
that 40% of all diners chose organic food when eating out. On a randomly chosen day there
are 20 diners eating in the restaurant.
i. Assuming the claim made by the local newspaper is correct, suggest a stable
model/distribution to describe the number of diners X who choose organic foods.
ii. Find P(5<X<10)
20. A random variable X has the distribution B(12, p).

(a) Given that p = 0.25, find (i) P(X < 5) (ii) P(X ≥ 7)
(b) Given that P(X=0) = 0.05, find the value of p to 3 decimal places.
(c) Given the variance of X is 1.92, find the possible values of p.

MEAN, VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF A BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

The mean of a binomial distribution is the number of trials (n) multiplied by the probability of
success. That is, Mean = np
The variance is given as; Variance = npq

Standard Deviation =
Examples:
1. A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
number of heads that will be obtained.
Solution
With the formulas for the binomial distribution and n= 4, p=0.5, q=0.5
Mean = np = (4)(0.5) = 2
Variance = npq = (4)(0.5)(0.5) = 1
Standard deviation =

2. A die is rolled 480 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
number of 3s that will be rolled.
Solution

This is a binomial experiment since getting a 3 is a success and not getting a 3

is considered a failure. Hence, n=480, p=1/6, q=5/6
Mean = np = (480)(1/6) = 80

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Variance = npq = (480)(1/6)(5/6) = 66.67

Standard deviation =

Exercises
1. 25% of all students in Econso are offering Population studies. There are 50 students chosen at
random.
(a) Calculate the Mean
(b) Calculate the Variance
(c) Calculate the Standard deviation
2. The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported that 2% of all
American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births is taken, find the mean,
variance, and standard deviation of the number of births that would result in twins.

3. The probability that it will be a fine day is 0.4. Find the expected number of fine days in a
week and the standard deviation.
4. X is B(n, p) with mean 5 and standard deviation 2. Find the values of n and p.
5. A biased coin is tossed 4 times and the number of heads noted. The experiment is performed
500 times in all, and the results obtained are shown in the table below:
Number of 0 1 2 3 4
heads
Frequency 12 50 151 200 87

a. Find the probability of obtaining a head when the coin is tossed.

b. Calculate the theoretical frequencies 0,1,2,3,4 heads using the associated binomial
distribution.

6. The mean and standard deviation of the following distribution are respectively. If
it is a binomial distribution, Obtain the following:
a. The values of p, q and n.
b. P(X=V), where V is the variance.
c. P(X≥7)
d. P(X≥1)
7. The random variable x is such that X-bin (n,p) and E(x)=2 and Var=24/13. Find the value of
n and p and P(X=2).

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8. A newly wedded couple (Mr. and Mrs. Akutae) are planning to have only three children in
their lifetime. Assuming boys and girls are equally likely at each birth, find (i) the
probability distribution of x, where x is the number of girls (ii) determine the mean and the
variance.
9. The random variable X is B(n, 0.3) and E(X)=2.4. Find n and the standard deviation.
10. The probability that an apple picked at random from a sack is bad is 0.15. (i) Find the
standard deviation of the number of good apples in a sample of 15 apples. (ii) What is the
most likely number of bad apples in a sample of 30 apples?
11. In a certain village it is known that 80% of the villagers are known to have a particular eye
disorder. Twelve people are waiting to see the nurse. (i) What is the most likely number to
have the eye disorder?
12. A random variable X is a distribution of B(n, p) with mean 2 and variance 1.6. Find the
probability that X is less than 6 and calculate the most likely value of X.
13. The random variable is B(10, p) where p<0.5. The variance of X is 1.875. Find
(a) The value of p
(b) E(X)
(c) P(X = 2)
14. A disease occurs in 3% of a population.
a) State any assumptions that are required to model the number of people with the disease
in a random sample of n as a binomial distribution.
b) Using this model, find the probability of exactly 2 people having the disease in a
random sample of 10 people.
c) Find the mean and variance of the number of people with the disease in a random
sample of 100 people.
d) A doctor tests a random sample of 100 patients for the disease. He decides to offer all
patients a vaccination to protect them from the disease if more than 5 of the sample
have the disease. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that the doctor
will offer all patients a vaccination.
15. The probability that Anna wakes up before her alarm rings is 0.4.
a) Find the mean and variance of the number of times that Anna wakes up before her alarm
rings, in the next 7 mornings.
b) Determine the probability that in the next 7 mornings, Anna will wake up before her
alarm rings … (i) … at most once. (ii) in more than 1 but less than 5 mornings.
c) Calculate the probability that in the next 4 weeks Anna will wake up before her alarm
rings on exactly 7 mornings.

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16. The random variable X has binomial distribution B (13,0.16)

a) Determine P (X < 2) .
b) Two independent observations of X are made. Find the probability that exactly
one of these observations is equal to 2.
17. The discrete random variable X has the distribution B (15, p) .
a) Given instead that P (X = 0) = 0.04, determine the value of p, correct to three decimal
places.
b) Given instead that Var (X) = 3.15, determine the two possible values of p.

18. The discrete random variable X has binomial distribution B(n, p). Given that the mean and
the standard deviation of X are both 0.95, determine the value of n.
19. The random variable X has the binomial distribution B(n,0.3). The mean of X is three time
as large as the standard deviation of X. Determine the value of n.
20. The probability of a telesales representative making a sale on a customer call is 0.1
a) Find the probability that a telesales representative achieve (i) no sales in 10 calls. (ii)
more than 4 sales in 20 calls.
Representatives are required to achieve a mean of at least 4 sales each day.
b) Find the least number of calls a representative should make each day, in order to achieve
this requirement.
c) Calculate the least number of calls that a representative need to make in a day for the
probability of at least 1 sale, to exceed 0.98.
21. A geologist is looking for fossils in rocks. In a certain area it has been established over a
long period of time that 10% of the rocks contain fossils. The geologist selects twenty rocks
from this area.
a) State 2 conditions that must be apply in order for a binomial model to be valid.
Find the probability that in the geologist’s sample there will be …
b) one rock containing fossils.
c) at least one rock containing fossils.
d) The geologist selects a new sample of n rocks. He wants to have at least a 95% chance
that his new sample will contain fossils.
22. Jane and Amber are telesales operatives for a company. The probability of Amber making a
sale on a customer call is 0.15. The probability of Jane making a sale on a customer call is 0.1. If
Jane and Amber make 20 calls each, determine the probability that they will make (i) 2 sales
each (ii) 4 sales between then (iii) 5 sales between them.

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NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

This refers to the number of X repeated trials to produce r successes in a negative binomial
experiment.
In connection with repeated Bernoulli trials, we are sometimes interested in the number of the
trial on which the kth success occurs.
The negative binomial random variable and distribution are based on an experiment satisfying
the following conditions:
• The experiment consists of x repeated trials.
• Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of these outcomes a
success and the other, a failure.
• The probability of success, denoted by θ, is the same on every trial.
• The trials are independent. The experiment continues until k successes are observed,
where k is specified in advance.

Formula
P(X =x ) = nCxpxqn-x
Where; n = number of trials
x = the number of successes in n
trials
p = the numerical value of success
q = the numerical value of failure

Example
1. If the probability is 0.40 that a child exposed to a certain contagious disease will catch it,
what is the probability that the tent child exposed to the disease will be third to catch it?

Solution.
Substituting n = 10, x = 3, p = 0.40, q = 0.6 into the formula for the negative binomial
distribution, we get;
P(X=x) = 10-1C3-1 (0.4)3(0.6)10-3

P(X = 3) = 9C2(𝟎.𝟒)𝟑(𝟎.𝟔)𝟕

P(X = 3) = 0.0645

2. Bob is a high school basketball player. He is a 70% free throw shooter. That means his
probability of making a free throw is 0.70. During the season, what is the probability that Bob
makes his third free throw on his fifth shot?

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Solution.
Substituting n = 5, x = 3, p = 0.7 and q=0.3 into the formula
for the negative binomial distribution, we get;

P(X=x) = 5-1C3-1 (𝟎. 𝟕)𝟑(𝟎.𝟑𝟎)𝟓−𝟑

P(X = 3) = 4C2(𝟎.𝟕)𝟑(𝟎.𝟑)𝟐

P(X = 3) = 0.18522

Exercises
1. A community is exposed to HIV. If the probability is 50% that an individual in the
community exposed to HIV, what is the probability that the 8th individual exposed to HIV will
be the 2nd to catch it?

2. Tamba is a goalkeeper for Economics year two. The probability that he makes a save
from a shot is 70%. During a match against mainstream social sciences, what is the probability
that Tamba makes his third save on the ninth shot he faced?
3. Akutae is required to sell candy bars to raise money for the 6th grade field trip. There
are thirty houses in the neighborhood, and Akutae is not supposed to return home until five
candy bars have been sold. So the child goes door to door, selling candy bars. At each house,
there is a 0.4 probability of selling one candy bar. What’s the probability of selling the last
candy bar at the 11th house? What’s the probability of Akutae finishing on or before the 8th
house?

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