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201 views15 pagesProbability Chapter 1 Part 2 (Kumbhojkar)
Uploaded by
Pratik gaikwadCopyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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/ 15
i Ce
signal Analysis Q-31) Probability
10,
nN
‘aperson is known to hit the target 3 out of 4 shots, whereas another person is known to hit the target
poutof 3 shots. Find the probability of target boing hit when they both try (Ans. : 11/12]
itthree dice are thrown, find the probability of that the total score will be 12. [Ans.: 1/9]
;\sixfaced dice is so biased that itis twice as likely to show an even number as an odd number when
[tis thrown twice. What is the probability that (i) both the numbers are aces, (ii) the sum of the
both the numbers are equal, (iv) the sum of the two numbers is 10, (v) the sum
(Hint: If P (odd) = x, P (even) = 2x and P(1) + P(2) +... + P(6)
+ 9x=1) (Ans. : (i) 1/81, (li) 2/27, (ii) § /27, (iv) 1/9, (¥) 4/9)
‘abag contains 6 white and 9 black balls. Four balls are drawn at random twice. Find the probability
thatthe first draw will give 4 white balls and the second draw will give 4 black balls if (i) the balls are
replaced, (i) the balls are not replaced before the second draw. _[ Ans. : (i) 6/5915, (Ii) 3/715]
4. Three groups of children contain respectively 3 girls and 1 boy. 2 girls and 2 boys and 1 girl and
boys. One child is selected at random from each group. Find the probability that the selected
children will contain 1 girl and two boys. [Ans. : 13/32]
Anum contains 3 red balls and 5 black balls, um Il contains 2 red and 6 black balls. A die is tossed.
lfanace appears on the die, the first urn is selected otherwise the second urn is selected and a ball
isdrawn. Find the probability of getting red ball [Ans. : 13/48]
Aboyhas 5 blue marbles and 4 white marbles in his left pocket and 4 blue and 5 white marbles in his
fight pocket. He transfers one marble blindly from his left pocket to the right pocket and draws one
marble from the right pocket. What is the probability that it will be (i) blue, (i) white ?
[ Ans. : (i) 41/90, (ii) 49/90]
‘Acommittee of 4 persons is to be selected from 3 mathematicians, 4 physicists, 2 statisticians and 1
chemist. Find the probability that in the committee their will be :
(one from each category, (ii) the chemist, (ii) at least one statistician, (iv) at least one physicist.
[Ans. : (i) 4/35, (ii) 2/5, (ii) 2/3, (iv) 13/ 14]
A student appears for an examination in four subjects A, B,C, D, with probabilities of passing 4/5,
3/4,5/6 and 2/3 respectively. For success in the examination, he must pass in A and in atleast two
sther subjects. Find the probability of his success. [ Ans. : 61/90]
AA speak truth in 75% cases and B in 80% cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to
contradict in narrating the same incidence. [Ans.: P(A)+P(B)+P(A)+P(B), 35%]
Anum contains 10 white and 3 black balls. Another urn contains 3 white and 5 black balls. Two balls
ate transferred from the first urn to the second urn and then one ball is drawn from the latter. What is
the probability that the ball drawn is white 7 [ Ans, :5/26]
ithe probability of success is 1/20. How many trials are necessary in order that the probability of at
‘one success is just greater than 1/2? [Ans. : 2]
How many tosses of a fair coin are required so that the probability of getting at least one head is
875%? (Ans. :3]
Ifthe probability of success in a trial is 0-01, how many trials are necessary in order that the probability
Of at least one success is greater than half ? [Ans. : 69}
Alot contains 1% of defective items. What would be the number of items in a random sample, so that
‘he probability of finding at least one defective in it is at least 0-95 ? [Ans, : 298 ]
De Random Signal Analysis (1-32) baby
7. Examples on Repeated Trials
Example 1: A and B toss a fair coin alternately. A starts. Find their probabilities of winning the toss,
Solution : A can win in the first throw or in the third throw or in the fifth throw and so on.
Thus, A can win the following cases A (wins), A (loses), B (loses), A (wins); |
ly.
ie. A, ABA, ABABA, ..... and the game can continue infini
(A)+P(AB A)+P(ABABA)+
P(Awinning) =
chances of winning are 9 : 8’ (M.U, 1998, 2002)
Solution : Total number of cases = 6 x 6 = 36. |
Number of favourable cases = 4. [ They are (6, 3), (5,,4), (4, 5), (3, 6) ]
|
Sat 128.
exetos 5 =1-228
P(success) == == =. Pifallure) = 1-5 = 5
Now, A can win in the following cases :- A (wins) ; A (loses) B (loses) (A wins) |
le. A+ABA+ABABAt.....
Deon ond 98 8 8.8 1
Broo eed 2 38 8.81.
MD sy oso G59 5 0°
|
Since there are only two events — either A wins or B wins.
P(Bwins) = 1- P(Awins) -1--2- ©,
17 17 Vv
Ft eerie VI
, _ Aand B throw a fair die alternately. A starts. One who throws 6 first wins. Find their probabilities! I
their winning the game. [Ans. :6/11, 5/1)
A and B throw a pair of unbiased dice alternately and one who throws 10 wins the game. If A
show that their chances of winning are in the ratio 12 : 11. signal Analysis (1-33) Probability
B throw a coin alternately. The one who throws head first wins. A starts. Find the probabilities
3. Aand
of their winning the game. [ Ans. 22/3; 1/3)
‘and B throw alternately a pair of dice. A wins if he throws 6 before B throws 7 and B wins if the
4 prows Tbefore A throws 6. If A begins find their chances of winning the game.
[ Ans, : 30/61, 31/61]
5 ABC throw a fair coin in this order. One who throws head first wins. Find the probabilities of their
winning. [Ans.:4/7,2/7,1/7]
fg AB.Cthrow a fair dle in that order. A starts. One who throws an ace first wins. Find their probabilitios
of winning. [Ans. : 36/91, 30/91, 35/91]
7, A.B.C draw a card in that order from a well-shutfled pack of 52 cards. First to draw a diamond wins.
Find their probabilities of winning. [Ans. : 16/37, 12/37, 9/37}
8. Partition of Sample Space
Definition : The events A;, , Ap are said to represent a partition of sample space Sif
@ AOA =0 forall iz (ii) AyUAZU Ag U...UAn=S.
inwords : The events A,, Ao, ...... An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive i.e. when the experiment
is periormed one and only one of the events A; occurs and must occur.
For example, in tossing of a die the events Ay ={1, 2}, Aa = (3, 4, 5), Aa= (6)
represent a partition of the sample space S. However. By = (1, 2, 3), Bz = (3, 4}, Ps
&,=(6,5,6}donot represent a partition (why 2). Also, Cy = {1}. Co={3,4}, Cs = {6}
donot represent a partition. (why ?)
Example : A, B and C are bidding for a contract. Itis believed that A has exactly half the chance than B has.
Bintumis 4 / 5th as likely as C to get the contract. What is the probability for each to get the contract ?
Solution : Let P(A), P(B), P(C) denote the probabilities that A, B, C will get the contract respectively.
Further, let P(C) = x. Then,
4 1
es P(A)=—
P(B)= =x and P(A)= >
Since the three events partition the sample space
Wisi xe xml Pio Ain 6 Gaakmeet
Beis 11
PiAy= 2 PB)=% P(o)= 5.
Theorem On Total Probability
Let Ay, Ap, Ap... Ap be a partition of $ and B be some event defined on S. Then,
© P(B) = P(B/ Ay) x P(Ay) + P(B/ Az) x P (Ag) + 2 + P(BI An) x P(An)
We accept this theorem without proof.
Pe, i We denote the probabilities P(A) by p) and the conditional probabilities
4) by pithen, the above theorem can be statod as
P(B)= py p's + P2P'2+ Pa P's t= PaP'n
a =
Random Signal Analysis (1-34) Probability
Remark : The above theorem is known as the theorem on total probability. In some problems it may by
difficult to evaluate P(B) directly. But when additional information that A;has occurred is known,
we may evaluate P(B/ A) and use the above theorem to find P(B).
Example 1: Ina box there are four tags numbered 1, and six tags numbered 2. There are two urns Uj ang
Up containing 3 red and 7:black balls and 6 red and 2 black balls respectively. One tag is drawn from the
box and one ball is drawn from the urn whose number is found on the tag drawn. Find the probability tha
a red ball is drawn.
Solution : Let 8 = drawing a red ball,
A; = drawing a tag bearing number 1 ‘Az = drawing a tag bearing number 2.
Py=P(Ay)= 4/10, pz = P(Az)= 6/10
p= P(B/A:)=3/10, p'2=P(BLA2)= 8/10.
Ape ot sO 60
aeeais oot le = = 066,
Bide Goo Kt Ko aa
Example 2 : In an experiment a coin is tossed. If it shows head, then a die is tossed and the resultis
recorded. If the coin shows tail, two dice are thrown and their sum is recorded. Find the probability that the
number recorded will be 4.
Soluti
The number 4 will be recorded in the following two ways.
(i) The coin shows head and a single die is thrown which shows 4.
P(W)=% and Oe Pigetting 4) =.=
(ii) The coin shows tail and a pair of dice is thrown which shows (3, 1), (2, 2), (1, 3). (See table of Ex
8 on page 1-23)
PIN=5 and P=. P(getingay= 2. 3-4
‘ if 1 3 1
By the theorem of total probability, P (getting 4) = += 5-1.
Example 2 : Four roads lead away from a jail. A prisoner trying to escape from the jail selects a road#
random. If road Ais selected, the probability of escaping is 1/8, for road B, itis 1/6, for road Citis 1/4 am
for road Ditis 9/10.
What is the probability that a prisoner will succeed in escaping from the jail ? (M.U, 2005
Solution : Let E= Success in Escaping.
P; = selecting road A, pp = selecting road B,
Pa = selecting road C,
Pr=P(A)=1/4,
Ps = selecting road D.
P2= P(B)= 1/4,
P3=P(C)=1/4, Py=P(D)=1/4.
py'=P(E/A)=1/8, pe = P(E/B)=1/6,
ps! = P(E/C)= 1/4,
Pa’ = P(E/ D) =9/10.
= P(E)= P:P1'+ Pe Po'+ Ps Pa'+ Pa py!
48
+2)-7.8 aus)
10) 4° 120 ~ 480° J Gece
Random Signal Analysis (1-35) Probability
:
4. The probabilities that three students 4, B and C will pass the common entrance test for engineering
| are 4/9, 2/9 and 1/3 respectively. The probabilities that they will get admission in the same
engineering college are 3/10, 1/2 and 4/5 respectively.
Find the probability that they will get admission in the same engineering college. [ Ans. : 23/45]
| 2. The chances that A, 8 and C will be the Education Minister of Government of India are in the ratio
| 4:1 :2. The probabilities that they will introduce reservations in professional colleges for backward
classes are 0:3, 0-8 and 0°5 respectively.
Find the probability that the bill for reservation will be introduced. (Ans. :3/7]
Ina factory an article is produced on three machines. Their respective productions are 300 units by
‘A, 250 units by B and 450 units by C. It is found that the percentages of defective articles for A, B, C
are 1, 1-2 and 2 selected at random from a days production (which are mixed).
+015]
Find the probability that the selected article is defective. [ Ans.
We now state an important theorem known as Bayes’ Theorem. It enables us to evaluate what may
| and II) which contain 2 white and 3 black
it
\be called reverse probabilities. Suppose there are two boxes (
balls; and 3 white and 4 black balls. If a box is chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it, what is the
probability that the ball drawn is white ? We know how to calculate this probability. (Calculate it.) Now,
| consider the question : If the ball drawn is known to be white, what is the probability that it was drawn from
the 1st box ? The question can be answered by Bayes’ Theorem. If the ‘result is known, Bayes’ Theorem
enables us to find the probability of the ‘cause’. For this reason it is also sometimes known as the formula
for the “probability of causes”.
9. Bayes’ Theorem
Let the events Ay, Ap, ....., An represent a partition of the sample space S. Let B be any other event
1,2, ..., mand P(B) #0 then
P(A,)x P(B/ Ai)
J DP(A)) x P(B/A})
4 ‘Ifwewrite p, = P(A,), P2=P(A2), P3 = P(As) --
defined on S. If P(A) #0,
Pl
/B)=
ete.
and py =P(B/A)), —p2=P(B/A), — P's = P(B/ Aa) ..... ete
giithen Bayes’ theorem can be stated as
Proof : We have by conditional probability
P(A, 8)
P(A,/B) = — j
(AL) = ae 0
P(BOA)
But P(B/ A) =—
: Pee oePCAN
P(A, 0B) = P(A,)* P(B/ Ai)
From (i) and (ji), we get Random Signal Anatysit 0:36) Prebetiy
P(A)*P(B/A) _ pip
ne Py
But \B=(BNA)U(BOA) .... (BOA)
2 P{B)=P(BAA) + P(BOA,) +... + P(BOA,)
But P(BNA) = P(A): P(B/A,) etc.
=P; *p', etc.
Hence, trom (Wi), P(A)/e)=——__PePi___
PrP) + Pe Por +PaP'n
Example 1 : There are in 2 bag three true coins and one false coin with head on both sides. A coin is,
‘chosen at random and tossed four times. If head occurs all the four times, what is the probability that tl
false coin was chosen and used ?
Solution: _ P (selecting true coin) = p; = i P (selecting false coin) = pp
P's = Pigetting all heads with true coin) = +++.
4
2
P'2 = P(getting all heads with false coin) = 1-1-
= Required Probabaty = —"2P'2
* PrP's+ P2P'2
: (1/4)+4 _ 16
* (7/4) (1796)+(174)-1 19
‘Example 2: A bag contains 7 red and 2 black balls and another bag contains 4 réd and 5 black balls.
‘ball is transtered trom the first bag to the second bag and then a ball is drawn from the second bag. If
‘bal happens to bé red, find the probability that « black ball was transferred.
‘Solution : We neve Ps = Probability of wansterring black bal ==
P'; = Probability of now drawing @ red ball -4
Pa = Probability of transfering red ball = (ol
g
P= Probability f now drawing rod ball «
Requires Probability § ~ ——PiP's _
PD's PP
rs (3/10) (4/11 12
(37A0)(47%0) + (7710)18710) © 47"
Example 3 : A man speaks truth 3 times out of 5. When dio |e thrown, he states ae.
the probabiity that this event has actualy happened ? ae
or ae Pinta be weaia ts «5 "1 Probabity ofan ace =
Pa Probabity he speaks aio « % = Probabiy of not aco » &
a. 2 a ee =
PrP
PrP's+ PoP'2
y (3/5)(1/6) As Bede
(375)(176)+ (27/5)(176) 3410
(he speaks truth when ace has occured) =
ale
Example 4 : A coin is tossed. If it turns up heads two balls are drawn from urn A otherwise two balls are
drawn from urn B. Urn A contains 3 black and 5 white balls. Urn B contains 7 black and one white ball. What
is the probability that urn A was used, given that both balls drawn are black ?
Solution: We have P= PuH)= 3. Po =Pqr)=2
3,
P'; = P(two black balls from A) = od
2
7
C;
p'z = P(two black balls from B) = ics
2
Pps
Required Probability == ——~-"~——
PrP +P2P'2
Pe VS as2 121A NC ECU
(2/21) + (7-6/2) 6442 48 8
Example 3 : In a certain test there are multiple choice questions. There are four possible answers to each
question and one of them is correct. An intelligent student can solve 90% questions correctly by reasoning
and for the remaining 10% questions he gives answers by guessing. A weak student can solve 20% questions
correctly by reasoning and for the remaining 80% questions he gives answers by guessing, An intelligent
students gets the correct answer, what is the probability that he was guessing ? (M.U. 2004)
Solution : Consider the intelligent student. (oro
Tatil py ansasting by reasoning =~ oe MUe)=- ee
Ba ae oOo }
= i pga
P2 = answering by guessing = 700 - 10°
p;' = answer is correct (by reasoning) = 1
Pp’ = answering is correct (by guessing) = ae
pres sae)
Required Probability = 554 po po’ (9/10)-1+ (1/10) -(1/4)
40a te
? “37/40 37°
Example 6: A bag contains five balls, the colours of which are not known. Two balls were drawn from the
bag ang they were found to be white. What is the probability that all balls are white ? (M.U, 2005)
hite or S white
sae : Since two balls drawn are white, the bag may contain 2 white or 3 white or 4 wt
Wate ee Random Signal Analysis (1-38) Probabiiy, |
Let these events be denoted by Ay, Az, As, Ay respectively. We can assume that the probabilities g
these events are equal.
Let py = P(A), P2=P(A2), P3=P (As), Pa = P(Aa)- |
1
Pi=P2=Ps=Pa=>
Now, two balls out of 5 can be drawn in ®C ways.
Py" = P (drawing two balls when two balls are white) =
Po! = P (drawing two white balls when 3 bais are white) = Te =
2
4
. 5 Cp _ 4x3 _ 12
! = P (drawing 2 white balls when 4 balls hite) = ==2 = =
Psi = P( 19 are white) 5G, 6x4 ~ 20
5,
Pa’ = P (drawing 2 white balls when 5 balls are white) Care eee 20)
5¢, 5-4 20
<. By Baye's theorem Required Probability
Ss Pa Pas’
~ Pi P1'* P2 P2'+ PaPs'+ Pa Pa
= (1/4) (20/20)
(174)-(2720) + (174) (6/20) + (1/4). (12/20) + (1/4)-
20 20_41
“246412420 40 2°
Example 7 : The contents of three urns are as follows :
2 white balls, 3 black balls and 5 red balls,
3 white balls, 4 black balls and 3 red balls,
5 white balls, 3 black balls and 2 red balls,
One urn is chosen at random and two balls are drawn. They happen to be white and red. What ist
probability that they come from urn 1 or 2 or 3 respectively ?
Solution : Let B= selecting one white and one red ball.
C,=choosingum1, C2=choosingumn2, C3 = choosing um 3.
1 1
P(C)=P(Ca)=P(Cy)= 5 P= P2=Pa= 3
2x5x2_2
10x9 9
(2) ma eyes. Sx9%2 4
C2 Wc, 10x9 5
(2) 5Cy+7C, _sx2x2_2
Cy 10x99
°(2)- 3 (1/3) +(2/9)
B) pyp+P2P'2+ P3p's
(1/3) + (2/9) + (1/3) + (1/5) + (1/3) (2/9)
_ Random Signal Analysis (1-39)
(9) peter selon, 10
B) (2/9)+(1/5)+(2/9) | 29 |
°(S)-
B) pyP\+P2P'2+ PsP
eevee (1/9) 9
(73)-(279) + (173) “20
(SB) = seer aaPs
B) pyP\+P2P'2+P3P's
(1/3)+(2/9) 10
= G73) (2/9) + (1/3)+ (175) + (1/3) (2/9) ~ 29
Example 8: A lot of IC chips is known to contain 3% defective chips. Each chip is tested before delivery but
the tester is not completely reliable. It is known that
(Tester says the chip is good / The chip is actually good) =
detective / The chip is actually defective) = 0-96.
ita tested chip is declared defective by the tester. What is the probability th
Solution: Let Pp; = Chip is defective = 0-03
0-95 and P (Tester says the chip is
at it is actually defective ?
p= Tester says the chip is defective / The chip is defective = 0:96
Pp = Chip is good = 0-97
piy= Tester says the chip is defective / The chip is good = 0-05.
By Bayes’ Theorem,
P(Chip is defective / Tester says it is defective) = Sa
PiP's* PoP?
0-03 + 0-96 = 0.37.
pee
0.03 x 0.96 + 0.97 x 0-05
15% accurate. A person submits to the test
tation of 100,000 where 2000 people
'e conclude about the probability that the person under test has that
(M.U. 2006)
Example 9 : A certain test for a particular cancer is known to be 9
‘and the result is positive. Suppose that a person comes from a popul
suffer from that disease. What can w'
particular cancer ?
Solution : We have
p; = probability that a person ha
= -2000__ 2 _o.02
700,000 100
P2 = probability that a person doe:
=1-0:02 = 0:98
P's = probability that the te
is the cancer
s not have the cancer
tis positive when a person has the cancer
95
Tea
D2 = probability that the test is positive when a person does not have the cancer
= 1-095 = 0:05. Random Signal Analysis (1-40) Probability
PiP's
i i
Seed A] arrears
eae
400 "400 19
meemmesmy oem IST gag Co
100" 100 * 100" 00
Example 10 ; A binary communication transmitter sends data as one of two types of signals denoted by
0 oF 1. Due to noise, sometimes a transmitted 1 is received as 0 and vice versa.
tthe probability thata transmitted 0 is correctly received as 0 is 0-9 and the probability that a transmitted
Vis correctly received as 1 is 0-8 and if the probability of transmitting 0 is 0-45, find the probability that 0
a lisreceived, (i) ais received, (i) a 1 was transmitted given that 1 was received, (iv) a 0 was transmitted
given that a 0 was received, (v) the error has occurred.
Solution : We are given that
(Tq) =a Dis transmitted =
P(T,) =a 1is transmitted =
=1-p,=055
P(Fo/ To) = a Vis received when a 0 was transmitted = 0-9
45
~ P(T)
P(A, /T) = a1 received when a 0 was transmitted
=1-0+ a
P(R,/T,) =a 1 is received when a 1 was transmitted = 0-8
P(Fo/T;) = a0 is received when a 1 was transmitted
=1-08=0-2.
Now, we calculate the required probabilities as follows :
@P.(1 is received) = P (1 is received when 1 is transmitted)
+ P(1 is received when 0 is transmitted)
* POR) = P(R)/Ts)- P(T,) + P (Ry / To) * P(To)
= 08x 055+0-1x0-45 = 0-485
i) P (0 is received) = P (0 is received when 0 is transmitted)
+ P(0is received when 1 is transmitted)
P (Fo! To) P (To) + P(Ay/ T;)* P(Ts)
0:9 x 0-45 + 0-2 x 0-55 = 0515
Now, by Bayes’ Theorem
Gil) P (1 was transmitted given that 1 was received) i.e.
Pin) = PT) PT) _ 08 x0.55
PR) 0-485
(iv) P (0 was transmitted given that 0 was received) i.e.
P(Ro/To)-P(To)
P(To/ Ro) = maa rama
(v) P (Error) =P (0 was received when 1 is transmitted given that 1was transmitted) |
+ P(1 was received when 0 was transmitted given that 0 was transmitted)
a
P (Ro)
Wi
= 0.907 eee
(Error) = (Ro! Ty) PUT) + PUR, / To) PUT)
= 02x 055 +01 x 0-45 = 0-155.
| aplpendrad alle adalat Liteon Aida alg ealer tebe ba
eapectvel. Sao detective items produced by them is 5%, 4%, 3% and 2% respectively. An
ton set random is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by the
smactine Ac (MU. 2008)
sonstion : Lat Py = P(A), P2= P(A2), etc., then we have
PraOl, P2=02, py=03, py= 04
vt p's= P(B/A,). P'2= P(B/A;), etc., then we have
005, p'>=0-04, p'3=0-03, p= 0-02
ss PoP’,
‘Nou, required probability = ——- —2n2 2
Pi P+ P2P'2+ Pa P's+ PaP's
ature 0.2 x 0.04
Gin 0.05» 0.2% 0-04 + 0.3% 0.03 +04 x 0.02
0.008
=—— = 0.27.
0-03
0-4, find P(B/ A). [ Ans. : 12/35)
4. EPIA)=07, P(B)=06, P(A/B)=
2 Arend Ap are two mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of sample space S and if Bis another
qui dained.on S, such that P(A;) = 0°, P(A2) = 0-4 and P(B/ Ay) = 0-4, P(B/ A) = 0°, find
Pe). [ Ans. : 0-44]
2. Abegcontains two coins one of which is a false coin with head on both sides and the other is a true
cain, When 2 coin, taken at random from the bag, is tossed, it gave a head. What Is the probability
‘hat the trus coin was taken and tossed 7 [Ans.:1/3]
1d the other is false with number 6 on alt its
4 Abeg contains two dice, one of which is regular and fair an‘
feces A dice was drawn from the bag and tossed. It gave 6. What is the probability that the dice
Canes was the {aise one 7 (Ans. :6/7)
s Tass identical ume have the sotiowing composiion of iack and write Dale
Fstun : 2 black, 1 white
Second un: 1 black, 2 white
Thieg um =; 2 black, 2 white
ie sacind ot endian cn belle cont Wasi a DrODARINY ASI TS
(Ans. 1/2
white tall 7
om constructed flyover to eohapee, The chance that the design 18 faulty is 08 The
ee ee casos on codes b iaty a oun ahanden, Ln OM. 1m oN
toe thet rire pecoaity st i conapacd because of (aly Sani 7
(M.U, 2009) | Ans, : 0-76)
‘of components from 4 units A, B, C, D in the
7. ‘factory manutacturing television sats gote ite SUPP!y
Ce eminent Bis apc. was ond ato ee oad
as 7
a
1%, 2%, 2% and 3% articles are defective. A television set was chosen at random from the
‘Output and was found to be defective. What is the probability that it came from unit D 7
Random Signal Analysis (1-42)
(Ans. : 21/4
8. Amanhas three coins A, B, C. Ais unbiased. The probability that head will result when Bis tosseq
2/3. The probability that head will result when C is tossed is 1/3. If one of the coins is chosen
fandom and is tossed three times it gave two heads and one tail. Find the probability that the Coin
was chosen. (Ans. :9/25)
9. Acoin is tossed. If it tums up head two balls are drawn from urn A, otherwise two balls are dram,
from um B. Um A contains 3 black and 5 white balls. Urn B contains 7 black and one white ball,
both cases selection is made with replacement. What is the Probability that A was
chosen given thy
both the balls drawn are black. (Ans. : 158)
10. Ina bolt factory, machines A, B, C Produce 25%, 35%, 40% of the total Output and 5%, 4% and 2% g |
‘the output is defective respectively. A bolt is drawn at random and is found to be defective. What iy
the probability that it was produced on machine B. (Ans, : 28/69)
11. For a certain binary communication channel, the probability that a transmitted ‘0’ is received asa v
1s 0-95 while the probability that a transmitted ‘1’ is received as ‘1' is 0.90. If the probability of transmitting
@ 0 is 0-4, find the Probability that (i) a ‘1’ is received, (ii) a ‘1’ was transmitted given that ‘1" was |
received. (M.U. 2007) [ Ans. : (i) 0-56, (ii) 27/28)
12 Abox| contains 5 white balls and 6 black balls. Another box Il contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls ;
A box is selected at random and then a ball is drawn from it. ,
(@ What is the probability that the ball drawn will be white ?
(@ Given that the ball drawn is white, what is the Probability that it came from box | 7 ;
(M.U. 2006) [ Ans. : (i) 83/110, (ii) 25/83) ;
13. Three identical urns have the following composition of black and white balls : 1
Firstum : 3 black, 7 white
Secondum: 4 black, 6 white
Thirdum : 6 black, 4 white
One of the ums is selected at random and one ball is drawn. If the ball drawn is white, find te
Probability that it was drawn from the first urn. [Ans, : 7/17), )
14. The contents of three ums A;, Az, Ag are as follows :
A; 21ed balls and 1 black ball
Az : 316d balis and 2 black balls,
Ag > 146d ball and 1 black ball.
One of the urns is chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. The colour of the ball is found tol /
black. What is the probability that it has be 118/31
15, ’ Random signal Analysis
0-43) Probability
Exer Ix
Short Answer Questions
PN OAR eps
Give a-priori definition of probability
Give a-posteriori definition of probability.
Give axiomatic definition of probability. (M.U. 2007)
Give one example of deterministic experiment and one example of probabilistic experiment.
state the three axioms of probability (M.U. 2008, 09)
Prove that P(®) =Oand P(S)=1
Prove that P(A) = 1- P(A)
state the law of adcition of probabilities for two events and for three events
(M.u. 2008)
nal probability with one example.
e exclusive, (ii) two events are independent ?
[Ans. : No]
Explain the concepts of joint and of conditio
What do you understand by (i) two events ar
Can two events be simultaneously exclusive and independent ?
State the conditions of mutual independence of three events.
{fAand Bare independent, are A and B also independent ?
Define the partition of a sample space S.
State and prove Bayes’ Theorem. (M.U. 2008, 09)
P(A) =1/3and P(B) = 5/6, prove that P(A B) =" 16.
Can P(AU B) be equal to P(A) + P(B) ? When? [ Ans. : Yes. If AN B=]
Can P(A B) be equal to P(A)“ P(B) ? When ? [ Ans. : Yes. When A, Bare independent. ]
Can P(AU B) be equal to P(A B) ? When ? [ Ans. : Yes. When An B= A=B]
een three events
Explain the difference between total independence and mutual independence betw
A, Band C?
Theory
ib
Zz
Dis
\guish between -
(i) Mutually exclusive and-indep
(ii) Simple and compound events.
(iy Mutualy exclusive and complementary events
(M.U. 2007)
isive and exhaustive events.
le of each
) Certain Event,
endent events.
(iv) Mutually exclu:
Explain the following terms giving one examP
(i) Sample space, (ii) Event, il
(iv) Impossible Event, _(v) Mutually Exclusive Events,
(vi) Independent Events, (vil) exhaustive Events,
(vill) Elementary and Compound Events,
(ix) Complementary Events, (x) Conditional probability. (M.U. 2006, 07) Random Signal Analysis (1-44) Probability
12.
It there are two independent events A and B, the respective probabilities of which are known. Prove
that the probability hat both A and B will happen isthe product ofthe probabilities of thelr happening
respectively.
State and prove the law of addition of probability
State and explain :
(0 A-prion probability of the outcome of an experiment.
(ii) Joint and Conditional Probabilities of events. (M.U. 2007, 08)
Bayes’ Theorem. (M.U, 2004, 06, 07)
An experiment is repeated NV times. During the trial the event A occurs 1 times and during the
‘occurrence of A, the event B occurs nag times.
From the relative frequency approach define the probability of the occurrence of the event A Le, p
(4), the joint probability of the event A and B i.e. P (AB), the conditional probability of the event g
when A has occurred i.e. P (A/ 6) in terms of the frequencies of the occurrences na, nag and N.
P(AB)
P(A)
With the help of Venn diagram, show that the conditional probability of occurrence of an event Ais
given by P(A/B) = ot (M.U. 2008)
Prove that0< P(A) <1.
State and prove the law of multiplication of probability
ItA, B, Care any three events then prove that
P(AUBUC)=P(A)+ P(B)+P(C)- P(A B)
-P(BNC)-P(COA)+ P(ANBNC).
1A, Bare any two events, prove that P(A B) = P(A) - P(A B)
"A, Bare any two events, prove that P(A B)< P(A) < P(A B)<[ P(A) + P(B))
Further, show that P (B/ A) = and P(B/A)=1-P(B/A).
if Ac Bthen prove that P(B/ A) =1 and Pare) =F
(A) P(A B)
ITA, Bare any two events, prove that P(A/B) =
'f A, Bare two mutually exclusive events, P(A/B)
-P(B)”
If A, Bare two independent events, prove that A, B are also independent. (MU. 2007)
It A, Bare independent then prove that A, B are independent. (MU, 2008)
'"Aand Bare independent events, then prove that P(A mB) = P(A). P (B) andif Aand Bare exclusit
events, prove that P(A mB) = p (A).
Prove the following results
- 5) _ PIA)- (AmB)
i) P(ArB) = =n)
0 ANG ee
(i) P(AUB)=1-P(A)-P(B/ A)
Deduce that P(A) + P(B)~1