Probability

Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1
1. Experiment.......................................................................................................................... 1
2. Events ................................................................................................................................. 1
3. Classical (or a Prior) Probability ........................................................................................ 2
4. Number of Favourable Outcomes....................................................................................... 3

Introduction
The word ‘probability’ or ‘chance’ is very frequently used in our day-to-day
conversation. Generally, people have a rough idea about its meaning.
Probability is a concept which numerically measure the degree of uncertainty and
therefore, of certainty of the occurrence of an event.

1. Experiment
An operation which can produce some well-defined outcomes is known as an
experiment.
Random Experiment
If in each trial of an experiment, conducted under identical conditions, the outcomes in
not unique, but may be any of the several possible outcomes then such an experiment is
known as random experiment. In a random experiment, the outcome of each trial
depends on chance.
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes in a random experiment is called a sample space and it
is generally denoted by S. Each element of a sample space is called a sample point.

2. Events
(1) Event : The possible outcomes of a trial are called events. These are also known as cases.
For Examples : (i) When a coin is tossed, the outcome of a head or tail is an event.
(ii) When a die is thrown, the outcome of getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 is an event.

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(2) Equally Likely Events : The events are said to be equally likely if there is no reason to
expect any one in preference to any other.
For Examples : (i) when a die is thrown, then all the six faces are equally likely to come.
(ii) When a card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck, then all the 52 cases are equally
likely to come.
(3) Exhaustive Events : It is the total number of all possible outcomes of any trial.
For Examples : (i) When a coin is tossed, there are two exhaustive events i.e., head and tail.
(ii) When a die is thrown, there are six exhaustive events i.e., any one of the six faces
may appear.
(4) Mutually Exclusive Events : Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if
they cannot happen simultaneously in the trial.
These are also called incompatible events.
For Examples : (i) When a coin is tossed, either head or tail will appear.
(ii) When a die is thrown, any one of six faces will appear.
(5) Elementary (Simple) Event : An outcome of a random experiment is called an
elementary (Simple) event.
For Examples : Consider the random experiment of tossing a coin.
Here, we have two outcomes of this experiment viz.
Head (H) or Tail (T)
Thus, E1 (Getting head (H) on the upper face of the coin) and E2 (Getting tail (T) on the
upper face of the coin) are elementary events associated with the experiment of tossing
a coin.
(6) Compound Event : An event, which is associated to a random experiment is called a
compound event if it is obtained by combining two or more elementary events
associated to the random experiment.
For Example : Consider: “Getting an odd number” in a single throw of a die is a compound
event because it is obtained by three elementary events viz. 1, 3 and 5.

3. Classical (or a Prior) Probability

Let us perform a random experiment.
Let there be n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely cases. Out of these, let
m be favourable to the happening of an event A.
Then, the probability of occurrence of event A, denoted by P(A), is defined as :
Number of favourable cases 𝒏(𝑨) 𝒎
𝑷(𝑨) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 𝒏(𝑺) 𝒏

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Note: (i) When m is the number of favourable cases out of n exhaustive, mutually exclusive
and equally likely cases, then the number of unfavourable cases = n – m.
(ii) Negative of an event: If A is an event associated with random experiment, then “Not
A” is called the negative of A and is denoted by A .

(iii) The probability P(A) that the event A will not happen is given by:

̅ ) = Number of unfavourable cases = 𝒏−𝒎 = 𝟏 − 𝒎 = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑨)

𝑷(𝑨 Number of exhaustive cases 𝒏 𝒏

̅ ) = 𝟏.
Hence, 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑨
It may also be noted that 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐴̅) are non-negative and cannot exceed unity.
Hence, 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1 and 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴̅) ≤ 1.
(iv) (a) When P(A) = 1, then A is called a certain event or sure event. In this case, the
chance of the happening of an event A is cent-per-cent.
(b) When P(A) = 0, then 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1, then A is called an impossible event. In this case,
the chance of non-happening of an event A is cent-per-cent.

4. Number of Favourable Outcomes

(1) 1 Coin : H, T
(2) 2 Coins : HH, HT, TH, TT
(3) 3 Coins : HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
(4) 1 Dice : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
(5) Cards :

Different types of cards in each suit: A king, a queen, a jack, an ace and 9 other cards
numbered from 2 to 10. King, queen and jack are called face cards.

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(6) 2 Dices :

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Note : The total number of outcomes of any event

= (Number of outcomes in one event)(The number of times event is repeated)
e.g., In one throw of a dice the number of outcomes is 6.
And in two throws of a dice the number of outcomes = (6)(2) = 36.
And in three throws of a dice the number of outcomes = (6)(3) = 216.

Question : The probability of an event is greater than or equal to __________ and less than
or equal to __________.
Solution : 0, 1

Question: If P(E) = 0.05, what is the probability of ‘not E’?

Solution : P(E) = 0.05
P(not E) = 1 – 0.05 = 0.95

Question : Find the probability that a number selected at random from the numbers 3, 4, 5,
…, 25 is prime.
Solution : All possible outcomes are 3, 4, 5, …, 25.
Number of all possible outcomes = 23.
Out of these, the prime number are : 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23.
Number of favourable outcomes = 8.
P(getting a prime number) = 8/23.

Question : One card is drawn at random form a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the
probability that the card drawn is either a red card or a king.

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Solution : Since, Total cards = 52
No. of red cards = 26
No. of kings = 4
Since, two cards of king are red and two are black.
Therefore, favourable cards = 26 + 2 = 28

28 7
 P (getting a card either red or king) = =
52 13

Question : In a single throw of a pair of different dice, what is the probability of getting :
(i) a prime number on each dice?
(ii) a total of 9 or 11?
Solution : Total possible cases when two dice are thrown together = 6 × 6 = 36
(i) Favourable cases when both numbers are prime are :
(2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 5), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 5), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 5),
i.e., 9 outcomes

Favourable cases 9 1
P (a prime number on each dice) = = =
Total cases 36 4
(ii) Favourable cases when sum of numbers are 9 or 11 are :
(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (5, 6), (6, 3), (6, 5),
i.e., 6 outcomes

Favourable cases 6 1
P (a total of 9 or 11) = = =
Total cases 36 6

Question: A bag contains 6 red balls and some blue balls. If the probability of drawing a blue
ball is twice that of red ball, find the number of blue balls in the bag.
Solution : No. of red balls = 6
Let no. of blue balls = x
Total no. of possible outcomes = 6 + x (total no. of balls)
No. of favorable outcomes
P(E) =
Total no. of possible outcomes

P(blue ball) = 2 P(red ball)

x 2(6)
or, = or, x = 12
x+6 x+6
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Question : A box contains 5 red marbles, 8 white marbles and 4 green marbles. One marble
is taken out of the box at random. What is the probability that the marble taken out will
be (i) red, (ii) white, (iii) not green?
Solution : Total number of marbles in the box = 5 + 8 + 4 = 17
no. of red marbles 5
(i) P(red) = total number of marbles = 17
no. of white marbles 8
(ii) P(white) = total number of marbles = 17
no. of green marbles 4
(iii) P(green) = total number of marbles = 17
4 13
P (not green) = 1 – P(green) = 1 − 17 = 17

Question : 12 defective pens are accidentally mixed with 132 good ones. It is not possible to
just look at a pen and tell whether or not it is defective. One pen is taken out at random
from this lot. Determine the probability that the pen taken out is a good one.
Solution : Number of good pens = 132
Number of defective pens = 12
 Total pens = 132 + 12 = 144

132 11
P (getting good pen) = =
144 12

Question : Two different dice are tossed together. Find the probability :
(i) that the number on each die is even.
(ii) that the sum of numbers appearing on the two dice is 5.
Solution : The total number of outcomes when two dice are tossed together is 36.
The sample space is as follows :
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

(i) Let E be the event ‘that number of each die is even’

Favourable outcomes = {(2,2), (2,4), (2,6), (4,2), (4,4), (4,6), (6,2), (6,4), (6,6)}

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 Probability that the number on each dice is even P(E)
Number of favourable outcomes 9 1
= = 36 = 4
Total number of outcomes

(ii) Let F be the event

Favourable outcomes = {(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1)}
Probability that the sum of the numbers appearing on the two dice is 5
Number of favourable outcomes 4 1
= = 36 = 9
Total number of outcomes

Question: Red kings, queens and jacks are removed from a deck of 52 playing cards and then
well-shuffled. A card is drawn from remaining cards. Find the probability of getting (i)
king, (ii) a red card, (iii) a spade.
Solution: If red kings, queens and jacks are removed from deck of 52 cards, then
n(S) = 46
(i) Let A be the favourable outcomes of getting a king, then n(A) = 2
P(A) = n(A)/n(S)
= 2/46
= 1/23
(ii) Let B the favourable outcomes of getting a red card, then n(B) = 20
P(B) = n(B)/n(S)
= 20/46
= 10/23
(iii) Let C be the favourable outcomes of getting a spade, then n(C) = 13
P(C) = n(C)/n(S)
= 13/46

Question: A game consists of tossing a one-rupee coin 3 times and noting its outcome each
time. Hanif wins if all tosses give the same result i.e., three heads or three tails, and
loses otherwise. Calculate the probability that Hanif will lose the game.
Solution: Let’s find the probability of losing of game by Hanif.
We know that the probability of event to happen
Number of favourable outcomes
𝑃(𝐸) = Total number of outcomes

The total possible outcomes on tossing the 3 coins are listed below
{HHH, TTT, HTH, HHT, THH, THT, TTH, HTT} = 8

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 The number of possible outcomes to get three heads or three tails = 2
The probability that Hanif will win the game
Number of favourable outcomes 2 1
= =8=4
Total number of outcomes

1 3
The probability that Hanif will lose the game is = 1 − =
4 4
3
Hence, the probability that Hanif will lose the game is .
4

Question: The probability of guessing the correct answer to certain question is p/12. If the
probability of not guessing the correct answer to same question is 3/4, the value of p is :

p
Solution: The probability of guessing the correct answer to certain question is .
12
3
The probability of not guessing the correct answer to same question is .
4
Now, P(Event Happening) + P(Event not happening) = 1

P 3 1
 = 1− =
12 4 4
12
P = =3
4

Question: A group consists of 12 persons, of which 3 are extremely patient, other 6 are
extremely honest and rest are extremely kind. A person from the group is selected at
random. Find the probability that the selected person is (i) extremely patient (ii)
extremely kind or honest.
Which of the above you will prefer more.
Solution: Since the group consists of 12 persons, sample space consists of 12 persons.
 Total number of possible outcomes = 12
Let A denote event of selecting persons which are extremely patient.
 Number of outcomes favourable to A is 3.
Let B denote event of selecting persons which are extremely kind or honest.
Number of persons which are extremely honest is 6.
Number of persons which are extremely kind is 12 – (6 + 3) = 3
 Number of outcomes favourable to B = 6 + 3 = 9.

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 (i) Probability of selecting a person who is extremely patient

Number of outcome favourable A 3 1

P(A) = = =
Total number of the possible outcome 12 4

(ii) Probability of selecting a person who is extremely kind or honest

Number of outcome favourable B 9 3

P(B) = = =
Total number of the possible outcome 12 4

An extremely honest or kind person is preferred more as the probability of selection is

more than that of an extremely patient person. [As P(B) > P(A)]

Question: The probability of selecting a red ball at random from a jar that contains only red,
blue and orange balls is 1/4. The probability of selecting a blue ball at random from the
same jar is 1/3. If the jar contains 10 orange balls, find the total number of balls in the
jar.
Solution: Let E1, E2 and E3 be the events of drawing a red, blue and orange ball, respectively.

1 1
We know, P(E1) = and P(E2) =
4 3
Therefore,
P(E3) = 1 – P(E2) – P(E1)

1 1
P(E3) = 1 − −
3 4
5
P(E3) =
12
We also know,

Number of orange balls

P(E3) =
Total number of balls
5 10
or, =
12 Total number of balls
or, Total number of balls = 24
Hence, the total number of balls in the jar is 24.

Question : A bag contains 18 balls out of which x balls are red.

(i) If one ball is drawn at random from the bag, then what is the probability that it is a
red ball?

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 (ii) If 2 more red balls are put in the bag then probability of drawing a red ball will be
9/8 times that of probability of red ball coming in part (i), find the value of x.
Solution : Bag contains = 18 balls
No. of red balls = x

Favourable ball
Probability of red ball =
Total no. of ball
x
(i) P (red ball) =
18
(ii) If two more red ball added
No. of red ball = x + 2
Total no. of balls = 18 + 2 = 20

9
Probability of drawing red ball = Probability of red ball coming in part (i)
8
x+2 9 x
 = 
20 8 18
x+2 x
or, =
20 16
or, 16(x + 2) = 20x
or, 16x + 32 = 20x
or, 20x – 16x = 32
or, 4x = 32
or, x=8
Hence, the value of x = 8

Question: What is the probability that a non-leap year has 53 Fridays?

Solution: There are 365 days in a leap year = 52 weeks + 1 day.
52 weeks have 52 Fridays.
So, the last 1 day can be any of the seven days of the week out of which only one day is
Friday.
So, Probability that a non-leap year has 53 Fridays

Number of favourable outcomes 1

= =
Total number of outcomes 7

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Question: Find the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays.
Solution: Number of days in leap year = 366
A week has 7 days and total days are 366.

366
Number of Sundays in a leap year = = 52 Sundays + 2 days
7
Total outcomes with 2 days = (Sunday, Monday), (Monday, Tuesday), (Tuesday,
Wednesday), (Wednesday, Thursday), (Thursday, Friday), (Friday, Saturday),
(Saturday, Sunday) = 7
Number of outcomes without Sunday = 5

2
Probability of leap year with 53 Sundays =
7
2
Hence, Probability of leap year with 53 Sundays is .
7

Question: Three unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting (i)
exactly 2 heads, (ii) at least 2 heads, (iii) at most 2 heads.
Solution: When 3 coins are tossed simultaneously, all possible outcomes are HHH, HHT,
HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT.
Total number of possible outcomes = 8.
(i) Let 𝐸1 be the event of getting exactly 2 heads.
Then, the favourable outcomes are HHT, HTH, THH.
Number of favourable outcomes = 3.
3
∴ P(getting exactly 2 heads) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 8.

(ii) Let 𝐸2 be the event of getting at least 2 heads.

Then, 𝐸2 is the event of getting 2 or 3 heads.
So, the favourable outcomes are
HHT, HTH, THH, HHH.
Number of favourable outcomes = 4.
4 1
∴ P(getting at least 2 heads) = P(E2) = 8 = 2.

(iii) Let E3 be the event of getting at most 2 heads.

Then E3 is the event of getting 0 or 1 head or 2 heads.
So, the favourable outcomes are
TTT, HTT, THT, TTH HHT, HTH, THH.
Number of favourable outcomes = 7.
7
∴ P(getting at most 2 heads) = P (E3) = 8.

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