Prashant Shah - SuperTrend
Prashant Shah - SuperTrend
Developed by Olivier Seban, Super trend is an indicator plotted on the price chart like a moving
average.
1: Range-price.
In every bar or candle, we have four prices - Open, High, Low, Close.
We have the option to select any price of above to define the trend.
For example, we may define an uptrend as today’s close being above yesterday’s close.
We can also calculate range price of every bar. It is also known as Average price or Mid-price.
Do you notice any difference between the two charts? It is obvious that the curve with mid-price is
relatively smooth. It should be apparent that the range should expand for the Range-price average
line to move.
2. Now that the first component is discussed, we will shift focus to the second component - ATR
We have discussed ATR in past threads (ADX and ATR%). ATR (Average True Range) is an indicator
developed by J. Welles Wilder.
His work is used by many others in developing different studies. Our fraternity always remains
thankful to him for his amazing contribution.
Remember ATR calculates true range of every bar. It measures the volatility of an instrument over
last several period.
E.g. if 10-day ATR of Reliance is 40 points, the average range of Reliance price over last 10 candles is
40 points, right?
Trend even if bullish, volatility can interrupt and make it difficult for us to follow it. To be able to
read trend clearly, we need to discount the vol.
Let us plot a line equal to ATR value over last 10-period. Let’s call it a Trend indicator.
The price in the above formula is the Median price or Range price. So, we will calculate Trend
indicator using the Range price.
If ATR is 40, and the median price is 1545 then Trend indicator value would be 1545-40 = 1505.
1- ATR is not sufficient as volatility can expand and the indicator line can turn volatile. To handle this,
we can multiply ATR value by a constant. Let us multiply it by 3 and place a line at 3x of ATR value.
You have to define two variables in the calculation - the Trend & Multiplier.
Recommended values are 10 and 3. We take a look at the ATR of last 10 bars and multiply it by 3.
Bullish Trend indicator Value = Range price - (3 x ATR)
Example: 1545 - (3 x 40) = 1425
Clear so far?
Price is bullish as long as it is trading above bullish value and bearish as long as it is trading below
bearish value. So, this line can act as a trend filter. It can also be used a trailing stop-loss mechanism.
What if the trend is up & the volatility increases too? In such a scenario, the stop-loss can get lower.
If we allow this to happen, the trend indicator line will be very volatile and have little value from
practical trading perspective as the stop loss can theoretically move below previous level.
The Solution to this problem is to make this line go flat when volatility rises. See below image.
If recent volatility is high, super trend line will be flat. Vice versa if price is trading below Super trend
line.
Super Trend is a volatility-based trend indicator. Remember, super trend line increases when range
price is bullish, & volatility does not expand. Similarly, super trend line falls when the range is
bearish and the volatility has not expanded. In other instances, it remains flat.
A rising Super Trend line is bullish and a falling line is bearish. Flat line indicates either unfavourable
close (sideways) or a volatile phase. Trend is bullish as long as price is trading above super trend
indicator, and bearish as long as it is trading below the indicator.
The indicator can be useful for identifying trend, or trailing stop-loss etc. It considers volatility and
goes flat are its important features.
Understood the logic? 10 and 3 are the default values. What if I chose multiplier 2 instead of 3? How
will that change its behaviour?
Spend time on understanding behaviour of indicator. You may get ideas from that. Trading comes
later. Purpose of my posts is to promote logical understanding of indicators, think beyond buy-sell
nature of indicators.