Post-Cold War Geopolitics

IR # 202: Introduction to Political Geography

Dr. A.S.M. Ali Ashraf

Associate Professor
Department of International Relations
University of Dhaka
Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

Email: aliashraf79@gmail.com
Lecture Outline
 End of Cold War
 Next configuration of global political system
 Emergence of Clash of Civilizations as a
framework for analysis
 Review of Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations
thesis
 Edward Said’s critique of Clash of Civilizations
thesis
 Anatol Lieven’s analysis of U.S. foreign and
security policy in the post-Cold War era

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Required Readings
 Huntington, Samuel P. (1993). The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign
Affairs, Vol, 72, No. 3, pp. 22-49. Reprinted in The Geopolitics
Reader, edited by G.O. Tuathail, S. Dalby, and P. Routledge
(London: Routledge, 2006), pp. 136-144.
 Said, Edward (2001). The Clash of Ignorance, The Nation, October
22, 2001, pp. 1-4. Reprinted in The Geopolitics Reader, edited by
G.O. Tuathail, S. Dalby, and P. Routledge (London: Routledge,
2006), pp. 146-149.
 Lieven, Anatol (2004). America, Right or Wrong (NY: Oxford).
Reprinted in The Geopolitics Reader, edited by G.O. Tuathail, S.
Dalby, and P. Routledge (London: Routledge, 2006), pp. 165-173.
 Iseri, Emre (2009). The US Grand Strategy and the Eurasian
Heartland in the Twenty-First Century. Geopolitics, Vol. 14, pp. 26-
46.

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About Samuel P. Huntington:
 Education:
 MS from Chicago
 Ph.D. from Harvard

 Teaching:
 Taught at Harvard and Columbia Universities

 Major Books:
 The Soldier and the State (1957)
 The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century
(1991)
 The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order (1996)
 This book was expanded from his 1993 article titled “The Clash of Civilizations” published
in Foreign Affairs journal

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The Next Pattern of Conflict
 World politics has entered a new phase. Existing theories of post-
Cold War era focus on the following ideas:
 End of history
 Return of traditional rivalries between nation-states
 Decline of the nation-states from the conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism

 Huntington argues that the nature of post-Cold War conflict will

neither be ideological nor economic. In his words:

 In the past few centuries, the conflict between princes, nation-

states, and ideologies were primarily conflict within Western
civilization. The post-Cold War conflict will be between the
Western and non-Western civilizations and within the non-
Western civilizations.
 “The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between
civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”
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The Nature of Civilizations
 According to Huntington:

 “A civilization is a cultural entity… [It] is the highest cultural

grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity
people have…it is defined both by common objective elements,
such as language, history, religion, customs, institutions, and
by the subjective self-identification of people.”

 A civilization may have a large number of people [Ex: China]

or a very small number of people [Ex: Anglophone Caribbean]

 “A civilization may include several nation states, as is the case

with Western, Latin American and Arab civilizations, or only
one, as is the case with Japanese civilization.”

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Why Civilizations will Clash
 The world will be shaped by the interactions among seven
or eight major civilizations. These include:
 Western; Confucian; Japanese; Islamic; Hindu; Slavic-Orthodox; Latin
American; and African

 Six Reasons why civilizations will fail:

 First, there are sharp differences between civilizations. Over the
centuries, civilizational differences have produced some of the most
prolonged and most violent conflicts.
 Second, civilizational consciousness and differences are intensified
among people. This is evident in French people’s hostile attitude
toward African immigrants but receptive attitude toward immigrants
from ‘good’ European Catholic countries. Similarly, Americans are
more positive about Canadian investment than about anti-Japanese
investment

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 Third, religious fundamentalism is increasing among the young,
college-educated, middle-class technicians, professionals and
business persons. Fundamentalist movements are found in
Western Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism Hinduism, and Islam.
 Fourth, civilization-consciousness is increasing among the people.
This evident in current trends toward “Asianization” in Japan,
Hinduization of India, Russianization of Boris Yeltsin post-Soviet
Russia, and re-Islamization of the Middle East. In addition, de-
Westernization and indigenization of elites is occurring in many
non-Western countries.
 Fifth, cultural characteristics are less mutable and less easily
compromised. For instance, Russians cannot become Estonians. A
person can be half-French and half-Arab, but it is more difficult to
be half-Catholic and half-Muslim
 Economic regionalism may increase civilization-consciousness.
Examples include European Community and NAFTA. Due to it
unique civilization and culture, Japan failed to promote regional
integration in East Asia 8
The Fault Lines between
Civilizations
 The fault lines between civilizations are replacing the
political and ideological boundaries of the Cold War
 The peoples in northern and western European countries
are Protestant or Catholic. By contrast, the peoples in the
southern Europe are either Orthodox Christian or Muslim
historically belonging to the Ottoman or Tsarist empires.
 “Conflict along the fault lines between Western and Islamic
civilizations has been going on for 1300 years.” Examples
include:
 After the founding of Islam, Arab and Moorish surge west and north
ended in tours in 732
 From the 11th to 13th century, the Crusaders gained temporary success
in to bring Christianity
 From the 14th to 17th centuries, the Ottoman Turks extended their
control over the Middle East and Balkans
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 After WWII, Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism
replaced western influence
 The United States and its western allies became dependent
on Gulf oil. France fought a bloody war in Algeria in the
1950s; British and French forces invaded Egypt in 1956,
American forces went to Lebanon in 1958
 The warfare between Arabs and the West culminated in the
1990s when the USA sent a massive army in the Persian
Gulf to defend some Arab countries against aggression by
others
 “The century-old military interaction between the West and
Islam I unlikely to decline.” The Gulf War created strong
anti-American feelings among many Muslim nations who
resent the presence of U.S. forces in the holy land.
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Civilization Rallying: The Kin-
Country Syndrome
 Civilization commonality or kin-country syndrome is
replacing political ideology and traditional balance of power
conditions

 It is evident in the post-Cold War conflicts in the Persian

Gulf, the Caucasus and Bosnia.

 “The next world war, if there is one, will be a war between

civilizations.”

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The West versus The Rest
 With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West now
dominates world politics and global institutions.
 Decisions made at the UNSC and IMF reflect the interests of
the West.
 “The West in effect is using international institutions,
military power and economic resources to run the world in
ways that will maintain Western predominance, protect
Western interests and promote Western political and
economic values.” Example includes: U.S.-led and UN-
endorsed coalition defeating Iraq in the First Gulf War.
 Countries have three policy options to deal with the West:
 Pursue an isolationist policy as Burma and North Korea have taken
 Bandwagon with the West as Japan does
 Balance the Western Power, as China and Russia do
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The Torn Countries
 According to Huntington, “Some other countries have a fair
degree of cultural homogeneity but are divided over
whether their society belongs to one civilization or another.
These are torn countries.”

 Huntington provides three examples of Torn countries:

 Turkey: Turkey is a predominantly Muslim country but asserts
a Western and secular identity. It’s application for European
Union membership is almost rejected.

 Mexico: Mexico is a Latin American country but wishes to

imitate North American identity.

 Russia: After the end of Cold War, Russian leader Borit Yeltsin
took extensive reforms to westernize Russia.

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 Huntington argues that “Torn countries” are trying to
redefine their identities.

 Three requirements are needed for a country to redefine its

identity. These are:

 (a) Supportive political and economic;

 (b) Mass public’s willingness;
 (c) Willingness of the recipient civilization’s dominant groups.

 Mexico has all three elements, Turkey has the two, while
Russia perhaps lacks all of them.

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The Confucian-Islamic Connection
 The Confucian-Western connection has emerged as a
challenge to Western interests, values, and power. While
the major Western countries and Russia were reducing
military expenditures in the post-Cold War era, China,
North Korea and several Middle East countries were
expanding their military capabilities.

 The drive for clandestine nuclear weapons acquisition by

North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Algeria indicate the
emergence of ‘Weapons States’

 Among the non-Western countries, China’s military build

up is of central concern. Backed up by strong economic
performance, China is “developing power-projection
capabilities” in the South China sea.
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Implications for the West
 Short-Term Policy:
 Promote greater cooperation and unity between European and
North American components of Western civilization;
 Incorporate East European and Latin American societies into
West;
 Maintain cooperative relations with Russia and Japan;
 Prevent escalation of local inter-civilization conflicts into major
inter-civilization wars;
 Limit the expanding military strength of Confucian & Islamic
states; Exploit differences and conflicts between Confucian and
Islamic civilizations;
 Maintain Western military supremacy;
 Strengthen international institutions which promote legitimate
Western interests.

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 Long-Term Policy:
 Some non-Western civilizations want to become modern
without becoming western.
 The West will increasingly have to accommodate with non-
Western modern civilization. This will necessitate maintaining
economic and military power to protect Western interests and
values.
 The West will also need to develop a profound understanding
of the core religious and philosophical principles of other
civilizations.

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About Edward Said
 Education:
 BA from Princeton

 MA and Ph.D. from Harvard

 Teaching:
 Taught at Columbia, Harvard, Stanford, Johns Hopkins,
and Yale

 Major Book:
 Orientalism (1978)

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The Clash of Ignorance
 This article is a critique of Huntington.
 Said argues that Huntington offers a ‘vague notion’ of
civilization identity and conflict between Islam and the
West. Huntington relies on an earlier writing by Bernard
Lewis’s characterization of a conflict between West and
Islam.
 Neither Huntington nor Lewis looks into the “internal
dynamics and plurality of every civilization.”
 Said focuses on the large Muslim immigrant communities in
West and argues that “Islam is no longer on the fringes of
the West but at its center.”

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Anatol Lieven
 Education:
 BA from Princeton

 MA and Ph.D. from Harvard

 Teaching:
 Taught at Columbia, Harvard, Stanford, Johns Hopkins,
and Yale

 Major Book:
 Orientalism (1978)

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Anatol Lieven
 Education:
 Ph.D., Pol. Science, Cambridge University

 Career:
 Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, USA
 Chair of International Relations and Terrorism Studies at
Kings College, London
 Editor, Int’l Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London

 Major Book:
 America Right or Wrong
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America Right or Wrong (2004)
 Main arguments:

 According to Lieven, “Aspects of American nationalism

imperil both the nation’s global leadership and its
success in the struggle against Islamist terrorism and
revolution.”

 Lieven criticizes the ‘unilateral turn’ in U.S. foreign policy

under George W. Bush (Junior Bush). Evidence of
unilateralism can be found in:
 Bush’s disregard for European opposition to the 2003 Iraq invasion
 U.S. opposition to Kyoto Protocol on climate change

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American nationalism
 Neoconservative and realist scholars argue that U.S.
behavior in the world and U.S. exceptionalism stem from
the country’s control over “greater power and
responsibility.”
 Following the end of Cold War, the United States not only
dominates the world militarily, but also culturally and
economically
 During the Cold War period, the United States supported
the construction of an international order at the core of
which remains several international institutions. Under the
Junior Bush regime, the United States appeared to discard
those institutions and behaved like an “unsatisfied even
revolutionary power.”

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Two Souls of American Nationalism
 Lieven argues that there are two souls of
American nationalism. These are:
 The American Creed/American Thesis:
 It promotes a set of democratic, legal and individualist
beliefs
 These principles form the core of American civic
nationalism
 The American Antithesis
 This has an ethno-religious roots, coming from diffuse
mass of identities including nativist sentiments of the
original White population in the South
 Agendas of the ethnic lobbies also fuel such ethno-religious
nationalism 24