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Poisson Distribution

The document provides background information on the Poisson distribution, including its key properties and assumptions. It then gives examples of how to calculate probabilities of certain events occurring using the Poisson distribution formula. Specifically, it shows how to calculate the probability of there being no bacteria in a sample, the probability of two sandstorms occurring in a day, and the probability of three jobs arriving in a one-minute interval. Finally, it discusses the relationship between the binomial and Poisson distributions and how the Poisson can be used to approximate the binomial when the number of trials is large and the probability of success is small.

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94 views4 pages

Poisson Distribution

Uploaded by

MT20622 Nik Nur Zahidah Binti Nik Hassan

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ASSIGNMENT: POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Background of Poisson distribution

Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It used to describe random variables that
count occurrences in a particular time interval or space. The occurrences in each interval can range
from zero to infinity and the mean of occurrence is constant. The interval can be time, distance, area,
volume, or some similar unit. However, average time is known but exact timing of events is random.
The events are independent of each other which mean the occurrence of one event does not affect the
probability another event will occur. The average rate (events per time period) is constant. These two
events cannot occur at the same time. The number of occurrences is proportional to length of the
interval.
The parameter involved in the Poisson distribution is the average (lambda λ). X~P(λ).
Poisson distribution formula:
x −λ
λ e
P ( X=x )=
x!
Where
x is no of occurrence of event in interval
x = 0,1,2,3…
λ = mean number of occurrences in the interval
e is Euler’s constant or the base of natural logarithms
e ≈ 2.71828

If μ is the average number of successes occurring in a given time interval or region in the Poisson
distribution, then the mean is given as; μ= λ
Variance and Std. Deviation in Poisson’s distribution variance is given as; V=σ 2= λ and standard
deviation is given as; Std. dev.=√ σ 2 =𝜎=√ λ
Assumptions for Poisson distribution
1)The probability that an event will occur in a short interval of time or space is proportional to the size
of the interval.
2)In a very small interval, the probability that two events will occur is close to zero.
3)The probability that any number of events will occur in a given interval is independent of where the
interval begins.
4)The probability of any number of events occurring over a given interval is independent of the number
of events that occurred prior to the interval
Application of Poisson distribution with examples
Poisson distribution is discrete probability distribution that is very useful in situations where the
discrete events occur in a continuous manner. The Poisson processes are generally associated with
time, but they do not have to be. This has a huge application in many practical scenarios like
determining car accidents, number of typing errors on a page, spread of an endangered animal in
Africa, failure of a machine in one month, number of goals in a tournament, and number of patients
arriving in an emergency room between 10 and 11 pm.
Example 1:
A large number of 10ml samples are collected from a lake. The mean number of bacteria in 10 ml of
liquid is 5. Find the that a sample taken has no bacteria.
λ=5 per 10 ml
λ x e− λ
P(x) =
x!
50 e−5
P(0) = =0.0067
0!

Example 2:
At a certain desert area, sandstorms occur at random on average once in every 2 days. Find the
probability that in a particular day, sandstorms occur twice.
λ=1 per 2 days
λ=0.5 per 1 day
λ x e− λ
P(x) =
x!
0.52 e−0.5
P(2) = =0.0758
2!

Example 3:
Consider a computer system with Poisson job-arrival stream at an average of 2 per minute. Determine
the probability that in any one-minute interval there will be exactly 3 jobs.
λ=2 per minutes
λ x e− λ
P(x) =
x!
3 −2
2e
P(3) = =0.1804
3!
Poisson approximation with examples
Poisson distribution can be used as approximation to binomial distribution if number of trials is large,
and the probability of success in any given one is small.
n> 50(n is large) and p< 0.1(p is small) λ =np so that it has the same expected value as the binomial
distribution.
A coin flip, even for 100 trials, should be modelled as a Binomial because n >50 which is 100. One
important distinction is a Binomial occurs for a fixed set of trials (the domain is discrete) while a
Poisson occurs over a theoretically infinite number of trials (continuous domain).
Example 1:
If the percentage of people with diabetes in the area is 0.003, then what is the probability that there will
be no infected person in the 1000 neighbourhood of the district?
n = 1000 > 50
p = 0.003 < 0.1
use Poisson approximation to binomial
P(x) = P (X = x) =nCx P x q n−x
= 1000C0 ×(0.003)0× (1 – 0.003)1000 – 0
=1×1× 0.9971000 = 0.0496
λ = np = 1000 × 0.003 = 3
λ x e− λ
P(x) =
x!
0 −3
3 e
P(0) = = 0.0498
0!
Example 2
It is known that 2% of the cells received by a receptionist are wrong numbers. Use a Poisson
approximation to the binomial distribution to determine the probability that among 250 calls four will
be wrong number.
n = 250 > 50
p = 0.02 < 0.1
use Poisson approximation to binomial
P(x) = P (X = x) =nCx P x q n−x
= 250C4 ×(0.02)4 × (1 – 0.02)250− 4
=1.5888275 E+8×0.00000016× 0.98246 = 0.1755
Relation between Binomial and Poisson distributions
The Poisson distribution is actually a limiting case of a Binomial distribution when the number of
trials, n, gets very large and p, the probability of success, is small. As a rule of thumb, if n > 50, p <
0.1 the Poisson distribution can provide a very good approximation to the binomial distribution.
Binomial distribution as shown below.
P(x) = P (X = x) =nCx P x q n−x