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Answer 81713

The document is about probabilities involving three urns containing different combinations of red and white balls. It provides the probabilities of drawing a red or white ball from each urn and calculates the overall probabilities of drawing a red ball (0.4765) and white ball (0.5235) using the law of total probability and Bayes' theorem. It then calculates the probability that the ball is from urn A given that it is red (0.3180).

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46 views2 pages

Answer 81713

The document is about probabilities involving three urns containing different combinations of red and white balls. It provides the probabilities of drawing a red or white ball from each urn and calculates the overall probabilities of drawing a red ball (0.4765) and white ball (0.5235) using the law of total probability and Bayes' theorem. It then calculates the probability that the ball is from urn A given that it is red (0.3180).

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Answer on Question #81713 – Math – Statistics and Probability

Three turns of the same appearance are given as follows urn A contains 5 red and 6
white balls, urn B contains 6 red and 4 white balls, urn C contains 3 red and 5
white balls. An urn is selected at random and ball is drawn from the urn.

Question

(A) What is probability that ball drawn is red, white?

Solution
Let 𝐸𝐴 , 𝐸𝐵 , 𝐸𝐶 and 𝑅 be the events defined as follows:
𝐸𝐴 = urn A is chosen, 𝐸𝐵 = urn B is chosen, 𝐸𝐶 = urn C is chosen, and
𝑅 = ball drawn is red.
Since there are three urns of the same appearance and one of three urns is chosen at
random, therefore
1
𝑃(𝐸𝐴 ) = 𝑃(𝐸𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐸𝐶 ) =
3
The probability of drawing a red ball from urn A is
5 5
𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐴 ) = =
5 + 6 11
The probability of drawing a red ball from urn B is
6 3
𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐵 ) = =
6+4 5
The probability of drawing a red ball from urn C is
3 3
𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐶 ) = =
3+5 8
We are required to find 𝑃(𝑅).
By Law of total probability we have
𝑃(𝑅) = 𝑃(𝐸𝐴 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐴 ) + 𝑃(𝐸𝐵 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐵 ) + 𝑃(𝐸𝐶 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐶 )
1 5 1 3 1 3 200 + 264 + 165 629
𝑃(𝑅) = ( ) + ( ) + ( ) = = ≈ 0.4765
3 11 3 5 3 8 1320 1320

Le t 𝑊 be the event that ball drawn is white.


If we are required to find 𝑃(𝑊), then
6 6
𝑃(𝑊|𝐸𝐴 ) = =
5 + 6 11
4 2
𝑃(𝑊|𝐸𝐵 ) = =
6+4 5
5 5
𝑃(𝑊|𝐸𝐶 ) = =
3+5 8
By Law of total probability we have
𝑃(𝑊) = 𝑃(𝐸𝐴 )𝑃(𝑊|𝐸𝐴 ) + 𝑃(𝐸𝐵 )𝑃(𝑊|𝐸𝐵 ) + 𝑃(𝐸𝐶 )𝑃(𝑊|𝐸𝐶 )
1 6 1 2 1 5 240 + 176 + 275 691
𝑃(𝑊) = ( ) + ( ) + ( ) = = ≈ 0.5235
3 11 3 5 3 8 1320 1320
Check
629 691
𝑃(𝑅) + 𝑃(𝑊) = + =1
1320 1320

Question

(B) What is probability that ball is from urn A given that ball is red?

Solution

Let 𝐸𝐴 , 𝐸𝐵 , 𝐸𝐶 and 𝑅 be the events defined as follows:


𝐸𝐴 = urn A is chosen, 𝐸𝐵 = urn B is chosen, 𝐸𝐶 = urn C is chosen, and
𝑅 = ball drawn is red.
Since there are three urns of the same appearance and one of three urns is chosen at
random, therefore
1
𝑃(𝐸𝐴 ) = 𝑃(𝐸𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐸𝐶 ) =
3
The probability of drawing a red ball from urn A is
5 5
𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐴 ) = =
5 + 6 11
The probability of drawing a red ball from urn B is
6 3
𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐵 ) = =
6+4 5
The probability of drawing a red ball from urn C is
3 3
𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐶 ) = =
3+5 8
We are required to find 𝑃(𝐸𝐴 |𝑅).
By Bayes’ theorem we have
𝑃(𝐸𝐴 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐴 )
𝑃(𝐸𝐴 |𝑅) =
𝑃(𝐸𝐴 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐴 ) + 𝑃(𝐸𝐵 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐵 ) + 𝑃(𝐸𝐶 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐸𝐶 )
1 5
3 (11) 200 200
𝑃(𝐸𝐴 |𝑅) = = = ≈ 0.3180
1 5 1 3 1 3 200 + 264 + 165 629
+ +
3 (11) 3 (5) 3 (8)
The probability that ball is from urn A given that ball is red
200
𝑃(𝐸𝐴 |𝑅) = ≈ 0.3180
629

Answer provided by https://www.AssignmentExpert.com

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