PROBABILITY

Semester 06
Suppose that a bag contains 4 red balls and 1 blue ball, and you draw a ball
without looking into the bag. What are the outcomes? Are the outcomes — a
red ball and a blue ball equally likely? Since there are 4 red balls and only one
blue ball, you would agree that you are more likely to get a red ball than a blue
ball. So, the outcomes (a red ball or a blue ball) are not equally likely. However,
the outcome of drawing a ball of any colour from the bag is equally likely. So, all
experiments do not necessarily have equally likely outcomes.

we defined the experimental or empirical probability P(E) of an

event E as

P(E) = Number of trials in which the event happened / Total number of trials

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The theoretical probability (also called classical probability) of an event E,
written as P(E), is defined as

P(E) =
Number of outcomes favourable to E /Number of all possible outcomes of the
experiment
,
where we assume that the outcomes of the experiment are equally likely.
We will briefly refer to theoretical probability as probability.

This definition of probability was given by Pierre Simon Laplace in 1795.

Example 1 : Find the probability of getting a head when a coin is
tossed once. Also
find the probability of getting a tail.
Solution : In the experiment of tossing a coin once, the number of
possible outcomes
is two — Head (H) and Tail (T). Let E be the event ‘getting a head’.
The number of
outcomes favourable to E, (i.e., of getting a head) is 1. Therefore,
P(E) = P (head) =

Number of outcomes favourable to E

Number of all possible outcomes = ½
Similarly, if F is the event ‘getting a tail’, then
P(F) = P(tail) = ½

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`Example 2 : A bag contains a red ball, a blue ball and a yellow ball, all the balls being
of the same size. Kritika takes out a ball from the bag without looking into it. What is
the probability that she takes out the
(i) yellow ball? (ii) red ball? (iii) blue ball?
Solution : Kritika takes out a ball from the bag without looking into it. So, it is equally
likely that she takes out any one of them.
Let Y be the event ‘the ball taken out is yellow’, B be the event ‘the ball taken
out is blue’, and R be the event ‘the ball taken out is red’.
Now, the number of possible outcomes = 3.
(i) The number of outcomes favourable to the event Y = 1.
So, P(Y) = 1/3
Similarly, (ii) P(R) = 1/3
and (iii) P(B) = 1/3

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An event having only one outcome of the experiment is called an
elementary
event. In Example 1, both the events E and F are elementary events.
Similarly, in
Example 2, all the three events, Y, B and R are elementary events.
2. In Example 1, we note that : P(E) + P(F) = 1
In Example 2, we note that : P(Y) + P(R) + P(B) = 1
Observe that the sum of the probabilities of all the elementary
events of
an experiment is 1. This is true in general also.

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Example 3 : Suppose we throw a die once. (i) What is the probability of getting a
number greater than 4 ? (ii) What is the probability of getting a number less than or
equal to 4 ?
Solution : (i) Here, let E be the event ‘getting a number greater than 4’. The number
of possible outcomes is six : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, and the outcomes favourable to E are
5
and 6. Therefore, the number of outcomes favourable to E is 2. So,
P(E) = P(number greater than 4) = 2/6 = 1/3
(ii) Let F be the event ‘getting a number less than or equal to 4’.
Number of possible outcomes = 6
Outcomes favourable to the event F are 1, 2, 3, 4.
So, the number of outcomes favourable to F is 4.
Therefore, P(F) = 4/6 = 2/3

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Remarks : From Example 1, we note that
P(E) + P(F) =
½ + ½  (1)
where E is the event ‘getting a head’ and F is the event ‘getting a tail’.
From (i) and (ii) of Example 3, we also get
P(E) + P(F) = 1/3 + 2/3  (2)
where E is the event ‘getting a number >4’ and F is the event ‘getting a
number  4’.
Note that getting a number not greater than 4 is same as getting a number less
than or equal to 4, and vice versa.
In (1) and (2) above, is F not the same as ‘not E’? Yes, it is. We denote the event
‘not E’ by E .
So, P(E) + P(not E) = 1
i.e., P(E) + P( E ) = 1, which gives us P( E ) = 1 – P(E).
In general, it is true that for an event E,
P( E ) = 1 – P(E)
The event E , representing ‘not E’, is called the complement of the event E.
We also say that E and E are complementary events.

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Before proceeding further, let us try to find the answers to the following
questions:
(i) What is the probability of getting a number 8 in a single throw of a die?
(ii) What is the probability of getting a number less than 7 in a single throw of
a die?
Let us answer (i) :
We know that there are only six possible outcomes in a single throw of a die.
These
outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Since no face of the die is marked 8, so
there is no
outcome favourable to 8, i.e., the number of such outcomes is zero. In other
words,
getting 8 in a single throw of a die, is impossible.
So, P(getting 8) = 0 / 6 = 0
That is, the probability of an event which is impossible to occur is 0. Such an
event is called an impossible event.

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Let us answer (ii) :
Since every face of a die is marked with a number less than 7, it is sure that we
will always get a number less than 7 when it is thrown once. So, the number of
favourable outcomes is the same as the number of all possible outcomes, which is 6.
Therefore, P(E) = P(getting a number less than 7) = 6/6 = 1
So, the probability of an event which is sure (or certain) to occur is 1. Such an event
is called a sure event or a certain event.
Note : From the definition of the probability P(E), we see that the numerator (number
of outcomes favourable to the event E) is always less than or equal to the denominator
(the number of all possible outcomes). Therefore,
0 <= P(E) <= 1
Now, let us take an example related to playing cards. Have you seen a deck of
playing cards? It consists of 52 cards which are divided into 4 suits of 13 cards each—
spades (), hearts (), diamonds () and clubs (). Clubs and spades are of black
colour, while hearts and diamonds are of red colour. The cards in each suit are ace,
king, queen, jack, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2. Kings, queens and jacks are called face
cards.
Example 4 : One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Calculate the
probability that the card will
(i) be an ace,
(ii) not be an ace.
Solution : Well-shuffling ensures equally likely outcomes.
(i) There are 4 aces in a deck. Let E be the event ‘the card is an ace’.
The number of outcomes favourable to E = 4
The number of possible outcomes = 52 (Why ?)
Therefore, P(E) = 4 /52 = 1/13

(ii) Let F be the event ‘card drawn is not an ace’.

The number of outcomes favourable to the event F = 52 – 4 = 48
The number of possible outcomes = 52
Therefore, P(F) = 48/52 = 12/13

Remark : Note that F is nothing but E . Therefore, we can also calculate P(F) as
follows: P(F) = P( E ) = 1 – P(E) =
1- 1/13 = 12/13

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Example 5 : Two players, Sangeeta and Reshma, play a tennis match. It is known
that the probability of Sangeeta winning the match is 0.62. What is the probability of
Reshma winning the match?
Solution : Let S and R denote the events that Sangeeta wins the match and Reshma
wins the match, respectively.
The probability of Sangeeta’s winning = P(S) = 0.62 (given)
The probability of Reshma’s winning = P(R) = 1 – P(S)
[As the events R and S are complementary]
= 1 – 0.62 = 0.38

Example 6 : Savita and Hamida are friends. What is the probability that both will
have (i) different birthdays? (ii) the same birthday? (ignoring a leap year).
Solution : Out of the two friends, one girl, say, Savita’s birthday can be any day of the
year. Now, Hamida’s birthday can also be any day of 365 days in the year.
We assume that these 365 outcomes are equally likely.
(i) If Hamida’s birthday is different from Savita’s, the number of favourable outcomes
for her birthday is 365 – 1 = 364
So, P (Hamida’s birthday is different from Savita’s birthday) = 364 / 365
(ii) P(Savita and Hamida have the same birthday)
= 1 – P (both have different birthdays)
=1-- 1/365 = 364/365

[Using P( E ) = 1 – P(E)]
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Example :- A carton consists of 100 shirts of which 88 are good, 8 have
minor
defects and 4 have major defects. Jimmy, a trader, will only accept the
shirts which
are good, but Sujatha, another trader, will only reject the shirts which have
major
defects. One shirt is drawn at random from the carton. What is the
probability that
(i) it is acceptable to Jimmy?
(ii) it is acceptable to Sujatha?
Solution : One shirt is drawn at random from the carton of 100 shirts.
Therefore,
there are 100 equally likely outcomes.
(i) The number of outcomes favourable (i.e., acceptable) to Jimmy = 88
(ii) Therefore, P (shirt is acceptable to Jimmy) = 88/100 =0.88

(ii) The number of outcomes favourable to Sujatha = 88 + 8 = 96

So, P (shirt is acceptable to Sujatha) = 96/100 = 0.96

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Example on dice :- Two dice, one blue and one grey, are thrown at the same time.
Write
down all the possible outcomes. What is the probability that the sum of the two numbers
appearing on the top of the dice is
(i) 8? (ii) 13? (iii) less than or equal to 12?

Solution : When the blue die shows ‘1’, the grey die could show any one of the
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The same is true when the blue die shows ‘2’, ‘3’, ‘4’, ‘5’ or
‘6’. The possible outcomes of the experiment are listed in the table below; the first
number in each ordered pair is the number appearing on the blue die and the second
number is that on the grey die.

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Note that the pair (1, 4) is different from (4, 1).
So, the number of possible outcomes = 6 × 6 = 36.
(i) The outcomes favourable to the event ‘the sum of the two numbers is 8’ denoted
by E, are: (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)
i.e., the number of outcomes favourable to E = 5.
Hence, P(E) = 5/36
(ii) As you can see from Fig. 14.3, there is no outcome favourable to the event F,
‘the sum of two numbers is 13’.
So, P(F) = 0/36  0
(iii) As you can see from Fig. 14.3, all the outcomes are favourable to the event G,
‘sum of two numbers <= 12’.
So, P(G) = 36 / 36 =1

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In this chapter, you have studied the following points :
1. The theoretical (classical) probability of an event E, written as P(E), is defined as
P (E) = Number of outcomes favourable to E /
Number of all possible outcomes of the experiment
where we assume that the outcomes of the experiment are equally likely.

2. The probability of a sure event (or certain event) is 1.

3. The probability of an impossible event is 0.

4. The probability of an event E is a number P(E) such that

0 <= P (E) <= 1

5. An event having only one outcome is called an elementary event. The sum of the
probabilities of all the elementary events of an experiment is 1.

6. For any event E, P (E) + P ( E ) = 1, where E stands for ‘not E’. E and E are called
complementary events.

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Thank you

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