ENGG5092 ASSESSMENT 1 – RESEARCH PROPOSAL 

Hydrological Assessment of Climate Change Impact on

Water Systems in Adelaide 

Lailoma Shahdoost 110334064 

Vimala Priya Thentu  110351898
Ziwei Zhu  110357817

Supervisor:  Dr. Subhashini Wella Hewage  

Submission Date: 26 August 2022 

 
 

Author Statement: 

 
I declare that the work contained in this assignment is my own, except where acknowledgement of
sources is made.  

I authorise the University to test any work submitted by me, using comparison software, for
instances of plagiarism. I understand this will involve the University or its contractor copying my work
and storing it on a database to be used in future to test work submitted by others.  

I understand that I can obtain further information on this matter at

https://lo.unisa.edu.au/mod/book/view.php?id=252142 

Lailoma Shahdoost (110334064)

Vimala Priya Thentu  (110351898)

Ziwei Zhu (110357817)

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Contents
List of Figures.....................................................................................................................iii

List of Tables.......................................................................................................................iv

1 Introduction......................................................................................................................5

2 Literature Review..............................................................................................................6
2.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................6
2.1.1 Climate Change Impacts...................................................................................6
2.1.2 Effects of Climate Change on Rainfall...............................................................6
2.2 Modelling and Analysis.................................................................................................7
2.2.1 Hydrological model..........................................................................................8
2.2.2 Climate Change Model.....................................................................................8
2.3 Finding and Limitations................................................................................................9
2.4 Summary......................................................................................................................9
2.5 Knowledge Gap and Research......................................................................................9

3 Aims and Objectives........................................................................................................10

3.1 Aim.............................................................................................................................10
3.2 Objectives...................................................................................................................10
3.3 Significance of the study.............................................................................................10

4 Methodology...................................................................................................................11
4.1 Outline of Research Methodology..............................................................................12
4.2 Introduction................................................................................................................13
4.3 Data Collection Method.............................................................................................13
4.4 Data Analysis..............................................................................................................14
4.5 Study Area..................................................................................................................15

5 References......................................................................................................................17

List of Figures
Figure 1: Outline of Research Methodology...........................................................................................8
Figure 2: Data Collection and Analysis Flow Chart................................................................................10
Figure 3: Myponga rivers Flow Gauging Stations within the Adelaide region (BOM 2017)..................11
Figure 5: Myponga Reservoir (Paton, Maier and Dandy, 2013)............................................................11

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1 Introduction
Australia is among the driest countries in the world. South Australia has the driest land compared to
other states in Australia. The main sources of water are from rivers, reservoirs and groundwater.
With change in the climate, these sources of water are susceptible to global warming. The average
rainfall has reduced since 1900 ( (BOM 2021). According to Bureau of Meteorology(BOM), the
national’s mean temperature has been increased by 0.56oC and 2021 was one of the warmest year
on the record (BOM 2021). This means Australia, particularly South Australia, may face decrease in
rainfall due to increase in temperatures which would lead to more droughts. South Australia has
experienced episodes of droughts in the past. However, knowing when or how frequently the state
would experience droughts in the future is crutial for the water authorities. This knowledge will
prepare them to have a better water management in place. Likewise, climate change forecasts are
vital for understanding how the hydrological cycle will change in the future.

Reservoirs are vital sources of water in South Australia particularly in Adelaide region. With extreme
heatwave and reduced rainfall, the reservoirs will experience extra evaporation. Therefore, there
will be reduction in water storage in the reservoirs. To study the impact of the future climate change
on reservoir, this research project will evaluate the effects of climate change on the streamflow in
the Myponga watershed, a case study catchment. The goals of this study are to determine the effects
of climate change on the streamflow of the Myponga reservoir and how much the streamflow may
reduce in the future.

To achieve this research goal, a hydrological model, EPA SWMM, has been chosen. Daily rainfall and
streamflow data and long-term monthly mean evaporation from Myponga station from, 1980 – 2020,
will be collected. After evaluating, a climate change model will be callibrated into the system to
simulate the future water storage.

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2 Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

South Australia’s main water sources are from reservoirs, rivers, groundwater and seawater. South
Australia have faced many droughts period and an increased in heatwaves due to climate change
(Climate Commission 2012). Climate change projection predicts that South Australia may experience
increase in temperatures and reduced rainfall (Green et al. 2012). The aim of this literature review is
to study the literatures on the impact of climate change on hydrological system such as reservoirs
and streamflow/runoff in South Australia. A hydrological model and climate model will be discussed.
Through these models, the future of streamflow in the Myponga reservoir will be predicted.

2.1.1 Climate Change Impacts

Climate change has been observed in Australia in line with global warming. According to
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change has changed the ecosystems of
the earth (IPCC 2022). These effects have been over the millennia. The world is experiencing these
changes on hydrological systems such as shifting seasonal timing or reduced or increased rainfall
pattern. Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including droughts, terrestrial and
marine heatwaves, wildfires, cyclones, and flood will be increased (IPCC 2022). Increase in heatwaves
means an increased in evaporation which causes loss of water from surface area such as reservoirs or
catchments (King et al. 2020). In Australia, the surface temperature has risen by around 0.9°C
from its value in 1910 (CSIRO & BOM 2015). However, rise in temperature have increased
significantly since the past few decades (Cleugh et al. 2011). Some regions in Australia have
experienced temperature rise of 2°C (CSIRO & BOM 2015).

2.1.2 Effects of Climate Change on Rainfall

Majority of rainfall in South Australia particularly in Adelaide region falls from May–September (BOM
2022). With climate change these rainfall patterns are not reliable. During summer season
(December–February) there will be extreme rainfall events. For rainfall, the correlation of observed
changes with global warming are difficult to explain because rainfall in Australia shows range of
variability owing to several natural drivers (BOM 2022). However, overall increase in rainfall has been

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observed since 1970s and yet, South Australia is experiencing decrease in this period (King et al.
2020).

CSIRO & BoM (BOM 2022) have predicted temperature rise by 2070. The temperature is projected
to rise in a range of 1.4 oC to 2.7oC for intermediate emission scenarios and in range of 2.8 to 5.1 °C
high emission scenarios from base value from 1986 to 2005 (CSIRO & BoM 2015). While there will be
fluctuations due to the uncertainties, the rainfall pattern is expected to decline in the Southern, and
Southern and Easter region of Australia in winter and spring, respectively (Green et all. 2012).
According to BOM (2022), dry conditions were experienced across most of South Australia in the year
2020 and 2021 respectively.

2.2 Modelling and Analysis

Hydrological models are conceptual representation of hydrological process. Hydrological models can
classify in varieties of ways on different basis such as physical or mathematical, stochastic or
deterministic, short term or long term, continuous or discrete, small scale or large scale, predicating
or forecasting, descriptive or conceptual, and lumped or distributed (Green, Gibbs, Alcoe and Wood
2012). Most of the hydrological models are developed for simulation of rainfall-runoff process for
current climate (Head et al. 2014). However, they can be adapted and used in climate impact studies
if climate change scenarios are used as input (Head et al, 2014). Several hydrological impact models
have so far been adapted and used in climate impact assessment on water resources. If the
hydrological models are well calibrated and validated on observed current data set, they can be used
for climate impact assessment with reasonable accuracy (DEW 2021). In fact, the uncertainties in
climate impact assessments are largely due to climate models (GCMs), not due to hydrological
models (Vaze and Teng 2011).

Some of the most commonly used hydrological models in Australia are models that are lumped
empirical or conceptual models (Vaze and Teng 2011). Even though distributed physically-based
models are generally considered better than empirical and conceptual models, they need more
parametrization and large input data ((Vaze and Teng 2011). However, both types of models have
different effective roles in climate impact studies (Waterconnects 2021). Conceptual models can be
robust to identify climate impact with range of scenarios and are reasonably accurate for small
catchments while distributed models are more efficient to evaluate combined impacts of climate
change and land uses (Waterconnects 2021).

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2.2.1 Hydrological model

A hydrological model is a method and instrument for simulating the water flow process in the
Myponga reservoir. The following rainfall-runoff model is used in this research project.

EPA SWMM

SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) is a rainfall-runoff model developed by the US

Environmental Protection Agency in the 1970s for the design and management of urban stormwater.
Factors such as runoff and pipe network confluence have been widely used around the world. In the
latest version 5.0, it consists of three parts: hydrology, hydrodynamics and water quality, which can
completely simulate rainfall runoff. The SWMM model divides the study area into several sub-
watersheds and calculates the runoff process by the constant flow method, the kinematic wave
method and the dynamic wave method respectively.

This study will collect the continuous rainfall data of Myponga Catchment for years under climate
change, use the EPA SWMM model to simulate the runoff of Myponga Catchment, and analyse the
change of runoff under the future climate change, and predict the impact of climate change on the
hydrology of Adelaide area.

2.2.2 Climate Change Model

CSIRO-MK3.0 climate model will be used to scenario the future climate change in this research.
CSIRO-MK3.0 was developed by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
(CSRIO) which belongs to Australia as a comprehensive global climate coupled model. CSIRO-MK3.0
can model and predict future climate change without artificial corrections (Phipps et al., 2011). The
daily rainfall data and monthly evaporation data of Myponga rainfall gauge catchment 023738 from
1980 to 2020 will be used as input data, and scenario of 40 years daily rainfall data as future climate,
which will be used as input data for EPA SWMM.

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2.3 Finding and Limitations

Climate change is happening and has its impact on the hydrological system not only in Adelaide
region but around the world. There are many hydrological models to assess the hydrological changes
and with the help of the right climate model, the future changes can be predicted.

However, there are many literatures focusing on the runoff and how the climate change will have
impact on water storage in the future. Climate change variabilities cannot be studied as one
variable. This literature research shares these inherent limitations in similar studies. There are
uncertainties associated with climate projections (King et al. 2020). The climate models and emission
scenarios, and downscaling techniques have some levels of unavoidable uncertainties and
inaccuracies (King et al. 2020). Additionally, climate projection data are available for limited number
of weather stations in Adelaide region specifically around the catchments. Hydrological modelling
has its own limitation and cannot be exact representations of realities and their accuracies are
limited as well. Also, limitation linked to the assumption that climate change impact on land cover is
negligible and possible land cover change due to climate changes are normally ignored in climate
impact studies, whereas such changes might have some effects on runoff.

2.4 Summary

In summary, climate change is inevitable. Hydrological studies with climate change impact have
been utilised by many government and research institutions. These studies have concluded that
climate change will have significant impacts on hydrological systems in South Australia.

2.5 Knowledge Gap and Research

There are many research papers on the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems in
Australia and almost all of them have concluded that under the impact of climate change, the trends
of streamflow will decrease, which lead to drought conditions in Australia. However, there are not
many literatures to predict the future of streamflow in the Myponga reservoir. Myponga is one of
the most important water storages in Adelaide region. Understanding the future conditions of the
reservoir is crucial for the water management authorities. Therefore, the knowledge questions for
this literature review are:
 Will climate change lead to future reduction in water storage in Myponga reservoir?

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  How the hydrology of the catchment changes in the future?

3 Aims and Objectives

3.1 Aim

The aim of this study is to assess how streamflow on Myponga catchment changes as trends of
rainfall and evaporation are affected by climate change. Predict the occurrence of droughts or floods
by studying changes in streamflow.

3.2 Objectives

 Knowledge gap and research questions are identified from literature review.
 Collect daily observation of rainfall and evaporation data of case study catchment, Myponga
gauge catchment.
 find the right climate change model. And through this climate change model create
scenario/s to find the impacted rainfall and evaporation.
 Output the streamflow under climate change through the hydrology model (EPA SWMM).
 Assessing the impact of climate change on runoff of Myponga catchment.

3.3 Significance of the study

Water has a vital role in any society. All living beings need water. However, climate change is
happening and it will have impact on hydrological cycles. Long-term heatwave will aggravate the
hydrological cycle process. There will be an increase in evaporation and decrease in rainfall which will
affect the runoff. Understanding future impact of climate change on the runoff in the Myponga
reservoir will help the water policy makers, planners, water management authorities and the general
public to be prepare for any extreme events such as droughts. The water policy makers can use this
information when making decisions regarding water distribution. This study can also contribute in
understanding the future climate impacts on the Myponga region.

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4 Methodology

This research will use quantitative methodology to collect and analyze data. Quantitative
methodology is based on statistical data, using mathematical models, and analyzing various
indicators of research objects according to mathematical models (Given, 2008).

After determining the research objectives, rainfall, and evaporation data of the Myponga gauge
catchment need to be collected from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The gauge station is then
divided into sub catchments and an outlet point is selected.

The model is then to be calibrated into the EPA SWMM model. Sub catchments for the model are
given. The conduit junctions are then connected to sub catchments using the storm water conduits.
Then the output is given at the end.

A new project is created on the EPA SWMM. The defaults necessary are then set up. From Project>>
Defaults. The rain gauge, sub-catchments, junctions, and conduits are named respectively. The in the
Sub catchment and Nodes boxes, the defaults are set as required. Then the display options are set as
required, assigning the dimensions. Then the object properties are set. The model is completed and
run once the necessary properties are set. The model is run. The status report is to be collected.
When the model is closed the reports are saved at output data. The time plot and other graphs are
then obtained.

Input rainfall and evaporation data into EPA SWMM as original data for modelling. Runoff and runoff
as EPA SWMM outcomes, which are important predictors of future water system changes, after
getting runoff and streamflow is obtained for the first time, calibrating and validating EPA SWMM
with the observed runoff data. Input the original data into EPA SWMM to model again to get runoff
and streamflow data.

Then use the CSIRO-MK3.0 climate model to simulate the original rainfall and evaporation data to
obtain the rainfall and evaporation data under climate change. Input the EPA SWMM model after
calibrating and validating and obtaining the runoff and streamflow data under climate change.

These two groups of runoff and streamflow data are drawn flow-duration curves to compare and.

In this research, the original rainfall and evaporation data are objective numbers, and the data is
simulated by CSIRO-MK3.0 climate model and EPA SWMM model, and the output data is obtained in
the form of numbers, which is an effective data collection and analysis method in statistics,
concluding scientifically.

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4.1 Outline of Research Methodology

This research will be divided into four main sections as outlined in the following flow chart.

Figure 1: Outline of Research Methodology

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4.2 Introduction

Quantitative methodology is used for this research project. Datas are used throughout the research
analysis. These datas are used to predict the impact of future climate change on Adelaide's water
system and prepare in advance for potential droughts or flood events. 40 years of rainfall and
evaporation data from Myponga catchment will be collected from the BoM website as sample 1.
Then, using the CSIRO-MK3.0 climate scenario to model sample 1 to obtain the rainfall and
evaporation data under climate change as sample 2. Then, input these two sets of data into EPA
SWMM separately and get output of two sets of runoff data. Plot the two sets of runoff data into
flow-duration curves (Searcy 1959) to observe the change of streamflow under the climate change.
Any changes in the future runoff will be analysed to predict the streamflow of the catchment.

4.3 Data Collection Method

In quantitative research, numerous data needs to be collected. For this research, rainfall data,
evaporation data, and runoff data with and without climate change model needed to be collected.

 Rainfall Daily Data from 1964 to 2020 of rain gauge catchment 023738 is collected from BoM.
 Evaporation Monthly Average Data of rain gauge catchment 023738 is collected from BoM.
 Streamflow Daily Data from 1980 to 2020 of gauge catchment A5020502 from is collected
from SA Water.

Firstly, collect daily rainfall and evaporation data of Myponga Catchment gauge station (A5020502) in
20 years through BoM website. The collected data will be opened in the EPA SWMM. The required
parameters are then set on the software. The defaults are then mentioned, such as rain gauges and
sub catchments are filled, by selecting the defaults section under the projects tab. The software runs
the data after selecting it from the options. The status reports are then obtained on the current
stream flow and flow rate. The output runoff data is used to calibrate and validate EPA SWMM, and
the EPA SWMM model that is most suitable for studying Myponga gauge catchment is obtained.
Input the original rainfall and evaporation data into EPA SWMM again to get runoff data which is
defined as without climate change.

Then input the rainfall and evaporation data collected by BoM into the CSIRO-MK3.0 climate scenario
to get the rainfall and evaporation data affected by climate change. Input rainfall and evaporation
data affected by climate change into validated EPA SWMM model output runoff data which is under
climate change.

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4.4 Data Analysis

In quantitative research, data analysis is the most important after data collection. In this research,
the runoff data will be analyzed by plotting two flow-duration curves. One using runoff data
unaffected by climate change and one using runoff data affected by climate change. By comparing
the two curves, the impact of climate change on the streamflow can be observed intuitionally, so
that we can make predictions about the future hydrology of Adelaide.

Figure 2: Data Collection and Analysis Flow Chart

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4.5 Study Area

The study area is Myponga Reservoir (Figure 3). Myponga reservoir is situated in the Adelaide
Southern region. Myponga Reservoir is independent of the other reservoirs in the region. Figure 3
shows the boundary line of the Myponga catchment. The streamflow data is collected from Myponga
upstream river catchment A5020502 (figure 4).

Figure 3: Myponga rivers Flow Gauging Stations within the Adelaide region (BOM 2017)

Figure 4: Myponga Reservoir (Paton, Maier and Dandy, 2013)

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5 References
Alcoe, D, Gibbs, M, and Green, G., 2012, Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Phase 3
Volume 3: Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report
2012/05, Government of South Australia, Department for Water, Adelaide.

Arnold, J., Moriasi, D., Gassman, P., Abbaspour, K., White, M., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R.,
Griensven, A., Van Liew, M., Kannan, N. and Jha, M., 2012, ‘SWAT: Model Use, Calibration, and
Validation. Transactions of the ASABE’, 55(4), pp.1491-1508.

ARR 2022, Australian Rainfall & Runoff Data Hub – Results, viewed on 16/08/2022, <http://data.arr-
software.org/>.

Babel, MS, Agarwal, A and Shinde, VR 2014, ‘Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and
Selected Water Use Sectors’, in S Shrestha, MS Babel, VP Pandey (eds) Climate Change and Water
Resources, CRC press : Taylor and Francis group, Boca Raton, Florida ,USA.

Cleugh, H., Smith, M.S., Battaglia, M. and Graham, P., 2006, Climate change: science and solutions for
Australia. CSIRO.

Coleman, R.A., Chee, Y.E., Bond, N.R., Weeks, A., Griffiths, J., Serena, M., Williams, G.A. and Walsh,
C.J., 2022, Understanding and managing the interactive impacts of growth in urban land use and
climate change on freshwater biota: A case study using the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus).
Global change biology, 28(4), pp.1287-1300.

CSIRO & BOM 2015, Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource
Management Regions: Technical Report, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia.

DEW, 2021, Construction and calibration of hydrological models for six water supply catchments
across the Western Mount Lofty Ranges, DEW Technical Report 2021/21, Government of South
Australia, Department for Environment and Water, Adelaide.

Given, L., 2008. The Sage encyclopedia of qualitative research methods. Los Angeles, Calif.: Sage
Publications, p.516.

Grafton, R.Q. and Wittwer, G., 2022, Temperature–Rainfall Anomalies and Climate Change: Possible
Effects on Australian Agriculture in 2030 and 2050. In Water Security Under Climate Change (pp. 351-
374). Springer, Singapore.

Grafton, R.Q., Pittock, J., Davis, R., Williams, J., Fu, G., Warburton, M., Udall, B., McKenzie, R., Yu, X.,
Che, N. and Connell, D., 2013, Global insights into water resources, climate change and governance.
Nature Climate Change, 3(4), pp.315-321.

Green, G., Gibbs, M., Alcoe, D., and Wood, C., 2012, Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources,
Phase 3 Volume 2: Eyre Peninsula Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report
2012/04, Government of South Australia, through Department for Water, Adelaide.

Head, L., Adams, M., McGregor, H.V. and Toole, S., 2014, Climate change and Australia. Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 5(2), pp.175-197.

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IPCC 2022, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, viewed on 06/05/2022, <
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_TechnicalSumm
ary.pdf>.

King, A.D., Pitman, A.J., Henley, B.J., Ukkola, A.M. and Brown, J.R., 2020, The role of climate
variability in Australian drought. Nature Climate Change, 10(3), pp.177-179.

Paton, F, Dandy, G & Maier, H 2014, Integrated framework for assessing urban water supply security
of systems with non-traditional sources under climate change, Environmental Modelling & Software:
with Environment Data News., vol. 60, pp. 302–319.

Paton, F., Maier, H. and Dandy, G., 2013. Relative magnitudes of sources of uncertainty in assessing
climate change impacts on water supply security for the southern Adelaide water supply system.  Water
Resources Research, 49(3), p.1646.

Paton, F.L., Maier, H.R. and Dandy, G.C., 2013, Relative magnitudes of sources of uncertainty in
assessing climate change impacts on water supply security for the southern Adelaide water supply
system. Water Resources Research, 49(3), pp.1643-1667.

Searcy, J., 1959. Flow-duration curves, manual of hydrology: part 2, low-flow techniques. 2nd ed.
Washington, D.C.: United States Geological Survey, p.17.

Tian, J., Pan, Z., Guo, S. and Wang, J., 2022, Response of catchment water storage capacity to the
prolonged meteorological drought and asymptotic climate variation, Hydrology and Earth System
Sciences Discussions, pp.1-53.

Vaze, J. and Teng, J., 2011, Future climate and runoff projections across New South Wales, Australia:
results and practical applications. Hydrological Processes, 25(1), pp.18-35.

Waterconnects, 2021, Construction and calibration of hydrological models for six water supply
catchments across the Western Mount Lofty Ranges, Department for Environment and Water
December, 2021, pp. 170- 190.

Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J. and Nguyen, V.T.V., 2012, Climate change impact
assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings, Atmospheric
research, 103, pp.106-118.

Phipps, S., Rotstayn, L., Gordon, H., Roberts, J., Hirst, A. and Budd, W., 2011. The CSIRO Mk3L climate
system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation. Geoscientific Model Development, 4(2),
pp.483-509.

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