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Analysis of Climate Change Trend in the Lower Kaski District of Nepal

Article · December 2020

DOI: 10.3126/hijase.v1i1.33536

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ISSN 2738‐9898 (Print) ISSN 2738‐9901 (Online)                                                                                                                        

Analysis of Climate Change Trend in the

Lower Kaski District of Nepal
Keshav Basnet1, Anup Shrestha2, Prakash Chandra Joshi1, and Nisha Pokharel1
1
Department of Civil and Geomatics Engineering, Pashchimanchal Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University,
Pokhara, Nepal
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Pokhara Engineering College, Pokhara University, Pokhara, Nepal

Corresponding E-mail: basnet.keshav@gmail.com

Received on: 18th April., 2020

Accepted for publication: 27th Oct., 2020

Abstract
Climate change is considered as the most critical global challenge of the century. Unusual precipitation
pattern and outflanking of hydraulic structures frequently reported these days in the Kaski district of
Nepal. This research aimed to analyze the trend of climate change in the lower Kaski using annual
and seasonal weather data (2001-2017) of five meteorological stations out of which three on the upper
tropical region, one on the sub-tropical region and the other one on the temperate region. Individual
trend analysis was performed for rainfall and temperature patterns using Mann-Kendell test. Trend
analysis for seasonal average precipitation shows an increasing trend for winter and pre-monsoon
seasons and a decreasing trend for monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. In contrast, overall annual
precipitation shows a decreasing trend. An increasing trend was found for maximum seasonal
temperature for all seasons except pre-monsoon season. The seasonal minimum temperature shows a
growing trend and overall annual trends for both the maximum and minimum temperatures were also
increasing. All of these trends are the evidence of climatic changes that are happening over time.
Additionally, a comparative study was conducted between a meteorological station and a locally
established manual station. The differences in the numeric values of cumulative rainfall with
comparable precipitation readings suggest the need to take into account local station data for design,
construction, and planning of hydraulic structures.

Keywords: Global warming, Local rain gauge station, Mann Kendall test, Rainfall trend, Temperature
trend.

1. Introduction: the variability of its properties that persists for an

extended period of time, typically decades or
Climate is the statistics of weather over long
longer [1]. Climate change is one of the most
periods of time [1]. It is measured by assessing the
critical global challenges of the century. The
patterns of variations in the temperature,
warming trend in Nepal after 1997 has ranged
humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind,
from 0.06 to 0.12 °C per year in most of the
precipitation, atmospheric particle counts and
middle mountains and Himalayan regions [2].
other meteorological variables in a given region
over long periods. Climate Change typically is The linear warming throughout 1880-2012 has
defined as the change in the state of the climate been 0.85 °C with 1983-2012, likely the warmest
that can be identified by changes in the mean or 30 years period of the last 1400 years in the

                                                                                                                                                                           11 
 Himalayan Journal of Applied Science and Engineering (HiJASE), Vol. 1, Issue 1, No. 11, 2020 
Northern Hemisphere [1]. The warming trend in required to explain the processes is also limited.
Nepal after 1997 has ranged from 0.06 °C to 0.12 With few Monitoring stations (just 280 across the
°C per year in most of the middle mountains and entire country), the hydro-meteorological data has
Himalayan regions; this trend has been less than been collected only since the late 1960s [5]. The
0.03 °C per year in the Siwalik and Terai regions observed climate trend analysis of Nepal is
[2]. Predictions are constantly being made to available from 1971 to 2014 [6]. However, there
understand what will happen based on observed is no study on climate change trend primarily
climate shifts over the past decades and projected focused on the Kaski district comparing the trend
greenhouse gas emissions. Changing precipitation of various climatic zones.
and temperature analysis trends are useful in
The study area of this research is based on the
engineering, environmental, forestry, and soil
Kaski district of Gandaki Province, Nepal (Fig. 1).
conservation studies. This trend analysis is
It is located at latitude 28°18′19.08″ North and
necessary for proper engineering designs of
longitude 84°04′37.20″ East. The altitude of the
hydrologic structures like dams, bridges,
Kaski district, with Pokhara as headquarter,
irrigation canals, sewerage, etc. Addisu et al. [3]
ranges from lower 450 masl to upper 8091 masl in
conducted a time series trend analysis of rainfall
the Himalaya range. It has a Metropolitan City, 4
and temperature in the Ethiopia's lake Tana Sub-
Rural Municipalities, and 3 Electoral Sectors.
basin. Similarly, Shrestha [4] studied the variation
Basnet and Acharya [7] reported that Kaski is the
of summer monsoon rainfall over Nepal and its
area of high intensity of rainfall throughout the
relation to the southern oscillation index.
year in Nepal, and about 80% of rainfall occurs
Nepal has amazingly diverse geological features typically in four months; June, July, August, and
and climatic conditions throughout the country. September. With a focus on our study area, the
The hydrology of Nepal is mainly fed by the South unusual precipitation patterns are frequently being
Asian Monsoon System (SAM). Still, the reported these days. Besides that, the overflow of
relationship between the timing, volume of the drain, outflanking of hydraulic structures such
monsoon rainfall, and the mountain landscape are as bridges, dams, river training works, etc. are also
poorly understood [5]. The altitude variation over observed recurrently. This incidence is not a mere
a short distance limits our ability to explain the coincidence, but the result of climatic changes
precipitation pattern in Nepal. The data set happening over the course of time.

Figure 1: Location of the study area [Source: DDC, Kaski]

This study's main objective is to analyze the Based on this study, out of the seven climatic
climate change trend in the Kaski district of zones of Kaski district (see Table 1), only three
Nepal. For that, the trend of rainfall and climatic zones are taken for historical trend
temperature in different climatic zones were analysis. The results are based on Sen's slope and
analyzed, and also the need for local rain gauge the established rain gauge is of manual type.
stations in construction activities was assessed.

K. Basnet et al.                                                                                                                                               12 
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This study's secondary objective is to compare the rainfall data relevant to the study area or proposed
rainfall data collected from a manually established site (e.g., while designing storm water drain, see
rain gauge device with the precipitation data of a [8]). For this purpose, a rain gauge was
DHM station. Researchers and hydraulic established manually to collect the local rainfall
engineers in Nepal facing the problem of lack of data [9].

Table 1: Geography of Kaski

Elevation range Area per % of the Number of
S. No. Climatic zone
(m) km2 area stations
1 Upper tropical 300 to 1,000 375.16 18.6 5
2 Sub-tropical 1,000 to 2,000 592.98 29.4 9
3 Temperate 2,000 to 3,000 334.82 16.6 1
4 Subalpine 3,000 to 4,000 244.05 12.1 0
5 Alpine 4,000 to 5,000 298.52 14.8 0
6 Nival above 5,000 1492.58 7.4 0
7 Trans-Himalayan 3,000 to 6,400 12.10 0.6 0

2. Methodology: only five; three on the upper tropical region, one

on the sub-tropical region and one on the
The research framework illustrated in Fig. 2
temperate region were selected for data analysis
shows the methodology for obtaining the first and
as mentioned in Table 2. Since the meteorological
second objectives of this study. This study was
data before 2001 was not available for all the
based on the literature review, analysis of primary
stations, data only from 2001 to 2017 was used in
and secondary data. During the desk study stage,
this study though it is not sufficient for trend
relevant documents and articles were identified,
analysis. Secondary data were collected from
collected, and studied to obtain preliminary
different sources such as related publications,
information about precipitation and temperature.
reports, literature, thesis, library, journals,
Then, meteorological data were collected from
magazines, internet etc. As mentioned in Table 2,
the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology;
the data from five different stations were studied
and Meteorological Forecasting Division, Kaski.
for climatic change trend analysis.
Out of fifteen meteorological stations of Kaski

 
Figure 2: Research framework; a) for trend analysis and b) for need assessment.

K. Basnet et al.                                                                                                                                                 13 
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Trend analysis is the widespread practice of trends in series of environmental data, climate
collecting information and identifying a pattern. data or hydrological data [12]. The null
The detection, estimation and prediction of trends hypothesis, H0, is that the data come from a
and associated statistical and physical population with independent realizations and are
significance are important aspects of climate identically distributed. In statistics, the Kendall
research [10, 11]. Given a time series of (say) rank correlation coefficient, commonly referred
temperatures, the trend is the rate at which to as Kendall's tau coefficient (after the Greek
temperature changes over a time period which letter τ), is a statistic used to measure the ordinal
may be linear or non-linear. Simple linear association between two measured quantities.
regression is most commonly used to estimate the Being a non-parametric test, no necessity of
linear trend (slope) and statistical significance. normally distributed data and having low
The non-parametric (i.e. distribution free) Mann- sensitivity to abrupt breaks due to
Kendall (M-K) test can also use to assess inhomogeneous time series, this statistical
monotonic trend (linear or non-linear) method is preferred for climatologic trend time
significance. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall series analysis.
test is commonly employed to detect monotonic

Table 2: Hydro-meteorological stations in the lower Kaski district. [Source: DHM, Nepal]
Latitude Longitude Elevation
S. No. Name of station Station type
(°N) (°E) (m)
1 Pokhara Airport Aeronautical 28.13 84.00 827
2 Malepatan Agrometeorology 28.07 84.07 856
3 Lumle Agrometeorology 28.18 83.48 1740
4 Begnas Climatology 28.11 84.08 669
5 Panchase Climatology 28.13 83.47 2493

The Mann-Kendall S Statistic is computed [13] as normally distributed with the mean and variance
follows: (σ2) as:
∑
𝑆 ∑ ∑ 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑇 𝑇 (1) 𝜎        
                 (3)

𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑇 𝑇 In equation (3), Ti denotes the number of ties to

extent i. If only the data series contains tied
0, 𝑖𝑓 𝑇 𝑇 0 values, the summation term in the numerator is
1, 𝑖𝑓 𝑇 𝑇 0                (2)  used.
1, 𝑖𝑓 𝑇 𝑇 0 The standard test statistic Zs is used a measure of
significance of trend, and is calculated as follows:  
where, j > i and Tj & Ti are the annual values in j
and i years, respectively. 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆 0
𝑍 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆 0                (4) 
In equation (1), if n < 10, |S| is compared to the 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆 0
theoretical distribution of S which is derived from
a two tailed Mann and Kendall test. If the absolute The null hypothesis, Ho is checked using this test
value of S equals or exceeds a specified value Sα/2, statistic. If | Zs | > Zα/2, where α is the chosen
where Sα/2 is the smallest S with probability < α significance level (e.g., 5 % with Z0.025 = 1.96)
/2, H0 is rejected in favor of H1 to appear in case then the null hypothesis is invalid which implies
of no trend. A positive value of S indicates an that the trend is significant [13]. Similarly, on
upward trend and vice-versa [14]. For n ≥ 10, S is running the Mann-Kendall test another statistic is
obtained; Kendall's tau. It is a measure of
correlation that measures the strength of the

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 Himalayan Journal of Applied Science and Engineering (HiJASE), Vol. 1, Issue 1, No. 11, 2020 
relationship between the two variables, and is Autocorrelation or serial correlation is defined as
carried out on the ranks of the data. For each the correlation of a variable with itself over
variable separately, the values are put in order and successive time intervals, prior to testing for
numbered, 1 for the lowest value, 2 for the next trends. It increases the chances of detecting
lowest and so on. Kendall's tau takes values of significant trends even if they are absent and vice
range [-1,1]. A positive correlation indicates that versa. Hence, it is essential to be considered in the
the ranks of both variables increase together and time series analysis. Autocorrelation between the
a negative correlation indicates that as the rank of ranks of the data can be calculated as suggested
one variable increases, the other decreases [15]. by Hamed and Rao (1998) after removing the
apparent trend [16]. The adjusted variance is
given as:
𝟏 𝑵
𝑽𝑨𝑹 𝑺 𝑵 𝑵 𝟏 𝟐𝑵 𝟓                    (5)
𝟏𝟖 𝑵𝑺∗

𝑵 𝟐
𝟏 ∑𝒑𝒊 𝟏 𝑵 𝒊 𝑵 𝑰 𝟏 𝑵 𝒊 𝟐 𝑷𝒔 𝒊 (6)
𝑵𝑺∗ 𝑵 𝑵 𝟏 𝑵 𝟐

In equation (5), N is the number of observations 3. Result and Discussion:

in the sample, NS* is the effective number of
3.1. Maximum and Minimum Precipitation:
observations to account for autocorrelation in the
data, Ps (i) is the autocorrelation between ranks of Precipitation analysis for three stations (Pokhara
the observations for lag i, and p is the maximum Airport, Malepatan and Lumle) of Kaski,
time lag under consideration [17]. performed from 2001 to 2008 is presented in
Table 3, which shows that the annual
Addinsoft’s XLSTAT 2018 was used for precipitation is maximum in Lumle station and
performing the statistical Mann-Kendall test. For minimum in Malepatan station. Similarly, the
both, temperature and precipitation data he null analysis of precipitation for the period of 2009-
hypothesis was tested at 95 % confidence level. 2017 with two additional stations (Begnas station
After that, linear trend lines were plotted to and Panchase station) of Kaski, given in Table 4,
compare the results obtained from the Mann- shows that the annual precipitation is maximum
Kendall test. in Lumle station while the minimum is in
Panchase station during the 2009-2017 period.
  The data from both the tables confirm that the
  Kaski district has the maximum rainfall in July
and the minimum rainfall in December.

Table 3: Maximum and minimum precipitation (2001-2008).

Monthly Monthly Annual Annual
Total
Name of maximum minimum maximum minimum
precipitation
station precipitation precipitation precipitation precipitation
(mm)
(mm) (mm) (mm) (mm)
Pokhara
30994.0 7181.3 (July) 71.4 (Dec) 4512.5 (2001) 3262.7 (2008)
Airport

Malepatan 30310.8 7558.7 (July) 80.8 (Dec) 4251.5 (2007) 2982.5 (2006)

Lumle 45348.8 11535.0 (July) 93.3 (Dec) 6310.2 (2003) 4294.7 (2006)

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Table 4: Maximum and minimum precipitation (2009-2017).

Monthly Monthly Annual Annual
Total
Name of maximum minimum maximum minimum
precipitation
station precipitation precipitation precipitation precipitation
(mm)
(mm) (mm) (mm) (mm)
Pokhara
32304.0 8418.2 (July) 43.3 (Dec) 3970.0 (2014) 3256.4 (2016)
Airport
Malepatan 33567.3 9084.5 (July) 197.3 (Dec) 4462.5 (2017) 3033.7 (2009)
Begnas 28648.0 7657.4 (July) 43.0 (Dec) 3600.9 (2011) 2424.6 (2009)
Lumle 46276.9 14330.0 (July) 67.0 (Dec) 5700.4 (2010) 4688.5 (2015)
Panchase 23164.0 6796.9 (July) 10.5 (Dec) 3875.0 (2014) 1782.9 (2010)

3.2. Precipitation Trend:

3.2.1. Seasonal Precipitation Trend

Table 5: Seasonal precipitation trend (2001-2008).

S. Name of p- Sen's p- Sen's
τ Trend τ Trend
No. Stations value Slope value Slope
Winter Pre- Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 -0.14 0.71 -1.59 Decreasing -0.07 0.90 -1.59 Decreasing
Airport
2 Malepatan -0.22 0.47 -6.09 Decreasing -0.06 0.92 -14.15 Decreasing
3 Lumle -0.06 0.92 -1.70 Decreasing -0.61 0.03 -13.89 Decreasing
Monsoon Season Post Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 -0.57 0.06 -175.01 Decreasing 0.00 1.00 1.23 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan -0.50 0.08 -240.92 Decreasing -0.22 0.08 -240.92 Decreasing
3 Lumle -0.06 0.92 -13.42 Decreasing -0.06 0.92 -13.42 Decreasing

Table 6: Seasonal precipitation trend (2009-2017).

S. Name of p- Sen's p- Sen's
τ Trend τ Trend
No. Station value Slope value Slope
Winter Pre- Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.06 0.92 0.94 Increasing 0.33 0.25 20.35 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.14 0.68 1.45 Increasing 0.17 0.60 9.94 Increasing
3 Begnas 0.25 0.40 6.45 Increasing 0.11 0.75 7.90 Increasing
4 Lumle 0.17 0.60 4.51 Increasing 0.39 0.18 12.70 Increasing
5 Panchase 0.22 0.47 4.36 Increasing 0.28 0.35 15.21 Increasing
Monsoon Season Post Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.11 0.75 19.10 Increasing 0.11 0.75 4.63 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.28 0.35 83.96 Increasing 0.06 0.92 1.25 Increasing
3 Begnas 0.01 1.00 -6.80 Decreasing -0.11 0.75 -3.35 Decreasing
4 Lumle -0.39 0.18 -102.88 Decreasing -0.06 0.92 -1.80 Decreasing
5 Panchase 0.39 0.18 142.38 Increasing -0.11 0.75 -5.29 Decreasing

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As presented in Tables 5 and 6, in the winter range, 6.71 mm per season in the sub-tropical
season, the average precipitation shows an range and 5.29 mm per season in the temperate
increasing trend of 1.27 mm per season at the range.
upper tropical range, 1.41 mm per season at the
3.2.2. Annual Precipitation Trend:
sub-tropical range and 3.36 mm per season at the
temperaure range. In pre-monsoon season, the As shown in Tables 7 and 8, in the upper tropical
average precipitation shows an increasing trend range, the average annual precipitation is
of 0.01 mm per season at the upper tropical range, decreasing at the rate of 2.22 mm per year, 8.13
15.21 mm per season at the temperature range and mm per the year in sub-tropical range and is
a decreasing trend of 0.60 mm per season in the increasing at the rate of 13.47 mm per year in
sub-tropical range. In the monsoon season, the temperate range. More moisture can be hold by a
average precipitation shows an increasing trend warmer atmosphere, and water vapor increases by
of 2.84 mm per season at the sub-tropical range 7 % for every degree centigrade of warming
and 142.38 mm per season at temperate range but globally [18]. Although, the translation of this
a decreasing trend of 71.58 mm per season at the phenonmenon to global changes in precipitation
upper tropical range. In the post-monsoon season, is quite unclear, the total volume of precipitation
the average precipitation showed a decreasing is likely to increase by 1-2 % per degree of
trend of 23.89 mm per season at the upper tropical warming [18].

Table 7: Annual precipitation trend (2001-2008).

S. No. Name of station τ p-value Sen's Slope Trend
1 Pokhara Airport -0.16 0.65 -11.55 Decreasing
2 Malepatan -0.02 0.58 -12.30 Decreasing
3 Lumle -0.14 0.51 -12.53 Decreasing

Table 8: Annual precipitation trend (2001-2008)

S. No. Name of station τ p-value Sen's Slope Trend
1 Pokhara Airport 0.05 0.53 -0.33 Decreasing
2 Malepatan 0.13 0.42 9.20 Increasing
3 Begnas -0.05 0.55 0.82 Increasing
4 Lumle 0.00 0.57 -3.73 Decreasing
5 Panchase 0.10 0.49 13.47 Increasing

3.3. Maximum Temperature Trend: season in the upper tropical range, 0.19 °C per
season in the sub-tropical range and 0.27 °C per
3.3.1. Seasonal Maximum Temperature
season in temperature range. In the monsoon
Trend:
season, the maximum temperature is increasing
Seasonal maximum temperature trend analysis by 0.07 °C per season in the upper tropical range
was performed for the two periods which are but decreasing at the rate of 0.19 °C per season in
shown in Table 9 and Table 10. In the winter sub-tropical range and 0.17 °C per season in
season, maximum seasonal temperature showed temperate range. In the post-monsoon season, the
an increasing trend of 0.17 °C per season in the average maximum temperature is increasing at
upper tropical range and 0.06 °C per season in the rate of 0.1 °C per season in the upper tropical
temperate- range but the decreasing trend of 0.05 range, decreasing at the rate of 0.02 °C per season
°C per season in sub-tropical range. Similarly, in in the sub-tropical range and increasing at the rate
the pre-monsoon season, the maximum of 0.05 °C per season in the temperate range.
temperature decreases at the rate of 0.09 °C per

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Table 9: Seasonal maximum temperature trend (1970-2009).

S. Name of p- Sen's p- Sen's
τ Trend τ Trend
No. Stations value Slope value Slope
Winter Pre- Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.03 1.00 0.01 Increasing 0.11 0.75 0.05 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.21 0.06 0.02 Increasing -0.20 0.08 -0.04 Decreasing
3 Lumle 0.49 0.00 0.06 Increasing -0.10 0.40 -0.03 Decreasing
Monsoon Season Post Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.17 0.60 0.03 Increasing -0.22 0.47 -0.06 Decreasing
Airport
2 Malepatan -0.17 0.13 -0.04 Decreasing 0.37 0.00 0.06 Increasing
3 Lumle -0.04 0.71 -0.01 Decreasing 0.54 0.00 0.09 Increasing

Table 10: Seasonal maximum temperature trend (2010-2017).

Name of p- Sen's p- Sen's
S. No. τ Trend τ Trend
Stations value Slope value Slope
Winter Pre- Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.50 0.11 0.20 Increasing -0.36 0.27 -0.19 Decreasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.50 0.11 0.15 Increasing -0.21 0.54 -0.19 Decreasing
3 Begnas 0.86 0.00 0.33 Increasing -0.29 0.39 -0.10 Decreasing
4 Lumle -0.14 0.71 -0.16 Decreasing -0.64 0.04 -0.35 Decreasing
5 Panchase 0.21 0.54 0.06 Increasing -0.43 0.17 -0.27 Decreasing
Monsoon Season Post Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.64 0.03 0.12 Increasing 0.43 0.17 0.11 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.86 0.00 0.14 Increasing 0.43 0.17 0.11 Increasing
3 Begnas 0.71 0.02 0.25 Increasing 0.57 0.06 0.19 Increasing
4 Lumle -0.33 0.32 -0.12 Decreasing -0.43 0.17 -0.13 Decreasing
5 Panchase -0.07 0.90 -0.13 Decreasing 0.14 0.71 0.05 Increasing

3.3.2. Annual Maximum Temperature Trend: range. In the sub-tropical range, the average
annual maximum temperature is decreasing at the
As Table 11 and Table 12 represent, the average
rate of 0.06 °C per year. In the temperate range,
annual maximum temperature is increasing at the
the average annual maximum temperature is
rate of 0.082 °C per year in the upper tropical
decreasing at the rate of 0.066 °C per year.

Table 11: Annual maximum temperature trend (1970-2009).

S. No. Name of station τ p-value Sen's Slope Trend
1 Pokhara Airport 0.38 0.07 0.04 Increasing
2 Malepatan 0.23 0.25 0.03 Increasing
3 Lumle 0.37 0.01 0.05 Increasing

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Table 12: Annual maximum temperature trend (2010-2017).
S. No. Name of station τ p-value Sen's Slope Trend
1 Pokhara Airport 0.17 0.39 0.08 Increasing
2 Malepatan 0.23 0.25 0.03 Increasing
3 Begnas 0.32 0.29 0.16 Increasing
4 Lumle -0.31 0.43 -0.17 Decreasing
5 Panchase -0.05 0.64 -0.07 Decreasing

range, increasing at the rate of 0.02 °C per season

3.4. Minimum Temperature Trend:
in the sub-tropical range and increasing at the rate
3.4.1. Seasonal Minimum Temperature of 0.17 °C per season in the temperate range. In
Trend: the post-monsoon season, the average maximum
Seasonal minimum temperature trend analysis temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.001 °C
was performed for the two periods, which are per season in the upper tropical range, increasing
shown in Tables 13 and 14. In the winter season, at the rate of 0.09 °C per season in the sub-
the seasonal minimum temperature is increasing tropical range and no change in the temperate
at the rate of 0.17 °C per season in upper tropical range.
range, it is increasing at the rate of 0.13 °C per 3.4.2. Annual Minimum Temperature Trend:
season in the temperate region, and it is
Tables 15 and 16 represent the annual minimum
increasing at the rate of 0.34 °C per season in the
temperature trend. In the upper tropical range, the
sub-tropical region. Similarly, in the pre-
average annual minimum temperature is
monsoon season, the minimum temperature is
increasing at the rate of 0.08 °C per year. In the
increasing at the rate of 0.07 °C per season in the
sub-tropical range, the average annual maximum
upper tropical range, 0.12 °C per season in the
temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.057 °C
tropical range and decreasing at the rate of 0.1 °C
per year and in the temperate range the average
per season in the temperate range. In the monsoon
annual maximum temperature is increasing at the
season, the maximum temperature is increasing at
rate of 0.08 °C per year.
the rate of 0.04 °C per season in the upper tropical

Table 13: Seasonal minimum temperature trend (1970-2009).

S. Name of p- Sen's p- Sen's
τ Trend τ Trend
No. Stations value Slope value Slope
Winter Pre- Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.03 1.00 0.01 Increasing 0.11 0.75 0.05 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.51 0.00 0.09 Increasing 0.50 0.00 0.07 Increasing
3 Lumle 0.95 0.00 0.33 Increasing -0.16 0.14 -0.02 Decreasing
Monsoon Post Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.17 0.60 0.03 Increasing -0.22 0.47 -0.06 Decreasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.46 0.00 0.00 Increasing 0.39 0.01 0.06 Increasing
3 Lumle 0.22 0.05 0.02 Increasing 0.06 0.62 0.00 Increasing

695 amsl). The data of 90 days were collected

3.5. Precipitation Data Analysis:
from the local rain gauge station and compared
The data obtained from the local rain gauge was (Table 17). Fig. 3 shows the variation in
compared with the data obtained from the rain cumulative precipitation recorded by these two
gauge installed by DHM at Begnas (Latitude: different stations. The total amount of
28.10 °N, Longitude: 84.20 °E, and Elevation:

K. Basnet et al.                                                                                                                                                 19 
 Himalayan Journal of Applied Science and Engineering (HiJASE), Vol. 1, Issue 1, No. 11, 2020 
precipitation collected in the local rain gauge was established by the Department of Hydrology was
2129.4 mm (June-August, 2018), and the amount 1963.4 mm (June-August, 2018).
of precipitation collected by the rain gauge
Table 14: Seasonal minimum temperature trend (2010-2017).
S. Name of p- Sen's p- Sen's
τ Trend τ Trend
No. Stations value Slope value Slope
Winter Pre- Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.64 0.04 0.28 Increasing 0.07 0.90 0.05 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.29 0.39 0.25 Increasing 0.07 0.90 0.08 Increasing
3 Begnas 0.50 0.11 0.19 Increasing 0.14 0.71 0.10 Increasing
4 Lumle 0.62 0.07 0.36 Increasing 0.33 0.37 0.25 Increasing
5 Panchase 0.29 0.39 0.13 Increasing -0.21 0.54 -0.10 Decreasing
Monsoon Season Post Monsoon Season
Pokhara
1 0.47 0.14 0.08 Increasing 0.50 0.11 0.12 Increasing
Airport
2 Malepatan 0.36 0.27 0.06 Increasing -0.26 0.45 -0.05 Decreasing
3 Begnas 0.14 0.71 0.03 Increasing -0.07 0.90 -0.03 Decreasing
4 Lumle 0.14 0.76 0.03 Increasing 0.68 0.05 0.18 Increasing
5 Panchase 0.29 0.39 0.17 Increasing -0.04 1.00 0.00 No trend

Table 15: Annual minimum temperature trend (1970-2009).

S. No. Name of station τ p-value Sen's Slope Trend
1 Pokhara Airport 0.10 0.67 0.02 Increasing
2 Malepatan 0.31 0.13 0.06 Increasing
3 Lumle 0.07 0.41 0.00 Increasing

Table 15: Annual minimum temperature trend (2010-2017).

S. No. Name of station τ p-value Sen's Slope Trend
1 Pokhara Airport 0.30 0.38 0.13 Increasing
2 Malepatan 0.20 0.57 0.11 Increasing
3 Begnas 0.17 0.49 0.07 Increasing
4 Lumle 0.18 0.57 0.12 Increasing
5 Panchase 0.19 0.52 0.08 Increasing

Table 16: Comparision of established and DHM As the stations were not located exactly at the
rain gauge stations. same place, slightly different values of
Cumulative Cumulative precipitations are observed in those stations
precipitation precipitation
though it was similar for the first few days.
Month at DHM rain at local rain
gauge station gauge station Therefore, the local rain gauge station's
(mm) (mm) precipitations values obviously differ with the
June 578.5 671.5 precipitation values of DHM station if one keeps
July 831.5 708.0 recording for a more extended period than the
August 553.4 750.0 three months of record period for this study.
Total
1963.4 2129.4
Precipitation

K. Basnet et al.                                                                                                                                                 20 
 Himalayan Journal of Applied Science and Engineering (HiJASE), Vol. 1, Issue 1, No. 11, 2020 
gauge station can help to obtain in-situ
precipitation data for designing hydraulic
structures. The World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) suggests the minimum area
for one rain gauge station to be less than 25 km2
for the mountainous region of the world's
temperate and Mediterranean and tropical zone.
But the station at Malepatan and Pokhara Airport
is nearer and also the station at Lekhnath and
Begnas are under the area of 25 km2, yet the
precipitation varies spatially. Hence, in the
districts like Kaski, where there is a heavy
downpour and massive variation in precipitation
Figure 3: Comparison of cumulative precipitation (mm)
patterns within such a short distance, the local
of local and DHM rain gauge stations.
rain gauge station readings need to be considered
4. Conclusion: for economic hydrological constructions and to
avoid the failures of hydraulic structures.
The climate change study was performed for three _______________________________________
climatic zones of Kaski, Nepal, namely; upper
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