Economics For Engineers (Humanities-II) (HSMC 301)
Economics For Engineers (Humanities-II) (HSMC 301)
Interest rate is said to be the earning power of money. Because of interest rate and time
factor, the numerical value of money (not purchasing power) multiplies over a period of time.
Interest is the cost of using capital as well as the reward of parting with one’s liquidity (saved
money).
We are acquainted with two types of interest rates so far, i.e., simple interest rate1 and
compound interest rate. Apart from these two interest rates, some other interest rates which
are used in economic evaluation of projects are: nominal interest rate, effective interest rate,
and continuous effective interest rate.
When we are asked with interest rate, it is generally understood that these interest rates are
charged annually. But sometimes, interest rates are charged periodically, and then it becomes
a case of nominal interest rate.
Nominal interest rate is an annual interest rate which is a product of interest rate per period
and number of periods in a year.
Effective interest rate (ieff) is the ratio of interest to principal amount. It is used to have
comparison between investments.
Lim
m ∞ ieff = lim m ∞,
Compound interest factors are the use of different compound interests, when multiplied by a
single sum or multiple series to produce an equivalent sum or series.
1
Simple interest rate may be exact or ordinary. In Exact simple interest, time period is based on calendar dates,
whereas in ordinary simple interest general time period is taken into account.
2 Cash Flow Diagrams
Cash flow diagrams are graphical representation of cash flows (inflows and out flows) along
a time line. Individual inflows or outflows are designated by vertical lines and relative
magnitude can be represented by the heights of lines. Cash inflows are designated by vertical
lines above the axis and cash outflows below the time line axis. Inflows take a positive sign
whereas outflows take negative sign. Cash flow diagrams involve magnitude and direction
fulfilling the properties of flow.
Single payment cash flow: It involves a single present or future cash flow. The diagram of
this is given below.
F (inflow)
0 time line n
P (outflow)
In this diagram there is single cash out flow (P) which occurs at ‘0’ time and Cash inflow of
(F), which occurs at nth time.
Uniform series: Here cash flows involve a series of equal amounts occurring at equal interval
of time. It is also known as annuity.
Annuity cash flow
0 1 2 3 4 n
Time line
A+2G
A+G
0 1 2 3 4 n
Ag n-1
Ag3
Ag2
Ag
0 4 n
1 2 3
Irregular payment series: When the cash flows do not display any regular overall pattern over
time, the series is known as Irregular payment series.
Compound interest factor is that factor when multiplied by a single amount or uniform series
gives an equivalent amount at compound interest. There are eight types of compound interest
factors. Let’s discuss one by one.
a) Single payment compound amount factor: Here given Future amount ‘F’; it is needed to
find out ‘P’ amount. It means F is converted to P amount by help of rate of interest ‘i’
and time period ‘n’. The notation used for this conversion is (F/P,i,n)
F= P (F/P, i, n) = P (1+i) n
b) Single payment present worth factor: To find the present worth of a future amount, this
factor is used. The notation for this is (P/F, i, n)
P= F (P/F, i, n) = F (1+i)-n
C) Equal payment series compound amount factor: Given annuity amount, it is needed to
find out F amount.
F= A (F/A, i, n) = A [(1+i) n-1]/i
d) Equal payment series sinking fund factor: In this case given a fund F which needs to
be filled up (sank) in terms of annuity (A) amount.
Time value equivalence is based on equivalent numerical value not equivalent purchasing
power. If two cash flows can produce same effects, then it is said that there is an equivalence
existing between these two cash flows. For example, we can say that INR 1000 is equivalent
to INR 1210 after two years at a rate of interest 10% per annum.
ii) To find out the equivalent amount of any single as well as cash flow series.
Present worth calculation depend on the nature of cash flows, i.e., whether the cash flows are
cost-dominated cash flow stream or revenue-dominated cash flows stream. If majority of cash
flows from a project are inflows, then the said cash flow stream is known to be revenue-
dominated and if majority of cash flows are costs, then cash flow stream is known to be cost-
dominated cash flow. In case of revenue –dominated cash flows, all the inflows take a
positive sign and all the out flows take a negative sign. But the reverse happens in case of
cost- dominated cash flow stream.
Let’s take that the cash flows of X project are given, P is the initial investment, R1, R2, R3,
R4, R6 are the cash inflows for respective years and C5 is the additional investment amount
in year 5. Now let’s find the present worth amount of project X
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project
X P R1 R2 R3 R4 C5 R6
The above cash flows are an example of revenue- dominated cash flow. Therefore,
Pw (X) i = -P+ R1/ (1+i) 1+ R2/ (1+i) 2+ R3/ (1+i) 3 + R4/ (1+i) 4 – C5/ (1+i) 5 + R6/ (1+i) 6
2
See Riggs, Bedworth and Randhawa (2004), p. 80-81.
3.3 Applications of Present worth Comparison Method
Present worth method can be applicable to the following four different cases. Viz.
3
See, ibid, p.90.
4 Future worth comparisons
When each of the cash flows of projects is expressed in terms of future time by the help of
discounting factor is known as the future worth method4. We are able to get the future value
of each of the projects and compare whose worth is the maximum and accordingly the project
with the highest future value is preferred.
Fw= Pw (F/P, i, n)
= Pw (1+i) n
Payback period method finds out how quickly the investment amounts of a project get
recovered. Therefore this method tries to find the minimum time period required to get back
the invested amount of a project. This period is known as payback period of a concerned
project. This method emphasises on the riskiness of the project and is indifferent to
profitability. So this method ignores the cash flows happening beyond payback period.
Although this method of comparison is not equivalent to present worth (or future method) as
the former does not entertain the discounted cash flows, but this method is the simplest one. It
is particularly applicable to small investment projects.
But the above technique does not satisfy the basic criteria of time value of money. Therefore
discounted payback period method is said to be a better method over PBP method by
applying discounting factor to the cash flows.
4
FW method is also based on the same conditions on which present worth method is based.
Module II
1 Equivalent annual worth comparisons
Equivalent Annual Worth5 (EAW) method is a measure of cash flows in terms of equivalent
equal payment occurring on a yearly amount.
a) Compute the NPW (i.e., PW of inflows- PW of outflows) of the cash flow stream
b) Multiply the amount of NPW by the capital recovery factor
AEW (i) = NPW [A/P, i, n]
= NPW [i (1+i) n]/ [(1+i) n-1]
c) The decision rule
If AEW (i) is > 0, accept the project
If AEW (i) is < 0, reject the project
If AEW (i) is = 0, remain indifferent
AEW can be applied to three different cases based on lives of assets. Life of the assets
defined as the number of compounding periods appropriate for the analysis of cash flows of
the projects. Asset life may be described by three concepts: Ownership/ service life,
accounting life and economic life/ optimal replacement interval. Let’s understand these
concepts.
i) Ownership life: This is also known as service life of the project. It is defined as the
duration of time an asset/project is kept in service by the owners.
5
Equivalent annual cost is used to designate the comparisons involving only costs, whereas EAW is used when
both cost as well as income is present.
ii) Accounting life: It is the life expectancy which is taken into account for tax
considerations and maintaining book keeping.
iii) Economic life: It is the life time of the asset which finds the appropriate time for
replacement. Within this time period the asset’s total equivalent annual cost is
minimised and the net annual income is maximised.
For comparing assets having equal lives, the cash flows may be converted to equivalent
annual costs. If initial cost and salvage value is involved, then annual equivalent worth can be
derived as
Equivalent annual cost (EAC) = P (A/P, i, n) - S (A/F, i, n)
We know that (A/P, i, n) = i (1+i) n/ (1+i) n – 1
[i (1+i) n/ (1+i) n – 1] –i = i/ (1+i) n – 1
(A/P, i, n)- i= (A/F, i, n)
Replacing the value of the above equation in
EAC= P (A/P, i, n) - S (A/F, i, n)
EAC= P (A/P, i, n) – S {(A/P, i, n)-i}
= (P-S) (A/P, i, n) + Si
In case of assets having unequal lives, each of the cash flows are converted in terms
equivalent annual amount. If this annual amount is the cost, then assets having least annual
equivalent cost are preferred.
2 Rate of Return
Rate of return is a percentage that indicates the relative yield on different uses of capital. In
engineering economic evaluation studies, there are 3 types of rate of used, viz., Minimum
acceptable rate of return (MARR), Internal rate of return (IRR) and External rate of return
(ERR). Let’s describe each of the aforesaid rates of return.
MARR: It is the lowest level of return which makes allows investment and makes an
investment possible.
IRR: It is the discount rate at which net present worth is zero. i.e.,
If B and C are the benefits and costs respectively with respect to different years, then IRR is
calculated as B1-C1/ (1+i) 1= 0
ERR: It is the rate of return that is possible under current economic conditions.
However, our topic of discussion is IRR and its application.
Let’s suppose that there are 2 mutually exclusive projects – A & B and B is more costly.
We can say that B= A+ (B-A)
(B-A) is known as incremental cash flow. Now the steps to find the IRR are as follows:
a) Calculate (B-A)
b) Compute IRR on this incremental cash flow
c) Decision rule is:
IF IRR (B-A) > MARR, then select B project
If IRR (B-A) < MARR, then select A project
IRR (B-A) = MARR, indifferent to take either A or B
IRR is calculated by the following three methods. Viz.,
i) Direct solution method
ii) Trial and error method
iii) Computer solution method
Let’s take an example.
The cash flows for two mutually exclusive alternatives of projects A and B are given. If
MARR is 10% which alternative is to be chosen?
Between these two projects, B project is the costlier one. Therefore it is needed to find out the
incremental cash flow (B-A).
Now the decision rule is that since IRR (B-A) >MARR, i.e., 15.01% > 10%, B project need to
be chosen.
We know that PW (i*) = -9000+2850(P/F, i*, 1) + 4425 (P/F, i*, 2) +4830 (P/F, i*, 3)
Since MARR is 10%, we will start our trial and process from i= 10%
If i*=10%,
PW (10%) = -9000+2850(P/F, 10%, 1) + 4425 (P/F, 10%, 2) +4830 (P/F, 10%, 3) =876.78
We know that there exists an inverse relationship between i and pw.
So in order make the PW zero, i* needs to be raised
If i*= 14%, PW= 165
If i*= 16%, PW= -160.23
The i* at which PW would be zero can be found out by the method of interpolation
For evaluating projects on the basis of national point of view, two most appropriate methods
are used, Viz., Benefit-cost (B-C) analysis and Cost-effectiveness (C-E) analysis. Apart from
these two techniques environmental impact analysis (EIA) complements in evaluating public
projects. Recently National Green Tribunal (NGT) is regarded as an improved criterion in
public undertaking projects. However our discussion is limited to B-C and C-E analysis only.
Cost- benefit analysis helps the planning authority in making correct investment decisions to
achieve optimum resource allocation by maximising net present value of benefits and costs of
a project. B-C analysis displays following characteristics.
i) It involves enumeration, comparison and evaluation of benefits and costs of a project.
ii) Its primary objective is based on achieving net social benefit.
iii) Each of the costs and benefits are expressed in terms of common monetary units.
In case of quantification of costs and benefits, all the relevant items are weighed in terms of a
common denominator like in terms of any national currency. Use of opportunity costs and
prices is also adopted for putting a price (valuating) on each of the costs and benefits.
However, every costs and benefits do not have a market price. In these cases we face some
issues regarding valuation. Some of these issues are noted here:
a) When costs and benefits do not have market value
b) Market imperfections
c) Changes in price level
d) Incorporation of political and social judgement
After carefully going through some of the cases as above indirect method are used.
B-C (i) = Equivalent benefit/Equivalent cost
= B/I+C
Where, B= total benefits from a project
I= equivalent capital invested by the government
C= net equivalent cost to the government
The decision criteria is if B/ I+C > 1, then the project gets accepted
< 1, then it gets rejected
= 1, the there is indifference between acceptance and rejection
For equivalent of benefits and costs, PW, FW or AEW method can be used.
If expressed in PW method B-C (i) = Bp/I+Cp
In terms of FW method = BF/IF+CF
In case of AEW method = BA/IA+C
a) Tax
b) Unemployment
c) Collective goods
d) Intangibles
Although this analysis helps in rejecting inferior projects by emphasising quantitative figures,
still it succumbs to some limitations. These limitations are related to assessment of costs and
benefits, uncertainty, problem of opportunity case, non-market economy, legal constraints,
administrative constraints etc. The biggest limitation of this method is overemphasis of
quantifying costs and benefits and ignorance of non-monetary effectiveness.
3.2.1 Assumptions
Bibliography
Riggs, J. L., Bedworth David D., & Randhawa, S. U. (2004). Engineering economics. New
Delhi: TMH Education Private Ltd.
Whitman, D. L. & Terry, R.E. (2012). Fundamentals of engineering economics and decision
analysis. University of Wyoming: Morgan & Claypool publishers.
Model short type questions (Module-I&II)
In physical sense depreciation is a decline in the physical ability of equipment in the process
of production. In economic sense, it is a decline in the worth of an asset due to outdated
technology and due to changes in psychological factors like tastes and preferences. Likewise,
in accounting sense, depreciation is estimated value of fall in the worth of asset, which is
generally treated as an implicit cost.
i) Physical depreciation
ii) Time factors
iii) Accidental factors
iv) Depletion
v) Deferred maintenance
vi) Inadequacy or functional depreciation
vii) Obsolescence
Generally four basic methods are used for calculation of depreciation and discussed as
follows.
Book Value= P- [n/N (P-S)], where n= No. of years of use and N= Total longevity of
the asset
Declining Balance Method: This method is also known as Written down method. It is
assumed that the value of an asset declines at a decreasing rate. So, more depreciation is
charged during the beginning of the life time and less is charged during the end. Under this
method depreciation is calculated as
D n = R/N [BVn-1]
BV n = I (1-R) n
=
I(S/I) n/N
One of the limitations of this method is that the book value at the end of the life of the asset
may not be exactly equal to the salvage value.
In case of double declining balance method, the rate of depreciation(R) is 200%/N or 2/N.
The depreciation amount is calculated as
Dn =R [BVn-1]
BVn= I (1-R) n
But in case of this method book value may not be equal to the salvage value at the end of its
life time. Therefore, in order to equate BV with S, it is suggested to shift to straight line
method.
This shifting should be done in that year when the following condition is satisfied.
The straight line depreciation charge on the undepreciated portion of the asset’s value is
greater than the double declining allowance.
We can find out SL (D) on the undepreciated portion by the following formula
SL (D) = [BV (n) - S]/N-n
In this method we determine the depreciation charge on the basis of the longevity of the
assets. For example, if an asset has a life of 5 years, it is named as 5-years property.
If N≤10 years, then depreciation charge is 200% and if N≥10 years. Depreciation charge is
150%.
Steps of MARCRs:
After tax evaluations can be made by any of the comparison methods- EAW, PW or IRR.
If IRR is applied, then IRR after tax= IRR before tax (1- effective income tax rate)
3 Break-Even Analysis
Break-even analysis finds a point at which TR=TC. It is a point of output at which there is no
profit and no loss. This analysis can be of 2 types.
TC= FC+ VC
n×p= FC+ VC
np-nv-FC=0
n(p-v)-F=0
= F/ [1-v/p]
Break-even sales can be found out by the difference between actual sales and break-even
sales or [profit×sales]/ [sales-vc]
Margin of safety is an important concept in B-E analysis. It is defined as the sales over and
above the break-even sales. It represents the strength of an investment situation.
TR
&
TC
Output
Fixed Costs are those costs which remain unchanged irrespective of number of outputs,
whereas Variable costs are those costs which change with respect to number of outputs.
R
TR
&
TFC
T
C
Output
P
r Profit
o
fi
t Output
Loss
L
o
s Non-linear TR and linear TC cost function
s
Max π = − = 0
And, − < 0
Likewise we can also find the break even points given Linear TR and non-linear TC
What is sensitivity?
If a small change in an element leads to a proportionately greater change in the results, then
the situation is said to be sensitive to that variable and concerned analysis is called as
Sensitivity analysis.
Objectives of SA
a) To know the change in net present value (NPV) if some parameters change.
b) To identify the highly sensitive variable.
Sensitivity analysis is of two types, i.e., Single-parameter sensitivity analysis and Multiple-
parameter sensitivity analysis. Both the types can be applicable to single proposal case as
well as to alternatives.
In Single-parameter sensitivity analysis, only one variable can be changed, keeping others
constant, whereas is in Multiple-parameter sensitivity analysis, more than one variable can be
changed at a time.
It is important to find the critical point in sensitivity analysis. It is defined as the point at
which the decision for the project changes from acceptable to non-acceptable.
In case of multiple-parameter SA, we need to go for scenario generation approach finding the
PW of optimistic, pessimistic and most-likely estimates. If both extreme estimates (PW of
optimistic and pessimistic estimates) are negative, then the proposal should be rejected, and if
both are positive then, the proposal should be accepted. But in case of the alternatives of
scenario generation approach, majority is taken into account.
Module-IV
1 Costing
Costing is a technique and process of ascertaining the cost of activities of processes, products
or services. Product costing technique covers all the processes of production- manufacturing
and other costs and subsequently assigning them to work-in-process, finished goods and so
on. It is the process of determining costs on the basis of actual data.
We need to collect three elements of costs, i.e., material, labour and other expenditure and
their classification can be shown as follows.
Direct
Material
Indirect
Direct
Elements of cost
Labour
Indirect Overhead
Other
Indirect
Expenditure
Generally two types of methods are taken into account, i.e., job costing and process costing.
Job costing is that system of costing in which costs are ascertained in terms of specific job or
order which are not comparable with each other. Whereas, process costing refers to the
procedure of determining the average unit cost in situations in which the product passes
through more than one stage of production processes.
It refers to the manner of ascertaining cost for the purposes of cost control and decision-
making. Costing techniques include the following techniques.
· Uniform costing
· Marginal costing
· Direct costing
· Absorption costing
· Historical costing
· Standard costing
Process costing refers to the procedure of determining the average unit cost in situations in
which the product passes through more than one stages of production processes. In this
method, we need to find out average unit cost in each of the processes. Thus, it is easier to
find out the wastes, loss or gain happening in each process and accordingly control costs in
respective processes.
It is what arises under efficient operating conditions. It is normal and beyond management’s
control in the short run. The cost of normal loss is regarded as part of the cost of production
of the processes.
Abnormal Loss
Abnormal loss means the loss in excess of normal loss. It is also known as unplanned costs.
· Defining objectives
· Formulating necessary plans to achieve these objectives
· Transforming plans into budgets
· Linking the responsibilities of executives to the budgets
· Continuous comparison of actual results to the budgets
· Finding the causes of deviation (if any) between budgets and actual results.
· Presentation of information to management relating the variances to individual
responsibility.
· Corrective action of management to prevent recurrence of variances.
Standard Costing:
It is the technique whereby standard costs are pre-determined and subsequently compared
with the recorded actual costs. It is a technique of cost ascertainment and cost control.
Current standard
Basic standard
Normal standard
Current standard is defined for use over a short-period of time and is related to current
condition. It is ideal or expected standard.
Normal standard is average standard which is anticipated and can be attained over a long
future time to cover one trade cycle.
Variance is the difference between the standards and the actual performance. It may be of two
types, i.e., favorable variance and adverse variance.
Favorable variance is one when actual results are better than the expected results; whereas
adverse variance happens when actual is worse than the expected.
Sales Variance
Profit Variance
Expenditure variance
Variable overhead
variance
Efficiency variance
Total sales margin
variance
SalesVariance
Sales margin variance
(Profit Method) due to selling price
Due to sales mixture
Sales margin variance
due to volume
Sales quantities
Sales Variance
(Value Method)
4 Cost Reduction
It may be defined as the achievement of actual and permanent reduction in the unit cost of
the goods produced.
Reduction in cost per unit of production may happen by two means. Viz.,
Production design
Organization
Factory layout and equipment
Administration
Marketing
Production plan, program and methods
Material control
Financial Management