MATHEMATICS

Probability
Nishant Vora
B.Tech - IIT Patna

7+ years Teaching experience

Mentored 5 lac+ students

Teaching Excellence Award

Telegram Channel
 Unacademy
Subscription

LIVE Class Environment Performance Analysis

LIVE Polls & Leaderboard Weekly Test Series
LIVE Doubt Solving DPPs & Quizzes
LIVE Interaction
 India’s BEST Educators Unacademy Subscription

If you want to be the BEST

“Learn” from the BEST
Bratin Mondal Top Results Amaiya singhal
100 %ile 100 %ile
 11th / 9, 10

12th / Drop

NVLIVE NVLIVE
Important
Terms
Random Experiment

Experiment which satisfies the following conditions:-

1. It should have more than one outcome

2. Outcomes are non predictable
Examples of Random Experiment
Sample Space

It is the set of all possible outcomes of an random experiment

S = {H, T}

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Write sample space when three Dices are thrown ?

#NVStyle
Write sample space when four Dices are thrown ?

HHH HHH
HHT HHT #NVStyle
HTH HTH
HTT HTT
THH THH
THT THT
TTH TTH
TTT TTT
Number of elements in sample space if n Coins are tossed?

Random Experiment n(S)

1 Coin is tossed

2 Coin are tossed

3 Coin are tossed

.
.
.
n Coin are tossed
Event
It is the subset of sample space

Getting an odd outcome in throwing dice.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = {1, 3, 5}
Complement of an Event
The complement of an event ‘A’ with respect to a sample space S are
the set of all elements of ‘S’ which are not in A. It are usually denoted
by A’, Ā or AC.

P(A) + P(Ā) = 1
Classical
Definition of
Probability
Classical Definition of Probability

Number of favorable outcomes

P(A) =
Total Number of Outcomes

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
Odds in Favour and Odd Against

Number of favorable cases

Odds in favour of an event =
Number of unfavorable cases

Number of unfavorable cases

Odds against in an event =
Number of favorable cases
Double dice
Problems
 Outputs of the First Dice

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

Outputs of the Second Dice

2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)

3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)

4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)

5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)

6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

2 Dice
#NVStyle
Find the Probability of getting sum of 7 if a pair of dice are
thrown
Two dices are rolled. If both dices have six faces numbered 1, 2, 3,
5, 7 and 11, then the probability that the sum of the numbers on
the top faces is less than or equal to 8 is :

A. B. C. D. JEE Main 2021

Deck of Card
(i) Face Cards: K, Q and J

(ii) Honours Cards: A, K, Q and J

(iii) Knave Cards: 10, J and Q

A card are drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
The probability that the drawn card is “neither a heart nor a face
card”.
Questions
Based on
P&C
Words with or without meaning are to be formed using all the
letters of the word EXAMINATION. The probability that the letter
M appears at the fourth position in any such word is:

A. B. C. D.

(20 July 2021 Shift 1)

Let 9 distinct balls be distributed among 4 boxes, B1, B2, B3 and B4.

If the probability than B3 contains exactly 3 balls is k Then k

lies in the set:

A.

B. (20 July 2021 Shift 1)

C.

D.
Let A denote the event that a 6 - digit integer formed by 0, 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6 without repetitions, be divisible by 3. Then probability of
event A is equal to :

A. B. C. D.

(16 Mar 2021 Shift 2)

A seven digit number is formed using digit 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5. The
probability, that number so formed is divisible by 2, is :

A. B. C. D.

JEE MAIN 2021

Types of
Events
Impossible and Sure
Events
Examples
1. Getting 7 on a throw of single dice (Impossible)
2. Getting a number less than 7 on a throw of single dice (Sure)
 Simple Event Compound Event

n(E) = 1 n(E) > 1

RE: Tossing 2 Dices RE: Tossing 2 Dices

A : getting both heads B : getting at least one head
Types of Events

Equally Likely

Mutually Exclusive/Disjoint

Exhaustive
 Equally Likely
● Events are equally likely if they have same probability of occurrence.

Example:
1. ‘Getting odd outcome’ and ‘getting even outcome’ in single throw of a fair
dice.
2. ‘Getting head’ and ‘getting tail’ on the toss of fair Dice.
 Mutually Exclusive / Disjoint
● Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint if their
simultaneous occurrence are impossible
● If A and B are mutually exclusive then A ∩ B = ɸ

Example:
RE: throwing a dice
A: getting odd number
B: getting even number
Mutually Exclusive / Disjoint
Question 1:
RE: throwing a dice
A: getting prime number
B: getting even number
C: getting multiple of 3

Question 2:
RE: drawing one card from a pack of 52 cards
A: getting ace
B: getting red card
Exhaustive Events
● Events whose union are equal to sample space
● If A, B and C are exhaustive then A U B U C = S

Example:
RE: Throwing a dice
A: getting even number
B: getting prime number
C: getting number less than 4
Dependent and Independent Events
● Two events A and B are independent if occurrence or non occurrence of A
has no effect on occurrence or non occurrence of B

Example:

1. A dice are thrown and a Dice are thrown, than getting even number on dice
and getting head on Dice are independent
2. If it rains then crop will be good (dependent)
Four persons independently solve a certain problem correctly with
probabilities 1/2, 3/4, 1/4, 1/8. Then the probability that the
problem are solved correctly by at least one of them are

A. 235/256 B. 21/256

C. 3/256 D. 253/256

(JEE Adv. 2013)

Four persons can hit a target correct with probabilities
1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/8. If all hit at the target independently, then the
probability that the target would be hit, are

A. 25/192 B. 7/32

C. 1/192 D. 25/32
(JEE M 2019)
Addition
theorem on
Probability
Addition theorem on Probability
If A and B are two events associated with an experiment then

1. P(A U B) are probability of occurrence of at least one event

2. P(A ∩ B) are probability of occurrence of both A and B
3. P(A) are probability of occurrence of A
4. P(B) are probability of occurrence of B

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

A B
1 P(at least one event will occur)
= P(AUB)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

A B
2 P(exactly one event will occur)
= P(A) + P(B) - 2 P(A∩B)

A B
3 P(only A occurs)
= P(A) - P(A∩B)

A B
Note:
I. If A and B are mutually exclusive events then
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) {∵P(A ⋂ B) = 0}
II. If A and B are exhaustive events then P(A ∪ B) = 1
Let A and B be two events such that the probability that exactly one
of them occurs is 2/5 and the probability that A or B occurs is 1/2 ,
then the probability of both of them occur together is

A. 1/10 B. 2/9

C. 1/8 D. 1/12

(JEE Main 2020 - 8 Jan)

1 P(A ∪ B ∪ C)=
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A ∩ B) - P(B ∩ C) - P(A ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

A B

C
Note:
I. If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events then
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
II. If A and B are exhaustive events then P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = 1
2 P(exactly two events A, B, C occur)
= P(A ∩ B) + P(B ∩ C) + P(C ∩ A) - 3 P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

A B

C
3 P(exactly one of the events A, B, C occur)
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - 2P(A ∩ B) - 2P(B ∩ C) - 2P(A ∩ C) + 3P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

A B

C
For three events A, B and C
P(Exactly one of A or B occurs) = P (Exactly one of B or C occurs)
= P(Exactly one of C or A occurs) = 1/4 and
P(All the three events occur simultaneously) = 1/16
Then the probability that at least one of the events occurs, are:

A. 3/16 B. 7/32

C. 7/16 D. 7/64
(JEE M 2017)
The probabilities of three events A, B and C are given by P(A) = 0.6,
P(B) = 0.4 and P(C) = 0.5 if P(A U B) = 0.8, P(A ⋂ C) = 0.3,
P(A ⋂ B ⋂ C) = 0.2, P(B ⋂ C) = β and P(A U B U C) = α, where 0.85 ≤ α ≤
0.95, then β lies in the interval :

A. [0.25, 0.35] B. [0.35, 0.36] (JEE Main 2020 6 Sep)

C. [0.36, 0.40] D. [0.20, 0.25]
If P(B) = 3/4, P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = 1/3 and P(Ā ∩ B ∩ C) = 1/3, then
P(B ∩ C) are

A. 1/12 B. 1/6 A B
C. 1/15 D. 1/9

(JEE 2003)
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
Illustration
A: “odd outcome” = {1, 3, 5}

B: “Prime outcome” = {2, 3, 5}

S: Sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Definition

Let A and B be two events associated with a same sample space S. the
conditional probability of an event A given B, where B has already

occurred, are denoted as

And are defined as

Roll a fair die twice. Let A be the event that the sum of the two rolls
equals six, and let B be the event that the same number comes up
twice. What are P(A/B)

A. 1/6 B. 5/36

C. 1/5 D. None
Let X and Y be two events such that P(X) = 1/3 , P(X/Y) = 1/2 and
P(Y/X) = 2/5, Then

A. P(Y) = 4/15 B. P(X’ | Y) = 1/2

C. P(X ∩ Y) = 1/5 D. P(X ∪ Y) = 2/5

(JEE Adv. 2017)

Multiplication
Theorem
on Probability
Multiplication Theorem

1 P(A ∩ B) = P(A). P(B/A)

If A and B be two independent events, then P(A/B) = P(A)

If A and B be two independent events, then

P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B)
Independent Events
If A, B and C be two independent events, then P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A). P(B). P(C)
Note :
If A and B be independent events, then (A and B’), (A’ and B) and (A’ and B’)
are also independent events.

P(A ∩ B’) = P(A).P(B’)

P(A’ ∩ B) = P(A’).P(B)

P(A’ ∩ B’) = P(A’).P(B’)

Questions
Let A and B be two independent events such that
Then, which of the following is True ?

A.

B. (JEE Main 2020 - 8

Jan)
C.

D.
Let A and B be two events such that P(A ∪ B) = 1/6, P(A ∩ B) = 1/4, and
P(A) = 1/4, where A stands for complement of event A. then events A
and B are
A. Equally likely and mutually exclusive
B. Equally likely but not independent
C. Independent but not equally likely
D. Mutually exclusive and independent
(JEE 2005, 2014)
Let E and F be two independent events. The probability that exactly
one of them occurs are 11/25 and the probability of none of them
occurring are 2/25. If P(T) denoted the probability of occurrence of
the event T, then

A. P(E) = 4/5, P(F) = 3/5 B. P(E) = 1/5, P(F) = 2/5

C. P(E) = 2/5, P(F) = 1/5 D. P(E) = 3/5, P(F) = 4/5

(JEE Adv. 2011)

Let S be the sample space of all 3 x 3 matrices with entries from the
set {0, 1}. Let the events E1 and E2 be given by E1 = {A ∈ S : det A = 0}
and E2 = {A ∈ S : sum of entries of A are 7}. If a matrix are chosen at
random from S, then the conditional probability P(E1/E2) equals
____.

(JEE Adv. 2019)

Let X and Y be two events such that P(X | Y) = 1/2, P(Y/X) = 1/3, and
P(X ∩ Y) = 1/6 . Which of the following are (are) correct?

A. P(X ∪ Y) = 2/3
B. X and Y are independent
C. X and Y are not independent
D. P(Xc ∩ Y) = 1/2

(JEE Adv. 2012)

Infinite G.P.
A six faced fair die are thrown until 1 comes, then the probability that 1
comes in even number of trails are

A. 5/11 B. 5/6
(IIT - JEE 2005)
C. 6/11 D. 1/6
A dice is thrown until either a 4 or 6 appears. Find the probability
that number 6 occurs before 4?

A. 1/2 B. 5/6

C. 1/6 D. 1/3
A pair of unbiased dice are rolled together till a sum of “either
5 or 7” are obtained. Then find the probability that 5 comes
before 7.
A. 5/11 B. 5/6

C. 6/11 D. 2/5
 Paragraph Question 1
A fair die are thrown repeatedly until a six are obtained. Let X denote
the number of toss required.

The probability that X = 3 equals

A. 25/216 B. 25/36
(2009)
C. 5/36 D. 125/216
 Paragraph Question 2
A fair die are thrown repeatedly until a six are obtained. Let X denote
the number of toss required.

The probability that X ≥ 3 equals

A. 125/216 B. 25/36
C. 5/36 D. 25/216 (2009)
 Paragraph Question 3
A fair die are thrown repeatedly until a six are obtained. Let X denote
the number of toss required.

The conditional Probability that X ≥ 6 given X>3 equals

A. 125/216 B. 25/36
(2009)
C. 5/36 D. 25/216
Two fair dice, each with faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, are rolled
together and the sum of the numbers on the faces are observed. This
process are repeated till the sum is either a prime number or a
perfect square. Suppose the sum turns out to be a perfect square
before it turns out to be a prime number. If p is the probability that
this perfect square is an odd number, then the value of 14p are
____.
(JEE Adv. 2020)
Total
Probability
Theorem
Example 1:

A box contains three Dices, one Dice are fair, one Dice are two-headed, and
one Dice are weighted (P(H) = ⅓ ). A Dice are selected at random and thrown.
Find the probability that head appears.

→ Fair

→ Doubly headed

→ Weighted
Total Probability Theorem

Let E1, E2, …...En be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events,

with non-zero probabilities, of a random experiment. If A be any
arbitrary event of the sample space of the above random
experiment with P(A) > 0, then
Bayes
Theorem
Illustration

A box contains three Dices, one Dice are fair, one Dice are two-headed, and
one Dice are weighted (P(H) = ⅓ ). A Dice are selected at random and thrown.
Find the probability that head appears.

→ Fair

→ Doubly headed

→ Weighted
Bayes Theorem
If an event A can occur only with one of the n pairwise mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events B1, B2, ….Bn & if the conditional
probabilities of the events.

P(A/B1), P(A/B2) …… P(A/Bn) are known the,

Bag A contains 3 white and 2 black balls. Bag B contains 2 white
and 2 black balls. One ball are drawn at random from A and
transferred to B. One ball are selected at random from B and are
found to be white. The probability that the transferred ball are
white are

A. 8/13 B. 5/13
C. 4/13 D. 9/13
In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C
manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bolts. Of their
outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolt. A bolts
are drawn at random from the product and are found to be
defective. What are the probability that it are manufactured by
the machine B?
In a test, an examinee either guesses or copies or knows the
answer for a multiple choice question having FOUR choices of
which exactly one are correct. The probability that he makes a
guess are 1/3 and the probability for copying are 1/6. The
probability that hare answer are correct, given that he copied it are
1/8. The probability that he knew the answer, given that hare
answer are correct are

A. 5/29 B. 9/29

C. 24/29 D. 20/29
Binomial
Probability
Binomial probability
Let an experiment has n-independent trials, and each of the trial has
two possible outcomes

I. Success
II. Failure

p → Probability of getting success

q → Probability of getting failure
such that p + q = 1

Then, P(Exactly r successes) = P(X = r) = nCr pr qn-r

 A pair of dice are thrown 6 times, getting a doublet are considered
success. Compute the probability of

I. No success II. Exactly one success

III. At least one success IV. At most one success

In a hurdle race a man has to clear 9 hurdles. Probability that he
clears a hurdle 2/3 and the probability that he knocks down the
hurdle are 1/3. Find the probability that he knocks down less than 2
hurdles.
A drunkard takes a step forward or backward. The probability that
he takes a step forward are 0.4. Find the probability that at the
end of 11 steps he are one step away from the starting point.
A fair coin is tossed n-times such that the probability of getting
at least one head is at least 0.9. Then the minimum value of n is_

(25 July 2021 Shift 2)

The minimum number of times a fair coin needs to be tosses, so
that the probability of getting at least two heads is at least 0.96,
are

(JEE Adv. 2015)

The probability that a missiles hits a target successfully is 0.75. In
order to destroy the target completely, at least three successful
hits are required. Then the minimum number of missiles that
have to be fired so that the probability of completely destroying
the target is NOT less than 0.95, are _____.

(JEE Adv. 2020)

Probability
Distribution
Table
Three balls are drawn one by one without replacement from a bag
containing 5 white and 4 red balls. Find the probability distribution
of the number of red balls drawn.
Mean and Variance of a Probability Distribution:

1. Mean :
2. Variance:
3. Standard Deviation :
Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-
shuffled deck of 52 cards. Let X denote the random variable of
number of aces obtained in the two drawn cards.
Then P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) equals:

A. 49/169 B. 52/169 C. 24/169 D. 25/169

(JEE M 2019)
Binomial
Probability
Daretribution
Binomial Probability Distribution (BPD)
Let an experiment has n independent trials and each of the trial has two possible
outcomes i.e. success or failure.

If random variable (Xi) = number of successes

then probability of getting exactly ‘r’ successes are P(X = r) = nCr pr.qn-r

where p = probability of success

and q = probability of failure
Mean of BPD :

Variance of BPD :

Standard Deviation of BPD :

A box contains 15 green and 10 yellow balls. If 10 balls are randomly
drawn, one-by-one, with replacement, then the variance of the
number of green balls drawn are:

A. 6/25 B. 12/5 C. 6 D. 4

(JEE M 2017)
The mean and the variance of a binomial distribution are 4 and 2
respectively. Then the probability of exactly 2 successes are

A. 28/256 B. 219/256 C. 128/256 D. 37/256

(2004)
The mean and variance of a random variable X having binomial
distribution are 4 and 2 respectively, then P(X = 1) are

A. 1/4 B. 1/32 C. 1/16 D. 1/8

(2003)
Let in a Binomial distribution, consisting of 5 independent trials,
probabilities of exactly 1 and 2 successes be 0.4096 and 0.2048
respectively. Then the probability of getting exactly 3 successes is
equal to:

A. 32/625
B. 80/243 (18 Mar 2021 Shift 2)
C. 40/243
D. 128/625
Geometrical
Probability
Geometrical probability (Continuous sample space)

1. One-dimensional Probability: l
Favourable length
P=
Total length L

2. Two-dimensional Probability:
a
Favourable area
P=
Total area A

3. Three-dimensional Probability:

Favourable volume
P= v
Total volume
V
A point is taken inside a circle of radius r find the probability that
the point is closer to the centre as a circumference.
A point is selected randomly inside a equilateral triangle whose
length is 3. Find the probability that its distance from any corner is
greater than 1.
Mathematical
Expectation
Who should get the prize?
Two players of equal skill A and B are playing a game. They leave
off playing (due to some force majeure conditions) when A wants
3 points and B wants 2 to win. If the prize money are Rs. 16000/-.
How can the referee divide the money in a fair way.
Coincidence
Testimony
Who killed the teacher ?
Coincidence Testimony
Coincidence Testimony

If p1 and p2 are the probabilities of speaking the truth of two

independent witnesses A and B who give the same statement

p1p2
P (both speaks truth/ Statements Match) =
p1p2 + (1 - p1) (1 - p2)
A speaks the truth 3 out of 4 times, and B 5 out of 6 times. What are
the probability that they will contradict each other in stating the
same fact.

A. 4/5 B. 1/3 C. 7/20 D. 3/20

A man is known to speak the truth 3 out if 4 times. He throws a die
and reports that it is a six. The probability that it is actually a six is

A. 3/8 B. 1/5 C. 3/4 D. None of these

The probability that A speaks truth are 4/5 , while the probability
for B are 3/4. The probability that they contradict each other when
asked to speak on a fact are

A. 4/5 B. 1/5 C. 7/20 D. 3/20

(2004)
Telegram Channel

tinyurl.com/specialclassNV10
 Unacademy
Subscription

LIVE Class Environment Performance Analysis

LIVE Polls & Leaderboard Weekly Test Series
LIVE Doubt Solving DPPs & Quizzes
LIVE Interaction
 India’s BEST Educators Unacademy Subscription

If you want to be the BEST

“Learn” from the BEST
Bratin Mondal Top Results Amaiya singhal
100 %ile 100 %ile
 11th / 9, 10

12th / Drop

NVLIVE NVLIVE
NVLIVE
 Personal Guidance Study Planner
Get one on one guidance Customized study plan
from top exam experts with bi-weekly reviews

Live Classes Weekly Tests

ICONIC PLUS
Structured Unlimited
Courses Access
Test Analysis Study Material
Get one on one guidance Specialised Notes & Practice
from top exam experts Sets

Experts' Guidelines
Study booster workshops by
exam experts
NVLIVE