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BON 410 (2023, Assignment 1 Question Paper)

This document outlines an assignment for an Operations Research course. It consists of 5 questions worth a total of 60 marks. Question 1 has 4 parts related to Markov chains and transition probabilities. Question 2 asks about the probability of one or both friends being selected from two vacancies. Question 3 deals with probabilities related to defective parts from shipments. Question 4 gives a probability distribution and asks to determine values and probabilities related to it. Question 5 asks about probabilities for the lifetime of a certain type of tire based on its probability density function.

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65 views3 pages

BON 410 (2023, Assignment 1 Question Paper)

This document outlines an assignment for an Operations Research course. It consists of 5 questions worth a total of 60 marks. Question 1 has 4 parts related to Markov chains and transition probabilities. Question 2 asks about the probability of one or both friends being selected from two vacancies. Question 3 deals with probabilities related to defective parts from shipments. Question 4 gives a probability distribution and asks to determine values and probabilities related to it. Question 5 asks about probabilities for the lifetime of a certain type of tire based on its probability density function.

Uploaded by

Grethe
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

Assignment 1
15 March 2023

Module code and subject name: BON 410 – Operations Research

Lecturer and Examiner: Professor VSS Yadavalli (University of Pretoria)

• Answer ALL the questions.


• Please note that all questions do not carry the same marks.
• This paper has 3 pages, and, 5 questions.
• Intermediate steps are expected to be shown for each problem. You
may receive marks for the correct method used, not for the correct
answer only.
• There are Graduate Attributes (GA), GA1 and GA 2, from ECSA evaluated
at developmental level.
• No programmable calculator can be used.
• You need to submit the solutions on clickUP. The clickUP will be opened at
10h00 and close strictly by 17h00 on 15 March 2023.

Marks: 60

1
Question 1 [ 22 ]

Let {Xn , n ≥ 0} be a Markov chain with state space {1,2,3 }, and with a transition probability matrix P,
0.25 0.50 0.25
P = [0.10 0.70 0.20]
0.20 0.60 0.20
Given that the initial distribution, P[X0 = 1] =0.3 ; P[ X0 = 2] = 0.6; P[X0 = 3] = 0.1
(i) Find the P [X3 = 2, X2 = 3 │ X1 = 1] and P [ X3 = 1, X2 = 2, X1 =2] ,
(ii) Find P[ X3 = 2]
(iii) Find the mean number of units of time it takes to reach state 1 for the first time, when initially it started
with State 3.
(iv) Find the stationary distribution of {Xn}
Question 2 [ 13 ]
Two friends A and B appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The probability of A’s selection is
40% and that of B’s selection is70%. What is the probability that only one of them will be selected? What is the
probability that none of them will be selected?

Question 3 [ 8 ]

Three shipments of parts are received. The first shipment contains 1000 parts with 10% defectives, the
second shipment contains 2000 parts with 5% defectives and the third shipment contains 3000 parts with
4% defectives. One shipment is selected at random. Three parts are tested and found good. Find the
probability that the tested parts were selected from the first shipment.

Question 4 [ 8 ]
The probability distribution of the random variable X, X denoting the number of defective items in the sample, is given
below:
Value of X, x : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
p(x) : c 3c 5c 7c 9c 11c 13c 15c 17c
(i) Determine the value of c
(ii) Find P [ X < 3], P [X > 3], P [0 < X < 5]
(iii) What is the smallest value of a for which P [ X ≤ a ] = 0.5?
(iv) Find the mean and variance.

2
Question 5 [ 9 ]
The mileage X in thousands of kilometres which car owners get with a certain kind of tyre is random variable having
probability density function

f(x) = 0.05 𝑒 −0.05𝑥 ; x > 0


Find the probabilities that one of these tyres will last
(i) at most 15 000 kilometres
(ii) anywhere from 25 000 to 40 000 kilometres
(iii) at least 50 000 kilometres

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