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Case Study 2

This case study discusses forecasting techniques for sales data and labor demand. It includes: 1) Calculating a 4-period and 5-period moving average forecast for sales data from Periods 5-8. 2) Using exponential smoothing with an uncertainty coefficient of 0.15 to forecast labor demand for 2023 based on 2022 data. 3) The importance of considering time horizons when selecting and using forecasting techniques. Appropriate horizons depend on the context and goals of the forecast.

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Althea Griffiths-Brown
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48 views1 page

Case Study 2

This case study discusses forecasting techniques for sales data and labor demand. It includes: 1) Calculating a 4-period and 5-period moving average forecast for sales data from Periods 5-8. 2) Using exponential smoothing with an uncertainty coefficient of 0.15 to forecast labor demand for 2023 based on 2022 data. 3) The importance of considering time horizons when selecting and using forecasting techniques. Appropriate horizons depend on the context and goals of the forecast.

Uploaded by

Althea Griffiths-Brown
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Case Study 2: Forecasting

a) A local supermarket chain had the following actual sales for successive
periods:

Periods Number of cases

Period 1 410
Period 2 370
Period 3 500
Period 4 550
Period 5 510
Period 6 620
Period 7 580
Period 8 518

You are required to calculate forecast sales for:


i. Periods 5 to 7 using a four-period moving average (5 marks)

ii. Periods 6 to 8 using a five- period moving average (5 marks)

b) The following data represented labour requirements for year 2022, for a
large Printing operation in Kingston. As part of the management team, it is
your responsibility as HR Manager, to put systems in place to meet labour
demand for 2023. Use the following forecasting techniques to estimate the
requirements for 2023.

Period Ja Fe Mar Apr May Ju Ju Au Se Oc Nov De


n b n l g p t c
Labour 25 40 26 27 32 48 33 37 37 50 45 41

Required:
Using the exponential smoothing model is given by: Ft+1 = (1 – a) Ft + a At
calculate the exponentially smoothed values for each month, assuming that
the demand for January has not changed. Smoothing coefficient
(uncertainty): a = 0.15, for all calculations. (12 Marks)

c) Discuss the importance of time horizons and their use in forecasting. (3


Marks)

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