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Case Study SCM

This document presents a case study assignment involving forecasting tire usage for Tires for You, Inc. It provides actual tire usage data from October 2014 to December 2015. It then asks to calculate forecasts using: 1) a simple 3-month moving average, 2) a weighted 3-month moving average, and 3) exponential smoothing. Formulas and calculations are shown for each forecasting method.

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Kalpana Ratan
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41 views2 pages

Case Study SCM

This document presents a case study assignment involving forecasting tire usage for Tires for You, Inc. It provides actual tire usage data from October 2014 to December 2015. It then asks to calculate forecasts using: 1) a simple 3-month moving average, 2) a weighted 3-month moving average, and 3) exponential smoothing. Formulas and calculations are shown for each forecasting method.

Uploaded by

Kalpana Ratan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Kalpana Ratan (20221-32355)

Supply chain management


Case study assignment
Tires for You, Inc.
Case questions:
1. Calculate a forecast using a simple three-month moving average.

PERIOD TIRES USED THREE-MONTH MOVING


AVERAGE
October, 2014 9797
November 11,134
December 10,687
January, 2015 9,724 10,539
February 8786 10515
March 9254 9732
April 10691 9255
May 9256 9577
June 8700 9734
July 10192 9549
August 10751 9383
September 9724 9881
October 10193 10222
November 11599 10223
December 11130 10505

2. Calculate a forecast using a three-period weighted moving average. Use weights of 0.60,
0.30, and 0.10 for the most recent period, the second most recent period, and the third
most recent period, respectively.

PERIOD TIRES USED WEIGHTED THREE-MONTH


MOVING AVERAGE
October, 2014 9797
November 11,134
December 10,687
January, 2015 9,724 10,732
February 8786 10154
March 9254 9258
April 10691 9161
May 9256 10069
June 8700 9686
July 10192 9066
August 10751 9651
September 9724 10378
October 10193 10079
November 11599 10108
December 11130 10990

3. Calculate a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. Assume the forecast for
period 1 is 9,500. Use alpha = 0.40
Given:
Initial forecasting = 9500
Smoothing constant = 0.4
Single exponential smoothing = last period’s forecast + smoothing constant (forecast
error)
Forecast error = actual demand of last period – last period’s forecast

PERIOD TIRES USED Exponential smoothing


forecasting
October, 2014 9797 9500 (given)
November 11,134 9619
December 10,687 10225
January, 2015 9,724 10410
February 8786 10135
March 9254 9596
April 10691 9459
May 9256 9952
June 8700 9673
July 10192 9284
August 10751 9647
September 9724 10089
October 10193 9943
November 11599 10043
December 11130 10665

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