5 Diagnostic Demand Planning Questions
5 Diagnostic Demand Planning Questions
By Radhika Agarwal
8 February 2023
Here’s what maturity, in this context, means. If your organisation uses a simple moving
average for forecasting with just a year of historical data – your maturity is at a lower
level.
However, if you use seasonality and trend to categorise shipments, you’re at the next
level of maturity. Teams that use advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning
(AI/ML), along with first-flight collaboration platforms, are recognised as being at a top
level of maturity.
It’s imperative that you choose the right solution for your specific needs. The prudent
thing to do is start with a solution corresponding to the maturity of your processes,
planners, and data.
If you answered three or more questions with a “yes”, your organisation may be at
a low- to mid-maturity level. However, you can reach a higher level of maturity with
the right technology enablers, collaborative planning, and analytics-driven insights.
SOLAR is the answer
No, we’re not trying to take you off the grid. SOLAR stands for Sales & Operations,
Live And Ready. This Chainalytics application has the answers to your planning
technology questions. With Chainalytics’ many years of accumulated expertise in
Integrated Demand & Supply Planning, we can now bring you SOLAR to help upgrade
your demand planning process.
Loaded with many features, SOLAR is not your typical demand planning tool:
A screenshot of the Web-based interface for Chainalytics’ SOLAR Demand Planning System (click to enlarge).
The demand planning tool your organisation needs is within your grasp. Reach out to
us and see how Chainalytics, an NTT DATA company, Will enable you to take the first
steps on the quest for demand planning maturity. Our top supply chain talent, enabled
by proven, leading-edge digital assets – tools, methods, and content – deliver
actionable insights and measurable outcomes to some of today’s largest and most
complex supply chains.
Radhika Agarwal is a Manager in the Integrated Demand & Supply Planning
competency at Chainalytics. Her areas of expertise include Demand Planning, Supply
Planning, and Sales and Operations Planning.
How do we define demand planning? It is the planning work that must be done to
position supply chain to consistently deliver the right materials or services to its internal
customers at the right time, right place, and right price. Good demand planning is
absolutely essential to success in supply chain management. Some hallmarks of an
effective demand planning process are illustrated below.
Every utility we work with experiences several of the key demand planning “pain
points” shown in the table below.
The first step to effectively addressing these key pain points is recognizing that the
supply chain organization cannot fix the problem alone but must tightly integrate with
engineering, operations, and maintenance. The second step is to ensure that all of the
players are clear on the key accountabilities of all stakeholders (work management,
maintenance, procurement, materials management, etc.). And the third step is to manage
the most essential materials, assets, or services through collaborative demand planning
(CDP), which is a leading practice approach that relies on cross-functional teams with
empowered participants, routine meetings with structured agendas and pre-work to
support inputs, an unbiased and responsible organization running a disciplined process,
and a variety of other important ingredients. CDP is not easy to do, but the
disproportionate payback is worth the up-front investment of time and resources.
Moving forward through these three steps will require the adoption of a variety of
leading practices that must be employed to address each pain point. But ultimately,
getting demand planning right is only 40% about knowing the right things to do. The
other 60% is tied to establishing the appropriate accountabilities and exhibiting the
constructive behaviors that support effective planning.
To learn more about how to improve demand planning in your organization and
leverage front-end improvements for a disproportionately positive impact, please
contact us.
Contributing Authors
Reviewing common interview questions based on the role you're applying for is a
helpful way to prepare thoughtful answers. This can also help you improve your
confidence and appear more professional when you meet with a hiring manager. If
you're applying for a position as a demand planner, there are several industry-related
topics an interviewer may ask you about to assess your experience and skill set.
role:
1. How do you prioritize your work to ensure you meet important deadlines?
2. Why do you want to become a demand planner?
3. What are your career plans for the next five years?
4. How'd you hear about this position?
5. Why are you interested in working for this company?
6. How do you resolve conflict in the workplace?
7. Why do you think you're the best candidate for this job?
8. What are your salary requirements?
9. How would you define success in this position?
10. Do you have any questions about this role or the company?
1. In your previous role as a demand planner, what tools or strategies did you use
to analyze large quantities of data?
2. Tell me about a time you made an excellent demand forecast. What made it
successful?
3. Tell me about a time when a demand forecast you developed was inaccurate.
What steps did you take to fix it?
4. Can you give me an example of when you had to explain a demand forecast to a
supervisor using nontechnical terms?
5. Based on your previous experience, what are you most excited about for this
role?
6. Based on your previous experience, what about this role dould be challenging?
7. What actions have you taken to improve your skills as a demand planner over
the last year?
8. In your previous role as a demand planner, what metrics did you use to measure
your success?
9. Describe a typical workday in your most recent demand planner position.
10. How would your previous employers describe you?
8. ?
9. What project management systems have you worked with in the past?
10. What types of software programs do you use to develop accurate forecasts?
Hiring managers may ask you this question to determine whether you understand what
skills and qualities are necessary to succeed as a demand planner. Consider what type of
skills the employer may look for by referencing the job description for the open
position. Then, use this as an opportunity to highlight skills that could help you excel in
this role.
As a demand planner, you may be responsible for communicating important trends and
information with persons of interest and company executives using nontechnical
language. Focus on making this information accessible and easy to understand,
demonstrating your communication skills.
3. How do you stay informed about the latest industry trends and data?
Demand planners are responsible for gathering data and tracking the latest industry
trends. Hiring managers may ask you this question to determine how passionate you are
about the role and whether you're committed to learning new things throughout your
career. List a few reputable and relevant resources you use to stay informed about
industry news.
Example answer: "Each morning I browse the latest articles on supply chain forecast
websites while I have my first cup of coffee. This helps me stay updated on consumer
trends that are affecting multiple industries. I'm also subscribed to several industry
newsletters, including Demand Planner Solutions and Market Trend Briefs, which I read
regularly. At least once a quarter, I attend a networking event to meet with other
demand planners and industry experts so I can learn about what trends they're seeing
and apply that knowledge to my role."
Hiring managers may ask this question to determine what your preferred work style is
and whether you may be a good culture fit for the organization. Instead of choosing one
option over the other, share that you enjoy working on both individual tasks and with a
team, depending on the situation.
5. If your production crew was running two weeks behind schedule, what
steps would you take to fulfill customer orders?
Hiring managers may ask a similar question to see how you handle challenging
situations
. Focus on the steps you may take to resolve the issue while maintaining a positive
attitude and open communication.
Example answer: "I'd start by gathering information about why the production crew was
behind to ensure I fully understand the situation and can provide customers with an
accurate timeline. Then, I'd review the orders we need to fulfill to prioritize back orders,
at-risk customers and customers with the highest revenue potential first. After
establishing which orders are top priority, I'd work on optimizing our processes to
minimize late shipments and communicate expected delays with customers."
It's important for businesses to maintain the right balance between having just enough
inventory and a surplus. They can use demand planning to analyze past data and product
trends to determine this balance. If you're a marketing or sales professional, you may
benefit from learning about this process. In this article, we discuss demand planning,
including who uses it, why it's important and how it differs from demand forecasting,
and explore five methods for making predictions.
Severe weather or natural disasters: These factors change both the need for
goods and whether companies can export their goods on time. For example,
during hurricane season, bottled water companies may experience a spike in
demand, but they may experience difficulty exporting their goods if their
distribution centers are in high-risk areas.
Seasons: The changing seasons can affect the desire for certain goods. For
example, the demand for swimsuits rises in the summer and declines in fall.
Labor shortage: If a company is experiencing a shortage of employees, it can
decrease its efficiency in exporting goods to consumers.
Economic change: During a recession, the desire for low-priced generic goods
goes up and the desire for luxury products goes down.
Competition: When new competitors enter the market, demand for established
companies' products can decrease or increase. For example, if a new company
does well, established businesses can experience lower demand.
Location: A company's location can influence consumer desire for its goods. For
example, a company that sells skiing equipment is likely to experience higher
demand in cold-weather places like Colorado rather than warm-weather places
like Florida.
1. Trend projection
This method uses past sales data to make predictions for future sales. It's a simple,
adjustable strategy that considers whether past sales trends may reoccur. For example, if
you had a sudden increase in demand after launching a new social media campaign last
year, those numbers most likely won't occur organically this year. But if you regularly
experience higher demand during the spring, you can project that trend shall continue.
If you're working for a newer company that doesn't have enough past data to reference,
use sales data from similar organizations in your industry. Here are three techniques you
can use for your trend projections:
Graphical method: Plot the annual sales data onto a graph and draw a line
through the plotted points. Based on the line's trajectory, you can make
predictions for your own sales.
The fitted-trend equation or least square: This method examines time series data,
or collections of successive data points that occur at regular intervals, to create
trend equations. The two most common trend equations are linear, which shows
an overall rising trend, or exponential, which shows a trend that increases at a
constant rate across a specific period.
Box-Jenkins method: This method observes the differences between data points
to make predictions. Use this technique when your time series data reveals
regularly occurring seasonal or monthly variations.
2. Market research
When you conduct market research, you gather data directly from your consumers
through surveys. This can give you valuable insight into future sales strategies. An
example of data you can collect is demographics and interests. With market research,
you can analyze future trends, characteristics and numbers within your target audience
to predict how your sales might perform. By understanding your existing customers,
you're more likely to determine how you can seek new opportunities and new customers
in the future.
In this method, you predict demand based on the input of your sales team. A salesperson
often has the closest relationship with a consumer because they often receive
consumers' feedback or requests directly. Therefore, the sales team may have valuable
information on consumer desires and product trends. They may also have information
on other competitors in your field.
The sales team can also be the first to report an issue, such as customers not performing
as expected. This can allow you to make adjustments as needed. Managing the issue
during the demand planning process can save you time and money because you're not
waiting until the end of a project to see what did or didn't work.
The Delphi method uses a panel of multiple outside experts or facilitators to make
predictions. It works best if you have sparse data and require more viewpoints. With
this method, you send these external parties a list of questions about your demand plan,
which they answer anonymously. An example question may be, What is a top priority in
demand planning? Allowing privately submitted responses may create more honest
feedback. Once everyone submits their answers, the panel discusses each point,
eliminating the less viable options. The process then repeats until the panel reaches a
consensus.
5. Econometric model
Econometrics looks at how economic factors relate to each other—for example, how
pursuing an undergraduate degree can create financial debt. In this method, you
combine sales data with outside factors that influence demand to create an equation. The
equation's results might show the future demand for a product, a group of products or
the economy.
New and existing companies tend to function better when they have a visual reference
that provides an overview of expected outcomes and trends. Successful companies often
incorporate forecasting models when planning for the future.
In this article, we will discuss how the most common types of models are used and get
an overview of how to create basic models.
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This type of model uses historical data as the key to reliable forecasting. You'll be able
to visualize patterns of data better when you know how the variables interact in terms of
hours, weeks, months or years.
While there are several methods of completing a time series model, you can follow
these general steps in a spreadsheet to estimate outcomes using information gleaned
from recent analytical data:
1. Have your time-based data available for use (time series and values series).
2. Input the compiled data involving time or duration in the first column.
3. Insert remaining values you want to forecast in the next column.
4. Select relevant data
5. Click the Data tab, then select Forecast Group, then choose Forecast Sheet.
6. Access the sheet, then select the line or bar graph option you want to use.
7. In the Forecast End box, determine your end date and hit Create.
Once you've set up your forecasting model, you will then move onto interpreting it to
formulate your best estimation of the future.
Econometric model
Those employed in the field of economics often use an econometric model to forecast
changes in supply and demand, as well as prices. These models incorporate complex
data and knowledge throughout the process of creation. Like the name infers, this type
of statistical model proves valuable when predicting future developments in the
economy.
Various forecasting models of the judgmental kind utilize subjective and intuitive
information to make predictions. For instance, there are times when there is no data
available for reference. Launching a new product or facing unpredictable market
conditions also creates situations in which judgmental forecasting models prove
beneficial.
This type of forecasting model is especially helpful in the field of research and
development. Focus groups and expert panels can provide insight that no computerized
model would have. For instance, when surveying a group of people about what they
look for in a product, companies can better assess their direction when developing
specific product features.
This method is commonly used to forecast trends based on the information given by a
panel of experts. This series of steps is based on the Delphi method, which is about the
Oracle of Delphi. It assumes that a group's answers are more useful and unbiased than
answers provided by one individual. The total number of rounds involved may differ
depending on the goal of the company or group's researchers.
These experts answer a series of questions in continuous rounds that ultimately lead to
the "correct answer" a company is looking for. The quality of information improves
with each round as the experts revise their previous assumptions following additional
insight from other members in the panel. The method ends upon completion of a
predetermined metric.
Here is a list of steps you can take to make your own judgmental forecasting model:
1. Select a facilitator
Before choosing a facilitator who will manage the discussion, consider the neutrality of
the individual and the person's experiences conducting research. The head of research
and development may choose this role, for example.
When businesses research a product that is not yet on the market, they rely on a panel of
anonymous experts who can weigh in on the matter. Experts can be anyone with
substantial experience in a given topic. For example, in the instance of developing a
new swim product, a company may reach out to instructors or safety experts in the field.
They may even approach professional athletes or loyal customers who use similar
products.
Companies looking to solve a problem must first provide the details surrounding the
problem, as well as the significant details that can help them make an informed
decision. This ensures that everyone understands what is being asked of them.
Businesses may want to create a new monofin with features that none of their
competitors have tried before.
This first round of questions introduces the topic and starts the conversation. The
experts will read the information, provide anonymous feedback and submit their
information back to the facilitator.
After the facilitator has reviewed the answers provided by the panel, edited content,
filtered out irrelevant data and scanned through the content to find common themes, the
facilitator then submits new information to the panel. Members of the panel have the
chance to review the previous responses anonymously and based on the new
information, can resubmit a response to another's statement. They again send their
responses back to the facilitator.
For possibly the last time, the facilitator will review the new responses and again sort
through the information presented before sending out the surveys to the panel.
However, the process may continue until a general consensus is achieved, which can
end in three or four iterations.
7. Take action
Once the researchers have received sufficient information, they can move ahead with
any plans to implement their findings. This may be the start of new product
development or the start of production on an item they were unsure about.
Here are some examples of popular forecasting methods using artificial intelligence:
Large online companies use AI to predict customer behavior on their sites, including the
likelihood of a purchase in the future. Also, site users receive recommended products
through a practice called "collaborative filtering." Offering relevant results to shoppers
takes place by clustering and interpreting consumers' data in conjunction with profile
info and demographics. More data produces higher quality results.
Example: You're looking at a board game called "Fender Bender" on a popular online
shopping site. You scroll down to the bottom of the web page that there are similar
games suggested, based on those who like Fender Bender.
Methods of artificial intelligence drive the accuracy of results you see appear on the
search engine optimization page (SERP). Google uses an algorithm based on machine
learning to provide searchers with quality results, and now, other companies in the e-
commerce sector use similar techniques of artificial intelligence to improve their search
engines as well.
Example: You're searching for "boots for women" using a popular search engine. You
click the search icon and see a page of results that shows boots for women. Many of
them provide winter boots, dressy boots, rain boots, and other suggestions so you decide
to narrow your search even further and type in "winter boots for women," then click the
search button again to see a more curated list of results.
Predictive analytics
Example: A manager of a call center checks his computer software to see a forecast of
how many calls the company may have that day. He decides to have four people on staff
and let the rest take the day off.
1. Demand planner