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72 views5 pages

HW Pages 9.1

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Section 9.1 Hsercies Wf - 595 * A significance test is. procedure for using observed data to decide between ‘wo competing claims, called hypotheses. The hypotheses are often statements about a parameter, like the population proportion p or the population mean jx Uhe claim that we weigh evidence against ina significance testis called the null hypothesis (Hy). "The null hypothesis has the form Hy: parameter — null value {he claim about the population that we are trying to find evidence for is the alternative hypothesis (1, | = Aone. ided alternative hypothesis has the form H,,: parameter < null Xaltic or Hy: parameter > null value. | * _ Atwosided alternative hypothesis has the formn H,: parameter * null value, * Often. Hy is a statement of no change or no difference. ‘The alternative hypothesis states what we hope or suspect is truc Uhe P-value of a test is the probubility of getting evidence for the altern: te hypothesis H, that iy as strong as or stronger than the obse wed evidence when the wull hypothesis Hy is true Stnall P-values are evidence against the null hypothesis and for the alternative hypothesis because they say that the observed result is unlikely toaccurw hen Hy is tine, ‘To determine if a P-value should be considered small, we compare it to the significance level a * We make a conclusion in a significance test based on the P-value. * It P-value a: Fail to reject Hy and conclude there is not convincing evidence for H, (in context) © When we make a conclusion in a significance test, there are two kinds of tnistakes we can make + A Type Terror occurs if we reject Hy when itis, in fact, true. In other | words, the data give convineing evidence for H, when the mull hypothe- sis is correct + A'ype MH ertor occurs if we fail to reject Hp when H, is true. In other swords, the data don't give convincing evidence for H,, een though the alternative hypothesis is correct © ‘The probability of making a Type 1 error is equal to the significance level a There is a trade-off between P(Lype [ error) and P(Type I error): as one increases, the other decreases. So itis important to consider the possible con sequences of each type of error before choosing a significance level est Be sure to define the parameter of interest rgue!_ A Gallup poll report revealed that 72% of teen) said they seldom or never argue with their friends.) Yvonne wonders whether this result holds trae fige high school so she surveys a random {es 1-6, state appropriate hypotheses for perf 1. No Nmessork? Mr. Tabor believes that less than students at his school completed their saath {© bomessork lastnight. ‘Phe math teachers inspect the Homework assignments from a random sample of 50 t students at the school. sample of 150 students at her school 596 CHAPTERS Tk: 3. How much juice? One company’s bottles of grape- fruit jnice ave tilled by a machine that is set to die pene an average of ESO muilliters (al of fig N quality-co machine is wo random simple of 40 bottles and measures the vol- tunic of ligne in each bottle 4. Attitudes ‘The Survey of Study Habits and Attitudes attitudes tows ‘won 0 40.200 Higher scores sand study habits. The students is about 115. A teacher suspects that dents have better erage. She gives the SSHA to an SRS of 45 of the over 1000 students at her college who are at least 30 years of age. ge licate better attitudes mn seore for US, college 5. Cold cabin? During the winter months, the tutes atthe Stanneses” Colo (32°F 61 0°C) for weeks at tn prevent the pipes from freezing, Mrs. Stames sets the thermostat at 30°F. The manufacturer claims that the thermostat allows variati perature of =F. Mry Stames suspects that the manufacturer is ‘overstating the consistency ofthe thermostat below free np Whew ski ke off the distance they fly varies considerably depending on their speed, skill. and wind conditions. Esent organizers mast position fing area to allow for differences in the distances thatthe athletes fl Fora particular competition, the ‘organizers estimate that the variation in distance flown LAIMS ABOUT PROPORTIONS Before the change. 37% of students approve of the parking that’s provided the null hypothesis Hosp 0.37 as tested against the aller Hy p>us (6) Ateseatehcr suspects that the of babies whose mothers did not delivery 1 les than 3000 the hypotheses as Ho w= 3000 grams birth weights a doctor before he researcher states Hy 5 2999 grams students completed theie m ceance test yields a Palle of 0.1265, 1 for the ill hypothesis to (b) Interpret the Palue 10, Attitudes Refer to Eyereise +. In the study of older students’ attitudes, the sample IA seote was nd the sample standard deviation was 298, A (by Intespret the Pavalue 1. How th juice? Refer to Exerc amount of liquid in the bottles is | by dsablets will bew = 10 Pa = standard deviation is 1.3 ml. A significance test yields a ropes Heels tha the onde antes sue of 0.0589. Interpret the Paalue. In bxercises 7 and 8, explain what's wrong with te sted ee Cone en ypothises: Then ge cormect hypotheses. ‘argue with friends. A signifi test yields a Pavalue 7. Stating hypotheses ‘of 0.0291 Interpret the P-value. (a) Achange is made that should improve student satisfaction with the parking situation at a local high school. Before the change, 37% of students approve of the parking that’s provided. The null hypothesis Hy: p > 0.37 is tested against the alternative Hy p= 037 (by A researcher suspects that the mean birth weights of babies whose mothers did not see a doctor before delivery is Jess than 3000 grams. ‘The researcher states, the hypotheses as Hg ¥ = 3000 grams Hy: < 3000 grams 8. Stating hypotheses (@) A change is made that should improve student satisfaction with the parking situation at your schoo 13, Interpreting a Pvalue \ student performs a test of Hy: 1-100 versus Hy: 4 > 100 atid gets a Psa of 00H. The student says, “Here is 0 O44 probability ‘of getting the sample vesult I did by chance alone.” Explain why the stud nt explanation 1s wrong, 14, Interpreting a Pralue A student performs a test of Hy: p= 03 versus HL: p< 0.3 and gets Poalue of 0.22. "The student says. “This means there is about a 22% chauce that the null hypothesis is teue” Esplin ‘why the student’ explanation is wrong, GE No homework Refer to Exercises | and 9. What eon clusion would you make atthe a 0205 level? e 16, Attitudes Reter to Vvcrcises +and 10. What conclusion would you sake atthe ox = 0205 bevel? Oo o How much juice? Refer to Exercises 3 and I What conclusion would you make at the a = 0.10. level? from part (a) change ifa 5% Would your conch i se instead? Explain your ii to Fixercises 2 and 12, a (b) level? Would your conclusion from part (a) change ifa 5% mice level was used instead? Expla reasoning your Hy: p 0.05 sig- nificance level and gets a Paalue of 0.22. The student sites: “Becanse the Pvalue is large, we accept Hl The data provide convincing evidence that th is true” |. Making conclusions A student performs a test of Hp; 4 = 12 versus Hy: pe I2at the a = 0.05 ince level and gets a Pavalue of 001. The student writes: “Because the Paalue is small, we reject Ho. The data prove that H, is true.” Explain what is vwcong with this conclusion. Heavy bread? ‘The mean weight of loaves of bread pro- duced at the bakery where you work is sipposed to be | pound. You are the supervisor of quality control at the bakery, and you are concemed that new employees are prochcing loaves that are too light, Suppose you weigh loaves and find that the mean weight State appropriate hypotheses for performing a significance test. Be sure to define the parameter of interes Explain why there is some evidence forthe altetn hypothesis The Pavalue for the test in part (a) is 0.0806. Interprft the Peale ‘What conclusion would you make at the a = 0.01 significance level? Philly fanaties? Nationally, the proportion of red cars on the road is 0.12. statistically minded fan of the Philadelphia Phillies (whose team color is red) wonders if Phillies fans are more likely to drive red cars. One day during a home game, he takes a random sample of 210 eats parked at Citizens Bank Park (the Phillies’ home field), and counts 35 ted cars. Section 9.1 Exercises V3 597 {@) State appropriate hypotheses for performing a (b) Explain why there is ©) m4. 2 significan neter of evidence for the alternative hypothesis, ‘The P-value for the tes in (a) is 0.0187. Interpret the Pvalue are searching for a good location. wwe done, you know thatthe mea of thos living near the restaurant must be over $85,000 to suppor the typeof upscale restaurant you wish to open. You! decide to take a simple random sample of 50 people living near one potential location. Based on the mean. income ofthis sample, you will perform a test of Hos 000 Hy: p> $85,000 where srs the true mean income in the population of people who live near the restaurant Describe a Type | error and a Type I error inthis setting, and give 3 possible consequence of each Reality TV ‘Television networks rely heavily on ratings of TV shows when deciding whether to renew a show for another season. Suppose a network has decided that “Miniature Golf with the Stars” will only be renewed if it can be established that more than 12% of U.S. adults watch the show: A polling company asks a random sample ‘of 2000 USS. adults if they watch “Miniature Golf with the Stars."‘The network uses the data to perform a test of Hy: p=0.12 Hy p> 012 where p is the tric proportion ofall U.S. adults who watch the show: Describe a Type I ertor and ‘Type Hl ertor in this sting, and give a possible consequence of each. ful accidents Slow response times by paramedics, fteffhters, and policemen can have serous conse. ims. In the case of lifee injuries, victims generally need medical attention within 8 minutes ofthe accident. Several cities have begun to monitor emergency response times. In one such city, emergency personnel took ‘more than 8 minutes to arrive on 22% ofall calls involving life-threatening injuries last year. The city ager shares thi tion and encourages these first responders to “do better.” After 6 months, the: ‘manager selects an SRS of 400 calls involving life- threatening injuries and examines the response infor 598 CHAPTERS I rING CLAIMS ABOUT PROPORTIONS times. She then performs test at the « = 0105 level of Hyp sus HL: p< 0.22, wher proportion of calls involving lifethreatening injuries during this 6-month periad for which emergency per 1S mnintes to ative pis the true this setting, Ipe Lertorand a'Type Ul error Which type of ertoris more serious in this case? justify Based on you iger’s choice of a answer to part (b), do you agree with the 0.052 Why or why not? Clean water The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has determined that safe drinking water should tnost 1.3 miter of copper, on average pply company is testing water from a new source and collects wate in small bottles at each of 30 randomly selected locations. The eompany performs a testat the a = 0.05 significance level of Hy: gt = 1.3 versus Hy: > 13, where isthe n copper Describe a Type I error and a Type Il error in this setting, Which type of error is more serious in this ease? Justify Based on your answer to part (b), do you agree with the company’s choice of a = 0.05? Why or why not? the population of people in the bout 10% ae leftchanded. After g elbows at lunch with several Ief-handed students, Simon wondered if more than 10% of sti dents at his school ate lefthanded. ‘To investigate, he selected an SRS of 50 students and found 8 leis @. ing more than 10% of the students at Simon's clefthanded, 200 trials ofa simulation were conducted. Each dot inthe graph shows the proportion of students that are lefthanded in a random sample cof 50 students, assuming that each student has a 10% chance of being left handed. il Hi ao ol [B= simulated sample proportion of lefties hypotheses for performing a significance test. Be sure to define the parameter of interes. (b) Use the simulation results to estimate the Paalne ofthe test in part (a) Interpret the Psa. (6) What conclusion would you make? istics cam help decide the authorship of literary works. Sonnets by a well-kiown poct contain an average of t = 6.9 new words (words not used in the poet’ other works) and a standard deviation of words, and the numberof new pproximately Normally distributed. Scholars expect sonnets by other words than this famous poet’s works. A new manuscript thas been discovered with many new sonnets, and scholars are debating whether itis this poet's work ‘They take a random sample of ive sonnets fron ‘new manuscript and count the number of new words fone. The me of new words in these ‘The following dotplot shows the results of simul 200 ranklom samples of ize 5 froma Normal distribution with a mean of 69 and a standard deviation of 27, and calculating the mean for each sample. hors to con {@) State appropriate hypotheses for performing a significance test. Be sure to define the pa interest. (b)_ Use the simulation results to estimate the Povahve of the test in part (a) Interpret the Pave (©) What conclusion would you make? Muttiple Choice: Select the best answer for Exercises 29-32. 29. Experiments on leaming in animals sometimes measure how long ittakes mice to find their way through a maze. ‘The mean time is 18 second for one particule maze. researcher thinks that loud nose will ease the mice to complete the maze faster: She measures how Tong each of 10 mice takes with a Toud noise as stimulus ‘The appropt- ate hypotheses for the significance test are 8; Hy: = 18, 8; Hy: w> 18. 1S; Hye =18. a) the w= IB Hg Wes @ Me SHIN MET 050 where pis the proportion of all eity resi nts who support a Ve increase inthe sales tas to fund road re : 30. 'Iype I error in the context of this study oceuns ifthe city council ajority of residents 1 reality there isn't majority supports the finds convincing evidence that a supports the tax inerease, wh (a (b) finds cos supports of city resid ) does not find convincing evidence that a majority of residents supports the tax inerease, when ‘mote than 50% of ety residents do support the (©) docs not find convincing evidene . residents supports the tax inerease, when in reality at most 50% of city residents do support the increase 31. In the sample, p = 158/300 = 0.527. The resulting P-value is 0.18. What is the correct interpretation of this Pale? (3) Only 18% ofthe city residents support the tax increase, (b) ‘There isan 18% chance that th supports the tax increase, orty of residents (0 Assuming that 50% of residents support the tax increase there isan 18% probability thatthe san proportion would be 0.527 or greater by ch alone, Assuming that more than 50% of residents support the tay increase, there isan 18% probability that the nple proportion would be 0.527 or greater by chance alone, a) 32, i) © @ ) 34 599 increase, there isan 18% chance that the null iypothesisis true by ¢ :xercise 31, whieh of the most appropriate conch Based on the Pvalue i following would be th ue i large, we reject Hy. "There is ce that more than 50% of city residents ase, support the tax in Because the P. ‘There issuffici residents support the tax increase ject Hp. There is Because the P-value is large,» sufficient evidence that at most support the tax increase Because the P-value is large, we fail to reject Hy. There is sufficient evidence that at most 50% of city residents support the tax increase, Ito reject Hy. There 1 50% of ity Because the P-value is large, we isnot sufficient evidence that residents support the tax were master’s degrees, Moreoser, women ¢ degrees, 41% of the master's degrees, and 29% of the doctorates.® wy of the math matics degrees given that year ined by worn Justify your answer. Suppose we randomly select snathiematies de person who eamed a cin this cent y ul "Degree wasa nt? Justify your answer probabilities hose 2 of the 24,611 mathematics degrees at random, what isthe probability that at least 1 of th 2 degrees was earned by a woman? Show your work. Explaining confidence (8.1) Here isan explanation fron a newspaper conceming one ofits opinion polls. Explain what is wrong with the following statement Fora poll of 1600 adults, the variation due to sampling error is no miore than 3 percentage points «either way. The error margin is said to be valid at the 95% confidence level. This means that, if the same questions were repeated in 20 polls, the results of ut least 19 surveys would be within 3 percentage points ofthe results of this survey:

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