Hypothesis Tests (1 Population) Video Notes

Basic of Hypothesis Testing

Methods of inferential statistics use sample data to make an inference or ___________________
about a__________________. The two main activities of inferential statistics are using sample data
to:

(1) __________________ a population __________________ (such as estimating a population

parameter with a confidence interval)

(2) __________________ a __________________ or __________________ about a population

parameter.

In statistics, a __________________ is a claim or statement about a property of a population.

A ______________________________ is a standard procedure for testing a claim about a

property of a population.

The main objective of this chapter is to develop the ability to conduct hypothesis tests for claims made
about a population proportion p, a population mean µ, or a population standard deviation σ.

Part 1: The basics of Hypothesis testing

• The null hypothesis (denoted by _____) is a statement that the value of a population parameter
(such as proportion, mean, or standard deviation) is equal to some claimed value.

• We test the null hypothesis directly.

• Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.

• The alternative hypothesis (denoted by H1 or Ha or HA) is the statement that the parameter has a
value that somehow differs from the null hypothesis.

• The symbolic form of the alternative hypothesis must use one of these symbols: ≠, <, >.

If you are conducting a study and want to use a hypothesis test to support your claim, the claim must be
worded so that it becomes the alternative hypothesis.

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Identifying the null and alternative hypotheses:

1. Examine the given statement, then express the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis in
symbolic form.
a. We want to claim that the majority of college students have credit cards.

b. The proportion of people aged 18-25 who currently use illicit drugs is assumed to be equal to
0.20.

The _________________________________ (or __________________________) is the set of all

values of the test statistic that cause us to reject the null hypothesis.

The __________________________________ (denoted by ______) is the probability that the test

statistic will fall in the critical region when the null hypothesis is actually true. Common choices for α
are 0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.

A ___________________________________is any value that separates the critical region (where

we reject the null hypothesis) from the values of the test statistic that do not lead to rejection of the
null hypothesis. The critical values depend on the nature of the null hypothesis, the sampling
distribution that applies, and the significance level α.

The __________________ is the probability of getting a value of the test statistic that is at
least as extreme as the one representing the sample data, assuming that the null hypothesis is
true.

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Null hypothesis is always =
Alternative hypothesis is < : P-value = area to the left of the test
statistic

Alternative hypothesis is > : P-value = area to the right of the test

statistic

Alternative hypothesis is ≠ : P-value = twice the area in the tail beyond

the test statistic

The null hypothesis is rejected if the P-value is very small

Here is a memory tool useful for interpreting the P-value:

If the P is low, the null must go.

If the P is high, the null will fly.

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Don’t confuse a __________________with a _______________________________.

Know this distinction:

• P-value =
probability of getting a test statistic at least as extreme as the one representing sample data
• p =
population proportion

P-value method: Using the significance level alpha:

If P-value <=alpha, reject H0
If P-value > alpha, fail to reject HO
Traditional method: If the test statistic falls within the critical
region, reject H0.
If the test statistic does not fall within the
critical region, fail to reject H0.
Another Option Instead of using a significance level such as
0.05, simply identify the P-value and leave
the decision to the reader.

2. You are given that the test statistic in a right-tailed test is z = 2.13. Find the corresponding P
value and denote it on the graph below
Describe how the test statistic relates:

Here, the test statistic tells our sample

data is 2.13 _______________ above
the _________________.

3. You are given that the test statistic in two-tailed test is z = 3.14. Find the corresponding P value
and denote it on the graph below.
Describe how the p-value relates:

Here, the p-value tells us there is a ____

chance that we observed the sample we
did or more extreme if the ______is true

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WRITING CONCLUSIONS:

Notice that we never support the null, we fail to reject the null. So when we want to say equality, we
don’t support equality, we say there is not sufficient evident to reject equality.
Reject Null Hypothesis significance in the alternative hypothesis claim
Accepting Null Hypothesis not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis claim

Writing conclusion statements for Hypothesis Testing.

We are investigating the following. Write conclusions based on the results:

Claim: The proportion of Americans who prefer blue M&Ms is not 0.5

𝐻𝐻0 : 𝑝𝑝 = 0.5

𝐻𝐻1 : 𝑝𝑝 ≠ 0.5

Conclusion: reject the null

Statement:

Claim: The proportion of Americans who prefer blue M&Ms is not 0.5

𝐻𝐻0 : 𝑝𝑝 = 0.5

𝐻𝐻1 : 𝑝𝑝 ≠ 0.5

Conclusion: fail to reject the null

Statement:

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Claim: The proportion of Americans who prefer blue M&Ms is greater than 0.5

𝐻𝐻0 : 𝑝𝑝 = 0.5

𝐻𝐻1 : 𝑝𝑝 > 0.5

Conclusion: reject the null

Statement:

Claim: The proportion of Americans who prefer blue M&Ms is greater than 0.5

𝐻𝐻0 : 𝑝𝑝 = 0.5

𝐻𝐻1 : 𝑝𝑝 > 0.5

Conclusion: fail to reject the null

Statement:

Never conclude a hypothesis test with a statement of “reject the null hypothesis” or “fail to reject
the null hypothesis.” Always make sense of the conclusion with a statement that uses simple
nontechnical wording that addresses the alternative hypothesis. Failing to reject the null
hypothesis does NOT mean we are accepting the null hypothesis.

We never accept the null !!!!

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ERRORS
• A Type I error is the mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually
_________________.
• The symbol __________________is used to represent the probability of a type I error.
• A Type II error is the mistake of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is actually
__________________.
• The symbol __________________is used to represent the probability of a type II error.

4. Given :

Ho: The dog does not bite

H1: The dog bites

a. Write a conclusion that would result from a type I error.

b. Write a conclusion that would result from a type II error.

5. Given :

Ho: It doesn’t rain

H1: It rains

c. Write a conclusion that would result from a type I error.

d. Write a conclusion that would result from a type II error.

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 Hypothesis Testing: One population Proportion
Here we will be using hypothesis tests to compare a proportion in one group to a specified population proportion.

Basic Methods of Testing Claims about a Population Proportion p

NOTATION:

𝑛𝑛 = sample size or number of trials

𝑥𝑥
𝑝𝑝̂ = : sample proportion
𝑛𝑛
𝑝𝑝 = population proportion (used in the null hypothesis)
𝑞𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝𝑝

For Hypothesis Testing, follow PHANTOMS:

P parameters, p = the true proportion of ….
H  hypotheses
A  assumptions
N  name your test
Tfind your test statistic
O  obtain your p-value
M  make a decision (reject the null or fail to reject the null)
S state a conclusion in the context of the problem

For the Assumptions A 

1) The sample observations are a ________________________________

2) The conditions np ≥ 10 and nq ≥ 10 are both satisfied, (this means use the “p” from the
hypotheses not the 𝑝𝑝̂ from the sample)

The 2nd assumption is so the binomial distribution of sample proportions can be approximated
by a normal distribution with 𝜇𝜇 = 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 and 𝜎𝜎 = �𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛. This means that the EXPECTED
SUCCESSES/FAILS must be greater than 10, not the observed.

Note: p is the assumed proportion not the sample proportion.

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6. In a survey, 1864 out of 2246 randomly selected adults in the United States said that texting
while driving should be illegal (based on data from Zogby International). Consider a hypothesis
test that uses a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that more than 80% of U.S. adults
believe that texting while driving should be illegal.

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7. The company Drug Test Success (DTS) provides a “1-Panel-THC” test for marijuana usage. Among
300 randomly tested subjects, results from 27 subjects were wrong (either a false positive or a
false negative). The DTS claims that less than 10% of all test results are wrong. Is there
sufficient evidence at the 5% level of significance to support the DTS company’s claim?

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8. Research conducted a few years ago showed that 35% of UCLA students had travelled outside
the US. UCLA has recently implemented a new study abroad program and results of a new survey
show that out of the 100 randomly sampled students 42 have travelled abroad. Is there
significant evidence to suggest that the proportion of students at UCLA who have travelled
abroad has increased after the implementation of the study abroad program?

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9. According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the percent of American adults in the United
States who are overweight is 69.0%. You may see this data at
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm Metropolis’s city council wants to know
if the proportion of overweight citizens in their city is different from this known national
proportion. They take a random sample of 150 adults in their city and find that 98 are classified
as overweight. Determine if there is evidence that the proportion in Metropolis is different from
the known national proportion.

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 Hypothesis Testing for One Population Mean

NOTATION:
______: sample size
______: sample mean
______: population mean

For Hypothesis Testing, follow PHANTOMS:

P parameters, 𝝁𝝁 =the true mean ….
H  hypotheses
A  assumptions
N  name the test
T find the test statistic
O  obtain your p-value
M  make a decision (reject the null or fail to reject the null)
S  state a conclusion in the context of the problem

Requirements for Testing Claims About a Population Mean (with σ Not Known)
1) The sample is a random sample.
2) The value of the population standard deviation σ is not known.
3) Either or both of these conditions is satisfied: The population is normally
distributed or n ≥ 30.

�−𝝁𝝁𝒙𝒙�
𝒙𝒙
Test Statistic: 𝑡𝑡 = 𝒔𝒔
√𝒏𝒏

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10. The recorded speeds (in mi/h) is observed from a sample of 40 cars traveling on a section of the
405 freeway in Los Angeles. The sample has a mean of 68.4 mi/h and a standard deviation of 5.7
mi/h (based on data from Sigalert). Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the mean
speed of all cars is greater that the posted speed limit of 65 mi/h.

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11. The trend of thinner Miss America winners has generated charges that the contest encourages
unhealthy diet habits among young women. Listed below are body mass indexes (BMI) of recent
Miss America winners. Use a 0.01 significance level to test the claim that recent Miss America
winners are from a population with a mean BMI less than 20.16, which was the BMI for winners
from the 1920s and 1930s.

19.5 20.3 19.6 20.2 17.8 17.9 19.1 18.8 17.6 16.8

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12. When a robot welder is properly adjusted, its mean time to perform its task is 1.3250 minutes.
An incorrect mean operating time can disrupt the efficiency of other activities along the
production line. For a recent random sample of 80 jobs, the mean cycle time for the welder was
1.3229 minutes with a standard deviation of 0.0056 minutes. Does the machine appear to be in
need of adjustment?

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