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MilesK MAS183 Assessment2

The document discusses several statistical concepts and examples: 1) A 2x2 contingency table showing the relationship between malaria and sickle cell. Independence is tested and rejected. 2) The conditions for a binomial distribution are outlined and applied to an example. 3) Probability calculations are performed for a binomial distribution including mean, standard deviation, and P(X) values. 4) A normal distribution is used to calculate probability proportions for blood arsenic levels. 5) Random sampling methods are discussed for measuring nitrogen levels in a lake. 6) The mean and standard deviation are calculated for a probability mass function.

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22 views5 pages

MilesK MAS183 Assessment2

The document discusses several statistical concepts and examples: 1) A 2x2 contingency table showing the relationship between malaria and sickle cell. Independence is tested and rejected. 2) The conditions for a binomial distribution are outlined and applied to an example. 3) Probability calculations are performed for a binomial distribution including mean, standard deviation, and P(X) values. 4) A normal distribution is used to calculate probability proportions for blood arsenic levels. 5) Random sampling methods are discussed for measuring nitrogen levels in a lake. 6) The mean and standard deviation are calculated for a probability mass function.

Uploaded by

kat
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© © All Rights Reserved
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MAS ASSIGNMENT 2

1.

(a)

Had sickle-cell No sickle-cell Total


Had Malaria 0.06 0.29 0.35
No Malaria 0.17 0.48 0.65
Total 0.23 0.77 1

(b)
P(had malaria/had sickle cell total)
P(0.06/0.23) = 0.26

(c)
P(no malaria/sickle cell total)
P(0.17/0.23) = 0.74

(d)
Statistical independence happens when one of the outcomes does not alter the chance of the
other. Information from the question states that ‘sickle cell appears to protect against
malaria’. To test for statistical independence, we use:
- P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B | A) and P(A | B) = P(A)
OR
- P(B) x P (A | B) and P(B | A) = P(B)

The probability rule of independence P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) can be used
Malaria Present and Sickle Cell Positive = 0.06

P(Malaria Present) x P(Sickle Cell Positive)


= 0.35 x 0.23
= 0.0805

0.0805 is not equal to 0.06 and therefore having malaria is not statistically independent of
having sickle cell

2.
For an observation to be a binomial distribution, five conditions need to be considered
- A definitive number of trials, n
- Only two possible outcomes: ‘success’ and ‘failure’
- The probability of success, p, is the same for each trial
- Trials succeed or fail independently of each other
- The variable under consideration, X, is the number of successes out of the n trials

Given these conditions, it is not appropriate to treat X as a binomial distribution. The


probability of success for each pulse-rate reading of the student will not have the same
probability as there are no control specified and many factors that may affect results such as
whether the student consumes caffeine or has high stress levels.

3.
(a) what is the probability distribution of X?
X follows a binomial distribution as the n trials are independent of each other and have the
same probability of success.

Therefore, X ~ Bin(n,p)
= X ~ Bin(20, 0.70)

(b) calculate
i. The mean and standard deviation
Mean
µ = np
µ = 20 x 0.70
µ = 14

Standard deviation
σ = √ np (1 -p)
σ = √ (20 x 0.70) (1 -0.70)
σ = √ (14) (0.30)
σ = √ 4.2
σ = 2.0494
σ = √ np (1 -p)
σ = √ (20 x 0.70) (1 -0.70)
σ = √ (14) (0.30)
σ = √ 4.2
σ = 2.0494

ii. P(X < 12)

(12,20,0.70)
[1] 0.2277282
P (X < 12) = 1 – P (X ≥ 12)
= 1 – 0.2277282
= 0.7723
P (X < 12) = 0.7723

iii. P(9 ≤ X ≤ 13)

> sum (dbinom (9:13, 20, 0.70))


[1] 0.386852
Therefore, P (9 ≤ X ≤ 13) = 0.3869.

(c) would it be unusual to find 18 red plants in the sample?

> pbinom (18,20,0.70)


[1] 0.9923627
> pbinom (18,20,0.70)
[1] 0.9923627

It would not be unusual as the probability is relatively high, meaning it is likely to happen. It
is also within 2 standard deviations of the mean making it a likely event

4.
(a) What proportion of healthy adults have blood arsenic concentrations between 2 and
4 μg/dL?

Z=x-µ/σ
X ~ N (µ = 3.72, σ = 1.18)
Z = 2 – 3.72 / 1.18 = - 1.458
Z = 4 – 3.72 / 1.18 = 0.237

P (Z ≤ 1.4576) = 0.0721
P (Z ≤ 0.2372) = 0.5948
0.5948 - 0.0721 = 0.5227

0.5227 of healthy adults have blood arsenic concentrations between 2 and 4 μg/dL

(b) Choosing a healthy adult at random, what is the chance that their blood arsenic
concentration exceeds 6.2 μg/dL?

P (X > 6.2) = P(X - µ) / σ


= P(6.2 – 3.72) / 1.18
= 2.1017
P (Z > 2.1017)
= 0.0179

The chances of randomly selecting a healthy adult whose blood arsenic concentration exceeds
6.2 μg/dL is 0.0179

(c) What are the lower and upper limits of the middle 70% of blood arsenic
concentrations in healthy human adults?

Middle distribution = 70% or 0.7


Left and right tails = 30%
0.30 / 2 = 15%

Lower limit:
> qnorm(0.15, 3.72, 1.18)
[1] 2.497009

Upper limit:
> qnorm(0.15, 3.72, 1.18, FALSE)
[1] 4.942991

5.

(a)

Simple Random Samples (SRS) will be used where every case has the same chance of being
included in the sample and every sample has the chance of being selected.

It would be ideal to use a three-dimensional grid because it allows for measurements across
the surface as well as at 5 meters below. In addition, it ensures variance so that each square
has equal chances of being measured accurately. This also opens up the idea that sources of
nitrogen are not just from the farms on the lakeshore.

To ensure this validity of the method and the effectiveness of SRS, the lake should be divided
into 5x3 squares and numbered which assures the samples are selected at random. Then, the
numbers that corresponded to the grid on the lake would be picked using a random number
generator.

(b) As indicated above, two sampling methods are being considered. Which of these
should be preferred if the government agency is primarily concerned with –
(i) regulating fertiliser use on farms, or
Samples should be collected from the water sources mouths that feed into the lake
(ii) environmental management, including water quality in the lake.
Samples should be collected randomly from the lakes surface if the government
agency is concerned with environmental management

6. Calculate –
(a) the mean

µ = Σ P (X – x)
= 1.78

(b) the standard deviation

σ = √ σ²
σ² = ∑ x² P (X = x) - µ²

(12 x 0.35) + (22 x 0.52) + (32 x 0.13) - 1.782


= 0.4316

σ = √ σ²
σ = √ 0.4316²
= 0.6569627082
= 0.6570

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