Reliability (for non-repairable items) can be defined as “the

probability that an item will perform a defined function

without failure under stated conditions for a stated period of
time.”
One must grasp the concept of probabilities in order to
understand the concept of reliability. The numerical values of
both reliability and unreliability are expressed as a probability
from 0 to 1 and have no units.

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The Unreliability, F(t), of a component or system is defined
as the probability that the component or system experiences
the first failure or has failed one or more times during the time
interval zero to time t, given that it was operating or repaired
to a like new condition at time zero.

The Unreliability, F(t), of a component or system at a given

time is simply the number of components failed to time t
divided by the total number of samples tested.

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 R(t) + F(t) = 1
or
Un-reliability F(t) = 1 – R(t)

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Reliability predictions are one of the most common forms of
reliability analysis. Reliability predictions predict the failure rate
of components and overall system reliability. These predictions
are used to evaluate design feasibility, compare design
alternatives, identify potential failure areas, trade-off system
design factors, and track reliability improvement.

Several Reliability Prediction Models

◦ Telcordia/Bellcore SR-332 (Electrical for Telecommunications)
◦ MIL-HDBK-217F (Electrical for Military, some Automotive)
◦ NSWC-98/LE1 (Mechanical)
◦ UNIFAC (Dortmund) model, ( Textiles)

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Reliability predictions are based on failure rates.

Failure Rate r(t) - The failure rate of a component or

system, r(t) , is defined as the probability per unit
time that the component or system experiences a
failure at time t, given that the component or system
was operating at time zero and has survived to time t.

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There are three common basic categories of failure
rates:

1. Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)

2. Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)
3. Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)

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Mean time between failures (MTBF) is a basic measure of
reliability for repairable items. MTBF can be described as the
time passed before a component, assembly, or system fails,
under the condition of a constant failure rate.
Another way of stating MTBF is the expected value of time
between two consecutive failures, for repairable systems.
It is a commonly used variable in reliability and
maintainability analyses.

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MTBF can be calculated as the inverse of the failure rate, λ,
for constant failure rate systems. For example, for a
component with a failure rate of 2 failures per million hours,
the MTBF would be the inverse of that failure rate, λ, or:

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Mean time to failure (MTTF) is a basic measure of reliability
for non-repairable systems. It is the mean time expected until
the first failure of a piece of equipment.

For repairable systems, MTTF is the expected span of time

from repair to the first or next failure.

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Mean time to repair (MTTR) is defined as the total amount
of time spent performing all corrective or preventative
maintenance repairs divided by the total number of those
repairs.
It is the expected span of time from a failure (or shut down) to
the repair or maintenance completion. This term is typically
used with repairable systems only.

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There are four failure frequencies, which are commonly used
in reliability analyses.

1. Failure Density f (t),

2. Failure Rate r(t),
3. Conditional Failure Intensity (or Conditional Failure Rate) λ (t),
4. Unconditional Failure Intensity or Failure Frequency ω(t).

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Failure Density f (t) - The failure density of a component or
system, f (t) , is defined as the probability per unit time that
the component or system experiences its first failure at time t,
given that the component or system was operating at time
zero.

Failure Rate r(t) - The failure rate of a component or system,

r(t) , is defined as the probability per unit time that the
component or system experiences a failure at time t, given that
the component or system was operating at time zero and has
survived to time t.

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Conditional Failure Intensity (or Conditional Failure Rate)
λ (t) – The conditional failure intensity of a component or
system, λ (t) , is defined as the probability per unit time that
the component or system experiences a failure at time t, given
that the component or system was operating, or was repaired
to be as good as new, at time zero and is operating at time t.
Unconditional Failure Intensity or Failure Frequency ω(t)
– The unconditional failure intensity of a component or
system, ω(t) , is defined as the probability per unit time that
the component or system experiences a failure at time t, given
that the component or system was operating at time zero.

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The definitions for failure rate r(t) and conditional failure
intensity λ (t) differ in that, the failure rate definition addresses
any failures of the component or system rather than the first
failure of the component or system.

Whereas, conditional failure intensity λ (t) definition addresses

the first failure of the component or system rather than any
failures of the component or system.

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The difference between the conditional failure intensity (CFI)
λ (t) and unconditional failure intensity ω(t) is that the CFI has
an additional condition that the component or system has
survived to time t. The relationship between these two
quantities may be expressed mathematically as-

ω(t) = λ(t)[1−Q(t)]

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If the failure rate is constant then the following
expressions apply :

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There are three patterns of failures which can be changed with
time. The failure rate (hazard rate) may be decreasing,
increasing or constant.

1. Decreasing Failure Rate

2. Constant Failure Rate
3. Increasing Failure Rate

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Decreasing Failure Rate
A decreasing failure rate (DFR) can be caused by an item, which
becomes less likely to fail as the survival time increases. This
is demonstrated by the first half of the traditional bath tub
curve where failure rate is decreasing during the early life
period.
Constant Failure Rate
A constant failure rate (CFR) can be caused by the application of
loads at a constant average rate in excess of the design
specifications or strength. These are typically externally
induced failures.
Increasing Failure Rate
An increasing failure rate (IFR) can be caused by material
fatigue or by strength deterioration due to cyclic loading. Its
failure mode does not accrue for a finite time, then exhibits an
increasing probability of occurrence.
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9/13/2015 20
“Infant mortality
period”

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FTA is a method of problem solving in situations where the
search for root cause is very difficult but imperative.

This analytical method is mainly used in the fields of safety

engineering and reliability engineering to understand how
systems can fail, to identify the best ways to reduce risk or to
determine event rates of a safety accident or a particular system
level (functional) failure.

FTA is used in the aerospace, nuclear power, chemical and

process, pharmaceutical, petrochemical and other high-hazard
industries;

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 FTA can be used to:
1. Understand the logic leading to the failure/ undesired state.
2. Show compliance with the system (safety / reliability
requirements.)
3. Prioritize the contributors leading to the failure- creating the
critical equipment/parts/events.
4. Monitor and control the safety performance of the complex
system.
5. Minimize and optimize resources.
6. Assist in designing a system.
7. Function as a diagnostic tool to identify and correct causes of the
top event/failure.
8. It can help with the creation of diagnostic manuals / processes.

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Event Symbols
Gate symbols
Transfer symbols.

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Event symbols are used for primary events and intermediate
events.
Primary events are not further developed on the fault tree.
Intermediate events are found at the output of a gate.
The event symbols are shown below:

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The primary event symbols are typically used as follows:
Basic event - failure or error in a system component or element,
External event - normally expected to occur (not of itself a
fault),
Undeveloped event - an event about which sufficient
information is not available, or which is of no consequence,
Conditioning event - conditions that restrict or affect logic
gates,
Intermediate event can be used immediately above a primary
event to provide more room to type the event description.
FTA is top to bottom approach.

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Gate symbols describe the relationship between input and
output events.

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The gates work as follows:
OR gate - the output occurs if any input occurs
AND gate - the output occurs only if all inputs occur (inputs
are independent)
Exclusive OR gate - the output occurs if exactly one input
occurs
Priority AND gate - the output occurs if the inputs occur in a
specific sequence specified by a conditioning event
Inhibit gate - the output occurs if the input occurs under an
enabling condition specified by a conditioning event

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Transfer symbols are used to connect the inputs and outputs of
related fault trees, such as the fault tree of a subsystem to its
system.

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FTA analysis involves five steps:

1. Define the undesired event to study,

2. Obtain an understanding of the system,
3. Construct the fault tree,
4. Evaluate the fault tree,
5. Control the hazards identified.

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Definition of the undesired event can be very hard to catch,
although some of the events are very easy and obvious to
observe.
An engineer with a wide knowledge of the design of the
system or a system analyst with an engineering background is
the best person who can help define and number the undesired
events.
Undesired events are used then to make the FTA, one event for
one FTA; no two events will be used to make one FTA.

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 Once the undesired event is selected, all causes with
probabilities of affecting the undesired are studied and
analyzed.
System analysts can help with understanding the overall
system. System designers have full knowledge of the system
and this knowledge is very important for not missing any
cause affecting the undesired event.
For the selected event all causes are then numbered and
sequenced in the order of occurrence and then are used for the
next step which is drawing or constructing the fault tree.

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After selecting the undesired event and having analyzed the
system so that we know all the causing effects (and if possible
their probabilities) we can now construct the fault tree.
Fault tree is based on AND and OR gates which define the
major characteristics of the fault tree.

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After the fault tree has been assembled for a specific undesired
event, it is evaluated and analyzed for any possible
improvement or in other words study the risk management and
find ways for system improvement.
This step is as an introduction for the final step which will be
to control the hazards identified.
In short, in this step we identify all possible hazards affecting
in a direct or indirect way the system.

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This step is very specific and differs largely from one system
to another, but the main point will always be that after
identifying the hazards all possible methods are pursued to
decrease the probability of occurrence.

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Reliability Testing is used to find failure modes, demonstrate
reliability, and screen out defects.

◦ Finding failure modes can be accelerated and performed on

a limited number of units ahead of production go ahead or
product release
◦ Reliability demonstration often requires multiple units and
regimented procedures. Often done on commodity type
items where it is more affordable.
◦ Screening is often done on items that have a “burn-in”
period

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What is appropriate for your project?
1. Qualification Test
2. Stress Test
3. Life Test
4. Demonstration Test
5. Run-In / Burn-In Test and
◦ Etc

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All products shall successfully pass product qualification tests as
defined by the product specification.
Qualification test should include:
◦ Operating Stresses – operating load and environmental extremes
and rates of change.
◦ Storage Environments – storage extremes and rates of change.
◦ Shipping Environments – shipping extremes and rates of change.

Assess pre and post test performance, looking for outright Failures
and Performance Degradation.

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Step stress testing is intended –
 to identify weaknesses in product design
 to improve product performance and identify overdesign
 to reduce product cost.

In some cases, product reliability may be estimated from step

stress test results.

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Step stress testing should be performed on new or significantly
changed products as early in the product design phase as
possible .
Step stress testing typically includes temperature step stress,
rapid temperature change, and vibration step stress.
Step stress testing might also include other stresses as
appropriate for the product being developed.
Step stress testing is intended to be a test to failure test in order
to learn as much as possible about the product.

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Accelerated life test is intended to accelerate the accumulation of life
stresses on a product
 to simulate usage life in a rapid manner
 to verify product usage life or
 identify weaknesses in the product design.

Product reliability may be estimated from accelerated life test results.

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Accelerated life test should be performed on new or
significantly changed products as early in the product
implementation phase as possible.
Accelerated life test typically includes the simultaneous
application of temperature stress, humidity stress, and
vibration stress.
Accelerated life test might also include other stresses as
appropriate for the product.

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Reliability Demonstration Test involves demonstrating a certain
level of reliability performance with a certain level of confidence to
a specified test condition.
Testing may be failure-free or may involve failures.

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Overall Equipment Effectiveness is a measurement of a production
system’s ability to meet requirements for availability, throughput, and
quality.
It is a percentage calculation that represents the portion of the time that
the system is operating, at specified production rate, to specified quality
standards versus the time that the system was planned to operate.

OEE = Availability x Efficiency x Yield

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OEE = Availability x Efficiency x Yield  How is the
Production
System
performing?

Availability = Uptime / (Uptime + Downtime)

 Is it running?

Efficiency = Design Cycle Time / Actual Cycle Time

 At design rate?

Yield = Good Parts / Total Parts

 Are the parts
good?
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