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SVA Model

This document provides ratio analysis calculations for Halfords Group plc for 2022 and 2021. It includes profitability, leverage, valuation, and other financial ratios. A shareholder value analysis model is also presented, showing projections for sales, operating profits, taxes, investments, and discounted cash flows to determine shareholder value over a 7 year period under base case assumptions. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the shareholder value estimate would change under different growth, profitability, tax, investment, cost of capital, and other assumption scenarios.

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Arshdeep Saroya
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
58 views15 pages

SVA Model

This document provides ratio analysis calculations for Halfords Group plc for 2022 and 2021. It includes profitability, leverage, valuation, and other financial ratios. A shareholder value analysis model is also presented, showing projections for sales, operating profits, taxes, investments, and discounted cash flows to determine shareholder value over a 7 year period under base case assumptions. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the shareholder value estimate would change under different growth, profitability, tax, investment, cost of capital, and other assumption scenarios.

Uploaded by

Arshdeep Saroya
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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RATIO ANALYSIS

CALCULATIONS:
Halfords Group plc
Input data for Profitability Ratios: 2022 2021
Gross Profit 722 656
Operating Income 108 80
Pre Tax Income 97 65
Net Income 78 53
Sales 1,370 1,292
Total Equity 551 418
Total Assets 1,278 1,070
COGS 648 636
PROFITABILITY RATIOS: 2022 2021
Gross Margin 52.69% 50.79%
Gross Profit/Sales
Operating Margin 7.88% 6.15%
Operating Income/Sales
PreTax Margin 7.05% 4.99%
PreTax Income/Sales
Net Profit Margin 5.67% 4.12%
Net Income/Sales
Return on Equity (ROE) 0.14 0.13
Net Income/Tot.Equity
Return on Assets (ROA) 0.06 0.05
Net Income/Tot.Assets

LEVERAGE RATIOS Input: 2022 2021


Total Debt 727 652
Total Equity 551 418
Total Assets 1,278 1,070
EBIT (Operating income) 108 80
Interest Expense
LEVERAGE RATIOS: 2022 2021
Debt/Equity Ratio 1.32 1.56
Total Debt/Total Equity
Debt/Capital Ratio 0.57 0.61
Total Debt/(Tot.Equity+Tot.Debt)
Equity Multiplier 2.32 2.56
Total Assets/Total Equity
Interest Coverage Ratio Nil Nil
EBIT/Interest Expense
VALUATION RATIOS Input: 2022 2021
Earnings (Net Income) 78 53
Total Shares Outstanding 219 222
Current market price 209 328.23
Dividends per share 3.00 3.00
Total Equity 551 418

VALUATION RATIOS: 2022 2021


Earnings per share 0.35 0.24
Earnings/Tot.SharesOutstanding
Price/Earnings Ratio 588.80 1369.68
Market price/Earnings per share
Book Value per Share 2.52 1.88
Tot.Equity/Tot.SharesOutstanding
Dividend Yield 1.44% 0.91%
Tot.Dividends/Market Price
P ro fita bilty ra tio

Operating
Income/Sales
Operating Margin7.88%
6.15%

Gross Profit/Sales

Gross Margin 52.69% 50.79%

% % % % % % %
00 .0
0
.00 .00 .0
0
.00 00
0. 20 40 60 80 0 0 .
10 12

Halford Group Plc 2022 Halford Group Plc 2021


VALUATION RATIOS: 2022 2021
Earnings per share 0.35 0.24
Earnings/Tot.SharesOutstanding
Book Value per Share 2.52 1.88
Tot.Equity/Tot.SharesOutstanding

Valuation ratio

Tot.Equity/Tot.SharesOutstanding

Book Value per Share 2.52 1.88

Earnings/Tot.SharesOutstanding

Earnings per share 0.35


0.24

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Halford Group Plc 2022 Halford Group Plc 2021


%
.00
0
12
Halfords Financial Report for 7 years (All values taken in millions
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Sales 1,370 1,292.3 1,155.1 1,138.6 1,135.1
Change in Sales 77.30 137.20 16.50 3.50 40.10
Growth 5.98% 11.88% 1.45% 0.31% 3.66%

Operating Profit 107.9 79.5 33.0 54.4 69.8


as % of sales 7.88% 6.15% 2.86% 4.78% 6.15%

Tax 18.9 11.3 1.9 9.1 12.4


as % of OP 17.52% 14.21% 5.76% 16.73% 17.77%

Fixed assets 102 81 83.1 97.3 101.3

as % of increase in sales 76.01% 168.76% 19.86% 3.60% 39.59%


as % of sales 7.43% 6.29% 7.19% 8.55% 8.92%

Cash 46.3 67 115.5 9.8 27


Receiavables 92.6 86.1 53.5 59.1 56
Inventory 222 144 173 185.4 195.5
Payables 300 270 217 176.4 187.0
Working Capital 61 27 125 78 92

as % of increse in sales 125.896% 508.148% 13.200% 4.493% 43.825%


as % of sales 4.48% 2.09% 10.82% 6.84% 8.06%
s taken in millions)
2017 2016 Average
1,095.0 1,021.0
74.00
7.25% 5.09%

73.7 82.8
6.73% 8.11% 6.09%

15 16.3
20.35% 19.69% 16.00%

102.8 107.3

71.98% 0.00% 54.26%


9.39% 10.51% 8.33%

16.5 11.9
58.4 60.7
191.1 157.9
206.2 182.5
60 48

123.746% 0.000% 117.044%


5.46% 4.70% 6.07%
Shareholder Value Analysis (SVA) model for Halfords Plc.

Growth rate 5%

Operating profit % 6%

Tax on operating profits 16%

Fixed asset investment


% of sales growth 8%

Working capital investment


% of sales growth 7%

Cost of capital 10%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales 1370.0 1439.7 1513.0 1590.0 1671.0 1756.0 1845.4 1939.3
Op profits 87.7 92.1 96.8 101.8 106.9 112.4 118.1
Tax -14.0 -14.7 -15.5 -16.3 -17.1 -18.0 -18.9
Fixed assets -5.8 -6.1 -6.4 -6.7 -7.1 -7.4 -7.8
W. Capital -4.7 -4.9 -5.2 -5.4 -5.7 -6.0 -6.3
OFCF 63.2 66.4 69.8 73.3 77.0 81.0 85.1
Discount factor 1.0000 0.9091 0.8264 0.7513 0.6830 0.6209 0.5645 0.5132

Planning horizon 57.4 54.9 52.4 50.1 47.8 45.7 43.7

After planning horizon

Summary
Sum of planning horizon PVs 393.7
PV of perpetuity, discounted 8 years 486.4
Marketable securities 110.0

Corporate value 990.1


Debt 200.0
Shareholder value 790.1
8 9 and after
2038.0 2038.0
124.1 124.1
-19.9 -19.9
-8.2 0.0
-6.6 0.0
89.4 104.3
0.4665 10.0000

41.7

1042.6
Sensitivity or scenario analysis to show the effect of changes in key assum

Assumption Base Case


Growth Rate 0.05
Operating Profit % 0.06
Tax on Operating Profits 0.16
Fixed Asset Investment (% of Sales Growth) 0.08
Working Capital Investment (% of Sales Growth) 0.07
Cost of Capital 0.1
Shareholder Value(In Millions) 790.1
anges in key assumptions

Scenario 1 Scenario 2
0.07 0.03
0.08 0.04
0.18 0.14
0.1 0.06
0.09 0.05
0.12 0.08
906.8 591
Shareholder Value Analysis (SVA) model for Halfords Plc.

Growth rate 7%

Operating profit % 8%

Tax on operating profits 18%

Fixed asset investment


% of sales growth 10%

Working capital investment


% of sales growth 9%

Cost of capital 12%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales 1370.0 1465.9 1568.5 1678.3 1795.8 1921.5 2056.0 2199.9
Op profits 117.3 125.5 134.3 143.7 153.7 164.5 176.0
Tax -21.1 -22.6 -24.2 -25.9 -27.7 -29.6 -31.7
Fixed assets -9.6 -10.3 -11.0 -11.7 -12.6 -13.5 -14.4
W. Capital -8.6 -9.2 -9.9 -10.6 -11.3 -12.1 -13.0
OFCF 77.9 83.4 89.2 95.5 102.2 109.3 117.0
Discount factor 1.0000 0.8929 0.7972 0.7118 0.6355 0.5674 0.5066 0.4523

Planning horizon 69.6 66.5 63.5 60.7 58.0 55.4 52.9

After planning horizon

Summary
Sum of planning horizon PVs 477.1
PV of perpetuity, discounted 8 years 519.7
Marketable securities 110.0

Corporate value 1106.8


Debt 200.0
Shareholder value 906.8
8 9 and after
2353.9 2353.9
188.3 188.3
-33.9 -33.9
-15.4 0.0
-13.9 0.0
125.2 154.4
0.4039 8.3333

50.5

1286.8
Shareholder Value Analysis (SVA) model for Halfords Plc.

Growth rate 3%

Operating profit % 4%

Tax on operating profits 14%

Fixed asset investment


% of sales growth 6%

Working capital investment


% of sales growth 5%

Cost of capital 8%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales 1370.0 1411.1 1453.4 1497.0 1541.9 1588.2 1635.9 1684.9
Op profits 56.4 58.1 59.9 61.7 63.5 65.4 67.4
Tax -7.9 -8.1 -8.4 -8.6 -8.9 -9.2 -9.4
Fixed assets -2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9
W. Capital -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5
OFCF 44.0 45.3 46.7 48.1 49.5 51.0 52.6
Discount factor 1.0000 0.9259 0.8573 0.7938 0.7350 0.6806 0.6302 0.5835

Planning horizon 40.8 38.9 37.1 35.4 33.7 32.2 30.7

After planning horizon

Summary
Sum of planning horizon PVs 277.9
PV of perpetuity, discounted 8 years 403.2
Marketable securities 110.0

Corporate value 791.0


Debt 200.0
Shareholder value 591.0
8 9 and after
1735.5 1735.5
69.4 69.4
-9.7 -9.7
-3.0 0.0
-2.5 0.0
54.1 59.7
0.5403 12.5000

29.3

746.3

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