Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Location of Center (10:00 AM)
The center of the Tropical Depression was estimated
based on all available data at 1,540 km East of
Southeastern Mindanao (7.2°N, 139.6°E) (OUTSIDE
PAR)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of
1004 hPa
Present Movement

Eastward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 200 km from the
center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
dir. and
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW
Location Cat. speed
(°N) (°E) (km/h) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
1,585 km East of Southeastern Mindanao SSW
8:00 PM 6.8 140.0 55 TD
(OUTSIDE PAR) Slowly
13 November 2023
24-Hour Forecast
1,530 km East of Southeastern Mindanao WSW
8:00 AM 6.6 139.5 65 TS
(OUTSIDE PAR) Slowly
14 November 2023
36-Hour Forecast
1,430 km East of Southeastern Mindanao
8:00 PM 6.8 138.6 75 TS WNW 10
(OUTSIDE PAR)
14 November 2023
48-Hour Forecast
1,310 km East of Southeastern Mindanao
8:00 AM 7.3 137.5 85 TS WNW 10
(OUTSIDE PAR)
15 November 2023
60-Hour Forecast
1,055 km East of Northeastern Mindanao
8:00 PM 7.9 135.9 85 TS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
15 November 2023
72-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 8.2 133.7 810 km East of Northeastern Mindanao 95 STS W 20
16 November 2023
96-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 9.7 129.4 430 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte 110 STS WNW 20
17 November 2023
120-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 11.5 125.3 In the vicinity of Pinanag-an, Eastern Samar 120 TY WNW 20
18 November 2023

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Prepared by: JEMB Checked by: CFP

WFFC, BIR Road, Diliman, Quezon City (02) 8284-0800 ext. 805 bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-05 Rev. 0 / 15-08-2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 1
Tropical Depression
Issued at 11:00 AM, 13 November 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next advisory at 11:00 PM today

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD

 The Tropical Depression is forecast to track south southwestward in the next 12 hours, then turn west southwestward
before turning west northwestward while gradually accelarating as it approaches the eastern boundary of the
Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It will then turn further west northwestward or westward on Thursday (16
November) on a steady pace towards the waters of Eastern Visayas.

 On the track forecast, the Tropical Depression may enter the PAR region on late Wednesday (15 November) or
Thursday (16 November) and the domestic name “KABAYAN” will be assigned once inside the PAR region.

 This tropical cyclone may intensify over the TCA region and reach Typhoon category with peak intensity of 120 km/h
on Saturday. The possibility of further intensification prior to its close approach to Eastern Visayas is not ruled out.

 Current track and intensity forecast shows that there is a high likelihood that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals will be
hoisted over Eastern portions of Visayas and Mindanao. The passage of this tropical cyclone over Eastern Visayas
may bring heavy rainfall over several provinces in Visayas, Mindanao, and Bicol Region beginning Friday (17
November).

 Furthermore, the tropical cyclone may also bring rough to very rough seas over the eastern seaboards of Southern
Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning Thursday (16 November). Such condition may be risky for those using
small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to continue monitoring for updates.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to
continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless an intermediate advisory or initial tropical cyclone bulletin is released, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued
at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

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Prepared by: JEMB Checked by: CFP

WFFC, BIR Road, Diliman, Quezon City (02) 8284-0800 ext. 805 bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph