SOC 207: INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION ANALYSIS

Course Outline
1. What is Population/Population Study
2. Limits of Population Studies
3. Sources of Population Statistics
a) Population Census
b) Sample Survey
c) Vital Registration
d) Population Register
4. Uses of Population Statistics
5. World Population Growth
6. Theories of Population
7. Components of Population
a) Fertility
b) Mortality
c) Migration
8. Pattern of Population Composition

Recommended Texts:
i. R.B. Mandal and H. Prasad (1989) Introductory Methods in Population
Analysis. Concept Publishing Company. Books.google.com.ng
ii. S. Ziehi (2002) Population Studies: Introduction to Sociology. OUP, South
Africa
iii. Dudley L. Poston and Leon F. Bouvier (2010) Population and Society: An
Introduction to Demography. Cambridge University Press.
iv. Edith Gray and Zhongwei Zhao (Eds) (2012) Population Studies. Routledge.
v. Anson Jon, Bartl Walter and Kulczycki Andrze (Eds) (2019) Studies in the
Sociology of Population: International Perspective. Springer
vi. George F. Mair (2021) Studies in Population. Princeton University Press

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 WHAT IS POPULATION/POPULATION STUDY
Everyone belongs to a population and population changes affect everyone in one
way or the other. What is population? Population can be defined and used in
several ways depending on under what discipline the definition is being
considered. For instance, to a biologist, population is “a collection of plants and
or animals in a given environment”. This in a way is referring to plants/animal
population. A sociologist or any social scientist, on the other hand, would think of
population in terms of the total number of people in a community or country.
Having defined population, what then is the study/analysis of population (i.e.
populati on study). This is the broader aspect of demography. Demography has its
origin from 2 Greek words – DEMOS & GRAPHIE. Demos means people while
Graphie means study. Thus, demography is the study of people (i.e. the scientific
study of human population). It is the description, analysis and understanding of
population. It is concerned with the mathematical and statistical description of
human population. Its scope thus embraces
i. size (no of persons in the population),
ii. distribution (the arrangement of the population in space at a given time);
iii. the structure (the distribution according to age, sex, occupation etc.); nd
iv. population change over time (the growth or decline of population).
However, any meaningful understanding and interpretation of causes and effect of
population change must extend beyond formal or mathematical and statistical
measurement (i.e. demography) of the components of change to drawing on the
theoretical framework of other disciplines. On this note, the definition should be
extended to cover the social, economic, historical and political characteristics of
the population and related demographic processes. An example is how changes in
income or level of education can affect the level of mortality among a population.
This broader aspect of demography is “POPULATION STUDIES”.
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 LIMITS OF POPULATION STUDIES
For the fact that Population Studies is broad, the conception of its limit/content
depends on the perception and orientation from which they are developed. This is
particularly the case because population study is of concern to many specialists.
And the interest would be on just some aspects which are of great relevance to
them. For instance, a public health worker is likely to think of population studies
primarily in terms of its contribution to the measurement of morbidity, mortality
and the circumstances determining them.
The economist on the other hand, is more likely to look at population studies, in
relation to (1) supply of labour, as a factor in economic development or (2) as a
component of consumers’ demands whereas as a sociologist, one would be more
interested in the effect of demographic processes (such as fertility, mortality and
migration) on family size and structure. A political scientist might be interested in
the components of population and its implications for voting in an election. For
instance, the young ones are much more likely to vote for radical parties in an
election. Political scientist could also be interested in the effects of war on
population growth. This, of course demands some interest because there is a
particular age cohort, (15 – 35) that takes part in a war. Since this might cause a
reduction in the number of able people, it has implications for the quality of a
population.

SOURCES OF POPULATION STATISTICS

Population statistics are derived mainly from (1) Traditional and (2) Non-
traditional sources. Traditional Sources are:
i. periodic enumerations (Censuses);
ii. sample surveys (inquiries);
iii. vital registration systems and;
iv. population registers.
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Although the four sources listed above are traditional sources, only the first three
are common to most countries. Other than the above, population information could
also be derived from non-traditional sources such as parish registers, baptismal
records, voters’ register, and other administrative data.
POPULATION CENSUS
This is the major source of population statistics in many countries. Census is often
erroneously understood as headcount. It is indeed more than just head count. It can
thus be defined as the “total process of collecting, compiling and publishing
demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time(s) to all
persons in a defined territory”. The census of a country is a satisfactory method
of recording the size, distribution and other characteristics of a population at fixed
intervals. The pre-requisites or requirements for a good census are:
i. adequate advance planning;
ii. provision of necessary resources.
iii. painstaking control and the training of the enumerators;
iv. universality and periodicity of conduct. Universality is in the sense that it
must be conducted in all parts of a territory or country while periodicity on
the other hand means that certain periods during which a census is to be
taken must be well defined. For the fact that census taking is too expensive
an operation, it is not often carried out at short intervals. Rather, censuses
are conducted decennially or quinquineally ( i.e. in 5 or 10 year intervals).
Approaches to Census Taking
Although, an approach to census taking differs from place to place. It can either be
through the (1) de facto or (2) de jure approach. The de facto approach allows for
the recording of each individual at the place where found during a census. This is
often adopted in Britain and Nigeria. The de jure approach, adopted in the U.S.A.
for instance, emphasizes the recording/counting of people according to their usual
place of residence.
It should be noted, however, that neither of the two approaches is superior. The
success and the adoption of each of the method depend on the circumstances of
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individual country. For instance, in Brazil, both approaches have been adopted. In
Nigeria, population mobility, multiple residences and homelessness of others make
the de jure approach less satisfactory than the de facto approach. Therefore,
although informally, both approaches had been adopted in Nigerian censuses
Origin of Censuses: - Although enumerations of population were carried out in
ancient times (e.g. biblical times), earliest modern censuses of countries took place
in the Scandinavian countries in the eighteen century. The first census of Sweden
was in 1749, Norway, 1760, and Denmark, 1769. The first universal census of the
United States of America was taken in 1790.
By the turn of nineteenth century, many nationwide censuses had been conducted.
For instance, in England it was in 1801, 1829 in Belgium, 1835 in France, 1873 in
Japan, 1881 in India, and 1897 in both Egypt and Russia. In Nigeria, the first
population census was conducted in Lagos colony in 1866. There was also an
estimate or the population of Northern Nigeria by sex in 1911. In the South, the
1911 census was based partly on estimates and partly on enumerations. Since both
the 1866 and 1911 enumerations were neither complete nor universal, they cannot
really be referred to as censuses. Therefore, census-taking could not be said to have
started earlier than 1952/53 in Nigeria. There were subsequent ones in 1962/63,
1973, 1991 and 2006.
Limitations of Censuses
Despite the fact that the accuracy of census information vary according to time,
and place all over the world, some generalizations are still possible about types of
associated errors. The common ones are: errors of coverage (under-enumeration or
over-enumeration) and errors of content.
Coverage errors occur if villages, hamlets, households, persons etc. are not
counted at all; This results to under-count of under enumeration. It is otherwise

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(i.e. duplication, overcount or over-enumeration) if households, persons, etc. are
enumerated more than once. In the developing countries, especially Nigeria,
problems of under or over-count cannot be divorced from organizational, physical,
technical and attitudinal factors.
i. Organizational factor could be associated closely with such problems as that
of lack of experienced specialists to organize the conduct of censuses. There
is also the problem of the actual head counts. The approach adopted during
censuses, which is that persons are to be counted in their homes were in
some cases counted at random at road sides, churches, market places, etc.
thus negating the de jure approach.
ii. While physical factors bother on the accessibility of all parts of the country.
iii. technical is in terms of poor communication and transportation facilities.
This could always hinder the transmission of quick decisions during
headcounts. There is also the problem of demarcation of enumeration areas.
In such cases, enumerators often go outside their enumeration areas. And the
usual result of this is over-enumeration.
iv. The problem of attitudinal factor in over enumeration relates to factors such
as that of politicization, which could lead to the inflation of the number of
people residing in an area. It is also a problem gaining the cooperation of the
members of a population in their response to certain questions contained in
the Census schedule. For example, some might not respond to questions that
are persona and conflicting with their traditional beliefs (e.g. number of
children ever born).
Content error: A content error is said to be made in census if a unit, household or
person is enumerated but there is an error in the recording of its relevant
characteristics, e.g. the age of a person. Classification or content error is more
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common in the censuses of developing countries than in those of the developed
countries.

SAMPLE SURVEY
This is the second most important source of population statistics especially in
Africa. It is often employed to get estimates of demographic characteristics, size,
distribution, mortality, fertility and migration. Sample surveys are either used to
test the accuracy of censuses and registration data or collect vital statistics when
registration exercise is inadequate or non-existent. During censuses, only few
questions are often asked from the entire population while most items are
administered to a certain percentage of the sample of the population later. This
process is often known as post-enumeration survey (PES). It is a form of sample
survey which is specifically designed to check the accuracy of the census
preceding it.
In many developing countries where census statistics are inadequate, sample
surveys are often relied upon to generate useful information which can be used to
estimate demographic parameters. In Nigeria for example, there had been a number
of Demographic Health Surveys primarily conducted for such a purpose (e.g. 1989,
2003, 2013, 2018). Demographic Surveys could be single – round or multi-round.
It is single – round when the population is enumerated only once at the time of the
survey and when retrospective questions on demographic events are asked. In
multi-round inquiries (repeated surveys or follow-up surveys), repeated visits are
made to households in selected sample areas. This is particularly necessary in order
to ascertain what events have occurred during the intervals between the visits.
Limitations of Sample Surveys
Two types of errors are usually associated with sample surveys. These are
sampling errors and non-sampling errors. The former measures the degree to
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which the sample estimate differs from the true population. It shows the extent to
which the sample can be representative of the true population. Sampling errors
occur because a part and not all of the units is covered. This, however, can be
controlled through the choice of suitable sample designs. Non-sampling errors, on
the other hand, may develop as a result of poor organization of a survey e.g. poor
administration of questionnaires.

VITAL REGISTRATION
This is another source of population statistics. It is the continuous registration of
vital events such as births, deaths, marriages, divorces, separations, adoptions at or
near the time of occurrence. In many countries of the world, such registrations are
compulsory and legal. In Nigeria, for example, it was first initiated in 1867 in
Lagos and made compulsory in 1908. In 1979, not only was vital registration
considered much more compulsory nationwide, there was a military decree
backing it up and till date, there had been one intervention or the other to ensure
adequate registration of vital events in Nigeria.
Despite all efforts to achieve a wide coverage of the registration of vital events in
the developing countries, Nigeria for example, vital registration data have
remained scanty. Though it has been made compulsory, it has been fairly effective
within only limited areas. These areas are usually urban localities that can scarcely
be taken as representative of wider areas.
Limitations of Vital Registration
The reliability of vital statistics is highly determined by the accuracy with which
vital events are either registered or reported. Not that alone, the characteristics of
the events which are reported by the informant and recorded by the registrar are
equally important. In this regard, therefore, vital registration is subject to various
kinds of systematic errors. Some of these types of error seem to be almost
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universal while others are limited to specific cultural or administrative condition.
Factors determining the accuracy or otherwise of vital registration data relate to:
i. sex preference e.g. the tendency to report or register infants of one sex more
completely than those of the other.
ii. recording vital events through information obtained from a third party.
Specifically in the case of deaths, information on age at death especially in
cases where the birth certificate is not available is obtained from a third party.
iii. type of event on which information or record is needed. For instance, infants
who died may be under reported or missed in both birth and death registers.
iv. the accessibility of the place of occurrence also influences the completeness of
registration. Births and deaths which take place in rural areas especially when
these areas are remote or inaccessible are least likely to be registered.
v. Whether or not the purpose or responsibility for registration is defined. For
example, if specific and defined benefits such as having to produce birth
certificates for educational purposes or death certificates before the deceased
can be buried legally, individuals could be more motivated to register such
events.

POPULATION REGISTER
This is not as widely employed as the three sources that have been discussed. To
maintain population registers is not only expensive but requires an accurate address
system and a literate population. Thus, it is usually employed by the developed
countries where a regular and up-dated list of people resident in a country with
details of sex, date of birth, marital status among others is maintained.

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 USES OF POPULATION STATISTICS
Population statistics are usually utilized in a variety of ways which include the
following.
i. Basically for many aspects of social and economic research. Since the purpose
of any planning programme is to benefit the entire people of a country, then
there is always the need for an information on the size or numerical strength of
the population. This therefore implies that population data are basically required
for planning and administration. In fact, knowing the size of a population is
particularly fundamental to long-term planning of public programmes. For
instance, the size of the members of a population; and thus the number of
teachers and schools that are to be provided. Since good health is a basic need of
all, the size, the distribution and even the composition of a population provide
relevant information as to the number of hospitals that would meet members
health needs as well as the location of hospitals. Population statistics are also
required or planning housing programmes as well as the manpower needs of a
people.
ii. information contained in population data is usually a good measure of the
levels and trends in the standard of living of a population and even the allocation
of resources. It equally allows for an investigation of the adequacy of the
relationship between demographic and socio-economic processes. For instance,
if the size is too small for maximum utilization of resources it is underutilization.
iii. Population statistics is utilized in the checking of the accuracy of a
population census, through a specific technique known as post enumeration
survey (PES). PES is often conducted after the main census. This is particularly
in the form of sample surveys and a date selected for this kind of survey must be

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 as close as possible to the date of the census. This is to allow for a true
comparison of the two sets of data collected.
iv. Population statistics is equally useful for an estimation of the components of
population change (i.e. fertility, mortality and migration), and a number of other
demographic characteristics of the existing population. (i.e. age, sex, marital
status etc).
v. Population data have also become relevant for the estimation of the
geographical distribution of a population. This is especially necessary to ensure
a balance of population and available resources in both urban and rural
locations. It should be noted for instance, that urban population is often too high
to benefit from available resources, leading to overutilization of the resources
while there is underutilization in the rural areas. The net effect of both
conditions is mass poverty, congestion, unemployment, and underemployment.
Apart from the general uses of population statistics highlighted and discussed, vital
records are specifically required for three main categories of uses. These are
administrative, statistical and medical uses.
Administrative Uses:
i. Birth registration records could be taken as legal and documentary evidence
to certify a person’s age, parentage, birth place and nationality/citizenship.
ii. Birth registration certificates also determine a person’s eligibility for
admission to school, to obtain a passport, to enter certain fields of
employment and even to vote in an election.
iii. Death certificate could be required for civic functions e.g. insurance claims,
entitlement to family allowances, care of children, tax deductions or benefits
among others.

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iv. Death certificates also represent legal evidence relevant to: claims of property,
insurance claimed on behalf of a deceased person, the rights of a surviving
spouse to remarry or to claims for family allowance where the death creates
financial needs.
v. Marriage and divorce records determine the access of women to certain
claims, such as dependency, tax deductions, and allowances, provision and
allocation of specific types of housing. Divorce records also establish the right
of a woman to remarry.
vi. Records of births, deaths and marriage/divorce are essential and invaluable
steps in the maintenance of population registers.
Statistical Uses:
i. Vital statistics provide additional data, independent of census on measures of
fertility and mortality, both for the entire nation and for small geographical
areas.
ii. The data from vital registration provides information on the seasonality of
births and deaths.
iii. The sex ratio at birth (i.e. the ratio of male to female births) are quite useful in
making population projections.
Medical Uses:
Data about deaths and their causes as recorded on death certificates are essential
in the planning of health services for specific areas and the whole country.

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

The world population was estimated at about ½ a billion in 1650 and .7 billion in
1750. By 1850, it had reached 1.2 billion. It was over 2 billion in 1950. In 1980,
the estimated world population was 4.4 billion. In 1990, the world had 5.3 billion
inhabitants. By 2016, it had increased to 7.4billion and this is expected to increase
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to 9 billion by 2050. Obviously from the above, the world population is
accelerating. The spectacular acceleration of the world population dates back to the
middle of the seventeenth century.
Three major factors had been responsible for the rapidly growing world population
figure. These are (i) acquisition of tools by man; (ii) agricultural revolution and
(iii) industrial revolution.
There is the believe that human species dates back at least 3 million years. In
history, these distant ancestors lived as hunters and gatherers. As soon as they
began to acquire tools there was the increased ability to cope with the environment.
Thus, acquisition of tools seemed to have played a major role by increasing the
density of habitation. However, the increase was minimal.
As agriculture was introduced, the hunting, gathering and scavenging ancestors
settled into villages and communities, with domesticated animals and cultivated
fields. Although, the villages/communities that evolved could support more people,
the world population was, however, still increasing at a moderate rate.
Later, there was the industrial revolution which started in the eighteenth century.
This specifically resulted into accelerated population growth because there was rise
in living standards; improvement in public health; while widespread famines and
epidemics diminished in some regions.
That each of the three factors highlighted and discussed could lead to population
explosion is contingent basically on the interaction of the three demographic
variables of births, deaths and migration. Migration may, however, not be
significant in the understanding of the world population change because there is
only one planet being inhabited by man. It only becomes relevant when the change
is considered in relation to individual countries.

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The world population grew rapidly especially during industrial revolution not
because birth increased but because death rates began to fall. The decline in death
rates was not unconnected with the introduction of technologies and increasing
industrialization which triggered improvement in public health and living
standards. With improved technology, essential goods (e.g. food among others)
could be distributed widely, quickly and at relatively cheap rate. Not that alone,
man was able to fight the hostile environment, predatory animals, starvation,
disease and malnutrition.
Specifically, credit for the improved mortality condition was given to medicine.
However, scientific medicine and sanitation had very little impact before late
nineteenth century. In the specific case of the developed world, the gradual
adoption of improved agricultural and industrial techniques did the magic. But, in
much of the developing countries, the decline in mortality which began in the late
nineteenth century was as a result of the importation of western technology,
particularly that of medicine.
Considering the scenario of the world population situation, therefore, industrial
revolution played an important role in mortality reduction. Initially, high fertility
was required to counter-balance the prevailing high mortality rates in many parts
of the world. But at the time when measures to reduce mortality were widely
accepted, resentments were shown to measures that would aid decrease in fertility.
In fact, to a large extent, religious and secular authorities were consistently
pronatalists. The traditional institutions and other elements of the social system
were usually ordered to maximize the populace. Value systems encouraged people
to have as many children as possible and to keep them alive as long as possible.
Indeed, the biblical blessing – multiply and replenish the earth - became highly
valued; methods that were aimed at saving people from diseases and starvation
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were quickly adopted because they conform to the existing beliefs. Those that were
meant to decrease birth rates were generally opposed because they contravened the
prevailing value system. The inevitable effect of all these social relationships is the
acceleration of the world population.

THEORIES OF POPULATION
There are many theories of population growth. This is partly as a result of
differences in the experiences and attitudes of the theorists. While some favour
population growth, some have negative attitudes to it. In the seventeenth century,
the prevailing theory of population was mercantilism which considered population
growth as essential to raising public revenue. Some of the views expressed by this
group could be seen in the works of Botero (1533 - 1617). According to him, the
strength of any states is its population.
During the second half of the eighteenth century, more and more writers on
economic and social issues rejected the mercantilist doctrine. It was at this period
that the major theory of population was propounded by Thomas Malthus (1798).
Malthusian Theory
The theory of Malthus can be broken down into three major parts. These are
i. Causes of population growth
ii. Consequences of population growth
iii. Avoiding the consequences of population growth.
As for the cause of population growth, Malthus held the view that human beings
are naturally indolent. They are forced get married and have children. Thus, the
need to fend and support the members of the family (wives and children), often
stimulate man into activity/working. Given that work is good, then marriages and
childbearing is equally good. By implication, this would result to increase in both

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the means of subsistence and population. Population, however, often grows faster
than the means of subsistence. While population growth follows a geometric
progression (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32….), agricultural production, in practice, cannot
increase faster than in the arithmetical progression (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ….).
The relationship between food production and means of subsistence, as argued by
Malthus, would result to undesirable consequences/checks which tend to balance
the two. These are identified as (i) positive and (ii) preventive checks. Positive
checks are meant to increase deaths while preventive checks are to reduce birth
rates. The former includes, poverty, diseases, epidemics, famine and war while the
latter centers on abstinences, infanticide, contraception and abortion.
Whether positive or preventive, Malthus considered them unacceptable because
they can be regarded as “misery/ vices”. His only acceptable means of preventing a
birth and the possible consequences was moral restraint. This requires delaying
marriages until one becomes able to support a viable family. He considered moral
restraint as very important because he is of the view that if people were allowed to
prevent births by what he called “improper means” (e.g. infanticide, contraception
and abortion), they would be wasting their energies on economically unproductive
activities.
The Weaknesses of Malthus Theory
i. It places too much emphasis on the limitation of the supply of land. This,
however, has been improved upon by the agricultural revolution of the
nineteenth century in form of livestock feed, chemical, fertilizer, crop
rotation among others.
ii. Malthus never realized that there could be better means of transportation and
superior distribution techniques. This had specifically contributed to getting

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 goods and services out of places of surplus to those of scarcity thus
improving peoples’ standard of living.
iii. He under–estimated man’s potential for technological innovations and
inventions (e.g. biotechnology, genetically modified foods, fertilizer, etc.)
iv. Finally, Malthus’ religious belief prevented him from accepting the
possibility of widespread use of contraceptives.
Impacts of Malthus
i. Despite the weaknesses of the Malthusian theory, his writings, up till the
present day, have sensitized policy makers, scholars, researchers, and
planners to the need for adequate information about trends in population
growth and its relationship to socio–economic conditions. As such, there has
been progress in the formulation and execution of population control
programmes, techniques of demographic analysis, and development of vital
statistics and even censuses.
ii. He influenced writings in many disciplines. For instance, in economics,
David Ricardo employed his ideas in the development of the “Iron Law of
Wages” as part of the “Theory of Rent and Distribution of Wealth”. In
biology, Charles Darwin acknowledged his gratitude to Malthus for the
phrase “Survival of the Fittest” or “Struggle for Survival”.

Demographic Transition Theory (DTT)

The theory of demographic transition stems out of actual experience. It was
developed as a result of the efforts towards finding a completely modern theory
capable of explaining history of western population. Apart from this, it is also
relevant in the discussion of the relationship between population growth and

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 economic development. Hence, the possibility of its application to other population
has been an issue for consideration in recent times.
The origin of the theory has usually been credited to Thompson who, in 1929,
especially in his bid to generalize the demographic experience of Europe into
theoretical framework which could apply to other areas, grouped the nations of the
world into three (3) according to their level of birth and death rates. These groups
are of (i) High Growth Potential; (ii) Transitional Stage and; (iii) Incepient stage.
Countries belonging to first group (High Growth Potential) are characterized by
high fertility, low mortality and rapid population growth while the transitional
stage has declining birth and death rates (the rate of decline in birth is slower than
that of death), the nations at the incepient stage experience a slightly higher death
rate than birth rate. Hence, their population tends toward declining.
In a similar vein, Blacker, in 1947, identified 5 stages of demographic transition.
The summary of those stages are as stated in the following Table.

PHASE BIRTH DEATH RATE GROWTH

RATE RATE
1. High Stationary High High Very slow or zero
2. Early Expanding High Falling slowly Slow
3. Late Expanding Falling Falling faster Rapid
4. Low Stationery Low Low Zero or low
Declining Very low Low but higher than birth Negative
rate

The work of Notestein, published in 1953 was very influential in the development
of DTT. Even though he did not divide it into phases, he argued that the growth of
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the world population since 1930 was as a result of the decline in mortality. This
decline was particularly brought about by peace and order in the society. The
Agricultural Revolution, which increased the quantity and quality of food supply
equally made significant contributions. He further maintained that when and while
mortality was declining, fertility did not decline at first and so, population growth
accelerated. This trend, as conceived by Notestein, was a result of its reinforcement
by the social forces underlining reproductive behaviour. These social forces
include moral codes, religious doctrines, laws, community customs, marriage
habits and family organization. They are all focused towards maintaining high
fertility. For any remarkable decline to be achieved in respect of the level of
fertility, therefore, the social forces must be eroded.
The transition theory gained wide acceptance in the last few decades. Indeed, it
would scarcely be an exaggeration to call it the modern population theory. Despite
this, however, it has not been able to settle all questions of population growth. So a
number of writings have emphasized its limitations as a theory.
i. It has been argued that since the transition theory is linked to the experience
of western countries, whose historical demographical trends were by
themselves far from uniform, it is unlikely that it could provide any useful
suggestion about the factors which may determine population growth in
other countries.
ii. A more fundamental criticism of the transition theory is that, as a theory, it
is unsatisfactory. This is because it is more of a description of historical
events that have occurred in the developed countries with some regularity
than a theory. It has only suggested certain major complexes of factors
which presumably influence the components of population growth. Thus, it
raises serious questions as to its explanatory and predictive value.
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For these criticisms, some modifications/reformulations of DTT had been
developed. In this bid, scholars/critiques had suggested that emphasis/focus must
shift from the macro (societal) level to the micro (individual) level of experience
and response. In other words, attention should be on how people actually respond
to the social and economic changes taking place around them. Hence, the
prominent modifications of the DTT into the individual level of perspective are
grouped under an umbrella of RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY (RAT).
The idea of RAT emanated from the assumption that human behavior often results
from individuals making calculated cost-benefit analyses about how to act and
what to do. The theories of population (though modifications of the DTT) which
can be grouped as RAT are:
i. Wealth Flow Theory;
ii. Theory of Demographic Change and Response;
iii. Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis/Theory of Relative Change/New
Household Economics
Wealth Flow Theory
WFT was developed by Caldwell (1976) towards explaining the demographic
experience of the developing countries. He stresses the complexity of social
change and westernization rather than economic determinism per se. The theory
further attempts to distinguish between societies where there is no economic gain
derivable, by individuals, from reducing fertility and societies where there is
always some economic gain in making such a decision. That is, societies where
children are seen as investment and those where children are burdens. The
transitional societies fall between these two.
Specifically, fertility decline in the developing world would not be determined by
the spread of industrialization or economic development. Rather, it is likely to
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precede industrialization and to cause it than to accompany it. Actually, fertility
decline in the developing countries is almost a social phenomenon in its entirety, as
children and child bearing constitute a sort of investment in these societies. There
is therefore no ceiling on the number of children to have in the societies because of
the associated economic benefits. With modernization and social change, large
and extended family units are broken into smaller/nuclear units. Consequently, it
can be assumed that the cost of children and child bearing would increase for
parents and the support received from children would begin to decline. As the
economic value of children declines and parents no longer derive any economic
advantage from children, economic rationality would dictate to parents whether or
not to have none or few children.

Theory of Demographic Change and Response

This theory is an idea of Kingsley Davis (1963). The concern in this theory is with
the central issue of DTT, which borders on the question, “how and under what
condition can mortality decline lead to fertility decline” To answer the question,
Davis raised the question, “what happens to individuals when mortality declines?.
The answer to this, in the opinion of Davis, is that more children would survive
through adulthood, thereby, putting greater pressure on family resources. In
response to this crisis, people would reorganize their lives to relieve the pressure
and this response would be generally be in terms of personal goals. More
importantly, it is determined by the means available. At first, the response is often
non-demographic e.g. working harder and for longer hours. When this does not
provide or guarantee the expected means increasing available resources, then a
demographic response such as migrations might be considered. However, the
response of the second generation (i.e. the children of persons directly confronted

21
with pressure on available resources) would be avoidance of large families which
caused problems for their parent. This is about the situation these days when the
present generation is cutting down their family sizes (e.g having just two or three
children) as against our parents or grandparents having as large as ten children or
even more.

Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis/Theory of Relative Income/New Household

Economics
Another modification to the Demographic Transition Theory has been advocated
by economists in recent years. This modification has especially given rise to the
Theory of Relative Income which was proposed by Richard Easterlin (1968). It is
sometimes known as “new household economics”. It has not only extended the
work of Davis, but attempts to provide a better theoretical explanation of the
observed falling birth rate associated with the incepient stage of the transition
theory. The theory is based on the belief that birth responds not to absolute level of
economic development but to levels that are relative to those which one is
accustomed.
To Easterlin, therefore, the standard of living to which one is accustomed in late
childhood is the base from which one evaluates the chances as an adult. For
instance, if income at adulthood improves relative to one’s late childhood level,
there is the likelihood of early marriage and childbearing by the individual
concerned. If the situation at adulthood is worse, both would be postponed.
That an individual is in a relatively advantageous or disadvantageous position as an
adult depends on the relationship between what Easterlin referred to as business
cycle and the demographic responses to those cycles. A rise in business means
prosperity and this makes it easier for people to marry. This again depends on the

22
number and proportion of people who are of age e.g. if young people are relatively
scarce and the business cycle is good, there would be an increasing demand for
them, and this would be reflected in high wages. If these levels of income are
above that to which they are accustomed at childhood, it becomes easier for the
employed youths to get married and start a family. The opposite obtains if young
people are relatively abundant in supply. With good business cycle, there would be
high competition for jobs. This would make it difficult for people to maintain their
accustomed level of living. In short, Easterlin, in his modifications, emphasizes the
linkage between demographic and economic change.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION
The three (3) major components of population. These are fertility, mortality and
migration.
FERTILITY
This is the frequency of childbearing among the population. It is the reproduction
performance of males, females or couples in a given population. Fertility rate,
therefore, means the relative frequency with which births actually occurs within a
given population. More often than not, FECUNDITY and FECUNDABILITY
have been used carelessly and synonymously in place of fertility. It should be
noted, however, that the three are not the same. While FECUNDITY refers to the
physiological capability or capacity to bear children, FECUNDABILITY is a
measure of the probability that a woman will conceive within a menstrual cycle in
the absence of contraceptives.
A number of conventional rates are employed in the measurement of childbearing
within a population. These are usually expressed as a ratio or rate of the number of

23
births that occurs in a population during a specified period, (usually a year), to the
size of the population. A number of these measures are as discussed below:
Crude Birth Rate (CBR): is the number of live births that occur during a
calendar year per 1,000 population. This is symbolically defined as:
CBR = B X 1,000
P 1
Where B is the number of live births that occur during a calendar year; P is the
mid-year population. If
Example: B = 22,973,370 and P = 656,382,000,
CBR = 22,973,370 X 1,000
656,382,000 1
= 35‰ (i.e. 35 per thousand)

CBR, although measures the contribution of current fertility to overall population

growth, it is not a very good index for comparing levels of fertility. It is, for
instance, affected by the composition of the population with respect to age, sex
and marital status. Usually it portrays a population with high concentration of
women in reproductive ages as having higher CBR than other population that may
have the same rate of childbearing per woman. Its main advantages are its
simplicity in calculation and ease with which it can be explained to a layman.
General Fertility Rate (GFR): is an improvement on CBR. It is the yearly
number of live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age (usually, 15 – 44 years
or 15 – 49 years). It is, therefore, estimated as follows:
GFR = B X 1,000
49/44
W15 1
B = the total no of births in a year
49/44
W15 = total mid-year population of women in the childbearing age range
(15 – 44 or 15 – 49 years).

24
Suppose for example, that:
B = 423, 958 and 49/44W15 = 5,378, 256
GFR = 423, 958 X 1,000
5,378, 256 1
= 78.8‰

The essential difference between GFR and CBR is that the denominator for CBR
is the total population while that of GFR is the population of potential mothers
within the female population. As such, GFR is more refined than CBR. A further
refinement could still be introduced in the measurement of GFR. This is done by
restricting the denominator to married women only. Although the GFR is easy to
compute and requires no additional information about births, it has some
limitations, which are:
i. the denominator only considers the women exposed to the risk of
childbearing, it does not take into account the distribution of women within
the reproductive age group (15-44/15-49). The incidence of birth varies
considerably within this group.
ii. Every woman in the reproductive age group, whether married or unmarried
are included in the denominator.
Despite the limitations, the GFR indicates, in part, the extent to which the rate of
births in a territory or nation is attributable to the age composition of its
population. It is useful in the comparison of populations with quite dissimilar age
compositions. It is equally useful in studies and comparison of small human
groups or small geographical units.

Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): measures the frequency of childbearing as it

varies from one age another within the reproductive age group. It is the annual no

25
of live births per 1,000 women in each of the seven reproductive age groups (15 –
19, 20 – 24; 25 – 29;…45 – 49). ASFR is a valuable measure of the current
childbearing performance of women. It is not directly influenced by the age or sex
composition of the whole population. Furthermore, a set of given ASFR forms the
starting point from which most other important fertility measures such as TFR and
GRR can be derived.
ASFR can be expressed symbolically as follows:
n n
Fx = Bx X 1,000
n
Wx 1
n
Fx = ASFR of women aged x to x+n years
n
Wx = Number of women aged x to x+n years at mid-year.
n
Bx = Number of births to women aged x to x+n years during the calendar year.
Adopting the symbols, ASFR can be estimated as presented in the following
example.

26
 Age group No of Births in the last ASFR (‰) =
n
women 12months(nBx) Bx X 1,000
n
(nWx ) Wx 1

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (3) ÷ (2) x 1,000/1

15 – 19 410,352 56,403 137.5
20 – 24 378,163 97,166 256.9
25 – 29 377,011 93,415 247.8
30 – 34 296,799 57,694 194.4
35 – 39 235,697 34,478 146.3
40 – 44 190,328 13,078 68.7
45 – 49 148,534 4,546 30.6
Total 2,036,884 356,780 1,082.2

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): is the number of children that a woman would have
from age 15 to 49 is she were to bear children at the prevailing age specific fertility
rates. In other words, it is the average number of children that a woman will have if
she experiences a given set of ASFR throughout her life time. Estimates of TFRs
are usually derived from actual or assumed ASFRS. This is obtained by summing
over all the ASFRS for each year of the childbearing span and multiply by age
interval (n) which is usually “5”. It can be represented as:
TFR = Total ASFR (‰) x 5
From the illustration on ASFR, Total ASFR (‰) = 1,082.2
Therefore TFR = 1,082.2 x 5 = 5,411.0
TFR = 5,411.0
The Advantages of TFR are:
i. It is a useful summary measure of ASFRs.

27
 ii. It is a good index to measure fertility changes since it is independent of the
age and sex distribution of a population.
iii. TFR is more useful than the GFR for analyzing fertility trends
iv. It provides an estimate of the number of births that 1,000 women would have
if they experienced a given set of ASFRs throughout the reproductive age
span. For example, if the rate for a year, say 2020 is 5.4, it means that if an
hypothetical group of 1,000 women were to have the same birth rates at each
single year of age that were observed among the childbearing population for
that year, 2020, they would have a total of 5,400 children at the end of the
reproductive period, assuming that all survive to that age.
v. It can be compared with the projected childbearing of actual groups of women
as they proceed through the reproductive period of life.
Limitations
i. It is imperfect measure of real situation because it covers the fertility behaviour of
all women in the childbearing ages in a particular year without considerations for
the singles, divorces and the widowed. For certain reasons, parents might decide
to postpone some births but eventually have the same number of children they
would have had otherwise. This process would reflect in the TFR.
Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR or R1): This is the average number of daughters a
woman would have if she experiences a given set of ASFRs throughout the
reproductive ages. It makes no allowance for mortality over this period. It is often
restricted to female births only. Otherwise, GRR is essentially the same as TFR.
Usually, it yields values that are about half of TFR. Given the sex ratio at birth, the
exact value of GRR can be estimated as follows:
GRR = TFR
1 + SR

28
SR = Sex ratio at birth i.e. number of male births per 100female births in a
population.
Advantages
i. It is a good index for measuring changes in future fertility potential.
ii. It is often interpreted as showing the extent to which generation of daughters
would replace the preceding generation of females if fertility remains constant.

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR or RO): is the average number of daughters that a
woman will bear if she experiences a given set of ASFRs throughout the
reproductive ages with allowance made for mortality of women over their
reproductive years. In effect, the NRR is always lower than GRR. The NRR is
believed to measure the extent to which women reproduce themselves. Despite that
measures of NRR appears more reliable, it has some limitations.
i. It assumes the continuation of reproductive situation in a single year. This
assumption, however, does not hold in practice because of changing social and
economic conditions as well as proportions marrying.
ii. In addition, it is based only on female reproduction without taking into
consideration the ratio and differences in the ages of parents.

Child Woman Ratio (CWR): This is the number of children per 1,000 women of
child-bearing age. Various ages of children have been used, but usually the
numerator refers to children age 0 – 4, 5-9, or 0-9 while the denominator refers to
women aged 15-49, 20-54 or 15-54. CWR is therefore defined symbolically as:
CWR = 4P0 x 1,000 or 9
P5 x 1,000 or 9
P0 x 1,000
49 54 54
W15 1 W20 1 W15 1

29
Advantages
i. Child Woman Ratio has some similarity with General Fertility Rate. The
denominators are comparable particularly when the ratio of children aged 0-4 to
women aged 15-49 is adopted in its estimation.
ii. It is a useful index where vital registration data are lacking, since it especially
reflects fertility performance during the 5 years preceding the census.
iii. It is useful means of obtaining fertility statistics for small areas.
iv. It does not require a special question in the census.
Limitations
i. The broad age range used for women does not take into account the age
distribution within this age range and fertility is closely related to ages of
women.
ii. It does not make allowance for under enumeration, over enumeration and age
misstatement of children and women.
iii. It makes no allowance for mortality of women and children.

Children Ever Born (CEB): This is the mean number of children ever born to a
group of women of a specified age. This measure requires only census or survey
data on the total number of children ever born by age of women as well as the
distribution of women within a population.

MORTALITY
This often means death. It is an inevitable demographic event. Mortality can be
measured in several ways such as:
Crude Death Rate (CDR): which is defined as the number of deaths per 1,000
people. Symbolically it can be shown as:

30
 CDR = D x K
P
D = number of deaths (in a year) within a population ; P = Mid-year population; K
= is a constant, usually 1,000.

If for example in a year, there are 535,900 deaths in a territory and mid-year
population is 53,106,000, the estimated CDR = 535,900 x 1000 = 10.1‰
53,106,000 1
Advantages and disadvantages:
i. It is easy to estimate. Indeed, it requires only a minimum amount of data.
ii. It is a key determinant of population growth but not a very good index for
comparing mortality levels because it can be misleading. This is because
influences of the age structure often override the impact of the levels of
mortality. e.g. A population with an old age structure is likely to have a higher
CDR than a population with a young age structure.
Age Specific Mortality (Death) Rate (ASDR): the ASDR contribute enormously
to the study of mortality especially because diversities in death rates are related to
age. The ASDR is an attempt to at least reduce the effect of these differences. It
can be defined as the number of deaths per year per 1,000 population of a given
age group by sex. The conventional age groups are usually 1-4, 5-9, 10-14
…………75 and above.
The major advantage of ASDR is that it forms a good basis for making
comparisons about mortality levels because they not affected by the age and sex
composition of the population.
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): measures mortality among infants usually
between 0-1year of age per 1,000 live births in a population in a given year. This
can be expressed as:
IMR = ND(0 – 1) x 1000
TLB 1
31
 ND(0 – 1) = number of deaths among 0 – 1 year of age
TLB = Total live births in a given year.
K = constant, usually 1,000.

Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR): is the number of deaths among infants under 4
weeks (28days) divided by total live births in a population. Deaths under 1 month
can also be used as the numerator.
NMR = ND (≤4 weeks or 28 days) x 1000
TLB 1
Postnatal Mortality Rate (PMR): is the number of deaths among infants aged
4weeks to less than a year divided by total live birth multiplied by 1, 000.
PMR = ND (4weeks to 1 year) x 1000
TLB 1
***** NMR + PMR = IMR.

Perinatal Mortality Rate: provides the measurement of deaths during the

neonatal period and feotal deaths.
PeMR = late foetal deaths + ND (4WKS) x 1,000
TLB 1
Maternal Mortality Rates: is the number of women that die as a result of child
bearing in a given year per 100, 000 live births.
ND(49W15) x 1,000
TLB 1

Life Expectancy (ex): is expectation of life at birth. It is defined as the average

number of years a new born infant can be expected to live if he/she is subjected at
different stages of his/her life to the prevailing ASDR in a population. It is also
called the mean length of life.

32
MIGRATION
This is the movement of people across a specified boundary. Such movement could
be temporary, semi-permanent or permanent change of location. It could also be
across a national boundary. This is international migration. If it is within a country
but from one geographical location to another, it is internal migration and
international if across a national boundary. Internal migration is usually of various
forms which include, rural-rural; rural-urban; urban-urban and urban-rural.
International migration is described by immigration and emigration.
Population movement, either internal or international can be in form of
unconscious drifts, forced movements or voluntary movements. The type of
movement practiced by the elderly man in his search for food (wandering) is an
example of unconscious movement. Forced movements could be for religious,
political or economic needs e.g. the movement of internally displaced persons (due
to insurgency) across Nigeria. The movement of the Jews as recorded in the Bible
was purely religious while movement during Nigerian civil war was political. The
alien quit order made in Nigeria in 1983 could be regarded as economic. Voluntary
movements are kinds of movements based on the careful consideration of the
present physical, economic, political and social environment of migrants,
compared to his proposed point of destination.
Simple migration measures are as follows:
i. In-migration Rate = I
P
ii. Out-migration Rate = O
P
iii. Gross Migration Rate = I + O
P
iv. Net Migration Rate = I - O
P
I = number of in-migrants during a specified time to a given area.
33
 O = number of out-migrants during a specified time from a given area.
P = population of the given area at either the beginning, end or mid-point of
the migration interval.

PATTERN OF POPULATION COMPOSITION

The composition or structure of any population refers to that aspect of the
population that can be measured with some degree of precision. This is the
quantitative aspect of a population. It includes age, sex, marital status among
others. Data on these variables are usually obtained from censuses.
Demographers are interested in the composition of population as it varies
territorially between countries; regions; urban and rural areas; communities and
ethnic groups. Aside from the total size, the most important demographic
characteristics of population is its age and sex structure.
Age/Sex Composition: This is the proportion of the people at each age by sex.
Despite that age is most commonly investigated in enumerations, it is
overwhelmed by mis-statements either of over-enumeration or under-enumeration.
Fortunately, sex as a characteristic is most likely to be declared accurately at
census enumerations.
Whether mis-reported or not, the age-sex structure determines the needs of the
population and the potential for the future growth of a total population as well as of
specific age groups. For these reasons, the age structure of a population
particularly has significant applications for government policy. For instance, while
a population with a large proportion of young ones needs a sufficient number of
schools and enough jobs to accommodate them later, counties with large
proportion of older people must develop retirement systems and medical facilities
to serve them. Thus, as a population “ages”, its needs change from child care and
schools to jobs, housing and medical care.
34
Human population is usually divided into age groups quinquennially, decennially
or into just 3 broad age groups which are:
Infants and Adolescents (0 - 14 or 0 - 19): This group is largely non-reproductive
and highly non-productive. They are generally referred to as dependants. Most
developing countries have a large proportion of their population in this group. In
most developed countries, however, there is evidence of a general decline of the
proportion in this age group. This is as a result of the general decline in their levels
of fertility.
Adults (15-59; 15-64; 19-59; or 19-64 years): This age range depends partly on
the age composition of a population. It is the most productive and reproductive
group within a population. Persons in this age group also support the bulk of the
members of the two other groups (children and aged). They are also the most
mobile population. In advanced countries, due to low fertility and mortality, there
has been very little increase in the proportion of adults. The adult age-group is
sometimes divided, for further analysis, into young adults (15-34years); and older
adults (35-64years). In terms of reproduction and production, the young adults are
much better than their older counterparts.
The Aged (60 or 65 years and above): In this group, there is a large proportion
of females, who are mostly non-productive and widows. As a population matures,
the proportion of this age group tends to increase. In such situations, a population
is described as being “top heavy”. This is true of Sweden and many European
countries, for example. That a country is top heavy has implications for the
replacement of the proportion of the aged in a population with machines. In many
developing countries, lesser proportion of the populations are aged compared to
about 15% in the advanced countries. In Nigeria, the proportion aged is not only

35
presently low, but likely to be lower especially because of the prevailing decline
in life expectancy.
The social and economic implications of the three age groups and the variation
from one population to another are worthy of serious consideration. The infants,
adolescents and the aged are more or less dependent on the adult population. So,
any measure that may affect the length of active life, especially delay in the
commencement of active life whether due to prolonged education or change in the
age of retirement, have implications for the care of infants, adolescents and the
aged as dependants. The age–sex structure of a country is often studied through
the use of population pyramids.
Population Pyramid
Population pyramids give a clear picture of the characteristics of a population. The
sum of the age and sex groups in the pyramids always equals 100% of the total
population. To construct a population pyramid, the vertical axis is graduated in
years or groups of years from “0” upward while the horizontal axis shows either
the numbers or percentages of males and females within these group (i.e.by age
and sex). In practice, the “percentage” method is better for easy comparison of the
pyramids. Populations differ according to countries and they tend to fall into three
general profiles of ages-sex composition. These profiles are (a) expansive (b)
constrictive and (c) stationary.
The population of the expansive pyramid type often has large number of people in
the young ages. An example is Nigeria and many other developing countries. A
constrictive pyramid tends to have few of its population in the younger ages. An
example is U.S.A. which is characterized by low fertility and low mortality. This
implies low growth potential. A stationary pyramid depicts a population with
roughly equal number of people in all ages and tapering off gradually at the older
36
 age. An example is Sweden which experiences equal number of births and deaths.
Diagrams of the three types of pyramids are as follows:

Source: https://planningtank.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Agesex2.png

Another measure through which the composition of a population can be explained

is SEX RATIO. This is based on the sex composition of a given population. It can
be estimated through:
i. Estimation of number of males per 1,000 or 100 females or vice-versa. This is
symbolically represented as:
Pm x 100 or 1,000 OR Pf x 100 or 1,000
Pf 1 1 Pm 1 1

ii. Expressing number of males or females as a percentages of the total population,

for example, if there are 10 females within a total population of 60. Applying
this method would give:
10 x 100
60 1 = 16.66%

37
iii. Expressing the proportion of males or females as a decimal of unity e.g. Finding
the proportion of males if there are 10 females in a population of 60 students
through this method would involve the following steps.
Proportion female = 10 = 0.167 females
60
Proportion male = 1 - 0.167 = 0.833 females

Marital Status: The marital status of a population refers to the proportion of

single, married, widowed and divorced persons. These proportions are influenced
by age structure, sex ratio, social institutions and economic conditions. Therefore,
the marital status of any given population is never constant.
The Single Population: may be divided into three group viz; persons below the
legal age of marriage; unmarried adults but desiring marriage any time and
celibates who had vowed to a single life. The number in this groups vary greatly
throughout the world according to legal requirements, religious doctrines, social
traditions and economic conditions.
Married Population: Marriage is not biological as birth and death. It is an
inevitable social phenomenon. It is a legal fact and its legality may be established
by civil, religious or other means such as traditional customs. In Nigeria, all the
three (3) means are usually employed. There are three types of marriage. They are
monogamy (marriage of one man to one woman); polygyny (marriage of one man
to two or more women); and polyandry, (the marriage of one woman to two or
more men). This is rare in almost all societies except Asia. Forms of marriage
becomes of interest to demographers especially because they may have profound
influence upon fertility and population growth. Marriage rates can be calculated
using the following formula:
M x K
P
38
 M = number of marriages in a population for a year.
P = total mid-year population
K = constant which could be 1,000 or 100,000
Widowhood: In the developing countries, Nigeria for example, statistics on
widowhood is scanty. In any population, however, there are usually more widows
than widowers. This is because men marry later, have a higher mortality tendency,
and re-marry more often than women.
Divorce and Separation: In nearly all societies of the world, the institution of
marriage is experiencing strains. This has inevitably resulted into increase in the
number of divorcees. Divorce rate is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. This
is as a result of different social attitudes as well as economic conditions. However,
most divorcees often re-marry and start new families. Remarriage is thus an
important aspect of fertility studies, especially if it occurs in the child bearing ages.
i. There are 3 different ways through which divorce rates can be measures in a
population. These are:
a. Calculating the number of divorcees or separated per 1,000 or 10,000
inhabitants
ND X 1,000 or 10,000
TP 1 1
b. Calculating the ratio of the number of divorces to the average number of
marriages contracted in the preceding decade.
c. Calculating the ratio of the number of divorces to the total number of
married couples.

39