LATINFOCUS

CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • September 2023
SUMMARY 2
NEWS IN FOCUS 7
CALENDAR 20
ARGENTINA 21
BRAZIL 37
CHILE 53
COLOMBIA 69
MEXICO 85
PERU 101
VENEZUELA 116
OTHER COUNTRIES 124
BOLIVIA 124
ECUADOR 127
PARAGUAY 135
URUGUAY 138
NOTES 145

Contributors
PUBLICATION DATE 12 September 2023 OLIVER REYNOLDS
FORECASTS COLLECTED 5 September - 7 September 2023
LATIN AMERICA SENIOR ECONOMIST
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 7 September 2023
ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE JOAN ARGILAGÓS
NEXT EDITION 10 October 2023
Chief Economist Head of Data Solutions Head of Data Analysis

MASSIMO BASSETTI HANNAH TAYLOR ALEXANDER RITUERTO

Senior Economist Editor Junior Data Analyst
ALMANAS STANAPEDIS BENCE VÁRADI BORJA VALERO
Senior Economist Development Team Lead Junior Data Analyst
MARTA CASANOVAS MAR LOBATO INÉS DRAAIJER
Economist Data Quality Coordinator Research Assistant
MATTHEW CUNNINGHAM PAOLA TIRANZONI PAU ROMERO
Economist Data Solutions Specialist Research Assistant
ALEJANDRO LÓPEZ ÒSCAR BUSQUETS ALINA PETRYK
Economist Junior Data Scientist Partnerships Manager
STEFAN POSEA JAN LEYVA
Economist Junior Data Scientist
MAGDALENA PRESHLENOVA ALBERT NAVARRO
Economist Junior Data Scientist
ADRIÀ SOLANES MARTA OLIVA
Economist Junior Data Analyst
© FocusEconomics 2023
ISSN 2013-4975
 Summary
Summary September 2023

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
World -2.5 6.2 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 4.0 8.0 6.0 4.5
United States -2.8 5.9 2.1 1.7 0.8 1.2 4.7 8.0 4.1 2.6
Euro Area -6.2 5.5 3.4 0.6 1.0 0.3 2.6 8.4 5.6 2.7
China 2.2 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.6 2.5 0.9 2.0 1.0 1.9
Japan -4.2 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 -0.2 2.5 2.9 1.8
Latin America -6.6 7.2 3.8 1.8 1.6 6.4 10.0 15.6 17.1 16.9
Chile -6.1 11.7 2.4 -0.2 1.9 3.0 4.5 11.6 7.8 3.7
Mexico -8.7 5.8 3.9 2.7 1.8 3.4 5.7 7.9 5.6 4.1
Mercosur -4.6 6.2 3.4 1.3 1.1 11.0 17.0 24.2 30.4 32.8
Argentina -9.9 10.7 5.0 -2.8 -0.8 42.0 48.4 72.4 124.5 152.0
Brazil -3.3 5.0 2.9 2.4 1.4 3.2 8.3 9.3 4.8 4.2
Paraguay -0.8 4.0 0.1 4.3 3.9 1.8 4.8 9.8 5.0 3.7
Uruguay -6.3 5.3 4.9 1.3 2.7 9.8 7.7 9.1 6.5 6.2
Venezuela -29.6 0.5 11.8 3.0 3.5 2,355 1,589 187 346 149
Andean Com. -8.7 10.4 4.9 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.0 7.9 8.0 4.4
Bolivia -8.7 6.1 3.5 2.3 2.4 0.9 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.1
Colombia -7.3 11.0 7.3 1.4 1.8 2.5 3.5 10.2 11.5 5.8
Ecuador -7.8 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.8 -0.3 0.1 3.5 2.4 2.6
Peru -11.0 13.3 2.7 1.3 2.6 1.8 4.0 7.9 6.5 3.4
Centam & Carib. -7.4 7.5 4.7 2.8 2.8 2.1 3.9 7.6 4.6 3.3

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
World -9.3 -6.3 -3.9 -4.4 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -14.9 -12.3 -5.5 -5.6 -5.6 -2.8 -3.6 -3.8 -3.2 -3.1
Euro Area -7.1 -5.3 -3.6 -3.4 -2.8 1.7 2.8 -0.8 1.7 1.9
China -6.2 -3.8 -4.7 -4.8 -4.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.3
Japan -9.1 -6.2 -6.4 -6.2 -4.2 3.0 3.9 2.1 2.4 2.7
Latin America -8.4 -4.1 -3.5 -4.9 -4.4 -0.2 -1.9 -2.6 -1.8 -1.6
Chile -7.3 -7.7 1.1 -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -7.3 -9.0 -3.2 -3.4
Mexico -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -3.8 -3.6 2.0 -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9
Mercosur -12.0 -4.1 -4.4 -6.8 -5.9 -1.3 -1.9 -2.4 -2.1 -1.7
Argentina -8.4 -3.6 -3.8 -4.4 -2.6 0.7 1.4 -0.7 -1.9 0.6
Brazil -13.3 -4.3 -4.6 -7.8 -6.9 -1.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.1 -2.3
Paraguay -6.1 -3.6 -3.0 -2.4 -1.8 2.0 -0.8 -6.7 -1.0 -0.9
Uruguay -5.2 -3.5 -3.2 -2.7 -1.8 -0.8 -2.5 -3.5 -3.1 -1.9
Venezuela -5.0 -4.6 -6.0 -5.4 -4.9 -1.6 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.9
Andean Com. -8.3 -4.8 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -0.8 -2.8 -3.9 -2.3 -2.3
Bolivia -12.7 -9.3 -7.3 -6.6 -6.1 -0.1 2.2 -0.4 -2.1 -2.4
Colombia -7.8 -7.0 -5.3 -4.3 -4.2 -3.4 -5.6 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7
Ecuador -7.1 -1.6 0.1 -1.5 -1.7 2.2 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.5
Peru -8.9 -2.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.3 1.1 -2.2 -4.1 -1.7 -1.4
Centam & Carib. -7.5 -3.9 -2.2 -2.6 -2.5 0.5 -1.2 -1.7 -1.4 -1.2

Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

 Summary September 2023

Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

Latin America’s GDP growth will be below half its 2022 level this
year on tight monetary policy and drought in some countries.
However, forecasts have been revised up recently, and a tourism
recovery, strong remittances from the U.S. and a bumper harvest
in Brazil will provide support. Sociopolitical unrest and a further
economic slowdown in China pose downside risks.

Argentina is poised to be Latin America’s worst-performing

economy this year, rocked by FX controls, hyperinflation, drought
and sky-high interest rates. Higher visitor arrivals and rising
energy output from the Vaca Muerta field will lend some support.
Risks are skewed to the downside and include a further collapse
of the currency, debt default and political instability.

Our panelists have once again upgraded their 2023 GDP forecasts
over the last month, likely due to a stronger-than-anticipated
economic expansion in Q2. Growth is now seen slowing only
slightly from 2022 this year as lower interest rates, softer inflation,
fiscal stimulus, a lower unemployment rate and a bumper harvest
will all support activity.

GDP is seen shrinking marginally overall in 2023, though a

recovery should take hold in H2 and heading into 2024 as inflation
and interest rates fall. A further economic deterioration in China
is a downside risk. The outcome of December’s constitutional
referendum and the government’s proposed reforms to boost
pensions, taxes and public spending are key factors to watch.

GDP growth will fall far below its 10-year pre-pandemic average
of 3.7% this year. This will be due to double-digit inflation and a
rising policy rate. Growth will be further hurt by weaker exports.
Key factors to watch include the President’s policies and El Niño,
which could stoke inflation and hurt agricultural GDP.

Economic growth should substantially outperform the Latin

American average in 2023 thanks to healthy private consumption
growth, rising car production, resilient goods exports to the U.S.
and investment by firms looking to shift production closer to the
U.S. market. GDP forecasts could be revised up further going
forward in light of strong recent data.

The pace of GDP expansion will decelerate notably this year from
2022. Sticky inflation and tighter financing conditions will constrain
domestic activity. Additionally, the external sector will suffer from
the effects of global headwinds. El Niño-associated weather
events and the re-emergence of social unrest amid political
uncertainty pose downside risks.

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2023.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

 Summary September 2023

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

Regional inflation declined to 15.5% in July from 15.7% in June,

and most countries that have reported data saw price pressures
dip in August. On aggregate, regional inflation is seen rising from
current levels by year-end. However, this is mainly due to FX
weakness in Argentina; most countries should see declining or
broadly stable inflation from now through to end-2023.

Inflation dropped to 113.4% in July from 115.6% in June, which

had marked the highest rate in the current series. Inflation will
surge this year relative to 2022, stoked by a collapsing peso amid
monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. Faster-than-expected peso
depreciation and fiscal largesse ahead of the October elections
are key upside risks.

In July, inflation rose to a three-month high of 4.0% (June: 3.2%),

surpassing the Central Bank (BCB)’s 3.25% target for this year
and overshooting market expectations. Inflation will pick up in the
remainder of 2023 from current levels due to lower interest rates,
a weaker real, fiscal stimulus and higher fuel prices—with the
latter partly due to the recent reinstatement of a federal tax.

Inflation came in at 6.5% in July (June: 7.6%), the lowest rate since
October 2021 but still more than double the Central Bank’s 3.0%
target. Inflation should fall further later this year but will remain
above the Bank’s target amid monetary easing, recent peso
weakening and an uptick in oil prices. Inflation is only expected to
fall close to target towards end-2024.

Inflation eased to 11.4% in August from 11.8% in July. It should

continue to cool ahead as domestic demand weakens and the
base effect toughens. That said, inflation is seen remaining above
the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target even at the end of 2024. Key
factors to watch include commodity prices, fiscal stimulus and the
strength of the peso.

Inflation fell to 4.6% in August from July’s 4.8%, the lowest rate
since February 2021. Our panelists expect inflation to average
slightly above the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0%
target range in H2 and through most of 2024, fueled by robust
economic activity, the recent uptick in global oil prices, brisk wage
growth and an expected weakening of the peso.

Inflation came in at 5.6% in August, down from July’s 5.9%.

Inflation will continue its downtrend ahead this year, curbed by
previous monetary policy hikes and improved supply conditions.
Upside risks stem from an expansionary fiscal stance and the
threat posed to agricultural output by El Niño.

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2023. Inflation figures for 2023 refer to AOP.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

 Summary September 2023

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

In August–September, the central banks of Brazil, Chile, Paraguay

and Uruguay cut their policy rates in response to falling inflation,
while Argentina’s Central Bank jacked up rates to protect the
currency. Further monetary easing is forecast in most economies
in the region before end-2023, although interest rates in Argentina
are likely to rise further to control prices.

On 14 August, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) hiked the

LELIQ rate to 118.0% from 97.00% in a bid to support a plummeting
peso. The BCRA acts in coordination with the Ministry of Economy
to reduce monetary financing of the budget deficit. Rates are seen
rising further ahead to tame price pressures.

At its latest meeting on 1–2 August, the BCB kicked off its loosening
cycle more aggressively than markets had anticipated, delivering
a 50 basis point cut that lowered the SELIC rate to 13.25%. The
Bank hinted it would make a same-size cut when it next convenes
on 19–20 September. Our panelists see between 25–200 basis
points of additional cuts by year-end.

The Central Bank cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 9.50%

on 5 September and hinted at more cuts going forward due to its
expectation of a further decline in inflation ahead. The Consensus
is for over 150 basis points of additional easing by end-2023,
though there is a 175 basis point spread among end-of-year policy
rate forecasts.

On 31 July, the Central Bank held its benchmark interest rate at

13.25%—the highest level since 1999—for the second consecutive
month. The Bank’s next meeting is set for 29 September. The
Consensus is for the Bank to reduce the benchmark rate by
roughly 125 basis points from its current level by end-2023.
Unexpectedly sticky core inflation is an upside risk.

On 10 August, Banxico left the overnight interbank interest rate

target at 11.25%, following a similar hold in June. The Bank
repeated its intention to “maintain the reference rate at its current
level for an extended period”. Most panelists see Banxico starting
to loosen its monetary stance in Q4 2023, though some see rates
unchanged through year-end.

At its 10 August meeting, the Central Bank of Peru kept its key
policy interest rate at 7.75%—where it has been since January.
The decision was driven by declining headline inflation, core
inflation and inflation expectations. Our panel expects the Bank to
cut rates later this year as inflation gradually moderates.

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2023.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |5

 Summary September 2023

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

Most regional currencies lost ground against the USD over the
last month, with the currencies of Argentina and Venezuela once
again recording the largest losses. In contrast, the Uruguayan
peso strengthened. Regional currencies will be weaker year on
year at end-2023; the most notable depreciations are seen in
Argentina and Venezuela.

The peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7 September,

depreciating 19.1% month on month. The parallel market rate
traded at ARS 720.00 per USD on 7 September, depreciating
17.2% month on month. On 14 August, the government devalued
the official rate by nearly 18%, mirroring a plunge in the parallel
rate. The peso will continue to weaken ahead.

The real traded at BRL 4.98 per USD on 7 September, depreciating

1.4% month on month. The real’s weakening was likely limited by
GDP growth in Q2 overshooting expectations. Going ahead, the
currency is expected to end the year close to its current value, but
a dwindling interest rate differential compared to the U.S. Fed is
a depreciatory risk.

The peso traded at CLP 878 per USD on 7 September,

depreciating 2.9% month on month. Aggressive rate cuts by the
Central Bank were likely to blame. Looking ahead, the peso should
appreciate slightly from current levels by year-end, supported by
market intervention by the finance ministry. Faster-than-expected
monetary easing is a depreciatory risk.

The peso traded at COP 4,093 per USD on 7 September,

depreciating 0.4% month on month. The COP is seen losing
further ground by the end of 2023, as the Central Bank lowers
its policy rate, before stabilizing in 2024. Oil prices and the
President’s policy agenda are key factors to watch.

The peso traded at MXN 17.55 per USD on 7 September,

depreciating 2.7% month on month. Higher U.S. bond yields likely
weighed on the peso, though the currency is still 12% stronger
year to date on nearshoring and strong remittances and inward
investment. The peso should weaken from current levels by end-
2023 as the interest rate differential with the U.S. narrows.

The sol traded at PEN 3.71 per USD on 7 September, depreciating

0.5% month on month. The currency should lose some ground
from current levels by the end of this year amid protracted
domestic political and social instability and a narrowing interest
rate differential with the U.S. Volatile copper prices are a key
factor to watch.

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2023.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |6

 News in Focus
Summary September 2023

News in Focus
ARGENTINA: Economic activity decreases at softer pace in
June
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) slid 4.4% year
on year in June (May: -5.5% yoy). On a monthly basis, economic
activity dropped 0.2% in June, easing from May’s 0.6% fall. Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

ARGENTINA: Peso plummets following surprise primary

election outcome
The Argentine peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7
September, depreciating 19.1% month on month. Meanwhile,
the parallel market rate traded at ARS 720.00 per USD on 7
September, depreciating 17.2% month on month. This was due
to the Central Bank devaluing the peso by around 18% on the 13
August.

BRAZIL: GDP growth slows in Q2

Note: Official exchange rate vs the U.S dollar.
GDP growth slowed to 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on- Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
quarter basis in Q2 (Q1: +1.8% s.a. qoq). Despite the slowdown,
the result outperformed market expectations: Market analysts had
anticipated a 0.3% increase. BRAZIL | Gross Domestic Product

BRAZIL: Inflation increases in July

Inflation came in at 4.0% in July, up from June’s 3.2%. July’s result
was markedly above the Central Bank of Brazil’s 3.25% target for
the year and overshot market expectations of a 3.9% increase.

CHILE: GDP drops in the second quarter in both annual and

quarterly terms
GDP contracted 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter
basis in Q2, contrasting the downwardly revised 0.4% expansion
logged in Q1. On an annual basis, GDP declined 1.1% in Q2, Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-
compared to the previous period’s 0.8% contraction. year variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

COLOMBIA: Economy weakens more than expected in Q2

GDP growth waned to 0.3% year on year in the second quarter,
from 3.0% in the first quarter. Q2’s reading marked the worst result COLOMBIA | Gross Domestic Product
since Q4 2020. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter
basis, economic activity contracted 1.0% in Q2, contrasting the
previous quarter’s 2.2% expansion.

MEXICO: Manufacturing PMI improves in August; non-

manufacturing PMI stable
The Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 52.3 in August, up
from July’s 51.3. Meanwhile, the non-Manufacturing PMI clocked
in at 52.1 in August, unchanged from July.

Note: Year-on-year changes and quarter-on-quarter of GDP in %.

PERU: Economy records sharpest contraction since Q4 2020 Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
in Q2
GDP contracted at a sharper pace of 0.5% year on year in the
second quarter, below the 0.4% contraction tallied in the first
quarter. Q2’s reading marked the worst reading since Q4 2020.
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP declined
at a more moderate pace of 0.2% in Q2.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |7

 Summary September 2023

Population, millions Population, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 625 630 636 641 646 652 659
Chile 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9
Mexico 129 130 131 132 133 134 135
Mercosur 269 271 273 275 277 278 282
Argentina 45.8 46.3 46.8 47.2 47.7 48.2 48.7
Brazil 213 214 215 216 217 219 222
Paraguay 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0
Uruguay 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Venezuela 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.5 - - -
Andean Com. 114 116 117 118 120 121 122
Bolivia 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8
Colombia 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.7 54.3
Ecuador 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3
Peru 33.8 34.2 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.6 35.9
Centam & Carib. 92.4 93.3 94.4 95.4 96.4 97.5 98.6

Notes and sources

Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts

exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).

GDP, USD billions GDP, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 5,088 5,773 6,327 6,579 6,960 7,400 8,031
Chile 316 301 346 363 386 412 438
Mexico 1,312 1,466 1,690 1,750 1,831 1,907 2,005
Mercosur 2,237 2,663 2,861 2,938 3,136 3,386 3,787
Argentina 487 630 610 569 671 771 991
Brazil 1,649 1,921 2,126 2,239 2,327 2,468 2,644
Paraguay 39.8 41.6 44.1 47.1 49.8 52.8 55.9
Uruguay 61.3 71.1 80.2 83.5 88.1 93.7 95.8
Venezuela 111.8 128.8 137.6 147.3 155.4 - -
Andean Com. 691 747 794 856 909 960 1,028
Bolivia 40.4 44.1 46.2 48.2 50.7 52.0 54.6
Colombia 319 344 361 399 428 459 499
Ecuador 106 115 118 124 132 134 140
Peru 226 245 268 285 298 315 335
Centam & Carib. 532 595 637 672 699 735 774

Notes and sources

Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur

forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |8

 Summary September 2023

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 7.2 3.8 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.4
Chile 11.7 2.4 -0.2 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.6
Mexico 5.8 3.9 2.7 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3
Mercosur 6.2 3.4 1.3 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.2
Argentina 10.7 5.0 -2.8 -0.8 2.4 2.3 2.2
Brazil 5.0 2.9 2.4 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1
Paraguay 4.0 0.1 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.6
Uruguay 5.3 4.9 1.3 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4
Venezuela 0.5 11.8 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.0 2.9
Andean Com. 10.4 4.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.0
Bolivia 6.1 3.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8
Colombia 11.0 7.3 1.4 1.8 2.8 3.1 3.2
Ecuador 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.3
Peru 13.3 2.7 1.3 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1
Centam & Carib. 7.5 4.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 8,143 9,158 9,951 10,260 10,767 11,354 12,181
Chile 16,031 15,091 17,201 17,890 18,833 19,925 20,994
Mexico 10,169 11,270 12,878 13,227 13,728 14,191 14,813
Mercosur 8,306 9,819 10,477 10,692 11,340 12,167 13,419
Argentina 10,625 13,606 13,055 12,039 14,057 16,001 20,357
Brazil 7,756 8,978 9,880 10,350 10,702 11,290 11,914
Paraguay 5,414 5,579 5,831 6,156 6,419 6,720 7,023
Uruguay 17,313 20,004 22,476 23,337 24,550 26,025 26,527
Venezuela 4,053 4,786 5,183 5,565 - - -
Andean Com. 6,037 6,457 6,782 7,229 7,598 7,938 8,403
Bolivia 3,428 3,685 3,810 3,924 4,069 4,113 4,261
Colombia 6,241 6,659 6,929 7,569 8,051 8,545 9,189
Ecuador 5,979 6,390 6,475 6,684 7,015 7,030 7,231
Peru 6,669 7,157 7,768 8,172 8,473 8,865 9,325
Centam & Carib. 5,764 6,374 6,747 7,039 7,247 7,543 7,848

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |9

 Summary September 2023

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 8.3 5.7 1.6 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.5
Chile 20.8 2.9 -4.2 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.4
Mexico 7.5 6.1 3.1 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5
Mercosur 5.2 5.6 1.2 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.3
Argentina 10.4 9.7 -1.5 -1.4 3.3 2.7 2.7
Brazil 3.7 4.3 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.1
Paraguay 6.1 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.5 4.0 3.5
Uruguay 2.9 6.0 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4
Venezuela 0.4 11.0 3.3 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.9
Andean Com. 12.6 6.5 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.0
Bolivia 5.3 4.2 2.4 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.7
Colombia 14.5 9.5 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.2
Ecuador 10.2 4.6 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.7
Peru 12.4 3.6 1.6 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.8
Centam & Carib. 10.4 5.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2

Notes and sources

Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 17.4 4.7 0.3 1.7 3.0 3.1 3.0
Chile 15.7 2.8 -2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.5
Mexico 10.7 6.0 5.3 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.5
Mercosur 20.3 3.5 -2.5 1.2 3.4 3.4 3.1
Argentina 33.8 11.1 -6.2 -2.1 5.6 4.9 5.2
Brazil 16.5 0.9 -1.7 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.4
Paraguay 18.2 -2.3 0.5 6.4 6.3 4.9 3.6
Uruguay 16.5 9.5 2.2 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.0
Venezuela -3.0 20.9 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1
Andean Com. 20.7 6.3 -2.6 1.4 3.7 3.4 3.5
Bolivia 11.9 6.5 2.7 1.9 3.1 - -
Colombia 17.3 11.4 -2.8 0.7 4.8 3.9 4.3
Ecuador 4.3 2.5 -0.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Peru 34.6 1.0 -4.2 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.9
Centam & Carib. 18.2 6.4 4.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 10

 Summary September 2023

Industrial Production, annual variation in % Industrial Production Growth, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 7.7 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.5
Chile 5.3 -2.5 -2.2 0.0 - - -
Mexico 5.6 3.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.7
Mercosur 7.0 0.6 0.1 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.2
Argentina 15.7 4.2 -1.2 0.0 2.6 3.0 2.7
Brazil 4.2 -0.7 0.4 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.0
Uruguay 12.3 3.6 1.1 2.5 2.8 - -
Venezuela 12.9 13.6 5.3 5.5 - - -
Andean Com. 17.2 6.6 -0.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.0
Colombia 16.2 10.7 -0.5 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.5
Peru 18.7 0.9 -1.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.4

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile,

Colombia and Peru refers to manufacturing. Latin America and
Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 9.5 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8
Chile 9.1 7.8 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.4
Mexico 4.1 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
Mercosur 12.3 8.8 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.1
Argentina 8.8 6.8 7.7 8.6 8.1 8.0 7.8
Brazil 13.5 9.5 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.3
Uruguay 9.3 7.9 8.2 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0
Venezuela 38.4 34.3 33.4 32.5 31.0 28.3 26.4
Andean Com. 11.3 8.6 8.4 8.3 - - -
Bolivia 6.9 4.7 4.9 4.9 - - -
Colombia 13.8 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.2
Ecuador 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.3 - - -
Peru 11.3 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5
Centam & Carib. 8.9 7.2 7.0 6.7 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes

in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 11

 Summary September 2023

Public Debt, % of GDP Public Debt, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 63.2 61.5 62.9 63.5 64.1 63.8 64.3
Chile 36.4 37.6 38.9 40.4 41.0 39.8 38.6
Mexico 50.7 48.3 49.7 50.3 50.5 49.8 49.5
Mercosur 77.8 75.1 78.4 79.6 81.2 81.0 81.6
Argentina 80.6 85.2 90.7 84.1 78.2 71.8 74.4
Brazil 78.3 72.9 76.1 79.6 82.0 83.8 84.3
Paraguay 37.5 40.9 41.8 42.5 - - -
Uruguay 69.1 67.1 67.3 68.3 - - -
Andean Com. 54.3 52.4 51.0 51.1 50.9 49.7 49.4
Bolivia 81.4 82.6 82.7 85.1 85.8 86.1 86.2
Colombia 63.0 61.1 58.9 58.7 58.0 55.4 54.6
Ecuador 57.1 54.2 53.9 52.8 52.3 51.3 50.9
Peru 35.9 33.8 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.7 35.0
Centam & Carib. 59.0 55.5 54.3 53.1 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Public debt as % GDP.

Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and IMF.

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America -4.1 -3.5 -4.9 -4.4 -3.9 -3.6 -3.3
Chile -7.7 1.1 -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.3
Mexico -2.8 -3.2 -3.8 -3.6 -3.2 -2.9 -2.6
Mercosur -4.1 -4.4 -6.8 -5.9 -5.2 -4.8 -4.2
Argentina -3.6 -3.8 -4.4 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -1.7
Brazil -4.3 -4.6 -7.8 -6.9 -6.2 -5.8 -5.3
Paraguay -3.6 -3.0 -2.4 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5
Uruguay -3.5 -3.2 -2.7 -1.8 -1.4 -2.6 -2.6
Venezuela -4.6 -6.0 -5.4 -4.9 -3.3 -2.8 -
Andean Com. -4.8 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.6 -2.4
Bolivia -9.3 -7.3 -6.6 -6.1 -6.0 -5.7 -5.4
Colombia -7.0 -5.3 -4.3 -4.2 -3.7 -3.4 -3.1
Ecuador -1.6 0.1 -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4
Peru -2.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8 -1.7
Centam & Carib. -3.9 -2.2 -2.6 -2.5 -2.3 -2.1 -2.1

Notes and sources

Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.

Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Venezuela: General government.
Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries and IMF.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 12

 Summary September 2023

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 10.0 15.6 17.1 16.9 10.5 8.0 7.4
Chile 4.5 11.6 7.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.0
Mexico 5.7 7.9 5.6 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.5
Mercosur 17.0 24.2 30.4 32.8 18.9 13.4 11.9
Argentina 48.4 72.4 124.5 152.0 74.5 46.3 35.3
Brazil 8.3 9.3 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.5
Paraguay 4.8 9.8 5.0 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Uruguay 7.7 9.1 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.0 4.9
Venezuela 1,589 187 346 149 99.7 74.4 75.1
Andean Com. 3.0 7.9 8.0 4.4 3.3 2.9 2.9
Bolivia 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.1
Colombia 3.5 10.2 11.5 5.8 3.9 3.3 3.3
Ecuador 0.1 3.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.1
Peru 4.0 7.9 6.5 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5
Centam & Carib. 3.9 7.6 4.6 3.3 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Average-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 9.55 18.95 23.64 13.98 11.40 9.69 8.55
Chile 4.00 11.25 7.90 4.66 4.22 4.07 3.80
Mexico 5.50 10.50 10.82 8.40 6.86 6.75 6.67
Mercosur 15.34 28.09 38.62 21.60 17.37 14.01 11.40
Argentina 38.00 75.00 138.04 74.19 50.95 32.65 20.17
Brazil 9.25 13.75 11.83 9.08 8.34 8.38 8.25
Paraguay 5.25 8.50 6.90 5.30 5.17 5.17 5.17
Uruguay 5.75 11.25 9.39 8.33 7.31 - -
Andean Com. 2.79 10.13 9.74 6.17 4.97 4.73 4.65
Colombia 3.00 12.00 11.97 7.26 5.64 5.29 5.11
Peru 2.50 7.50 6.74 4.65 4.02 3.92 3.96
Centam & Carib. 2.46 6.36 5.36 4.39 4.08 3.95 -

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: 7-day LELIQ rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
Uruguay: Monetary policy rate.
Sources: National central banks

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 13

 Summary September 2023

Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in % Exchange Rates versus USD, 2023
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America -7.6 -2.3 -1.2 -6.6 -4.4 -3.8 -2.8
Chile -16.6 0.0 3.2 1.2 0.0 -2.0 1.0
Mexico -2.6 5.0 8.3 -3.9 -3.5 -1.1 -1.2
Mercosur -9.1 -5.7 -9.8 -11.6 -7.0 -6.4 -4.7
Argentina -18.1 -42.0 -68.6 -49.4 -25.9 -24.7 -18.4
Brazil -6.7 5.5 6.6 -2.4 -1.8 -1.0 0.3
Paraguay -0.1 -6.2 0.7 -0.8 -2.0 -1.0 -1.4
Uruguay -5.6 12.7 -1.3 -5.2 -3.9 -2.4 -3.7
Andean Com. -11.1 -7.6 8.6 -0.3 -0.3 -1.3 -0.9
Bolivia -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -4.1 -4.3 -7.7 -1.2
Colombia -13.8 -17.2 14.3 0.1 0.0 -1.2 -1.9
Peru -9.4 4.6 2.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.7
Centam & Carib. -2.5 -0.3 0.0 -1.1 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8

Notes and sources

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus

USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
On 1 October 2021, authorities in Venezuela removed six zeros from
the currency. As a result, the figures have been temporarily removed
from the table.
Sources: Central banks and Macrobond Financial AB.

Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America -1.9 -2.6 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 -1.8 -1.8
Chile -7.3 -9.0 -3.2 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -3.6
Mexico -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3
Mercosur -1.9 -2.4 -2.1 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7
Argentina 1.4 -0.7 -1.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4
Brazil -2.8 -2.8 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.5
Paraguay -0.8 -6.7 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4
Uruguay -2.5 -3.5 -3.1 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.5
Venezuela 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 - -
Andean Com. -2.8 -3.9 -2.3 -2.3 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1
Bolivia 2.2 -0.4 -2.1 -2.4 -2.3 -2.8 -2.6
Colombia -5.6 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -3.5 -3.4 -3.5
Ecuador 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.3
Peru -2.2 -4.1 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.6
Centam & Carib. -1.2 -1.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 14

 Summary September 2023

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 30.9 17.2 -0.3 4.2 3.9 4.4 6.2
Chile 28.0 4.0 0.9 2.9 0.9 3.4 2.6
Mexico 18.6 16.7 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.2 4.0
Mercosur 36.3 17.1 -3.3 4.2 3.6 4.9 8.6
Argentina 42.0 13.5 -18.1 16.0 4.5 0.4 3.8
Brazil 34.2 19.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 6.4 10.5
Paraguay 20.7 -3.1 13.9 5.6 2.3 3.7 5.7
Uruguay 56.0 8.8 2.9 5.3 5.3 2.7 4.7
Venezuela 21.9 46.9 -2.4 3.1 -0.7 3.8 -0.8
Andean Com. 38.3 24.7 -3.6 3.1 6.2 2.6 3.5
Bolivia 56.4 23.5 -8.7 4.9 -0.6 1.3 4.2
Colombia 32.3 39.5 -5.8 4.6 7.0 1.4 3.9
Ecuador 31.1 22.5 -5.3 -2.6 6.9 2.3 0.1
Peru 47.0 5.2 1.1 3.1 5.9 4.7 4.3
Centam & Carib. 30.6 16.0 1.7 4.5 3.4 6.2 6.2

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 38.5 22.8 -2.8 3.9 4.6 5.0 6.6
Chile 53.0 12.4 -11.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 2.9
Mexico 32.0 19.6 3.7 4.5 5.2 4.3 4.0
Mercosur 40.5 25.2 -5.4 3.7 4.5 5.9 9.1
Argentina 49.2 29.0 -10.7 -1.5 9.0 4.9 8.7
Brazil 38.2 24.2 -4.2 5.0 3.3 6.3 9.5
Paraguay 29.4 17.1 -1.7 6.0 1.8 3.9 6.2
Uruguay 41.9 21.4 1.7 3.8 2.2 4.9 6.0
Venezuela 18.2 42.6 1.5 4.5 -4.3 1.3 -3.2
Andean Com. 38.2 23.8 -7.7 3.7 4.4 2.9 4.8
Bolivia 37.0 35.6 -4.5 4.7 1.0 3.5 4.0
Colombia 37.7 26.3 -11.2 4.0 3.7 1.7 4.6
Ecuador 40.3 27.2 -5.8 0.7 2.9 2.3 1.7
Peru 38.2 16.5 -4.3 4.4 6.5 4.7 6.5
Centam & Carib. 37.4 24.7 3.2 2.8 3.6 5.3 5.4

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 15

 Summary September 2023

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 11.8 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.0
Chile 7.3 5.0 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.2
Mexico 4.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7
Mercosur 16.9 12.3 13.2 13.3 13.1 12.6 11.6
Argentina 7.5 6.6 4.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 5.9
Brazil 19.8 14.3 15.7 15.2 15.1 14.5 13.7
Paraguay 9.5 8.0 8.2 8.3 - - -
Uruguay 18.1 13.3 13.5 13.0 13.9 14.3 14.0
Venezuela 14.7 9.4 9.1 9.2 9.6 9.7 10.1
Andean Com. 13.5 10.6 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.7 13.3
Colombia 12.4 9.6 11.0 10.8 11.1 10.7 10.7
Ecuador 4.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.1 -
Peru 19.6 15.5 16.7 16.3 16.2 16.7 17.3
Centam & Carib. 7.3 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0

Notes and sources

Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks.

External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2023

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Latin America 43.0 38.2 36.6 35.2 - - -
Chile 75.2 77.6 71.3 70.9 64.8 - -
Mexico 46.0 40.1 39.3 39.8 41.1 38.7 38.6
Mercosur 29.2 24.9 23.1 23.7 - - -
Argentina 55.0 43.9 44.8 50.0 42.2 37.5 29.9
Brazil 19.7 16.6 15.1 15.2 - - -
Uruguay 79.5 78.1 72.2 71.6 69.4 - -
Venezuela 95 85 80 75 - - -
Andean Com. 50.0 48.5 48.2 46.5 - - -
Bolivia 39.5 42.2 44.0 45.8 47.9 51.4 54.5
Colombia 53.8 53.6 53.4 51.5 49.2 48.1 46.0
Ecuador 53.0 50.0 51.6 - - - -
Peru 45.2 41.8 40.5 39.5 - - -
Centam & Carib. 71.2 65.7 61.6 - - - -

Notes and sources

Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur

forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 16

 Summary September 2023

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign Spreads (bps) Moody's S&P Fitch Ratings
August July Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings Outlook
Argentina 2,097 1,982 Ca Stable CCC- Negative C -
Bolivia 1,194 908 Caa1 Negative B- Negative B- Negative
Brazil 211 197 Ba2 Stable BB- Positive BB Stable
Chile 131 119 A2 Stable A Stable A- Stable
Colombia 321 313 Baa2 Stable BB+ Stable BB+ Stable
Ecuador 1,850 1,934 Caa3 Stable B- Stable CCC+ -
Mexico 365 354 Baa2 Stable BBB Stable BBB- Stable
Paraguay 212 202 Ba1 Positive BB Stable BB+ Stable
Peru 164 163 Baa1 Negative BBB Negative BBB Negative
Uruguay 88 89 Baa2 Positive BBB+ Stable BBB Stable
Venezuela 34,220 38,800 - - - - Restricted Default -

Overview | Spread in bps Argentina Brazil

Venezuela 34,220 4,000 800

Argentina EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Argentina Brazil
Ecuador

Bolivia 3,000 600

EMBI + Latin

Mexico

Colombia
2,000 400

Paraguay

Brazil
1,000 200
Peru

Chile

Uruguay
0 0
0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Chile Colombia Mexico

800 800 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Chile Colombia Mexico
600 600 600

400 400 400

200 200 200

0 0 0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Peru Uruguay Venezuela

800 1,000 70,000

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
600 750 52,500

400 500 35,000

200 250 17,500

0 0 0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 17
 Summary September 2023

Major Stock Markets | Performance in %

MSCI Price Indices (USD) National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)
August 2023
Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD
Argentina -0.2 28.2 86.8 43.0 43.0 91.1 379.7 223.4
Brazil -9.3 8.9 2.6 6.6 -5.1 6.8 5.7 5.5
Chile -9.4 3.5 -7.7 -1.2 -6.2 9.0 5.6 10.5
Colombia -15.7 6.9 -9.6 -11.6 -8.4 -2.1 -12.4 -23.7
Mexico -4.6 4.5 37.7 24.6 -3.3 0.5 18.0 9.4
Peru -7.4 14.9 31.1 14.6 -1.6 9.2 22.7 8.5
Latin America -7.9 7.3 11.0 10.9 - - - -
Emerging Markets -6.4 2.3 -1.4 2.5 - - - -
World -3.0 6.2 11.9 13.3 - - - -

Overview | month-on-month var. in % Argentina Brazil

Argentina 250 100

Latin America
Latin America
World
Argentina
Brazil
200
Mexico 75

Emerging Markets
150
Peru
50
Latin America 100

Brazil
25
50
Chile

Colombia
0 0
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Chile Colombia Mexico

125 120 150

Latin America
Latin America
Chile
Colombia
100
90 100

75

60 50
50
Latin America
Mexico
25 30 0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Peru

200
Latin America
Peru
150

100

50

0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 18

 Summary September 2023

Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end

United States Euro Area

U.S. Dollar (USD) 2021 2022 2023 2024 Euro (EUR) 2021 2022 2023 2024
United States - - - - United States 1.14 1.07 1.10 1.14
Japan 115 132 137 128 Japan 131 141 150 146
Euro Area 0.88 0.94 0.91 0.88 Euro Area - - - -
Argentina 103 177 565 1,116 Argentina 117 189 621 1,270
Brazil 5.57 5.28 4.95 5.08 Brazil 6.33 5.63 5.44 5.77
Chile 852 852 825 816 Chile 969 909 907 928
Colombia 3,981 4,810 4,207 4,201 Colombia 4,527 5,134 4,624 4,780
Mexico 20.5 19.5 18.0 18.7 Mexico 23.3 20.8 19.8 21.3
Peru 3.99 3.81 3.73 3.74 Peru 4.54 4.07 4.10 4.25
Venezuela 4.6 17.5 49.50 129.02 Venezuela 5.23 18.67 54.41 146.8

Japan Argentina
Japanese Yen (JPY,100) 2021 2022 2023 2024 Argentine Peso (ARS) 2021 2022 2023 2024
United States 0.87 0.76 0.73 0.78 United States 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Japan - - - - Japan 1.12 0.74 0.24 0.11
Euro Area 0.76 0.71 0.67 0.69 Euro Area 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Argentina 89.2 134.2 414 872 Argentina - - - -
Brazil 4.84 4.00 3.63 3.96 Brazil 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.00
Chile 740 646 604 637 Chile 8.30 4.81 1.46 0.73
Colombia 3,457 3,646 3,080 3,282 Colombia 38.8 27.2 7.4 3.8
Mexico 17.8 14.8 13.2 14.6 Mexico 0.20 0.11 0.03 0.02
Peru 3.47 2.89 2.73 2.92 Peru 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00
Venezuela 3.99 13.3 36.2 101 Venezuela 0.04 0.10 0.09 0.12

Brazil Chile
Brazilian Real (BRL) 2021 2022 2023 2024 Chilean Peso (CLP, 100) 2021 2022 2023 2024
United States 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.20 United States 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Japan 20.7 25.0 27.6 25.2 Japan 13.5 15.5 16.5 15.7
Euro Area 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.17 Euro Area 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11
Argentina 18.4 33.5 114.1 220 Argentina 12.1 20.8 68.4 136.8
Brazil - - - - Brazil 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.62
Chile 153 161 167 161 Chile - - - -
Colombia 715 911 849 828 Colombia 467 565 510 515
Mexico 3.67 3.69 3.63 3.69 Mexico 2.40 2.29 2.18 2.29
Peru 0.72 0.72 0.75 0.74 Peru 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.46
Venezuela 0.83 3.31 10.0 25.4 Venezuela 0.54 2.05 6.00 15.8

Colombia Mexico
Colombian Peso (COP, 1000) 2021 2022 2023 2024 Mexican Peso (MXN) 2021 2022 2023 2024
United States 0.25 0.21 0.24 0.24 United States 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05
Japan 28.9 27.4 32.5 30.5 Japan 5.63 6.77 7.59 6.84
Euro Area 0.22 0.19 0.22 0.21 Euro Area 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05
Argentina 25.8 36.8 134.3 265.6 Argentina 5.02 9.09 31.4 59.6
Brazil 1.40 1.10 1.18 1.21 Brazil 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.27
Chile 214 177 196 194 Chile 41.6 43.7 45.9 43.6
Colombia - - - - Colombia 195 247 234 224
Mexico 5.14 4.05 4.28 4.46 Mexico - - - -
Peru 1.00 0.79 0.89 0.89 Peru 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.20
Venezuela 1.15 3.64 11.8 30.7 Venezuela 0.22 0.90 2.75 6.89

Peru Venezuela
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2021 2022 2023 2024 Venezuelan Bolívar (VED) 2021 2022 2023 2024
United States 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.27 United States 0.22 0.06 0.02 0.01
Japan 28.9 34.6 36.6 34.3 Japan 25.0 7.54 2.76 0.99
Euro Area 0.22 0.25 0.24 0.24 Euro Area 0.19 0.05 0.02 0.01
Argentina 25.7 46.4 151.5 298.6 Argentina 22.3 10.1 11.41 8.65
Brazil 1.40 1.38 1.33 1.36 Brazil 1.21 0.30 0.10 0.04
Chile 213 223 221 218 Chile 185 48.7 16.7 6.32
Colombia 998 1,261 1,128 1,124 Colombia 866 275 85.0 32.6
Mexico 5.13 5.11 4.82 5.01 Mexico 4.45 1.11 0.36 0.15
Peru - - - - Peru 0.87 0.22 0.08 0.03
Venezuela 1.15 4.59 13.3 34.5 Venezuela - - - -

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 19

 Economic Release Calendar
Calendar September 2023

Date Country Event

8 September Chile August Consumer Prices
Peru August Merchandise Trade
11 September Uruguay July Industrial Production
12 September Brazil August Consumer Prices
Peru Central Bank Meeting
14 September Argentina August Consumer Prices
Uruguay Q2 2023 National Accounts
15 September Ecuador July Economic Activity
Peru July Economic Activity
18 September Brazil July Economic Activity
Colombia July Economic Activity
Mexico Q2 2023 National Accounts (by expenditure)
20 September Argentina September Consumer Confidence (E)
Argentina Q2 2023 National Accounts
Brazil Central Bank Meeting
21 September Argentina August Merchandise Trade
22 September Mexico July Economic Activity
25 September Brazil August Balance of Payments
26 September Argentina July Economic Activity
27 September Mexico August Merchandise Trade
28 September Brazil September Economic Sentiment (E)
Mexico Central Bank Meeting
29 September Colombia Central Bank Meeting
Ecuador Q2 2023 National Accounts
1 October Chile September Business Confidence (E)
2 October Brazil September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Chile August Economic Activity
Colombia September Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
Mexico September IMEF PMI
4 October Brazil September S&P Global Services PMI
5 October Colombia September Consumer Prices
Colombia September Merchandise Trade (E)
Ecuador September Consumer Prices
Mexico September Consumer Confidence
Uruguay Central Bank Meeting
Uruguay September Consumer Prices
6 October Argentina August Industrial Production
Chile September Consumer Prices
Peru Central Bank Meeting
Peru September Consumer Prices
7 October Colombia September Consumer Confidence

(P) Preliminary estimate. (E) Approximate date.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 20

 Argentina September 2023

Argentina
Outlook deteriorates
Argentina

• The economy likely shrank significantly in Q2, buffeted by a destructive

drought, hyperinflation, FX restrictions, a plunging peso and rocketing
interest rates. GDP has likely continued to fall in Q3 due to the same
factors and heightened political uncertainty. Outsider libertarian candidate
Javier Milei surprisingly came first in 13 August primary elections for the
presidency, followed by the conservative opposition bloc and the ruling
Peronist party: The peso plunged following the results amid ensuing
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages political uncertainty. In recent weeks, the government decided to use a
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27 USD 7.5 billion disbursement from the IMF to repay part of a currency
Population (million): 45.4 46.8 48.2
swap with China, while it also announced a series of handouts for workers
GDP (USD bn): 440 603 811
GDP per capita (USD): 9,683 12,900 16,805 and pensioners and promised to exempt millions from income tax in a bid
GDP growth (%): -0.4 0.4 2.3 to shore up political support ahead of the 22 October elections.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.3 -3.6 -2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP): 91.4 86.7 74.8
Inflation (%): 48.0 116.3 52.0 • Argentina is poised to be Latin America’s worst-performing economy this
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.4 -0.7 0.3
External Debt (% of GDP) 62.6 46.2 36.5
year, rocked by FX controls, hyperinflation, drought and sky-high interest
rates. Higher visitor arrivals and rising energy output from the Vaca
Massimo Bassetti Muerta field will lend some support. Risks are skewed to the downside
Senior Economist and include a further collapse of the currency, debt default and political
instability. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 2.8% in
2023, which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts contracting 0.80% in 2024.

• Inflation dropped to 113.4% in July from 115.6% in June, which had marked
the highest rate in the current series. Inflation will surge this year relative
to 2022, stoked by a collapsing peso amid monetary financing of the
fiscal deficit. Faster-than-expected peso depreciation and fiscal largesse
ahead of the October elections are key upside risks. FocusEconomics
panelists see consumer prices rising 124.5% on average in 2023, which
is up by 8.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 152.0%
on average in 2024.
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.
• On 14 August, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) hiked the LELIQ
rate to 118.0% from 97.00% in a bid to support a plummeting peso.
The BCRA acts in coordination with the Ministry of Economy to reduce
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
monetary financing of the budget deficit. Rates are seen rising further
ahead to tame price pressures. FocusEconomics panelists see the 7-day
LELIQ rate ending 2023 at 138.04% and ending 2024 at 74.19%.

• The peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7 September, depreciating

19.1% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at ARS 720.00
per USD on 7 September, depreciating 17.2% month on month. On
14 August, the government devalued the official rate by nearly 18%,
mirroring a plunge in the parallel rate. The peso will continue to weaken
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024 ahead. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at ARS
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
564.93 per USD and ending 2024 at ARS 1115.75 per USD.
2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 21

 Argentina September 2023

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity decreases at softer pace in June

Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) slid 4.4% year on year in
June (May: -5.5% yoy). June’s softer drop was partly due to a softer fall in the
agriculture sector, although it still continued to contract at a pronounced rate.
Lastly, activity in the hotels and restaurants sector lost pace, while transport
and communications output contracted at a steeper pace than in the prior
month.

On a monthly basis, economic activity dropped 0.2% in June, easing from

May’s 0.6% fall. Meanwhile, annual average economic activity growth fell to
1.0% in June (May: +1.9%), which marked an over two-year low.

FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 2.8% in 2023, which is down

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and contracting 0.80% in 2024.
(Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica)
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC).
REAL SECTOR | Industrial output contracts at sharpest rate since
August 2020 in July
Industrial Production | variation in % Industrial production slid 3.9% year on year in July (June: -2.4% yoy). July’s
result marked the worst reading since August 2020. July’s figure was partly due
to a bigger drop in machinery and equipment output, which fell at the sharpest
pace since May 2020. In addition, basic metals production weakened. Lastly,
food and beverages production dropped at a sharper rate, while automotive
vehicles production dipped at a steeper pace than in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, industrial output dropped 1.2% in calendar adjusted terms

in July, easing from June’s 1.5% fall. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with
the annual average growth of industrial production coming in at 1.3% in July,
down from June’s 2.1% reading.

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of industrial production in %. FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production contracting 1.2% in
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
2023, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and flatlining
in 2024.

REAL SECTOR | Consumer confidence rises in August

The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index
Consumer Confidence
rose to 44.1 in August from 43.6 in July. Consequently, the index remained
entrenched below the 50-threshold that separates optimism from pessimism
among consumers.

Consumers’ expectations over the general economic conditions in the year

ahead improved. Additionally, they grew less pessimistic over their future
financial situations. However, their willingness to purchase big ticket items
weakened.

FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption contracting 1.5% in 2023,

which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and contracting
1.40% in 2024.
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate optimistic
consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate pessimistic sentiment.
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT). MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains in triple digits in July
Inflation came in at 113.4% in July, which was down from June’s 115.6%.
July’s result marked the weakest inflation rate since April, but was still one
of the highest rates globally and the second highest on the continent after
Venezuela’s.

Annual average inflation rose to 101.4% in July (June: 98.0%).

Lastly, consumer prices rose 6.34% in July over the previous month, picking
up from the 5.95% increase logged in June but below market expectations.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 22

 Argentina September 2023

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Looking ahead, inflation will accelerate further given the Central Bank devalued
the peso by roughly a fifth following the mid-August primary elections, with the
parallel-market peso weakening in tandem.

Itaú Unibanco analysts said:

“While a devaluation was largely expected in the context of the IMF-staff

level agreement, the timing and size had not been clear until now. According
to media reports, the central bank will try to keep the FX unchanged until
the presidential election on October 22. In our view, this goal is challenging
given the low level of international reserves and the expected acceleration in
inflation. The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly, and will likely
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %.
exceed our inflation forecast of 160% by December.”
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 124.5% on average in
2023, which is up by 8.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
152.0% on average in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Argentinian peso plummets following surprise

primary election outcome
Exchange Rate | ARS per USD The peso traded at ARS 350.03 per USD on 7 September, depreciating 19.1%
month on month. Meanwhile, the parallel market rate traded at ARS 720.00
per USD on 7 September, depreciating 17.2% month on month. This was due
to the Central Bank devaluing the peso by around 18% in the wake of the
13 August primary elections. Outsider libertarian candidate Javier Milei came
in first in the elections, gathering around 30% of the vote, followed by the
opposition center-right bloc Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) with 28% of the vote
and the ruling populist Peronist coalition with 27%. The peso has now lost over
half its value so far in 2023, with the monetary financing of the fiscal deficit,
plunging agricultural exports due to a devastating drought, and a chronic lack
of confidence piling further downward pressure on the currency this year.

Note: Official exchange rate vs the U.S dollar. The Central Bank’s devaluation was a response to a sell-off of Argentinian
Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
assets following Milei’s surprising breakthrough at the polls. Milei’s strong
electoral performance made the prospect of dollarization—his key policy
proposal to tackle inflation—more real, boosting the attractiveness of holding
dollars at the expense of peso-denominated assets. Evaporating international
reserves and heightened uncertainty about the outcome of the 22 October
presidential election and a possible default likely put further downward
pressure on the peso, and made the pre-primary-election rate of ARS 288 per
USD impossible to sustain.

Looking ahead, the Central Bank aims to maintain the current exchange rate
of around ARS 350 per USD until the elections. So far, it has achieved this,
though our panelists expect a sharp depreciation by year-end given the Bank’s
limited resources to sustain the fixed exchange rate for long. The currency is
then seen losing over half its value in 2024. This will feed through to triple-digit
inflation this year and next.

Argentina’s economic situation is further complicated by a decision taken by

a U.S. court on 8 September to deem the country liable to pay damages of
about USD 16 billion to minority shareholders of previously-nationalized oil
and gas company YPF. Although the government will appeal the decision, the
court ruling only adds to concerns over the country’s fiscal solvency and could
put downward pressure on the currency ahead.

Commenting on the FX outlook, analysts at the EIU said:

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 23

 Argentina September 2023

“Once in power, we expect that the next government will move quickly to lift
many currency controls, causing significant peso devaluation in December-
January. Depreciation pressures will ease after this maxi-devaluation as the
gap with the black-market rate narrows and the real exchange rate weakens
to a more competitive level. There is a growing risk of dollarisation or the
establishment of a bi-monetary system.”

FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at ARS 564.93 per USD
and ending 2024 at ARS 1115.75 per USD.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports slide at a more moderate

rate in July
Merchandise Trade Merchandise exports shrank 22.4% over the same month last year in July
(June: -35.8% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports dived 19.1%
in annual terms in July (June: -16.3% yoy), marking the weakest reading since
December 2022.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous

month, recording a USD 0.6 billion deficit in July (June 2023: USD 1.8 billion
deficit; July 2022: USD 0.5 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 0.7 billion
deficit in July, compared to the USD 0.5 billion deficit in June.

FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports falling 18.1% in 2023,

Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports which is down by 0.9 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 16.0%
in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
in 2024.
calculations.
Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 10.7% in 2023, which is up by
0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and falling 1.50% in 2024.

Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 0.3 billion in 2023 and a trade surplus
of USD 12.4 billion in 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 24

 Argentina September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 44.5 44.9 45.4 45.8 46.3 46.8 47.2 47.7 48.2 48.7
GDP per capita (USD) 11,800 9,942 8,483 10,625 13,606 13,055 12,039 14,057 16,001 20,357
GDP (USD bn) 525 447 385 487 630 610 569 671 771 991
GDP (ARS bn) 14,745 21,558 27,210 46,346 82,436 181,380 521,596 879,064 1.35 mn 2.20 mn
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 38.3 46.2 26.2 70.3 77.9 120.0 187.6 68.5 53.7 63.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -2.6 -2.0 -9.9 10.7 5.0 -2.8 -0.8 2.4 2.3 2.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -3.7 -8.7 -9.9 13.3 7.8 -2.3 -1.4 3.3 3.1 3.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.2 -6.1 -12.2 10.4 9.7 -1.5 -1.4 3.3 2.7 2.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.9 -6.4 -2.0 6.3 1.9 0.0 -0.9 0.8 2.2 1.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -5.7 -16.0 -13.1 33.8 11.1 -6.2 -2.1 5.6 4.9 5.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.6 9.8 -17.4 8.5 5.8 -8.1 6.7 5.8 4.8 5.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -4.5 -18.7 -17.2 20.4 17.9 -5.2 -0.2 4.7 5.1 5.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -5.0 -6.3 -7.5 15.7 4.2 -1.2 0.0 2.6 3.0 2.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.2 9.8 11.5 8.8 6.8 7.7 8.6 8.1 8.0 7.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -3.8 -8.4 -3.6 -3.8 -4.4 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 85.2 89.8 103.9 80.6 85.2 90.7 84.1 78.2 71.8 74.4
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 22.8 29.0 78.9 59.5 67.6 109.4 129.3 70.5 36.3 28.8
Monetary Base (ann. var. %) 40.7 34.5 30.3 47.9 42.4 92.3 181.6 98.0 - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 47.6 53.8 36.1 50.9 94.8 163.0 121.6 59.1 39.9 25.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 34.3 53.5 42.0 48.4 72.4 124.5 152.0 74.5 46.3 35.3
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 59.25 55.00 38.00 38.00 75.00 138.04 74.19 50.95 32.65 20.17
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 48.25 39.44 34.25 34.19 68.81 133.30 63.71 40.22 22.77 13.98
Stock Market (ann. var. of MERVAL %) 0.7 37.6 22.9 63.0 142.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 37.7 59.9 84.1 102.7 177.1 565 1116 1,506 1,999 2,451
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 28.1 48.3 70.7 95.2 130.9 297 917 1,311 1,753 2,225
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.2 -0.8 0.7 1.4 -0.7 -1.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -27.1 -3.5 2.7 6.6 -4.3 -11.4 3.2 3.1 1.0 3.6
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.7 16.0 12.5 14.8 6.9 -0.3 12.4 9.7 6.3 2.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 61.8 65.1 54.9 77.9 88.4 72.4 84.0 87.8 88.2 91.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 65.5 49.1 42.4 63.2 81.5 72.8 71.6 78.1 81.9 89.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 5.3 5.4 -15.7 42.0 13.5 -18.1 16.0 4.5 0.4 3.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.2 -25.0 -13.8 49.2 29.0 -10.7 -1.5 9.0 4.9 8.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 11.7 6.6 4.7 6.8 15.1 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 65.8 44.8 39.4 39.7 44.6 28.8 35.4 39.5 43.5 43.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 12.1 11.0 11.2 7.5 6.6 4.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 5.9
External Debt (USD bn) 278 278 271 268 276 273 284 283 289 296
External Debt (% of GDP) 52.9 62.3 70.5 55.0 43.9 44.8 50.0 42.2 37.5 29.9
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.7 1.5 1.3 -3.8 -4.6 -4.3 -5.5 -2.2 0.0 2.6
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.8 -1.7 0.7 -2.8 -1.3 -1.6 -0.8 0.8 1.3 1.5
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 11.4 -0.1 3.1 -0.9 -3.8 -4.2 -5.8 -3.7 0.1 3.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 11.6 5.9 6.0 -1.2 -2.5 -3.6 -6.4 -3.4 -0.3 2.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.4 -2.3 1.6 -0.6 0.7 -0.2 -2.5 -2.3 -1.8 -0.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 14.8 0.0 -0.6 -7.3 -9.2 -5.9 -9.3 -5.1 2.2 6.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.4 0.2 2.6 0.1 -4.2 -1.6 -3.6 -2.5 0.3 1.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.1 6.3 6.9 7.7 7.9 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 83.0 94.8 104.3 115.6 133.2 173.1 208.2 203.6 166.9 121.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 77.6 91.8 102.0 113.0 123.2 148.5 187.0 185.4 164.6 126.5
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 75.00 75.00 78.00 97.00 119.54 139.31 131.38 106.38 91.38 82.85
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 69.13 68.81 72.44 92.25 114.33 127.46 125.09 97.50 82.06 75.96
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 147 177 209 257 346 578 794 936 1,054 1,193
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 136 162 193 232 301 462 686 865 995 1,123
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 1.1 -3.7 37.3 51.4 93.0 124.4 138.3 158.6 176.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.5 1.7 -5.6 56.9 73.6 108.5 126.6 144.8 184.0 222.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.4 4.3 -1.3 -3.2 0.3 2.6 1.9 3.0 1.9 3.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22.9 21.2 15.9 17.6 18.7 18.4 17.3 21.1 21.0 20.1
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 23.3 16.9 17.2 20.7 18.5 15.8 15.4 18.2 19.1 16.9
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %) 2.2 -1.6 2.7 0.0 1.3 -4.4 -5.5 -4.4 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.5 -3.1 6.3 -1.7 3.4 1.7 1.1 -2.4 -3.9 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 35.2 35.9 38.5 36.2 38.2 37.1 38.3 41.8 43.6 44.1
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 4.92 5.12 6.03 6.63 7.68 8.40 7.77 5.95 6.34 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 92.4 94.8 98.8 102.5 104.3 108.8 114.2 115.6 113.4 -
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 167 177 187 197 209 223 240 257 275 350
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.4 1.1 -0.4 0.2 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1 -1.8 -0.6 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 15.0 -7.1 -11.2 -18.8 -22.0 -29.3 -24.1 -35.8 -22.4 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -0.1 -19.3 2.2 -10.7 -3.3 -11.5 -6.3 -16.3 -19.1 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 38.0 44.6 41.4 38.7 39.1 35.0 33.0 27.9 24.1 27.8

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 25

 Argentina September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
ABECEB -3.0 0.5
Alphacast -3.5 -
Analytica Consultora -2.7 -
Aurum Valores -3.2 1.2
Banco de Galicia -3.2 -1.2
Banco Supervielle -3.3 -2.7
BancTrust & Co. -3.5 -1.8
Barclays Capital -3.0 -4.5
BBVA Argentina -3.5 -2.0
C&T Asesores -3.1 -1.4
Capital Economics -3.5 -2.0
Credicorp Capital -3.7 -1.2
DekaBank -2.2 0.1
Eco Go -3.3 -2.5
Ecolatina -2.5 -2.9
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts Econométrica S.A. -2.8 -
Econosignal -3.0 1.0
Econviews -3.5 -0.5
EIU -2.8 -2.1
EmergingMarketWatch -2.5 -3.0
EMFI -4.5 -1.2
Empiria Consultores -3.3 -2.7
Equilibra -3.0 -2.5
Euromonitor Int. -2.7 -0.3
FIEL -2.0 -
Fitch Solutions -2.3 0.5
FMyA -3.3 -2.8
FrontierView -2.0 -1.2
Goldman Sachs -2.1 0.0
HSBC -2.5 -0.5
Invecq Consulting -3.5 0.0
Itaú Unibanco -3.0 -2.5
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution JPMorgan -3.3 -1.7
Kiel Institute -2.6 -1.8
LCG -3.4 -6.3
MAP -3.5 -3.0
MAPFRE Economics -1.5 0.2
OJF & Asociados -3.2 -0.1
Oxford Economics -2.0 0.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics -2.3 -1.0
Pezco Economics -2.4 0.0
Quantum Finanzas -3.5 2.0
S&P Global Ratings -2.0 0.5
Santander -4.0 -
Standard Chartered -1.6 2.7
Torino Capital -1.9 -
UBS -1.8 1.6
UIA - CEU -3.5 -
VDC Consultora -2.4 -0.3
Others (5)** -2.5 0.5
Public Forecasts
Notes and sources CEPAL -3.0 -1.6
OECD -1.6 1.1
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. World Bank -2.0 2.3
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist
Summary
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. Minimum -4.5 -6.3
Maximum -1.2 2.7
General: Median -3.0 -0.7
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
Consensus -2.8 -0.8
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus History
Forecast. The Consensus Forecast for domestic demand contains a range of definitions. 30 days ago -2.5 -0.3
1 GDP, annual variation in %. 60 days ago -2.5 -0.2
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
90 days ago -2.4 0.1
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 26

 Argentina September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABECEB -0.8 1.5 -3.8 7.0
Analytica Consultora 0.9 - -8.1 -
Banco de Galicia -2.1 - -8.8 -
Banco Supervielle -4.3 -4.6 -10.0 -4.0
BancTrust & Co. -0.9 -3.0 -5.4 -2.7
Barclays Capital - - -4.5 -26.5
BBVA Argentina 1.7 -2.2 -10.2 5.1
Capital Economics 1.0 -4.3 -4.9 -4.7
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.9 1.2 -8.4 0.0
Credicorp Capital -4.2 -0.7 -8.6 -7.5
Eco Go -1.2 -4.8 -6.1 -6.4
Ecolatina -0.7 -3.1 -3.6 -5.0
Econométrica S.A. -3.0 - -5.0 -
Econviews -3.3 -0.4 -9.8 5.5 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
EIU -2.0 -4.9 -8.7 -2.2
Empiria Consultores 1.9 -2.8 -6.5 -9.1
Euromonitor Int. -0.4 0.2 - -
FIEL -2.7 - -7.5 -
Fitch Solutions -2.3 -0.7 -4.0 1.0
FMyA 1.0 -4.4 -6.0 -1.2
FrontierView -1.9 -2.4 - -
Goldman Sachs 4.5 1.3 -0.8 1.3
HSBC 0.9 0.0 -9.5 -1.5
Invecq Consulting -3.5 - -11.0 -
LCG -1.8 - -4.0 -
MAPFRE Economics -2.7 -0.4 -8.4 -1.6
Moody's Analytics 0.2 -1.4 -4.9 -1.3
OJF & Asociados -2.5 -0.8 -0.1 1.8
Oxford Economics -1.3 -3.4 -7.3 -4.8
Pezco Economics -3.8 0.0 -8.0 0.0
Quantum Finanzas -2.4 0.8 1.7 1.6 8 | Investment | variation in %
S&P Global Ratings -3.6 0.4 - -
Torino Capital -2.6 - -4.0 -
UBS -1.8 1.1 -4.5 1.0
Public Forecasts
OECD -1.8 1.2 -6.7 0.9
Summary
Minimum -4.3 -4.9 -11.0 -26.5
Maximum 4.5 1.5 1.7 7.0
Median -1.9 -0.7 -6.3 -1.3
Consensus -1.5 -1.4 -6.2 -2.1
History
30 days ago -1.2 -0.5 -5.6 0.1
60 days ago -1.5 -0.4 -6.1 0.4
90 days ago -2.4 0.1 -6.1 0.9

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 27

 Argentina September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABECEB -0.4 1.1 8.3 9.3
Banco de Galicia -3.2 - 7.8 -
Banco Supervielle - - 7.6 8.1
BancTrust & Co. -1.2 -2.9 - -
BBVA Argentina - - 7.7 9.5
Capital Economics 0.6 1.0 8.0 9.0
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 8.1 9.2
Credicorp Capital - - 7.8 8.3
Eco Go - - 7.5 8.6
Ecolatina - - 7.5 8.6
Econométrica S.A. -2.7 - 7.3 -
Econviews - - 7.3 8.0
EIU -2.2 -0.3 7.5 9.0
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Empiria Consultores 1.0 - 8.3 9.2
Equilibra - - 7.4 8.4
Euromonitor Int. 0.2 0.7 7.8 8.2
FIEL - - 7.0 -
Fitch Ratings - - 7.5 9.5
Fitch Solutions - - 7.4 8.4
FrontierView -0.5 -0.3 8.1 9.4
HSBC -3.2 -1.1 7.2 7.3
Invecq Consulting - - 7.5 8.0
LCG -2.2 - 7.9 8.1
MAP -2.7 -1.6 8.0 9.0
Moody's Analytics 0.8 0.4 - -
OJF & Asociados -1.4 0.5 7.0 7.6
Oxford Economics -0.5 -0.1 7.7 8.2
Pezco Economics -1.9 0.0 8.1 8.8
Quantum Finanzas - - 8.5 8.3
S&P Global Ratings - - 8.5 9.0 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Torino Capital - - 6.8 -
UBS 0.5 2.0 7.5 8.0
UIA - CEU -3.0 - - -
VDC Consultora -1.1 0.7 - -
Summary
Minimum -3.2 -2.9 6.8 7.3
Maximum 1.0 2.0 8.5 9.5
Median -1.2 0.2 7.6 8.5
Consensus -1.2 0.0 7.7 8.6
History
30 days ago -1.4 0.6 7.7 8.4
60 days ago -1.7 0.6 7.8 8.5
90 days ago -1.9 0.9 7.9 8.5

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 28

 Argentina September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt

% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABECEB -4.3 -2.8 83.8 80.7
Alphacast -5.4 - - -
Analytica Consultora -4.6 - - -
Aurum Valores -5.3 -2.5 - -
Banco de Galicia -4.6 -2.1 - -
Banco Supervielle -4.1 -1.6 - -
BancTrust & Co. -4.8 -2.4 - -
Barclays Capital -3.2 -1.7 - -
BBVA Argentina -4.6 -3.2 - -
Capital Economics -4.9 -3.7 100.8 67.2
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.9 -2.0 - -
Credicorp Capital -4.7 -3.1 92.8 76.9
DekaBank -4.2 -3.0 - -
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
Eco Go -4.0 -2.1 - -
Ecolatina -4.0 -2.8 - -
Econométrica S.A. -4.1 - - -
Econviews -4.6 -2.0 - -
EIU -4.2 -2.2 120.8 95.3
EMFI -4.7 - - -
Empiria Consultores -3.9 -1.1 - -
Equilibra -4.2 -1.9 - -
Fitch Ratings -5.6 -3.8 92.1 101.5
Fitch Solutions -3.9 -2.2 86.2 83.4
FMyA -4.8 -1.9 - -
Goldman Sachs -4.5 -5.0 93.9 90.6
HSBC -4.3 -1.9 - -
Invecq Consulting -4.6 -1.0 80.0 -
JPMorgan -5.2 -2.0 - -
LCG -3.9 -2.5 - -
MAP -4.1 -1.0 88.2 83.3 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
MAPFRE Economics -3.8 -2.9 - -
Moody's Analytics - - 86.9 80.7
OJF & Asociados -4.3 -4.7 - -
Oxford Economics -4.1 -3.9 - -
Pezco Economics -5.3 -3.0 85.0 81.6
Torino Capital - - 78.0 -
UBS -4.0 -3.4 - -
Summary
Minimum -5.6 -5.0 78.0 67.2
Maximum -3.2 -1.0 120.8 101.5
Median -4.3 -2.4 87.5 82.5
Consensus -4.4 -2.6 90.7 84.1
History
30 days ago -4.4 -2.6 88.2 83.3
60 days ago -4.5 -2.6 85.2 82.1
90 days ago -4.5 -2.8 82.5 77.8
17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Economy. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance % of GDP.

15 Fical balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 29

 Argentina September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices

variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABECEB 143.8 115.8 121.5 137.2
Alphacast 189.8 - 170.6 -
Analytica Consultora 178.7 - 129.1 -
Aurum Valores 171.0 86.0 - -
Banco de Galicia 198.1 106.3 133.5 203.4
Banco Supervielle 169.8 168.4 127.3 217.6
BancTrust & Co. 184.6 148.3 130.1 205.5
Barclays Capital 155.0 115.0 125.5 164.3
BBVA Argentina 200.0 155.0 134.5 233.9
C&T Asesores 162.4 125.3 - -
Capital Economics 144.3 142.2 125.0 155.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 160.0 120.0 125.0 155.2
Credicorp Capital 162.6 131.6 - -
15 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
DekaBank - - 116.1 112.9
Eco Go 225.7 101.9 129.6 221.2
Ecolatina 161.5 161.0 124.5 197.4
Econométrica S.A. 114.9 - 105.4 -
Econosignal 171.3 130.0 137.7 153.0
Econviews 180.0 150.0 129.1 229.2
EIU 184.5 66.4 129.9 139.5
EmergingMarketWatch 150.0 200.0 - -
EMFI 180.5 147.6 128.7 172.5
Empiria Consultores 171.4 146.3 129.0 200.6
Equilibra 180.0 155.0 128.5 228.0
Euromonitor Int. - - 95.9 59.4
FIEL 186.6 - 136.2 -
Fitch Solutions 145.0 45.0 120.0 109.8
FMyA 203.8 102.1 131.7 190.5
FrontierView - - 114.2 101.0
Goldman Sachs 140.0 93.2 120.2 117.6 16 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
HSBC 152.1 120.0 122.4 142.6
Invecq Consulting 120.0 210.0 167.0 -
JPMorgan 145.0 95.0 120.1 149.9
Kiel Institute 140.0 150.0 124.6 150.0
LCG 195.8 101.9 129.3 183.5
MAP 169.3 104.3 125.6 164.5
MAPFRE Economics 131.8 70.6 119.6 97.9
Moody's Analytics 131.3 100.4 118.1 116.6
OJF & Asociados 168.4 174.1 127.5 192.1
Oxford Economics 145.8 83.7 116.7 126.2
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 115.0 100.0
Pezco Economics 126.3 122.0 110.6 124.2
Quantum Finanzas 191.0 83.0 127.0 182.0
S&P Global Ratings 145.0 100.0 121.1 124.9
Santander 182.4 - - -
Standard Chartered - - 126.5 134.3
Torino Capital 107.8 - 108.7 - 17 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
UBS 140.9 112.7 118.8 128.7
VDC Consultora 167.3 110.8 126.9 150.7
Others (4)** 160.0 90.0 115.1 106.8
Summary
Minimum 107.8 45.0 95.9 59.4
Maximum 225.7 210.0 170.6 233.9
Median 162.6 115.8 125.0 150.0
Consensus 163.0 121.6 124.5 152.0
History
30 days ago 138.0 113.4 116.1 130.3
60 days ago 139.2 114.3 116.0 129.1
90 days ago 134.9 111.6 112.1 120.8

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 30

 Argentina September 2023

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

18 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
ABECEB 125.00 77.00
Alphacast 120.00 -
Analytica Consultora 125.00 -
Banco de Galicia 160.00 40.00
Banco Supervielle 139.00 76.00
BancTrust & Co. 175.00 65.00
BBVA Argentina 138.00 60.00
Capital Economics 150.00 140.00
Citigroup Global Mkts 150.00 60.00
Credicorp Capital 141.00 98.00
Eco Go 140.00 40.00
Ecolatina 130.00 100.00
Econosignal 118.00 90.00
Econviews 130.00 40.00
EIU 135.00 75.00
20 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst Empiria Consultores 122.00 -
Equilibra 175.00 28.10
Fitch Solutions 140.00 50.00
FMyA 130.00 85.00
HSBC 118.00 65.00
Invecq Consulting 120.00 -
LCG 135.00 -
MAP 138.00 80.00
OJF & Asociados 123.00 131.00
Oxford Economics 118.00 118.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 125.00 80.00
Quantum Finanzas 205.00 34.00
Santander 140.00 -
Summary
Minimum 118.00 28.10
Maximum 205.00 140.00
Median 135.00 75.50
22 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution Consensus 138.04 74.19
History
30 days ago 107.42 74.90
60 days ago 107.91 75.83
90 days ago 104.77 77.50

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the The Central Bank of the
Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República Argentina) and the National Statistical
Institute and the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la ciudad
autónoma de Buenos Aires). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop). Source: INDEC.

15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
18 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop). Source: BCRA.
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 31

 Argentina September 2023

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
ABECEB 482 1,062
Alphacast 496 -
Analytica Consultora 542 -
Aurum Valores 750 1,100
Banco de Galicia 641 1,117
Banco Supervielle 515 1,488
BancTrust & Co. 563 1,366
Barclays Capital 490 1,120
BBVA Argentina 630 1,493
C&T Asesores 630 1,066
Capital Economics 400 600
Citigroup Global Mkts 525 1,050
Credicorp Capital 566 1,010
Eco Go 936 1,368
Ecolatina 465 1,318
25 | ARS per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst 26 | ARS per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst Econosignal 548 1,250
Econviews 754 1,508
EIU 587 960
EMFI 417 899
Empiria Consultores 487 1,090
Equilibra 585 1,400
FIEL 612 -
Fitch Ratings 425 1,127
Fitch Solutions 700 1,200
FMyA 672 1,101
HSBC 400 -
Invecq Consulting 640 -
Itaú Unibanco 615 1,100
JPMorgan 750 -
LCG 705 1,223
MAP 655 1,059
MAPFRE Economics 383 638
27 | ARS per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution OJF & Asociados 507 1,784
Oxford Economics 509 959
Pezco Economics 444 567
Quantum Finanzas 705 1,300
S&P Global Ratings 415 800
Santander 529 -
Standard Chartered 490 745
UBS 430 850
VDC Consultora 567 1,217
Summary
Minimum 383 567
Maximum 936 1,784
Median 548 1,100
Consensus 565 1,116
History
30 days ago 458 922
60 days ago 452 924
90 days ago 428 889

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

23 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).

24 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 32

 Argentina September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 28 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABECEB -3.1 - -3.4 9.2
Alphacast - - 8.5 -
Analytica Consultora -1.8 - - -
Banco de Galicia -2.0 - -0.3 17.7
Banco Supervielle -1.4 2.2 -2.3 25.2
BancTrust & Co. -3.6 0.7 -6.7 10.2
Barclays Capital -2.9 4.9 - -
BBVA Argentina -3.6 -1.3 -6.0 9.0
Capital Economics -0.8 0.3 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.2 1.0 - -
Credicorp Capital -2.2 0.3 - -
DekaBank -2.3 -1.7 - -
Eco Go -2.5 3.6 0.5 15.4
Ecolatina -2.3 0.6 -1.0 12.9 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Econométrica S.A. -0.3 - 6.9 -
Econosignal -0.3 1.5 -3.7 9.2
Econviews -3.1 3.1 -2.8 24.4
EIU -2.8 -1.0 - -
EMFI -2.0 - - -
Empiria Consultores -1.7 - 4.8 18.0
Equilibra -1.1 3.4 -1.0 21.0
Euromonitor Int. -1.7 -2.6 -2.4 -0.3
FIEL -1.7 0.1 -2.5 8.4
Fitch Ratings -2.8 0.8 - -
Fitch Solutions -2.0 -0.2 - -
FMyA 0.2 0.2 -4.9 12.9
Goldman Sachs -2.3 -1.3 - -
HSBC -3.0 -2.6 1.0 5.5
Invecq Consulting -1.5 2.0 -3.3 -
JPMorgan -2.8 -0.8 - -
LCG -2.5 - -1.8 11.6 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
MAP -1.1 0.2 -2.0 14.0
MAPFRE Economics 1.8 1.6 - -
Moody's Analytics -3.0 -2.2 - -
OJF & Asociados -2.7 3.2 -3.9 22.4
Oxford Economics -2.5 1.9 - -
Pezco Economics -2.3 -1.4 4.8 6.6
Quantum Finanzas -2.3 1.5 -2.0 8.0
Standard Chartered -0.4 0.5 - -
Torino Capital -1.2 - - -
UBS -1.7 -0.4 - -
Public Forecasts
OECD 0.0 0.2 - -
Summary
Minimum -3.6 -2.6 -6.7 -0.3
Maximum 1.8 4.9 8.5 25.2
Median -2.0 0.3 -2.0 12.2
Consensus -1.9 0.6 -0.3 12.4 31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
History
30 days ago -1.8 0.0 0.5 12.2
60 days ago -1.1 0.2 2.8 8.8
90 days ago -0.9 0.2 4.7 11.1

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions.
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 33

 Argentina September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 32 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABECEB 70.1 83.5 73.5 74.2
Alphacast 86.6 - 78.1 -
Analytica Consultora 66.6 - - -
Banco de Galicia 70.3 85.5 70.6 67.8
Banco Supervielle 68.7 81.7 71.0 56.5
BancTrust & Co. 67.6 80.9 74.3 70.7
BBVA Argentina 66.9 80.3 72.9 71.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 70.8 88.5 - -
Eco Go 71.8 82.0 71.3 66.5
Ecolatina 70.0 86.0 71.0 73.1
Econométrica S.A. 78.4 - 71.5 -
Econosignal 71.3 86.2 75.0 77.0
Econviews 68.1 91.2 70.9 66.8
EIU 71.0 83.1 - - 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
EMFI 76.8 - 75.4 -
Empiria Consultores 72.0 84.9 67.1 66.9
Equilibra 69.0 88.5 70.0 67.5
Euromonitor Int. 77.1 84.1 79.5 84.4
FIEL 75.0 83.8 77.5 75.4
Fitch Ratings 75.2 90.3 - -
FMyA 67.7 84.5 72.6 71.6
Goldman Sachs 68.1 78.3 - -
HSBC 69.3 77.0 68.2 71.5
Invecq Consulting 71.1 - 74.4 -
LCG 66.5 82.6 68.3 71.0
MAP 69.8 85.4 71.7 71.4
OJF & Asociados 69.0 91.0 72.9 68.6
Oxford Economics 72.0 67.3 - -
Pezco Economics 82.2 87.1 77.4 80.5
Quantum Finanzas 69.0 88.0 71.0 80.0
Torino Capital 94.9 - - -
34 | Imports | variation in %
UBS 74.7 82.7 - -
Summary
Minimum 66.5 67.3 67.1 56.5
Maximum 94.9 91.2 79.5 84.4
Median 70.5 84.3 72.2 71.3
Consensus 72.4 84.0 72.8 71.6
History
30 days ago 73.2 84.7 72.7 72.5
60 days ago 74.8 82.7 72.0 73.9
90 days ago 76.0 85.8 71.3 74.7

35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Exports, annual variation in %.
33 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Imports, annual variation in %.
35 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 34

 Argentina September 2023

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

International Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABECEB 24.9 34.0 - -
Banco de Galicia 24.8 - - -
Banco Supervielle 23.4 35.2 - -
BancTrust & Co. 22.2 26.2 - -
Barclays Capital - - 275 283
Citigroup Global Mkts 30.0 38.0 272 274
Credicorp Capital 20.9 42.1 - -
Eco Go 31.4 44.9 - -
Econométrica S.A. 40.0 - - -
Econviews 29.0 36.5 - -
EIU 32.7 30.2 - -
Equilibra 20.0 37.0 - -
Euromonitor Int. 30.1 33.1 - -
FIEL - - 273 290 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Fitch Ratings 27.2 34.0 - -
Fitch Solutions 20.8 19.8 280 293
FMyA 29.4 27.0 - -
Goldman Sachs 33.9 39.5 - -
HSBC - - 281 311
Invecq Consulting - - 260 -
JPMorgan 37.4 45.4 - -
LCG 28.0 32.0 - -
MAP 32.2 52.1 274 277
Moody's Analytics 29.6 33.5 - -
OJF & Asociados 27.5 35.2 - -
Oxford Economics - - 266 263
Quantum Finanzas 30.0 40.0 - -
Torino Capital 41.0 - 271 -
UBS 25.0 27.5 282 282
Summary
Minimum 20.0 19.8 260 263
38 | External Debt | % of GDP
Maximum 41.0 52.1 282 311
Median 29.2 35.2 274 283
Consensus 28.8 35.4 273 284
History
30 days ago 32.2 37.9 274 277
60 days ago 34.9 41.1 275 278
90 days ago 37.3 43.2 276 278

39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 International reserves, months of imports.
37 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 External debt as % of GDP.
39 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 35

 Argentina September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Argentina in the Region

Official name: Argentine Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Buenos Aires (15.1 m)
Other cities: Córdoba (1.6 m)
Rosario (1.4 m)
Area (km2): 2,780,400
Population (million, 2019 est.): 45.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 16.5
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.8
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 0.9
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-3

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 22.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 132
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 75.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 19.1

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,157
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,868
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 138
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 125
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 678
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 752
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 200

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 1,138
Railways (km): 36,917
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 281,290
Waterways (km): 11,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca

Political Data
President: Alberto Fernández
Last elections: 27 October 2019
Next elections: 23 October 2023
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Miguel Ángel Pesce

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Ca Stable
S&P Global Ratings: CCC- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: C -

Strengths Weaknesses

• Rich in natural resources • High fiscal deficit

• Large producer of agricultural • External debt repayment risks
Exports Imports
commodities • Runaway inflation
• Diversified industrial base • Extreme currency weakness
• Interventionist policies
• Highly-taxed country
.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 36

 Brazil September 2023

Brazil
Outlook improves
Brazil

• The economy defied market expectations in Q2, with both quarter-on-

quarter and annual GDP growth markedly overshooting projections. That
said, sequential growth slowed from Q1, partly due to a base effect and the
cumulative 1,175 basis points of Central Bank hikes cooling the economy.
From the production point of view, Q2’s slowdown was chiefly due to
the agricultural sector declining amid the base effect from Q1’s record
harvest. Regarding expenditure, private spending growth accelerated
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages in Q2, supported by softer price pressures, a falling unemployment
rate and fiscal stimulus—such as increases in minimum wages and the
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
Population (million): 212 215 219 Bolsa Família welfare program. In Q3, the economy should be stable in
GDP (USD bn): 1,666 2,095 2,480 sequential terms. That said, in early September, a cyclone hit the south
GDP per capita (USD): 7,881 9,736 11,302
of the country, causing heavy flooding and likely hampering activity at the
GDP growth (%): 1.0 2.3 2.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.8 -6.4 -5.8 tail-end of Q3.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 79.9 76.2 83.4
Inflation (%): 5.1 6.1 3.6 • Our panelists have once again upgraded their 2023 GDP forecasts
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.8 -2.4 -2.4
External Debt (% of GDP): 19.3 15.6 -
over the last month, likely due to a stronger-than-anticipated economic
expansion in Q2. Growth is now seen slowing only slightly from 2022
Marta Casanovas
this year as lower interest rates, softer inflation, fiscal stimulus, a lower
Economist
unemployment rate and a bumper harvest will all support activity.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2023, which is
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts up by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.4%
in 2024.

• In July, inflation rose to a three-month high of 4.0% (June: 3.2%),

surpassing the Central Bank (BCB)’s 3.25% target for this year and
overshooting market expectations. Inflation will pick up in the remainder of
2023 from current levels due to lower interest rates, a weaker real, fiscal
stimulus and higher fuel prices—with the latter partly due to the recent
reinstatement of a federal tax. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer
prices rising 4.8% on average in 2023, which is down by 0.2 percentage
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 points from one month ago, and rising 4.2% on average in 2024.
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.

• At its latest meeting on 1–2 August, the BCB kicked off its loosening cycle
more aggressively than markets had anticipated, delivering a 50 basis
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
point cut that lowered the SELIC rate to 13.25%. The Bank hinted it would
make a same-size cut when it next convenes on 19–20 September. Our
panelists see between 25–200 basis points of additional cuts by year-end.
FocusEconomics panelists see the SELIC rate ending 2023 at 11.83%
and ending 2024 at 9.08%.

• The real traded at BRL 4.98 per USD on 7 September, depreciating

1.4% month on month. The real’s weakening was likely limited by GDP
growth in Q2 overshooting expectations. Going ahead, the currency
is expected to end the year close to its current value, but a dwindling
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months. interest rate differential compared to the U.S. Fed is a depreciatory risk.
2024.
FocusEconomics panelists see the real ending 2023 at BRL 4.95 per USD
and ending 2024 at BRL 5.08 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 37

 Brazil September 2023

REAL SECTOR | GDP growth slows in Q2

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP growth slowed to 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis
in the second quarter, down from 1.8% in the first quarter; the cumulative 1,175
basis points in Central Bank hikes from March 2021 to August 2022 succeeded
in cooling the economy. Despite the slowdown, the result outperformed market
expectations: Market analysts had anticipated a 0.3% increase.

The quarterly slowdown was largely due to the external sector detracting from
overall growth. More positively, there was a broad-based improvement on the
domestic front: Household spending growth edged up to 0.9% seasonally
adjusted quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter (Q1: +0.7% s.a. qoq),
marking the best reading in a year. The acceleration was largely supported
by softer price pressures in Q2, a fall in the unemployment rate (Q2: 8.3%;
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on- Q1: 8.6%) and fiscal stimulus under the new administration. That said, still-
year variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus elevated interest rates likely capped the overall improvement. Moreover,
Consensus Forecast.
government spending accelerated to a 0.7% increase in Q2 (Q1: +0.4% s.a.
qoq) and fixed investment rebounded, growing 0.1% in Q2, contrasting the
3.4% decrease recorded in the prior quarter.

Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services increased 2.9% on
a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the second quarter, which was above
the first quarter’s 0.3% expansion. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services
bounced back, growing 4.5% in Q2 (Q1: -3.9% s.a. qoq). Consequently, the
external sector detracted from overall growth.

On an annual basis, economic growth moderated to 3.4% in Q2, following the

previous period’s 4.0% increase. Despite the moderation, the result surprised
markets on the upside as market analysts had penciled in a 2.7% year-on-
year expansion.

FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2023, which is up

by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.4% in 2024.

REAL SECTOR | Activity returns to growth in June

The Brazilian economy ended the second quarter on a sweeter note: Activity
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % returned to growth and posted a 0.6% month-on-month seasonally adjusted
expansion in June. The upturn, which was an improvement from May’s
whopping 2.1% monthly contraction, marginally overshot market expectations.

On an annual basis, economic activity growth eased to 2.1% in June, down

from May’s 2.3% year-on-year increase. Accordingly, the trend pointed down,
with annual average growth in economic activity coming in at 3.4% in June,
down from May’s 3.5% reading.

Meanwhile, retail sales flatlined in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms

in June, improving from the 0.7% decline tallied in May. Conversely, industrial
output contracted 0.6% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms in July,
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de deteriorating from the prior month’s flat reading.
Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and year-on-year changes in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
REAL SECTOR | Services sector conditions improve in August
The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6
in August, up from the prior month’s 50.2. As such, the index moved further
above the 50.0 no-change threshold, signaling a stronger improvement in
services sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.

August’s upturn chiefly reflected new orders expanding at a quicker rate than
in the prior month. This, coupled with contracts in the pipeline and improved
sales expectations for the year ahead, prompted firms to onboard staff, with
the job creation rate accelerating from July.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 38

 Brazil September 2023

Services Purchasing Managers’ Index Turning to prices, while input cost inflation was among the weakest in the
past three years, it accelerated in August from July due to higher energy,
fuel, water and insurance prices, as well as rising wage costs and exchange
rate movements. Still, selling prices rose at the slowest pace since November
2020. Lastly, firms’ sentiment rose to a 10-month high in August due to the
kickoff of the Central Bank’s loosening monetary policy cycle and expectations
of higher sales in the coming year.

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing conditions improve for the first time in

10 months in August
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a
10-month high of 50.1 in August, up from July’s 47.8. As such, the index broke
Note: S&P Global Brazil Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading through the 50.0 no-change threshold; the index had been below the threshold
above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous month, while a
value below 50 indicates an overall decrease. for the prior nine months. This signaled an improvement in manufacturing
Source: S&P Global.
sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
August’s upturn came on the back of factory orders expanding for the first
time in ten months amid improving domestic demand. Consequently, output
grew in the month following nine consecutive months of declines. As a result,
firms onboarded staff, with employment rising for the first time since October
2022. Meanwhile, vendor performance improved at one of the strongest rates
in over 17 years. Less positively, foreign demand eased further, leading to
another decline in export orders.

Turning to prices, input costs fell at one of the steepest rates since the survey
began in February 2006. Consequently, output charges decreased at a steep
pace, in part due to increased promotional efforts to attract customers.
Note: S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
A reading above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous
month, while a value below 50 indicates an overall decrease. REAL SECTOR | Consumer sentiment improves while business
Source: S&P Global.
sentiment deteriorates further in August
The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio
Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) rose to 96.8 in August, up from
the prior month’s 94.8. August’s result marked the strongest reading since
Consumer and Business Confidence Indices February 2014. As such, the index moved closer to, but remained below, the
100-point threshold, indicating milder pessimism among Brazilian consumers.

Conversely, the seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index

dropped to 91.4 in August, deteriorating from July’s 91.9. August’s result was
the weakest sentiment since July 2020. As such, the index moved further
below the 100-point threshold, signaling starker pessimism among industrial
firms.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation increases in July

Inflation came in at 4.0% in July, up from June’s 3.2%. July’s result was
markedly above the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB)’s 3.25% target for the year
Note: Consumer and industrial business confidence indexes (seasonally and overshot market expectations of a 3.9% increase. Looking at the details
adjusted). The 100-point threshold represents the point above which consumers
and industrial businesses expect economic conditions to improve. of the release, the acceleration was largely due to housing prices rising at a
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas).
slightly quicker pace in July compared to the previous month. Moreover, prices
for transport grew 0.3% year on year, swinging from a 5.7% annual decline
the prior month. The increase was due to the reinstatement of a federal tax on
fuels. These developments more than offset easing price pressures for food
and beverages.

Still, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.4%
in July (June: 5.9%).

Finally, consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.12% in July over the
previous month, contrasting June’s 0.08% drop.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 39

 Brazil September 2023

Inflation | Consumer Price Index In August, state-controlled oil company Petrolero Brasileiro hiked gas and
diesel prices by 16% and 26%, respectively. Higher fuel prices, coupled with
the start of the BCB’s loosening cycle in early August, will likely see inflation
revert its recent downward path and pick up in the remainder of H2 2023,
missing the Central Bank’s target for the year. That said, a pickup in inflation
in the coming months is unlikely to deter the BCB from cutting rates further,
though the Bank is likely to rule out cuts larger than 50 basis points.

FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 4.8% on average in

2023, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
4.2% on average in 2024.

Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %. EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account posts deficit in July
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Brazil’s current account recorded a USD 3.6 billion deficit in July, improving
from the USD 5.3 billion shortfall posted in July 2022 but deteriorating from the
USD 1.3 billion deficit tallied the prior month.
Current Account Balance | USD billion
In July, the goods trade balance widened to a USD 7.2 billion surplus compared
to the same month last year. Meanwhile, the services account deficit was
unchanged from July 2022. Lastly, net foreign investment was positive in July
but lower than in the same month last year, totaling USD 4.2 billion in inflows
(July 2022: USD +7.2 billion).

Meanwhile, the 12-month sum of the current account balance widened to a

USD 51.1 billion shortfall in July from the USD 48.8 billion deficit clocked in
July 2022. This was equivalent to approximately 2.5% of GDP (July 2022:
approximately 2.7% of GDP).

Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion. FocusEconomics panelists see the current account posting a deficit of 2.1% of
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB).
GDP in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and posting a deficit
of 2.3% of GDP in 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 40

 Brazil September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 208 210 212 213 214 215 216 217 219 222
GDP per capita (USD) 9,192 8,913 6,973 7,756 8,978 9,880 10,350 10,702 11,290 11,914
GDP (USD bn) 1,917 1,873 1,477 1,649 1,921 2,126 2,239 2,327 2,468 2,644
GDP (BRL bn) 7,004 7,389 7,610 8,899 9,915 10,580 11,244 11,922 12,822 13,785
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.4 5.5 3.0 16.9 11.4 6.7 6.3 6.0 7.6 7.5
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.8 1.2 -3.3 5.0 2.9 2.4 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.3 1.8 -4.3 5.8 2.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 2.6 -4.6 3.7 4.3 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 -0.5 -3.7 3.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.2 4.0 -1.7 16.5 0.9 -1.7 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.1 -2.6 -2.3 5.9 5.5 5.5 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.7 1.3 -9.5 12.0 0.8 0.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.8 -1.1 -4.7 4.2 -0.7 0.4 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.3 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.4 12.1 13.5 13.5 9.5 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -7.0 -5.8 -13.3 -4.3 -4.6 -7.8 -6.9 -6.2 -5.8 -5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 75.3 74.4 86.9 78.3 72.9 76.1 79.6 82.0 83.8 84.3
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.7 4.3 4.5 10.1 5.8 5.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.7 3.7 3.2 8.3 9.3 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.5
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 6.50 4.50 2.00 9.25 13.75 11.83 9.08 8.34 8.38 8.25
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 9.23 6.78 6.90 10.83 12.66 10.85 10.35 10.34 - -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 3.88 4.02 5.19 5.57 5.28 4.95 5.08 5.17 5.22 5.21
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.65 3.95 5.15 5.40 5.16 4.98 5.02 5.12 5.20 5.21
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -3.6 -1.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -54.8 -68.0 -28.2 -46.4 -53.6 -44.6 -50.8 -54.3 -57.9 -65.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 46.6 35.2 50.4 61.4 61.5 74.0 64.5 66.4 71.0 81.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 232 221 209 281 334 335 339 350 372 412
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 185 186 159 219 273 261 274 283 301 330
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 7.9 -4.6 -5.4 34.2 19.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 6.4 10.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 16.6 0.3 -14.6 38.2 24.2 -4.2 5.0 3.3 6.3 9.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 78.2 69.2 37.8 46.4 87.2 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 375 357 356 362 325 343 348 358 363 377
International Reserves (months of imports) 24.3 23.0 26.9 19.8 14.3 15.7 15.2 15.1 14.5 13.7
External Debt (USD bn) 321 323 311 325 320 321 340 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 16.7 17.2 21.0 19.7 16.6 15.1 15.2 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.6 1.9 4.0 3.4 1.8 2.0 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.1
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.4 0.1 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.9 1.0 3.4 2.0 - - - - - -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.6 4.3 3.5 3.0 1.3 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.0 0.5 1.2 2.9 1.4 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.5 2.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.0 3.5 0.8 -2.6 -4.4 -2.9 0.0 2.2 2.7 3.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.5 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -0.4 1.4 2.4 0.2 1.0 2.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.9 8.1 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 7.2 5.8 4.7 3.2 5.4 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 8.6 6.1 5.3 3.8 4.7 5.1 4.6 4.1 4.2 3.9
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 12.80 11.77 10.64 9.75 9.31 9.04
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 5.41 5.28 5.07 4.82 4.87 4.96 4.99 5.01 5.06 5.09
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 5.25 5.25 5.19 4.95 4.85 4.91 4.97 5.00 5.04 5.08
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.0 -3.9 -2.6 -0.4 -1.9 -2.9 -3.8 -2.0 -2.6 -3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -19.2 -18.9 -12.6 -1.9 -10.3 -16.0 -21.0 -11.4 -14.8 -17.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 13.2 14.1 15.6 29.0 21.1 12.5 12.5 24.7 18.1 13.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 89.2 80.8 75.9 89.4 87.0 80.1 74.7 90.9 88.4 84.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 76.1 66.7 60.3 60.4 65.9 67.6 62.2 66.1 70.3 70.7
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %) 0.9 0.9 3.4 3.2 5.9 3.5 2.3 2.1 - -
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. %) -1.3 0.8 0.2 3.0 -0.3 0.8 -2.1 0.6 - -
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 -0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.6 -
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 44.3 44.2 47.5 49.2 47.0 44.3 47.1 46.6 47.8 50.1
S&P Global Services PMI (50-threshold) 51.6 51.0 50.7 49.8 51.8 54.5 54.1 53.3 50.2 50.6
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) -0.7 -3.0 4.1 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 - -
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 85.3 88.0 85.8 84.5 87.0 86.8 88.2 92.3 94.8 96.8
Business Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 93.3 93.1 92.0 94.4 94.5 92.9 94.0 94.0 91.9 91.4
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.41 0.62 0.53 0.84 0.71 0.61 0.23 -0.08 0.12 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.2 4.0 -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 5.26 5.28 5.09 5.22 5.07 5.00 5.12 4.82 4.76 4.95
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.7 -11.5 -8.9 -4.4 0.7 -0.9 0.2 -1.3 -3.6 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 41

 Brazil September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
4intelligence 3.2 1.8
Actinver 2.0 1.6
Allianz 2.1 1.2
Banco BMG 2.5 1.2
Banco BV 2.8 1.5
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi 2.4 1.5
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 3.2 2.1
Barclays Capital 3.0 1.9
BNP Paribas 2.5 1.8
BTG Pactual 2.8 1.0
Capital Economics 2.3 0.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 1.5
Credicorp Capital 3.0 1.6
Credit Suisse 2.1 1.0
DekaBank 2.9 1.4
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts DIW Berlin 0.9 1.6
EIU 2.4 1.6
EmergingMarketWatch 1.6 2.3
Euromonitor Int. 1.9 1.3
Fitch Ratings 2.3 1.3
Fitch Solutions 3.0 1.4
FrontierView 2.1 1.7
Goldman Sachs 3.3 1.3
HSBC 2.9 2.0
Ifo Institut 2.7 1.4
Itaú Unibanco 2.5 1.5
JPMorgan 3.0 1.2
Julius Baer 2.5 0.4
KBC 2.7 0.9
Kiel Institute 3.2 1.4
Kínitro Capital 3.1 1.6
LCA Consultores 3.0 1.6
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution MAPFRE Economics 0.8 1.0
MB Associados 3.0 2.0
Moody's Analytics 2.2 2.3
Oxford Economics 1.9 0.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics 3.3 2.0
Petros 3.0 1.0
Pezco Economics 3.3 1.9
Prometeia 2.1 0.8
Rabobank 2.8 1.6
S&P Global Ratings 1.7 1.5
Santander 1.9 1.0
Scotiabank 2.2 1.5
SEB 2.1 1.9
Standard Chartered 2.7 1.7
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.9 1.3
Torino Capital 1.6 -
UBS 2.5 1.5
Others (2)** 2.1 1.3
Public Forecasts
IMF 2.1 1.2
Notes and sources
World Bank 1.2 1.4
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Others (2)** 2.1 1.3
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the Summary
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist Minimum 0.8 0.4
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. Maximum 3.3 2.3
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Median 2.5 1.5
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography Consensus 2.4 1.4
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on History
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 30 days ago 2.0 1.4
1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 60 days ago 1.9 1.4
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 90 days ago 1.5 1.5
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 42

 Brazil September 2023

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
4intelligence 2.9 1.7 -1.6 3.4
Banco BMG 1.5 - -2.0 -
Banco BV 2.3 1.5 -2.2 2.0
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 3.0 2.1 0.5 5.0
Barclays Capital 2.9 2.0 -1.7 2.5
BTG Pactual 2.5 1.5 -1.5 -0.5
Capital Economics 1.1 1.3 -3.6 1.1
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 1.6 -2.5 2.2
Credicorp Capital 2.6 1.4 -1.1 2.2
Credit Suisse 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.8
EIU 2.6 1.8 0.2 2.2
Euromonitor Int. 1.2 1.5 - -
Fitch Solutions 2.3 1.8 -1.5 1.8
FrontierView 1.0 1.5 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs 2.8 3.0 -2.5 3.3
HSBC 2.6 2.0 0.3 2.3
JPMorgan - - -3.5 1.0
LCA Consultores 2.5 1.6 -2.0 0.0
MAPFRE Economics 1.0 0.2 -4.6 1.8
MB Associados 2.5 1.9 -0.4 3.2
Moody's Analytics -1.2 1.3 - -
Oxford Economics 1.1 -0.8 -3.5 3.5
Pezco Economics 3.1 1.7 -1.7 1.0
Rabobank 2.7 1.5 -2.2 3.4
S&P Global Ratings 1.7 1.6 - -
Société Générale 1.2 1.0 -3.6 -0.6
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.7 0.9 -2.6 1.3
Torino Capital 0.1 - -0.7 -
UBS 1.5 1.1 -4.0 1.9
Public Forecasts
IMF - - 0.5 0.6 8 | Investment | variation in %
OECD 2.2 1.4 2.5 1.4
Summary
Minimum -1.2 -0.8 -4.6 -0.6
Maximum 3.1 3.0 2.5 5.0
Median 2.3 1.5 -1.7 1.9
Consensus 1.9 1.4 -1.7 1.9
History
30 days ago 1.7 1.4 -1.3 1.7
60 days ago 1.5 1.6 -1.2 1.9
90 days ago 1.5 1.6 -0.7 1.8

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 43

 Brazil September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
4intelligence 0.0 1.7 7.9 8.1
Banco BMG 0.5 2.0 8.3 8.8
Banco BV - - 8.3 9.1
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi - - 8.6 8.9
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 1.5 1.5 8.0 8.7
Barclays Capital 0.0 1.5 8.2 8.8
BTG Pactual - - 8.4 8.5
Capital Economics 2.5 1.0 8.3 9.0
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 8.5 8.3
Credicorp Capital - - 8.1 8.5
Credit Suisse - - 8.7 8.9
DIW Berlin - - 8.8 8.7
EIU 0.4 1.1 - -
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Euromonitor Int. 0.2 1.6 8.4 8.8
Fitch Ratings - - 8.5 8.5
Fitch Solutions - - 8.4 8.3
FrontierView 0.1 2.1 8.7 9.2
HSBC 1.0 2.7 8.1 7.9
Itaú Unibanco - - 8.0 8.0
JPMorgan -0.4 1.5 9.6 9.8
Kínitro Capital - - 8.1 8.5
LCA Consultores -0.3 1.9 7.9 8.4
MB Associados 0.1 0.0 8.0 8.1
Moody's Analytics -0.2 0.9 - -
Oxford Economics 0.3 2.0 8.4 8.7
Petros - - 8.1 8.7
Pezco Economics 0.8 1.1 8.2 7.7
Rabobank -0.7 0.4 8.0 8.5
S&P Global Ratings - - 9.4 9.3
Santander - - 8.2 9.3 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Société Générale - - 8.4 8.6
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 0.1 1.6 8.1 8.3
Torino Capital - - 8.8 -
UBS 1.0 1.5 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF - - 9.5 9.4
Summary
Minimum -0.7 0.0 7.9 7.7
Maximum 2.5 2.7 9.6 9.8
Median 0.2 1.5 8.3 8.7
Consensus 0.4 1.5 8.4 8.6
History
30 days ago 0.4 1.6 8.6 8.8
60 days ago 0.3 1.6 8.7 9.0
90 days ago 0.3 1.2 8.8 9.1

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 44

 Brazil September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Banco BMG -7.1 -6.1 75.3 78.2
Banco BV -7.6 -6.3 74.8 77.3
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. - - 78.0 81.7
Barclays Capital -6.9 -6.7 75.2 77.6
BNP Paribas -8.9 -8.2 77.3 79.8
BTG Pactual - - 74.8 77.9
Capital Economics -8.5 -7.3 76.5 79.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -7.7 -6.7 76.3 80.2
Credicorp Capital -8.2 -6.5 74.8 79.2
Credit Suisse -8.4 -6.4 76.7 80.2
DekaBank -7.6 -7.5 - -
EIU - - 75.9 79.0
Fitch Ratings -6.7 -5.9 74.8 77.0
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
Fitch Solutions -7.2 -6.6 75.8 79.7
Goldman Sachs -7.8 -7.2 76.4 79.8
HSBC -7.6 -5.9 77.1 77.7
Itaú Unibanco - - 75.4 78.3
JPMorgan -6.3 -6.5 76.5 80.5
LCA Consultores -9.3 -7.2 76.2 79.2
MAPFRE Economics -8.0 -7.7 - -
MB Associados -7.3 -5.2 77.5 79.1
Moody's Analytics - - 75.5 86.9
Oxford Economics -7.7 -7.7 76.0 82.0
Petros - - 76.7 80.6
Pezco Economics -8.4 -8.1 75.2 78.5
Rabobank -7.1 -6.8 75.5 77.8
Santander -8.1 -7.7 77.0 81.1
Société Générale -7.7 -6.9 76.8 79.4
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -8.4 -6.5 76.6 80.1
Torino Capital - - 74.4 - 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
UBS -7.4 -8.5 76.8 80.7
Public Forecasts
IMF -7.9 -7.4 77.1 79.3
Summary
Minimum -9.3 -8.5 74.4 77.0
Maximum -6.3 -5.2 78.0 86.9
Median -7.7 -6.8 76.3 79.4
Consensus -7.8 -6.9 76.1 79.6
History
30 days ago -7.7 -7.0 76.6 80.1
60 days ago -7.8 -7.2 76.7 80.1
90 days ago -8.0 -7.3 76.7 80.2

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 45

 Brazil September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
4intelligence 5.0 3.8 - -
Actinver 4.9 4.1 5.1 3.9
Allianz - - 5.6 4.8
Banco BMG 5.1 3.7 4.8 4.1
Banco BV 5.2 4.0 - -
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi 4.9 3.8 4.7 4.0
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 5.0 3.5 4.7 3.9
Barclays Capital 5.1 3.7 4.7 4.1
BNP Paribas - - 4.7 4.0
BTG Pactual 4.8 3.8 - -
Capital Economics 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 5.2 4.0 4.8 4.2
Credicorp Capital 4.7 4.0 4.9 3.8
Credit Suisse 4.7 3.9 5.3 5.3 19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
DekaBank - - 4.5 3.7
DIW Berlin - - 4.5 4.2
EIU 4.5 3.7 4.5 3.7
EmergingMarketWatch 5.3 3.5 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 5.0 4.6
Fitch Ratings - - 4.8 4.5
Fitch Solutions 4.8 3.9 4.6 4.0
FrontierView - - 4.6 4.0
Goldman Sachs 5.2 4.4 4.8 4.8
HSBC 5.1 3.9 4.8 4.2
Ifo Institut - - 4.7 4.2
Itaú Unibanco 4.9 4.3 - -
JPMorgan 4.8 3.6 4.7 3.8
Julius Baer - - 4.4 4.0
KBC - - 5.0 4.4
Kiel Institute 4.7 3.7 4.7 3.6
Kínitro Capital 4.7 3.7 - - 20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
LCA Consultores 5.1 4.0 4.7 4.4
MAPFRE Economics 5.4 4.0 5.1 4.3
MB Associados 5.0 4.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 5.3 3.5 4.8 3.9
Oxford Economics 4.9 3.9 4.7 4.2
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 4.7 4.1
Petros 5.1 4.0 4.7 4.4
Pezco Economics 5.5 5.0 - -
Prometeia - - 4.9 5.0
Rabobank 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.3
S&P Global Ratings 5.6 3.9 - -
Santander 4.9 3.9 - -
Scotiabank 4.9 3.8 5.0 4.2
SEB - - 4.8 4.0
Standard Chartered - - 4.6 3.7
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 5.1 4.0 - -
Torino Capital 4.4 - 4.6 -
UBS 4.9 3.3 4.7 3.7 21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Others (2)** - - 5.0 4.1
Public Forecasts
IMF 5.4 3.9 5.1 4.6
Summary
Minimum 4.0 3.3 4.4 3.6
Maximum 5.6 5.0 5.6 5.3
Median 5.0 3.9 4.7 4.2
Consensus 5.0 3.9 4.8 4.2
History
30 days ago 5.1 3.9 5.0 4.3
60 days ago 5.3 4.0 5.0 4.3
90 days ago 5.6 4.0 5.2 4.4

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 46

 Brazil September 2023

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
4intelligence 11.75 9.75
Actinver 12.25 9.25
Banco BMG 11.75 9.50
Banco BV 11.75 9.00
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi 11.75 9.00
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 11.75 9.00
Barclays Capital 11.75 9.50
BTG Pactual 11.75 9.50
Capital Economics 11.75 9.50
Citigroup Global Mkts 11.75 9.00
Credicorp Capital 11.50 9.50
Credit Agricole 12.00 9.25
EIU 11.75 9.50
Fitch Solutions 11.75 9.25
Goldman Sachs 11.75 9.00
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst HSBC 11.50 8.50
Itaú Unibanco 11.75 9.50
JPMorgan 11.75 -
KBC 11.25 -
Kínitro Capital 11.75 8.00
LCA Consultores 11.75 9.25
MAPFRE Economics 13.00 -
MB Associados 11.75 9.25
Oxford Economics 11.75 8.50
Pantheon Macroeconomics 11.75 5.75
Petros 11.75 8.50
Pezco Economics 11.75 10.25
Rabobank 11.75 9.25
S&P Global Ratings 12.50 9.00
Santander 11.75 10.00
Scotiabank 12.00 9.25
Société Générale 12.00 -
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution Tendências Consultoria Integrada 12.00 10.00
Torino Capital 12.00 -
UBS 11.75 8.00
Summary
Minimum 11.25 5.75
Maximum 13.00 10.25
Median 11.75 9.25
Consensus 11.83 9.08
History
30 days ago 12.11 9.26
60 days ago 12.22 9.41
90 days ago 12.39 9.63

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 47

 Brazil September 2023

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
4intelligence 4.90 5.00
Actinver 4.99 5.11
Banco BMG 4.90 5.10
Banco BV 5.30 5.30
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 5.20 5.30
Barclays Capital 4.75 5.10
BTG Pactual 4.80 5.00
Capital Economics 5.25 5.00
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.91 4.95
Credicorp Capital 4.90 5.05
Credit Agricole 5.25 5.15
Credit Suisse 5.00 5.00
EIU 4.80 4.86
Fitch Ratings 5.10 5.20
Fitch Solutions 4.90 5.00
29 | BRL per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst 30 | BRL per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst HSBC 4.50 -
Itaú Unibanco 5.00 5.25
JPMorgan 4.90 -
Julius Baer 4.83 5.04
KBC 4.81 -
Kínitro Capital 4.90 5.00
LCA Consultores 5.00 4.96
MAPFRE Economics 5.03 5.10
MB Associados 4.90 5.00
Moody's Analytics 4.77 4.84
Oxford Economics 5.05 5.24
Petros 5.00 5.10
Pezco Economics 5.03 5.25
Rabobank 5.05 5.15
S&P Global Ratings 5.10 5.20
Santander 5.20 5.35
Scotiabank 4.85 4.72
31 | BRL per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution Société Générale 4.70 -
Standard Chartered 4.60 4.90
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 5.05 5.20
Torino Capital 5.22 -
UBS 4.80 5.00
Summary
Minimum 4.50 4.72
Maximum 5.30 5.35
Median 4.91 5.07
Consensus 4.95 5.08
History
30 days ago 4.99 5.11
60 days ago 5.05 5.16
90 days ago 5.18 5.22

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 48

 Brazil September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
4intelligence -2.0 -1.6 - -
Banco BMG -1.9 -2.0 79.0 62.6
Banco BV -2.3 -2.5 80.9 71.2
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -2.1 -1.9 70.0 60.0
Barclays Capital -2.0 -2.1 - -
BNP Paribas -2.3 -2.0 - -
BTG Pactual -2.1 -2.4 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.3 -2.5 - -
Credicorp Capital -2.2 -2.3 57.0 42.0
Credit Agricole -2.4 -2.5 - -
Credit Suisse -2.2 -2.2 - -
DekaBank -1.9 -2.3 - -
EIU -1.9 -2.3 - -
Euromonitor Int. -2.1 -2.9 87.2 71.0 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Fitch Ratings -1.8 -2.2 - -
Fitch Solutions -1.8 -2.2 - -
Goldman Sachs -2.1 -1.8 - -
HSBC -1.7 -1.5 - -
Itaú Unibanco -1.7 -1.5 70.0 60.0
JPMorgan -2.4 -2.5 - -
Kínitro Capital -2.0 -1.5 - -
LCA Consultores -2.6 -2.9 71.4 68.7
MAPFRE Economics -1.5 -3.5 - -
MB Associados -2.7 -2.5 70.7 74.5
Oxford Economics -1.7 -3.2 - -
Pezco Economics -2.8 -2.4 81.2 82.1
Rabobank -2.0 -2.2 67.0 55.5
Société Générale -2.4 -2.4 - -
Standard Chartered -2.0 -2.4 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -2.2 -2.4 73.5 65.0
Torino Capital -2.1 - - - 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
UBS -1.8 -2.0 79.6 61.8
Public Forecasts
IMF -2.3 -2.5 - -
OECD -2.0 -1.8 - -
Summary
Minimum -2.8 -3.5 57.0 42.0
Maximum -1.5 -1.5 87.2 82.1
Median -2.1 -2.3 72.4 63.8
Consensus -2.1 -2.3 74.0 64.5
History
30 days ago -2.1 -2.3 73.1 68.2
60 days ago -2.1 -2.4 71.0 66.2
90 days ago -2.2 -2.4 67.8 64.6

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior).
See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 49

 Brazil September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Banco BMG 330 337 251 274
Banco BV 332 338 251 267
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 350 325 280 265
Credicorp Capital 346 337 289 295
Euromonitor Int. 345 373 258 302
Itaú Unibanco 320 328 250 268
LCA Consultores 334 322 262 253
MB Associados 326 355 255 281
Pezco Economics 336 356 255 274
Rabobank 352 346 285 291
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 322 320 248 255
UBS 331 330 251 268
Summary
Minimum 320 320 248 253 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Maximum 352 373 289 302
Median 333 337 255 271
Consensus 335 339 261 274
History
30 days ago 339 345 266 277
60 days ago 339 349 268 283
90 days ago 337 347 269 283

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC,
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 50

 Brazil September 2023

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

International Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
4intelligence 365 373 - -
Banco BMG 345 345 - -
Banco BV 330 330 - -
Barclays Capital 345 363 - -
BNP Paribas 341 338 - -
BTG Pactual 345 345 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 343 343 296 327
Credit Suisse 325 325 - -
Euromonitor Int. 356 378 - -
Fitch Ratings 347 353 - -
Fitch Solutions 348 361 - -
Goldman Sachs 340 340 - -
HSBC - - 329 367
LCA Consultores 333 341 330 337 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
MB Associados 342 366 320 330
Moody's Analytics 346 357 - -
Pezco Economics 347 338 - -
Rabobank 332 332 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 344 356 - -
Torino Capital 351 - 328 -
UBS 331 331 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF 346 346 - -
Summary
Minimum 325 325 296 327
Maximum 365 378 330 367
Median 345 345 328 333
Consensus 343 348 321 340
History
30 days ago 342 345 321 340
60 days ago 339 344 321 340
42 | External Debt | % of GDP
90 days ago 338 342 329 341

43 | External Debt | USD bn

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

40 International reserves, months of imports.

41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, USD billion.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 51

 Brazil September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Brazil in the Region

Official name: Federative Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Brazil
Capital: Brasilia (4.5m)
Other cities: Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
Area (km2): 8,515,770
Population (million, 2019 est.): 213
Population density (per km2, 2019): 25.0
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 74.7
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 6.8
Language: Portuguese
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-2 to GMT-4

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 18.3 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 99
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 70.4
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 14.9

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 11,221
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 12,565
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 578
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 516
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,363
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,029
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 464

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 4,093
Railways (km): 29,850
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 2,000,000
Waterways (km): 50,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Santos, Belem, Rio de Janeiro

Political Data
President: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last elections: 2 October 2022
Next elections: 2026
Central Bank President: Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto Exports Imports

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Ba2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB- Positive Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Commitment to economic • Pronounced socio-economic

orthodoxy inequalities Exports Imports
• Large domestic market and • Inadequate infrastructure creates
diversified production bottleneck for economic growth
• Stable financial system
• Strong foreign direct investment • Limited progress on privatization
flows bolster capital account and deregulation
.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 52

 Chile September 2023

Chile
Outlook stable
Chile

• The economy contracted 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-

on-quarter basis in Q2, contrasting Q1’s expansion but half the fall
anticipated by monthly economic activity data. Government spending and
exports declined, which more than offset a rebound in fixed investment
and private consumption flatlining—the best performance in five quarters.
GDP should grow in quarter-on-quarter and annual terms in Q3, on
declining inflation and interest rate cuts by the Central Bank. Early signs
are positive: In July, month-on-month economic activity grew further, while
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
business sentiment rose to an 11-month high in August. Recent intense
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
Population (million): 19.4 20.1 20.7
rains should be boosting hydroelectric output and alleviating the water
GDP (USD bn): 283 337 412 shortage that has held back the mining sector. However, agricultural
GDP per capita (USD): 14,559 16,727 19,918
output has been hit; the government estimates that the rains in late
GDP growth (%): 2.1 1.4 2.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.9 -1.1 -1.6 August alone caused crop damages worth USD 1 billion.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 32.4 39.0 39.8
Inflation (%): 3.4 7.7 3.1
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.8 -5.2 -3.5
• GDP is seen shrinking marginally overall in 2023, though a recovery
External Debt (% of GDP): 76.1 73.3 - should take hold in H2 and heading into 2024 as inflation and interest
rates fall. A further economic deterioration in China is a downside risk. The
Oliver Reynolds
Economist outcome of December’s constitutional referendum and the government’s
proposed reforms to boost pensions, taxes and public spending are key
factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.2%
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.9%
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
in 2024.

• Inflation came in at 6.5% in July (June: 7.6%), the lowest rate since
October 2021 but still more than double the Central Bank’s 3.0% target.
Inflation should fall further later this year but will remain above the Bank’s
target amid monetary easing, recent peso weakening and an uptick in oil
prices. Inflation is only expected to fall close to target towards end-2024.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 7.8% on average
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 3.7% on
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 average in 2024.
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.

• The Central Bank cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 9.50% on 5

September and hinted at more cuts going forward due to its expectation
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts of a further decline in inflation ahead. The Consensus is for over 150
basis points of additional easing by end-2023, though there is a 175 basis
point spread among end-of-year policy rate forecasts. FocusEconomics
panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 7.90% and ending
2024 at 4.66%.

• The peso traded at CLP 878 per USD on 7 September, depreciating 2.9%
month on month. Aggressive rate cuts by the Central Bank were likely to
blame. Looking ahead, the peso should appreciate slightly from current
levels by year-end, supported by market intervention by the finance
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
ministry. Faster-than-expected monetary easing is a depreciatory risk.
2024. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at CLP 825 per
USD and ending 2024 at CLP 816 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 53

 Chile September 2023

REAL SECTOR | GDP drops in the second quarter in both annual and
quarterly terms
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP contracted 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis
in the second quarter, contrasting the downwardly revised 0.4% expansion
logged in the first quarter but half the fall that monthly economic activity data
had anticipated. On an annual basis, GDP declined 1.1% in Q2, compared to
the previous period’s 0.8% contraction.

Household spending was flat in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms

in the second quarter, which marked the best reading since Q1 2022 (Q1:
-2.5% s.a. qoq). Government consumption dropped at the sharpest pace since
Q1 2023, contracting 2.1% (Q1: +4.4% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment
rebounded 1.4% in Q2, contrasting the 0.8% contraction logged in the previous
quarter and driven by higher machinery and equipment investment.
Note: Year-on-year and seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes of GDP
in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 1.3% in Q2,
marking the worst result since Q1 2022 (Q1: +0.5% s.a. qoq). Conversely,
imports of goods and services bounced back, growing 3.2% in Q2 (Q1: -4.4%
s.a. qoq).

Looking ahead, the economy should return to growth in Q3, abetted by easing
inflation and interest rates.

Commenting on the Q2 data, Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:

“We highlight that domestic demand firmed notably during the second quarter,
surprising to the upside. Although moderate, private consumption posted a
non-negative sequential growth print for the first time in five quarters. Gross
fixed capital formation also firmed. All in all, despite the drag from government
spending, final domestic demand (i.e., excluding the change in inventories)
also posted a non-negative sequential growth print for the first time in five
quarters.”

FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.2% in 2023, which is

unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.9% in 2024.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity expands at fastest pace since June

2022 in July
Economic Activity | variation in % Economic activity rose 1.8% in year-on-year terms in July, which contrasted
June’s 0.8% decrease and was double the growth expected by the market.
July’s figure marked the best reading since June 2022, and was due to
improvements in the mining and non-mining sectors. That said, the reading
was likely flattered by transitory factors. Education output rose sharply in July
for instance, due to a reduced holiday period this year relative to July 2022.
Moreover, recent rains buoyed hydroelectric generation.

On a monthly basis, economic activity grew 0.3% in seasonally adjusted

terms in July, which was below June’s 0.4% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend
improved, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at
minus 0.9%, up from June’s minus 1.0% reading.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month growth rate in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh).
The economy is expected to expand in annual terms in H2 as a whole, after
contracting in H1, aided by the Central Bank initiating its easing cycle in July.

Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:

“The bulk of the adjustment is probably behind us and growth, albeit below
potential, is likely to resume in the second half of the year. We remain slightly

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 54

 Chile September 2023

more constructive on growth and expect the economy to expand 0.1% in

2023.”

REAL SECTOR | Business confidence picks up but remains pessimistic

in August
Business Confidence Business confidence rose to 43.2 in August from July’s 41.1. August’s result
marked the best performance since September 2022. As such, the index
remained entrenched below the 50-point threshold, but indicated reduced
pessimism among businesses.

August’s reading was driven by improved sentiment in the industrial, retail

sector and mining sectors. Despite improved business confidence so far in
Q3 relative to Q2, the Consensus is still for a year-on-year contraction in fixed
investment in the third quarter, and over 2023 as a whole.

FocusEconomics panelists see fixed investment contracting 2.2% in 2023,

which is up by 0.7 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza 1.8% in 2024.
Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to over one-year low in July
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Inflation fell to 6.5% in July below June’s 7.6%. July’s figure marked the
weakest inflation rate since October 2021, but was still more than double the
Central Bank’s 3% target. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food
and non-alcoholic beverages and housing, utilities and fuel rose at a softer
pace in July, while transport prices fell.

Annual average inflation fell to 11.1% in July (June: 11.7%). Meanwhile, core
inflation fell to 6.2% in July, from the previous month’s 6.9%.

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.35% over the previous month in July,
contrasting June’s 0.15% drop. July’s figure marked the highest reading since
March.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE). FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 7.8% on average in
2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 3.7% on average
in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank slashes rates again in September

Monetary Policy Rate | in % At its 5 September meeting, the board of the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh)
decided to cut the monetary policy rate to 9.50% from 10.25%, in line with
market expectations and following a 100 basis-point cut at the prior meeting.

The decision was driven by sharp falls in headline and core inflation in recent
months. Moreover, two-year market inflation expectations sit at the Central
Bank’s 3.0% target.

The Bank suggested it would continue to cut the policy rate going forward,
given that inflation is seen continuing to trend down ahead and converge
with the target in H2 2024. The Consensus is for around 175 basis points
of additional easing by end-2023. However, there is a large 200 basis point
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %. spread among end-of-year policy rate forecasts, and recent peso weakness—
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh).
the currency has depreciated around 7% since end-June—could stoke price
pressures and encourage the BCCh to slow the pace of monetary easing.

On the outlook, Itau Unibanco analysts said:

“Monetary policy continues to be very contractive considering that at 6% it is

still well above the central bank’s real neutral range estimate of 0.5%-1.0%.
The communiqué reaffirms the expectation of a yearend rate outlined in the

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 55

 Chile September 2023

previous decision (7.75-8.0%), implying rate cuts of a similar magnitude in

October and December.”

On the currency, EIU analysts said:

“The government’s currency intervention will help to reduce (but not eliminate)
the risk of currency overshooting as the BCCh continues its aggressive cuts.
There is a risk that the peso will depreciate more than we expect, which could
raise inflationary pressures and may cause the BCCh to take a more cautious
approach to monetary easing.”

FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 7.90%
and ending 2024 at 4.66%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices fall in August; copper output rises

in July
Copper Price | USD per metric ton Copper prices averaged USD 8,348 in August, down from the prior month’s
USD 8,477. Prices were likely dampened in recent weeks by disappointing
economic data from China and the lack of major Chinese stimulus measures.
The latest data shows that Chilean copper output rose 0.9% in annual terms
in July, marking the first rise since January.

Copper prices are seen averaging close to their current levels through the
end of this year. Copper demand from developed markets will likely flag due
to high interest rates, and economic momentum in China should stay sluggish
due to weak sentiment and a housing market downturn. That said, major
Chinese stimulus measures are an upside risk to prices.

Note: Cash seller and settlement price.

On the supply side, Chilean copper output will likely fall in 2023 as a whole
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME). relative to 2022 amid declining ore grades and water shortages in H1. That
said, heavy rains since June could ease water shortages in H2 and thus
support output. The combination of lower average copper prices this year
compared to last, soft domestic copper output, muted economic activity and
high social spending demands will lead to a renewed fiscal deficit and a
consequent rise in the public-debt-to-GDP ratio this year.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 56

 Chile September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9
GDP per capita (USD) 15,737 14,565 13,081 16,031 15,091 17,201 17,890 18,833 19,925 20,994
GDP (USD bn) 295 278 255 316 301 346 363 386 412 438
GDP (CLP bn) 189,435 195,752 201,429 240,371 262,593 281,147 296,671 314,630 339,363 362,736
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 3.3 2.9 19.3 9.2 7.1 5.5 6.1 7.9 6.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 0.7 -6.1 11.7 2.4 -0.2 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.0 0.9 -9.4 21.7 2.3 -3.6 2.3 3.0 - -
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.6 0.7 -6.6 19.3 3.1 -3.1 2.2 2.5 - -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.8 0.7 -7.4 20.8 2.9 -4.2 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.1 0.6 -3.5 13.8 4.1 3.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.5 4.5 -10.8 15.7 2.8 -2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.9 -2.5 -0.9 -1.4 1.4 1.4 2.9 1.9 2.6 2.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.6 -1.7 -12.3 31.8 0.9 -8.7 3.9 2.3 2.8 2.4
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 2.8 0.8 -2.3 5.3 -2.5 -2.2 0.0 - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.8 -1.3 -3.5 28.4 -4.2 -4.9 5.3 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.3 7.2 10.6 9.1 7.8 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -2.9 -7.3 -7.7 1.1 -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 25.7 28.6 32.3 36.4 37.6 38.9 40.4 41.0 39.8 38.6
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.6 3.0 3.0 7.2 12.8 4.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.4 2.6 3.0 4.5 11.6 7.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.0
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 1.75 0.50 4.00 11.25 7.90 4.66 4.22 4.07 3.80
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.21 3.14 2.65 5.65 5.32 5.20 5.21 4.94 - -
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 694 752 711 852 852 825 816 816 832 824
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 642 703 791 760 873 813 817 816 824 828
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -5.2 -1.9 -7.3 -9.0 -3.2 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -13.3 -14.5 -5.0 -23.2 -27.1 -11.2 -12.4 -13.4 -14.9 -15.6
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 4.4 3.0 18.9 10.5 3.8 15.3 14.5 11.6 11.0 11.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 74.8 68.8 74.0 94.8 98.5 99.4 102.3 103.3 106.8 109.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 70.4 65.8 55.1 84.3 94.7 84.1 87.8 91.7 95.8 98.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.6 -8.1 7.6 28.0 4.0 0.9 2.9 0.9 3.4 2.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 14.7 -6.6 -16.2 53.0 12.4 -11.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 2.9
Copper LME (USD/mt, aop) 6,527 6,008 6,183 9,318 8,823 8,562 8,632 9,066 8,888 8,888
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 13.0 14.4 10.8 13.2 19.8 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 39.9 40.7 39.2 51.3 39.2 43.1 44.8 45.6 47.7 50.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.8 7.4 8.5 7.3 5.0 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.2
External Debt (USD bn) 184 198 208 238 233 247 257 250 - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 62.4 71.3 81.9 75.2 77.6 71.3 70.9 64.8 - -
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.2 -2.3 -0.8 -1.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.6
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -1.2 0.0 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -1.8 -7.6 -8.0 -5.6 -2.1 -0.4 2.4 2.1 2.5 3.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.4 -4.7 -7.0 -6.1 -2.9 -1.7 1.3 2.5 2.7 3.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.8 -2.1 2.7 1.5 3.5 3.2 5.5 3.2 2.9 3.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.5 -1.7 -2.3 1.6 -3.5 -2.0 0.5 2.3 3.1 3.8
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -4.3 -7.1 -3.6 -4.5 - - - - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -13.0 -12.8 -9.2 -11.5 -1.5 1.8 5.0 8.0 4.2 4.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.0 7.9 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 13.7 12.8 11.1 7.6 5.1 4.2 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 13.6 13.0 11.8 8.7 5.9 4.5 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 10.75 11.25 11.25 11.25 9.50 8.00 7.00 5.96 5.29 4.75
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.87 5.32 5.32 5.29 5.52 5.45 5.30 5.24 5.26 5.27
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 958 852 791 802 821 831 815 814 812 824
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -10.9 -6.4 1.9 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -2.3 -3.1 -4.2 -3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -7.5 -5.0 1.7 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -2.0 -2.8 -3.8 -3.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.0 3.7 7.5 3.6 1.3 2.9 4.5 4.3 2.1 4.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 23.9 25.4 27.0 23.4 23.6 25.1 25.2 25.1 24.9 26.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 24.9 21.7 19.5 19.8 22.3 22.2 20.7 20.8 22.8 22.2
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %) -3.3 -2.0 0.2 -0.5 -2.1 -0.9 -1.6 -0.8 1.8 -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -7.8 -4.4 -1.3 -3.6 -5.6 -6.6 -1.4 -5.4 -3.9 -
Unemployment (% of active population) 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.4 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.8 -
Consumer Confidence (OECD) 94.8 94.7 94.9 95.2 95.5 95.6 95.8 96.1 96.2 96.2
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 41.0 35.6 40.7 42.1 40.5 41.4 41.4 39.5 41.1 43.2
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.97 0.29 0.80 -0.06 1.08 0.31 0.11 -0.15 0.35 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 13.3 12.8 12.3 11.9 11.1 9.9 8.7 7.6 6.5 -
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 896 852 799 832 791 802 814 802 840 857
Copper LME (USD/mt, aop) 8,050 8,371 9,007 8,937 8,856 8,809 8,243 8,397 8,477 8,348
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 57

 Chile September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
ABIF -0.3 1.8
Actinver -0.2 2.1
AGPV 0.0 1.8
Allianz 0.3 1.6
Banchile Inversiones -0.3 1.8
Barclays Capital -0.2 1.5
BCI -0.5 1.7
BICE Inversiones -0.8 2.5
BNP Paribas -1.0 1.0
BTG Pactual -0.3 1.5
Capital Economics 0.3 2.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.1 2.6
Corficolombiana -0.2 2.0
Credicorp Capital -0.3 2.3
DekaBank -0.2 2.0
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
EIU 0.1 2.3
EmergingMarketWatch 0.0 2.0
Euromonitor Int. -0.2 2.0
Fitch Ratings 0.0 2.4
Fitch Solutions -0.1 2.1
FrontierView -0.6 2.2
Fynsa -0.5 1.8
Gemines -0.3 1.7
Goldman Sachs 0.1 1.8
HSBC -0.3 1.7
Inversiones Security 0.0 1.5
Itaú Unibanco -0.5 1.8
JPMorgan 0.1 2.3
Julius Baer -0.5 1.6
Kiel Institute -0.2 1.7
Moody's Analytics 0.2 2.1
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution
Oxford Economics -0.4 1.4
Pantheon Macroeconomics 0.1 1.5
Pezco Economics -0.1 2.6
Rabobank -0.1 1.6
S&P Global Ratings 0.3 2.4
Santander -0.8 2.0
Scope Ratings -1.0 -
Scotiabank -0.8 2.3
Standard Chartered 0.1 2.1
STF Capital -0.5 2.0
Torino Capital -0.3 -
UBS -0.7 1.8
Public Forecasts
CAF -0.3 1.7
CEPAL -0.3 1.8
OECD -0.1 1.9
World Bank -0.4 1.8
Summary
Minimum -1.0 1.0
Maximum 0.3 2.6
Median -0.2 1.8
Notes and sources Consensus -0.2 1.9
History
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. 30 days ago -0.2 1.9
60 days ago -0.2 2.0
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco 90 days ago -0.3 2.1
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, real annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 58

 Chile September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABIF -4.8 1.8 -3.2 -0.6
Banchile Inversiones - - -3.2 -0.3
BCI -4.2 0.2 -2.8 -1.5
BICE Inversiones -3.4 1.8 -3.8 4.7
BTG Pactual -4.7 1.4 -1.0 0.6
Capital Economics -4.8 1.3 -0.6 2.4
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.6 3.2 -2.4 3.3
EIU -3.7 1.9 -2.5 1.0
Euromonitor Int. -2.9 2.1 - -
Fitch Solutions -4.5 3.0 -0.8 2.5
FrontierView -4.6 4.5 - -
Fynsa -4.5 1.9 -1.8 2.1
Gemines -4.7 3.2 -1.5 -0.1
Goldman Sachs -3.9 2.6 0.0 2.9 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

HSBC -3.2 1.4 - -

Inversiones Security -5.1 2.0 -0.5 3.5
Moody's Analytics -4.5 2.4 -5.5 2.0
Oxford Economics -5.2 5.3 -0.3 5.8
Pezco Economics -1.1 2.3 -2.0 3.3
Rabobank -4.1 1.5 -3.3 2.9
S&P Global Ratings -4.0 2.0 - -
Santander -5.2 1.0 -1.3 0.4
STF Capital -5.1 1.3 -4.1 0.5
Torino Capital -3.3 - -0.3 -
UBS -3.9 2.3 -3.0 3.0
Public Forecasts
CAF -4.8 1.3 -3.0 -1.0
OECD -5.2 1.7 -2.7 1.2
Summary
Minimum -5.2 0.2 -5.5 -1.5
Maximum -1.1 5.3 0.0 5.8 8 | Investment | variation in %
Median -4.5 1.9 -2.4 2.0
Consensus -4.2 2.1 -2.2 1.8
History
30 days ago -3.9 2.1 -2.9 1.7
60 days ago -3.9 2.1 -2.8 1.6
90 days ago -3.4 2.0 -2.7 1.5

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 59

 Chile September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABIF - - 8.6 8.2
BCI - - 8.8 8.2
BICE Inversiones - - 8.1 7.4
BTG Pactual - - 8.3 8.5
Capital Economics - - 8.0 7.5
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 8.2 7.6
Credicorp Capital - - 8.6 8.6
Euromonitor Int. - - 8.7 8.5
Fitch Solutions - - 8.5 7.6
FrontierView - - 8.2 7.5
Fynsa - - 8.3 -
Gemines -3.4 -3.4 8.7 8.5
HSBC - - 8.9 8.8 11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Inversiones Security -3.6 0.2 9.0 9.5
Oxford Economics - - 8.7 8.7
Pezco Economics -0.1 2.3 8.7 8.6
Rabobank -1.9 0.7 8.7 8.3
S&P Global Ratings - - 8.5 8.0
Scotiabank - - 8.8 8.3
UBS - - 8.8 8.2
Public Forecasts
CAF - - 8.2 8.0
OECD - - 8.5 7.8
Summary
Minimum -3.6 -3.4 8.0 7.4
Maximum -0.1 2.3 9.0 9.5
Median -2.6 0.5 8.6 8.2
Consensus -2.2 0.0 8.5 8.2
History
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
30 days ago -1.5 0.6 8.5 8.2
60 days ago -1.4 0.6 8.6 8.2
90 days ago -2.0 - 8.6 8.2

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing output, annual variation in %.

11 Manufacturing output, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 60

 Chile September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt

% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABIF -1.9 -2.0 38.1 40.9
AGPV -2.0 -2.0 - -
Banchile Inversiones -2.4 -2.1 39.5 41.2
Barclays Capital -2.2 -2.2 39.1 40.2
BCI -3.7 -2.6 - -
BNP Paribas -1.8 -2.1 39.6 41.1
BTG Pactual -2.1 -2.1 38.9 42.3
Capital Economics -4.0 -3.5 38.5 39.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.5 -1.5 - -
Credicorp Capital -2.2 -2.2 38.2 40.6
DekaBank -1.9 -1.8 - -
EIU -1.9 -1.8 37.6 40.0
Fitch Ratings -2.7 -2.2 39.7 41.0 15 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts
Fitch Solutions -2.3 -2.0 40.5 39.4
Fynsa -1.8 -2.0 - -
Gemines -2.3 -2.2 41.0 42.5
Goldman Sachs -2.2 -2.2 40.2 41.7
HSBC -1.9 -1.5 38.6 41.4
Inversiones Security -3.0 -2.5 40.0 40.0
JPMorgan -1.9 -2.2 - -
Moody's Analytics -0.9 -3.6 37.9 39.3
Oxford Economics -1.0 -1.1 35.6 35.9
Pezco Economics -2.1 -1.8 39.5 40.8
Rabobank -3.0 -2.0 37.0 38.7
Santander -2.5 -3.0 39.5 41.0
UBS -2.1 -1.9 38.4 41.0
Public Forecasts
CAF -1.9 -1.9 - -
OECD -2.0 -2.1 - -
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Summary
Minimum -4.0 -3.6 35.6 35.9
Maximum -0.9 -1.1 41.0 42.5
Median -2.1 -2.1 39.0 40.8
Consensus -2.2 -2.1 38.9 40.4
History
30 days ago -2.2 -2.2 38.8 40.4
60 days ago -2.1 -2.1 38.6 40.2
90 days ago -2.2 -1.9 38.8 40.3

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the DIPRES (Dirección de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 61

 Chile September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABIF 4.3 3.0 7.6 3.5
Actinver 4.5 3.2 7.6 3.8
AGPV - - 7.5 4.1
Allianz - - 8.3 4.8
Banchile Inversiones 4.2 3.0 - -
Barclays Capital 4.2 3.5 - -
BCI 3.8 2.8 - -
BICE Inversiones 4.1 3.1 - -
BNP Paribas - - 8.3 4.1
BTG Pactual 4.4 3.0 7.7 3.4
Capital Economics 4.2 3.7 7.5 3.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.4 3.5 7.7 3.8
Corficolombiana 4.8 3.0 8.2 -
Credicorp Capital 4.2 3.0 7.6 3.3 19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %

DekaBank - - 7.5 3.4

EIU 4.0 3.0 7.5 3.4
EmergingMarketWatch 5.0 3.0 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 7.8 3.6
Fitch Ratings - - 8.8 4.0
Fitch Solutions 4.2 3.0 7.7 3.3
FrontierView - - 7.7 3.3
Fynsa 4.1 3.2 7.7 3.5
Gemines 3.7 3.3 7.6 3.2
Goldman Sachs 5.1 3.5 7.8 4.4
HSBC 4.3 3.4 8.1 3.7
Inversiones Security 4.0 3.0 7.6 3.3
Itaú Unibanco 3.9 3.0 - -
JPMorgan 4.0 3.6 7.6 3.5
Julius Baer - - 6.8 2.9
Kiel Institute 4.0 3.7 7.5 3.5
Moody's Analytics 4.5 2.9 7.6 3.1 20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 4.1 2.5 7.7 3.1
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 7.5 3.2
Pezco Economics 7.8 5.9 10.3 6.8
Rabobank 4.1 3.0 7.7 3.2
S&P Global Ratings 4.8 3.2 7.9 3.7
Santander 4.5 3.0 7.7 3.7
Scotiabank 3.7 3.0 7.4 3.0
Standard Chartered - - 7.7 3.5
STF Capital 3.9 3.1 7.4 3.0
Torino Capital 4.2 - 7.6 -
UBS 3.9 3.2 7.5 3.2
Public Forecasts
CAF 5.1 3.3 7.7 4.3
OECD - - 8.1 4.1
Summary
Minimum 3.7 2.5 6.8 2.9
Maximum 7.8 5.9 10.3 6.8 21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Median 4.2 3.1 7.7 3.5
Consensus 4.4 3.2 7.8 3.7
History
30 days ago 4.4 3.2 7.8 3.6
60 days ago 4.8 3.2 7.9 3.7
90 days ago 5.0 3.2 8.0 3.9

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 62

 Chile September 2023

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate

Individual Forecasts 2023 2024

ABIF 8.25 4.00
Actinver 8.25 4.75
AGPV 8.50 5.00
Banchile Inversiones 7.75 4.50
Barclays Capital 7.75 5.50
BCI 8.50 4.50
BICE Inversiones 7.50 4.50
BTG Pactual 7.75 4.25
Capital Economics 7.50 4.75
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.25 5.50
Corficolombiana 8.00 4.50
Credicorp Capital 8.00 5.00
EIU 7.50 4.50
Fitch Solutions 8.00 4.50
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst Fynsa 7.50 3.75
Gemines 7.50 4.50
Goldman Sachs 8.00 5.25
HSBC 7.75 3.75
Inversiones Security 7.50 4.50
Itaú Unibanco 7.25 4.50
JPMorgan 7.75 -
Oxford Economics 7.75 4.25
Pantheon Macroeconomics 8.00 4.00
Rabobank 8.00 5.75
S&P Global Ratings 9.00 5.50
Santander 7.75 4.50
Scotiabank 7.50 4.00
STF Capital 7.50 4.50
Torino Capital 8.50 -
UBS 7.25 4.50
Public Forecasts
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution CAF 9.00 6.25
Summary
Minimum 7.25 3.75
Maximum 9.00 6.25
Median 7.75 4.50
Consensus 7.90 4.66
History
30 days ago 8.08 4.70
60 days ago 8.48 4.85
90 days ago 8.52 4.92

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas).
Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INE.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop). Source: BCCh.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 63

 Chile September 2023

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD Exchange Rate | CLP per USD

Individual Forecasts 2023 2024

ABIF 845 840
Actinver 810 815
AGPV 800 800
Banchile Inversiones 830 810
Barclays Capital 840 880
BCI 820 790
BICE Inversiones 834 810
BTG Pactual 830 810
Capital Economics 825 775
Citigroup Global Mkts 782 770
Credicorp Capital 830 780
EIU 854 838
Fitch Ratings 810 800
Fitch Solutions 825 775
Fynsa 795 770
29 | CLP per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst 30 | CLP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
Gemines 812 775
HSBC 800 -
Inversiones Security 825 825
Itaú Unibanco 830 850
JPMorgan 860 -
Moody's Analytics 815 798
Oxford Economics 824 859
Pezco Economics 812 819
Rabobank 817 824
S&P Global Ratings 825 850
Santander 850 860
Scotiabank 850 870
Standard Chartered 840 840
STF Capital 850 800
UBS 835 820
Public Forecasts
31 | CLP per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution
CAF 815 800
Summary
Minimum 782 770
Maximum 860 880
Median 825 810
Consensus 825 816
History
30 days ago 819 807
60 days ago 815 806
90 days ago 821 807

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 64

 Chile September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABIF -3.7 -4.0 13.6 15.3
Banchile Inversiones -4.3 -3.8 - -
Barclays Capital -3.2 -2.8 17.2 15.6
BICE Inversiones -7.6 -4.3 - -
BNP Paribas -4.0 -4.1 - -
BTG Pactual -3.1 -3.8 14.3 8.5
Capital Economics 1.0 -0.8 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.5 -2.0 16.1 16.6
Credicorp Capital -3.4 -3.5 - -
DekaBank -3.6 -3.4 - -
EIU -3.6 -3.4 18.2 17.5
Euromonitor Int. -2.7 -5.3 - -
Fitch Ratings -3.5 -3.3 12.9 12.0
Fitch Solutions -3.6 -4.3 16.9 11.6 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Gemines -5.1 -4.7 16.8 17.2
Goldman Sachs -4.7 -4.2 9.1 8.0
HSBC -4.6 -3.5 9.7 11.9
Inversiones Security -2.5 -3.0 18.3 18.0
JPMorgan -3.9 -3.2 - -
Moody's Analytics 0.8 -1.1 - -
Oxford Economics -0.8 -2.6 18.8 8.9
Pezco Economics -3.9 -3.2 6.3 8.8
Rabobank -1.5 -3.0 18.6 15.2
Santander -3.5 -3.0 13.3 12.7
Standard Chartered -3.6 -3.7 - -
Torino Capital -1.7 - 19.4 -
UBS -3.5 -3.2 18.4 20.2
Public Forecasts
CAF -3.8 -3.8 13.3 10.9
OECD -3.9 -4.4 - -
Summary 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Minimum -7.6 -5.3 6.3 8.5
Maximum 1.0 -0.8 19.4 20.2
Median -3.6 -3.4 16.4 12.7
Consensus -3.2 -3.4 15.3 14.5
History
30 days ago -3.3 -3.4 16.4 14.9
60 days ago -3.4 -3.4 15.2 13.5
90 days ago -3.5 -3.5 14.8 12.8

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 65

 Chile September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
ABIF 99.5 103.4 85.9 88.1
Barclays Capital 96.0 100.8 78.8 85.2
BTG Pactual 96.6 94.1 82.2 85.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 103.5 106.6 87.4 90.0
EIU 102.1 104.1 83.9 86.6
Euromonitor Int. 102.7 116.1 - -
Fitch Ratings 99.5 100.8 86.6 88.8
Fitch Solutions 102.6 108.2 85.7 96.6
Gemines 96.4 103.1 79.6 85.9
Goldman Sachs 99.0 102.0 88.1 90.8
HSBC 97.1 104.9 87.3 93.0
Inversiones Security 96.2 101.0 77.9 83.0
Oxford Economics 96.4 84.7 77.6 75.7
Pezco Economics 101.5 104.5 95.2 95.6 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Rabobank 100.6 101.9 82.0 86.7
Santander 96.7 96.6 83.4 83.9
Torino Capital 102.9 - 83.5 -
UBS 102.4 108.1 84.0 87.8
Public Forecasts
CAF 97.8 100.6 84.5 89.7
Summary
Minimum 96.0 84.7 77.6 75.7
Maximum 103.5 116.1 95.2 96.6
Median 99.5 102.5 84.0 87.8
Consensus 99.4 102.3 84.1 87.8
History
30 days ago 100.9 103.3 84.5 88.4
60 days ago 100.8 102.9 85.6 89.5
90 days ago 101.2 102.1 86.4 89.3

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 66

 Chile September 2023

External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

International Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV 42.0 44.0 - -
Barclays Capital 45.2 47.2 259 273
BNP Paribas 44.7 44.1 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 39.3 39.3 - -
EIU 44.3 48.9 233 238
Euromonitor Int. 42.2 42.6 - -
Fitch Ratings 45.6 49.3 - -
Fitch Solutions 47.1 51.4 - -
Gemines 43.0 46.0 244 250
Goldman Sachs 40.5 42.1 - -
HSBC - - 271 290
Inversiones Security 44.5 - 233 -
JPMorgan 49.0 49.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 40.1 41.3 - - 41 | Int. Reserves | evol. of forecasts
Oxford Economics 39.4 39.2 243 250
Rabobank - - 242 243
UBS 39.9 42.9 - -
Summary
Minimum 39.3 39.2 233 238
Maximum 49.0 51.4 271 290
Median 43.0 44.1 243 250
Consensus 43.1 44.8 247 257
History
30 days ago 42.8 44.2 247 259
60 days ago 42.4 44.1 248 259
90 days ago 41.4 42.7 244 257

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 67

 Chile September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Chile in the Region

Official name: Republic of Chile Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Santiago (6.7 m)
Other cities: Valparaíso (0.9 m)
Concepción (0.9 m)
Area (km2): 756,102
Population (million, 2019 est.): 19.7
Population density (per km2, 2019): 26.1
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 79.4
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 3.6
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-3

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 16.0
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 134
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 82.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 17.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 419
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,503
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 76.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 72.0
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 11.3
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 357
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 83.4

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 481
Railways (km): 7,282
Roadways (km): 77,801 Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Valparaíso, San Antonio Primary markets | share in %

Political Data
President: Gabriel Boric
Last elections: 21 November 2021
Next elections: 2025
Central Bank President: Rosanna Costa Exports Imports

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: A2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: A Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: A- Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Market-oriented policy • High dependence on copper

• Structurally sound and prudent exports
Exports Imports
fiscal policy • Relatively small domestic
• Free trade agreements with market
major economic areas • Political uncertainty surrounding
new constitution

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 68

 Colombia September 2023

Colombia
Outlook stable
Colombia

• The economy weakened more than expected in Q2, nearly stagnating

year on year and contracting quarter on quarter. The deceleration in year-
on-year GDP growth was caused by slowing exports and private spending
plus a sharper fall in fixed investment. Activity was likely knocked by the
highest interest rates since the 1990s; banks issued less monthly credit
to consumers in April and May than in Q1 on average. Heading into Q3,
the economy is expected to gather steam but remain weak. Inflation and
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages interest rates remain high, contributing to a sharper fall in manufacturing
activity in July–August than in Q2. In other news, the President said he
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
Population (million): 50.3 52.2 53.7 would seek to renegotiate a trade agreement with the U.S., which he
GDP (USD bn): 304 368 462 stated was hurting agricultural output and employment. Shortly afterward,
GDP per capita (USD): 6,048 7,052 8,595
GDP growth (%): 2.3 3.5 3.0 the CEA—a trade group representing U.S. firms—said the remarks could
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.7 -4.6 -3.4 deter U.S. investment in Colombia.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 59.5 59.6 56.0
Inflation (%): 3.2 9.1 3.5
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.5 -4.6 -3.5 • GDP growth will fall far below its 10-year pre-pandemic average of 3.7%
External Debt (% of GDP) 51.3 52.8 47.8
this year. This will be due to double-digit inflation and a rising policy rate.
Matthew Cunningham Growth will be further hurt by weaker exports. Key factors to watch include
Economist the President’s policies and El Niño, which could stoke inflation and hurt
agricultural GDP. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.4%
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.8%
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts in 2024.

• Inflation eased to 11.4% in August from 11.8% in July. It should continue to

cool ahead as domestic demand weakens and the base effect toughens.
That said, inflation is seen remaining above the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0%
target even at the end of 2024. Key factors to watch include commodity
prices, fiscal stimulus and the strength of the peso. FocusEconomics
panelists see consumer prices rising 11.5% on average in 2023, which
is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 5.8% on
average in 2024.
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.
• On 31 July, the Central Bank held its benchmark interest rate at 13.25%—
the highest level since 1999—for the second consecutive month. The
Bank’s next meeting is set for 29 September. The Consensus is for the
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts Bank to reduce the benchmark rate by roughly 125 basis points from its
current level by end-2023. Unexpectedly sticky core inflation is an upside
risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the policy interest rate ending 2023
at 11.97% and ending 2024 at 7.26%.

• The peso traded at COP 4,093 per USD on 7 September, depreciating

0.4% month on month. The COP is seen losing further ground by the
end of 2023, as the Central Bank lowers its policy rate, before stabilizing
in 2024. Oil prices and the President’s policy agenda are key factors to
watch. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at COP
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months. 4,207 per USD and ending 2024 at COP 4,201 per USD.
2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 69

 Colombia September 2023

REAL SECTOR | Economy weakens more than expected in Q2

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP growth waned to 0.3% year on year in the second quarter, from 3.0%
in the first quarter. Q2’s reading marked the worst result since Q4 2020. On
a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted
1.0% in Q2, contrasting the previous quarter’s 2.2% expansion and
undershooting market expectations.

The downturn was driven by weakening private consumption, fixed investment

and net exports. Household spending growth fell to 0.7% in Q2, marking the
weakest expansion since Q3 2020 (Q1: +3.1% yoy), likely due to high inflation
and interest rates. Fixed investment contracted 7.8% in Q2, marking the worst
reading since Q4 2020 (Q1: -0.9% yoy), weighed on by high interest rates
and, potentially, by political uncertainty. Exports of goods and services growth
Note: Year-on-year changes and quarter-on-quarter of GDP in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus eased to 2.5% in Q2 (Q1: +2.6% yoy).
Consensus Forecast.

Meanwhile, imports of goods and services fell at a steeper pace of 14.5% in

Q2 (Q1: -7.6% yoy), and public consumption growth rebounded to 2.3% in Q2
(Q1: -0.3% yoy).

Turning to Q3, economic activity is likely to remain weak in the face of high
inflation and interest rates, and anemic demand from Colombia’s main trading
partners. Rising political instability may also weigh on investment.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs were downbeat on the outlook:

“Domestic demand is now showing consistent signs of moderation following

the strong prints in 2021-1H2022. Going forward, we expect economic
activity to moderate on the back of high inflation, tighter financial conditions,
and a weaker impulse from external activity. Moreover, still elevated policy
uncertainty emanating from the cumulative impact of several tax reforms and
Economic Activity | variation in %
weak business sentiment are likely to impinge further on private investment,
while slow fiscal execution by central government ministries and agencies
may bear on public investment.”

FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.4% in 2023, which is

unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.8% in 2024.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity growth gains steam in June

Economic activity expanded 1.7% year on year in June (May: +0.1% yoy). The
upturn was largely driven by growth in the agriculture and services sectors.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity rose at a faster rate

of 1.1% in June (May: +0.6% mom), the best result since January. Meanwhile,
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of economic activity in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of economic activity
coming in at 2.9% in June, down from May’s 3.5%.

Purchasing Managers’ Index REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing activity falls more sharply in August
The Davivienda Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
fell to 46.8 in August from July’s 48.4. August’s result marked the worst
performance since May 2021. As such, the index fell further below the 50.0
no-change threshold, signaling a sharper deterioration in manufacturing
sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.

Demand fell at the sharpest pace since mid-2021, leading output to decline at
the sharpest rate since November 2022. One reason for this was high interest
rates, according to respondents of the PMI survey. The decline in activity came
despite the sharpest decline in input and output prices in the series’ history.
Meanwhile, weak activity led manufacturers to trim their headcounts for the
Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate
an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 point to a
deterioration.
Source: S&P Global and Davivienda.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 70

 Colombia September 2023

fourth consecutive month. Finally, business sentiment remained optimistic,

buoyed by hopes of lower inflation and interest rates ahead.

Davivienda’s Andrés Langebaek Rueda said:

“As we have previously mentioned, the slowdown of the Colombian economy

this year is inevitable given the rise in interest rates aimed at correcting the
excess demand observed in the previous year. Let us remember that during
2022 Latin America grew at a rate of 3.9% while Colombia did so at 7.3%.”

FocusEconomics panelists see manufacturing production contracting 0.5%

in 2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 1.6% in 2024.

REAL SECTOR | Consumer confidence deteriorates in July

Consumer Sentiment According to a survey elaborated by Fedesarrollo, consumer confidence fell
to minus 17.4 in July from June’s minus 14.1. As a result, the index moved
further below the 0-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism
among consumers.

Every component of the consumer confidence index worsened in July, with

the exception of consumers’ views of their financial situations compared to a
year ago. Consumers became less optimistic about their financial situations
a year ahead. They also became more pessimistic about their likelihoods of
purchasing durable goods and about the state of the economy in one year.

FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption expanding 0.9% in 2023,

Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic
which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.
Source: Fedesarrollo.
1.8% in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation dips in August

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Inflation came in at 11.4% in August, which was down from July’s 11.8%.
July’s result represented the lowest inflation in a year. The slowdown was due
to a lower rise in prices for food and housing. However, the reading exceeded
market expectations.

The trend pointed up slightly, with annual average inflation coming in at 12.5%
in August (July: 12.4%).

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.70% from the previous month in August,
picking up from the 0.50% rise logged in July.

FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 11.5% on average in

2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). 5.8% on average in 2024.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports contract in July

Merchandise exports sank 54.1% in annual terms in July, contrasting June’s
5.3% increase. July’s figure marked the largest contraction since November
2014. Meanwhile, merchandise imports plunged 30.6% over the same month
last year in July (June: -20.3% yoy), marking the weakest reading since May
2020.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous

month, recording a USD 1.7 billion deficit in July (June 2023: USD 0.7 billion
deficit; July 2022: USD 0.5 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 15.3 billion
deficit in July, compared to the USD 14.0 billion deficit in June.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 71

 Colombia September 2023

Merchandise Trade FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports falling 5.8% in 2023, which
is down by 1.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.6% in 2024.

Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 11.2% in 2023, which is down by
1.6 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.0% in 2024.

Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 7.5 billion in 2023 and a trade deficit of
USD 7.4 billion in 2024.

Note: Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and
imports in %.
Source: National Directorate of Taxes and Customs (DIAN).

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 72

 Colombia September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 48.3 49.4 50.4 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.7 54.3
GDP per capita (USD) 6,924 6,541 5,363 6,241 6,659 6,929 7,569 8,051 8,545 9,189
GDP (USD bn) 334 323 270 319 344 361 399 428 459 499
GDP (COP tn) 988 1,060 998 1,193 1,463 1,582 1,664 1,800 1,940 2,140
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 7.3 -5.9 19.5 22.6 8.1 5.2 8.2 7.8 10.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.6 3.2 -7.3 11.0 7.3 1.4 1.8 2.8 3.1 3.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.5 4.0 -7.6 13.4 9.4 -0.7 1.9 3.3 3.2 3.3
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.0 4.3 -4.1 13.6 7.8 1.2 2.2 3.3 3.5 3.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 4.1 -4.9 14.5 9.5 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.4 5.3 -0.8 9.8 0.3 2.2 2.2 3.3 3.1 2.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.0 2.2 -24.0 17.3 11.4 -2.8 0.7 4.8 3.9 4.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.6 3.1 -22.7 15.9 14.8 1.6 2.7 4.5 4.6 4.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.8 7.3 -19.9 26.7 22.3 -6.6 2.4 4.8 4.2 4.4
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 2.9 1.5 -8.1 16.2 10.7 -0.5 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.5
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.4 8.1 -1.7 12.1 9.0 2.3 - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.0 10.9 16.7 13.8 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -2.5 -7.8 -7.0 -5.3 -4.3 -4.2 -3.7 -3.4 -3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 49.3 50.3 65.1 63.0 61.1 58.9 58.7 58.0 55.4 54.6
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.0 8.7 14.3 11.8 12.1 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.2 3.8 1.6 5.6 13.1 9.1 4.7 3.7 3.4 3.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.2 3.5 2.5 3.5 10.2 11.5 5.8 3.9 3.3 3.3
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 3.2 3.8 1.9 4.4 11.6 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.25 4.25 1.75 3.00 12.00 11.97 7.26 5.64 5.29 5.11
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.54 4.48 1.89 3.21 13.70 12.33 7.52 5.68 5.14 5.83
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.02 6.42 5.76 8.46 13.23 11.60 10.94 9.88 8.89 8.70
Stock Market (ann. var. of MSCI IMI %) -7.9 33.9 -13.9 2.3 4.5 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 3,250 3,277 3,433 3,981 4,810 4,207 4,201 4,201 4,251 4,335
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 2,956 3,281 3,693 3,743 4,255 4,377 4,172 4,201 4,226 4,293
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -4.6 -3.4 -5.6 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -3.5 -3.4 -3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -14.0 -14.8 -9.3 -18.0 -21.5 -14.2 -14.7 -15.0 -15.7 -17.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -6.4 -9.9 -8.9 -14.0 -12.0 -7.5 -7.4 -5.7 -6.0 -6.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 43.0 40.7 32.3 42.7 59.6 56.1 58.7 62.8 63.7 66.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 49.4 50.5 41.2 56.7 71.7 63.6 66.1 68.6 69.7 72.9
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.1 -5.4 -20.5 32.3 39.5 -5.8 4.6 7.0 1.4 3.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.1 2.3 -18.5 37.7 26.3 -11.2 4.0 3.7 1.7 4.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 11.3 14.0 7.5 9.4 17.0 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 48.4 53.2 59.0 58.6 57.3 58.0 59.7 63.7 62.4 64.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 11.8 12.6 17.2 12.4 9.6 11.0 10.8 11.1 10.7 10.7
External Debt (USD bn) 132 139 155 171 184 193 205 211 221 230
External Debt (% of GDP) 39.6 42.9 57.2 53.8 53.6 53.4 51.5 49.2 48.1 46.0
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 2.0 3.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 0.7 1.7 2.3 2.8
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.9 -1.7 2.2 -1.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.2 4.0 3.1 0.7 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 14.6 7.9 -0.9 -7.8 -10.3 -11.1 -8.0 2.1 3.2 4.5
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 6.9 3.4 -0.5 -4.8 -4.4 -1.7 -0.8 2.0 2.5 3.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.8 9.8 11.7 10.2 10.7 10.4 11.6 10.6 10.6 10.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 11.4 13.1 13.3 12.1 10.5 8.9 6.7 6.1 5.3 4.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 10.8 12.6 13.3 12.4 11.0 9.4 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.8
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 10.00 12.00 13.00 13.25 13.04 12.03 10.41 9.22 8.14 7.08
90-day DTF (%, eop) 10.90 13.70 13.00 13.00 12.91 12.21 11.24 10.28 9.14 8.00
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 4,532 4,810 4,627 4,191 4,141 4,156 4,185 4,180 4,168 4,149
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 4,374 4,808 4,760 4,432 4,166 4,148 4,171 4,183 4,174 4,158
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -6.0 -4.2 -3.0 -3.7 -4.0 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -6.2 -4.9 -3.4 -2.5 -3.5 -3.9 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -4.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.6 -2.8 -1.9 -1.7 -2.9 -2.4 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 15.7 13.9 13.4 12.8 15.3 13.8 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 19.3 16.7 15.4 14.5 18.2 16.2 - - - -
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 0.5 0.9 5.1 2.6 1.4 -0.9 0.1 1.7 - -
Economic Activity Index (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %) -1.6 2.1 2.2 -1.6 0.1 -0.8 0.6 1.1 - -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 4.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 -1.9 -6.4 -3.1 -4.8 - -
Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 47.3 51.1 48.5 49.8 51.5 52.6 49.9 49.8 48.4 46.8
Unemployment (% of active population) 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.5 -
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold) -24.8 -22.3 -28.6 -27.8 -28.5 -28.8 -22.8 -14.1 -17.4 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.77 1.26 1.78 1.66 1.05 0.78 0.44 0.30 0.50 0.70
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 12.5 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.3 12.8 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.4
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 4,810 4,810 4,632 4,808 4,627 4,669 4,409 4,191 3,923 4,085
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.7 4.6 -2.8 -0.2 -7.3 -31.5 -3.5 5.3 -54.1 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. Due to the absence of a standard definition, the Consensus Forecast for public debt contains a range of
definitions.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 73

 Colombia September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2011 - 2027 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
Acciones y Valores 1.4 1.8
AGPV 1.5 2.0
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 1.2 2.2
Allianz 1.8 1.9
Asobancaria 0.9 2.0
Banco Agrario de Colombia 1.1 1.5
Banco Davivienda 1.1 1.4
Banco de Bogotá 1.5 1.6
Bancolombia 1.2 0.9
BancTrust & Co. 1.3 2.0
Barclays Capital 1.2 2.5
BBVA Research 1.2 1.5
Capital Economics 2.8 1.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 1.8
Corficolombiana 1.2 2.1
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts Credicorp Capital 1.3 2.2
DekaBank 1.6 3.0
Ecoanalítica 1.5 1.9
Econosignal 1.3 2.0
EIU 1.6 2.8
EmergingMarketWatch 1.0 2.1
Euromonitor Int. 1.3 1.6
Fedesarrollo 1.5 2.0
Fitch Ratings 1.5 1.2
Fitch Solutions 1.7 2.0
FrontierView 1.4 2.3
Goldman Sachs 1.3 2.0
HSBC 1.5 2.0
Itaú Unibanco 1.3 1.6
JPMorgan 1.5 1.4
Julius Baer 1.0 -0.9
Kiel Institute 1.2 1.6
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution Moody's Analytics 1.5 2.3
Oxford Economics 0.9 0.1
Pantheon Macroeconomics 1.3 2.0
Pezco Economics 1.2 1.5
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 1.5 2.9
S&P Global Ratings 1.4 2.0
Scotiabank Colpatria 1.8 2.6
Standard Chartered 1.2 1.4
Torino Capital 1.3 -
UBS 1.6 2.5
Public Forecasts
CAF 1.0 2.2
CEPAL 1.2 1.9
OECD 1.5 1.8
World Bank 1.7 2.0
Summary
Minimum 0.9 -0.9
Maximum 2.8 3.0
Median 1.3 2.0
Consensus 1.4 1.8
History
30 days ago 1.4 1.9
Notes and sources
60 days ago 1.4 1.9
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. 90 days ago 1.2 2.1

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, real annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 74

 Colombia September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Acciones y Valores 1.4 1.8 -8.3 -4.6
Asobancaria 0.9 2.0 - -
Banco Agrario de Colombia 0.8 0.6 - -
Banco Davivienda 0.7 - - -
Bancolombia 0.3 0.2 - -
BancTrust & Co. 0.8 1.5 -1.1 0.0
Barclays Capital 2.0 3.2 -5.7 1.1
BBVA Research 0.2 2.1 -5.1 1.0
Capital Economics 0.2 1.6 -5.5 -0.6
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.2 2.0 -0.8 0.0
Corficolombiana 1.1 2.9 -1.0 -1.2
Credicorp Capital 0.8 1.8 - -
Ecoanalítica 1.1 2.7 - -
EIU 0.9 3.0 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Euromonitor Int. 0.8 2.3 - -
Fedesarrollo 1.2 2.0 - -
Fitch Solutions 1.4 2.0 - -
FrontierView 1.3 2.6 - -
Goldman Sachs 1.2 2.7 -8.1 -1.6
HSBC 1.2 2.2 -0.6 2.5
Moody's Analytics 1.2 2.5 0.8 2.4
Oxford Economics -0.5 -4.3 -5.4 5.5
Pezco Economics 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.6
S&P Global Ratings 0.8 1.6 - -
Scotiabank Colpatria -0.4 2.6 -2.2 0.0
Torino Capital 0.2 - 0.8 -
UBS 1.5 2.7 - -
Public Forecasts
CAF - - -3.1 2.1
OECD 0.8 0.8 -1.5 0.7
Summary 8 | Investment | variation in %
Minimum -0.5 -4.3 -8.3 -4.6
Maximum 2.0 3.2 1.7 5.5
Median 0.9 2.0 -1.8 0.7
Consensus 0.9 1.8 -2.8 0.7
History
30 days ago 0.8 1.9 -0.3 1.4
60 days ago 0.8 2.0 -0.6 1.7
90 days ago 0.8 2.2 0.4 1.8

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 75

 Colombia September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Asobancaria - - 10.9 11.0
Banco Agrario de Colombia -3.2 -0.2 10.6 11.1
Bancolombia - - 10.9 11.8
BancTrust & Co. -1.3 -0.7 11.2 10.9
BBVA Research - - 10.7 11.4
Capital Economics 1.9 2.0 10.6 9.6
Corficolombiana - - 11.7 11.6
Credicorp Capital - - 11.9 11.5
EIU 5.0 5.8 10.2 9.8
Euromonitor Int. -2.3 1.0 11.5 11.2
Fedesarrollo - - 12.0 -
Fitch Ratings - - 12.0 12.0
Fitch Solutions - - 10.6 10.8
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
FrontierView - - 11.4 10.5
Moody's Analytics -3.3 2.4 - -
Oxford Economics -1.7 0.7 10.1 10.1
Pezco Economics 1.2 1.8 11.2 11.6
Positiva Compañía de Seguros - - 11.5 11.0
S&P Global Ratings - - 11.3 10.9
Torino Capital - - 11.4 -
UBS - - 10.5 9.5
Public Forecasts
CAF - - 10.4 10.7
OECD - - 10.6 10.5
Summary
Minimum -3.3 -0.7 10.1 9.5
Maximum 5.0 5.8 12.0 12.0
Median -1.5 1.4 11.1 11.0
Consensus -0.5 1.6 11.1 10.9
History 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
30 days ago -0.4 1.9 11.1 10.8
60 days ago -0.1 2.0 11.3 10.9
90 days ago 0.1 2.5 11.3 10.8

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing production, annual variation in %.

11 Manufacturing production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 76

 Colombia September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt

% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria -4.3 -4.5 - -
Asobancaria -4.3 -5.0 55.8 57.4
Banco Agrario de Colombia -4.3 -4.5 55.8 57.1
Banco Davivienda -4.3 - - -
Banco de Bogotá -4.5 -3.9 - -
Bancolombia -4.4 -4.8 - -
BancTrust & Co. -4.3 -3.3 - -
Barclays Capital -4.1 -3.8 56.3 57.1
BBVA Research -4.0 -3.7 58.3 57.5
Capital Economics -5.5 -5.0 65.5 64.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.1 -4.3 55.7 57.0
Corficolombiana -4.3 -4.5 58.7 -
Credicorp Capital -4.3 -4.5 61.5 62.2
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
DekaBank -4.2 -4.1 - -
EIU -4.2 -4.1 - -
Fedesarrollo -4.4 -5.5 60.2 62.1
Fitch Ratings -3.6 -3.7 54.1 55.4
Fitch Solutions - - 59.2 58.1
Goldman Sachs -5.1 -3.9 - -
HSBC -4.2 -3.8 - -
JPMorgan -4.3 -4.5 - -
Moody's Analytics - - 61.6 63.5
Oxford Economics -4.8 -4.4 61.4 62.7
Pezco Economics -4.2 -2.9 57.6 49.1
Scotiabank Colpatria -4.3 -4.5 - -
UBS -4.1 -4.0 62.4 59.6
Public Forecasts
CAF -4.3 -4.5 56.7 56.4
Summary
Minimum -5.5 -5.5 54.1 49.1 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Maximum -3.6 -2.9 65.5 64.5
Median -4.3 -4.3 58.7 57.8
Consensus -4.3 -4.2 58.9 58.7
History
30 days ago -4.3 -4.1 59.8 59.6
60 days ago -4.3 -4.0 60.7 60.5
90 days ago -4.3 -3.9 61.2 60.5

17 | Public Debt | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the Colombian
Ministry of Finance & Public Credit (MINHACIENDA). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

15 Central government balance, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: MINHACIENDA.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 77

 Colombia September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices

variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Acciones y Valores 8.7 4.0 11.5 5.4
AGPV 9.0 4.5 - -
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 8.2 4.1 - -
Allianz - - 11.8 5.8
Asobancaria 8.9 5.2 11.6 6.3
Banco Agrario de Colombia 9.8 6.3 11.8 7.7
Banco Davivienda 9.7 4.9 11.7 6.4
Banco de Bogotá 8.9 4.5 9.9 4.9
Bancolombia 9.0 5.3 11.7 7.3
BancTrust & Co. 8.7 4.5 11.5 4.9
Barclays Capital 8.2 4.0 11.4 5.2
BBVA Research 9.0 5.1 11.6 6.6
Capital Economics 9.6 4.2 11.5 5.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.0 3.7 11.2 4.9 19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
Corficolombiana 9.6 5.6 11.6 7.3
Credicorp Capital 8.4 4.0 10.9 6.2
DekaBank - - 11.5 4.2
Ecoanalítica 9.0 4.9 11.6 5.8
Econosignal 9.2 4.4 11.7 5.9
EIU 7.3 4.2 11.5 4.0
EmergingMarketWatch 9.9 5.2 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 11.6 5.9
Fedesarrollo 9.2 5.0 - -
Fitch Ratings - - 11.5 6.5
Fitch Solutions 9.1 4.2 11.6 6.0
FrontierView - - 11.2 6.1
Goldman Sachs 9.1 4.6 11.6 6.1
HSBC 9.0 4.7 11.4 5.2
Itaú Unibanco 9.1 4.5 - -
JPMorgan 8.6 4.7 11.0 5.7
Kiel Institute 8.4 4.4 11.5 4.5 20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
Moody's Analytics 9.5 5.0 11.6 6.0
Oxford Economics 8.8 3.9 11.5 5.4
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 11.2 4.2
Pezco Economics 9.7 6.3 11.4 8.0
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 8.9 4.5 11.6 5.8
S&P Global Ratings 11.4 4.3 11.4 4.3
Scotiabank Colpatria 8.6 4.2 11.5 5.0
Standard Chartered - - 11.6 5.1
Torino Capital 10.0 - 13.1 -
UBS 9.3 5.1 11.8 6.4
Public Forecasts
CAF 8.9 5.0 11.0 7.0
OECD - - 11.8 6.1
Summary
Minimum 7.3 3.7 9.9 4.0
Maximum 11.4 6.3 13.1 8.0
Median 9.0 4.5 11.5 5.8 21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Consensus 9.1 4.7 11.5 5.8
History
30 days ago 8.9 4.7 11.4 5.7
60 days ago 8.9 4.6 11.4 5.7
90 days ago 9.0 4.6 11.3 5.6

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 78

 Colombia September 2023

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate

Individual Forecasts 2023 2024

Acciones y Valores 10.75 6.50
AGPV 12.00 7.00
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 11.50 5.50
Asobancaria 12.25 8.25
Banco Agrario de Colombia 13.25 10.00
Banco Davivienda 12.50 -
Banco de Bogotá 12.25 7.50
Bancolombia 12.50 8.50
BancTrust & Co. 12.00 7.00
Barclays Capital 12.00 7.00
BBVA Research 12.50 7.00
CABI 11.00 8.00
Capital Economics 12.25 7.25
Citigroup Global Mkts 11.25 5.75
Corficolombiana 12.00 6.00
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst Credicorp Capital 11.25 7.00
Ecoanalítica 12.50 7.25
Econosignal 11.50 6.00
EIU 12.75 8.50
Fedesarrollo 11.50 6.50
Fitch Solutions 12.25 7.00
Goldman Sachs 11.50 7.00
HSBC 12.00 6.75
Itaú Unibanco 12.25 7.00
JPMorgan 11.75 -
Moody's Analytics 13.00 8.75
Oxford Economics 12.75 9.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 11.00 6.00
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 12.50 7.50
S&P Global Ratings 13.25 9.00
Scotiabank Colpatria 12.25 5.75
Torino Capital 9.00 -
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution UBS 12.25 7.50
Public Forecasts
CAF 11.75 7.25
Summary
Minimum 9.00 5.50
Maximum 13.25 10.00
Median 12.13 7.00
Consensus 11.97 7.26
History
30 days ago 11.89 7.24
60 days ago 11.79 7.23
90 days ago 11.65 6.97

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep,
Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 79

 Colombia September 2023

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD Exchange Rate | COP per USD
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
Acciones y Valores 4,280 3,900
AGPV 4,300 4,300
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 4,000 3,800
Asobancaria 4,100 3,800
Banco Agrario de Colombia 4,035 3,950
Banco Davivienda 4,270 -
Banco de Bogotá 4,100 4,182
Bancolombia 4,165 4,280
BancTrust & Co. 4,331 4,571
Barclays Capital 4,000 4,250
BBVA Research 4,300 4,550
Capital Economics 4,500 4,200
Citigroup Global Mkts 4,128 4,043
Corficolombiana 4,137 4,157
Credicorp Capital 4,300 4,500
29 | COP per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst 30 | COP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst Ecoanalítica 4,489 3,994
Econosignal 4,180 4,200
EIU 4,125 4,071
Fitch Ratings 4,500 4,500
Fitch Solutions 4,350 4,400
HSBC 3,950 -
Itaú Unibanco 4,100 4,300
JPMorgan 4,400 -
Moody's Analytics 4,104 4,229
Oxford Economics 3,807 3,932
Pezco Economics 4,137 4,303
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 4,200 4,186
S&P Global Ratings 4,350 4,500
Scotiabank Colpatria 4,250 4,316
Standard Chartered 4,050 4,100
UBS 4,500 4,420
Public Forecasts
31 | COP per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution CAF 4,185 3,900
Summary
Minimum 3,807 3,800
Maximum 4,500 4,571
Median 4,183 4,200
Consensus 4,207 4,201
History
30 days ago 4,294 4,306
60 days ago 4,399 4,360
90 days ago 4,605 4,515

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 80

 Colombia September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria -4.0 -4.0 - -
Asobancaria -3.4 -3.7 - -
Banco Agrario de Colombia -4.1 -3.3 - -
Banco Davivienda -4.1 - -7.0 -
Banco de Bogotá -4.2 -3.9 - -
Bancolombia -3.4 -3.3 - -
BancTrust & Co. -4.2 -4.1 -10.6 -12.8
Barclays Capital -3.6 -3.5 - -
BBVA Research -4.1 -4.3 -4.5 -6.3
Capital Economics -3.8 -3.5 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.7 -2.9 -8.4 -7.7
Corficolombiana -3.8 -3.5 -7.8 -8.0
Credicorp Capital -3.8 -4.1 -7.6 -8.9
DekaBank -4.0 -3.4 - - 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
EIU -4.0 -3.7 -8.7 -8.7
Euromonitor Int. -3.7 -4.3 - -
Fedesarrollo -4.0 -4.1 -3.9 -7.1
Fitch Ratings -4.0 -3.7 -7.6 -8.7
Fitch Solutions -4.1 -3.3 -7.3 -2.0
Goldman Sachs -4.0 -3.4 -11.7 -12.9
HSBC -4.5 -3.8 -12.6 -15.2
JPMorgan -4.0 -3.7 - -
Moody's Analytics -3.3 -3.4 - -
Oxford Economics -4.4 -4.0 -6.0 -1.7
Pezco Economics -4.4 -3.9 -11.3 -10.8
Scotiabank Colpatria -4.0 -3.5 - -
Standard Chartered -4.0 -4.2 - -
Torino Capital -3.2 - -4.5 -
UBS -3.8 -3.2 -8.2 -8.4
Public Forecasts
CAF -3.9 -3.6 -6.8 -9.0
34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
OECD -4.1 -4.0 - -
Summary
Minimum -4.5 -4.3 -12.6 -15.2
Maximum -3.2 -2.9 -3.9 -1.7
Median -4.0 -3.7 -7.6 -8.5
Consensus -3.9 -3.7 -7.5 -7.4
History
30 days ago -4.0 -3.8 -7.6 -7.4
60 days ago -4.1 -3.8 -8.4 -8.3
90 days ago -4.3 -3.9 -8.6 -8.6

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the
Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: DIAN.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 81

 Colombia September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Banco Davivienda 47.6 - 54.6 -
Bancolombia - - 55.3 51.3
BancTrust & Co. 52.5 51.3 63.1 64.0
BBVA Research 60.1 61.4 64.6 67.7
Citigroup Global Mkts 53.3 54.9 61.7 62.6
Corficolombiana 51.4 56.9 59.2 64.9
Credicorp Capital 53.6 56.4 61.2 65.3
EIU 54.3 59.6 63.0 68.3
Fedesarrollo 52.5 54.7 56.4 61.8
Fitch Ratings 56.8 59.6 64.4 68.3
Fitch Solutions 51.0 62.7 58.3 64.7
Goldman Sachs 57.0 58.9 64.2 64.8
HSBC 55.2 54.1 67.8 69.3
Oxford Economics 59.1 60.7 65.1 62.4 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Pezco Economics 61.0 62.2 72.3 73.0
Torino Capital 68.4 - 72.9 -
UBS 59.9 63.5 68.1 71.9
Public Forecasts
CAF 57.2 61.4 64.0 70.3
Summary
Minimum 47.6 51.3 54.6 51.3
Maximum 68.4 63.5 72.9 73.6
Median 56.0 59.6 64.0 65.3
Consensus 56.1 58.7 63.6 66.1
History
30 days ago 57.2 59.9 64.7 67.3
60 days ago 57.4 59.6 65.9 67.9
90 days ago 57.8 59.7 66.4 68.4

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 82

 Colombia September 2023

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

International Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Acciones y Valores 53.5 54.0 - -
AGPV 58.0 59.0 - -
Banco Davivienda 56.0 - - -
BancTrust & Co. 57.4 56.8 - -
Barclays Capital - - 190 195
Citigroup Global Mkts 58.0 58.0 205 221
Corficolombiana 57.9 58.5 - -
Credicorp Capital 57.5 57.3 - -
EIU 57.3 58.1 181 185
Euromonitor Int. 58.5 60.3 - -
Fitch Ratings 57.3 57.8 - -
Fitch Solutions 57.1 57.0 194 204
Goldman Sachs 58.2 58.6 - -
HSBC - - 192 218 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 58.0 58.0 187 191
Moody's Analytics 62.1 72.0 - -
Oxford Economics 62.6 66.6 208 219
Scotiabank Colpatria 57.0 - - -
Torino Capital 58.3 - 185 -
UBS 60.2 64.4 196 210
Summary
Minimum 53.5 54.0 181 185
Maximum 62.6 72.0 208 221
Median 57.9 58.1 192 207
Consensus 58.0 59.7 193 205
History
30 days ago 58.0 59.7 193 205
60 days ago 58.0 59.5 194 206
90 days ago 57.9 59.6 195 207

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

40 International reserves, months of imports.

41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 83

 Colombia September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Colombia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Colombia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Bogotá (10.6m)
Other cities: Medellín (3.9m)
Cali (2.7m)
Area (km2): 1,138,910
Population (million, 2019 est.): 51.0
Population density (per km2, 2019): 44.8
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.6
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 4.9
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 14.0
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 130
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 64.1
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 13.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5,098
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,661
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 73.4
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 67.9
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 879
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 338
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 93.1

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 836
Railways (km): 2,141
Roadways (km): 206,500 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 24,725 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Cartagena, Buenaventura

Political Data
President: Gustavo Petro
Last elections: 29 May 2022
Next elections: 2026
Central Bank President: Leonardo Villar Gómez Exports Imports

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Plentiful natural resources, • Vulnerability to downward shifts in

including coffee, oil and gas, coal, international commodity prices
gold • Relatively undiversified economy Exports Imports
• Ports on two oceans and large informal sector
• Consolidated financial system • Shortages of skilled labor and
• Thriving tourism sector poor productivity
• High poverty and inequality rates

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 84

 Mexico September 2023

Mexico
Mexico
Outlook improves
• Revised data put GDP growth at 0.8% quarter on quarter in Q2, down
slightly from the preliminary estimate but still robust compared to growth
in the years leading up to the pandemic. Construction boomed 6.5%,
which could be linked to progress on the government’s large infrastructure
projects and nearshoring activity by private firms. In addition, retail, and
cultural and recreation activity grew strongly, underpinned by rising
remittances inflows, low unemployment and wage growth comfortably
outpacing inflation. Turning to Q3, both the manufacturing and non-
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
manufacturing PMIs pointed to improving economic conditions in
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
Population (million): 128 131 134 July–August. In particular, the manufacturing PMI data suggests that
GDP (USD bn): 1,246 1,635 1,914 Mexico’s industrial sector is outperforming the global average, boosted
GDP per capita (USD): 9,751 12,458 14,244
by nearshoring, fading supply constraints for car manufacturers and solid
GDP growth (%): -1.0 2.8 2.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 -3.5 -2.9 export demand from the U.S.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 49.3 49.4 49.9
Inflation (%): 4.2 5.9 3.5
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.3 -1.1 -1.2 • Economic growth should substantially outperform the Latin American
External Debt (% of GDP): 49.9 39.8 39.5 average in 2023 thanks to healthy private consumption growth, rising
Oliver Reynolds car production, resilient goods exports to the U.S. and investment by
Economist firms looking to shift production closer to the U.S. market. GDP forecasts
could be revised up further going forward in light of strong recent data.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.7% in 2023, which is
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts up by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.8%
in 2024.

• Inflation fell to 4.6% in August from July’s 4.8%, the lowest rate since
February 2021. Our panelists expect inflation to average slightly above
the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target range in H2 and
through most of 2024, fueled by robust economic activity, the recent
uptick in global oil prices, brisk wage growth and an expected weakening
of the peso. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.6%
on average in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 4.1% on average in 2024.
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.

• On 10 August, Banxico left the overnight interbank interest rate target at

11.25%, following a similar hold in June. The Bank repeated its intention
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
to “maintain the reference rate at its current level for an extended
period”. Most panelists see Banxico starting to loosen its monetary
stance in Q4 2023, though some see rates unchanged through year-end.
FocusEconomics panelists see the Banxico target rate ending 2023 at
10.82% and ending 2024 at 8.40%.

• The peso traded at MXN 17.55 per USD on 7 September, depreciating

2.7% month on month. Higher U.S. bond yields likely weighed on the peso,
though the currency is still 12% stronger year to date on nearshoring and
strong remittances and inward investment. The peso should weaken from
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months. current levels by end-2023 as the interest rate differential with the U.S.
2024.
narrows. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2023 at MXN
17.99 per USD and ending 2024 at MXN 18.72 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 85

 Mexico September 2023

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI improves in August; non-

manufacturing PMI stable
Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 52.3 in August, up from
July’s 51.3. August’s result marked the strongest reading since April 2022.
Consequently, the index moved further above the 50.0 no-change threshold,
signaling a faster improvement in manufacturing sector operating conditions
compared to the previous month. Faster expansions in new orders and
employment underpinned the reading. Meanwhile, the non-Manufacturing
PMI clocked in at 52.1 in August, unchanged from July.

Taken together, PMI data for July–August suggests that Mexico’s economy
continues to expand in Q3. Strong remittances and tourism are likely
supporting services, while the manufacturing sector is performing particularly
Note: Seasonally-adjusted IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs. well by international standards; the JPM Global Manufacturing PMI stood at
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing
sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration. 49.0 in August. This is likely thanks to strong merchandise export demand
Source: The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano
de Ejecutivos de Finanzas). from the still-robust U.S. economy, and nearshoring activity as some firms
move manufacturing activity from Asia to Mexico in order to secure access to
the U.S. market.

REAL SECTOR | Consumer confidence hits highest reading since March

2019 in August
Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence came in at 46.7 in August, up from July’s 46.3. August’s
result marked the strongest sentiment since March 2019. Despite the uptick,
the index remained below the 50-point threshold, pointing to improving—albeit
still pessimistic—confidence among consumers.

August’s reading was driven by consumers’ improved sentiment regarding

their personal financial conditions, general economic conditions, and their
willingness to make major purchases. Improved consumer confidence so far
in Q3 should support further sequential growth in private consumption in the
quarter, and private consumption is likely to be a key driver of GDP growth
over 2023 as a whole.

Note: Consumer confidence indicator. (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption expanding 3.1% in 2023,
Consumidor).
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
which is up by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
1.9% in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021

in August
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Inflation ticked down to 4.6% in August, which followed July’s 4.8% and was
in line with market expectations. August’s result represented the weakest
inflation rate since February 2021, but was still above the Central Bank’s
2.0%–4.0% target range. Looking at the details of the release, lower price
pressures for clothing and food drove the slowdown.

Annual average inflation fell to 6.8% in August (July: 7.1%). Meanwhile, core
inflation fell to 6.1% in August from July’s 6.6%, marginally below market
expectations.

Finally, consumer prices increased 0.55% over the previous month in August,
accelerating from the 0.48% rise recorded in July.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI). Looking ahead, headline inflation is forecast to average slightly above 4%
for the remainder of this year, buoyed by the recent uptick in global oil prices
but contained by past peso appreciation. August’s inflation data is unlikely to
radically alter the Central Bank’s stance: Banxico is expected to start cutting
rates in Q4 this year or Q1 2024.

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 Mexico September 2023

FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.6% on average in

2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 4.1% on average
in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Banxico leaves policy rate unchanged in August

Monetary Policy Rate | in %
At its meeting on 10 August, the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico
(Banxico) left the overnight interbank interest rate target at 11.25%, following
a similar hold in June.

The decision to hold followed 575 basis points of rate hikes since January
2022, and came against a backdrop of peso appreciation and declining
headline and core inflation which rendered further tightening unnecessary. On
the flipside, it was premature to begin cutting rates given that the economy
has recently performed stronger than the Bank expected and that headline
inflation, core inflation and long-term market inflation expectations are all still
above the Central Bank’s 3.0% target.

Note: Banxico target rate (Tasa objetivo de fondeo bancario) in %.

Concerning forward guidance, the Bank repeated its intention to “maintain
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico). the reference rate at its current level for an extended period”. Most panelists
see Banxico starting to loosen its monetary stance in Q4 2023, though some
panelists see rates unchanged through year-end.

On the outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said:

“The forward guidance did not change; [it] remained conservative and signaling
on hold for long. We expect the MPC to hold the policy rate unchanged until
late 4Q2023, possibly 1H2024.”

In contrast, Itau Unibanco analysts were more dovish:

“Banxico is unlikely to change the monetary policy stance in the September

meeting, but as inflation eases more clearly towards 4Q23 they will start
considering rate cuts. Our base case is a 25-bp rate cut in each of the last
two meetings of the year (November and December), implying an end of year
policy rate of 10.75%.”

FocusEconomics panelists see the Banxico target rate ending 2023 at 10.82%
and ending 2024 at 8.40%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports accelerate in July

Merchandise Trade Merchandise exports climbed 2.9% in annual terms in July (June: +1.1% year-
on-year). While oil exports tumbled, this was more than offset by a rise in
manufacturing exports. In particular, automobile exports rose by more than
a third, boosted by improved global supply chains. Mexico’s merchandise
exports have expanded in the first seven months of the year, in contrast to
the contraction recorded by G20 countries overall. Meanwhile, merchandise
imports decreased 7.7% over the same month last year in July (June: -6.2%
yoy), marking the weakest result since October 2020.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous

month, recording a USD 0.9 billion deficit in July (June 2023: USD 0.0 billion
surplus; July 2022: USD 6.2 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %.
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 15.1 billion
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics deficit in July, compared to the USD 20.4 billion deficit in June.
calculations.

FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising 5.3% in 2023,

which is down by 0.9 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 5.1%
in 2024.

Our panelists see merchandise imports rising 3.7% in 2023, which is down by
0.6 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.5% in 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 87

 Mexico September 2023

Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 18.5 billion in 2023 and a trade deficit
of USD 16.0 billion in 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 88

 Mexico September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 125 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135
GDP per capita (USD) 10,028 10,318 8,767 10,169 11,270 12,878 13,227 13,728 14,191 14,813
GDP (USD bn) 1,257 1,306 1,120 1,312 1,466 1,690 1,750 1,831 1,907 2,005
GDP (MXN bn) 24,177 25,143 24,080 26,609 29,504 30,046 31,988 34,897 37,207 39,578
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 4.0 -4.2 10.5 10.9 1.8 6.5 9.1 6.6 6.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.0 -0.3 -8.7 5.8 3.9 2.7 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.2 -0.9 -10.6 7.0 5.4 3.5 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 0.4 -10.3 7.5 6.1 3.1 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 -1.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.8 -4.7 -17.7 10.7 6.0 5.3 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.0 1.5 -7.3 7.1 7.6 1.4 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.4 -0.7 -13.7 15.6 8.7 3.3 2.7 3.6 3.7 3.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.4 -1.8 -9.4 5.6 3.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.7
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.3 2.2 -8.8 13.1 7.4 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.1 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -1.6 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -3.8 -3.6 -3.2 -2.9 -2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 45.6 45.5 51.7 50.7 48.3 49.7 50.3 50.5 49.8 49.5
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.8 2.8 3.2 7.4 7.8 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.9 3.6 3.4 5.7 7.9 5.6 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.5
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 8.25 7.25 4.25 5.50 10.50 10.82 8.40 6.86 6.75 6.67
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 8.60 7.56 4.48 5.72 10.76 11.08 8.56 7.04 6.56 6.47
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 8.69 6.86 5.47 7.55 9.04 8.55 7.86 7.44 7.25 7.27
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 19.7 18.9 19.9 20.5 19.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 19.6 19.9
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 19.2 19.3 21.5 20.3 20.1 17.8 18.3 19.1 19.5 19.7
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -0.4 2.0 -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -26.0 -5.7 22.5 -8.3 -18.0 -17.3 -16.6 -19.3 -25.7 -26.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -13.6 5.4 34.2 -10.8 -26.9 -18.5 -16.0 -23.6 -25.0 -26.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 451 461 417 495 578 609 639 666 694 722
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 464 455 383 506 605 627 655 690 719 748
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 10.1 2.2 -9.4 18.6 16.7 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.2 4.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.4 -2.0 -15.9 32.0 19.6 3.7 4.5 5.2 4.3 4.0
Remittances (USD bn) 33.7 36.4 40.6 51.6 58.5 62.0 63.6 65.7 67.7 69.9
International Reserves (USD bn) 175 181 196 202 199 204 209 221 220 231
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.5 4.8 6.1 4.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7
External Debt (USD bn) 593 622 629 603 589 665 697 753 738 773
External Debt (% of GDP) 47.2 47.6 56.1 46.0 40.1 39.3 39.8 41.1 38.7 38.6
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.1 4.2 3.8 3.6 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.1
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.3 4.5 4.8 3.1 3.1 2.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 3.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 1.9 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.8 7.6 9.5 6.5 5.5 1.4 -0.2 0.7 1.8 3.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.6
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 7.7 7.3 5.3 4.1 1.3 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.7 7.8 6.8 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.9
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 9.25 10.50 11.25 11.25 11.25 10.97 10.35 9.74 9.05 8.37
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 9.02 10.76 11.43 11.49 11.50 11.22 10.50 9.80 9.10 8.50
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 9.65 9.04 8.81 8.67 8.86 8.62 8.43 8.24 8.11 7.91
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 20.1 19.5 18.1 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.5 18.6
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 20.2 19.7 18.7 17.7 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 0.7 -5.0 1.4 -0.9 0.0 -2.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -6.4 2.6 -20.3 6.2 -4.4 -0.1 -12.1 -0.8 -5.1 -0.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -12.9 -1.2 -4.8 -1.5 -6.3 -2.4 -5.1 -0.7 -8.2 -2.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 149 148 141 151 156 163 152 163 161 167
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 162 149 146 152 162 165 157 164 169 170
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Economic Activity (IGAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.5 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.3 1.5 0.7 3.9 3.7 - -
Unemployment (% of active population) 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.1 -
Consumer Confidence Indicator 42.2 42.8 44.4 44.9 44.6 44.3 44.7 45.4 46.3 46.7
IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold) 51.0 51.4 49.8 51.3 49.6 50.1 49.8 51.0 51.3 52.3
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.58 0.38 0.68 0.56 0.27 -0.02 -0.22 0.10 0.48 0.55
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.8 4.6
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 19.4 19.5 18.8 18.3 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.2 16.7 16.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 7.9 3.0 25.6 -3.0 3.1 -2.9 5.8 1.1 2.9 -
Remittances (ann. var. %) 3.3 12.6 12.9 11.4 10.5 6.2 10.8 8.4 6.6 -

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. The external debt definition was changed in March 2023 to better reflect panelists’ forecasts.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 89

 Mexico September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
Actinver 3.2 1.6
AGPV 2.5 1.8
Allianz 1.8 1.5
American Chamber Mexico 3.3 3.0
Barclays Capital 3.2 2.0
BBVA Bancomer 3.0 2.4
CABI 2.3 1.6
Capital Economics 3.0 1.3
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 3.5 2.1
Citibanamex 2.8 1.4
Credicorp Capital 3.2 1.9
Credit Agricole 1.8 1.5
Credit Suisse 2.3 1.7
DekaBank 3.1 1.7
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
DIW Berlin 2.4 1.9
Econosignal 2.8 2.4
EIU 2.4 2.0
EmergingMarketWatch 2.5 1.4
Euromonitor Int. 2.4 1.7
Fitch Ratings 2.5 1.8
Fitch Solutions 3.2 1.4
FrontierView 2.3 2.0
GBM Securities 2.5 2.7
Goldman Sachs 3.0 1.7
Grupo Financiero Banorte 3.0 1.8
Grupo Financiero BASE 3.5 2.0
HSBC 2.5 1.9
Ifo Institut 2.6 0.9
Infonavit 3.3 2.7
INVEX 2.3 2.1
Itaú Unibanco 3.0 1.3
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution JPMorgan 3.4 1.8
Julius Baer 2.3 1.0
Kiel Institute 2.3 1.4
MAPFRE Economics 1.8 1.5
Monex 3.1 1.5
Moody's Analytics 2.8 2.2
Oxford Economics 2.6 1.0
Pantheon Macroeconomics 3.0 2.0
Prognosis 3.2 2.0
S&P Global Ratings 1.8 1.5
Scotiabank 3.2 1.6
Société Générale 2.2 0.9
Standard Chartered 2.9 1.8
Thorne & Associates 2.8 1.5
Torino Capital 2.2 -
UBS 2.4 1.9
Ve Por Más 3.0 1.4
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 2.9 1.8
OECD 2.6 2.1
Notes and sources
World Bank 2.5 1.9
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Summary
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the Minimum 1.8 0.9
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist Maximum 3.5 3.0
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Median 2.8 1.8
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Consensus 2.7 1.8
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics History
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
30 days ago 2.4 1.7
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 60 days ago 2.2 1.6
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 90 days ago 1.9 1.7
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 90

 Mexico September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
American Chamber Mexico - - 2.0 1.9
Barclays Capital 2.7 2.0 6.0 2.8
BBVA Bancomer 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.0
CABI 1.8 2.0 4.0 3.5
Capital Economics 4.5 0.9 8.0 0.7
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 3.6 2.0 5.5 3.3
Citibanamex 4.5 3.0 6.1 0.8
Credicorp Capital 4.1 2.0 16.0 3.9
Econosignal 3.1 2.1 6.2 3.4
EIU 3.0 1.8 5.2 2.4
Euromonitor Int. 3.7 1.6 - -
Fitch Solutions 4.5 1.5 6.5 1.2
FrontierView 2.4 2.4 - -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
GBM Securities 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.8
Goldman Sachs 2.8 2.2 5.0 2.5
Grupo Financiero Banorte 3.9 - 12.2 -
Grupo Financiero BASE 3.5 3.0 6.5 2.0
HSBC 3.0 2.2 3.0 2.0
INVEX 4.8 1.0 6.0 3.9
JPMorgan - - 5.3 1.5
MAPFRE Economics 1.1 1.2 3.0 -0.2
Moody's Analytics 5.6 4.2 5.8 -1.9
Oxford Economics 3.2 -0.3 6.3 -0.4
Prognosis 3.4 3.0 5.7 3.2
S&P Global Ratings 1.5 1.4 - -
Société Générale 1.9 1.0 1.5 0.8
Torino Capital 0.8 - 1.1 -
UBS 2.5 2.0 3.0 2.5
Public Forecasts
OECD 2.0 2.2 5.4 3.8
8 | Investment | variation in %
Summary
Minimum 0.8 -0.3 1.1 -1.9
Maximum 5.6 4.2 16.0 3.9
Median 3.0 2.0 5.5 2.0
Consensus 3.1 1.9 5.3 1.9
History
30 days ago 2.8 2.0 4.2 1.7
60 days ago 2.4 1.9 3.4 1.7
90 days ago 2.1 2.1 2.9 1.7

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 91

 Mexico September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
American Chamber Mexico - - 3.3 3.5
Barclays Capital - - 3.7 3.7
BBVA Bancomer - - 2.9 3.7
Capital Economics 2.3 1.7 - -
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 2.1 2.0 - -
Citibanamex 1.0 1.1 3.2 3.5
Credicorp Capital - - 2.8 3.0
DIW Berlin - - 3.1 3.4
Econosignal - - 3.1 3.3
EIU 1.3 2.1 3.1 3.7
Euromonitor Int. 2.1 1.0 2.8 2.9
Fitch Ratings - - 3.5 3.5
Fitch Solutions - - 2.8 3.5
FrontierView 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
GBM Securities - - 4.2 4.2
Grupo Financiero Banorte 2.9 - 2.9 3.3
Grupo Financiero BASE 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8
HSBC 1.7 2.1 2.9 3.0
INVEX 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.7
JPMorgan - - 2.9 3.1
Monex - - 3.0 3.2
Moody's Analytics 1.7 2.3 - -
Oxford Economics 2.2 1.3 3.0 3.7
Prognosis - - 2.9 3.3
S&P Global Ratings - - 3.0 3.7
Scotiabank - - 3.3 3.7
Société Générale - - 2.9 3.8
Torino Capital - - 3.7 -
UBS 2.4 2.7 3.7 3.4
Ve Por Más 1.0 - 2.9 3.1
Public Forecasts 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

OECD - - 3.1 3.2

Summary
Minimum 1.0 1.0 2.8 2.7
Maximum 3.0 3.3 4.2 4.2
Median 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.4
Consensus 2.0 2.1 3.1 3.4
History
30 days ago 1.8 2.1 3.2 3.5
60 days ago 1.7 2.1 3.3 3.5
90 days ago 1.6 2.2 3.3 3.6

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 92

 Mexico September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV -3.5 -3.5 - -
American Chamber Mexico - - 52.0 53.8
Barclays Capital -3.5 -3.8 50.2 50.3
CABI -3.0 -3.5 50.0 50.0
Capital Economics -3.5 -3.8 49.0 51.0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex -3.8 -2.8 49.0 50.0
Citibanamex -3.8 -3.7 - -
Credicorp Capital -3.6 -3.4 49.5 49.9
DekaBank -3.5 -3.6 - -
EIU -3.4 -3.5 48.6 49.8
Euromonitor Int. -3.7 -3.6 - -
Fitch Ratings -3.5 -3.2 - -
Fitch Solutions -3.8 -3.5 50.2 50.3
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
GBM Securities -4.0 -4.0 50.5 50.5
Goldman Sachs -4.1 -3.8 47.7 49.3
Grupo Financiero Banorte -4.8 -4.1 49.2 49.7
Grupo Financiero BASE -3.8 -3.9 50.0 49.5
HSBC -3.9 -3.8 49.0 50.5
JPMorgan -4.2 -4.5 - -
MAPFRE Economics -3.6 -3.3 - -
Moody's Analytics -3.9 -3.9 - -
Oxford Economics -3.8 -3.3 48.8 49.9
Prognosis -3.7 -3.0 50.0 -
Société Générale -3.7 -3.0 - -
Torino Capital -3.5 - 50.7 -
UBS -4.3 -3.8 49.9 50.7
Summary
Minimum -4.8 -4.5 47.7 49.3
Maximum -3.0 -2.8 52.0 53.8
Median -3.7 -3.6 49.9 50.0
16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Consensus -3.8 -3.6 49.7 50.3
History
30 days ago -3.7 -3.5 50.0 50.5
60 days ago -3.7 -3.5 49.8 50.3
90 days ago -3.8 -3.5 50.0 50.6

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 93

 Mexico September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2011-2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Actinver 4.5 3.8 5.5 4.1
AGPV - - 5.0 4.0
Allianz - - 6.0 5.5
American Chamber Mexico 4.5 4.0 - -
Barclays Capital 5.3 3.5 5.7 4.4
BBVA Bancomer 4.6 3.5 5.6 3.9
CABI 4.7 4.3 - -
Capital Economics 4.3 4.0 5.5 4.3
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 4.7 4.1 5.6 4.6
Citibanamex 4.7 4.1 5.6 4.3
Credicorp Capital 4.4 4.0 5.5 4.1
Credit Agricole - - 5.8 3.8
Credit Suisse - - 5.9 4.0
19 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
DekaBank - - 5.0 3.2
DIW Berlin - - 5.6 3.8
Econosignal 4.5 4.0 5.6 4.1
EIU 3.3 3.7 5.3 3.3
EmergingMarketWatch 4.6 4.0 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 5.6 4.1
Fitch Ratings - - 5.9 4.5
Fitch Solutions 4.8 4.5 5.6 4.8
FrontierView - - 5.7 3.9
GBM Securities 5.0 4.0 - -
Goldman Sachs 4.7 4.0 5.5 4.3
Grupo Financiero Banorte 4.5 4.1 5.6 3.9
Grupo Financiero BASE 4.6 3.5 5.6 4.2
HSBC 4.4 3.9 5.5 4.1
Ifo Institut - - 5.5 4.3
Infonavit 4.7 3.7 - -
INVEX 4.8 4.5 5.6 4.6
20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
Itaú Unibanco 4.5 4.2 - -
JPMorgan 4.3 4.0 5.4 3.9
Julius Baer - - 4.9 3.9
Kiel Institute 3.4 3.7 5.2 3.4
MAPFRE Economics 4.5 3.7 5.6 4.0
Monex 4.7 3.6 5.6 5.5
Moody's Analytics 4.7 3.6 5.7 4.2
Oxford Economics 4.6 3.6 5.5 4.3
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 5.4 3.8
Prognosis 4.6 4.0 6.2 4.3
S&P Global Ratings 4.5 3.8 5.7 4.2
Scotiabank 4.7 4.1 5.6 4.4
Société Générale - - 5.5 4.1
Standard Chartered - - 5.5 3.6
Thorne & Associates 4.7 4.0 5.6 4.3
Torino Capital 4.1 - 5.5 -
UBS 4.3 3.4 5.5 3.7
21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Ve Por Más 4.8 4.0 5.6 4.4
Public Forecasts
OECD - - 5.9 3.7
Summary
Minimum 3.3 3.4 4.9 3.2
Maximum 5.3 4.5 6.2 5.5
Median 4.6 4.0 5.6 4.1
Consensus 4.5 3.9 5.6 4.1
History
30 days ago 4.6 3.9 5.6 4.1
60 days ago 4.7 3.9 5.7 4.2
90 days ago 5.0 3.9 5.9 4.2

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 94

 Mexico September 2023

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2011-2027 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
Actinver 11.00 8.75
AGPV 11.00 8.00
American Chamber Mexico 11.25 10.00
Barclays Capital 11.25 7.50
BBVA Bancomer 10.75 8.00
CABI 8.00 6.80
Capital Economics 11.00 9.00
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 11.25 8.25
Citibanamex 11.00 7.50
Credicorp Capital 11.25 8.75
Credit Agricole 11.00 8.75
DekaBank 11.25 6.50
Econosignal 11.00 9.00
EIU 11.00 9.00
Fitch Solutions 11.00 8.00
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst
GBM Securities 10.75 8.75
Goldman Sachs 10.75 8.75
Grupo Financiero Banorte 11.25 8.25
Grupo Financiero BASE 11.25 9.75
HSBC 10.75 8.50
Infonavit 11.25 9.50
INVEX 11.25 8.50
Itaú Unibanco 10.75 8.00
JPMorgan 11.25 10.00
MAPFRE Economics 10.00 -
Monex 10.75 10.75
Oxford Economics 10.50 6.50
Pantheon Macroeconomics 10.25 6.25
Prognosis 11.25 8.75
S&P Global Ratings 11.25 8.50
Scotiabank 11.00 8.25
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution Société Générale 11.25 -
Thorne & Associates 11.00 8.50
Torino Capital 9.00 -
UBS 10.25 7.00
Ve Por Más 10.75 8.75
Summary
Minimum 8.00 6.25
Maximum 11.25 10.75
Median 11.00 8.50
Consensus 10.82 8.40
History
30 days ago 10.76 8.27
60 days ago 10.76 8.29
90 days ago 10.82 8.25

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (Banxico,
Banco de México) and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto
Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INEGI.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop). Source: Banxico.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 95

 Mexico September 2023

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Exchange Rate | MXN per USD

Individual Forecasts 2023 2024

Actinver 17.8 19.0
AGPV 18.0 18.0
American Chamber Mexico 17.1 18.0
Barclays Capital 19.0 20.0
BBVA Bancomer 18.0 18.6
CABI 18.4 18.7
Capital Economics 20.0 21.0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 17.7 18.3
Citibanamex 17.5 18.7
Credicorp Capital 17.5 18.1
Credit Agricole 19.5 19.3
DekaBank 17.3 18.4
Econosignal 17.9 19.0
EIU 18.2 19.2
Fitch Ratings 18.3 19.0
29 | MXN per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst 30 | MXN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst
Fitch Solutions 18.5 17.5
GBM Securities 18.0 19.0
Grupo Financiero Banorte 17.9 19.2
Grupo Financiero BASE 17.1 16.4
HSBC 17.0 -
Infonavit 17.6 18.1
INVEX 17.5 18.2
Itaú Unibanco 18.0 19.0
JPMorgan 17.4 18.3
Julius Baer 16.9 17.5
MAPFRE Economics 18.6 20.1
Monex 17.8 19.0
Moody's Analytics 17.1 17.2
Oxford Economics 17.4 19.5
Prognosis 17.5 18.5
S&P Global Ratings 18.5 19.0
31 | MXN per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution Scotiabank 17.9 18.9
Société Générale 17.4 -
Standard Chartered 17.4 18.2
Torino Capital 20.5 -
UBS 19.0 20.0
Ve Por Más 18.4 19.6
Summary
Minimum 16.9 16.4
Maximum 20.5 21.0
Median 17.9 18.8
Consensus 18.0 18.7
History
30 days ago 18.2 19.0
60 days ago 18.4 19.2
90 days ago 18.9 19.7

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 96

 Mexico September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV - - -18.0 -18.0
American Chamber Mexico 1.0 1.1 - -
Barclays Capital -1.1 -1.0 -19.0 -8.2
BBVA Bancomer -1.3 -1.3 - -
CABI - - -8.4 21.8
Capital Economics -1.5 -1.0 - -
Citibanamex -1.2 -1.0 -21.7 -25.7
Credicorp Capital -0.7 -0.5 -18.4 -18.6
Credit Agricole -1.2 -1.0 - -
DekaBank -1.9 -2.1 - -
EIU -1.8 -1.6 -37.0 -25.2
Euromonitor Int. -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -6.0
Fitch Ratings -0.4 -0.4 -23.2 -24.6
Fitch Solutions -1.5 -1.5 -23.4 -25.2 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

GBM Securities -1.1 -1.2 - -

Goldman Sachs -1.0 -1.1 -24.7 -36.9
Grupo Financiero Banorte -1.7 -1.9 - -
Grupo Financiero BASE -1.2 -1.2 -15.7 -17.2
HSBC -1.2 -0.7 -12.8 -8.9
Infonavit -0.9 -0.3 - -
INVEX -1.4 -1.1 -13.4 -1.7
JPMorgan -1.5 -1.6 -27.2 -30.4
MAPFRE Economics -1.0 -1.0 - -
Moody's Analytics -1.2 -1.5 - -
Oxford Economics -1.0 -0.9 -22.8 -32.3
Prognosis -1.0 -0.7 -21.6 -23.8
Société Générale -1.0 -0.6 - -
Standard Chartered -0.7 -0.6 - -
Torino Capital -0.2 - - -
UBS -0.3 -0.6 -12.7 -11.5
34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Public Forecasts
OECD -0.7 -0.6 - -
Summary
Minimum -1.9 -2.1 -37.0 -36.9
Maximum 1.0 1.1 -0.9 21.8
Median -1.1 -1.0 -19.0 -18.6
Consensus -1.0 -0.9 -18.5 -16.0
History
30 days ago -1.0 -1.0 -16.9 -14.4
60 days ago -1.0 -1.0 -18.5 -16.7
90 days ago -0.9 -0.9 -17.3 -16.1

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 97

 Mexico September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV 610 640 628 658
Barclays Capital 607 667 626 675
CABI 607 650 615 628
Citibanamex 596 623 618 648
Credicorp Capital 588 600 606 619
EIU 607 628 644 654
Euromonitor Int. 656 716 657 722
Fitch Ratings 624 662 648 687
Fitch Solutions 591 588 614 613
Goldman Sachs 601 636 618 653
Grupo Financiero BASE 612 645 628 662
HSBC 625 659 637 668
INVEX 581 607 594 608
JPMorgan 603 617 630 648 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 615 636 638 668
Prognosis 604 633 626 657
UBS 617 664 630 676
Summary
Minimum 581 588 594 608
Maximum 656 716 657 722
Median 607 636 628 657
Consensus 609 639 627 655
History
30 days ago 613 642 630 656
60 days ago 613 640 631 657
90 days ago 611 638 628 654

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 98

 Mexico September 2023

External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

International Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV 205 210 - -
American Chamber Mexico 203 208 - -
Barclays Capital 196 197 616 647
Citibanamex 203 206 - -
Credicorp Capital 205 213 - -
EIU 207 217 614 619
Euromonitor Int. 213 215 - -
Fitch Ratings 209 217 - -
Fitch Solutions 204 209 717 780
GBM Securities 202 205 - -
Goldman Sachs 203 203 - -
INVEX 200 200 - -
JPMorgan 198 199 - -
Moody's Analytics 214 225 757 837 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 209 219 600 619
Prognosis 203 204 - -
Torino Capital 202 - - -
UBS 205 210 684 680
Summary
Minimum 196 197 600 619
Maximum 214 225 757 837
Median 204 209 650 663
Consensus 204 209 665 697
History
30 days ago 204 209 665 692
60 days ago 205 209 669 696
90 days ago 204 209 667 694

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | USD bn

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 99

 Mexico September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Mexico in the Region

Official name: United Mexican States Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Mexico City (21.8m)
Other cities: Guadalajara (5.2m)
Monterrey (4.8m)
Area (km2): 1,964,375
Population (million, 2019 est.): 129
Population density (per km2, 2019): 65.7
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.0
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.7
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 4.6
Language: Spanish and Indigenous
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-6 to GMT-8

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 17.2
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 95.2
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 65.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 14.5

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 6,673
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 7,931
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 305
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 261
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,260
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,020
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 493

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 1,714
Railways (km): 20,825
Roadways (km): 398,148 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 2,900 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas

Political Data
President: A. M. López Obrador
Last elections: 1 July 2018
Next elections: 2024 Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Victoria Rodríguez Ceja

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Commitment to sound fiscal • Drug-related violence

policy • Uncertain business environment
Exports Imports
• Large domestic market
• Tariff-free access to U.S. market

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 100

 Peru September 2023

Peru
Outlook moderates
Peru

• GDP contracted in year-on-year terms in Q2 at a slightly sharper pace

than in Q1. Destocking weighed on private investment, as companies
lightened their warehouses following two quarters of stock accumulation.
Additionally, adverse weather conditions and social unrest took a toll
on activity. Available data suggests that GDP should return to growth
in the current quarter. In July, the unemployment rate fell, wage growth
outpaced inflation—which declined in July and August—and business
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages sentiment improved, boding well for activity. Meanwhile, in late August,
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27 mining company Minsur announced an investment of at least USD 2
Population (million): 33.5 34.5 35.6 billion in the country over five years to scale up copper and tin production.
GDP (USD bn): 221 266 316
GDP per capita (USD): 6,609 7,699 8,888
In politics, in early September, President Boluarte reshuffled the cabinet
GDP growth (%): 1.5 2.2 3.0 for the second time in six months amid continued political instability.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.3 -2.2 -1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP): 32.4 33.7 34.5
Inflation (%): 8.1 4.5 2.9 • The pace of GDP expansion will decelerate notably this year from 2022.
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.6 -2.4 -1.3 Sticky inflation and tighter financing conditions will constrain domestic
External Debt (% of GDP): 41.2 40.6 -
activity. Additionally, the external sector will suffer from the effects
Massimo Bassetti of global headwinds. El Niño-associated weather events and the re-
Senior Economist emergence of social unrest amid political uncertainty pose downside
risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2023,
which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts expanding 2.6% in 2024.

• Inflation came in at 5.6% in August, down from July’s 5.9%. Inflation will
continue its downtrend ahead this year, curbed by previous monetary
policy hikes and improved supply conditions. Upside risks stem from an
expansionary fiscal stance and the threat posed to agricultural output by
El Niño. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on
average in 2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 3.4% on average in 2024.

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 • At its 10 August meeting, the Central Bank of Peru kept its key policy
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.
interest rate at 7.75%—where it has been since January. The decision
was driven by declining headline inflation, core inflation and inflation
expectations. Our panel expects the Bank to cut rates later this year
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
as inflation gradually moderates. FocusEconomics panelists see the
monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 6.74% and ending 2024 at 4.65%.

• The sol traded at PEN 3.71 per USD on 7 September, depreciating 0.5%
month on month. The currency should lose some ground from current
levels by the end of this year amid protracted domestic political and social
instability and a narrowing interest rate differential with the U.S. Volatile
copper prices are a key factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see
the sol ending 2023 at PEN 3.73 per USD and ending 2024 at PEN 3.74
per USD.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 101

 Peru September 2023

REAL SECTOR | Economy records sharpest contraction since Q4 2020

in Q2
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP contracted at a sharper pace of 0.5% year on year in the second quarter,
below the 0.4% contraction tallied in the first quarter. Q2’s reading marked the
worst reading since Q4 2020. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter
basis, GDP declined at a more moderate pace of 0.2% in Q2, compared to the
previous period’s 0.6% fall.

Household spending increased 0.4% year on year in the second quarter,

which was above the first quarter’s 0.2% expansion. Government spending
rebounded, growing 2.7% in Q2 (Q1: -5.9% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment
contracted at a more moderate rate of 6.3% in Q2, from the 10.7% contraction
recorded in the prior quarter.

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-

Exports of goods and services growth picked up to 7.7% in Q2 (Q1: +2.4%
year variation %. yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services declined at a milder rate of
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
3.0% in Q2 (Q1: -3.2% yoy).

Commenting on the outlook, Julio Ruiz, analyst at Itaú Unibanco, stated:

“Our 2023 GDP growth forecast stands at a below potential growth rate of
+0.8%. The El Niño phenomenon will likely curb activity for the rest of the year
in the context of a tight monetary policy stance.”

FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2023, which is down

by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.6% in 2024.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity decreases at a softer pace in June

Economic Activity | annual variation in % Economic activity fell 0.6% compared to the same month a year earlier in
June, which was a smaller contraction than May’s 1.3% decrease. Looking
at the details, the commerce and energy sectors slowed in June, while the
agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors contracted at softer
paces.

On a monthly basis, economic activity rose 1.3% in June (May: -1.6% mom),
the best result since May 2021. Meanwhile, annual average economic activity
growth fell to 0.7% in June.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls in August

Inflation came in at 5.6% in August, which was down from July’s 5.9% and
Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity in %. marked the lowest reading since September 2021. That said, the print
Source: Peru National Statistics Institute (INEI).
remained above the Central Bank’s 1.0-3.0% target range for the 26th
consecutive month.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Annual average inflation dipped to 7.7% in August from 8.0% in July. Lastly,
consumer prices increased 0.38% over the previous month in August, following
the 0.39% increase logged in July.

FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on average in

2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
3.4% on average in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank keeps rates unchanged in August

At its 10 August meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRA) kept its key policy
interest rate unchanged at 7.75%, where it has been since January.

The decision not to hike further was driven by declining headline inflation,
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: INEI. core inflation and market inflation expectations, and by the Bank’s view that
price pressures would continue to trend down going forward. That said, with

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 102

 Peru September 2023

Monetary Policy Rate | in % inflation still well above the Bank’s target range of 1.0–3.0%, it was premature
to begin monetary easing.

The Bank did not give explicit forward guidance in its press release, though
most of our panelists see rate cuts ensuing by year-end. The discrepancy
among analysts is wide, with a 175 basis point spread among end-2023
forecasts.

Goldman Sachs analysts, who are among the more dovish of our panelists,
said:

“In an important innovation, the MPC dropped the hawkish statement from
previous communiques that ‘[the decision to hold] does not necessarily imply
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP). the end of the [tightening] cycle,’ which we interpret as an implicit signal that
the MPC is setting the stage to start the normalization of the policy stance,
potentially as early as September (our baseline scenario).”

FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 6.74%
and ending 2024 at 4.65%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports drop in June

Merchandise Trade Merchandise exports decreased 6.0% annually in June, contrasting May’s
1.3% rise. Meanwhile, merchandise imports plummeted 18.3% in annual
terms in June (May: -6.7% yoy).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous

month, recording a USD 1.4 billion surplus in June (May 2023: USD 0.9 billion
surplus; June 2022: USD 1.0 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 12.8 billion
surplus in June, compared to the USD 12.4 billion surplus in May.

FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising 1.1% in 2023,

which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 3.1%
in 2024.
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 4.3% in 2023, which is down by
1.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.4% in 2024.

Our panelists see a trade surplus of USD 13.4 billion in 2023 and a trade
surplus of USD 13.2 billion in 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 103

 Peru September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 32.2 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.2 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.6 35.9
GDP per capita (USD) 7,054 7,008 6,152 6,669 7,157 7,768 8,172 8,473 8,865 9,325
GDP (USD bn) 227 232 206 226 245 268 285 298 315 335
GDP (PEN bn) 746 776 720 876 938 994 1,052 1,114 1,179 1,251
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.0 4.0 -7.1 21.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 2.2 -11.0 13.3 2.7 1.3 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.1 2.2 -9.8 14.5 2.3 0.1 2.6 2.6 3.1 2.9
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 3.1 -7.3 12.1 2.5 1.6 2.3 2.4 - -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.8 3.2 -9.9 12.4 3.6 1.6 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.4 2.2 7.5 10.9 -3.4 0.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.4 3.3 -16.2 34.6 1.0 -4.2 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.9
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.1 1.1 -19.7 13.2 6.1 2.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 2.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.4 1.0 -15.8 18.0 4.4 -0.8 2.8 3.5 3.5 1.8
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 5.9 -1.7 -12.6 18.7 0.9 -1.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.4
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.5 2.5 -13.3 17.2 3.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.7 6.6 12.8 11.3 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -1.6 -8.9 -2.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8 -1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 25.6 26.6 34.6 35.9 33.8 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.7 35.0
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.9 9.1 37.7 -4.0 -32.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.2 1.9 2.0 6.4 8.5 4.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.3 2.1 1.8 4.0 7.9 6.5 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 2.6 2.2 1.8 3.8 6.5 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.2 -0.1 1.6 13.6 7.0 - - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.25 0.25 2.50 7.50 6.74 4.65 4.02 3.92 3.96
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.38 3.31 3.62 3.99 3.81 3.73 3.74 3.74 3.75 3.72
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.29 3.34 3.50 3.88 3.84 3.71 3.69 3.74 3.74 3.73
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.6 1.1 -2.2 -4.1 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -1.3 2.2 -5.1 -9.9 -4.7 -4.0 -3.9 -3.5 -5.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 7.2 6.9 8.1 15.0 10.3 13.4 13.2 13.6 14.3 13.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 49.1 48.0 42.8 63.0 66.2 66.9 69.0 73.1 76.5 79.8
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 41.9 41.1 34.7 48.0 55.9 53.5 55.9 59.5 62.2 66.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.0 -2.2 -10.7 47.0 5.2 1.1 3.1 5.9 4.7 4.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 8.1 -1.8 -15.5 38.2 16.5 -4.3 4.4 6.5 4.7 6.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.8 6.2 -0.4 5.8 11.7 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 60.3 68.4 74.9 78.5 72.2 74.7 76.0 80.1 86.8 95.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 17.3 20.0 25.9 19.6 15.5 16.7 16.3 16.2 16.7 17.3
External Debt (USD bn) 78.7 80.9 89.7 102.0 102.3 108.5 112.4 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 34.7 34.8 43.5 45.2 41.8 40.5 39.5 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.0 1.7 -0.4 -0.5 1.6 2.9 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.7 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.6 1.9 -1.8 -3.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 3.0 1.7 1.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 2.3 0.2 0.4 2.2 3.7 2.9 1.9 2.3 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -5.9 -11.2 -5.9 2.7 2.5 3.4 0.7 0.9 2.0 2.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.6 1.6 -10.7 -6.3 -4.4 1.1 5.5 2.3 2.0 1.9
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 1.1 -2.4 -0.4 -11.7 -3.6 -2.2 -3.8 7.6 2.8 6.3
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.7 2.9 2.2 3.1 - - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.3 7.3 7.6 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.5 6.9 6.8 6.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.5 8.5 8.4 6.5 5.1 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 8.6 8.4 8.6 7.4 5.4 4.5 3.7 2.9 2.9 2.8
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 6.75 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.45 6.61 5.95 5.27 4.84 4.53
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.98 3.81 3.76 3.62 3.66 3.69 3.69 3.68 3.69 3.72
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.89 3.90 3.82 3.70 3.64 3.68 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.71
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -1.9 -2.0 0.7 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 -1.0 -1.1 -0.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.9 -1.2 -1.2 0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.6 3.0 4.2 4.2 2.9 3.5 3.7 2.8 3.0 3.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 16.5 16.6 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.7 16.7 16.3 17.5 18.4
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 14.9 13.6 11.9 12.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 13.5 14.5 14.6
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 2.1 1.0 -0.9 -0.6 0.3 0.4 -1.3 -0.6 - -
Unemployment (% of active population) 7.6 7.1 8.0 7.3 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.3 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.52 0.79 0.23 0.29 1.25 0.56 0.32 -0.15 0.39 0.38
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.9 6.5 5.9 5.6
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.85 3.81 3.85 3.81 3.76 3.71 3.68 3.62 3.60 3.70
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -18.7 -4.9 -10.8 -12.4 9.2 4.1 1.3 -6.0 - -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 104

 Peru September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 20-Q4 24 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
AGPV 1.5 3.0
Allianz 1.9 2.5
BancTrust & Co. 1.5 2.7
Barclays Capital 0.5 1.8
BBVA Banco Continental 1.6 2.6
BCP/Credicorp Capital 1.3 2.2
CABI 1.8 2.5
Capital Economics 1.5 2.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.2 3.2
Corficolombiana 1.7 2.5
DekaBank 1.3 2.4
EIU 1.3 2.4
EmergingMarketWatch 1.4 2.3
Euromonitor Int. 1.6 2.8
Fitch Ratings 1.8 1.8
3 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Solutions 1.8 2.3
FrontierView 1.5 2.3
Goldman Sachs 0.2 2.3
HSBC 1.7 2.5
IEDEP - CCL 1.0 2.6
IPE 0.8 2.3
Itaú Unibanco 0.8 3.8
JPMorgan 0.7 3.3
Julius Baer 1.3 3.2
Kiel Institute 0.9 2.2
Macroconsult 0.6 2.7
Moody's Analytics 1.2 3.2
Oxford Economics 1.1 3.2
Pantheon Macroeconomics 1.0 3.2
Pezco Economics 1.7 2.1
Rabobank 1.6 2.8
Rimac Seguros 1.2 2.2
5 | GDP 2023 | Panelist Distribution S&P Global Ratings 1.8 2.6
Scope Ratings -0.2 2.6
Scotiabank 0.5 2.3
Standard Chartered 1.3 2.1
Thorne & Associates 0.8 2.4
Torino Capital 1.6 -
UBS 1.5 2.5
Public Forecasts
CAF 1.2 2.0
CEPAL 1.3 2.5
OECD 1.7 2.9
World Bank 2.2 2.6
Summary
Minimum -0.2 1.8
Maximum 2.2 3.8
Median 1.3 2.5
Consensus 1.3 2.6
History
30 days ago 1.5 2.6
60 days ago 1.8 2.6
90 days ago 1.9 2.7

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

General:
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 105

 Peru September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. 2.1 3.2 -5.1 3.2
Barclays Capital 0.8 1.8 -9.6 -2.8
BBVA Banco Continental 1.9 2.7 -2.5 2.4
BCP/Credicorp Capital 1.6 2.2 -4.6 1.2
CABI - - 0.0 1.0
Capital Economics 1.1 2.3 -6.5 1.6
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.1 2.7 -0.7 2.6
EIU 1.8 2.5 -3.6 1.4
Euromonitor Int. 2.8 1.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 1.5 2.3 0.4 1.1
FrontierView 1.6 2.2 - -
Goldman Sachs 0.9 3.5 -3.5 4.2
HSBC 0.9 1.6 - -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
IEDEP - CCL 1.5 2.9 -3.9 2.0
IPE 1.3 2.4 -5.8 0.7
Macroconsult 1.7 2.4 -7.7 0.2
Moody's Analytics 3.2 2.9 -6.0 8.6
Oxford Economics 0.6 2.3 -5.3 0.3
Pezco Economics 1.9 2.4 -1.2 2.2
Rabobank 1.6 2.4 -5.5 1.9
Rimac Seguros 2.0 2.5 -3.8 0.9
S&P Global Ratings 0.4 1.9 - -
Scotiabank 1.0 2.1 -3.6 2.3
Thorne & Associates 1.5 2.5 -4.5 2.9
Torino Capital 3.3 - -5.1 -
UBS 1.3 2.5 -2.8 2.4
Public Forecasts
CAF 0.7 1.7 -3.8 1.8
OECD 1.3 2.7 -4.9 2.0
Summary 8 | Investment | variation in %
Minimum 0.4 1.6 -9.6 -2.8
Maximum 3.3 3.5 0.4 8.6
Median 1.5 2.4 -4.2 1.9
Consensus 1.6 2.4 -4.2 1.9
History
30 days ago 1.6 2.4 -4.2 1.6
60 days ago 1.7 2.4 -3.7 1.6
90 days ago 1.8 2.5 -3.4 1.6

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 106

 Peru September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. -5.9 4.4 7.5 7.3
BBVA Banco Continental 0.5 2.3 - -
BCP/Credicorp Capital - - 7.5 7.2
Capital Economics - - 7.4 6.8
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 6.9 6.7
EIU 0.5 1.5 6.7 6.3
Euromonitor Int. - - 7.6 7.4
FrontierView - - 7.5 7.0
HSBC - - 7.6 7.6
IEDEP - CCL -1.4 2.3 7.4 7.2
Oxford Economics 2.7 3.0 7.3 7.0
Rabobank 0.9 2.0 7.1 6.9
Rimac Seguros 1.0 1.2 - -
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Scope Ratings - - 6.9 7.2
Scotiabank -4.6 3.2 7.0 6.8
Thorne & Associates -3.3 2.7 - -
UBS 0.5 2.0 7.5 7.0
Public Forecasts
CAF -2.0 2.2 8.2 8.0
Summary
Minimum -5.9 1.2 6.7 6.3
Maximum 2.7 4.4 8.2 8.0
Median 0.5 2.3 7.4 7.0
Consensus -1.0 2.4 7.3 7.1
History
30 days ago 0.0 2.1 7.3 7.1
60 days ago 0.3 1.8 7.5 7.2
90 days ago 1.0 1.9 7.5 7.2

12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e
Informática del Perú) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.

11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: BCRP.
13 Unemployment, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 107

 Peru September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt

% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. -2.4 -2.0 32.3 32.1
Barclays Capital -3.0 -3.0 33.6 35.0
BBVA Banco Continental -2.4 -2.2 33.7 34.3
BCP/Credicorp Capital -2.4 -2.0 33.6 33.4
CABI -2.3 -2.3 35.0 34.0
Capital Economics -2.3 -2.3 33.5 33.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.9 -1.6 32.7 32.6
DekaBank -2.0 -2.0 - -
EIU -2.0 -2.0 34.9 35.0
Euromonitor Int. -2.3 -2.2 - -
Fitch Ratings -2.4 -2.0 33.4 33.2
Fitch Solutions -2.4 -2.2 32.1 31.2
Goldman Sachs -2.4 -3.5 - -
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
HSBC -2.3 -2.0 - -
IEDEP - CCL -2.2 -2.4 35.1 35.9
IPE -2.7 -2.4 - -
JPMorgan -2.5 -2.5 - -
Macroconsult -3.0 -3.2 35.1 35.3
Moody's Analytics -4.0 -3.4 31.2 31.2
Oxford Economics -2.3 -2.0 32.8 32.9
Pezco Economics -2.0 -1.9 33.5 35.3
Rabobank -2.1 -2.0 33.6 33.8
Rimac Seguros -2.0 -1.6 - -
Scope Ratings -3.5 -3.5 33.9 35.7
Scotiabank -2.5 -2.3 - -
Thorne & Associates -3.0 -2.5 34.0 33.9
Torino Capital -1.4 - 33.0 -
UBS -2.4 -2.2 34.6 34.3
Public Forecasts
CAF -2.4 -2.2 - - 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Summary
Minimum -4.0 -3.5 31.2 31.2
Maximum -1.4 -1.6 35.1 35.9
Median -2.4 -2.2 33.6 33.9
Consensus -2.4 -2.3 33.6 33.8
History
30 days ago -2.3 -2.3 33.4 33.6
60 days ago -2.2 -2.1 33.4 33.4
90 days ago -2.1 -2.1 33.5 33.5

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance, change in 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 108

 Peru September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices

variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Allianz - - 6.5 4.2
BancTrust & Co. 3.7 2.5 6.4 2.5
Barclays Capital 4.6 3.0 6.6 3.7
BBVA Banco Continental 3.8 2.5 6.4 3.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital 4.8 3.0 6.9 3.7
CABI 5.0 4.0 - -
Capital Economics 4.0 4.0 6.5 4.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 2.2 6.2 2.3
Corficolombiana 4.4 3.0 6.6 -
DekaBank - - 6.5 3.6
EIU 4.2 3.1 6.5 3.6
EmergingMarketWatch 4.2 3.1 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 6.5 3.3
19 | Inflation | Q4 20 - Q4 24 | in %
Fitch Ratings - - 6.7 4.3
Fitch Solutions 4.3 3.1 6.6 3.4
FrontierView - - 6.6 3.9
Goldman Sachs 4.6 2.5 6.6 3.2
HSBC 4.0 3.0 - -
IEDEP - CCL 3.9 2.9 6.5 3.1
IPE 4.0 2.9 6.5 3.2
Itaú Unibanco 3.8 2.8 - -
JPMorgan 4.2 3.5 5.9 2.8
Julius Baer 6.1 2.8 - -
Kiel Institute 4.5 3.1 6.6 3.7
Macroconsult 4.2 2.5 6.5 2.9
Moody's Analytics 4.5 2.0 6.5 2.4
Oxford Economics 4.0 2.9 6.1 3.0
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 6.2 2.6
Pezco Economics 6.4 4.9 7.5 5.7
Rabobank 4.0 3.1 6.5 3.1 20 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcst
Rimac Seguros 4.5 3.5 - -
S&P Global Ratings 4.3 2.5 6.6 2.9
Scope Ratings - - 6.6 3.6
Scotiabank 5.0 3.5 6.7 4.4
Standard Chartered - - 6.5 2.7
Thorne & Associates 4.1 2.8 6.5 3.0
Torino Capital 4.5 - 6.6 -
UBS 4.5 2.7 6.7 3.3
Public Forecasts
CAF 4.3 2.9 6.5 3.1
OECD - - 6.9 3.4
Summary
Minimum 3.2 2.0 5.9 2.3
Maximum 6.4 4.9 7.5 5.7
Median 4.3 3.0 6.5 3.3
Consensus 4.4 3.0 6.5 3.4
History 21 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
30 days ago 4.3 3.0 6.6 3.4
60 days ago 4.3 3.0 6.5 3.4
90 days ago 4.4 3.0 6.5 3.4

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 109

 Peru September 2023

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2011 - 2027 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
AGPV 6.50 5.00
BancTrust & Co. 6.25 4.00
Barclays Capital 7.75 6.50
BBVA Banco Continental 6.75 4.00
BCP/Credicorp Capital 6.75 4.50
Capital Economics 6.75 4.75
Citigroup Global Mkts 6.50 4.50
Corficolombiana 6.25 -
EIU 7.00 5.50
Fitch Solutions 6.75 4.50
Goldman Sachs 6.50 5.00
HSBC 7.00 4.00
IEDEP - CCL 6.00 3.50
IPE 6.00 4.00
Itaú Unibanco 6.75 4.00
24 | Int. Rate 2023 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst JPMorgan 6.25 -
Macroconsult 6.00 4.00
Oxford Economics 7.00 4.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 6.50 4.00
Rabobank 6.75 4.50
Rimac Seguros 7.00 5.50
S&P Global Ratings 7.75 5.00
Scope Ratings 7.75 6.25
Scotiabank 7.00 5.00
Thorne & Associates 7.00 5.00
UBS 6.75 4.75
Public Forecasts
CAF 6.75 4.50
Summary
Minimum 6.00 3.50
Maximum 7.75 6.50
Median 6.75 4.50
26 | Interest Rate 2023 | Panelist Distribution Consensus 6.74 4.65
History
30 days ago 6.73 4.77
60 days ago 6.70 4.76
90 days ago 6.68 4.72

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data
are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

22 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 110

 Peru September 2023

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024
AGPV 3.80 3.80
BancTrust & Co. 3.70 3.80
Barclays Capital 3.65 3.75
BBVA Banco Continental 3.77 3.88
BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.75 3.70
Capital Economics 4.00 3.70
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.67 3.65
EIU 3.74 3.65
Fitch Ratings 3.90 3.90
Fitch Solutions 3.80 3.65
HSBC 3.50 -
IEDEP - CCL 3.82 3.91
IPE 3.70 3.74
Itaú Unibanco 3.70 3.80
JPMorgan 3.65 -
29 | PEN per USD 2023 | evol. of fcst 30 | PEN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst Macroconsult 3.70 3.60
Moody's Analytics 3.68 3.68
Oxford Economics 3.61 3.59
Pezco Economics 3.39 3.64
Rabobank 3.70 3.80
Rimac Seguros 3.80 3.80
S&P Global Ratings 3.75 3.85
Scotiabank 3.78 3.75
Standard Chartered 3.55 3.45
Thorne & Associates 3.71 3.75
Torino Capital 4.10 -
UBS 3.75 3.75
Public Forecasts
CAF 3.75 3.80
Summary
Minimum 3.39 3.45
Maximum 4.10 3.91
31 | PEN per USD 2023 | Panelist Distribution Median 3.73 3.75
Consensus 3.73 3.74
History
30 days ago 3.74 3.74
60 days ago 3.77 3.76
90 days ago 3.81 3.78

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from Macrobond Financial AB. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2023 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 111

 Peru September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. -1.5 -1.6 15.5 14.8
Barclays Capital -1.2 -1.4 13.6 -
BBVA Banco Continental -2.4 -1.7 9.4 10.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital -2.0 -1.5 13.5 14.4
CABI - - 9.6 11.2
Capital Economics 0.3 -0.8 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.4 -1.5 6.1 6.8
DekaBank -1.3 -1.2 - -
EIU -1.3 -1.2 15.0 16.3
Euromonitor Int. -0.4 -0.9 19.3 13.5
Fitch Ratings -3.1 -3.1 11.3 11.0
Fitch Solutions -2.1 -2.3 13.4 13.0
Goldman Sachs -0.5 -0.4 19.0 19.5
33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
HSBC -2.3 -0.6 12.3 17.0
IEDEP - CCL -2.3 -1.7 17.9 12.8
JPMorgan -2.9 -2.0 - -
Macroconsult -2.4 -1.0 15.2 14.5
Moody's Analytics -0.3 0.4 - -
Oxford Economics -2.0 -1.6 12.9 11.5
Pezco Economics -2.8 -1.9 10.4 10.8
Rabobank -2.0 -1.5 12.1 11.9
Rimac Seguros -2.0 -1.3 - -
Scotiabank -1.5 -1.7 15.0 14.7
Standard Chartered -2.3 -2.4 - -
Thorne & Associates -1.8 -1.4 12.4 12.8
Torino Capital -1.4 - 16.3 -
UBS -2.0 -1.5 12.4 12.3
Public Forecasts
CAF -1.9 -1.4 14.3 15.7
OECD -1.1 -1.1 - - 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Summary
Minimum -3.1 -3.1 6.1 6.8
Maximum 0.3 0.4 19.3 18.4
Median -2.0 -1.5 13.4 12.9
Consensus -1.7 -1.4 13.4 13.2
History
30 days ago -2.0 -1.5 12.7 13.0
60 days ago -2.2 -1.6 12.2 12.4
90 days ago -2.4 -1.7 11.3 12.0

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance as % of GDP.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 112

 Peru September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. 66.9 70.1 51.4 55.3
Barclays Capital 66.3 - 52.7 -
BBVA Banco Continental 63.4 65.9 54.0 55.8
BCP/Credicorp Capital 65.6 66.8 52.1 52.4
CABI 66.9 69.6 57.3 58.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 60.3 61.3 54.2 54.6
EIU 69.5 74.0 54.5 57.7
Euromonitor Int. 72.4 76.1 53.2 62.5
Fitch Ratings 69.4 71.5 58.1 60.5
Fitch Solutions 71.5 76.4 58.1 63.4
Goldman Sachs 68.6 71.7 51.3 53.3
HSBC 64.3 67.0 51.9 50.0
IEDEP - CCL 69.1 70.5 51.2 57.7 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Macroconsult 66.4 66.3 51.2 51.7
Oxford Economics 59.4 61.6 46.5 50.1
Pezco Economics 67.5 69.5 57.1 58.7
Rabobank 68.1 69.0 56.0 57.2
Scotiabank 66.3 65.9 51.2 51.2
Thorne & Associates 64.4 68.4 52.0 55.6
Torino Capital 72.3 - 56.0 -
UBS 67.9 70.3 55.5 57.9
Public Forecasts
CAF 66.1 68.8 51.8 53.2
Summary
Minimum 59.4 61.3 46.5 50.0
Maximum 72.4 76.4 58.1 63.4
Median 66.9 69.3 52.9 55.7
Consensus 66.9 69.0 53.5 55.9
History
30 days ago 67.0 69.0 54.3 56.1 38 | Imports | variation in %
60 days ago 66.8 68.6 54.6 56.3
90 days ago 66.8 68.7 55.5 56.7

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 113

 Peru September 2023

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

International Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. 74.7 75.0 - -
Barclays Capital 78.2 75.4 107 112
BCP/Credicorp Capital 74.0 74.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 74.7 76.1 - -
EIU 75.8 81.4 - -
Euromonitor Int. 77.0 79.2 - -
Fitch Ratings 74.1 74.6 - -
Fitch Solutions 75.8 79.6 - -
Goldman Sachs 72.0 72.4 - -
IEDEP - CCL 75.1 76.2 - -
JPMorgan 71.5 71.5 106 107
Oxford Economics 76.9 82.7 - -
Rabobank 73.0 73.9 - -
41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Scotiabank 73.5 74.0 - -
UBS 74.2 74.2 112 118
Summary
Minimum 71.5 71.5 106 107
Maximum 78.2 82.7 112 118
Median 74.7 75.0 107 112
Consensus 74.7 76.0 109 112
History
30 days ago 74.4 75.6 108 112
60 days ago 74.3 75.2 110 115
90 days ago 73.6 74.1 110 115

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

40 International reserves, months of imports.

41 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, in USD billion.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 114

 Peru September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Peru in the Region

Official name: Republic of Peru Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Lima (10.4m)
Other cities: Arequipa (0.9m)
Trujillo (0.8m)
Area (km2): 1,285,216
Population (million, 2019 est.): 33.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 26.3
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 74.7
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 5.6
Language: Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 9.6 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 121
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 52.5
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 7.2

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,100
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,118
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 51.3
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 45.8
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 143
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 255
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 52.7

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 191
Railways (km): 1,854
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 140,672
Waterways (km): 8,808 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Callao, Paita, Matarani

Political Data
President: Dina Boluarte
Last presidential elections: 6 June 2021
Next elections: 2024
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa1 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Negative

Strengths Weaknesses

• Mining, energy and fish • Large informal economy

resources • Inadequate infrastructure Imports
Exports
• Low public debt • High dependence on commodity
• Strong growth potential prices

. .

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 115

 Venezuela September 2023

Venezuela
Venezuela
Outlook deteriorates
• GDP should have increased at one of the region’s fastest annual rates in
2022 on the heels of an extremely low base effect. However, the economy
has seemingly lost steam so far in 2023. Oil output expanded feebly in
annual terms in January−July, following an average growth rate of more
than 20% last year. Moreover, the price of the country’s oil has averaged
lower this year to date than last year. In addition, inflation surged in the
first seven months of 2023. More positively, the U.S. government is
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages reportedly considering easing sanctions on the country’s oil sector if the
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
regime allows free and fair presidential elections. That said, the National
Population (million): 27.8 26.6 - Assembly’s decision in late August to name a Maduro loyalist to head the
GDP (USD bn): 122.8 137.9 -
electoral authority appears to point in the opposite direction.
GDP per capita (USD): 4,421 5,178 -
GDP growth (%): -19.1 6.1 3.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.5 -5.4 - • The pace of economic growth will cool this year from 2022. Lower oil
Public Debt (% of GDP): 254 - -
Inflation (%): 7,950 227 83 prices, slackening oil production growth, global headwinds, U.S. sanctions
Current Account (% of GDP): 1.2 0.9 - and higher inflation will weigh on activity. An easing of U.S. sanctions is
External Debt (% of GDP): 142 80 -
the key upside risk, although this appears increasingly unlikely due to
Massimo Bassetti President Maduro’s continued reluctance to hold free and fair elections.
Senior Economist FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.0% in 2023, which is
down by 0.8 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 3.5%
in 2024.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
• Inflation fell to 398% in July from 404% in June. Inflation has surged so
far this year amid a plunging currency. Price pressures are set to average
higher in 2023 than in 2022, stoked by substantial monetary financing
of the fiscal deficit and a falling bolívar in both the official and parallel
markets. A faster-than-expected depreciation of the bolívar is the key
upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising
346.2% on average in 2023, which is up by 54.9 percentage points from
one month ago, and rising 149.3% on average in 2024.

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 • The Central Bank aims to control monetary aggregates and manage
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.
currency liquidity via changes in indirect instruments. However,
money supply growth has been extremely elevated in recent years,
partly because of monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. Money
Oil Production Oil Price
supply growth is seen remaining in triple figures going forward, which
will frustrate efforts to tame inflation.FocusEconomics panelists
see the money supply rising 281% in 2023, which is down by 61.0
percentage points from one month ago, and rising 197% in 2024.

• The bolívar traded at VED 32.47 per USD on 7 September, depreciating

7.4% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at VED 34.87
per USD on 7 September, depreciating 5.0% month on month. The
bolívar should depreciate further by year-end due to continued monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and a lack of confidence in the currency.
Oil production, millions of barrels per Venezuelan oil price, USD per barrel.
day, Q4 2020 - Q4 2024. FocusEconomics panelists see the bolívar ending 2023 at VED 49.50 per
USD and ending 2024 at VED 129.02 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 116

 Venezuela September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 28.9 27.8 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.5 - - -
GDP per capita (USD) 7,061 5,398 3,810 4,053 4,786 5,183 5,565 - - -
GDP (USD bn) 204.1 150.2 106.5 111.8 128.8 137.6 147.3 155.4 - -
GDP (VES bn) - - - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) - - - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -19.6 -27.7 -30.0 0.5 11.8 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.0 2.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -17.5 -35.1 -10.3 6.0 10.8 3.3 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -20.1 -35.9 -15.4 0.4 11.0 3.3 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -9.1 -25.7 -26.4 4.9 8.9 5.2 5.3 3.5 3.0 3.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -37.5 -28.7 -30.1 -3.0 20.9 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -10.8 -11.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.7 4.0 9.2 3.9 4.1 4.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.3 -22.2 -20.6 -14.4 23.9 6.8 7.4 4.6 3.6 3.1
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -39.3 -40.1 -36.5 12.9 13.6 5.3 5.5 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.9 27.0 42.7 38.4 34.3 33.4 32.5 31.0 28.3 26.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -30.3 -10.0 -5.0 -4.6 -6.0 -5.4 -4.9 -3.3 -2.8 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 174.5 201.4 319.1 240.5 152.9 - - - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 63,257 4,946 1,287 635 354 281 197 - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 130,060 9,585 2,960 686 234 244 154 76 55 34
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 65,374 19,906 2,355 1,589 187 346 149 100 74 75
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.89 24.12 24.00 36.00 36.00 - - - - -
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %) 126,985 5,521 1,376 344 254 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 638 46,621 1,107,199 4.60 17.5 49.5 129.0 192.9 290.8 -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 81.9 15,910 375,470 4.45 6.77 32.3 89.3 161.0 241.8 -
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 730 54,703 998,942 4.69 19.3 59.0 183.6 - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.2 4.2 -1.6 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 - -
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 8.6 6.3 -1.7 1.2 1.6 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.0 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 20.9 12.8 1.6 2.3 3.7 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 33.7 22.0 9.2 11.2 16.4 16.0 16.5 16.4 17.0 16.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12.8 9.3 7.5 8.9 12.7 12.9 13.5 12.9 13.1 12.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -1.0 -34.5 -58.4 21.9 46.9 -2.4 3.1 -0.7 3.8 -0.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 6.3 -27.5 -18.7 18.2 42.6 1.5 4.5 -4.3 1.3 -3.2
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 62.2 54.0 28.0 51.3 76.8 58.5 59.9 - - -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -1.0 0.9 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 8.8 6.6 6.4 10.9 9.9 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.3 8.6 10.1 14.7 9.4 9.1 9.2 9.6 9.7 10.1
External Debt (USD bn) 108 117 107 106 109 110 111 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 53 155 174 95 85 80 75.3 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 8.0 6.2 2.7 3.4 5.1 4.5 4.3 3.8 4.8 4.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 157 234 440 404 - - - - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 8.15 17.2 24.4 27.8 37.6 57.9 - - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 6.66 10.8 22.5 25.7 32.7 47.8 - - - -
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 389 354 409 412 342 319 344 356 421 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 12.56 35.30 42.14 19.30 6.09 3.80 5.12 6.16 6.20 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 166 234 345 416 440 436 429 404 398 -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 10.9 17.2 21.9 24.3 24.4 24.7 26.1 27.8 29.4 32.1
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 13.2 18.6 23.1 24.9 25.0 25.6 28.0 29.4 31.6 34.2
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 66.9 58.2 61.7 62.0 57.3 62.6 56.2 57.4 63.3 -
Oil Production (mn barrels per day) 0.67 0.66 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.77 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.7

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. Exchange rate (VED per USD, aop) for 2021 only refers to the average of Bolívar Digital
(VED) for the period 1 October - 31 December 2021.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 117

 Venezuela September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %

Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV 2.0 4.4 - -
Allianz 0.8 0.0 - -
BancTrust & Co. 3.8 4.2 -5.8 -6.8
Capital Economics 2.5 - - -
DekaBank 0.5 3.5 - -
Dinámica Venezuela 3.9 3.1 - -
Ecoanalítica 2.9 4.6 - -
EIU 0.5 3.5 -4.4 -2.8
EMFI 4.4 - - -
Euromonitor Int. 4.3 3.3 - -
Fitch Solutions 1.0 3.7 -5.9 -5.0
FrontierView 4.7 3.3 - -
Julius Baer 0.9 -0.1 - -
Moody's Analytics 6.8 7.0 - - 2 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
Novo Banco 5.0 4.5 - -
Oxford Economics 0.9 -0.1 - -
Síntesis Financiera 3.3 4.3 - -
Torino Capital 1.6 - - -
UBS 7.0 7.0 - -
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 3.2 2.7 - -
Summary
Minimum 0.5 -0.1 -5.9 -6.8
Maximum 7.0 7.0 -4.4 -2.8
Median 3.1 3.5 -5.8 -5.0
Consensus 3.0 3.5 -5.4 -4.9
History
30 days ago 3.8 3.7 -4.8 -4.9
60 days ago 4.3 3.9 -4.4 -4.0
90 days ago 4.4 3.8 -4.4 -4.0
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD) and the IMF. See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: UNCTAD.

2 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 118

 Venezuela September 2023

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 5 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV - - - -
Allianz - - - -
BancTrust & Co. 3.6 4.4 5.9 6.5
Capital Economics 3.0 - 2.0 -
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 4.8 3.3 1.7 5.3
Ecoanalítica 2.0 3.7 0.8 1.0
EIU 0.3 2.3 8.5 5.0
EMFI - - - -
Euromonitor Int. 5.5 4.7 - -
Fitch Solutions 0.5 6.0 3.0 2.0
FrontierView 5.9 5.1 - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 6.4 6.5 8.3 6.3 6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Novo Banco - - - -
Oxford Economics 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0
Síntesis Financiera 3.3 5.8 - -
Torino Capital 3.3 - 6.7 -
UBS - - - -
Summary
Minimum 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.0
Maximum 6.4 6.5 8.5 6.5
Median 3.3 4.5 3.0 5.0
Consensus 3.3 4.2 4.2 3.7
History
30 days ago 3.8 4.0 5.1 3.5
60 days ago 4.5 4.1 7.8 4.3
90 days ago 4.8 3.9 7.4 3.7

7 | Investment | variation in %

8 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

6 Private consumption, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
7 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
8 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 119

 Venezuela September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 9 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV 238.0 185.0 - -
Allianz - - - -
BancTrust & Co. 203.7 99.6 335.1 108.6
Capital Economics - - - -
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 343.9 215.7 390.3 240.4
Ecoanalítica 258.9 124.8 351.7 141.0
EIU 199.8 84.8 336.6 94.2
EMFI 250.2 - 376.2 -
Euromonitor Int. - - 372.6 142.1
Fitch Solutions 245.0 114.0 - -
FrontierView - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - 335.5 93.8 10 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
Novo Banco - - 250.0 225.0
Oxford Economics - - - -
Síntesis Financiera 287.8 311.2 - -
Torino Capital 271.2 - 368.2 -
UBS 140.0 100.0 - -
Summary
Minimum 140.0 84.8 250.0 93.8
Maximum 343.9 311.2 390.3 240.4
Median 247.6 119.4 351.7 141.0
Consensus 243.8 154.4 346.2 149.3
History
30 days ago 233.2 118.0 291.3 127.8
60 days ago 231.4 139.6 298.2 141.9
90 days ago 231.3 137.4 291.9 149.2

11 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcsts

12 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (aop).
11 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 120

 Venezuela September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 13 | Current Account | USD bn

Current Account International Reserves
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV - - 9.7 10.9
Allianz - - - -
BancTrust & Co. 0.4 -1.5 - -
Capital Economics - - - -
DekaBank 1.3 1.7 - -
Dinámica Venezuela - - 9.8 10.0
Ecoanalítica -2.5 0.1 - -
EIU 1.3 1.7 9.6 9.8
EMFI 0.3 - - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 10.0 10.4
Fitch Solutions - - 10.1 10.3
FrontierView - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 1.1 2.6 - - 14 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
Novo Banco - - - -
Oxford Economics -2.2 -0.8 - -
Síntesis Financiera 2.5 3.4 - -
Torino Capital 1.3 - 8.9 -
UBS 3.0 3.5 10.5 10.5
Summary
Minimum -2.5 -1.5 8.9 9.8
Maximum 3.0 3.5 10.5 10.9
Median 1.2 1.7 9.8 10.4
Consensus 0.6 1.3 9.8 10.3
History
30 days ago 1.3 1.6 9.9 10.5
60 days ago 1.9 2.7 10.1 10.5
90 days ago 2.2 2.8 10.3 10.9

15 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

16 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

13 Current account balance in USD billion.

14 Current account balance in USD billion, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
15 International reserves, months of imports.
16 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 121

 Venezuela September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 17 | Trade Balance | USD bn

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
AGPV 19.9 22.8 21.0 24.0
Allianz - - - -
BancTrust & Co. 13.4 13.7 11.2 13.6
Capital Economics - - - -
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 11.7 13.5 9.9 10.4
Ecoanalítica 12.6 16.3 11.6 12.5
EIU 17.5 18.9 16.4 17.3
EMFI 19.1 - 13.0 -
Euromonitor Int. - - 12.4 11.3
Fitch Solutions 13.6 15.5 10.6 12.4
FrontierView - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - - - 18 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Novo Banco - - - -
Oxford Economics 9.9 11.2 7.6 7.8
Síntesis Financiera 15.8 17.6 12.4 13.3
Torino Capital 24.6 - 17.2 -
UBS 18.0 19.0 11.2 12.0
Summary
Minimum 9.9 11.2 7.6 7.8
Maximum 24.6 22.8 21.0 24.0
Median 15.8 16.3 12.0 12.5
Consensus 16.0 16.5 12.9 13.5
History
30 days ago 16.7 17.1 12.9 14.1
60 days ago 17.7 18.1 13.4 14.1
90 days ago 17.9 17.7 13.2 14.0

19 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

20 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

17 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.

18 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
19 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
20 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 122

 Venezuela September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Venezuela in the Region*

Official name: Bolivarian Republic of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Venezuela
Capital: Caracas (2.9m)
Other cities: Maracaibo (2.1m)
Valencia (1.7m)
Area (km2): 912,050
Population (million, 2019 est.): 27.6
Population density (per km2, 2019): 30.2
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): -0.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 71.0
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 2.9
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-4.30

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Communications (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 19.2 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 72
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 64.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 9.0

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 6,242
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,493
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 104
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 69.5
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,077
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 493
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 154

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 444
Railways (km): 447
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 96,189
Waterways (km): 7,100 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: La Guaira, Maracaibo

Political Data
President: Nicolás Maduro Moros
Last presidential elections: 20 May 2018
Next presidential elections: 2024 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Calixto Ortega Sánchez

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: - -
S&P Global Ratings: - - Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: Restricted Default -

Strengths Weaknesses

• Abundant wealth in natural • Government's heavy intervention

resources in the economy
Exports Imports
• Strategic geographic location • Rampant currency depreciation
between South America and the • Dependence on oil
Caribbean • Runaway inflation

*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 123

untries

Bolivia September 2023

Bolivia
Bolivia
Outlook improves
• GDP growth was 3.5% last year, equaling the average of the prior 10 years.
Recent data shows GDP growth weakened to 2.3% in Q1 of this year due
to slowing private and government spending and a slump in exports. The
slowdown was expected given earlier high-frequency data. Looking ahead,
high-frequency data suggests that the economy likely remained weak in
Q2. In Q2, cement output fell slightly year on year (Q1: +3.2% yoy), and
natural gas production dropped 14% (Q1: -10% yoy). Cement output is a
proxy for the construction industry, and its drop potentially indicates that
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
higher input costs and interest rates this year have discouraged building
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
Population (million): 11.6 12.1 12.6 work. Meanwhile, the fall in natural gas production largely reflects a recent
GDP (USD bn): 39.3 46.2 52.4 lack of government funding for exploration wells. In other news, in August,
GDP per capita (USD): 3,380 3,806 4,147
GDP growth (%): -0.1 2.7 2.7 the government said it hoped for upgrades to its credit ratings after paying
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -9.8 -6.7 -5.7
the last installment of a USD 500 million loan.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 72.9 83.5 86.0
Inflation (%): 1.2 2.9 3.4
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
-0.4
38.9
-1.6
44.0
-2.5
51.3
• The economy is seen expanding less this year than last year as the base
effect toughens, global GDP growth weakens and gas output declines.
Matthew Cunningham
Commodity prices are a key factor to monitor, as the plummet in natural
Economist
gas prices since late last year will likely strain the external and fiscal
balances. Social unrest and renewed pressure on the currency peg are
downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.3% in
2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
expanding 2.4% in 2024.

• Inflation was stable at 2.7% in July. The currency peg and government
subsidies have contained inflation in recent years. Our panelists see
Bolivia maintaining one of the region’s lowest inflation rates this year
and next. Key factors to watch include changes to the currency peg,
government subsidies, export controls and the El Niño weather pattern.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.9% on average
in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 4.1% on
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 average in 2024.
Source: Instituto Nacional de forecasts during the last 12 months.
Estadística (INE).

Inflation Change in inflation forecasts

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: INE.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 124

 Bolivia September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8
GDP per capita (USD) 3,552 3,560 3,153 3,428 3,685 3,810 3,924 4,069 4,113 4,261
GDP (USD bn) 40.2 40.8 36.7 40.4 44.1 46.2 48.2 50.7 52.0 54.6
GDP (BOB bn) 278 283 253 279 304 320 340 373 407 448
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.4 1.5 -10.4 10.3 8.9 5.1 6.5 9.7 9.2 10.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.2 2.2 -8.7 6.1 3.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.3 3.7 -7.9 5.3 4.2 2.4 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.1 3.8 -2.8 5.4 4.0 1.8 0.4 1.4 1.6 1.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.2 -3.5 -25.9 11.9 6.5 2.7 1.9 3.1 - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.2 -1.8 -18.8 15.4 15.6 -4.0 0.7 2.6 - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.9 1.5 -25.0 15.7 7.6 2.0 -0.1 3.1 - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -8.1 -7.2 -12.7 -9.3 -7.3 -6.6 -6.1 -6.0 -5.7 -5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 53.1 59.3 78.0 81.4 82.6 82.7 85.1 85.8 86.1 86.2
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.4 -7.5 14.1 6.6 4.0 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.9 3.1 3.3 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.1
Prime Lending Rate (%, eop) 8.04 8.40 7.59 8.02 7.76 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.93 6.91 6.89 6.91 6.93 6.91 7.21 7.53 8.15 8.25
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 6.93 6.92 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.92 7.06 7.37 7.84 8.20
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.3 -3.3 -0.1 2.2 -0.4 -2.1 -2.4 -2.3 -2.8 -2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.7 -1.4 0.0 0.9 -0.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.4 -0.3 0.6 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 8.9 8.8 7.0 11.0 13.5 12.4 13.0 12.9 13.1 13.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.3 9.1 6.4 8.8 11.9 11.4 11.9 12.0 12.5 13.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 9.9 -1.3 -20.6 56.4 23.5 -8.7 4.9 -0.6 1.3 4.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 7.0 -2.1 -29.8 37.0 35.6 -4.5 4.7 1.0 3.5 4.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.3 -0.2 -1.1 0.6 0.0 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.2 4.4 2.7 2.2 1.3 - - - - -
International Reserves (months of imports) 9.2 5.7 5.0 3.1 1.3 - - - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 13.2 14.3 15.4 16.0 18.6 20.3 22.1 24.3 26.7 29.8
External Debt (% of GDP) 33.0 35.0 42.1 39.5 42.2 44.0 45.8 47.9 51.4 54.5
0

1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD 3 | Current Account | % of GDP

Notes and sources

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

General:
Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 125

 Bolivia September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Bolivia in the Region

Official name: Plurinational State of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Bolivia
Capital (Administrative): La Paz (1.8 m)
Capital (Judicial): Sucre (0.2 m)
Other cities: Cochabamba (1.2 m)
Area (km2): 1,098,581
Population (million, 2019 est.): 11.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 10.7
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.4
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 70.4
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 7.5
Language: Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-4

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 6.3 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 100.8
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 44.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 4.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 852
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 343
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 9.5
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 8.3
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 77.3
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 102.3
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 21.7

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 855
Railways (km): 3,960
Roadways (km): 90,568 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 10,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Puerto Aguirre

Political Data
President: Luis Arce
Last elections: 18 October 2020
Next elections: October 2025
Central Bank President: Roger Edwin Rojas Ulo Exports Imports

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Caa1 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: B- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B- Negative

Strengths Weaknesses

• Rich in natural resources • Landlocked country

• Tourism potential • Highly dependent on the
• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector Exports Imports
• Elevated levels of poverty

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 126

 Ecuador September 2023

Ecuador
Outlook moderates
Ecuador

• The economy should have expanded at a faster clip in Q2, following a

deceleration in year-on-year growth in Q1. Economic activity increased at
a considerably faster annual pace, on average, in April−June than in Q1.
Meanwhile, in mid-August Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s rating
into junk territory, from “B-” to “CCC+”, on heightened financing risks
stemming from a marked deterioration in the public finances amid social
turmoil and political uncertainty. In politics, Luisa Gonzalez of former
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages president Correa’s Citizen Revolution Movement won the first round of
the presidential elections on 20 August, ahead of Daniel Noboa. While the
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
Population (million): 17.5 18.3 19.0 former advocates higher social spending, the latter focuses on improving
GDP (USD bn): 105 119 135 the business climate, introducing tax incentives for businesses and job
GDP per capita (USD): 5,970 6,516 7,092
GDP growth (%): -1.2 2.2 2.3 creation. The two candidates will face each other in the 15 October runoff.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.1 -1.0 -0.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 57.9 53.7 51.5
Inflation (%): 0.0 2.8 2.3
• Our panel sees GDP growing at a softer pace this year than in
Current Account (% of GDP): 1.7 1.2 1.3 2022. Weaker domestic demand, tighter financing conditions and
External Debt (% of GDP): 49.5 - -
protracted political instability will take a toll on activity. However,
Massimo Bassetti robust oil and shrimp output should sustain growth. A weaker-
Senior Economist than-expected global economy and further sociopolitical instability
remain the main downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics
panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2023, which is down by 0.1
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.8% in 2024.

• Inflation rose to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July. Inflation should remain
fairly low through Q4 2023, dampened by a dollarized economy, tighter
financing conditions and soft domestic activity. However, higher global
energy prices will provide some upward pressure. Swings in agricultural
prices as a result of the El Niño weather pattern are a key factor to watch.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.4% on average
in 2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 2.6% on average in 2024.
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.

Inflation Change in inflation forecasts

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2024.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 127

 Ecuador September 2023

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity growth accelerates in June

Economic Activity | variation in % Economic activity rose 12.2% compared to the same month a year earlier
in June, which was an improvement from May’s 5.5% increase. The result
marked the best reading since February 2022.

Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of
economic activity coming in at 13.1%, down from May’s 14.2% reading.

FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2023, which is down

by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.8% in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises in August

Inflation rose to 2.6% in August, above July’s 2.1%. August’s result represented
the highest inflation rate since March. Looking at the details of the release,
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity
in %. prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a quicker rate while
Source: Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador)
prices for transportation fell at a softer pace in August.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Annual average inflation fell to 2.9% in August (July: 3.0%).

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.50% in August over the previous month,
largely in line with the 0.54% increase logged in July.

FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.4% on average in

2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
2.6% on average in 2024.

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %.

Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 128

 Ecuador September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3
GDP per capita (USD) 6,319 6,261 5,670 5,979 6,390 6,475 6,684 7,015 7,030 7,231
GDP (USD bn) 107.6 108.1 99.3 106.2 115.0 118.2 123.8 131.7 133.8 139.6
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.1 0.5 -8.2 6.9 8.4 - - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 0.0 -7.8 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.2 -0.9 -10.2 8.1 3.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 2.3 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 0.3 -8.2 10.2 4.6 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.5 -2.0 -5.1 -1.7 4.5 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.0 -3.3 -19.0 4.3 2.5 -0.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.2 3.6 -5.4 -0.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.4 0.3 -13.8 13.2 4.5 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.2
Industry (ann. var. %) -1.0 0.2 -10.0 0.5 1.1 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.1 4.4 6.1 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.3 - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -3.5 -7.1 -1.6 0.1 -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 49.8 53.0 63.6 57.1 54.2 53.9 52.8 52.3 51.3 50.9
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.3 -0.1 -0.9 1.9 3.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) -0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.1 3.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.1
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 5.43 6.17 5.89 5.91 6.35 - - - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.1 2.2 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.3 -0.2 2.2 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.2 1.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.6 1.6 2.8 2.9 2.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22.2 22.8 20.6 27.0 33.0 31.3 30.5 32.6 33.3 33.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 22.4 21.7 17.1 24.0 30.5 28.7 28.9 29.8 30.5 31.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.3 2.8 -9.7 31.1 22.5 -5.3 -2.6 6.9 2.3 0.1
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 15.9 -2.7 -21.4 40.3 27.2 -5.8 0.7 2.9 2.3 1.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.8 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.7 3.4 7.2 7.9 8.5 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.9 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 1.4 1.9 5.1 4.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.1 -
External Debt (USD bn) 40.2 46.1 52.5 56.2 57.5 61.0 - - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 37.4 42.6 52.9 53.0 50.0 51.6 - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.7 4.3 0.7 3.0 2.3 1.2 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.4
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 1.7 2.3 -3.4 - - - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.1 3.7 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.9 3.8 3.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.9
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %) 2.7 -0.2 2.1 0.5 -0.6 0.2 5.5 12.2 - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 35.1 36.7 36.5 35.3 35.7 35.5 34.4 35.3 35.6 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.01 0.16 0.12 0.02 0.06 0.20 0.09 0.37 0.54 0.50
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 3.6 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.6

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 129

 Ecuador September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2011-2027 | var. in %

Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. 0.6 0.0 -1.2 -2.6
Barclays Capital 1.7 2.0 -1.6 -2.1
CABI 1.5 1.0 -1.0 -2.0
Capital Economics 2.5 2.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 1.5 0.0 -0.7
EIU 1.2 1.7 -1.0 -1.9
EmergingMarketWatch 1.9 2.5 - -
EMFI 1.6 0.8 -1.5 -0.5
Euromonitor Int. 1.9 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
Fitch Ratings 1.4 1.7 -1.2 -1.5
Fitch Solutions 1.5 1.0 -2.5 -2.0
FrontierView 2.2 1.8 - -
Goldman Sachs 1.2 2.9 -2.4 -1.6
Humboldt Management 1.0 1.6 - - 2 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts
JPMorgan 1.1 1.4 - -
Moody's Analytics 4.2 2.2 -4.3 -4.0
Oxford Economics 1.9 2.9 -0.6 0.6
Torino Capital 1.7 - -0.1 -
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 2.3 2.6 - -
World Bank 2.6 2.8 - -
Summary
Minimum 0.6 0.0 -4.3 -4.0
Maximum 4.2 2.9 0.0 0.6
Median 1.7 1.8 -1.2 -1.8
Consensus 1.8 1.8 -1.5 -1.7
History
30 days ago 1.9 1.9 -1.5 -1.5
60 days ago 2.1 2.0 -1.3 -1.3
90 days ago 2.2 2.1 -0.9 -0.8
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and the IMF. See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.

2 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 130

 Ecuador September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 5 | Inflation | 2011-2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.2
Barclays Capital 2.7 - - -
CABI 2.5 3.0 - -
Capital Economics 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.4 1.0 - -
EIU 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.0
EmergingMarketWatch 3.0 3.0 - -
EMFI 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.5
Euromonitor Int. - - 2.3 2.0
Fitch Ratings - - 2.8 1.8
Fitch Solutions 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.0
FrontierView - - 2.3 1.8
Goldman Sachs 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.7
Humboldt Management 2.0 1.5 - - 6 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %
JPMorgan 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.4
Moody's Analytics - - 3.6 7.4
Oxford Economics 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.5
Torino Capital 2.2 - 2.3 -
Summary
Minimum 1.4 1.0 2.0 1.5
Maximum 3.5 3.0 3.6 7.4
Median 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1
Consensus 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.6
History
30 days ago 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5
60 days ago 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4
90 days ago 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.0

7 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcsts

8 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the National
Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

5 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

6 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
7 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 131

 Ecuador September 2023

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 9 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account International Reserves
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. 1.0 -0.8 - -
Barclays Capital 1.2 0.3 7.3 6.4
CABI - - - -
Capital Economics - - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.0 1.0 9.0 9.0
EIU 0.7 0.1 7.3 7.5
EmergingMarketWatch - - - -
EMFI 0.7 -0.3 - -
Euromonitor Int. 0.9 0.5 6.7 6.5
Fitch Ratings 1.5 1.4 7.8 7.0
Fitch Solutions 0.8 0.7 6.5 6.0
FrontierView - - - -
Goldman Sachs 1.4 1.3 8.3 9.0
Humboldt Management 1.0 1.0 - - 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
JPMorgan 0.4 -0.6 - -
Moody's Analytics 2.5 -0.5 - -
Oxford Economics 1.6 1.9 - -
Torino Capital 0.3 - - -
Summary
Minimum 0.3 -0.8 6.5 6.0
Maximum 2.5 1.9 9.0 9.0
Median 1.0 0.5 7.3 7.0
Consensus 1.2 0.5 7.6 7.3
History
30 days ago 1.2 0.8 8.2 8.0
60 days ago 1.4 1.1 8.5 8.9
90 days ago 1.2 0.8 8.5 8.6

11 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

12 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Current account balance as % of GDP.

10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
11 International reserves, months of imports.
12 International reserves, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 132

 Ecuador September 2023

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 13 | Trade Balance | USD bn

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
BancTrust & Co. 28.8 26.6 28.2 28.2
Barclays Capital - - - -
CABI 34.1 34.8 24.5 31.1
Capital Economics - - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 30.0 28.4 27.6 28.4
EIU 32.9 33.9 30.1 31.4
EmergingMarketWatch - - - -
EMFI 29.8 28.8 28.4 28.3
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
Fitch Ratings 32.2 31.3 30.2 29.3
Fitch Solutions 29.1 27.8 28.7 27.6
FrontierView - - - -
Goldman Sachs 31.6 34.4 28.7 30.5
Humboldt Management 29.5 30.1 28.0 28.6 14 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
JPMorgan - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - - -
Oxford Economics 29.5 28.7 27.5 25.9
Torino Capital 36.6 - 34.1 -
Summary
Minimum 28.8 26.6 24.5 25.9
Maximum 36.6 34.8 34.1 31.4
Median 30.0 29.4 28.4 28.5
Consensus 31.3 30.5 28.7 28.9
History
30 days ago 31.4 30.9 28.7 29.1
60 days ago 31.9 31.3 28.9 29.3
90 days ago 32.4 34.9 29.5 30.5

15 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

16 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

13 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.

14 Trade balance, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
15 Exports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Imports, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 133

 Ecuador September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Ecuador in the Region

Official name: Republic of Ecuador Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Quito (1.8m)
Other cities: Guayaquil (2.9m)
Cuenca (0.3m)
Area (km2): 283,561
Population (million, 2019 est.): 17.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 62.6
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.5
Illiteracy rate (%, 2017): 7.2
Language: Spanish, Quechua
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 13.8 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 92
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 57.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 11.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,369
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 715
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 28.6
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 24.9
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 533
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 256
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 39.6

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 432
Railways (km): 965
Roadways (km): 43,216 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 1,500 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Guayaquil, Manta

Political Data
President: Guillermo Lasso
Last elections: 11 April 2021
Next elections: 15 October 2023 Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Guillermo Avellán Solines

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Caa3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: B- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: CCC+ -

Strengths Weaknesses

• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dollarization limits scope to

• Tourism potential adjust to external shocks
Exports Imports
• Diverse climate enables a wide • Polarized political system
range of crops • High dependence on oil exports

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 134

 Paraguay September 2023

Paraguay
Paraguay
Outlook stable
• Last year, GDP stagnated, making the country Latin America’s worst-
performing economy. In Q1 of this year, year-on-year GDP growth sped up
sharply to 5.2% thanks to stronger exports plus private and government
spending and a softer decline in fixed investment. In Q2, GDP growth
likely remained robust, with economic activity expanding at a faster year-
on-year pace than in the prior quarter. Output in agriculture, electricity,
manufacturing and services supported activity in the quarter, according
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages to the statistics office. In other news, Santiago Peña took office as prime
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27
minister on 15 August. He will face a host of challenges ahead: Rising
Population (million): 7.3 7.6 7.9 crime, juggling ties with both China and Taiwan, a U.S. probe into his
GDP (USD bn): 37.7 44.3 52.9
GDP per capita (USD): 5,195 5,855 6,721 political mentor and the risk to agricultural output posed by the El Niño
GDP growth (%): 0.9 2.7 3.8 weather pattern.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.2 -2.4 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP): 33.4 41.7 -
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
3.1
0.2
6.2
-2.9
3.8
-1.2
• Paraguay will be among LATAM’s fastest-growing economies this year,
External Debt (% of GDP): 50.9 - - but this will be largely due to the low base of comparison created by last
year’s stagnation. That said, underlying activity should be aided by lower
Matthew Cunningham
inflation and better weather after last year’s drought. El Niño is a key
Economist
risk—agriculture would be boosted by moderate rainfall but hurt by heavy
rainfall. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.3% in 2023,
which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 3.9% in 2024.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
• Inflation slowed for the seventh consecutive month to 2.9% in August
(July: 3.5%), below the Central Bank’s 4.0% target. Average inflation
should remain roughly stable for the rest of the year before rising in 2024.
Declining inflation led the Central Bank to cut its policy rate for the first
time in more than three years on 23 August—by 25 basis points to 8.25%.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.0% on average
in 2023, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 3.7% on average in 2024.

GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024

Source: Banco Central del Paraguay forecasts during the last 12 months.
(BCP).

Inflation Change in inflation forecasts

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: BCP.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 135

 Paraguay September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0
GDP per capita (USD) 5,690 5,297 4,872 5,414 5,579 5,831 6,156 6,419 6,720 7,023
GDP (USD bn) 40.1 37.9 35.3 39.8 41.6 44.1 47.1 49.8 52.8 55.9
GDP (PYG bn) 230,576 236,681 239,915 270,634 291,336 323,430 346,229 371,129 399,684 428,199
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.2 2.6 1.4 12.8 7.6 11.0 7.0 7.2 7.7 7.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 -0.4 -0.8 4.0 0.1 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 6.4 0.2 -2.8 10.1 2.5 0.5 4.4 3.8 3.9 3.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.3 1.8 -3.6 6.1 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.5 4.0 3.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.0 4.7 5.1 2.6 -5.7 4.3 2.7 3.5 4.1 3.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.9 -6.1 5.3 18.2 -2.3 0.5 6.4 6.3 4.9 3.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.4 -3.4 -9.0 2.1 -1.6 9.3 4.4 3.6 - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.2 -2.0 -15.2 21.8 5.6 4.1 4.1 3.1 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.6 5.7 7.2 6.8 5.7 - - - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -2.8 -6.1 -3.6 -3.0 -2.4 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 22.3 25.8 36.9 37.5 40.9 41.8 42.5 - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.2 7.2 19.1 6.8 3.0 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.2 2.8 2.2 6.8 8.1 4.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.0 2.8 1.8 4.8 9.8 5.0 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 5.25 4.00 0.75 5.25 8.50 6.90 5.30 5.17 5.17 5.17
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 5,960 6,464 6,897 6,906 7,366 7,317 7,376 7,528 7,601 7,707
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 5,746 6,246 6,789 6,798 7,006 7,342 7,347 7,452 7,565 7,654
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.2 -0.6 2.0 -0.8 -6.7 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.1 -0.2 0.7 -0.3 -2.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.6 -1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 13.2 12.1 11.0 13.2 12.8 14.6 15.4 15.8 16.4 17.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12.6 11.9 9.7 12.6 14.7 14.5 15.4 15.6 16.3 17.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 1.5 -8.1 -9.6 20.7 -3.1 13.9 5.6 2.3 3.7 5.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 11.6 -5.5 -18.3 29.4 17.1 -1.7 6.0 1.8 3.9 6.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 8.0 7.7 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.9 10.6 - - -
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.6 7.7 11.7 9.5 8.0 8.2 8.3 - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 15.8 16.4 19.8 21.4 - - - - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 39.4 43.2 55.9 53.6 - - - - - -

1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Public Debt | % of GDP 3 | Current Account | % of GDP

Notes and sources

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank of Paraguay
(BCP, Banco Central del Paraguay), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ministry of the Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda). See below for details. Forecasts based
on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH and BCP.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 136

 Paraguay September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Paraguay in the Region

Official name: Republic of Paraguay Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Asunción (3.2m)
Other cities: Ciudad del Este (0.2m)
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2): 406,752
Population (million, 2019 est.): 7.4
Population density (per km2, 2019): 18.1
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 6.0
Language: Spanish, Guaraní
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-4

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 4.4 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 107
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 65.0
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 4.6

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 546
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 518
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 59.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 11.6
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 60.1
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.2

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 799
Railways (km): 30.0
Roadways (km): 74,676 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 3,100 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Asunción

Political Data
President: Santiago Peña
Last elections: 30 April 2023
Next elections: 2028
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: José Cantero Sienra

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Ba1 Positive
S&P Global Ratings: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable

Strengths Weaknesses
• Favorable conditions for • Vulnerability to commodity price
agriculture swings
• Commitment to structural • Dependence on neighboring Exports Imports
reforms economies
• Stable source of income from
hydroelectric dams

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 137

 Uruguay September 2023

Uruguay
Outlook moderates
Uruguay

• After growing in Q1, the economy likely contracted year on year in Q2 on

the back of double-digit interest rates and as a severe drought weighed
on hydroelectrical generation, agricultural output and the food processing
industry. The volume of agricultural exports plummeted 45% in annual
terms in the quarter, with food-related manufacturing exports down 7%.
More positively, inflation dipped notably in the quarter, which, together
with strong wage growth, should have supported private consumption.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages Heading into Q3, GDP is expected to return to growth, thanks to rate cuts
2019-21 2022-24 2025-27 by the Central Bank, a further pullback in inflation, and the easing of the
Population (million): 3.5 3.6 3.6 historic drought. Recent rains saw the water level at the Paso Severino
GDP (USD bn): 59.0 78.3 92.5
GDP per capita (USD): 16,708 21,939 25,701 dam, which supplies water to Montevideo, rise to close to 50% capacity in
GDP growth (%): -0.1 3.0 2.4 late August from single digits at end-Q2.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.0 -2.6 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP): 67.9 67.6 -
Inflation (%): 8.5 7.3 5.2 • GDP growth is seen decelerating this year relative to 2022 due to drought
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 -2.8 -1.7 hampering agricultural and industrial output. However, the El Niño
External Debt (% of GDP): 80.1 73.9 -
weather pattern should bring more rain in H2, helping alleviate drought
Adrià Solanes
conditions in the period. Rainfall levels and tensions within Mercosur over
Economist
Uruguay’s attempts to sign bilateral trade deals are key factors to watch.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2023, which is
down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.7%
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts in 2024.

• Inflation came in at 4.1% in August, which was down from July’s 4.8%
and well within the Central Bank’s 3.0–6.0% target range. August’s
figure marked the lowest inflation rate since September 2005. Inflation
should remain within the Bank’s target range in H2 despite an expected
slight uptick by year-end on monetary easing and higher oil prices.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on average
in 2023, which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 6.2% on average in 2024.
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024
2020 - Q4 2024. forecasts during the last 12 months.
• On 15 August, the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) reduced its policy rate
by 75 basis points to 10.00%, more than the 50 basis point cut the market
was expecting. The move marked the continuation of the monetary policy
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
easing cycle that the Bank kicked off in April. The Consensus is for more
rate cuts by the end of this year and for monetary easing to persist in
2024. FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending
2023 at 9.39% and ending 2024 at 8.33%.

• The peso traded at UYU 37.88 per USD on 7 September, appreciating

1.0% month on month. The peso is seen weakening from its current level
by end-2023 as further rate cuts by the BCU narrow the positive interest
rate differential with the U.S. Faster-than-expected monetary easing by
the BCU poses a depreciatory risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2023 and 2024
average variation in %, Q4 2020 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months. peso ending 2023 at UYU 40.18 per USD and ending 2024 at UYU 42.38
2024.
per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 138

 Uruguay September 2023

REAL SECTOR | Industrial output growth dips in June

Industrial Production | variation in % Industrial output rose 0.4% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a
deterioration from May’s 0.9% increase. The figure was largely due to weaker
food output. In addition, chemical substances and products output lost pace.

Meanwhile, annual average industrial production growth fell to 0.5% in June

(May: +0.7%), which marked an over two-year low.

FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production expanding 1.1% in 2023,

which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
2.5% in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level since September 2005

in August
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production
in %.
Inflation came in at 4.1% in August, which was down from July’s 4.8% and
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE). well within the Central Bank’s 3.0%–6.0% target range. August’s figure marked
Inflation | Consumer Price Index the lowest inflation rate since September 2005. Looking at the details of the
release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a weaker
pace in August while prices for clothing and footwear dropped at a sharper
pace.

Over-decade low inflation in Uruguay can be attributed to the change in the

Central Bank’s monetary framework from 2020, when the Bank switched to
using interest rates as the main policy tool to meet the inflation target, as well
as the lowering of the upper bound of the target range to 6% from 7% last year.

In addition, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at
7.3% in August (July: 7.8%). Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.17% in August over
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Expectations the previous month, swinging from the 0.36% drop recorded in July.
of monthly variations of consumer price index in %.
Source: INE.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.5% on average in
2023, which is down by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
6.2% on average in 2024.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank cuts policy rate more than expected
in August
Monetary Policy Rate | in % On 15 August, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Uruguay
(BCU) reduced its policy rate by 75 basis points to 10.00%, more than the 50
basis point cut the market was expecting. The move marked the continuation of
the monetary policy easing cycle that the Bank kicked off in April.

The Bank justified its decision by pointing toward the recent slowdown in
inflation to within the 3.0–6.0% target range, as well as its expectation that
inflation and inflation expectations would continue to ease in the months ahead.
The move was also likely linked with the Bank’s view that drought hit economic
activity in Q2.

The Bank did not provide explicit forward guidance. Instead, it reiterated that
future decisions would be driven by the evolution of inflation and inflation
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
Source: Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). expectations. Our panelists see the BCU cutting rates further before year-end.

The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for 5 October.

FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2023 at 9.39%
and ending 2024 at 8.33%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 139

 Uruguay September 2023

Economic Indicators | 2018 - 2027

Annual Data 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Real Sector
Population (million) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
GDP per capita (USD) 18,609 17,620 15,189 17,313 20,004 22,476 23,337 24,550 26,025 26,527
GDP (USD bn) 65.2 62.0 53.6 61.3 71.1 80.2 83.5 88.1 93.7 95.8
GDP (UYU bn) 2,003 2,188 2,255 2,675 2,930 3,109 3,383 3,809 4,180 4,408
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.5 9.2 3.1 18.6 9.6 6.1 8.8 12.6 9.7 5.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.2 0.7 -6.3 5.3 4.9 1.3 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 0.6 -0.3 -4.7 6.5 5.1 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.6 -6.8 2.9 6.0 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 1.9 -7.1 8.4 1.6 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -10.5 -2.0 1.2 16.5 9.5 2.2 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.1 4.6 -16.3 11.7 11.1 2.4 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.6 1.3 -12.2 18.2 12.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 10.8 -1.6 -5.2 12.3 3.6 1.1 2.5 2.8 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.4 8.9 10.4 9.3 7.9 8.2 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -3.2 -5.2 -3.5 -3.2 -2.7 -1.8 -1.4 -2.6 -2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 59.0 60.1 74.4 69.1 67.1 67.3 68.3 - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 8.9 5.1 18.5 17.8 0.4 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.0 8.8 9.4 8.0 8.3 5.8 6.3 5.7 4.9 4.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.6 7.9 9.8 7.7 9.1 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.0 4.9
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 9.7 12.8 10.5 14.4 12.4 -3.8 2.9 5.9 - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 9.25 9.25 4.50 5.75 11.25 9.39 8.33 7.31 - -
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop) 5.12 5.07 4.79 3.80 6.24 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 32.5 37.7 42.2 44.7 39.7 40.2 42.4 44.1 45.2 46.9
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 30.7 35.3 42.0 43.6 41.2 38.8 40.5 43.2 44.6 46.0
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.5 1.2 -0.8 -2.5 -3.5 -3.1 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.3 0.8 -0.4 -1.6 -2.5 -2.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.4 3.1 2.2 4.5 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.8 4.6 4.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.8 11.9 10.1 15.7 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.0 20.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.4 8.8 7.9 11.2 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 5.9 0.7 -15.2 56.0 8.8 2.9 5.3 5.3 2.7 4.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 2.5 -6.8 -9.7 41.9 21.4 1.7 3.8 2.2 4.9 6.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.0 2.0 0.8 2.2 3.8 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 15.6 14.5 16.2 17.0 15.1 15.5 15.6 17.1 18.3 19.1
International Reserves (months of imports) 19.9 19.9 24.6 18.1 13.3 13.5 13.0 13.9 14.3 14.0
External Debt (USD bn) 43.0 45.2 47.1 48.8 55.5 57.9 59.8 61.1 - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 66.0 72.9 87.8 79.5 78.1 72.2 71.6 69.4 - -
Quarterly Data Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.4 -0.1 1.2 -0.4 1.8 2.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9.9 8.3 7.3 6.0 4.8 5.8 5.4 6.2 6.5 6.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 9.7 8.6 7.6 6.9 5.4 5.8 6.2 5.9 6.5 6.0
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 41.6 39.7 39.0 37.6 38.7 39.4 39.8 40.3 41.2 41.9
Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -5.9 1.1 0.6 1.0 4.1 -3.0 0.9 0.4 - -
Unemployment (% of active population) 7.8 7.9 8.5 8.1 8.6 8.8 8.7 8.2 7.8 -
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 2.4 0.4 2.0 3.3 16.6 8.7 9.8 8.6 8.1 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.28 -0.26 1.55 1.00 0.90 0.75 -0.01 -0.46 -0.36 0.17
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.3 7.6 7.1 6.0 4.8 4.1
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 39.6 39.7 38.8 39.1 39.0 38.6 38.8 37.6 37.7 37.8

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 140

 Uruguay September 2023

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2011 - 2027 | var. in %
Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Barclays Capital 1.0 2.5 -3.0 -2.8
BBVA Argentina 2.0 2.3 - -
Capital Economics 1.5 2.5 - -
CINVE 1.0 3.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.0 2.7 -3.2 -
EIU 1.0 3.0 -4.0 -3.2
Equipos Consultores 1.2 2.5 - -
Euromonitor Int. 1.4 2.8 - -
Fitch Ratings 1.8 2.8 -3.2 -2.8
Fitch Solutions 1.8 2.6 -2.8 -2.5
FrontierView 1.8 2.3 - -
HSBC 1.2 3.0 - -
Iecon - UdelaR 1.0 3.2 - -
Itaú Unibanco 1.0 3.6 - - 2 | GDP 2023 | evolution of forecasts

JPMorgan 1.0 2.5 - -

Julius Baer 0.3 2.2 - -
Moody's Analytics 1.8 2.6 0.6 5.5
Oikos 1.9 2.3 -3.1 -3.5
Oxford Economics 1.2 2.2 -3.2 -3.0
República AFAP 1.1 3.5 - -
Torino Capital 1.9 - - -
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 1.0 2.6 - -
World Bank 1.8 2.8 - -
Summary
Minimum 0.3 2.2 -4.0 -3.5
Maximum 2.0 3.6 0.6 5.5
Median 1.2 2.6 -3.1 -2.8
Consensus 1.3 2.7 -2.7 -1.8
History
30 days ago 1.5 2.7 -3.2 -2.8 3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
60 days ago 1.6 2.7 -3.2 -2.8
90 days ago 1.7 2.6 -2.9 -2.5

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. The Consensus Forecast for Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) contains a range of definitions. All real sector
data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay) and Ministry of Economy and Finance
(Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas de Uruguay.) See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.

2 GDP, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU and Ministry of Economy and Finance.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 141

 Uruguay September 2023

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 5 | Inflation | 2011 - 2027 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Barclays Capital 7.4 6.8 - -
BBVA Argentina 6.6 5.5 6.5 5.7
Capital Economics 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.3
CINVE 5.4 7.2 6.0 6.1
Citigroup Global Mkts 6.5 5.5 6.6 6.1
EIU 5.1 6.0 5.9 5.5
Equipos Consultores 4.7 6.1 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 6.7 6.4
Fitch Ratings - - 7.2 6.6
Fitch Solutions 5.0 6.0 6.6 6.5
FrontierView - - 7.4 7.0
HSBC 5.2 5.6 - -
Iecon - UdelaR 6.2 6.5 6.0 6.0
Itaú Unibanco - - 7.0 6.5 6 | Inflation | Q4 20-Q4 24 | in %

JPMorgan 5.8 7.0 5.9 5.6

Julius Baer - - 7.3 6.5
Moody's Analytics 5.0 6.0 6.1 5.7
Oikos 5.3 6.6 6.0 6.1
Oxford Economics 7.3 6.5 7.3 6.5
República AFAP 5.1 7.6 - -
Torino Capital 7.5 - 6.4 -
Summary
Minimum 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.5
Maximum 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.0
Median 5.3 6.1 6.5 6.2
Consensus 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.2
History
30 days ago 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.4
60 days ago 7.1 6.3 7.0 6.4
90 days ago 7.3 6.6 7.2 6.6
7 | Inflation 2023 | evolution of fcsts

8 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

5 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

6 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
7 Inflation, evolution of 2023 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 142

 Uruguay September 2023

Monetary and External Sector | Exchange Rate and Current Account

Exchange Rate and Current Account 9 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD
Exchange Rate Current Account
UYU per USD % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2023 2024 2023 2024
Barclays Capital 44.0 45.0 -4.6 -2.3
BBVA Argentina 39.7 42.3 -3.2 -2.8
Capital Economics 45.0 47.0 - -
CINVE - - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 40.0 42.0 -2.8 -2.9
EIU 38.3 40.7 -4.7 -3.0
Equipos Consultores 39.2 41.6 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - -1.3 -1.0
Fitch Ratings 40.4 41.8 -2.7 -1.7
Fitch Solutions 39.0 41.0 -3.7 -2.6
FrontierView - - - -
HSBC 38.0 - -2.1 -1.4
Iecon - UdelaR 38.5 41.5 -4.5 -
Itaú Unibanco 40.5 42.0 -3.0 1.0 10 | UYU per USD | evolution of fcsts

JPMorgan 40.5 - -3.2 -2.2

Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 40.1 42.5 -2.2 -2.1
Oikos 38.5 41.0 - -
Oxford Economics 40.5 42.6 -2.8 -2.2
República AFAP - - - -
Torino Capital 40.6 - -2.4 -
Summary
Minimum 38.0 40.7 -4.7 -3.0
Maximum 45.0 47.0 -1.3 1.0
Median 40.1 42.0 -2.9 -2.2
Consensus 40.2 42.4 -3.1 -1.9
History
30 days ago 40.5 43.0 -2.9 -1.9
60 days ago 40.5 42.9 -2.9 -1.9
90 days ago 41.7 43.9 -2.4 -1.5
11 | Current Account | % of GDP

12 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2011 to 2027 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de
Uruguay) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
10 Exchange rate, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
11 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
12 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2023 and 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 143

 Uruguay September 2023

Fact Sheet

General Data Uruguay in the Region

Official name: Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital: Montevideo (1.7 m)
Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2): 176,215
Population (million, 2019 est.): 3.5
Population density (per km2, 2019): 20.1
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.3
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 1.3
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-3

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 33.4 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 150
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 74.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.3

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 123
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 220
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 13.5
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 10.4
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.0
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 49.1
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 6.7

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 133
Railways (km): 1,673
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 77,732
Waterways (km): 1,600 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Montevideo

Political Data
President: Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou
Last elections: 24 November 2019
Next elections: 2024 Exports Imports
Central Bank Govenor: Diego Labat

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa2 Positive
S&P Global Ratings: BBB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Stable political environment • Highly dollarized economy

• Strong public institutions • Dependence on neighboring
Exports Imports
• Abundant natural resources economies
• Small domestic market

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 144

 Notes September 2023

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2023 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
under International Copyright Conventions.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates and
the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
a monthly basis. Weights are based on Consensus Forecasts for of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
nominal GDP (USD billion). FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.U.
The regional aggregates include the following countries: Gran Via 657
E-08010 Barcelona
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Spain
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, tel: +34 932 651 040
fax: +34 932 650 804
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico,
e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and web: http://www.focus-economics.com
Tobago and Uruguay.
Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador
and Peru.
Central America and Caribbean (13 countries): Belize, Costa
Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and
Trinidad and Tobago.
Mercosur (4 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and
Uruguay.
World: 131 countries, comprising around 98% of global output.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The
Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this
information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of
their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment
objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any
transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the
Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 145

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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 132 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

MAJOR ECONOMIES & SWITZERLAND G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France,
Germany & Italy), Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS PLUS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, North Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate, 10-Year Bond Yield and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 35 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas
(Europe), Natural Gas (U.S), Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybedenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm oil, Soybeans, Sugar, Rice, Wheat and Wool

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