One-click report : Argentina

December 6th 2022

One-click report : Argentina

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 One-click report : Argentina
December 6th 2022

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One-click report : Argentina

Briefing sheet
Argentina | Summary | Briefing sheet

November 9th 2022

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Political and economic outlook

• Argentina is the third-largest economy in Latin America. Although it bene�ts from a wealth of natural resources, a
diversi�ed industrial base and a highly skilled labour force, statist and interventionist policies expose the economy to
persistent boom-bust cycles.
• The left-wing Frente de Todos (FdT) government is on the back foot as it continues to grapple with internal divisions
centring on a much-needed, but politically unpopular, extended fund facility (EFF) with the IMF. EIU believes that the
centre-right Juntos por el Cambio (JC) opposition alliance will take power at the October 2023 general election.
• We expect the FdT administration to implement the macroeconomic adjustment measures outlined in the EFF, if only
out of economic necessity. However, its commitment to policy orthodoxy is weak, and there is a risk of it abandoning
the EFF, precipitating a fresh economic crisis in the process.
• Argentina will enter a recession in 2023, as a result of belt-tightening measures and a darkening global outlook.
Assuming that policy consolidation begins to engender macroeconomic stability, the medium-term outlook is brighter.
However, weak trade integration and a shallow domestic �nancial system will continue to pose challenges.
• The government's biggest challenge will be to rein in in�ation. Pending adjustments to regulated prices and the o�cial
exchange rate—at a time of elevated international food and fuel prices—will complicate e�orts to anchor in�ation
expectations.
• Argentina will remain one of the region's highest-taxed countries, to the detriment of the investment climate. An exodus
of high-income individuals and businesses to more tax-friendly jurisdictions (such as Uruguay) will continue at least
until the 2023 election.
• Growing geopolitical tensions will put Argentina's policy of strategic non-alignment to the test. We assume that
Argentina will be able to maintain good working relations with both China and the US (it relies on both countries for
�nancing), but risks abound.

Key indicators

2022a 2023b 2024b 2025b 2026b 2027b

Real GDP growth (%) 5.2 -0.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 2.8

Consumer price inflation (av; %) 73.8 97.3 53.3 39.7 30.1 25.2

Government balance (% of GDP) -4.4 -3.8 -2.9 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6

Current-account balance (% of GDP) -0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -0.8

Short-term interest rate (av; %) 53.5 73.0 62.0 43.3 32.0 26.0

Unemployment rate (%) 7.0 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.8 6.6

Exchange rate Ps:US$ (av) 130.99 251.34 407.84 594.01 761.73 894.29

a EIU estimates. b EIU forecasts.

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Key changes since October 18th

• A recent cabinet shu�e in response to political pressure on the unpopular government has not altered our view on the
political or policy outlook. The new ministers are pragmatists, in line with our expectation that moderates will remain
in control of policy.
• We have made moderate adjustments to our exchange-rate forecasts for 2023 to show faster depreciation, on the
assumption that this will be necessary to bridge the large gap with the black-market exchange rate (and proliferating
multiple parallel rates).

The month ahead

• December—Third EFF review: We have pencilled in another disbursement from the EFF before year-end, on the
assumption that the IMF programme remains broadly on track and that the Fund is lenient on minor �scal slippage. The
main issue to monitor is exchange-rate policy, particularly the Fund's stance on multiple exchange rates.
• TBC—New wage negotiations: The �rst round of collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) earlier this year resulted in a
median wage increase of 52% for workers. As in�ation is on track to cross 100% by end-2022, unions have started to
trigger review clauses in CBAs. There is a high risk of this aggravating an incipient wage-price spiral.

Major risks to our forecast

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Scenarios, Q4 2022 Probability Impact Intensity

The new IMF deal veers off course Very high Very high 25

Policymakers fail to rein in an inflationary spiral Very high Very high 25

A formal split in the ruling coalition severely impedes political stability and governability High Very high 20

The government's access to the local debt market becomes more restricted High Very high 20

The Argentinian peso is devalued High Very high 20

Note. Scenarios and scores are taken from our Risk Briefing product. Risk scenarios are potential developments that might
substantially change the business operating environment over the coming two years. Risk intensity is a product of probability and
impact, on a 25-point scale.

Source: EIU.

Outlook for 2023-27: Forecast summary

Argentina | Economy | Forecast | Forecast summary

November 9th 2022

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Forecast summary

(% unless otherwise indicated)

2022a 2023b 2024b 2025b 2026b 2027b

Real GDP growth 5.2 -0.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 2.8

Industrial production growth 5.7 -1.0 3.1 3.5 4.3 3.3

Gross agricultural production growth -3.2 1.0 3.1 4.2 3.5 2.8

Unemployment rate (av) 7.0 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.8 6.6

Consumer price inflation (av) 73.8 97.3 53.3 39.7 30.1 25.2

Consumer price inflation (end-period) 103.3 73.9 48.5 34.5 26.8 23.9

Prime lending rate 50.2 69.5 69.2 52.2 41.0 35.0

NFPS balance excl privatisation (% of GDP) -4.4 -3.8 -2.9 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6

Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) 90.8 87.5 88.5 91.0 94.7 99.9

Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) 78.4 71.4 75.8 78.8 81.7 84.8

Current-account balance (US$ bn) -3.4 0.6 -3.8 -5.5 -7.3 -6.2

Current-account balance (% of GDP) -0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -0.8

External debt (year-end; US$ bn) 272.4 283.2 289.9 293.2 298.2 301.3

Exchange rate Ps:US$ (av) 130.99 251.34 407.84 594.01 761.73 894.29

Exchange rate Ps:US$ (end period) 181.59 316.15 511.68 683.44 831.10 963.66

Exchange rate Ps:€ (av) 136.06 248.83 418.03 632.62 853.14 1,037.38

Exchange rate Ps:€ (end-period) 175.23 320.90 532.14 741.53 959.92 1,117.84

a EIU estimates. b EIU forecasts.

Political stability
Argentina | Politics | Forecast | Political stability

November 9th 2022

The president, Alberto Fernández of the left-wing Frente de Todos (FdT) Peronist coalition, will serve out the rest of his
term, which ends in December 2023, as a lame duck whose main objective is to keep Argentina from entering a new
political or economic crisis (or both). However, this will be no easy feat given the chaotic political landscape. Mr
Fernández's biggest challenge will be to contain in-�ghting in the unwieldy FdT, which is divided into a moderate
faction (which the president represents) and a faction of left-wing hardliners, led by the in�uential vice-president,
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
Frictions between the two wings centre on economic policy and �scal consolidation. After a damaging period of market
volatility caused by these political tensions, the centrist, pragmatist wing has taken control for now, led by Sergio Massa,
a veteran politician who has been named economy "super minister" and as such has free rein over all aspects of
economic policy. Crucially, Mr Massa is widely considered to have the political capital required to build consensus in the

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FdT around the need for macroeconomic adjustment and has appeared to commit to measures of that kind (if only for
reasons of political survival), despite a track record of populist policymaking. EIU believes that Mr Massa will be
successful in keeping Argentina's extended fund facility (EFF) with the IMF on track, but there are major risks to this
benign assumption.
As economic conditions worsen in the coming months, Mr Massa is likely to come under pressure to backtrack on policy
tightening from diverse stake-holders including the Kirchnerists, Peronist governors and mayors, and Argentina's
powerful trade unions and social movements. Against this backdrop, governability will remain extremely challenging
until the presidential election in October 2023, at the very least. The government's strategy for maintaining unity amid
these pressures, and in a di�cult economic environment, will be to lean in to the grieta (the political polarisation that
pits Peronists against non-Peronists in Argentina) to shore up the support of its base by emphasising major areas of
dispute in the political sphere, such as free speech and judicial reform. However, by exacerbating polarisation, this
strategy will raise risks to stability as campaigning for the general election begins.
For its part, the centre-right Juntos por el Cambio (JC) coalition, which currently seems best placed to win the presidency
in 2023, is under pressure to tack further to the right in response to the rise of a far-right populist libertarian politician,
Javier Milei. This shift to the right will ensure that clashes between the country's two biggest political forces continue,
contributing to legislative paralysis and political instability in the near term. Although we currently expect a change of
government following next year's general election, political tensions are likely to remain high, and Argentina's healthy
tradition of political protest could spill over into more damaging unrest.

Election watch
Argentina | Politics | Forecast | Election watch

November 9th 2022

All eyes are on Argentina's next presidential and legislative elections, scheduled for October 2023. Amid strong anti-
incumbency sentiment and a di�cult economic situation, we believe that the upcoming polls are the JC's to lose.
The FdT's chances of retaining the presidency rest on Mr Massa's stewardship of the economy. Although our baseline
forecast assumes that Mr Massa makes some progress in correcting macroeconomic distortions, stag�ationary
economic conditions will still prove highly damaging to the FdT's political prospects. On that basis, we expect the JC to
take power at end-2023.
However, there are risks attached to this view; for example, it is not yet clear who will run on the JC ticket, as many
potential candidates from the centre and the right wing of the coalition are jockeying for position. Another major source
of uncertainty stems from the role played by Mr Milei and his supporters. Opinion polls suggest that the libertarian
movement has evolved into a political force in its own right, with backing from as much as one-�fth of the electorate. In
this environment, the main risk to our assumption of a JC victory is a scenario in which a split vote, the increasing
in�uence of right-wing populism, and an improvement in the economy relegate the JC to third place, setting up a
second-round run-o� for the presidency between the FdT candidate and Mr Milei.

International relations
Argentina | Politics | Forecast | International relations

November 9th 2022

Argentina's membership of Mercosur (a customs union that also includes Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) will constrain
trade policy throughout 2023-27, given that ideological di�erences between the members will stymie attempts to reform
or expand the trade bloc. Regardless of the government in power, we expect Argentina to prioritise strengthening ties
with both the US and China. The Fernández administration has sought to keep the US on side, largely because that
country has a strong in�uence over multilateral institutions (including the IMF) on which Argentina is reliant for
continued external funding. A prospective JC administration would probably seek to develop these ties by engaging with

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US �rms on nearshoring e�orts; Argentina's vast lithium resources could play an important role in strengthening the
US's automotive supply chain.
Despite an increasingly polarised geopolitical landscape, we expect Argentina to continue wooing China as well. The
Fernández government's participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative has paved the way for increased Chinese
investment in Argentina's energy, mining, infrastructure and technology sectors; we expect the next Argentinian
administration to build on these e�orts.

Policy trends
Argentina | Economy | Forecast | Policy trends

November 9th 2022

The Fernández administration's main priority will be to implement the adjustment measures set out under the country's
EFF, in order to retain access to external �nancing and attempt to put the economy back on a path to stability. The
success of these e�orts rests on Mr Massa's shoulders. To his advantage, Mr Massa's political power and skill will help
him to unify the unwieldy ruling coalition. Moreover, early signs as to policy under Mr Massa (and the team of
experienced, well-respected economists that he has assembled to assist him) give us cause for cautious optimism on the
economic stabilisation front. Nevertheless, the risk of policy missteps—whether inadvertent (given the challenges
involved in correcting Argentina's severe macroeconomic distortions) or deliberate (resulting from political pressures)—
will remain high in the near term, weighing heavily on the economic outlook.
To his credit, Mr Massa has announced concrete measures to address investor concerns about the policy mix. In order to
rein in budgetary imbalances, the administration will hasten its retrenchment of energy subsidies, institute a public-
sector-wide hiring freeze and implement cuts to discretionary spending. This will help the government to reduce its
reliance on central bank �nancing, which has played a signi�cant role in stoking in�ation in recent years.
Government measures aimed at tackling imbalances in currency markets have been rather less orthodox. Mr Massa has
introduced several measures to shore up Argentina's foreign reserves position, including incentives for soft-commodity
exports and technology and tourism services exports, and hefty levies on services imports. In doing so, however, he has
e�ectively expanded Argentina's system of multiple informal exchange rates. Our baseline view is that these measures
will only remain in place temporarily, to build up the �repower of the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA,
the central bank) and allow it to implement a controlled devaluation of the o�cial peso. There is, however, a risk that the
government instead opts to formalise the multiple exchange-rate system in an attempt to stave o� a balance-of-
payments crisis. Not only would such a move stoke tensions with the Fund (which has warned Argentina against
multiple currency practices), but it would also aggravate the mismatch between the demand and supply of the peso,
adding to in�ationary pressures.
Moreover, the pivot to more pragmatic policy does not indicate a substantive improvement in the business
environment, which will remain marred by cumbersome regulations, wide-ranging price and capital controls, rigid
labour laws, and a dearth of private-sector �nancing. Assuming that the Fernández administration avoids a major
economic crisis in the run-up to next year's general election, we expect Argentina to consolidate the shift towards
economic orthodoxy under a new government from December 2023. This assumption underpins our policy and
economic forecasts. In theory, a JC administration could pursue an agenda that is more ambitious in terms of
macroeconomic and structural reforms than is currently envisaged under the EFF. However, this is not our baseline
forecast, as �scal austerity is unpopular and free-market reforms would encounter resistance from vested interests.

Fiscal policy
Argentina | Economy | Forecast | Fiscal policy outlook

November 9th 2022

Since his appointment Mr Massa has made concerted e�orts to restore a semblance of �scal order. However, we still

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believe that the government is unlikely to meet its EFF targets, both this year and next. Our benign view is that �scal
slippage will not be so signi�cant as to prevent fresh IMF disbursements, but there are clear risks to this assumption.
Fiscal adjustment in 2022-23 will be driven largely by spending cuts. We expect the government to make progress on
paring back energy and transport subsidies, rationalising capital outlays and withdrawing pandemic-related stimulus.
However, the scope for expenditure retrenchment will be complicated by increased safety-net spending and by rising
(in�ation-indexed) pension costs. On the revenue side, gains will be modest, coming from increased collection of
commodity export taxes, minor reforms to property and fuel taxes, and more stringent tax enforcement. Attempts to
introduce more signi�cant revenue-raising reforms will founder in the evenly divided Congress. Taking these factors
together, we estimate that the primary �scal de�cit will come in at 2.8% of GDP in 2022 and expect it to narrow to 2.2%
of GDP in 2023 (slightly missing IMF targets in both cases).
We expect greater progress on �scal consolidation in the medium term, assuming increased subsidies retrenchment and
improved tax compliance. However, there are still reasons to be concerned about the long-term health of the public
�nances, including the need for pension reform to ensure long-term a�ordability and a sharp rise in debt service from
2025. Our forecasts do not currently include another restructuring, but Argentina will be locked out of international
capital markets for several more years, and we believe that the government will have little option but to seek a new
lending arrangement with the Fund once the current EFF expires in 2024—or else default on its external debt again.

Monetary policy
Argentina | Economy | Forecast | Monetary policy outlook

November 9th 2022

After an extended period of loose monetary policy that contributed to spiralling in�ation, the BCRA has tightened policy
markedly in 2022, and we believe that the end of its tightening cycle is approaching. The benchmark Leliq rate has risen
by an enormous 3,700 basis points so far this this year, to 75% in nominal terms. Given that this rate is still signi�cantly
below 12-month-ahead in�ation expectations, which are hovering close to 100%, we expect the BCRA to lift rates to 85%
by year-end. However, it is still possible that the bank will hold the rate, as the annual e�ective rate, which it has been
tracking since 2020, is already well into positive territory in real terms.
Assuming that in�ation gradually subsides over 2023 and beyond, there will be scope for some moderate interest-rate
cuts. However, even with extremely tight monetary policy, disin�ation will be slow to set in. This partly re�ects the
continued use of interventionist measures—including interest-rate caps and directed lending—which hamper the
e�ective functioning of monetary policy. The onus for correcting these distortions is likely to fall to the next
government.

Global forecast data

Argentina | Economy | Forecast | International assumptions

November 9th 2022

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2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Economic growth (%)

US GDP 1.5 0.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.8

OECD GDP 2.5 0.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8

World GDP 2.8 1.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6

World trade 3.8 1.8 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7

Inflation indicators (% unless otherwise indicated)

US CPI 7.9 3.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1

OECD CPI 8.9 5.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.1

Soybean (measured in US$) 13.7 -8.8 -4.4 -6.3 -7.9 -7.9

Oil (Brent; US$/b) 101.2 89.9 84.8 80.8 76.8 72.8

Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) 15.1 -9.8 -3.4 -1.0 -2.8 -2.8

Financial variables

US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) 1.9 4.6 4.3 3.3 2.5 2.3

Exchange rate Ps:US$ (av) 130.99 251.34 407.84 594.01 761.73 894.29

Economic growth
Argentina | Economy | Forecast | Economic growth

November 9th 2022

We believe that the Argentinian economy is heading for a hard landing in 2023, following solid estimated GDP expansion
of 5.2% in 2022. We expect Argentina to enter a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction) by the
�rst quarter of 2023, and for real GDP to decline by 0.8% in full-year 2023.
A number of factors that supported growth in the �rst half of 2022—including the post-pandemic release of pent-up
consumer demand, the purchase of durable goods as a hedge against in�ation and elevated commodity prices—will start
to fade in the coming quarters. A darkening global economic environment will also constrain gains from the external
sector. Most importantly, sharp policy tightening will take a severe toll on consumption and investment.
Assuming an orderly macroeconomic adjustment, we expect GDP to bounce back in the medium term, growing by an
average of 2.9% in 2024-27. Crucially, this benign outlook depends on the successful implementation of the EFF (which
will help to lay the foundations for greater macroeconomic stability).

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Economic growth

% 2022a 2023b 2024b 2025b 2026b 2027b

GDP 5.2 -0.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 2.8

Private consumption 8.8 -1.4 4.1 2.7 4.0 3.5

Government consumption 0.7 -2.6 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4

Gross fixed investment 12.0 -3.0 6.5 3.5 3.0 3.0

Exports of goods & services 5.3 -0.2 7.6 7.1 6.1 5.1

Imports of goods & services 20.1 -5.4 7.5 4.4 4.6 5.0

Domestic demand 8.1 -1.9 3.8 2.5 3.3 2.9

Agriculture -3.2 1.0 3.1 4.2 3.5 2.8

Industry 6.0 -0.4 2.8 3.2 3.8 2.8

Services 6.0 -1.3 2.3 2.6 3.4 2.8

a EIU estimates. b EIU forecasts.

Inflation
Argentina | Economy | Forecast | Inflation

November 9th 2022

Argentina's poor in�ation dynamics stem fundamentally from �scal pro�igacy. We expect that �scal policy will tighten
over the coming years and that in�ation will subside, albeit not immediately.
Having soared to over 100% by end-2022, in�ation is likely to remain in the triple digits for most of next year, although
we forecast that it will subside to 73.9% by end-2023, partly re�ecting a high base of comparison. However, as in�ation
expectations are currently unanchored, there is a substantial risk that in�ation will continue to accelerate instead. It will
take years of commitment to tighter macroeconomic policy to reverse these dynamics and bring in�ation down, and we
expect in�ation to remain above 20% even at the end of our �ve-year forecast period.

Exchange rates
Argentina | Economy | Forecast | Exchange rates

November 9th 2022

Currency depreciation pressure has been severe in 2022 and will remain so for long as �scal, monetary and exchange-
rate policy credibility are weak. The government is responding in two ways. First, the BCRA has overseen a steady,
controlled depreciation of the peso, which we expect to continue for the next year or so, at a rate of about 5% per month
(or possibly slightly faster). Secondly, in recent months the authorities have given their seal of approval for the
proliferation of what are in e�ect multiple exchange rates that are intended to provide a sort of subsidy for important
sectors by allowing them to access foreign exchange at or around the black-market rate, which, at Ps290:US$1, trades at a
premium of about 80% to the o�cial rate (Ps160:US$1). We assume that this shift to de facto multiple exchange rates will
prove temporary, partly because of the economic distortions that it will engender and partly because the IMF will not
support that policy (and Argentina is reliant on the Fund for foreign exchange).

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Given these factors, we expect the authorities to continue to implement a gradual adjustment of the o�cial currency
while also attempting to bolster broader economic policy credibility, all with a view to reducing the gap between the
black-market and o�cial rates, eliminating the perceived need for multiple exchange rates and reducing depreciation
pressure. Our exchange-rate forecasts for 2023 and into the medium term are based on these expectations, and on the
benign assumption that these measures are rolled out relatively successfully. On this basis, we project an end-2023
formal exchange rate of Ps316:US$1 and continued real currency depreciation for most of the rest of our forecast period.
Risks to these are assumptions are high. Given the BCRA's limited stock of liquid reserves, the potential for overshooting
will be signi�cant.

External sector
Argentina | Economy | Forecast | External sector

November 9th 2022

The current account is not the source of Argentina's balance-of-payments problems; we expect a mild current-account
surplus in 2023 and modest de�cits in 2024-27. Instead, the country's main challenge on the external front will come
from a lack of access to dollars with which to meet its �nancing requirement. On the capital account, EFF credits will be
the main source of external �nancing support, assuming that disbursements continue even if the government misses its
targets. Foreign direct investment (FDI) will be below potential, portfolio �ows will be negative and capital �ight will
persist. These trends suggest that a recovery of the reserves position is likely only in the medium term (assuming in any
case that there is progress on macroeconomic stabilisation).

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Argentina | Business | Business environment | Rankings overview

November 21st 2022

Value of indexa Global rankb Regional rankc

2018-22 2023-27 2018-22 2023-27 2018-22 2023-27

4.86 5.58 68 65 9 8

a Out of 10. b Out of 82 countries. c Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic,

Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.

• Argentina rises by three places in the global rankings in the 2023-27 forecast period but remains close to the bottom of
the countries covered in our model. Its score is constrained not only by macroeconomic instability but also by its
unattractive environment for taxes, �nancing and infrastructure.

Business environment at a glance

Argentina | Business | Business environment | Business environment at a glance

November 21st 2022

Policy towards private enterprise and competition

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2023-24: Ad hoc interventionism keeps con�dence in private property rights and regulatory framework weak.
2025-27: Some price controls remain in place. New government makes moderate progress in improving regulatory
environment, but con�dence in rules of the game remains weak.

Policy towards foreign investment

2023-24: Little fresh foreign direct investment (FDI) materialises despite government e�orts to lift in�ows in some
sectors. Some preference is given to domestic �rms.
2025-27: FDI increases slowly in major sectors such as mining and energy.

Foreign trade and exchange controls

2023-24: Stalled e�orts to expand free trade do not resume. Risk of ad hoc trade restrictions remains high.
2025-27: Capital controls are partially relaxed. Ongoing risk of trade disputes with partners in Mercosur (Southern Cone
customs union comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay).

Taxes
2023-24: Approach towards export duties is inconsistent. Government introduces ad hoc taxes to address �scal
challenges.
2025-27: Government closes some tax loopholes and provides modest tax incentives to promote labour formalisation.

Financing
2023-24: Banking penetration remains weak and long-term credit is restricted, particularly for small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs), owing to weak long-term deposit base.
2025-27: Non-bank �nancing grows but is constrained by relatively small pool of institutional investors.

The labour market

2023-24: High in�ation causes tensions with unions; incidence of work stoppages and strikes rises.
2025-27: Next government makes piecemeal e�orts to loosen labour laws. Potential for con�ict with unions remains.
Some skills shortages persist.

Infrastructure
2023-24: Macroeconomic instability and restricted access to �nancing public-private partnership (PPP) investments.
2025-27: Some public and private investment should improve energy supply and upgrade export infrastructure, but risk
of energy shortages persists as demand grows.

Technological readiness
2023-24: Quality of e-commerce business environment remains good. 5G rollout is likely to advance.
2025-27: Scope of e-government broadens as part of e�orts to reduce red tape. Research and development spending
remains relatively low as a percentage of GDP compared with more developed markets.

Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards

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Argentina | Business | Market opportunities | Social indicators and living standards

May 5th 2022

Social indicators and living standards

2021 2026

Argentina Latin America (av) Argentina Latin America (av)

Health

Healthcare spending (% of GDP) 9.8 8.3 9.6 8.3

Healthcare spending (US$ per head) 944 683 1,208 896

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 9.6 13.9 8.6 12.5

Physicians (per 1,000 population) 4.2 2.6 4.5 2.8

Food and beverages

Food, beverages & tobacco (% of household spending) 40.5 40.5 36.9 36.9

Meat consumption (kg per person) 93.5 78.1 97.8 82.6

Milk consumption (litres per person) 189.0 134.0 199.0 140.0

Coffee & tea consumption (kg per person) 6.0 3.4 6.2 3.6

Consumer goods in use (per 1,000 population)

Passenger cars 276 222 269 247

Telephone main lines 152 157 123 148

Mobile phone subscribers 1,240 1050 1,320 1,140

Television sets 409 707 401 806

Personal computers 660 491 743 648

Households

No. of households (m) 12,350 131,840 12,880 136,040

No. of people per household (av) 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

Income and income distribution

Median household income (US$) 18,060 13,630 26,290 17,720

Average monthly wage (US$) 477 487 675 605

Gini index 42.3a – – –

a Latest available year.

Sources: UN Statistical Office; World Bank; Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO); Euromonitor; World Health Organisation
(WHO); national statistical offices; International Telecommunication Union (ITU); EIU estimates and forecasts.

Global position

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Argentina | Regulation | Global position

September 1st 2022

Argentina is the third-largest economy in Latin America. Although it bene�ts from a wealth of natural resources, a
diversi�ed industrial base and a highly skilled labour force, statist and interventionist policies expose the economy to
persistent boom-bust cycles. The main priority of the administration of President Alberto Fernández,
of the left--wing Frente de Todos Peronist coalition, will be to implement the adjustment measures set out under
Argentina’s extended fund facility programme with the IMF, which was agreed in March 2022. This would enable
Argentina to retain access to external �nancing and attempt to put the economy back on a path to stability. The
appointment of the experienced Sergio Massa, who is viewed as a pragmatist, as economy minister in July 2022 bodes
well in this regard. However, the risk of policy missteps, whether inadvertent (given the challenges involved in
correcting Argentina’s severe macroeconomic distortions) or conscious (resulting from political pressures), will remain
high in the near term and will weigh heavily on the economic outlook. Overall, the ongoing pivot to more pragmatic
policy will not be indicative of a substantive improvement in the business environment, which will remain marred by
cumbersome regulations, wide-ranging price and capital controls, rigid labour laws, and a dearth of private-sector
�nancing.

Regulatory/market assessment
Argentina | Regulation | Regulatory/market assessment

September 1st 2022

• In March 2022 the administration of President Alberto Fernández agreed a 30-month extended fund facility programme
with the IMF worth US$45bn. The deal will provide Argentina with much-needed �nancing and allow the government to
roll over large repayments to the Fund, which otherwise would have been due in 2022–24. However, the programme is
unlikely to remedy the large number de�ciencies in Argentina’s investment climate.
• In February 2022 Argentina joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, allowing it to secure direct investment commitments

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of nearly US$24bn. The move will pave the way for signi�cant Chinese investment in Argentina’s energy, infrastructure
and technology sectors, among others. However, in�ows are unlikely to come in anywhere near the announced amount.
• In August 2022 the government announced a 21% rise in the monthly minimum wage in three instalments over the
subsequent three months. The pay �oor will increase from Ps47,850 to Ps51,200 in September 2022, rising further to
Ps54,550 in October 2022 and Ps57,900 in November 2022.
• A price freeze on fuels applied from May 2021 until February 2022, after which gasoline prices were allowed to increase
four times in 2022, most recently in August 2022. The Precios Cuidados price control programme, which applies to basic
goods sold in supermarkets, remains in e�ect on more than 900 items.
• During 2021 and 2022, the Fernández administration has rolled back certain capital controls imposed at the start of its
term, in an e�ort to attract investment. However, the changes remain limited in scope, and policy inconsistency around
the controls is likely to remain a deterrent for investors.
• In October 2021 Mercosur (the Southern Cone customs union) member countries agreed to reduce the bloc’s common
external tari� (CET) by 10%. The reduction, which came into e�ect in July 2022 in Argentina, applies to items taxed at
4–14% previously. The CET no longer applies to items that were taxed at 2%.

Regulatory/market watch
Argentina | Regulation | Regulatory/market watch

September 1st 2022

• Since early 2020, the government has implemented several measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus (covid-19)
pandemic, including two nationwide lockdowns. By September 2021, most coronavirus restrictions had been lifted. As of
end-August 2022, just under 84% of the population had received a full course of vaccination against the coronavirus.
• Since the onset of the pandemic, the government has unveiled a host of measures to support workers and businesses.
Several of these programmes were extended through 2022, including cash transfers to informal workers, small
independent contractors and certain retirees.
• In June 2022 the Chamber of Deputies (the lower house) approved a bill aimed at taxing undeclared overseas assets
owned by Argentinian residents (both individuals and companies). A tax of 20% of the total asset value would apply for
assets disclosed within the �rst six months of the law entering into force, after which it would increase to 35%. The bill
stood before the Senate (the upper house) as of end-August 2022.
• Rati�cation of the free-trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur (the Southern Cone customs union) remains
uncertain as of end-August 2022. Sticking points include increasing protectionism among the partner countries and the
EU’s concern about a surge in deforestation within Brazil’s Amazon rainforest.
• For 2022, the O�ce of the US Trade Representative kept Argentina on its Priority Watch List of countries with the most
problematic protection and enforcement regimes for intellectual-property rights. Problem areas include an ine�cient
patent-application process, weak and cumbersome enforcement mechanisms, and widespread use of unlicensed
software.
• In October 2021 Argentina was among the more than 130 countries that endorsed the OECD’s global tax deal, aimed at
taxing multinational companies and their digital activities more e�ectively. Once adopted, possibly in 2023, it would
introduce sweeping changes to international tax rules, including a 15% minimum corporate tax and provisions to tax
large companies based on where their goods and services are sold.

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook

Argentina | Economy | Long-term outlook | Long-term outlook

May 5th 2022

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2022-30 2031-50 2022-50

Population and labour force (% change; annual av)

Total population 0.81 0.56 0.64

Working-age population 0.89 0.48 0.60

Working-age minus total population 0.07 -0.08 -0.04

Labour force 0.93 0.69 0.76

Growth and productivity (% change; annual av)

Growth of real GDP per head 1.7 1.9 1.8

Growth of real GDP 2.5 2.5 2.5

Labour productivity growth 1.3 1.8 1.6

Growth of capital stock 2.0 2.8 2.6

Total factor productivity growth 1.0 1.0 1.0

Abundant natural resources and a skilled labour force underpin potential

Argentina has historically been susceptible to cycles of boom and bust, re�ecting a vulnerability to external conditions
and domestic policy challenges. In fact, the country has spent more than a third of its time since 1950 in recession. EIU's
long-term growth forecast assumes that economic realities will force Argentina to adopt a more sustainable model of
economic development that reduces �scal and external imbalances. Nonetheless, given the scale of the challenges that
lie ahead, we expect growth to remain modest, at an annual average of 2.5% in the 2022-50 long-term outlook period.
Initial conditions: Argentina's GDP per head of an estimated US$10,753 in 2021 (US$22,298 at purchasing power parity) is
one of the highest in the region. However, even in PPP terms, Argentina's GDP is still less than a third of the US �gure,
suggesting that income convergence to developed-country levels is still a way away. The internal market is relatively
large and, although the territory is extensive, there are few internal geographical obstacles. However, Argentina is distant
from developed-country markets, and high transport costs place an extra burden on exporters. Labour remained cheaper
than in the 1990s throughout the decade following the 2001-02 maxi-devaluation, but the gains from devaluation had
been lost by 2012 amid high in�ation and sustained real wage growth. Sharp currency adjustments in 2018-19 improved
labour competitiveness, but non-wage labour costs are onerous. Despite two decades of gradual de-industrialisation,
Argentina retains a solid skilled labour base and the capacity to carry out high-level research and development. It will
attract manufacturing investment, but its competitiveness as a global manufacturing centre will lag Asian rivals.
Argentina has a strong comparative advantage in agriculture, although, as a commodity producer, it will face more
volatile terms of trade than Asian competitors, meaning that growth is likely to be uneven.
Demographic trends: Argentina shares demographic and cultural features with Europe. The average age of the
population is higher than in most of the rest of the region, and we expect population growth in both percentage and
absolute terms to be slightly below the Latin American average. We expect population growth of 0.6% per year in
2022-50, slightly less than half the average in 1980-2000. At present the working-age population is growing faster than
the overall population, but we expect this trend to change in the late 2030s. Although the share of the working-age
population will continue to rise gradually towards OECD levels, from an estimated 64% in 2021, growth in the labour
force will be modest. The contribution of labour to GDP will therefore weaken, particularly towards the end of the long-
term forecast period.
The population in Argentina is more urbanised and has better healthcare than in other Latin American countries,
leading to life expectancy of about 77 years, which is similar to that of many developed countries. Given the existence of
the welfare state and the severe weakening of the �nances of the state and private pensions systems in the past two

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decades, the growing elderly population will put increasing strains on the public �nances.
External conditions: Growth-determining factors exogenous to Argentina will include the level of developed-country
interest rates (in the past this has been strongly correlated with the volume of capital �ows into Latin America and has
had a major impact on growth) and commodity prices. Argentina will remain highly dependent on income from exports
of agricultural commodities to provide an investible surplus for deployment elsewhere in the economy. Argentina's
reputation as a chronic defaulter will also impede crossborder capital �ows, forcing reliance on �nancing from the
shallow, more expensive domestic market.

Institutional weaknesses will constrain growth

Institutions and policy trends: Shortcomings in policymaking and institutions have led indirectly to disappointing
economic outcomes. Argentina scores moderately to poorly on measures of corruption, security and the rule of law. Our
analysis suggests that an improvement in the overall institutional climate would have a signi�cant impact on long-term
growth, but this is unlikely to materialise in the short term. Repeated exposure to political and economic crises has
resulted in the delegation of sweeping powers to the executive branch. As a result, policymaking will remain strongly
in�uenced by the personal governing style of whoever is president. Judicial mechanisms to check presidential overreach
are in place but are typically perceived as slow, ine�cient and prone to political pressures. Although the current
president, Alberto Fernández, has sought to brand himself as a moderate, he has often criticised judicial proceedings and
politicised appointments to federal agencies, revealing a weak commitment to institutions.
Long-term performance: We forecast that average annual GDP will grow by 2.5% in the 2022-50 long-term forecast
period. Our forecasts assume that, as has historically been the case, the contribution of capital to growth will be �rm
throughout those years. We also assume that, as growth in the working-age population slows, the increase in the
availability of labour will also slow, meaning that growth will become more dependent on productivity gains. To the
extent that they are achieved, these gains are likely to be made via technology transfer and higher foreign investment.
Firms will increasingly look beyond national borders in order to achieve economies of scale, which will stimulate
e�ciency gains. Despite this—and even though Argentina's abundant natural resources and relatively strong skills base
represent solid economic potential—the country will struggle to achieve the productivity gains needed to converge with
developed-market income levels. This is particularly the case in view of low levels of domestic investment in research
and development, and we expect limited progress in catching up with developed-country incomes, even in the long-
term forecast period.

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Income and market size

2021 2030 2050

Income and market size

Population (m) 45.6 49.1 54.9

GDP (US$ bn at market exchange rates) 490.4 687.0 1,816.4

GDP per head (US$ at market exchange rates) 10,750 14,010 33,110

Private consumption (US$ bn) 304.6 483.0 1,285.4

Private consumption per head (US$) 6,680 9,850 23,430

GDP (US$ bn at PPP) 1,016.9 1,597.7 3,867.0

GDP per head (US$ at PPP) 22,300 32,570 70,480

Exports of goods & services (US$ bn) 89.6 119.5 335.9

Imports of goods & services (US$ bn) 74.2 122.1 377.2

Memorandum items

GDP per head (at PPP; index, US=100) 32.3 33.3 37.9

Share of world population (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6

Share of world GDP (% at market exchange rates) 0.5 0.5 0.5

Share of world GDP (% at PPP) 0.7 0.7 0.7

Share of world exports of goods & services (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3

Automotive
Argentina | Automotive | Overview

June 24th 2022

• Argentina's automotive industry has shrunk dramatically since the boom years of 2003-13 amid an economic recession
and weak demand from Brazil. Vehicle sales were fairly weak even before the coronavirus crisis. Argentina has recorded
the second-highest number of covid-19 cases in Latin America since the pandemic began.
• Recovery from a protracted recession in 2018-20 will not be a quick process. EIU expects Argentina's real GDP growth to
be constrained this year by the macroeconomic consolidation measures needed to unwind its signi�cant �scal
imbalances. The medium-term outlook will also be dampened by investor concerns about contract rights and the rule of
law. Accordingly, new-vehicle sales will rebound only slowly in our 2022-26 forecast period.
• New-car sales will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 2%. Meanwhile, commercial vehicle (CV)
sales will fall marginally, re�ecting broad macroeconomic instability and the high base of comparison in 2021.
• Virtually all of Argentina's exports of vehicles and auto parts are sold in Brazil. Domestic automotive output fell by 18%
in unit terms in 2020, but a recovery in demand both at home and in Brazil meant that the country's output of cars and
light CVs jumped by 69% year on year in 2021 (skewed by the low base of comparison), according to the International
Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA).
• Government intervention and elevated in�ation will continue to deter investment in the automotive sector. However,

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Argentina may bene�t from regional restructuring; for example, Ford (US) announced plans to close its Brazilian
operations and invest US$580m in its Pacheco plant in Argentina. A new Investment Promotion Law that was introduced
in April 2021 may support investment in manufacturing.

Consumer goods
Argentina | Consumer goods | Overview

October 20th 2022

• Argentina has the seventh-largest retail market in Latin America. However, retail sales in US dollar terms, which
measured US$115.8bn in 2011, have eroded over the past decade, to an estimated US$35bn in 2021. In peso terms, sales
growth averaged more than 20% per year in 2011-21, but this re�ects high in�ation and peso depreciation (the currency
weakened from Ps1:US$4 to Ps1:US$126 over that period).
• In October 2022 the IMF Executive Board approved the second review of Argentina's extended fund facility (EFF)
arrangement, paving the way for an immediate disbursement of US$3.8bn under the country's 30-month,
US$44bn programme. This will provide economic stability and underpin a moderate recovery in the 2022-26 forecast
period. EIU estimates that real GDP will grow by 5% in 2022 but contract by 1% in 2023 amid continued high in�ation
and against a challenging global economic backdrop.
• The coronavirus pandemic had a signi�cant impact on the retail sector and on the broader economy. Retail sales
volumes rose in 2021, but this was mainly driven by base e�ects. We expect retail sales volumes to contract in 2022-23,
owing to high prices of food and utilities. The pandemic spurred growth in online sales; expansion in that segment will
far outpace growth in overall retail sales in the 2022-26 forecast period.
• Consumer price in�ation has soared to a 20-year high; it reached 83% in September 2022 and is likely to surpass 100% by
the end of the year. The Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA, the central bank) has been tightening monetary
policy to support the peso and control in�ation, nearly doubling the benchmark policy rate from 38% at end-2021 to 75%
in September. This will suppress consumer credit demand and curb bank lending but will also delay purchases of big-
ticket items.

Energy
Argentina | Energy | Overview

September 30th 2022

• Argentina remains one of the region's largest producers of oil and natural gas. According to the BP Statistical Review of
World Energy 2021, it held total proven reserves of 2.5bn barrels of crude oil and 13.6trn cu ft of gas at the end of 2020,
placing it in the region's top three reserve holders in both categories. Coal makes up a negligible share of the energy mix;
the country does not have substantial reserves of the mineral.
• Alberto Fernández of the centre-left Frente de Todos Peronist coalition took o�ce as president in December 2019. During
his administration, energy policies have shifted away from the free-market approach of his predecessor, Mauricio Macri
(2015-19), increasing subsidies on energy products, freezing tari�s and ordering the intervention of the electricity and
gas regulators, among others.
• We estimate that Argentina's energy consumption grew by 6.3% in 2021, as the country recovered from the coronavirus
pandemic. Consumption will continue growing in 2022, but at a lower rate of 3.5% as economic growth eases. We
forecast that energy demand will increase at an annual average of 1.6% over the 2022-31 forecast period. Consumption of
natural gas (which accounts for the largest share of the country's energy mix) increased by 7.8% in 2021, and that of
petroleum products by 3.7% as demand rebounded amid increased economic activity. We estimate that gas and oil
demand will expand by an estimated 3.5% and 2.7% respectively in 2022.

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Energy: key indicators

2020a 2021b 2022c 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2031c

GDP (US$ bn at market exchange rates) 386 487a 607 592 618 652 674 893

Real GDP (% change, year on year) -9.9 10.4a 4.6 0.0 2.2 2.8 3.2 2.2

Population (m) 45.0b 45.3 45.5 45.8 46.1 46.3 46.6 47.9

Population (% change, year on year) 0.6b 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

Gross domestic energy consumption (ktoe) 73,972 78,775 81,541 82,999 84,334 85,593 86,830 91,917

Gross domestic energy consumption (% change, year on year) -6.9 6.5 3.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1

Note. Forecasts for all dates are available via EIU's data tool.

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Sources: EIU; © OECD/IEA 2018 IEA statistics, www.iea.org/statistics, licence: www.iea.org/t&c.

Financial services
Argentina | Finance | Overview | Financial services | Overview

June 28th 2022

• Argentina's �nancial system remains underdeveloped compared with its Latin American counterparts and with
emerging markets more broadly. The sector is recovering slowly from the double crisis caused by the coronavirus
pandemic and the country's international sovereign debt default in May 2020. Although a new deal with the IMF,
reached in March 2022, will be supportive, the banking sector still faces economic uncertainty, high in�ation and poor
pro�tability.
• Stress on the banking sector has eased moderately, thanks to a stronger-than-anticipated post-coronavirus recovery and
better �nancing and liquidity indicators. However, the operating environment remains highly challenging, given
elevated uncertainties in the global economy and continued domestic economic weakness. On the positive side, the
level of bad debts is gradually falling and banks are well capitalised, which should minimise the risk of a banking crisis.
• In�ation has spiked dramatically since the start of 2022; amid high commodity prices and pending policy adjustments,
we expect it to accelerate to 71.5% by end-2022 (from 51% at end-2021). Our baseline forecast, which rests on a successful
IMF consolidation programme, is that in�ation will ease more markedly from 2023. However, considering the low public
con�dence in monetary policymaking, and how damaging this is to price expectations, we expect consumer price
in�ation to remain above 20% throughout the 2022-26 forecast period.
• Real GDP bounced back strongly in 2021, growing by 10.4%. We expect real GDP to expand by 4.3% in 2022 but then to
moderate during the rest of the forecast period (as low base e�ects cease to be a factor) and to average 2.1% in 2023-26.
Much depends on the success of the implementation of the IMF agreement and the government of Alberto Fernández,
the president, maintaining a broadly centrist path that helps to restore business con�dence.
• With an estimated population of 45.6m in 2021, high per-head incomes compared with much of Latin America and a low
level of private-sector credit as a percentage of GDP, Argentina has—in theory—scope for substantial growth in its
�nancial sector in the medium term. However, this will depend on an easing of economic volatility.
• The �nancial sector is currently small; the industry as a whole—under the category "�nancial intermediation"
—accounted for 2.7% of GDP in 2021, according to the national statistics institute. This is below the 3.2% recorded in
2011. The industry employs about 155,200 workers, or 2.5% of the registered labour force, little changed over the past

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decade, according to the Ministry of Labour.

• Banks' capital bu�ers and provision proved adequate during the coronavirus crisis. However, bank pro�ts have been hit
hard with pro�tability ratios deteriorating dramatically. After having stagnated at 30-35% for most of the year, nominal
credit growth accelerated to 41% by end-2021. This did not prevent the total stock of credit from shrinking in real terms
(given year-end in�ation of 51%). The uptick in credit growth was driven by the economic reopening (which lifted
demand for both consumer loans and working capital), as well as government support measures (such as subsidised
credit lines for businesses). However, in early 2022 the credit recovery stalled again, as banks returned to risk-o� mode.
• The population's use of formal �nancial services has deepened during the pandemic and lockdown, not least because
recipients had to set up accounts to receive social assistance. Financial technology (�ntech) �rms have attracted
numerous customers in Argentina in recent years. Only a small minority of the population taps insurance, investment
and brokerage services.

Healthcare
Argentina | Healthcare | Spending

October 27th 2022

Overview
• As in all countries, the healthcare sector in Argentina will remain under signi�cant strain in the near term as a result of
the covid-19 pandemic as well as soaring in�ation. The government put in place some of the most stringent
containment measures in the world in response to the outbreak in March 2020, which exacted a severe toll on the
economy. Real GDP contracted by 9.9% in 2020 but rebounded by a strong 10.4% in 2021. At the end of 2021 the economy
was 5% above its pre-pandemic level of activity. EIU forecasts that growth will moderate from 2022, averaging 2.4%
during the 2022-26 forecast period.
• The measures were insu�cient to curb the spread of the virus, with the number of new cases rising in October 2020 and
May 2021, and a huge peak in January 2022 with the arrival of the Omicron variant. As at October 2022 new infections
had eased substantially and 109.6m vaccine doses had been administered, according to data from the World Health
Organisation (WHO).

• Prospects for healthcare spending were hampered by the fact that the underlying economy was already in a critical state
before the pandemic hit. However, Argentina recently signed the National Plan for Health (2021-24), which is expected to
improve primary care and access to the healthcare system.
• We estimate that healthcare spending rose from 9.5% of GDP in 2019 to 9.8% of GDP in 2020 but contracted by about 8%
year on year in real terms. As a percentage of GDP, we expect healthcare spending to edge down from an estimated 9.7%
in 2021 to 9.6% for the remainder of the forecast period.
• Fiscal pressures may also limit the government's plans to expand public coverage of the cost of medicines. The
president, Alberto Fernández, had indicated that he wanted to revive Plan Remediar, a scheme providing medicines for
the poor that was suspended in 2017, but in 2020 plan was relaunched o�ering 14,000 aid kits that aimed to reach more

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than 15m people.

• During the forecast period we expect total current health expenditure to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of about 60% in nominal, local-currency terms. However, with in�ation forecast to average 73.5% by the end of 2022,
spending growth will be low in real terms. Health spending in US dollar terms, at a CAGR of about 8.4%, is forecast to
grow much more weakly than in local-currency terms, re�ecting ongoing peso depreciation.
• Pharmaceutical sales are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 62.7% in local-currency terms in 2022-26. Growth will be higher
early on in the forecast period, re�ecting high levels of in�ation. Currency weakness will put upward pressure on prices
of imported pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) needed to produce medicines.
Funding sources
• According to the WHO, public health expenditure accounted for 62.4% (latest data available) of total current healthcare
spending in Argentina in 2019. This was down from 66.7% in 2015, which is likely to re�ect �scal constraints.
• The insured population is covered through the obras sociales (a pay-as-you-go system based on compulsory payments
by employers and employees), private healthcare insurance, prepay private insurance (voluntary contributions for
supplementary coverage) or the Programa de Atención Médica Integral (the healthcare system for retirees). These are
administered by trade unions or professional organisations.
• Those without insurance, including the increasing number of unemployed people, are covered by tax-funded public
health schemes, notably the Cobertura Universal de Salud (CUS). The CUS is designed to bene�t as many as 15m people;
it has been enhanced in recent years with more regular check-ups, subsidised medication and improved record-keeping.

Healthcare: key indicators

2017a 2018b 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022c 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c

Life expectancy, average (years) 76.0 76.1a 76.3a 76.4a 76.6 76.7 76.9 77.0 77.2 77.3

Life expectancy, male (years) 72.5 72.7a 72.8a 73.0a 73.2 73.3 73.5 73.7 73.8 74.0

Life expectancy, female (years) 79.3 79.5a 79.6a 79.8a 79.9 80.0 80.2 80.3 80.4 80.5

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live

births) 10.3 10.1a 9.9a 9.8a 9.6 9.4 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6

Healthcare spending (Ps bn) 1,111.6b 1,423.3 2,046.7 2,678.6 4,463.3 7,988.4 15,431.2 24,595.5 35,172.0 47,405.7

Healthcare spending (% of GDP) 10.4b 9.7 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6

Healthcare spending (US$ bn) 67.1b 50.7 42.5 38.0 47.0 60.9 63.0 66.2 67.8 70.2

Healthcare spending (US$ per head) 1,523b 1,141 950 843 1,038 1,339 1,376 1,437 1,463 1,506

Healthcare (consumer expenditure;

US$ bn) 28.0b 24.7 20.2 17.6 21.3 29.0 30.8 33.3 35.1 37.1

Doctors (per 1,000 people) 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5

Hospital beds (per 1,000 people) 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Sources: World Bank health expenditure series, World Health Organisation; US Bureau of Census; UN; EIU.

• There has been speculation that the government may be considering a structural reform of the healthcare system. The
authorities have been talking about the need to integrate various healthcare providers (state providers, private providers
and obras sociales) under a Sistema Nacional Integrado de Salud Argentino (SNISA), which it hopes will facilitate
e�ciency savings. The government has been holding preliminary talks with stakeholders, but there remains signi�cant

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resistance, including from labour unions that fear that these plans would erode bene�ts and increase workers'
contributions to healthcare plans.
Private health insurance
• Private expenditure accounted for 37% of healthcare spending in 2019, according to WHO data. Around two-thirds of this
are out-of-pocket expenditure, with a comparatively small share representing prepaid plans.
• There were about 1.3m healthcare policy holders in the third quarter of 2019, but that number was down from about 1.6m
in 2016, as high in�ation and unemployment had eroded demand. We do not expect employment and consumer
purchasing power to recover signi�cantly until the end of the forecast period, which will keep growth in private health
insurance subdued.

Telecommunications
Argentina | Telecommunications | Overview

September 23rd 2022

• The administration led by the president, Alberto Fernández of the left-wing Frente de Todos (FdT) Peronist coalition, will
continue to push for increased state control over the telecommunications sector.
• These e�orts will take place amid mounting political and economic turbulence. Mr Fernández is struggling to deal with
divisions within the government that centre on a controversial IMF extended fund facility (EFF) lending deal, which is
crucial in avoiding a new economic crisis but which is unpopular politically. Against this backdrop, risks to
governability and stability will rise.
• EIU has consistently highlighted the risk that the IMF or the government pulls the plug on the EFF, and this risk is rising.
A recent reshu�e in the economy ministry suggests that there is more pressure to spend and a higher chance of
Argentina missing important IMF targets. We still have IMF funds pencilled into our forecasts for now, but risks of a
currency crisis are growing.
• As a result, a lack of con�dence in government policy, mounting economic uncertainty, price and currency distortions,
and rising corporate borrowing costs will all weigh on private investment. In order to raise capital for future investments
and reduce debt burdens, telecoms operators are exploring options to monetise infrastructure assets such as mobile
towers.
• We estimate that mobile subscriptions recovered in 2021, following a pandemic-driven dip in 2020. A combination of
economic recovery and improvements in service quality and network coverage will enable annual average growth of
2.4% in mobile subscriptions in the 2022-26 forecast period.
• The Ente Nacional de Comunicaciones (Enacom, the telecoms regulator) launched a public consultation in August 2021
on draft regulations for management of spectrum. Although it stops short of providing a national framework for 5G, the
consultation will cover the allocation of frequencies via tenders or direct assignments, the creation of a secondary
spectrum market and the sharing of frequency bands, among other areas.
• There has since been some limited development of 5G services. Telecom Argentina intends to extend its 5G network by
activating 170 sites by end-2022. It switched on the country's �rst 5G network using dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS)
technology in February 2021, after activating ten antennas in Buenos Aires (the capital) and Rosario (Argentina's third-
largest city).
• Unlike some countries in Europe and North America that have banned 5G equipment from Huawei (China) owing to
perceived threats to national security, Argentina is open to support from the �rm. The government will attempt to
strengthen trade and diplomatic relations with China, with a view to securing �nance.

Data and charts: Annual trends charts

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Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Annual trends charts

November 9th 2022

Data and charts: Quarterly trends charts

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Quarterly trends charts

November 9th 2022

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Data and charts: Monthly trends charts

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Monthly trends charts

November 9th 2022

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Political structure
Argentina | Summary | Political structure

November 9th 2022

Official name
Republic of Argentina

Form of state
Federal republic

The executive
The president, who serves as head of state and commander in chief of the armed forces, is elected for a four-year term
and can be re-elected for one consecutive term. The president appoints a cabinet and a chief of cabinet, who can be
removed by a majority vote in each chamber

National legislature
Bicameral Congress: 257-member Chamber of Deputies (the lower house), directly elected for a four-year term (half of

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the lower house stands for re-election every two years); 72-member Senate (the upper house), directly elected for a six-
year term; three senators are elected per province, two from the leading party and one from the runner-up; one-third of
the upper house stands for re-election every two years

Regional legislatures
There are 23 provinces plus an autonomous federal district

Legal system
Federal judges appointed by a Council of the Magistracy; Supreme Court system both nationally and in the provinces;
national Supreme Court members require the endorsement of two-thirds of the upper house

National elections
The last legislative election (for half of the lower house and a third of the upper house) was on November 14th 2021, and
the last presidential election was on October 27th 2019. The next general election (legislative and presidential elections)
will be in October 2023

National government
Alberto Fernández of the left-wing Frente de Todos (FdT) Peronist coalition took o�ce as president for a four-year term,
beginning on December 10th 2019

Main political organisations

Government: FdT coalition, which includes several parties, the largest of which is the Partido Justicialista (PJ, the
Peronist party)
Main opposition: Juntos por el Cambio alliance (formerly known as Cambiemos), which includes Propuesta Republicana
(Pro); Unión Cívica Radical (UCR); Coalición Cívica (CC)

Key ministers
President: Alberto Fernández
Vice-president: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Cabinet chief: Juan Manzur
Agriculture: Juan José Bahillo
Defence: Jorge Taiana
Economy: Sergio Tomás Massa
Education: Jaime Perczyk
Foreign a�airs: Santiago Ca�ero
Health: Carla Vizzotti
Interior: Eduardo "Wado" de Pedro
Justice: Martín Soria
Labour: Raquel Olmos
Productive development: José Ignacio de Mendiguren
Public works: Gabriel Katopodis

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Security: Aníbal Fernández

Transport: Alexis Raúl Guerrera

Central bank president

Miguel Ángel Pesce

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | GDP at current market prices

November 21st 2022

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Gross domestic product, at current market prices

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

Expenditure on GDP (Ps bn at current market prices)

GDP 14,719.1 21,521.3 27,221.3 46,251.6 82,548.0 161,503.8 257,740.5 372,336.6 505,407.2 656,486.3

Private consumption 10,260.3 14,279.1 17,393.6 28,257.0 53,403.7 104,051.7 166,634.3 239,229.0 323,653.7 419,121.0

Government
consumption 2,318.4 3,531.1 4,584.3 7,281.6 12,741.9 24,470.1 36,828.6 50,950.2 65,961.3 82,269.1

Gross fixed investment 2,246.5 3,070.3 3,785.8 7,978.0 15,680.5 30,442.5 51,038.5 76,338.0 106,540.0 141,851.7

Exports of goods &

services 2,120.4 3,855.3 4,522.6 8,311.9 14,270.3 26,630.4 44,601.9 68,019.0 92,612.3 117,073.2

Imports of goods &

services 2,398.9 3,163.1 3,696.1 6,902.3 13,561.6 24,100.9 41,372.9 62,209.7 83,370.1 103,838.8

Stockbuilding 169.7 -26.2 -1.9 135.3 13.2 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1

Domestic demand 14,995.0 20,854.3 25,761.8 43,651.9 81,839.3 158,974.4 254,511.5 366,527.4 496,165.1 643,251.9

Expenditure on GDP (US$ bn at current market prices)

GDP 523.9 447.0 385.9 486.9 630.2 642.6 632.0 626.8 663.5 734.1

Private consumption 365.2 296.6 246.6 297.5 407.7 414.0 408.6 402.7 424.9 468.7

Government
consumption 82.5 73.3 65.0 76.7 97.3 97.4 90.3 85.8 86.6 92.0

Gross fixed investment 80.0 63.8 53.7 84.0 119.7 121.1 125.1 128.5 139.9 158.6

Exports of goods &

services 75.5 80.1 64.1 87.5 108.9 106.0 109.4 114.5 121.6 130.9

Imports of goods &

services 85.4 65.7 52.4 72.7 103.5 95.9 101.4 104.7 109.4 116.1

Stockbuilding 6.0 -0.5 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Domestic demand 533.7 433.1 365.2 459.5 624.8 632.5 624.1 617.0 651.4 719.3

Economic structure (% of GDP at current market prices)

Private consumption 69.7 66.3 63.9 61.1 64.7 64.4 64.7 64.3 64.0 63.8

Government
consumption 15.8 16.4 16.8 15.7 15.4 15.2 14.3 13.7 13.1 12.5

Gross fixed investment 15.3 14.3 13.9 17.2 19.0 18.8 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.6

Stockbuilding 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Exports of goods &

services 14.4 17.9 16.6 18.0 17.3 16.5 17.3 18.3 18.3 17.8

Imports of goods &

services 16.3 14.7 13.6 14.9 16.4 14.9 16.1 16.7 16.5 15.8

Memorandum items

Oil production ('000

b/d) 705 724 656b 702b 775 798 826 867 911 956

National savings ratio

(%) 11.2 13.4 14.7 18.9 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.8

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One-click report : Argentina

December 6th 2022

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | GDP at constant prices

November 21st 2022

Gross domestic product, at constant prices

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

Real expenditure on GDP (Ps bn at constant 2004 prices)

GDP 707.4 693.2 624.3 689.2 724.9 719.1 737.1 758.8 785.5 807.6

Private consumption 526.5 494.2 426.4 469.1 510.2 503.1 523.6 537.9 559.4 578.7

Government consumption 97.0 90.7 89.0 95.3 96.0 93.5 91.8 90.9 90.4 90.1

Gross fixed investment 141.9 119.2 103.8 138.5 155.1 150.5 160.2 165.8 170.8 175.9

Exports of goods & services 147.0 161.3 132.8 145.0 152.7 152.4 163.9 175.6 186.3 195.7

Imports of goods & services 206.0 167.5 136.6 166.6 200.2 189.3 203.5 212.5 222.3 233.4

Domestic demand 766.1 699.4 620.9 705.1 762.3 748.0 776.6 795.7 821.6 845.3

Real expenditure on GDP (% change)

GDP -2.6 -2.0 -9.9 10.4 5.2 -0.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 2.8

Private consumption -2.2 -6.1 -13.7 10.0 8.8 -1.4 4.1 2.7 4.0 3.5

Government consumption -1.9 -6.4 -1.9 7.1 0.7 -2.6 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4

Gross fixed investment -5.7 -16.0 -13.0 33.4 12.0 -3.0 6.5 3.5 3.0 3.0

Exports of goods & services 0.6 9.8 -17.7 9.2 5.3 -0.2 7.6 7.1 6.1 5.1

Imports of goods & services -4.5 -18.7 -18.5 22.0 20.1 -5.4 7.5 4.4 4.6 5.0

Domestic demand -3.7 -8.7 -11.2 13.6 8.1 -1.9 3.8 2.5 3.3 2.9

Real contribution to GDP growth (% points)

Private consumption -1.7 -4.6 -9.8 6.8 6.0 -1.0 2.9 1.9 2.8 2.5

Government consumption -0.3 -0.9 -0.2 1.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

Gross fixed investment -1.2 -3.2 -2.2 5.6 2.4 -0.6 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7

External balance 1.5 7.5 0.3 -2.9 -3.7 1.4 -0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

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Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | GDP by sector of origin

November 21st 2022

Gross domestic product by sector of origin

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

Origin of GDP (Ps bn at constant 2004 prices)

GDP at factor cost 588.5 579.0 521.4 573.5 603.2 598.3 613.3 631.4 653.6 671.9

Agriculture 46.4 56.4 52.0 52.4 50.8 51.3 52.9 55.1 57.0 58.6

Industry 171.3 163.2 148.1 170.7 180.9 180.2 185.3 191.2 198.5 204.0

Services 370.8 359.5 321.3 350.4 371.5 366.8 375.2 385.1 398.2 409.3

Origin of GDP (real % change)

Agriculture -14.6 21.4 -7.7 0.7 -3.2 1.0 3.1 4.2 3.5 2.8

Industry -3.0 -4.7 -9.3 15.3 6.0 -0.4 2.8 3.2 3.8 2.8

Services -0.8 -3.1 -10.6 9.0 6.0 -1.3 2.3 2.6 3.4 2.8

Origin of GDP (% of factor cost GDP)

Agriculture 7.9 9.7 10.0 9.1 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7

Industry 29.1 28.2 28.4 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4

Services 63.0 62.1 61.6 61.1 61.6 61.3 61.2 61.0 60.9 60.9

Memorandum item

Industrial production (% change) -5.0 -6.3 -7.5 15.8 5.7 -1.0 3.1 3.5 4.3 3.3

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Growth and productivity

November 21st 2022

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Growth and productivity

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022a 2023b 2024b 2025b 2026b 2027b

Growth and productivity (%)

Labour productivity growth -4.1 -4.4 -0.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.9 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.4

Total factor productivity growth -4.1 -3.3 -3.2 2.2 0.2 -1.5 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.9

Growth of capital stock 1.4 -0.9 -2.3 1.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7

Growth of potential GDP -2.0 -1.5 -8.9 8.2 3.9 0.0 2.1 2.5 3.4 2.6

Growth of real GDP -2.6c -2.0c -9.9c 10.4c 5.2 -0.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 2.8

Growth of real GDP per head -3.4 -2.7 -10.5 9.8 4.6 -1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.2

a EIU estimates. b EIU forecasts. c Actual.

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables |
Economic structure, income and market size

November 21st 2022

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Economic structure, income and market size

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022a 2023b 2024b 2025b 2026b 2027b

Population, income and market size

Population (m) 44.4 44.7 45.0 45.3 45.5 45.8 46.1 46.3 46.6 46.9

GDP (US$ bn at market

exchange rates) 523.9c 447.0c 385.9c 486.9c 630.2 642.6 632.0 626.8 663.5 734.1

GDP per head (US$ at

market exchange rates) 11,796 9,989 8,569 10,754 13,847 14,038 13,721 13,527 14,234 15,657

Private consumption
(US$ bn) 365.2c 296.6c 246.6c 297.5c 407.7 414.0 408.6 402.7 424.9 468.7

Private consumption
per head (US$) 8,223 6,628 5,475 6,570 8,958 9,044 8,871 8,691 9,115 9,996

GDP (US$ bn at PPP) 973.8c 971.4c 885.4c 1,018.1c 1,141.5 1,173.1 1,226.5 1,284.1 1,358.6 1,426.0

GDP per head (US$ at

PPP) 21,927 21,710 19,659 22,485 25,081 25,627 26,629 27,711 29,145 30,414

Personal disposable
income (Ps bn) 11,032.5 15,353.8 18,702.8 30,383.8 57,134.3 112,252.2 184,851.3 267,705.2 356,260.6 448,948.8

Personal disposable
income (US$ bn) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Growth of real
disposable income (%) -2.2 -6.1 -13.7 10.0 8.2 -0.6 7.0 3.6 2.3 0.7

Memorandum items

Share of world
population (%) 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58

Share of world GDP (%;

market exchange rates) 0.61c 0.52c 0.46c 0.51c 0.64 0.62 0.57 0.53 0.55 0.57

Share of world GDP (%;

PPP) 0.76c 0.73c 0.67c 0.70c 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.71 0.71

Share of world exports

of goods (%) 0.33c 0.35c 0.32c 0.36c 0.37 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.35 0.35

a EIU estimates. b EIU forecasts. c Actual.

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Fiscal indicators

November 21st 2022

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Fiscal indicators

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

Government expenditure 22.6 22.1 26.2 22.8 22.6 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.5

Interest 2.6 3.4 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.2

Non-interest 20.0 18.7 24.2 21.3 21.0 20.4 19.9 19.5 19.5 19.3

Government revenue 17.7 18.3 17.8 19.2 18.2 18.2 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.0

Budget balance -4.9 -3.8 -8.4 -3.6 -4.4 -3.8 -2.9 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6

Primary balance -2.3 -0.4 -6.4 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -0.9 0.0 0.5 0.7

Government debt 84.9 89.8 103.6 80.6 85.0 77.6 77.5 74.0 69.0 65.8

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Monetary indicators

November 21st 2022

Monetary indicators

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

Monetary indicators

Exchange rate Ps:US$ (av) 28.09 48.15 70.54 94.99 130.99 251.34 407.84 594.01 761.73 894.29

Exchange rate Ps:US$ (end-period) 37.60 59.79 84.05 102.62 181.59 316.15 511.68 683.44 831.10 963.66

Exchange rate Ps:€ (av) 33.19 53.91 80.51 112.42 146.36 281.50 476.15 723.20 940.74 1,108.92

Exchange rate Ps:€ (end-period) 43.05 67.17 103.14 116.23 200.66 360.42 614.01 837.21 1,030.56 1,194.93

Purchasing power parity Ps:US$ (av) 15.11 22.15 30.75 45.43 72.32 137.68 210.14 289.96 372.02 460.37

Lending rate (av; %) 48.5 67.3 29.4 35.6 50.2 69.5 69.2 52.2 41.0 35.0

Deposit rate (av; %) 31.9 47.3 29.3 33.5 53.4 72.9 61.9 43.1 31.9 25.9

Short-term rate (av; %) 32.3 48.3 29.0 33.3 53.5 73.0 62.0 43.3 32.0 26.0

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Employment, wages and prices

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November 21st 2022

Employment, wages and prices

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

The labour market (av)

Labour force (m) 12.9b 13.4b 12.4b 13.4b 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0

Labour force (% change) 2.5b 3.2b -7.5b 8.6b 4.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

Unemployment rate (%) 9.2 9.8 11.6 8.8 7.0 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.8 6.6

Wage and price inflation (% except labour costs per hour)

Consumer prices (av) 34.3 53.5 42.0 48.4 73.8 97.3 53.3 39.7 30.1 25.2

Consumer prices (year-end) 47.6 53.8 36.1 50.9 103.3 73.9 48.5 34.5 26.8 23.9

Producer prices (av) 52.2 58.2 42.6 58.8 70.6 99.6 56.1 40.9 30.7 25.6

GDP deflator (av) 42.0 49.2 40.5 53.9 69.7 97.2 55.7 40.3 31.1 26.3

Private consumption deflator (av) 47.3 48.3 41.2 47.7 73.8 97.6 53.9 39.7 30.1 25.2

Government consumption deflator (av) 25.7 62.7 32.3 48.3 73.8 97.3 53.3 39.7 30.1 25.2

Fixed investment deflator (av) 47.8 62.6 41.7 57.9 75.5 100.1 57.4 44.5 35.5 29.3

Average nominal wages 25.0 39.3 37.0 43.6 69.2 79.8 55.1 42.4 34.0 28.4

Average real wages -6.9 -9.3 -3.5 -3.2 -2.6 -8.9 1.2 1.9 3.0 2.6

Unit labour costs (Ps-based; av) 30.3b 46.8b 39.2b 46.7b 71.8 82.4 55.6 42.1 32.4 27.6

Unit labour costs (US$-based) -23.2b -14.4b -5.0b 8.9b 24.6 -4.9 -4.1 -2.4 3.3 8.7

Labour costs per hour (Ps) 102.6b 143.0b 196.0b 281.5b 476.3 856.2 1,327.8 1,891.4 2,535.1 3,254.9

Labour costs per hour (US$) 3.7b 3.0b 2.8b 3.0b 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.6

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Current account and terms of trade

November 21st 2022

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Current account and terms of trade

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

Current account (US$ bn)

Current-account balance -27.1 -3.5 3.1 6.7 -3.4 0.6 -3.8 -5.5 -7.3 -6.2

Current-account balance (% of GDP) -5.2 -0.8 0.8 1.4 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -0.8

Goods: exports fob 61.8 65.2 54.9 78.0 90.8 87.5 88.5 91.0 94.7 99.9

Goods: imports fob -62.5 -46.9 -40.3 -59.3 -78.4 -71.4 -75.8 -78.8 -81.7 -84.8

Trade balance -0.7 18.2 14.6 18.7 12.4 16.1 12.7 12.2 13.0 15.1

Services: credit 15.3 14.8 9.5 9.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 15.8 17.1 19.4

Services: debit -24.3 -19.6 -12.0 -13.1 -20.3 -20.1 -22.6 -24.5 -26.1 -28.5

Services balance -8.9 -4.8 -2.5 -3.6 -6.8 -5.7 -7.4 -8.7 -9.1 -9.1

Primary income: credit 6.3 6.3 4.0 2.5 2.7 3.2 4.8 6.1 6.0 6.4

Primary income: debit -24.9 -24.1 -14.2 -12.3 -13.5 -14.7 -15.6 -16.6 -18.9 -20.4

Primary income balance -18.7 -17.7 -10.1 -9.8 -10.8 -11.5 -10.8 -10.5 -12.8 -14.0

Secondary income: credit 3.0 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.7

Secondary income: debit -1.7 -1.7 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.9

Secondary income balance 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8

Memorandum item

Export market growth (%) 3.6b -0.9b -6.9b 16.6b 4.9 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | Foreign direct investment

November 21st 2022

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Foreign direct investment

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

Foreign direct investment (US$ bn)

Inward direct investment 11.7 6.6 4.7 6.8 12.5 8.0 10.2 12.0 12.8 12.8

Inward direct investment (% of GDP) 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7

Inward direct investment (% of gross fixed

investment) 14.7 10.4 8.8 8.1 10.4 6.6 8.2 9.3 9.2 8.1

Outward direct investment -1.7 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8

Net foreign direct investment 10.0 5.1 3.4 5.4 10.9 6.6 8.6 10.3 11.1 11.0

Stock of foreign direct investment 72.6 70.5 85.4 99.9 112.4 120.4 130.6 142.6 155.4 168.2

Stock of foreign direct investment per head (US$) 1,634 1,575 1,896 2,206 2,469 2,630 2,835 3,077 3,333 3,587

Stock of foreign direct investment (% of GDP) 13.9 15.8 22.1 20.5 17.8 18.7 20.7 22.7 23.4 22.9

Memorandum items

Share of world inward direct investment flows (%) 2.93 0.56 0.41 0.53 0.89 0.55 0.68 0.77 0.79 0.76

Share of world inward direct investment stock (%) 0.23 0.21 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.34

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

Data summary: External debt

Argentina | Economy | Charts and tables | External debt

November 21st 2022

External debt

2018a 2019a 2020a 2021b 2022b 2023c 2024c 2025c 2026c 2027c

External debt

Total external debt (US$ bn) 277.8 281.7 253.8 261.2 272.4 283.2 289.9 293.2 298.2 301.3

Total external debt (% of GDP) 53.0 63.0 65.8 53.6 43.2 44.1 45.9 46.8 44.9 41.0

Debt/exports ratio (%) 331 324 367 288 253 268 265 258 252 238

Debt-service ratio, paid (%) 51.2 50.5 40.7 18.9 28.9 35.0 23.5 24.7 24.8 25.8

a Actual. b EIU estimates. c EIU forecasts.

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