Script 1
Script 1
It could be that PSC may not be able to continue its business in S-land anymore
So, it may have to sell its business setups there
And this liquidation might be at a disadvantaged prices
The financial position might be hurt as PSC may need to downsize its operations rapidly
Its operations may also get the support from S-Land facilities
So, a renegotiation might result in this support to be withdrawn and PSC may not find an
immediate alternative
It may not be able to recover the credits given to the debtors/ receivables based in S-Land
The exchange rate between PFX and SFX might deteriorate such that SFX depreciates in values
So, if PSC has a net income being generated from S-Land, its net income will be hurt while
remitting back to P-Land
So, on an average, PSC might get lower returns generated from its business in S-Land
However, the currency movement depends on which country has more influence to the world’s
economy
If S-Land has more influence, SFX might be expected to appreciate in relation to PFX
In that case, PSC might have to buy its fuels (needed to run its transport cargo ships) at a higher
price
Also, if PFX depreciates in value with respect to SFX and if PSC imports most of its products in
SFX, PSC might need to import its necessities at a higher import price
The shipping transaction might be restricted through higher port barriers like tariff
Also, it could restrict which products PSC can actually transport.
If SFX appreciates with respect to PFX, PSC will be able to get more net incomes while being
remitted to P-Lans/ translated in PFX.
PSC would see that a lot of cheaper alternatives emerge because of these new trading
restrictions
It could be that some other countries have bad relationship with S-Land governments and so P-
Land government might be forming better ties with these countries
So, new markets might develop and PSC might be the one who will get the first mover
advantage in that respect
However, if SFX depreciates because of the world’s perception that S-Land is trying to run its
economy on a standalone basis and should not be expected to influence the world economy in
future, PSC would be able to get fuel at a lower price
So, a depreciation in SFX would give PSC an import advantage
Also it could be that P-Land and S-Land will be liberalizing the trading agreements in other fronts
Depending on whether this happens, this might give PSC an upper hand if it has a business
expansion plan in other areas of business.
PlainSailingCargo (PSC) may not have the expertise to generate all possible scenarios emerging
from the trading renegotiations
So, hiring a consultancy firm would result in better scenario generation and analysis
The consultancy forms might already have had experience in dealing with such projects with
other similar firms in similar situations
Also, the consultancy form might have had economists and financial analysts who will be able to
track world economies and exchange rate movement better than PSC
So, PSC will be able to tap into these expertise and experience of the consultancy firm
PSC will be able to focus on its core business
PSC will not need to do any in-house analysis which might be influenced by bias
Disadvantages:
PSC is operating a very niche type of business (e.g., shipping) which has a very specific category
of risks and so the risk profile could be very different
So, the consultancy firm may not be able to understand the risk profiles and business lpans well
So, the result of the consultancy might not be accurate
Will be a costly option
PSC will need time to locate an experienced consultancy firm
Will also need to share the confidential business plans
Will also need to employ staff to understand how the consultancy firm works
Direct currency exposures would be impacting the remittances being sent from S-Land in future
years
In that case, PlainSailingCargo (PSC) can go for currency derivatives (e.g., currency options,
futures, forwards, and swaps) to hedge exchange rate exposures on its future SFX cash-flows
from the business from S-Land
While currency options will protect from PSC from a downside movement in SFX, it will protect
the upside
However, it will be more expensive for PSC
Also, to minimize the number of derivative contracts, PSC could be watching carefully when its
revenues and expenses in SFX are going to take place
So, it can go for cash-flow matching in SFX
This would be resulting in a netting impact
Also, it can resort to leading and lagging of cash-flows such that it can sometimes remit back
cash-flows earlier and sometimes later
This will also minimize the number of derivative contracts
PSC can see how the currency movement will affect its other export and import businesses (e.g.,
fuel price)
So, it can likewise enter into derivative contracts in those particular commodities
In most cases, forward contracts with an investment bank can be entered
PSC can see if PlainBank can offer such contracts
Counterparty risks:
o PSC will be exposed to PlainBank in that PlainBank may not honor the contracts in time
o This can be minimized if there is a central clearing house who will act as a counterparty
for all forward transactions between PlainBank and PSC
o PSC could enter into contracts with multiple counterparties
Settlement risk
o The settlement from PlainBank might fail on the settlement date
o PSC could go for early warnings to PlainBank on the day of settlement
o It could notify PlainBank beforehand
o Or it could introduce a penalty on PlanBank in case of failing a settlement
Liquidity risk
o If the forward contracts are traded, these might be illiquid when PSC need to sell them
o PSC could enter into contracts with multiple counterparties
o Also PSC could enter into futures contracts so that it can exit through more liquid future
contracts in future
o However, in that case, it will lose the customization that PlainBank might be offering it
through different forward contracts
Aggregation risk
o PSC is entering contracts for all currencies; so, aggregation might not be appropriate
o PSC can hire consultants or risk experts who can aggregate the risk exposures posed by
these different contracts
Concentration risk
o PSC could be overly entering contracts which are not needed
o PSC can hire risk experts who will set trading and exposure limits on each currency such
that PSC’s employees will not enter into unwanted currency derivative contracts
Legal risk
o The contracts might be prepared in shallow forms such that future litigations might arise
o Also, PSC might be violating certain local regulations
o This can be avoided if PSC follows globally accepted derivative agreements like advised
by ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) contracts
Reputational risk
o PSC might be running the risk of breaching derivative guidelines and might be exposed
to more earnings volatility, leading to poor stakeholder management
o A limit on currency contracts would minimize this risk
Regulatory risk
o PSC would be running the risk of violating regulatory limits and constraints
o A strong compliance and risk management team who will oversee the daily derivative
positions and number of contracts will minimize this risk
Operational risk
o Operational risk might emerge from inadequate people, processes, and system, and also
from external events concerning the currency movements
o Details operational risk management policies, guidelines, procedures, methodologies,
and models would help PSC minimize this risk
(vi) Benefits of own risk function in structuring and overseeing the derivative contracts
Will be able to understand any hidden diversification benefits posed by other areas of business
Will be cost effective
The risk management team might already have the expertise and the team to manage such risks
So, managing the contracts will not be an added burden
Also, the risk function will be better able to understand the business rationale
So, entering the contracts for the sake of entering the contracts will not be there
Also, the risk management function will have the objective of having a higher risk-adjusted
return
So, this objective will lead to minimal contracts needed for hedging currency risks in a sufficient
manner so that the purpose of minimal currency volatility and stable returns is served well
Q.2
o Equity investments are exposed in general to market movements in the equity prices
o In this case, the likelihood of a market contagion is more likely than ever evidenced by
the more recent market crash incidents
o Corporate property investments are mostly illiquid and so are mostly influenced by
broad market and economic movements
o It can be assumed that property investments offer real returns
o However, this argument cannot be validated always
o Property investments might face severe economic stagnation in future out of any
market crash
Possible diversification:
o In the liability side, life insurance and critical illness products may be assumed to be
more positively correlated. However, this depends on the product benefits.
o The savings products can be assumed to be less correlated as it is mostly exposed to
market and interest rate risk
o In the asset side, corporate bond, equity, and property returns should be less correlated
in normal market conditions
o However, if the market moves in an extreme way, these relationships will break-down
and the correlations between different investments may rise.
o Also, these higher returns from different segments would result in a positive correlation
in between certain asset classes. For example, equity and property price indices have
both risen by a significant %.
o So, they tend to be more correlated in case of significant market movements.
o Now, certain risk exposure movements can be calculated
o First, the overall interest rate movement can be determined from the inflation rate
movement and the credit spread movement
o The inflation rate has been higher than the target by 50 basis points
o On the other hand, the credit spread has gone down on an average by 100 basis points
o Assuming that there are no other risks exposures have moved in between, the market
yield rates across all tenors and ratings of corporate bond can be assumed to go down
by 50 basis points
o If LongLife has an average asset duration on its corporate bond portfolio of 10, this 50
basis points downward movement would result in an increase in the market value of its
assets by 5% = 10 times 50 basis points.
o If the corresponding liability duration is only 5, the liability market value would move by
only 2.5%.
o So, on a net basis, LongLife would have a higher available economic capital (which is the
market value of its assets minus the market value of its liabilities) by 2.5%
o However, this all depends on the asset and liability duration profile that LongLife has
o Second, the equity price index rise by 15% should also result in an approximately 15%
increase in LongLife’s equity investment portfolio assuming that LongLife maintains a
passive equity investment portfolio
o So, the market value of equity has arisen by 15% leading to higher available economic
capital
o However, this depends on whether LongLife large blocks of with-profits life insurance
policies where the equity returns will be shared with the policyholders.
o So, any increase in the available capital might be less pronounced
o All these movements will have a favorable movement in the available economic capital
depending on the asset-liability duration, with-profits characteristics
o The impact on required capital might be influenced by how the risk characteristics have
changed in between different risk exposures.
Adverse selection:
o Adverse selection means that if the insurance company had more information about the
policyholders/ customers, the insurance company would not be selling any policy to the
customer or might be selling the policy with a higher premium rate.
o For example, if an insurance company offers the same premium rates for smokers and
non-smokers, it could be that the non-smokers will get policies from other companies
(who differentiate between the premium rates for smokers and non-smokers) at a
cheaper rate and the company might only be having customers from the smokers’
group. So, in this case, the company is adversely selected against the smokers.
Moral hazard:
o This means that the customers behave in a different way (after having an insurance)
from how they would behave if they were exposed to the risk exposures they are now
insured against.
o For example, if a customer has a building insurance and after securing the insurance, if
he behaves in a more casual manner with respect to taking care of his building, this
would be an example of a moral hazard.
o In many cases, this results from an information asymmetry.
Policyholders are not obliged to share the results of their genetic tests
And these genetics tests show that some people are more vulnerable to critical illnesses some
of which are covered by LongLife
So, it could happen that some customer who have recently gone through a genetic test would
be more interested in buying an insurance cover from LongLife if they can see that their tests
reveal that they are more prone to critical illnesses
However, as LongLife cannot force these customers to reveal this information, LongLife would
not be able to charge higher on these customers, leading to an adverse selection risk
It could be that LongLife would be honoring some premium waivers for those customers who
show the genetic tests and the tests reveal that they are not prone to critical illnesses
However, the regulator may not allow this type of premium waivers which would encourage
voluntary submissions of genetic test reports by the less vulnerable people
So, the secondary risk would be a potential regulatory repercussion
LongLife would be able to reprice its existing critical illness product to cater for adverse
selection risks (through building in more buffers in the premium table) and it could apply the
same premium tables for all its customers
However, this would be disadvantageous for the policyholders/ customers who have gone
through a genetic test and have found themselves to be less prone to the critical illnesses
So, there will be a risk of adverse selection being more pronounced and good customers going
away
There could be regulatory implications as the regulator might ask why LongLife has revised the
pricing for its critical illness product and the most extreme response could be not approving the
repriced product.
Using published data on the genetic testing, LongLife can get an idea of how this is correlated
with the critical illness
LongLife can also have an idea of approximately how much of the tested population are prone
to critical illness
LongLife can then hold higher reserves and higher capitals to cover for adverse selection risks in
the light of this new information
This will lead to lower risk adjusted return
ERM also focuses on diversification and the interaction between different risk exposures
So, LongLife will be able to get the benefit of natural hedging and diversification
This will result in lower capital held by LongLife
Also, because of a consistent risk identification, assessment, and measurement, its function
responsibilities will be aligned
So, pricing, reserving, investments, fund transfer, capital and asset allocation, treasury – all of
these functions would go in a coherent and consistent manner
Diagram C would be the most available and most cost-effective option to trade to have a long
position in equity volatility
It shows that for further stock price rises, ActuarInvest will be realizing profit
And it also shows that for a fall in stock price after some threshold, ActuarInvest will also be
realizing profit
So, ActuarInvest is actually implementing a long call plus a long put strategy
In between the strike prices of the two individual positions (e.g., call and put), ActuarInvest is
expecting that the market will be stable and so there will be no need to enter any option within
that range
Diagram C ensures that extreme sharp falls in the equity price from an increased volatility can
be protected against.
Diagram A would also earn the same objective; however, trading call and put options at the
same strike prices might be more costly.
Whether ActuarInvest trading/ investment guidelines support such volatility option trades
Whether there has been any restriction set by the regulator
Whether the current system supports such trades
Whether there have been detailed trading, settlement, monitoring, and position guidelines with
respect to such trades
Whether ActuarInvest can see that other similar companies employ similar options trades
The capacity of the traders, market makers, and the risk managers
The reporting framework – how these volatility options trades will be reported and what would
be the key performance indicators and key risk indicators
A buy-in from the Board/ Top management within ActuarInvest
A legal framework to decide on the contractual terms and conditions
Basis risk – equity volatility is not an observable security; so, depending on what volatility index,
the options will be traded on, there could be significant basis risks.
Taxation advantages
Liquidity and marketability of such options in the market
Historical index price correlation with the fixed income and cash securities – these are important
as ActuarInvest also has 30% assets invested in fixed income and 10% in cash.
(iv) Advantages of having a variable exposure based on the equity market levels
Variable exposure could be obtained by buying more put options at a lower strike price as the
market falls further
So that the return could be augmented further
And as the market price goes up, more put options can be bought at a higher strike price so that
in case of future market fall, this can be protected against
In both cases, the previous put positions can be exited
This variable exposure maintenance would ensure that ActuarInvest will always be protected
against a market fall from its current level
So, any gain until the current market level would be protected
And if until the current market level, ActuarInvest is able to maintain the benefit guarantee
level, it can be well protected to honor such guarantees
Also, trading the options on broad market levels will be more cost effective than stock options
And these options will be more liquid that individual stock options
There could be trackable indices available for entering such contracts and so liquidity and cost
advantage can improve further
Disadvantages:
(v) Incorporating equity volatility risk in the ERM framework including the economic capital model
As soon as the equity volatility becomes a part of ActuarInvest’s ERM framework, it will
influence how ActuarInvest will control its delta, gamma, and vega hedging involving other
options
If ActuarInvest has current option positions involving the underlying stocks, it could be that in
future it may not need to be concerned about periodic vega hedging for these options
This is because vega hedging of stock options would protect the company from increased
volatility of the underlying stocks
And the same objective of getting protection from the increased volatility of the underlying
stocks can be obtained through equity volatility options
So, number of stock option rebalancing to achieve vega hedging might go down
However, vega hedging for individual stock options might still be needed because equity
volatility options would normally be traded against the whole market level
So, there could be significant basis risk as equity volatility options may not be achieving the
individual stock options’ vega hedging
Also, the number of stock derivatives can also go down is ActuarInvest’s risk manager identifies
a potential risk arbitrage opportunity between stock options and equity volatility options
So, depending on the price of the volatility options, this can give ActuarInvest an added
advantage
Also, the trading/ hedging limits might be modified such that some trading is allocated to equity
volatility while reducing the existing limits for stock options
This will be done to achieve the protection of ActuarInvest from running unnecessary and undue
option exposures