Chapter 1: Introduction to Fashion Forecasting

What is fashion forecasting?

● Fashion forecasting: the practice of predicting upcoming trends based on past and present
styles.
● Trend report: account of something that already exists or has happened.
● Fashion forecasting is:
1. The practice of predicting upcoming trends based on past and present style-related
Information.
2. The interpretation and analysis of the motivation behind a trend.
3. An explanation of why the prediction is likely to occur.
● Things fashion forecasters take into account:
1. Acquired knowledge of historical and contemporary fashion and ideas about future
fashion.
2. Observations of the movement and direction of change.
3. Social and cultural shifts in society.
4. Analysis of sales and consumer data.
5. A broad understanding, honed by experience, of the inner workings of a trend.

Terminology of Fashion
● Fashion: that which characterizes or distinguishes the habits, manners, and dress of a period or
group.
● Style: distinctive appearance and combination of unique features that creates a look that is
acceptable at the time by a majority of a group.
● Taste: prevailing opinion of what is or is not appropriate for a particular occasion.
● Trend: first signal of change in general direction or movement.

Why forecast fashion?

● Five elements of business success:
○ Product
○ Time
○ Pace
○ Quantities
○ Customer.
● Trend forecasters: combine knowledge of fashion, history, consumer research, industry data,
and intuition to guide product manufacturers and business professionals.

● Industry professionals trend forecast as part of their jobs:

○ Designers, creative directors, business and retail executives, buyers, product developers,
merchandisers, magazine and book editors, promotional directors, advertising specialists, fashion
design students, fashion merchandising students.

Who Forecasts Fashion?

● Fashion forecasting specialists.
○ Trend spotters, researchers, consultants and fashion forecasting services.
● Some of the most influential fashion forecasting services:
○ Carlin International
○ Doneger Creative Services
○ Fashion Snoops
○ Mudpie
○ Peclers Paris
○ Promostyl
○ Stylesight
○ Tobe Report
○ Trendstop
○ Trend Union
○ WGSN.
● Companies often have in-house forecasters, including: Cotton Incorporated and Pantone, Inc.
● Trendsetters and influencers are observed by forecasters.
○ Film, music, celebrity circles, and politicians.

Where do Forecasters Find Their Information?

● Fashion shows
● Fabric fairs
● Red carpet events
● Club scene
● On the streets
● Fashion media
● The internet
● The past
○ Museum exhibitions.

When do Forecasters Find Fashion Ideas?

● Seasonal fashion events in major cities during the spring and fall.
● Designers may show their products in regional trade.
● Shows or in their own showrooms, often previewing a new collection each month
● All the time on the streets.
● Locations that host major event in politics, music, theater, art, or sports.
● Long-term forecasting – Macro:
○ Trends are predicted at least two years ahead, often five to ten years in advance
○ Identify cultural shifts that represent the mood of the era
○ Positioning business for long-term growth
● Short-term forecasting – Micro:
○ Up to two years in advance clients can immediately use the current information to influence
the creation of new products.
○ Themes or concepts are developed, color stories are created, textile and material selections are
made, the look or silhouettes of fashion are identified, and Details or specific design features are
highlighted.
● Seasonal Forecasting
○ More specific- spring/ summer & fall/winter.
○ 12 to 18 months in advance.

How is Forecasting Done?

● The five processes that are followed to develop a forecast are:
○ Researching
○ Editing
○ Interpreting and Analyzing
○ Predicting
○ Communicating
● Fusion of skills
○ Objective or scientific
■ Sourcing and data collection
■ Analysis of data
■ Interpretation of facts
○ Subjective or artistic
■ Awareness
■ Observation
■ Intuition
■ Memory

Example of a Fashion Forecasting

● A typical forecast includes:
○ Theme
○ Color
○ Textiles and materials
○ Look
Chapter 2: Brief History of Contemporary Fashion
Zeitgeist
● “spirit of the times,” the current state of culture, the expression of the present.
● The mode of an era is determined by a complex mixture of historical, social, psychological,
and aesthetic factors.
Zeitgeist at Work
●Knowledge of both past and current political, social, and cultural trends is needed as a
forecaster begins to examine events to understand directional shifts and the evolution of Fashion.
●Changes in attitudes and lifestyles move fashion forward.
Keys to Successful Forecasting
● Examine the past
● Assess the present
● Predict the future.
1860–1899: Victorian Fashion and Charles Worth
● Important people and events:
○ Queen Victoria
○ French Revolution
○ End of American Civil War and slavery
○ The Gold Rush
○ Charles Fredrick Worth – “Father of Haute Couture”:
■ House of Worth opened in Paris1858
■ Created fashions for his prestigious clients using his own aesthetics instead of following his
client’s ideas.
● Major artistic movements:
○ Realism and Impressionism.
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○ Gone with the Wind, Young Victoria, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and Gangs of New
York.
● Women:
○ Frilly and ornamented.
○ Restricted movement and exaggerated silhouettes: Bustle, corsets, hoops, and multiple
crinolines.
● Men:
○ Formal and rigid
○ Conservative trend: Walking sticks, top hats or derbies, and pocket watches.
Moving Forward:
○ Modernization and mass production developed
○ Communication and transportation improved
○ Women began working outside the home
○ Photography and magazines gave society access to fashion trends
○ Power looms and synthetic dyes modernized textile development
○ Department stores and mail order catalogues provided increasing access
○ New middle class growing
○ European dominance waned and the U.S. gained strength.
1900–1919: Edwardian Period and World War I:
● Important people and events:
○ England: Edwardian Period
■ King Edward VII reigned 1901 – 1910
○ France: La Belle Époque “The Beautiful Age”
○ United States: increase immigration led disparate rich and poor
■ Ford Motor Company’s Model T
■ Wright Brothers first flight
■ World War I (1914–1918)
Major artistic movements:
○ Post-Impressionism, Fauvism, Cubism, and Expressionism
○ Paul Cézanne
○ Vincent Van Gogh
○ Henri Matisse
○ Paul Gauguin
○ Pablo Picasso
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○Kid Auto Races at Venice, A Room with a View and Titanic
● Women:
○ “S”-shaped silhouette “Gibson Girl”
○ Highly ornamented
○ Paul Poiret introduced empire silhouette – corsets were removed
○ Skirts rose to mid ankle
○ Pants were adopted for sports
○ Conservative tailor-mades suits were worn with blouses during the war.
● Men:
○ Began with formal morning coats, striped trousers, and top hats
○ Clothes trended to relaxed tweed and stripes
○ The trench coat and knickers were introduced
Moving Forward
○ More machinery led to increased ready to wear
○ Zipper is invented
○ Scientific and industrial advancements implemented in the manufacturing sector
○ World political power was shifting
○ Haute couture elevated the designer into a role as a creative force dictating fashion and styling
○ Clothing styles worn by actors and actresses were copied by the public
○ A modern type of woman emerged with new outlooks.
1920–1929: Roaring Twenties and the Flapper:
● Important people and events:
○ United States:
■ In 1920, women secured the right to vote with the passing of the 19th amendment.
■ “Flappers” were the name given to women who were free, uninhibited and pleasure-seeking.
○ Prohibition banned the distilling, brewing, and sale of alcoholic beverages.
○ Charles Lindbergh’s first flight across the Atlantic Ocean.
○ Russian czar overthrown in 1917 – communism was established.
○ Italy ruled by Benito Mussolini established a fascist government.
○ Era ended with the stock market crash in 1929.
Art and Entertainment:
○ Art Deco – Erté
○ Surrealism – Salvador Dali
○ Films with sound introduced
○ First commercial radio broadcast
○ Sports were followed
○ Jazz was the music of the era
○ The Charleston was the dance rage
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○The Jazz Singer, Camille, and The Great Gatsby.
Women:
○ Hemlines to above knee allowed for movement.
○ Shapeless chemises were ornamented with fringe and beads.
○ Short hair, dramatic makeup, accessories – long pearls, drop earrings, cloche hat.
○ Coco Chanel introduced jersey knits and the little black dress.
Men:
○ Conventional: sack suits with vests, trousers, and jackets matching in color and fabric.
○ Neckties, bow ties, and ascots.
○ Hair was sleek and pencil-thin mustaches.
○ Sportswear and separates were popularized.
Moving Forward
○ U.S. retailers began to focus on the business of selling fashions
○ Chain stores brought prices down and increased purchasing power
○ Knockoffs were common
○ Ready-to-wear included seasonal collections
○ 1929 Stock Market crash led to abrupt change in society
1930–1945: Great Depression and World War II:
● Important people and events:
○ The Great Depression led to widespread unemployment and an economic crisis in the 1930s.
○ Franklin Roosevelt instituted reform in the U.S.
○ World War II (1939 – 1945) dominated the lives of people world-wide
○ The war led to the creation of jobs and women worked in factories and offices
○ Commuting to the city by car allowed for the expansion of suburban communities
● Art and Entertainment
○ People escaped realities of the depression to attend glamorous Hollywood movies
○ Radio broadcasts increased sports popularity
○ Television broadcasts introduced
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○ Bringing Up Baby. The Grapes of Wrath, Casablanca, The Fountainhead, It’s a Wonderful
Life, Death on the Nile, The Aviator, Atonement and The Notebook
●Women:
○ Daytime fashions for women were conservative suits or ladylike dresses
○ Fabrics were in short supply and rationed
○ Claire McCardell created a simple and practical concept of sportswear with separate blouses,
skirts, and jackets.
■ Silhouette emphasized natural waist
■ Evening dresses long, glamorous, and elegant emulating movie stars
■ Pin ups became popular.
Men:
○ The silhouette for men was influenced by military styling – pea coats, double breasted sailor
looks.
○ Pants were wide and high-waisted
○ Suit jackets had wide-structured shoulders
○ Sportswear for men was a casual alternative: jackets and pants made of different fabrics.
■ Fedora hats and overcoats were worn
■ Polo, Hawaiian, and westerns shirts were popular.
Moving Forward
○ After the Depression and World War II, roles and values shifted.
■ Restrictions and rationing ended
■ A new less formal lifestyle emerged and appeared in clothing, entertainment, and recreation.
○ The American fashion industry developed a different method of distributing fashion and
designers created ready-to-wear seasonal collections.
○ Department stores created a shopping experience for their customers with varieties of products,
events, and in-store restaurants.
1946–1959: The New Look and Fashion Conformity
● Important people and events:
○ Global interaction led to fusion of politics and culture
○ England: prime minister Winston Churchill and Queen Elizabeth
○ France reestablished itself as the fashion capital of the world
○ U.S. joins NATO, The Cold War, Space Race – U.S. and Russia,
○ Credit cards introduced
○ Post-war rebuilding
○ Return to traditional family roles
○ Suburbia grew
○ Racial segregation ruled unconstitutional in the U.S.
○ Medicine and technology breakthroughs.
Art and Entertainment:
○ Abstract expressionism – Jackson Pollock and Willem de Kooning
○ “Rock-n-roll” – Buddy Holly, Elvis, “American Bandstand”
○ Television main form of entertainment at home.
Movies that showcase this fashion:
○ Rear Window, Rebel Without a Cause, The Wild One, Funny Face, Grease, Back
to the Future, I Love Lucy and Happy Days.
● Women:
○ Christian Dior introduced the feminine “New Look”—full skirts and tight waists
○ Hats and stilettos completed the looks
○ Women always wore dresses – pants and jeans were not accepted.
○ “Soda fountain style,” for teenage fans of rock ‘n’ roll.
Men:
○ “Ivy League” – conservative suits and button-down shirts
○ Late 1950s: rebellious looks – leather jackets, jeans, T-shirts, and biker boots
Moving Forward:
○ This generation is known as The Baby Boomers
○ College became more accessible
○ Youth began to question their parent’s values
○ Support for civil rights grew
○ Development of polyester and new artificial fibers
○ Global garment production and rapid production increased.
1960–1969: Mod and the Youth Revolution
● Important people and events:
○ Cultural, social, and political change, revolution, and rebellion
○ John F. Kennedy elected and assassinated
○ Vietnam War
○ Apollo 11 moon landing
○ Equality for women – introduction of The Pill
○ Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. “I Have a Dream”
○ Woodstock 1969
● Art and Entertainment:
○ The Beatles, The Beach Boys, Janis Joplin, and Jimi Hendrix
○ Pop art – Andy Warhol
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○ Breakfast at Tiffany’s, West Side Story, Blow-Up, The Graduate, The Outsiders, The Dick
Van Dyke Show and The Doris Day Show.
● Conservative Fashions
○ Women:
■ Jackie O
■ Fitted dresses- hemline below the knee
■ Classic suits
■ Pillbox hat
■ Polished looks
○ Men:
■ Clean- look
■ Sport jackets
■ Button down shirts
■ Short hair styles
● Style tribes: groups of people that wear distinctive looks to demonstrate their association.
● Mod Style: bright colors and patterns, hemlines above the knee, colored tights, patent leather,
slim fitted ties and suites.
○ Women:
■ Twiggy
■ Mary Quant and the miniskirt
■ Bouffant hairstyles
■ Wild patterns and bright colors
■ Knee-high go-go boots
○ Men:
■ Edwardian styles
■ Longer hair in a bowl-cut
■ Glasses
● Hippie Style: “free” style worn by both men and women
○ Natural fibers
○ Gypsy styles
○ Tie-dye, batik, and embroideries
○ Bell-bottom jeans
○ Sheer tunic tops worn without a bra
○ Headbands, and love beads
○ Long hair styles and afro hairstyles
● Space Age Style
○ Futuristic synthetic fabrics
○ Geometric silhouettes
○ Metal, paper, or plastic were linked or glued together
○ Metallic colors
Moving Forward
○ Individuality and self-expression
○ Unisex fashion
○ Women struggled for equality
○ Women rebelled against societies views about feminine beauty
○ European fashion influenced by ready-to-wear
○ Social and economic instability continued
1970–1979: Street Fashion and the “Me” Generation
● Important people and events:
○ Social unrest
○ Antiwar demonstrations against the Vietnam War
○ First Gay Pride march
○ Beginning of Earth Day movement
○ Watergate scandal
○ US economic woes
○ Oil Embargo
○ Women had careers
○ Divorce rates went up
○ Development of computer technology
○ Increased air travel
● Art and Entertainment:
○ Pop culture – TV
○ Music – punk rock, new wave, and heavy metal, funk
○ Disco dancing
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○Saturday Night Fever, Star Wars, Dazed and Confused, Shaft, Annie Hall, Almost
Famous, The Brady Bunch, Charlie’s Angels, and That ’70s Show.
● Women:
■ Mini, maxi, and midi skirts
■ Started to incorporate pants into fashion – palazzo pants, pantsuits, and hot pants.
○ Casual dressing – denim
○Designer jeans
○ Classic looks and lifestyle dressing- Ralph Lauren
○ Punk look – Vivienne Westwood
○ Hippie look
○ Disco look – Studio 54
Moving Forward
○ Vietnam war ended
○ Street style started to dictate fashion
○ Increasing global access influenced fashion
○ The birth of Punk fashion with Vivienne Westwood
1980–1989: Postmodernism and Time of Excess
● Important people and events:
○ Major economic growth
○ Middle East conflicts
○ Ongoing cold war US/ Russian
○ England: wedding of Prince Charles and Lady Diana
○ AIDS epidemic
○ Computer use increased
○ ‘87 market crashed
● Art and Entertainment:
○ MTV brought music and fashion to forefront
○ Mega pop stars
○ Rap music and hip-hop
○ Video games
○ Street dancing
○ Supermodels became more famous movie stars
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○Scarface, Flash dance, Desperately Seeking Susan, Goodfellas, and Wall Street
● Women
○ Tailored suits with powerful shoulders
○ Nancy Reagan red suit
○ Commuter white sneakers
○ Fitness craze
■ “The bigger the better” including big hair and accessories
■ Neon and bright colors
● Men:
○ Tailored sharp suits
■ Flashy, over the top looks
■ Miami Vice inspired suit with t-shirt
● Art and Entertainment
○ Hip hop – urban trends
○ Alternative – grunge movement
○ Reality TV shows
○ Home entertainment systems; video games, DVDs, home theatres
● Movies that showcase this fashion:
○ Prêt-à-Porter, Breakin’, Boyz n the Hood, Jerry McGuire, Clueless, New Jack City, Do the
Right Thing, Legally Blonde, and Menace II Society.
Moving Forward
○ Economic fluctuation
○ Expansion in industrialized markets
○ Social shifts in gender roles
○ Conspicuous consumption led to restraint.
1990–1999: Global Fashion and Internet Explosion
● Important people and events:
○ Worldwide globalization
○ Collapse of the Soviet Union; end of the Cold War
○ The Gulf War
○ International terrorism
○ Increased global manufacturing in China
○ Change in work patterns- from home, alternative schedules, job sharing
○ Technology advances – computers, cell phones, and the Internet
● Fashion of the Time
○ “Everything goes”
○ Minimalism and casualness
○ Private label merchandise
○ Outlet malls
○ Mega-malls
○ Casual style: Banana Republic and the Gap
○ Grunge style: alternative rock musicians from the Seattle scene; torn jeans, Converse, flannels
○ Goth/industrial punk: dark leather looks, corsets, and metal studding
○ Urban look: oversized garments, low slung pants with visible underwear, “bling” jewelry
○ Preppy style: varsity-style sweaters, classic blazers, button-down shirts, cardigan sweaters
○ Vintage style: resurgence of hippie
Moving Forward
○ Fashion no longer dictated from the top
○ Technology changed how designers, retailers, and consumers responded to fashion
○ Increasing market segmentation
○ Enthusiasm and trepidation about the upcoming millennium
○ Larger global community interested in fashion
○ Established fashion rules changed.
2000–2010: New Millennium and Social Networking
● Important people and events:
○ Y2K fears
○ Terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001
○ Environmental issues, global warming, and sustainability
○ Global recession
○ Ongoing Middle Eastern violence
○ Environmental issues
○ Technological advances – social networking
○ Fast fashion – H&M, Zara, forever 21
●Art and Entertainment:
○iPod and iPad
○Music festivals
○Techno and house music
○Reality TV
○Lady Gaga and outrageous outfits
● Movies/TV that showcase this fashion:
○ Lost in Translation, 8 Mile, The Devil Wears Prada, Valentino: The Last Emperor, Sex and the
City, Slum Dog Millionaire, Confessions of a Shopaholic, The September Issue, Hannah
Montana, The Vampire Diaries, Project Runway, Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, and Keeping
Up with the Kardashians.
● Fashion of the Time
○ Influenced by celebrity culture, vintage interest, and “green” fashions
○ Designers do lines for affordable stores – Target, H&M
○ Sustainable designs and products
○ Utility-inspired trends – cargo pants, multifunctional jackets
○ High performance fabric
○ End of decade led to return of more tailored clothing
○ Lingerie revolution
Moving Forward
○ Fashion continues to change
○ Global interactions and cultural boundaries shifted
○ Technological advances shaped the new times.
2010–2020: The Twenty- Tens and Global Unrest
● Spirit of the time
○ Massive flow of refugees from the Middle East due to civil war.
○ Great political divide in the US
○ Fear of nuclear conflicts heightened
○ Concerns about global warming and the environment increased
○ China became the second largest economy
○ Same sex marriages were legalized in over 18 countries
○ LGBT acceptance increased
○ 3D and robotic technology increased
○ Space exploration became privatized
○ Concerns about global warming and the environment increased
○ Virtual reality and augmented reality blurred lines
● Fashion of the Time
○ Revival and chaos popularized mismatched looks.
○ Athleisurewear was everyday wear
○ Technical textiles were made with new properties
○ Neutral colors aligned with the minimalist trend
○ Skinny silhouettes were worn by men and women
○ Gender neutral clothing were shared by all
○ Whimsical graphics were inspired by pop culture iconography
● Movies/TV or online streaming that showcase this fashion : Breaking Bad, The Walking
Dead, Orange is the New Black, Game of Thrones, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, 12 Years a
Slave, straight out of Compton, and Gravity.
Moving Forward
○ Social and cultural shifts emphasized due to increased globalization
○ Lifestyle and pulse of change influenced the fashion industry
○ Social media increased the deluge of information
○ Development of more sustainable manufacturing techniques evolved
○ Modern attitudes about gender and social equality continued to be redefined.
Chapter 3: Fashion Movement
Theories of Fashion Adoption
The three theories are:
● Trickle down or downward flow.
○ People of wealth and prominence adopt a style, and gradually that style spreads downward into
the lower classes.
■ Oldest theory of fashion adoption
■ Once the lower classes duplicate the look, new styles must be introduced to maintain social
position and power.
● Trickles across or horizontal flow
○ Assumes that fashion moves across groups who are in similar social levels rather than down
from a higher level to a lower level.
■ Acknowledges mass production, mass communication, and an emerging middle market.
■ Different markets have different requirements for products
■ “Fast fashion” is an example
● Trickle up or upward flow
○ Fashion adoption begins from “the streets”
■ Looks became popular within a specific social group then move into mainstream fashion
■ Newest theory of fashion adoption
■ The pace of the adoption is difficult to determine.
Fashion Cycle
● Lifespan of a style or a trend
● Five stages
○ Stage 1: Introduction
■ A fashion mood or idea appears
■ An innovator acknowledges the idea in new fashion
■ Innovators develop concepts
■ The style is seen as a possible emerging trend
■ Designers introduce fresh ideas, styles, colors, fabrications, or details
■ Fashion leaders and trendsetters experiment with the new styles
○ Stage 2: Rise
■ Styles are accepted by more people because of wider recognition
■ Planning is initiated for mass market
■ Styles are copied by manufacturers
■ Price drops, quantity increases, and sales increase

○ Stage 3: Culmination
■ Height of popularity and use
■ Accepted throughout multiple markets
■ Mass production with new design details, colors, and innovations
■ Possibility for the style to become a classic
■ Potential for volume sales in mass market
○ Stage 4: Decline
■ Repetition of looks
■ Decline of interest and decrease in demand by consumer
■ Market is saturated with fashion product
■ Price resistance by consumer
■ Retailers mark down merchandise and offer price incentives
■ Production slows
○ Stage 5: Obsolescence
■ Lack of interest for look and no interest for the product
■ No retail potential at any price
■ Consumer is reluctant to buy.
Pendulum Swings
● Movement of fashion between extremes
○ Jeans:
■ Worn at or near the natural waistline
■ Jeans began to be worn lower and lower
■ Eventually jeans could not go any lower
■ New trend of “high waist” pants emerged
Fashion Curves
● Fad
○ A look that swiftly becomes popular, is widely accepted, and then rapidly disappears
■ Has a prevalent feature or detail
■ Often appear in the accessory market
● Classic
○ A look that remains in the fashion for a long time
■ Simple design that satisfies basic needs
■ A classic silhouette is timeless
■ Women: the little black dress (introduced by Coco Chanel in 1926).
■ Men: single- breasted blazer in navy, brown, or black
■ Do not have exaggerated details or trims.
Speed of Fashion Change
● Introduction and rise stages speed is faster
● Middle stages the adoption process slows
● Obsolescence stage style ends due to the lack of interest from the consumer
● The speed of fashion has become increasingly faster through instant access to information
through technology.