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Samsung Quarterly Sales Prediction Report

1) The report aims to predict Samsung's quarterly sales using a time series analysis of 12 years of past data. Initially, a linear model was used but did not accurately capture the trend. 2) A quadratic model was then applied, squaring the time variable, which better fit the data. This quadratic model successfully predicted Samsung's 2023 quarterly sales values. 3) An iterative approach of testing different models was important to identify the best representation of Samsung's sales trajectory over time. The quadratic model proved to most accurately forecast quarterly sales.

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35 views4 pages

Samsung Quarterly Sales Prediction Report

1) The report aims to predict Samsung's quarterly sales using a time series analysis of 12 years of past data. Initially, a linear model was used but did not accurately capture the trend. 2) A quadratic model was then applied, squaring the time variable, which better fit the data. This quadratic model successfully predicted Samsung's 2023 quarterly sales values. 3) An iterative approach of testing different models was important to identify the best representation of Samsung's sales trajectory over time. The quadratic model proved to most accurately forecast quarterly sales.

Uploaded by

prathmeshsuryavanshi97
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
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Samsung Quarterly Sales Prediction Report

Subject Name
Managerial Economics

Submitted to
Dr. Manish Sinha

Submitted by
Prathmesh Suryavanshi (23020348029)
Introduction

The objective of this report is to predict Samsung's quarterly sales.


Initially, we attempted to forecast sales using a linear model, taking into
account the seasonality of the data. However, upon analysis, it was found that
this model was not accurate enough. Therefore, we pivoted to a quadratic
model, squaring the time variable, which yielded improved results. In our
scenario, we have taken Samsung 12 years of quarterly data (2010 to 2023).
We will try to predict the sales of 2023 by using the optimal trend analysis
method.

Methodology

 Removing Seasonality
To ensure a fair comparison between actual sales and our predicted
values, the seasonality inherent in Samsung's sales data was first removed.
This step was crucial to isolate the trend component of the data and make
accurate predictions.

 Linear Prediction Model


Once seasonality was removed, we applied a linear regression model to
predict quarterly sales. This approach was chosen based on the initial
observation of the trend, which appeared linear.

Prediction
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0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
 Quadratic Prediction Model
Given that our linear model did not deliver accurate predictions, we
revisited our approach. It was hypothesized that the trend may follow a
quadratic curve instead. By squaring the time variable, we transformed our
model from a linear to a quadratic one, expecting a better fit. We can see
direction in the data only once.

Chart Title
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0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Results

 Linear Prediction Model Outcomes


The linear model showed significant discrepancies between the
predicted and actual quarterly sales values. This indicated that a linear trend
might not be the best representation of Samsung's sales trajectory over the
given period.

Actual Sale Sales


Predicted
535 Q1'23 60.50
85.3217746
543 Q2'23 53.50
555 Q3'23
81.6412932
564 Q4'23
5
90.2345144
 Quadratic Prediction 5 Model Outcomes
5
87.4469434
6
The quadratic model, on the other hand, matched the actual trend. This
alignment confirmed our hypothesis that the sales trend had a quadratic
nature.

Actual Sale Predicted Sales


53 Q1'23 60.50 5 54.4626803
54 Q2'23 53.50 3 9
55 Q3'23 5
53.7892671
56 Q4'23 4
5 45.6372349
Discussion 5 2
5 43.7985032
The initial 6 2 understanding of the sales
trend highlights the importance of model selection in time series forecasting.
While linear trends are common and can be an appropriate starting point, it's
crucial to verify the model's accuracy with the actual data. In this case, our
iterative approach allowed us to refine our prediction model, we tired the
cubic quadratic model and exponential model and ultimately selecting the
square quadratic model as the best representation of Samsung's sales trend.

Conclusion

Through the process of removing seasonality, testing a linear model, and


then pivoting to a quadratic model, we were able to accurately predict
Samsung's quarterly sales. This aspire underscores the importance of flexibility
and adaptability in data analysis, especially when predicting complex real-
world phenomena like sales trends.

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