Saam Slide l7
Saam Slide l7
Université de Lausanne
SUSTAINABILITY AWARE
ASSET MANAGEMENT
Eric Jondeau
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 1/40
SAAM
Lecture 7: Portfolio Construction under Climate Risks
Eric Jondeau
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 2/40
Objectives of the Lecture
Several tools can be used in the fight against climate change.
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 3/40
Objectives of the Lecture
Readings
Cheng G., Jondeau E., and B. Mojon (2023), “Building Portfolios of Sovereign Securities with
Decreasing Carbon Footprints”,
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4207316
Fahlenbrach, R., and E. Jondeau (2021), “Greening the Swiss National Bank's Portfolio”,
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3906654
Jondeau E., B. Mojon, and L.A. Pereira da Silva (2021), “Building Benchmarks Portfolios with
Decreasing Carbon Footprints”, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 21-91
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 4/40
Objectives of the Lecture
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 5/40
Regulation: United Nations
United Nations Climate Change Conference: Conference of the Parties (COP)
The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty that commits state parties to reduce
GHG emissions, based on the scientific consensus that:
The US did not ratify (dropped out in 2001), and Canada withdrew from the Protocol
in 2012.
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 6/40
Regulation: United Nations
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty with the following goals:
• Keep a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels
• Pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C
• Increase the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change
• Make finance flows consistent with low GHG emissions and climate-resilient
pathways
• 194 states have signed the Agreement (representing about 80% of GHG emissions)
• The US have recently rejoined the Agreement in 2021 (under Biden administration)
• Iran and Turkey have not signed the Agreement
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 7/40
Regulation: Financial Regulators
“We don't need an army of actuaries to tell us that the catastrophic impacts of climate change
will be felt beyond the traditional horizons of most actors - imposing a cost on future
generations that the current generation has no direct incentive to fix.” (Mark Carney, 2015)
Some central banks, regulators and supervisors are already taking steps towards
integrating climate-related risks into supervisory practices
The NGFS recognized that “climate-related risks are a source of financial risk. It is
therefore within the mandates of central banks and supervisors to ensure the financial
system is resilient to these risks” (NGFS, 2018, p. 3).
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 8/40
Regulation: Financial Regulators
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) (https://www.bis.org/): International
financial institution owned by central banks that “fosters international monetary and
financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks”. The BIS hosts the
Secretariat of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and has played a
central role in establishing the Basel Capital framework.
Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels (2021)
Climate-related financial risks – measurement methodologies (2021)
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 9/40
Coalitions
• One Planet Summit
www.oneplanetsummit.fr
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Investors Alliances
Several initiatives by large asset managers around temperature alignment
• Climate Action 100+: an investor initiative to ensure the world’s largest corporate
GHG emitters take necessary action on climate change. In particular, the Action
objective states: “[…] reduce GHG emissions across the value chain, consistent with
the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well
below 2°C”
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 11/40
Carbon Pricing
Polluter pays principle
• Carbon tax directly sets a price on carbon by defining a tax rate on GHG emissions
or – more commonly – on the carbon content of fossil fuels
• Emissions trading scheme (ETS) (also called Cap-and-trade system) caps the total
level of GHG emissions and allows those industries with low emissions to sell their
extra allowances to larger emitters.
Carbon tax: the price is pre-defined, but the emission reduction outcome is not.
Some 40 countries and more than 20 cities, states and provinces already use carbon
pricing mechanisms
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Carbon Pricing
Share of global emissions covered by carbon pricing initiatives (ETS and carbon tax)
China
National ETS
EU ETS
Source: https://www.carbontax.org/where-carbon-is-taxed-overview/
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Carbon Pricing: ETS
Trading Economics Carbon Emissions Allowances Prices are sourced from the EU ETS,
the world's largest cap and trade GHG emissions market (euro/tCO2)
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/carbon
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Carbon Pricing: Tax
Prices in implemented carbon pricing initiatives
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Objectives of the Lecture
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Physical versus Market Measures
There are two main topics related to decarbonization due to double materiality
Next questions:
https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/how-to-evaluate-climate-metrics/03644475407
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 18/40
Concepts – Carbon Metrics
Several ways to measure carbon impact of a portfolio:
1- Carbon footprint
3- Avoided emissions
4- Green-brown metrics
5- Benchmark
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 19/40
Carbon Intensity Measures
It is natural to normalize carbon emissions relative to a metric of size, quantity or value.
Firms in the same industry usually use a physical intensity, financial institutions use a
monetary intensity for their portfolio.
Cradle-to-gate: from
the production to the
store
Cradle-to-grave:
entire life of the
product
- Monetary intensity measures the carbon emissions relative to some monetary value
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 20/40
Monetary Carbon Intensity Measures
To compare carbon emissions between firms of different size, normalization is required.
A natural indicator is the carbon emissions relative to the revenues (sales) of the firms:
𝐸!,#
𝐶𝐼!,# =
𝑅𝑒𝑣!,#
(1) Economic carbon intensity: Volume of carbon emissions (in tons of CO2
equivalent) per million dollars of revenue (tCO2e/mln $). It measures the carbon
efficiency of the portfolio:
'! (%)
(%)
∑ !() !,# 𝐸!,#
𝑜
𝐶𝐼!,# = ' (%)
∑!()
!
𝑜!,# 𝑅𝑒𝑣!,#
where
- 𝐸!,# is the amount of carbon emitted by firm i in year t
- 𝑅𝑒𝑣!,# is the revenue generated by the firm
(%) (%)
- 𝑜!,# = 𝑉!,# /𝐶𝑎𝑝!,# is the fraction of the equity of the firm held in the portfolio
(%)
- 𝑉!,# is the dollar value invested in firm i
- 𝐶𝑎𝑝!,# is the market capitalization of firm i in year t
- 𝑁# the number of firms available in year t
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 21/40
Monetary Carbon Intensity Measures
The carbon intensity can be rewritten as
(#)
'! 𝑉%,!
∑ '!
𝑜
(#)
𝐸 ∑ %() 𝐶𝑎𝑝 𝐸%,! '! 𝛼
(#)
(#) %() %,! %,! %,! %,! 1
𝐶𝐼! = ' (#) = (#)
= - (#)
𝐸%,!
∑%() 𝑜%,! 𝑅𝑒𝑣%,! %() 𝐶𝑎𝑝%,!
'! 𝑉%,! 𝛼*,!
!
'!
∑%() 𝑅𝑒𝑣%,! ∑*()
𝐶𝑎𝑝%,! 𝐶𝑎𝑝*,! 𝑅𝑒𝑣*,!
𝑅𝑒𝑣%,!
(#)
'!
(#) 𝐶𝑎𝑝%,! 𝐸%,! '!
(#) (#) 𝐸%,!
'!
(#) (#)
𝐶𝐼! = - 𝛼%,! = - 𝛼%,! 𝜔%,! = - 𝛼%,! 𝜔%,! 𝐶𝐼%,!
(#) 𝑅𝑒𝑣*,! 𝑅𝑒𝑣%,! 𝑅𝑒𝑣%,!
%()
∑' !
𝛼
*() *,! 𝐶𝑎𝑝*,!
%() %()
where
(%) (%) (%) (%) '! (%)
- 𝛼!,# = 𝑉!,# /𝑉# is the weight of firm i in the portfolio (𝑉# = ∑!() 𝑉!,# )
(%) *+,",! ' (%) *+,$,!
- 𝜔!,# = / ∑/()
!
𝛼/,#
-.%",! -.%$,!
Remark: Only when all firms have the same revenue per market value, one has
'!
(%) (%)
𝐶𝐼# =1 𝛼!,# 𝐶𝐼!,#
!()
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 22/40
Carbon Intensity Measures
(2) Weighted-average carbon intensity: Portfolio's exposure to carbon-intensive
companies, expressed in tCO2e/mln $:
'! '!
(%) (%) (%) 𝐸!,#
𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐼# = 1 𝛼!,# 𝐶𝐼!,# = 1 𝛼!,#
𝑅𝑒𝑣!,#
!() !()
(3) Carbon footprint: Total carbon emissions for a portfolio normalized by the market
value of the portfolio (“financed emissions”). It expresses the amount of annual carbon
emissions that can be allocated to the investor per million dollars invested in the portfolio
(tCO2e/mln $):
'! '!
(%) (%) 𝐸!,# 1 (%)
𝐶𝐹# = 1 𝛼!,# = (%) 1 𝑜!,# 𝐸!,#
𝐶𝑎𝑝!,# 𝑉
!() # !()
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 23/40
Carbon Exposure Measures
Example of a Portfolio’s Scope 1–3 Carbon Metrics (2019)
Portfolio value: $100 billion
Market weights: based on market cap, Portfolio weights: my choice
Walmart Southern Exxon Portfolio
Company Mobil
Scope 13 emissions (mln tonnes) (𝐸!,# ) 59.8 96.6 227.3
Revenue (bln $) (𝑅𝑒𝑣!,# ) 514.4 20.7 255.6
Scope 13 intensity (tonnes/mln $ rev) 116.3 4673.8 889.3 Ownership:
Market cap (bln $) (𝐶𝑎𝑝!,# ) 337.2 66.8 295.3 The investor
Relative market weight 0.482 0.096 0.422 100.0 holds fraction
(%) 0.095/1000 of
Ptf market value (mln $) (𝑉!,# ) 31.9 12.5 55.6 100.0 the market
(%)
Ptf weight (𝛼!,# ) value of
0.319 0.125 0.556 100.0 Walmart
(%)
Ownership (𝑜!,# ) (1/1000) 0.095 0.187 0.188
Ptf WA intensity (tonnes/mln $ rev) 37.1 584.5 494.1 1115.8
Ptf intensity (tonnes/mln $ rev) -- -- -- 660.7
Ptf footprint (tonnes/mln $ invested) 56.6 180.8 427.7 665.2
Source: Trucost (2021).
𝛼!,# × 𝐶𝐼!,# (%)
𝑜!,# × 𝐸!,# /𝑉#
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 24/40
Avoided Emissions
Avoided emissions are emission reductions that occur outside of a product’s life cycle
or value chain, but as a result of the use of that product.
- low-temperature detergents
- fuel-saving tires
- teleconferencing services
Scope 1 and 2 emission reductions due to energy-saving and energy-mix process, do not
qualify as “avoided emissions”
Emissions avoided by a company through the sale of low-carbon products / services lead
to the reduction of the direct (Scope 1 and 2) emissions of the user or client.
Avoided emissions contribute to the overall objective of reducing total emissions at the
macroeconomic level
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Exclusion/Best-in-Class Strategies
We assume an investor who does not want to invest in highly polluting firms. We define
a highly polluting firm as a firm with a high carbon intensity.
1- Define a threshold of the carbon intensity above which a given firm is excluded
o Reinvest in the firms with the lowest carbon intensity in the same countries or
sectors as excluded firms (best-in-class approach with same region-sector
exposures)
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 27/40
Exclusion Strategy
Strategy rule:
1- Define the list of firms to be excluded from the BAU benchmark portfolio as the firms
with the highest carbon intensity 𝐶𝐼!,# :
'!
𝐼0,# = {11-2",! 34%,!5 }!()
where 𝑞6,# is the carbon intensity threshold corresponding to a probability 𝜃 of the
carbon intensity distribution (say 99%). The targeted “exclusion probability” is (1 − 𝜃)
𝑞6,# is defined such that the sum of the market weights of excluded firms,
(7 )
∑' !
! () !,# 1{-2",! 34%,! } , is as close as possible to the targeted probability, (1 − 𝜃)
𝛼
'
2- Define the number of excluded firms as 𝑁0,# = ∑! ()
!
1{-2",! 34%,! } .
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 28/40
Exclusion Strategy: Logic
The exclusion or
best-in-class
strategy benefits
from the extreme
asymmetry in the
distribution of
carbon intensity
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Exclusion Strategy: Weights
Vector of weights:
(% ) (7 )
𝛼!,# = 0 for 𝑖 ∈ 𝐼0,# with 1 𝛼!,# ≈ 1−𝜃
!∈2&,!
(% ) (7 ) 1
𝛼!,# = 𝛼!,# I ( )
J for 𝑖 ∈ 𝐼2,#
∑!∈2',! 𝛼!,#7
where 𝐼2,# is the list of firms included in the portfolio (complementary to 𝐼0,# )
Very effective
... but impact on regional and sectoral exposures
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 30/40
Exclusion Strategy: Performance
Source: Jondeau, Mojon, and Pereira da Silva (2021). Intensity and footprint are in tonnes CO2e/million $.
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 31/40
Excluded Firms across Sectors
Source: Jondeau, Mojon, and Pereira da Silva (2021). Intensity and footprint are in tonnes CO2e/million $.
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 32/40
Excluded Firms across Countries
Source: Jondeau, Mojon, and Pereira da Silva (2021). Intensity and footprint are in tonnes CO2e/million $.
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 33/40
Best-In-class Strategy: In practice
Carbon intensity Scope 1-3 (tCO2e/$ mln revenue)
Massive Marginal
reallocation reallocation
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 34/40
Best-In-class Strategy
Strategy rule:
1- Denote by 𝑅! and 𝑆! the region and sector of firm i. The indicator variable 1{*" (<,=" (>}
is equal to 1 if the firm belongs to region r and sector s and 0 otherwise.
! '
2- Denote the set of firms in region r and sector s by 𝐼# (𝑟, 𝑠) = {1*" (<,=" (>} }!() . The list
of firms to be excluded (𝐼0,# ) in region r and sector s is
! '
𝐼0,# (𝑟, 𝑠) = {11*" (<,=" (>,-2",!34%,!5 }!()
(7 ) (7 )
A proportion 𝜃# (𝑟, 𝑠) = ∑!∈2&,! (<,>) 𝛼!,# / ∑!∈2!(<,>) 𝛼!,# of the market value is excluded.
3- The proceeds are reinvested in the same region-sector in the set of firms with the
lowest carbon intensity with a cumulative market value approximately the same. The set
'!
of overweighted firms is defined as 𝐼?,# (𝑟, 𝑠) = {1@* (<,= (>,-2 A4 }
B !()
.
" " ",! %! (),*),!
The overall set of overweighted firms is given by 𝐼?,# = O𝐼?,# (𝑟, 𝑠)P<,> .
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 35/40
Best-In-class Strategy
Vector of weights:
(% ) (7 )
𝛼!,# = 0 for 𝑖 ∈ 𝐼0,# with 1 𝛼!,# ≈ 1−𝜃
!∈2&,!
(% ) (7 )
𝛼!,# = 𝛼!,# for 𝑖 ∈ 𝐼2,#
(7 )
(% ) 7 ( )
∑/∈2&,!(*" ,=" ) 𝛼!,#
𝛼!,# = 𝛼!,# I1 + ( )
J for 𝑖 ∈ 𝐼?,#
∑/∈2,,! (*" ,=" ) 𝛼!,#7
(7 ) (7 )
where ∑/∈2,,! (*" ,=" ) 𝛼!,# ≈ ∑/∈2&,!(*" ,=" ) 𝛼!,#
Very effective
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 36/40
Best-In-class Strategy
Source: Jondeau, Mojon, and Pereira da Silva (2021). Intensity and footprint are in tonnes CO2e/million $.
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Exclusion/Best-in-Class Strategies
Reduction of portfolio carbon emissions (2005-2020) – Scope 1+2+3 upstream
Annual. return (in %) 8.67 8.69 8.93 9.15 8.68 8.69 8.69
Annual. volatility (in %) 16.3 16.3 16.1 16.4 16.2 16.1 16.3
Sharpe ratio 0.53 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.53 0.54 0.53
Tracking error (in %) (–) 0.09 0.71 1.71 0.07 0.44 1.06
Source: Jondeau, Mojon, and Pereira da Silva (2021). Intensity and footprint are in tonnes CO2e/million $.
MScF (2023-24) Pr. Eric Jondeau – Sustainability Aware Asset Management 38/40
Portfolio Optimization with Carbon Risk
Minimum Variance Portfolio
We consider the Global Minimum Variance (GMV) Portfolio, which solves the program
1 D
min 𝛼# Σ#E) α#
C 2
𝑠. 𝑡. 𝛼#D 𝑒 = 1
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Portfolio Optimization with Carbon Risk
Adding Restrictions
Fundamental-based risk management: We restrict the exposure of the portfolio to
carbon intensity (idiosyncratic carbon risk)
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