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Topic 7
Probability

In Topic 6, we determined the number of possible outcomes using counting techniques. In Topic 7,
we will discuss how likely an outcome can occur. First, let us define some terms and notations.

• Sample space, denoted by 𝑆, is the set of all possible outcomes of some experiment.
• Sample point is an element in 𝑆.
• Event, denoted by any capital letter, is a set of outcomes in 𝑆. It is a subset of 𝑆.
• 𝑛 is the total number of possible outcomes in 𝑆.

Consider the experiment of tossing a fair die. Then, 𝑺 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔}. The numbers 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔
are sample points in 𝑺 thus 𝒏 = 𝟔.

Suppose we let event 𝑨 be an outcome that is greater than or equal to 4. So, 𝑨 = {𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔}

The question now is, “How likely will A occur?” or “What is the chance of A occurring?” or “What is
the probability of A?” We denote this probability as 𝑷(𝑨).

We define probability as the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed numerically from
0 to 1 (or from 0% to 100%), inclusive. It is synonymous to chance. When it is 𝟎, it means that 𝐴 will
not occur. For example, the probability that a human being will give birth to a carabao is 0−this will
not occur; this is an impossible event. When it is 1, then the event is a sure event. For example, the
probability that a human being giving birth to another human being is 1.

Three Approaches to Probability

1. A priori approach or Classical probability or Theoretical Approach

This approach assumes that there are finite number of outcomes in a random experiment and
that each outcome is equally likely to occur. For example, when a coin is tossed, we know that a
“Head” or a “Tail” (H or T, respectively) can occur, and we know that 𝑃(𝐻) = 1/2 and 𝑃(𝑇) =
1/2. In general, if 𝐴 is an event in 𝑆, then

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑆 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐴

𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛

2. A posteriori approach or Experimental probability or Relative frequency approach

Suppose a coin is tossed many times. Outcomes may look like this:

HTHHHTTHTHTTTHHTHTTHTHHHHTHTHTHTHHHHTHTTH…………

To get 𝑃(𝐻), we simply count how many 𝐻′𝑠 has come up divided by the total number of tosses
made. In general, if 𝐴 is an event in 𝑆, then

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𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑆 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐴

𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

3. Subjective approach

In this approach, probability of an event is based on one’s belief on the likelihood of this event’s
occurrence. When someone says “The probability of rain today is 89%”, it is based on his own
judgment or what has occurred before.

Let us look at the example of tossing a die. Then 𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6} and 𝑛 = 6. Suppose 𝐴1 is an event
where 𝐴1 =observing an outcome equal to 6. Then, 𝐴1 = {6}. What is 𝑃(𝐴1 )?
By definition,
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐴1 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑆 1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = = = 0.17
𝑛 6

So the probability of observing a number equal to 6 is equal to 0.17 or there is a 17% probability of
observing a number equal to 6.

1
Suppose 𝐴2 = observing an outcome equal to 2. So 𝐴2 = {2}. Then 𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 6 = 0.17
Now let us go back to some examples in Topic 6.

OOTDs
𝑆 = {𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑂𝑂𝑇𝐷𝑠}, so 𝑛 = 12.
Let 𝐴 = 𝑂𝑂𝑇𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒, 𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑟𝑡, 𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑠 = {𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒, 𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑟𝑡, 𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑙𝑠}
1
𝑃(𝐴) = 12

Let 𝐵 = 𝑂𝑂𝑇𝐷 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑠

= {(𝑡 − 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑡, 𝑗𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠, 𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑠), (𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒, 𝑗𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠, 𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑠), (𝑡 − 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑡, 𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑟𝑡, 𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑠), (𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒, 𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑟𝑡, 𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑠)}
4
𝑃(𝐵) = = 0.33
12

5-item True-or-False quiz

𝑆 = {𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑧} 𝑛 = 32
Let 𝐶 = 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐹 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 1𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑚, 𝑇 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 3𝑟𝑑 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑚, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑚
𝐶 = {FFTFT, FFTTT, FTTFT, FTTTT}.
4
𝑃(𝐶) = 32

Let 𝐷 = 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇 𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑠 = {𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇};

1
𝑃(𝐷) = 32

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Let 𝐸 = 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 1𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑠 , 1*1*2*2*2 = 8 ways

= {TTTTTT, TTTTF, TTTFF, TTFTT, TTFTF, TTFFT, TTFFF, TTTFT}
8
𝑃(𝐸) = 32 = 0.25

Sexes of children
𝑆 = {𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 1𝑠𝑡, 2𝑛𝑑, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3𝑟𝑑 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛) → see tree diagram, 𝑛=8
Let 𝐹 = 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙 = {𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺} ;
𝑃(𝐹) = 4/8 = 0.5
Let 𝐺 = 1𝑠𝑡 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3𝑟𝑑 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑜𝑦 1*2*1=2 ways
= {𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐵}
2
𝑃(𝐺) = = 0.25
8

Permutation of letters in the word ACE

𝑆 = {𝐴𝐶𝐸, 𝐴𝐸𝐶, 𝐶𝐴𝐸, 𝐶𝐸𝐴, 𝐸𝐴𝐶, 𝐸𝐶𝐴} 𝑛=6
Let 𝐻 = 2𝑛𝑑 𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝐴 = {𝐶𝐴𝐸, 𝐸𝐴𝐶};
2
𝑃(𝐻) = 6 = 0.33

Standing in line at Jollibee counter

𝑆 = {(𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑃𝑎𝑧), (𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑃𝑎𝑧, 𝑀𝑎𝑥), (𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑃𝑎𝑧), (𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑃𝑎𝑧, 𝑆𝑢𝑒), (𝑃𝑎𝑧, 𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑀𝑎𝑥), (𝑃𝑎𝑧, 𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑆𝑢𝑒)}

𝑛=6
Let 𝐼 = {𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟} = {(𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑃𝑎𝑧), (𝑃𝑎𝑧, 𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑆𝑢𝑒)} 2*1*1=2
2
𝑃(𝐼) = 6 = 0.33

Let 𝐽 = {𝑆𝑢𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝑀𝑎𝑥}

= {(𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑃𝑎𝑧), (𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑃𝑎𝑧), (𝑃𝑎𝑧, 𝑆𝑢𝑒, 𝑀𝑎𝑥), (𝑃𝑎𝑧, 𝑀𝑎𝑥, 𝑆𝑢𝑒)}
4
𝑃(𝐽) = = 0.67
6

Arrangements of two-letter “words” from the word ACE

𝑆 = {𝐴𝐶, 𝐶𝐴, 𝐴𝐸, 𝐸𝐴, 𝐶𝐸, 𝐸𝐶 } 𝑛=6 3*2=6
4
Let 𝐾 = “𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑” 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑎 𝑣𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑙 = {𝐴𝐶, 𝐴𝐸, 𝐸𝐴, 𝐸𝐶} 𝑃(𝐾) = 6 = 0.67

Let 𝐿 = "𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑" 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑡 = { }

0
𝑃(𝐿) = = 0
6

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3-letter “words” from the letters of the word BEE

𝑆 = {𝐵𝐸𝐸, 𝐸𝐵𝐸, 𝐸𝐸𝐵} 𝑛=3

Let 𝑀 = ”𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑” 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑡 = {𝐵𝐸𝐸}
1
𝑃(𝑀) = = 0.33
3

Dinah, a newly minted Plantita

𝑆 = {𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 6 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 1 𝑡𝑜 55} 𝑛 = 28,989,685

Suppose Dinah bets on the numbers 𝟒𝟓, 𝟎𝟐, 𝟑𝟒, 𝟐𝟑, 𝟏𝟕, 𝟓𝟐. What is her probability of winning?

She wins if her numbers, 45,02,34,23,17,52, in any order, are drawn during the designated time of
the lottery.
𝟏
𝑷[𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈] = 𝟐𝟖,𝟗𝟖𝟗,𝟔𝟕𝟓

The probabilities obtained above are all under classical probability approach. Let us look at the results
of a survey made by a researcher:

Favorite Pet Frequency

Dog 25
Cat 16
Parrot 11
Fish 38
Total 90

Suppose she randomly selects a person from her respondents. What is the probability that the person
selected has Parrot as favorite pet?

𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑡 11

Answer: 𝑃(𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑡) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙=𝑛
= 90 = 0.12

What she obtains is a probability using the A posteriori approach. A simple reminder to differentiate
A priori from A Posteriori approach: We can obtain the probabilities in A Priori approach even without
doing the actual experiment because the outcomes can easily be known, whereas in A posteriori, we
have to perform the experiment first before the outcomes can be known thus probabilities can be
computed only after such experiment.

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Rules of Probability

Rule 1
For any event 𝑨 in 𝑺, 𝟎 ≤ 𝑷(𝑨) ≤ 𝟏.

Rule 1 emphasizes that a probability cannot exceed +𝟏 nor can it be a negative value. A probability
is any value in the real number line from 0 𝑡𝑜 1 inclusive, as illustrated below:

or
|-------------------------𝑃(𝐴)----------------------------| |--------------------------𝑃(𝐴)--------------------|

Rule 2
The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes in 𝑺 is equal to 𝟏.

To illustrate this, consider tossing a coin. So, 𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6} 𝑛 = 6

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 6/6 = 1

Another example is on a survey made by a researcher with the following results:

Favorite Pet Dog Cat Parrot Fish Total

Frequency 25 16 11 38 90
Probability 25/90 16/90 11/90 38/90 90/90 = 1

Rule 3
If 𝑷(𝑨) is the probability that 𝑨 will occur, then 𝑷(𝑨𝑪 )is the probability that 𝑨 will
not occur (or the complement of A). Note that 𝑷(𝑨𝑪 ) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑨).

Toss a coin. Then 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇} 𝑛=2

If 𝑃(𝐻) = 0.5, then 𝑃(𝐻 𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐻) = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5

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Consider the favorite pet example above.

16 16 74
If 𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑡) = 90, then 𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑡 𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑡) = 1 − 90 = 90

Intuitively, this numerator is the sum of the frequencies for Dog, Parrot, and Fish.

Rule 4
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
or
𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩)

Rule 4 is called the General Additive Rule which involves multiple events. Say in 𝑆, there are events
A and B. Maybe we are interested in the probability that A and B will occur or maybe in the probability
that either A or B will occur. We are interested in probability of the intersection and union of events,
respectively. What is an intersection of two events A and B? An intersection of events A and B is an
event that contains all elements that can be found in both events (all elements common to both
events) whereas the union of two events A and B is an event that contains all elements in event A or
in event B or in both. The probability of such events, in symbols:

𝑃(𝐴 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) means the probability that events A and B will occur at the
same time; also called the probability of the intersection of
events A and B;

𝑃(𝐴 𝒐𝒓 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) means the probability that either events A or B will occur;
also called the union of events A and B

Easy reminder: “and” for intersection and “or” for union

Example

Toss a coin. 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇} 𝑛 = 2

Let 𝐴 = 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝐻 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.5

𝐵 = 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑇 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5

What is 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)? 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0 Why 0? It is 0 because when you toss one coin, you only
get either a head or a tail, but not both. It is an impossible
event. Remember, it is only one toss.

What is 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)? 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.5 + 0.5 − 0 = 1

It means that when you toss a coin, you are 100% sure
that you will get either a head or a tail. It is a sure event.

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Example

Toss a die. 𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6} 𝑛=6

2
Let 𝐶 = 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 4 = {5,6} 𝑃(𝐶) = 6
3
𝐷 = 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 = {2,4,6} 𝑃(𝐷) = 6
3
𝐸 = 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 = {1,3,5} 𝑃(𝐸) = 6
2
𝐹 = 𝑜𝑢𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 3 = {1,2} 𝑃(𝐹) =
6

Let us make use of sets in getting the probabilities.

• What is 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷)?

Find (𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) first. (𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = {5,6} ∩ {2,4,6} = {6} 6 is the only element common
to both C and D
1
Thus, 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃{6} = 6

• What is 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷)?

Find (𝐶 ∪ 𝐷) first. (𝐶 ∪ 𝐷) = {5,6} ∪ {2,4,6} = {5,6,2,4} 5,6,2,4 are the elements in
either C or D.
4
Thus, 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷) = 6

Using Rule 4 right away will still give the same answer:

2 3 1 4
𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐷) − 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 6 + 6 − 6 = 6

Now, let us use Rule 4 for the next probabilities.

• What is 𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐸)? Why 0?

3 3 0
𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐷) + 𝑃(𝐸) − 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐸) = + − = 1 6 6 6

• What is 𝑃(𝐹 ∪ 𝐸)?

2 3 1 4
𝑃(𝐹 ∪ 𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐸) − 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐸) = 6 + 6 − 6 = 6

• What is 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐶)?

3 2 1 4
𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐶) = + − =
6 6 6 6

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Test your skills:

1. Pick one card at random from a whole deck of cards.

These cards have two colors (red, black), four suits (Clubs, Hearts, Spades, Diamonds), 12 face
cards (4 Kings, 4 Queens, 4 Jacks).
.

Let A=card is red D=card is a number card G=card is a number greater than 7
B=card is black E=card is a heart
C=card is a face card F=card is a suit card

Find the following:

A. Sample Space S = _____________________________________________________
B. Probabilities
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = ________ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = _________ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷) = _______
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = _________ 𝑃(𝐺 ∩ 𝐷) = _________ 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐸) = ________
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) = _________ 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐺) = _________ 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐸) = ________
𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ) = ________

2. Toss two dice.

Let A=outcomes are both even D=outcomes are repeating
B=outcomes are both odd E=product of outcomes is greater than 20
C=sum of outcomes is equal to 10

Find the following:

A. Sample space S=__________________________________________________________
B. Probabilities

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = ________
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = ________
𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = ________
𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐶) = ________
𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐵) = ________
𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷) = ________
𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐸) = ________
𝑃(𝐷 𝑐 ) = __________

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Mutually Exclusive Events and Independent Events

Events A and B are said to mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously or at the same time.
For example, if you pick one card from a well-shuffled deck of cards, then it cannot be a face card and
a number card at the same time. Or when you toss a coin, then the outcome cannot be a head and
tail at the same time. On the other hand, events A and B are said to be independent if A does not
depend on B or vice versa. For example, the sex of the second sibling does not depend on the sex of
the first sibling. This translates to probabilities too.

Events A and B are mutually exclusive if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.

Events A and B are independent if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵).

Take note that event A and event B are independent of each other if event A’s (or B’s) probability of
occurring is the same whether or not event B (or event A) occurs.

Example

Randomly pick a card from a well-shuffled deck of cards.

Let A=card is a black card
B=card is a face card

Are A and B mutually exclusive? Check if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.

6
𝑃(card is black 𝑎𝑛𝑑 a face card) = 52 ≠ 0 → A and B are not mutually exclusive
since there are 6 black face cards.

Are A and B independent? Check if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)

6 26 12
= ( )( )
52 52 52
6 6
52
= 52

→ A and B are independent since both sides are the same.

Example

𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6} is the sample space when a die is tossed so 𝑛 = 6.

Let 𝐶 = {2,4,5} 𝐷 = {1,2,4}

Are C and D mutually exclusive? Check if 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 0. (𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = {2,4}

2
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = ≠ 0
6
→ C and D are not mutually exclusive.

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Are C and D independent? Check if 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐶)𝑃(𝐷)

2 3 3
6
≠ (6) (6) → C and D are not independent

Example

Toss three fair coins. 𝑆 = (𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇) 𝑛 = 8

4 1
Let A=observing a tail on the first coin = {𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇} 𝑃(𝐴) = 8 = 2
4 1
B=observing heads on the second coin={𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇} 𝑃(𝐵) = 8 = 2
3
C=observing only two heads={𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻} 𝑃(𝐶) =
8
7
D=observing at least one tail={𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇} 𝑃(𝐷) =8
6 3
E=observing at most two heads={𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇} 𝑃(𝐸) =8 =4

Are A and B mutually exclusive? Check if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0. 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇}

2 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = = ≠ 0 A and B are not mutually exclusive.
8 4

Are A and B independent? ChecK if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)

1 1 1
= ∗
4 2 2
1 1
4
= 4
A and B are independent.

Are A and C mutually exclusive? Check if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = 0 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = {𝑇𝐻𝐻}

1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = ≠ 0 A and C are not mutually exclusive.
8

Are A and C independent? ChecK if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐶)

1 1 3
≠ ∗ A and C are not independent.
8 2 8

On your own, check if the remaining sets are mutually exclusive or independent.

Events Mutually exclusive? Independent?

B, C
B, D
C, D
D, E
B, E
C, D
A, E
E, C

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Conditional Probability

You may ask yourself, “What is the probability that I will pass Stat 121 this semester given that I failed
in two exercises?” Or “What is the probability that tomorrow will rain given that today rained?” This
type of probability is the conditional probability that “event B will occur given that event A has
already occurred”, and our notation for this is

𝑷(𝑩∩𝑨)
𝑷(𝑩/𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑨)
provided that 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0 (The / sign means “given that”)

𝑃(𝐴) is the probability of a prior event A.

Example

Consider the contingency table of a survey of men above 40 years old:

Has lung cancer No lung cancer

Total
𝑳+ 𝑳−
Smoker 𝑺+ 200 50 250
Non-smoker 𝑺− 35 150 185
Total 235 200 435

What is the probability that a man randomly selected from this group

𝟐𝟑𝟓
1. has lung cancer? 𝑷(𝑳+ ) = 𝟒𝟑𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟓4

𝟐𝟓𝟎
2. is a smoker? 𝑷(𝑺+ ) = 𝟒𝟑𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟕

𝟐𝟎𝟎
3. is a smoker and has lung cancer? 𝑷(𝑺+ ∩ 𝑳+ ) = 𝟒𝟑𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔

4. is a smoker or has no lung cancer? 𝑷(𝑺+ ∪ 𝑳− ) = 𝑷(𝑺+ ) + 𝑷(𝑳− ) − 𝑷(𝑺+ ∩ 𝑳− )

250 200 50 400
= + − = = 0.92
435 435 435 435

𝟐𝟎𝟎
𝑷(𝑳+ ∩ 𝑺+ ) 𝟐𝟎𝟎
5. has lung cancer given that he is a smoker? 𝑷(𝑳+ /𝑺+ ) = 𝑃(𝑺+ )
= 𝟒𝟑𝟓
𝟐𝟓𝟎 = 𝟐𝟓𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟎
𝟒𝟑𝟓

6. is not a smoker but has lung cancer? 𝑷(𝑺− ∩ 𝑳+ ) = 𝑷(𝑺− ) + 𝑷(𝑳+ ) − 𝑷(𝑺− ∩ 𝑳+ )
185 235 35 385
= 435 + 435 − 435 = 435 = 0.89

7. is either a smoker or non-smoker? 𝑷(𝑺+ ∪ 𝑺− ) = 𝑷(𝑺+ ) + 𝑷(𝑺− ) − 𝑷(𝑺+ ∩ 𝑺− )

250 185 0
= 435 + 435 − 435 = 1

8. has no lung cancer given that he is not a smoker? __________________________________

9. is a smoker given that he has lung cancer? ________________________________________

10. is either a nonsmoker or has lung cancer? _______________________________________

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Example

Tips on solving probabilities:

1. Find the sample space first. It helps if a tree diagram is constructed. Remember the counting
methods discussed in Topic 6. Visualize the problem, if possible, using small number of elements
2. Define events clearly.
3. Be aware of the words “or” and “and”.
4. Check that the probability is between 0 and 1 only, inclusive. If it exceeds +1 or is less than 0
(negative), then you are not computing it correctly.

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