PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Probability had its beginnings in the middle of the seventeenth century because
of a disagreement over a dice game. A wealthy patron, Antoine Gombaud, the
chevalier demere, ask Blaise Pascal a question about rolling a total of 12 with
two dice. Pascal and Fermat then had a correspondence, which was in essence
the beginning of probability theory. It has grown into a varied discipline with
applications in the social and natural sciences and is now used not only by
gamblers, but also by statistician, economists, insurance companies, engineers,
and others.

The statistician is basically concerned with drawing conclusions or inferences

from experiments involving uncertainties. For these conclusions and inferences to
be accurately interpreted, an understanding of probability theory is essential.

What so we mean when we make the statements “John will probably win the
tennis match” or “I have a 50-50 chance of getting an even number when a die
is tossed” or “I’m not likely to win at Bingo tonight”, or ”Most of our graduating
class will probably be married within 3 years?” In each case, we are expressing
an outcome of which we are not certain, but because of pat information or from
an understanding of the structure of the experiment, we have some degree of
confidence in the validity of the statement.

In general, there is a set of possible if an event or experiment occurs. The set of

all possible results is called the sample space. Each element of the sample
space is called a sample point or outcome. Any subset of a sample space is
called an event. For instance, if a die is cast, it may stop with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
on top. Hence, {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} is the sample space, and any one of these
elements is an outcome or sample point. Furthermore, any combination or
subset of them is an event.

If a die is made accurately and rolled honestly, it is as likely to stop with one
number up as another. Thus, each of the outcomes is equally likely, and we
say the outcome is random. In our study, we shall assume that …

All outcomes of experiments are equally likely.

We will use the following notation in this study:

14
 Symbol Meaning

S The sample space of all possible outcomes

n(S) The number of elements in S

E A set of outcomes in S, called an event; hence is a subset of S

n(E) The number of elements in E

p(E) The probability that E will happen, or more briefly, the probability of E

Definition

Probability of an Event. The probability of an event E is the sum of the

probabilities of all sample points in E. Therefore,

0  p(E )  1, p() = 0, p(S ) = 1

Example. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head
occurs?

Solution. The sample space for this experiment is

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

If the coin is balanced, each of these outcomes would be equally likely to occur.
Therefore we assign a probability of w to each sample point. Then 4w = 1
because the sum of the probabilities must be one. Therefore w = ¼ and

p(E) = ¾.

Example. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely
to occur as an odd number. What is the probability that a number less than 4
occur on a single toss of the die?

Solution. The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. We assign a probability of

w to each odd number and a probability of 2w to each even number. Since the
sum of the probabilities must be 1, we have 9w = 1 or w = 1/9. Hence, the

15
probabilities of 1/9 and 2/9 are assigned to each odd and even number,
respectively. Therefore,

p(E) = 1/9 + 2/9 + 1/9 = 4/9

If an experiment can result in any one of n(S) different equally likely

outcomes, and if exactly n(E) of these outcomes correspond to event
E, then the probability of event A is…
n(E )
p (E ) =
n (S )

Example. If one card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards, find the
probability that the card will be a jack. Also, find the probability that it is a heart.

Solution. a) Given are n(S) = 52 n(E) = 4

n( E ) 4 1
Therefore p (E ) = = =
n(S ) 52 13

b) Given are n(S) = 52 n(E) = 13

n(E ) 13 1
Therefore p (E ) = = =
n(S ) 52 4

Example. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding

2 aces and 3 jacks.

Solution. n(S) = C (52, 5) since you will get just 5 cards from possible 52 cards
and n(E) = C (4, 2) . C (4, 3) since you can select just 2 from 4 aces and 3
from 4 jacks. Therefore

n(E ) C (4,2) • C (4,3)

p (E ) = = = 0.9 x10 −5
n(S ) C (52,5)

Example. Find the probability of throwing a prime number total with a) 1 die
and b) 2 dice. (Refer to the table below).

16
Table x. List of all possible outcomes for 2 dice tossed.

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Solution. a) n(S) = 6, n(E) = {2, 3, 5} = 3

n(E ) 3 1
Therefore p (E ) = = =
n (S ) 6 2

b) Based on the table, we have n(E) = 15 (count the underlined

prime numbers) and n(S) = 6 . 6 = 36. Therefore

n(E ) 15 5
p (E ) = = =
n(S ) 36 12

Example. find the probability of drawing 5 black cards if cards are drawn from
a deck of 52 cards without replacement.

Solution. n(S) = C (52, 5), n(E) = C(26, 5)

n(E ) C (26,5) ) 7,893,600

Therefore p (E ) = = = = 0.0240
n(S ) C (52,5) 311,875,200

Example. If 6 balls are drawn without replacement from a bag that contains 7
black and 5 white balls, what is the probability that 4 will be black and 2 white?

Solution. n(S) = C (12, 6), n(E) = C (7, 4) . C (5, 2)

n(E ) C (7,4 ) • C (5,2 ) 25

Therefore p (E ) = = = = 0.37878...
n (S ) C (12,6) ) 66

17
ADDITIVE RULES

Additive rule. IF A and B are any two events, then

p( A  B) = p( A) + p(B) − p( A  B)

If the two events A and B are disjoint events or they are mutually exclusive, then

p( A  B) = p( A) + p(B)

since p( A  B) =  = 0 .

Example. The probability that a student passes mathematics is 2/3 and the
probability that he passes English is 4/9. If the probability of passing at least one
course is 4/5, what is the probability that he will pass both courses?

Solution. If A is the event “passing Mathematics” and B the event “passing

English”. then by transposing the terms of our formula, we have

p( A  B) = p( A) + p(B) − p( A  B)

2 4 4
= + −
3 9 5
14
=
45

Example. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of

dice is tossed?

Solution. Let A be the event that 7 occurs and B the event that 11 comes up.
Now a total of 7 occurs for 6 of the 36 sample points and a total of 11 occurs for
only 2 of the 36 sample points (see table x). We therefore have

p(A) =6/36 = 1/6 and p(B) = 2/36 = 1/18

then, p( A  B) = p( A) + p(B)
1 1
= +
6 18
2
=
9

18
Example. Suppose that x is the estimated profit of a business for this year
express as a percent of last year’s profit, as given by a market analyst. The
following table summarizes all of the estimates.

x  50 50  x  75 75  x  100 100  x  125 x  125

.12 .17 .26 .29 .16

Find the probability that this year’s profit is not more than last year’s profit.

Solution. Since the events are disjoint, the probability is the sum

p( A  B  C ) = p( A) + p(B) + p(C )

= .12 + .17 + .26

= .55

Example. In a race for mayor, four candidates A, B, C, and D have probabilities

.15, .16, .24, and .42 of winning, respectively. What is the probability that A,
B, C, or D will win?

Solution. Only one candidate will win, so

p( A  B  C  D) = p( A) + p(B) + p(C ) + p(D)

= .15 + .16 + .24 + .42

= .97

Notice that this is less than 1. and thus, there is at least one other candidate in the race.

Often it is more difficult to calculate the probability that an event occurs than it is
to calculate the probability that the event does not occur. Should this be the case
for some event E, the formula that follows recommends easier solution.

If E and E’ are complementary events, then

p(E) + p(E’) = 1

Example. A coin is tossed 6 times in succession. What is the probability that at

least 1 head occurs? Let p(E’) = the probability that no head will occur.

19
 n ( E ')
Solution. p(E’) = n(E’) = 1 n(S’) = 26 = 64
n(S ')

P(E’) = 1/64, therefore p(E) = 1 – p(E’)

= 1 – 1/64

= 63/64

Example. What is the probability of throwing less than 11 with two dice?

Solution. The probability of throwing less than 11 is one minus the probability of
getting either 11 or 12 or

P(E) = 1 – p(E’)

where p(E’) is the probability of getting either 11 or 12.

P(E’) = p(11) + p(12) = 2/36 + 1/36 = 3/36 = 1/12 (see table x)

Therefore p(E) = 1 – 1/12

= 11/12

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called a conditional probability and is denoted by p(B/A). This symbol
is usually read “the probability that B occurs given that A occurs” or simply “the
probability of b, given A”.

The conditional probability of B given A, denoted by p(B/A), is

defined by the equation

p( A  B )
p ( B / A) = if p ( A)  0
p ( A)

Example. Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a

small town who have completed the requirements for a college degree. We shall
categorize them according to sex and employment status.

EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED

MALE 460 40

FEMALE 140 260

20
One of the individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout the
country to publicize the advantages of establishing new industries in the town.
What is the probability of having a male given that he is employed?

Solution. Let p(B) = the probability that a male is chosen.

P(A) = the probability that the chosen one is employed.

p( A  B )
Therefore, p (B / A) =
p ( A)

p ( A) = p( A  B ) =
600 2 460 23
= =
900 3 900 45

23
p( A  B )
p (B / A) =
23
= 45 =
p ( A) 2 30
3

Example. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is

p(D) = 0.83, the probability that it arrives on time is p(A) = 0.92, and the
probability that it departs and arrives on time is p(D  A) = 0.78. Find the

probability that a plane a) arrives on time given that it departed on time, and b)
departed on time given it has arrived on time.

p(D  A) 0.78
Solution. a) p( A / D ) = = = 0.94
p (D ) 0.83

p(D  A) 0.78
b) p(D  A) = = = 0.85
p ( A) 0.92

MULTIPLICATIVE RULES

Multiplicative Rule. If in an experiment the events A and B

can both occur, then

p( A  B) = p( A) • p(B)

Example. If two cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck with
replacement, what is the probability that the first card is an ace and the second,
a spade?

21
Solution.
p( A  B ) =
4 13 1
• =
52 52 52

Example. Suppose we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are

defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in
succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both fuses are
defective?

Solution.
5 4 1
p( A  B ) = • =
20 19 19

Example. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for
emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is available when needed is
0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In
the event of an injury resulting from a burning building, find the probability that
both the ambulance and the fire engine will be available.

Solution.
p( A  B) = p( A) • p(B) = (0.98)(0.92) = 0.9016

Example. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an

ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the probability that the first card is a red
ace, the second is a ten or a jack, and the third card is greater than 3 but less
than 7.

Solution.
p( A1  A2  A3 ) = p( A1 ) • p( A2 ) • p( A3 )

2 8 12 8
= • • =
52 52 50 5525

Example. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag
contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. On ball is drawn from the first bag and
placed unseen in the second bag. What is the probability that a ball now drawn
from the second bag is black?

Solution. let p(B1  B2 ) = one possibility, that is, black is drawn from the first

bag and black also is drawn from the second.

22
 p(W1  B2 ) = another possibility, that is, white ball is drawn from
the first and then a black ball is drawn from the second.
Then. P(E) = p(B1  B2 ) + p(W1  B2 )

 3  6   4  5  38
=    +    =
 7  9   7  9  63

REPEATED TRIALS OF AN EVENT

If p is the probability that an event will occur in one trial, then the
probability that the event will occur exactly r times in n identically
repeated trials is

p(E) = C (n, r) . pr. (1 – p)n-r

Example. Suppose that a player’s batting average is 0.25 for the season, and in
a certain game he comes to bat 5 times. What is the probability that he will get
two hits?

Solution. Some of the possible outcomes are

2 3
1 1 3 3 3 1 3
HHAAA = • • • • =    
4 4 4 4 4 4 4

2 3
3 1 3 1 3 1 3
0r AHAHA = • • • • =    
4 4 4 4 4 4 4

2 3
3 3 1 3 1 1 3
or AAHAH = • • • • =    
4 4 4 4 4 4 4

In fact, the # of ways in which he can get exactly two hits in his 5 times at bat in
this game is just the number of ways of choosing 2 things from 5 things, which is

C (5, 2) = 10

2 3
1 3
And since the probability of any one of these things to happen is    
4 4
then the probability of getting two hits will be

23
 2 3
1 3
p(E) = 10     = 0.264
4 4
Or by using our formula

p(E) = C (n, r) . pr. (1 – p)n-r

2 3
1 3
= C (5,2 )    = 0.264
4 4

Example. If the probability that a missile will hit a target is 3/5. Find the
probability of
a. Exactly 4 hits in 6 tries
b. Exactly 8 hits in 12 tries

Solution. a. Using n = 6 and r = 4 gives

p(E) = C (n, r) . pr. (1 – p)n-r

4 2
3  2
= C (6,4 )    = 0.311
5  5

b. Using n = 12 and r = 8 gives

8 4
3  2
p(E) = C (12,8)    = 0.213
5  5

Example. A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. If

the coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting two tails and one
head?

Solution. The probability of getting a head is 2/3. Using n = 3 and r = 2 gives

2 1
 2 1 2
p(E) = C (3,2 )    =
 3  3 9

24
EXERCISE NO. 1

Using probability concepts, solve for the following problems.

1. If a card Is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards, what is the

probability it will be a diamond? A red card?

2. What is the probability that a card drawn from a standard deck will be
a 5, 6, or 7? Will be a black face card?

3. What is the probability that the English spelling of the name of the
month has the letter ‘R’ in it?

4. What is the probability that a color chosen from orange, red, yellow
green, blue, indigo, and violet has the letter ‘E’ in its spelling?

5. Assume that 2 fair dice are thrown. Find the probability of throwing a
sum of a) 8 . b) 9 and 5 c) 7 or 11 d) 2, 3, or 12.

6. A poker hand of 5 cards is drawn from a deck. What is the probability

that every card will be a 10, jack, queen, king, or ace?

7. Five dogs will be in the finals of a dog show containing 8 poodles, 10

terriers and 14 bulldogs. What is the probability that none of the
finalists is a poodle?

8. If candidates P, Q , R and S are in an election and their probabilities of

winning are ½, 1/3 and 1/24 respectively. What is the probability
that S will win if there are no other candidates?

25
9. A box contains lavender, turquoise, magenta, silver and scarlet
scarves. If the probabilities of choosing on of the first four are
respectively ¼, 1/9, 1/12 and 1/18, what is the probability of getting a
scarlet scarf?

10. From past experiences, a stockbroker believes that under present

economic conditions a costumer will invest in tax-free bonds with a
probability of 0.6, will invest in mutual funds with a probability of 0.3,
and will invest in both tax-free bonds and mutual funds with a
probability of 0.15. At this time, find the probability that a customer
will invest a) in either tax-free bonds or mutual funds. b) in neither
tax-free bonds nor mutual funds.

11. If only 1 pair of dice is thrown, what is the probability that the number
will be even? What is the probability the number will have 4 letters in
its English spelling?

12. If 1 die is thrown, what is the probability that the number x on top will

satisfy x 2  22 ? Will satisfy 7 x + 3  19 ?

13. What is the probability that an integer from 1 to 20 has 3 letters in its
English spelling?

14. What is the probability of choosing a vowel if 1 letter is chosen from

the words “a quick fox jumped over the lazy brown dogs” ?

15. Three people are to be chosen randomly from a group of 12 men and
8 women. What is the probability that all 3 will be men?

26
EXERCISE NO. 2
Using probability concepts solve for the following problems.

1. If there are 10 people with June anniversaries and 6 people with

August anniversaries, what is the probability of choosing 4 people with
June anniversaries and 2 people with August anniversaries if 6 are to
be chosen?

2. The probability that a contract will go to company W is ½, to X is ¼,

and to Y is 1/20. What is the probability that none of these three gets
it?

3. The 7 dwarfs are working the forest, and the probabilities of each one
doing the most work are 1/3 for Doc, 1/5 for Grumpy, 1/6 for Happy,
1/7 for Sneezy, 1/10 for Dopey, and 1/30 for Bashful. What is the
probability that Sleepy will do the most work?

4. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck and we are told that it is red.
What is the probability that the card is greater than 2 but less than 9?

5. If the probability that a basketball team will win the conference

champion in any given year is 2/5. Find the probability that it will win
exactly 3 championships in 5 years.

6. Three men are seeking public office. Candidates A and B are given
about the same chance of winning but C is given twice the chance of
either A or B. What is the probability that C wins? What is the
probability that A does not win?

7. If a permutation of the word ”white “ is selected at random, find the

probability that the permutation a) begins with a consonant.
b) ends with a vowel.

8. A pair of dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting a) a total of 8

b) at most a total of 5.

27
9. Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck without replacement.
What is the probability that both cards are greater than two and less
than 8?

10. If three books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels,
3 books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability that a) the
dictionary is selected? B) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?

11. The probability that an American industry will be located in Munich is

0.7, the probability that it will be located in either Munich or Brussels
or both is 0.8. What is the probability that the industry will be located
a) in both cities? b) in neither city?

12. Find the probability in throwing, in 5 tosses of a coin, a) exactly 3

heads and b) at least 3 heads.

13. The probability that a boy will be on time for a meal is 0.2. Find the
probability that he will be on time a) exactly 4 times in two days. b)
at least 4 times.

14. A bag contains 3 white, 4 red and 5 black balls. Five withdrawals of 1
ball each are made, and the ball is replaced after each. Find the
probability that all will be red.

15. Out of 15 people, 8 have disease A and 7 have disease B. If 5 are

chosen, what is the probability that 3 will have A and 2 will have B?

16. If 5 balls are drawn from a bag containing 8 green and 7 yellow balls,
what is the probability that 3 will be green and 2 yellow?

28