STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

Table of Contents
STA 1311: PROBABILITY 1 (Part A) Lecture Notes .................................................................... 1
Introduction:................................................................................................................................. 1
Set Theory .................................................................................................................................... 1
Set Operations .......................................................................................................................... 2
Set Theorems............................................................................................................................ 4
Exercise 1 ............................................................................................................................. 5
Solution 1 ............................................................................................................................. 6
Probability Theory ....................................................................................................................... 7
Random Experiments ............................................................................................................... 7
Probability ................................................................................................................................ 8
Axioms of Probability........................................................................................................... 8
Basic Theorems on Probability ............................................................................................ 9
Exercise 2 ........................................................................................................................... 10
Solution 2 ........................................................................................................................... 17
Conditional Probability .......................................................................................................... 17
Independent Events ............................................................................................................ 19
Independent Repeated Trials ........................................................................................ 21
Theorem on Total Probability............................................................................................ 21
Bayes’ Formula (theorem) ................................................................................................. 22
Exercise 3 ........................................................................................................................... 23
Solution 3 ........................................................................................................................... 25
Combinatorial Analysis.............................................................................................................. 25
Exercise 4 ........................................................................................................................... 27
Solution 4 ........................................................................................................................... 27
Permutations........................................................................................................................... 27
Exercise 5 ........................................................................................................................... 30
Solution 5 ........................................................................................................................... 31
Combinations ......................................................................................................................... 31
Exercise 6 ........................................................................................................................... 34
Solution 6 ........................................................................................................................... 34
Probability using Combinatorial Analysis ............................................................................. 35
Exercise 7 ........................................................................................................................... 36
Solution 7 ........................................................................................................................... 36

Mansur Babagana
Department of Mathematical Sciences,
Bayero University, Kano
 STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

STA 1311: PROBABILITY 1 (Part A) Lecture Notes

Note: These notes are based upon a work by Mallam Hassan Adamu Shitu of Department of
Mathematical Sciences, Bayero University, Kano.

Introduction:
The subject of probability theory began on the 19th century due to the increasing demands
on Mathematicians such as Fermat, Pascal, Leibniz, and James Bernoulli, by gamblers to come
up with optimum strategies for various games of chances. Moreover, with the advent of
probability theories, it was realized that statistics could be used in drawing valid conclusions and
making reasonable decisions on the basis of analysis of data, such as sampling theory and
predictions or forecasting. The subject of statistics originated much earlier than probability and
dealt mainly with the collection, organization and presentation of data in tables and charts.
The world “probability” is often used in day to day activities to describe uncertainty
situations. For instance, we may say “Probably, I will pass this course”, “Nigeria will probably
win the A.C Nations”, etc. In all the cases, one is not certain about the possible outcomes;
however, supportive arguments/reasons of making the statements are available. Example passing
exams: hard work, brilliance, attending lectures, etc. These reasons are what are called data. The
recorded information in its original collected form is called data.
Definition 1 (Probability):
Probability can be defined as the
mathematical study of uncertainty.
It has wide application in areas such as Sciences, Agric, traffic-studies, Engineering, etc.
The study of set theory is very essential in both probability and statistics.

Set Theory
A fundamental concept in all branches of mathematics in general, is the concept of set.
Definition 2 (Set):
A set can be defined as a well-defined
collection of objects.
Examples;
• The set of students from Katsina,
• the set of local governments in Nigeria,
• set of fruits,
• set of odd numbers less than 30,
• multiples of 6, etc.

Each object in a set is called an element or a member of the set. A set is denoted by a
capital letter such as A, B, X, Y…, etc and an element by a lower case letters such as a, b, x, y…,
etc. If an element x belongs to a set X we write x ∈ X otherwise we use x ∉ X .

Notation and Describing Sets

A set can be described in two ways:
1. First, by direct enumeration of members in a curly bracket separated by a comma:
Examples
a. B = {2, 4, 6, 7} ,
b. H = {Niger,Ghana,Cameroun} , etc

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2. Second, a set can b e described by a statement or rule, popularly called set-builder

notation. Examples:
a. B = {the set of all Nigerian military head of states}
b. H = {The set of all natural numbers less than 50}
c. A = {The set of all states in Nigeria that implement Sharia law}
d. X = {Thes set of all numbers between -2 and 5} , etc.
by rule, the above sets can be described as follows
e. B = {x | x is a Nigerian military head of states}
f. H = { y : y ∈ , less than 50}
g. A = {a : a is a state in Nigeria that implement Sharia law}
h. X = {x : −2 ≤ x ≤ 5}

Type of Sets:
1. Subset: Suppose every element of a set A also belongs to a set B, that is suppose a ∈ A
implies a ∈ B . Then A is called a subset of B, or A is said to be contained in B, written as
A ⊆ B or B ⊇ A . If A is not a subset of B it is denoted by A ⊆/ B .If A ⊆ B and A ≠ B ,
then we say that A is a proper subset of A.
2. Equal Sets: Two sets are equal if both have the same elements or, equivalently, if each is
contained in the other. That is A = B if and only if A ⊆ B and B ⊆ A .
3. Universal Set: All sets under investigating in any application of set theory are assumed to
be contained in some large fixed set called the universal set usually denoted by U.
4. Null or Empty Set: A set with no elements is called the empty set or null set, and is
denoted by ∅ . Note that the null set is a subset of every set and every set is a subset of
itself; i.e. for any set A we have ∅ ⊆ A and A ⊆ A
5. Complement of a Set: Recall that all sets under consideration at a particular time are
subsets of a fixed universal set U. The complement of a set A, denoted by Ac , is the set of
elements which belong to U but which do not belong to A, that is Ac = {x : x ∈ U, x ∉ A}

Special Symbols
Some sets occur very often in mathematics, and so we use special symbols for them.
Some such symbols follow:
• = the natural numbers or positive integers: {1, 2,3, }
• = all integers; positive, negative and zero: { , −2, −1, 0,1, 2, }
• = the real numbers.
Thus we have ⊆ ⊆ .

Set Operations

Venn Diagram:
These are the pictorial representations of sets in which a rectangle is used to represent a
universal set and a circle is used to represent a sunset.

(a) Union:
The union of two or more sets is the set of all elements which belong to either of the sets
or both. It is denoted by ∪ i.e., A ∪ B = {x : x ∈ A or x ∈ B}

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A∪ B is shaded
Example:
1) If A = {x : −2 < x < 0}, B = { y : 4 ≥ y ≥ −1} then A ∪ B = {z : −2 < z ≤ 4}

(b) Intersection:
The intersection of sets is a set of all elements which belong to both sets. It is denoted by
∩ i.e., A ∩ B = { y : y ∈ A and y ∈ B}

A∩ B is shaded
Example:
2) Let H = {x : x is an Engineering student}
J = { y : y is a student from Jigawa State}, then
H ∩ J = {i : i is an Engineering student from Jigawa State}

(c) Disjoint:
If A ∩ B = ∅ , then A and B are said to be disjoint sets.
U

B
A

Example:
3) Let P = { p : p is natural number greater than 20}
Q = {q : q is counting number less than 19}, then
P ∩ Q = ∅ = {}

(d) Difference:
The set containing all elements in A which denote belong to B is called the difference of A
and B denoted by A − B or A \ B . Note that A \ B ≡ A ∩ B c ≡ A ∩ B′

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A \ B is shaded

Set Theorems
Let A, B, and C be sets, then the following statements hold for sets.
Idempotent Laws
1a. A ∪ A = A 1b. A ∩ A = A
Associative Laws
2a. (A ∪ B) ∪ C = A ∪ ( B ∪ C ) 2b. (A ∩ B) ∩ C = A ∩ ( B ∩ C )
Commutative Laws
3a. A ∪ B = B ∪ A 3b. A ∩ B = B ∩ A
Distributive Laws
4a. A ∪ ( B ∩ C ) = ( A ∪ B) ∩ ( A ∪ C ) 4b. A ∩ ( B ∪ C ) = ( A ∩ B) ∪ ( A ∩ C )
Identity Laws
5a. A ∪ ∅ = A 5b. A ∩ U = A
6a. A ∪ U = U 6a. A ∩ ∅ = ∅
Involution Law
7. (Ac )c = A
Complement Laws
8a. A ∪ A = U
c
8b. A ∩ Ac = ∅
9a. U c = ∅ 9a. ∅ c = U
DeMorgan’s Laws
10a. (A ∪ B)c = Ac ∩ B c 10b. (A ∩ B)c = Ac ∪ B c

Also not that if A ⊆ B and B ⊆ C then A ⊆ C , also the following statements hold:
(a) A∩ B = A (b) A∪ B = B

Partitions:
Definition 3 (Partition):
Let S be a nonempty set. A partition of S is a subdivision
of S into nonoverlapping, nonempty subsets. Precisely, a
partition of S is a collection { Ai } of nonempty subsets of
S such that
(i) Each a in S belong to one of the Ai
(ii) The sets of { Ai } are mutually disjoint; that is, if
Ai ≠ Aj , then Ai ∩ Aj = ∅
The subsets in a partition are called cells. Below is Venn diagram of a partition of the
rectangular set S of points into five cells, A1 , A2 , A3 , A4 , A5 .

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A1 A3
A2

A4 A5
Example:
Consider the following collection of subsets of S = {1, 2,3, ,8,9} :
(i) [{1,3,5},{2, 6},{4,8,9}]
(ii) [{1,3,5},{2, 4, 6,8},{5, 7,9}]
(iii) [{1,3,5},{2, 4, 6,8},{7,9}]
Solution:
(i) is not a partition of S since 7 in S does not belong to any of the subsets.
(ii) is not a partition of S since {1,3,5} and {5, 7,9} are not disjoint.
(iii) is a partition of S

Exercise 1
(1) Let U = { 1 3 , 0,5, − 3, −4} be the universal set of A = {− 3, 0,5} , B = { 1 3 , −4, − 3} and
C = { 1 3 , −4} . Find
(a) A ∩ B (b) B ∪ C (c) ( A ∪ B) ∩ C (d) B′ ∪ C c (e) A \ B (f) ( B ∩ C )′
(2) Let F = {x : x is an odd integer} , B = {x : x − 8 x + 15 = 0} . Show that B ⊂ A .
2

(3) Which of these sets are equal: {r , s, t}, {t , s, r}, {s, r , t}, {t , r , s}?
(4) Determine which of the following sets are equal: ∅, {0}, {∅} .
(5) Consider the following sets where U = {1, 2,3, ,8,9} : ∅ , A = {1} , B = {1,3} , C = {1,5,9} ,
D = {1, 2,3, 4,5} , E = {1,3,5, 7,9} . Insert the correct symbol ⊆ or ⊆/ between each pair of
sets: (a ) ∅, A (c) A, B e) C , D g ) D, E
(b) B, C (d ) B, E f ) C , E (h) D, U

Solution 1
A(1) U = { 1 3 , 0,5, − 3, −4}
(a) A ∩ B = {− 3, 0,5} ∩ { 1 3 , −4, − 3} = {− 3}
(b) B ∪ C = { 1 3 , −4, − 3} ∪ { 1 3 , −4} = { 1 3 , −4, − 3} = B
(c) ( A ∪ B) ∩ C = ({− 3, 0,5} ∪ { 1 3 , −4, − 3}) ∩ { 1 3 , −4}
= {− 3, 0,5, 1 3 , −4} ∩ { 1 3 , −4} = { 1 3 , −4} = C
(d) B′ ∩ C c = { 1 3 , −4, − 3}′ ∪ { 1 3 , −4}c
= {0,5} ∪ {0,5, − 3} = {0,5, − 3}
(e) A \ B = {− 3, 0,5} \{ 1 3 , −4, − 3} = {0,5}
(f) ( B ∩ C )′ = ({ 1 3 , −4, − 3} ∩ {{ 1 3 , −4})′ = { 1 3 , −4}′ = {0,5, − 3}

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A(2) F = {x : x is an odd integer} = { , −5, −3, −1,1,3,5, }

B = {x 2 − 8 x + 15 = 0} = {x : x 2 − 3x − 8 x + 15 = 0} = {x : x( x − 3) − 5( x − 3) = 0}
= {x : ( x − 5)( x − 3) = 0} = {x : x = 5 or x = 3} = {5,3}
Therefore B contains 5 and 3 which are odd integers, hence B ⊂ F

A(3) The sets are all equal; order does not change a set.

A(4) Each of the three sets is different from the other.

The set ∅ contains no element; it is the empty set.
The set {0} contains one element, the number zero.
The set {∅} also contains one element, the null set

A(5)
(a) ∅ ⊆ A (b) B ⊆/ C (c) A ⊆ B (d) B ⊆ E
(e) C ⊆/ D (f) C ⊆ E (g) D ⊆/ E (h) D ⊆ U

Answers 1
Q(1)
(a) {− 3} (b) { 1 3 , −4, − 3} (c) { 1 3 , −4} (d) {0,5, − 3} (e) {0,5} (f) {0,5, − 3}

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Probability Theory
Random Experiments
The scientist performs experiments to produce observations or measurements that will
assist him in drawing a valid conclusion. For instance, a chemist in determining the liter value of
a particular chemical carrying out titrations several times, Biologist in determining different
species of bacteria colony, agriculturalist in determining the effect of fertilizer on sorghum
species, etc.
Definition 4 (Random Experiment):
In probability, a random experiment is any
process of observations or measurement
that generates raw data. The results one
obtains from an experiment are called
outcomes.
The result of each performance depends on “chance” and therefore cannot be predicted with
certainty.
Examples:
1) tossing a coin or die
2) drawing a card or two from a shuffled deck of playing cards
3) random selection/inspection of 20 light bulbs from 100 light bulbs produced by a
company.
4) Sampling the opinion of Nigerians about the constitution of Nigeria, etc.
Definition 5 (Sample Space):
The set which consists of all the possible
outcomes of a random experiment is
called sample space, and it is usually
denoted by S. Each outcome in a sample
space is called a sample point.
Examples:
1) An experiment of rolling a die has S = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6}
2) Experiment of tossing a coin twice has S = {HH , HT , TH , TT }
3) Observation of industrial production whether it is defective or not has
S = {defective, nondefective} .
4) Experiment involving sampling of opinions of Nigerians about the review of Nigerian
constitution has S = {yes, no} , etc.
Definition 6 (Event):
An event is a subset of a sample space, i.e.
it is the set of possible outcomes.
The empty set ∅ and S are the subsets of S and hence they are events; ∅ is sometimes
called the impossible or null event, and S is sometimes called the certain or sure event
Example:
1) If a coin is toss twice, the event that only one tail comes up is given by A = {HT , TH } .
Types of Events:
1) Equally likely Events: Events are said to be equally likely if they have equal chances of
occurring.

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2) Mutually Exclusive Events: Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if they
cannot occur simultaneously. Example in tossing a coin heads and tails cannot occur at
the same time.
3) Independent Events: Events are said to be independent whenever the occurrence of one
does not in anyway affects the occurrence of the other. Example obtaining 2 and 3 in
tossing a die twice.
Combining Events:
Events can be combined to form new events using the various set operations:
(i) A ∪ B is the event occurs iff A occurs or B occurs (or both).
(ii) A ∩ B is the event occurs iff A occurs and B occurs.
(iii) Ac , the compliment of A, is the event that occurs iff A does not occur.

Probability
The probability of an event A in an experiment is supposed to measure how frequently A
is about to occur if we make many experiments/trials.
Definition 7 (Probability 2):
If an experiment can result in any one of
N different equally likely outcomes, and if
n of these outcomes together constitute
event A, then the probability P(A) of an
event A is
Number of outcomes in A
P( A) =
Number of outcomes in S
n( A) n
= =
n( S ) N
Thus, in particular, P( S ) = 1 as follows from (definition 7) above.

Example:
In rolling a fair die, what is the:
a. probability P(A) of A of obtaining at least 5
b. probability P(B) of B of obtaining an “even number”.
Solution
There six outcomes in rolling a die, i.e. S = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6} thus N = 6 .
a. A = {5, 6} , thus n( A) = 2 therefore P ( A) = 2 = 1
6 3
b. B = {2, 4, 6} , thus n( B) = 3 therefore P ( A) = 3 = 1
6 2

Axioms of Probability
Given a sample space S, with each event A of S (subset of S) there is associated a number
P(A), called the probability of A, such that the following axioms of probability are satisfied.
[P1] For every A in S, 0 ≤ P( A) ≤ 1
[P2] The entire sample space S has the probability P( S ) = 1
[P3] For mutually exclusive events A and B (i.e., A ∩ B = ∅ ) 111 P ( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P ( B)
[P3]' More generally, for mutually exclusive events A1 , A2 , A3 , .
P ( A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ ...) = P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) + P( A3 )... .

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Basic Theorems on Probability

Theorem 1: The impossible event or, in other words, the empty set ∅ has probability zero, that
is, P (∅) = 0 .
Proof: For any event A, we have A ∪ ∅ = A , where A ∩ ∅ = ∅ (i.e. A and ∅ are disjoint). By
axiom [P3],
P( A) = P( A ∪ ∅) = P( A) + P (∅)
⇒ P( A) = P( A) + P(∅)
subtract P( A) from both sides
P( A) − P( A) = P( A) + P(∅) − P ( A)
= P( A) − P ( A) + P(∅)
= P(∅)
thus P (∅) = 0 .

Theorem 2 (Complement Rule): For any event A we have and its compliment Ac in the sample
space S, we have
P ( Ac ) = 1 − P( A)

Proof: S = A ∪ Ac where A and Ac are disjoint. By axiom P[2], P( S ) = 1 . Thus, by P[3],

1 = P( S ) = P ( A ∪ Ac ) = P ( A) + P( Ac )
⇒ 1 = P ( A) + P( Ac )
subtract P( A) from both sides
1 − P ( A) = P ( A) + P ( Ac ) − P( A)
= P ( Ac )
thus P ( Ac ) = 1 − P( A) .

Theorem 3: If A ⊆ B , then P( A) ≤ P( B) .

Proof: If A ⊆ B , then, as indicated by the following Venn diagram

B is shaded
B = A ∪ ( B \ A) where A and B \ A are disjoint. Hence
P ( B ) = P ( A) + P( B \ A)
By axiom P[1], we have P( B \ A) ≥ 0 , hence P ( A) ≤ P( B) .

Theorem 4 (Addition Rule): For any two events A and B.

P ( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P( B ) − P( A ∩ B)
Proof: By the Venn diagram below (recall that A \ B = A ∩ B c and B \ A = B ∩ Ac )

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A ∪ B is shaded
A = ( A ∩ B ) ∪ ( A ∩ B)
c

∴ P( A) = P( A ∩ B c ) + P( A ∩ B)
but A ∪ B = B ∪ ( A ∩ B c )
⇒ P( A ∪ B) = P( B) + P( A ∩ B c )
but P( A ∩ B c ) = P( A ∪ B) − P( B)
⇒ P( A) = P( A ∪ B) − P( B) + P( A ∩ B)
∴ P( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B)
H/W: Show that
P ( A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) − P ( A ∩ B) − P( A ∩ C ) − P( B ∩ C ) + P( A ∩ B ∩ C )

Exercise 2
(1) Write a sample space S with equally likely outcomes for each of the following experiments
(a) A two-headed coin is tossed once.
(b) Two ordinary coins are tossed.
(c) Three ordinary coins are tossed.
(d) Five slips of paper marked with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are placed in a box. After
mixing well, two slips are drawn.
(e) An unprepared student takes a three-question true/false quiz in which he guesses the
answer to all the three questions.
(f) A die is rolled and then a coin is tossed.

(2) A ball is drawn from a box containing 6 red balls, 3 white balls and 4 green balls. Find the
probability that the ball is:
(a) green (c) not white
(b)white or red (d) white and green

(3) A card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability
that it is:
(a) a club (e) any suit except hearts
(b) a queen of hearts (f) neither a ten nor a spade
(c) a queen or a heart (g) a red king or a black ace
(d) a 7 of spade or a 5 of diamonds

(4) Two dice (green and blue) are thrown together. Find:
(a) the sample space
(b) the probability of getting a prime number with green die and an
even number with the blue die.
(c) the probability that the sum of the faces that turn up is an even
number greater than 7
(d) the probability that the sum is divisible by 3
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(5) In one of their shooting exercises, an army in Bukavu Barracks is allowed to shoot a target
three times. If we label the outcome of each shoot 0 for a miss and 1 for a hit. Find:
(a) the sample space of the experiment
(b) the probability of hitting the target once and missing it twice
(c) two consecutive misses
(d) missing the target alternately

(6) Suppose A and B are events with P ( A) = 0.6 , P( B) = 0.3 , and P ( A ∩ B) = 0.2 . Find the
probability that:
(a) A does not occur (c) A or B occurs
(b) B does not occur (d) neither A nor B occurs

(7) A sample space S consists of four elements, that is, S = {a1 , a2 , a3 , a4 } . Under which of the
following functions P does S become a probability space?
(a) P (a1 ) = 0.4, P(a2 ) = 0.3 P(a3 ) = 0.2 P (a4 ) = 0.3
(b) P (a1 ) = 0.4, P(a2 ) = −0.2 P(a3 ) = 0.7 P(a4 ) = 0.1
(c) P (a1 ) = 0.4, P(a2 ) = 0.2 P(a3 ) = 0.1 P(a4 ) = 0.3
(d) P (a1 ) = 0.4, P(a2 ) = 0 P (a3 ) = 0.5 P (a4 ) = 0.1

(8) A coin is weighted so that heads is three times as likely to appear as tails. Find P(T ) and
P( H ) where T = tails and H = heads.

(9) Consider the following table:

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Consider the following events:
A = {even number} , B = {2,3, 4,5} , C = {1, 2}
Find: (a) P( A) , (b) P( B) , (c) P(C ) , (d) P (∅) , (e) P( S )

(10) From the events A, B, C in Problem 9 above, find:

(a) P( A ∩ B) , (b) P( A ∪ C ) , (c) P( B ∩ C ) , (d) P ( Ac ) , (e) P ( B ∩ C c )

(11) Let P be a probability function on S = {a1 , a2 , a3 } . Find P (a1 ) if

(a) P (a2 ) = 0.3, and P(a3 ) = 0.5; (c) P ({a2 , a3 }) = 2 P (a1 );
(b) P (a1 ) = 2 P(a2 ) and P (a3 ) = 0.7; (d) P (a3 ) = 2 P(a2 ) and P (a2 ) = 3P(a1 ).

(12) A die is loaded in such away that each odd number is twice as likely to occur as each even
number. If E is the event that a number greater than 3 occurs on a single toss of the die,
find P ( E ) .

Solution 2
A(1)
(a) Let H = heads and T = tails, then S = {H }

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(b) S = {HH , HT , TH , TT } , where H = heads and T = tails, and the first letter indicates the
outcome of the first coin and the second letter indicates the outcome of the second coin,
thus, HT indicates the first coin turns up a head and the second coin turns up a tail.
(c) S = {HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , THH , THT , TTH , TTT }
(d) S = {1, 2,3, 4,5}
(e) Let C = correct and W = wrong, then
S = {CCC , CCW , CWC , CWW , WCC , WCW , WWC ,WWW }
(f) S = {H 1, H 2, H 3, H 4, H 5, H 6, T 1, T 2, T 3, T 4, T 5, T 6}

A(2) Let G, W, R be the events that green, white and red ball is drawn respectively,
n(G ) 4
(a) P (G ) = =
n( S ) 15
n(W ) 3 n( R ) 6
(b) P (W ) = = , P( R) = =
n( S ) 13 n( S ) 13
∴ P(white or red) = P (W ∪ R )
⇒ P((W ∪ R) = P(W ) + P( R) − P(W ∩ R)
3 6 9
= + −0 =
13 13 13
(c) P (not white) = P (W ′) = 1 − P (W ) , but P (W ) = 133
3 13 − 3 10
∴ P(W ′) = 1 − = =
13 13 13
(d) It is not possible to get a white and green ball in a single draw, hence G and W are
mutually exclusive events, i.e., G ∩ W = ∅ ; therefore P (G ∩ W ) = P(∅) = 0 .

A(3) Let the sample space be S , then S consists of the four suits, club (C), diamonds (D),
hearts (H) and spades (S), where each suit contains 13 cards which are numbered 2 to 10,
and a jack (J), queen (Q), king (K), and ace (A). The hearts (H) and diamonds (D) are red
cards, and the spades (S) and clubs (C) are black cards. Below is a tabular view of the
sample space
A K Q J 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
♥H ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
♦D ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗

♠S ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗

♣C ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗

Let H = heart, D = diamond, S = spade, and C = club. Then

H = { AH , K H , QH , J H ,10 H ,9 H ,8H , 7 H , 6 H ,5H , 4 H ,3H , 2 H }, n( H ) = 13
D = { AD , K D , QD , J D ,10 D ,9 D ,8D , 7 D , 6 D ,5D , 4 D ,3D , 2 D }, n( D) = 13
S = { AS , K S , QS , J S ,10S ,9S ,8S , 7 S , 6 S ,5S , 4 S ,3S , 2S }, n( S ) = 13
C = { AC , K C , QC , J C ,10C ,9C ,8C , 7C , 6C ,5C , 4C ,3C , 2C }, n(C ) = 13
S = {H , D, S , C}, n( S ) = 52
(a) The event of a club is C = { AC , K C , QC , J C ,10C ,9C ,8C , 7C , 6C ,5C , 4C ,3C , 2C }

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n(C ) 13 1
∴ P(of a club) = P(C ) = = =
n( S ) 52 4
(b) The event of queen of hearts is {QH }, n({QH }) = 1
n({QH }) 1
∴ P({QH }) = =
n( S ) 52
(c) The event of a queen is Q = {QH , QD , QS , QC }, n(Q ) = 4 and
the event of a heart is H = { AH , K H , QH , J H ,10H ,9 H ,8H , 7 H , 6 H ,5H , 4 H ,3H , 2H }
the event of a queen or a heart is Q ∪ H and by the addition rule
P (Q ∪ H ) = P (Q) + P( H ) − P(Q ∩ H )
n(Q) 4 1
P(Q) = = =
n( S ) 52 13
n( H ) 13 1
P( H ) = = =
n( S ) 52 4
Q ∩ H = {QH }
1
P (Q ∩ H ) = P ({QH }) =
52
1 1 1 4 + 13 − 1 16 4
P (Q ∪ H ) = + − = = =
13 4 52 52 52 13
(d) The event of 7 of spades is {7 S } and the event of 5 of diamonds is {5D } . Thus the event
of 7 of spades or 5 of diamonds is {7 S } ∪ {5D } . But {7 S } ∩ {5D } = ∅ , thus,
P ({7 S } ∪ {5D }) = P ({7 S }) + P({5D }) − P({7 S } ∩ {5D })
1 1 2 1
= + −0 = =
52 52 52 26
(e) The event of a heart is H. The probability of a heart is P( H ) = 13 52 . So by the
complement rule, the probability of drawing a card that is not a suit of heart is
13 1 3
P ( H ′) = 1 − P ( H ) = 1 − = 1− =
52 4 4
Alternatively,
the event of any suit except hearts is H ′ = {D, S , C} and n( H ′) = 39 . Hence,
n( H ′) 39 3
P( H ′) = = =
n( S ) 52 4
(f) The event of neither a ten nor a spade is an event of not a ten and not a spade. Let the
event of a ten be T = {10 H ,10 D ,10S ,10C } , the event of a spade is S. So the event of not a
ten and not a spade is T ′ ∩ S ′ , but by DeMorgan’s law T ′ ∩ S ′ = (T ∪ S )′ . Therefore,
P (T ′ ∩ S ′) = P ( (T ∪ S )′ ) = 1 − P (T ∪ S )
P (T ∪ S ) = P(T ) + P( S ) − P(T ∩ S )
4 13 1
P (T ) = , P ( S ) = , P (T ∩ S ) = P({10S }) =
52 52 52
4 13 1 4 + 13 − 1 16
⇒ P(T ∪ S ) = + − = =
52 52 52 52 52

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∴ P(T ′ ∩ S ′) = 1 − P (T ∪ S )
16 52 − 16
= 1− =
52 52
36 9
= =
52 13
(g) Let RK = {K H , K D } be the event of a red king, and BA = { AS , AD } be the event of a black
ace. Hence the event of a red king or a black ace is RK ∪ BA . Thus
P ( RK ∪ BA ) = P ( RK ) + P ( BA ) − P( RK ∩ BA )
2 2
= + −0
52 52
4 1
= =
52 13

A(4)
(a) The sample space is given below:
Blue Die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
Green Die

2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

(b) Let the event of a prime number with the green die and an even number with the blue die
be denoted by B = {(1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (2, 2), (2, 4), (2, 6), (3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 6), (5, 2), (5, 4), (5, 6)}
thus n( B) = 12 ; there are total of 36 possible outcomes. Therefore,
12 1
P( B) = =
36 3
(c) Let C be the event “Sum of faces is an even number greater than 7”, thus
C = {(2, 6), (3,5), (4, 4), (4, 6), (5,3), (5,5), (6, 2), (6, 4), (6, 6)} , thus n(C ) = 9 . Therefore,
9 1
P(C ) = =
36 4
(d) Let D be the event “sum is divisible by 3”, then
D = {(1, 2), (1,5), (2,1), (2, 4), (3,3), (3, 6), (4, 2), (4,5), (5,1), (5, 4), (6,3), (6, 6)} , thus
n( D) = 12 . Therefore,
12 1
P( D) = =
36 3
A(5)
(a) The sample space is, S = {(1,1,1), (1,1, 0), (1, 0,1), (1, 0, 0), (0,1,1), (0,1, 0), (0, 0,1), (0, 0, 0),}
n( S ) = 8
(b) Let H be the event of “hitting once and missing twice”. Thus,
3
H = {(1, 0, 0), (0,1, 0), (0, 0,1)}, n( H ) = 3 . Therefore, P( H ) =
8

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(c) Let K be the event “Two consecutive misses”. Thus K = {(1, 0, 0), (0, 0,1)}, n( K ) = 2 .
2 1
Therefore, P( K ) = =
8 4
(d) Let T be the event “missing the target alternatively”. Thus T = {(0,1, 0)}, n(T ) = 1 .
1
Therefore P (T ) =
8
A(6)
(a) By the complement rule, P (not A) = P ( Ac ) = 1 − P( A) = 1 − 0.6 = 0.4
(b) By the complement rule, P (not B) = P( B c ) = 1 − P( B ) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
(c) By the addition rule, P ( A or B) = P( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B)
= 0.6 + 0.3 − 0.2 = 0.7
(d) “Neither A nor B” is the same as “not A and not B”. That is Ac ∩ B c = ( A ∪ B )c . Therefore
P (neither A nor B) = P ( ( A ∪ B)c ) = 1 − P( A ∪ B) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3
A(7)
(a) The sum of the points in S exceed one hence P does not define S to be a probability space.
(b) P(a2 ) < 0 , P does not define S to be a probability space.
(c) Each value is nonnegative and their sum does equal one, hence P does define S to be a
probability space.
(d) P define S to be a probability space.

A(8) Let P (T ) = p , then P ( H ) = 3 p and S = {H , T }

⇒ P(T ) + P( H ) = 1
⇒ p + 3p =1
1
⇒ 4 p = 1, ⇒ p=
4
1
⇒ P(T ) =
4
1 3
⇒ P( H ) = 3 p = 3 ⋅ =
4 4

A(9) For any event E, find P(E) by summing the probabilities of elements of E.
(a) A = {2, 4, 6} , so P ( A) = 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.6
(b) P ( B) = 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.8
(c) P (C ) = 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.4
(d) P (∅) = 0
(e) S = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6} , so P ( S ) = 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.1 = 1

A(10)
(a) A ∩ B = {2, 4}, P( A ∩ B) = 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5
(b) A ∪ C = {1, 2, 4, 6}, P( A ∪ C ) = 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.7
(c) B ∩ C = {2}, P( B ∩ C ) = 0.3

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(d) Ac = {1,3,5}, P( Ac ) = 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.2 = 0.4 or

P ( Ac ) = 1 − P( A) = 1 − 0.6 = 0.4
(e) B ∩ C c = {2,3, 4,5} ∩ {1, 2}c = {2,3, 4,5} ∩ {3, 4,5, 6} = {3, 4,5}
P ( B ∩ C c ) = 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.5

A(11) We use the fact that P(a1 ) + P(a2 ) + P(a3 ) = 1

(a) P (a1 ) + P(a2 ) + P(a3 ) = 1
P(a1 ) + 0.3 + 0.5 = 1
⇒ P(a1 ) + 0.8 = 1
⇒ P(a1 ) = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2
(b) P (a1 ) + P(a2 ) + P(a3 ) = 1
2 P(a2 ) + P(a2 ) + P(a3 ) = 1
3P(a2 ) + 0.7 = 1
⇒ 3P(a2 ) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3
0.3
⇒ P(a2 ) = = 0.1
3
but P (a1 ) = 2 P(a2 ) = 2(0.1) = 0.2
(c) P (a1 ) + ( P(a2 ) + P(a3 ) ) = 1
P (a1 ) + 2 P(a1 ) = 1
⇒ 3P(a1 ) = 1
1
⇒ P(a1 ) =
3

A(12) The sample space of rolling a die is S = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6} , let E be the event of rolling a
number greater than 3, thus E = {4,5, 6} . Let the probability of even numbers be p, then
the probability of odd numbers is 2p. P (1) = P(3) = P(5) = 2 p, P(2) = P(4) = P(6) = p ,
and P (1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6) = 1
⇒ 2p + p + 2p + p + 2p + p =1
⇒ 9p =1
1
⇒ p=
9
2
⇒ P(1) = P(3) + P(5) = , and
9
1
P(2) = P(4) + P(6) =
9
P ( E ) = P(4) + P(5) + P(6)
1 2 1 4
= + + =
9 9 9 9

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Answers 2
Q(2)
(a) 4 (b) 9 (c) 10 (c) 0
13 13 13

Q(3)
(a) 1 (b) 1 (c) 1 (d) 1 (e) 3 (f) 9 (g) 1
4 52 52 26 4 13 13

Q(4) Q(5)
(b) 1 (c) 1 (d) 1 (b) 3 (c) 1 (d) 1
3 4 3 8 4 8

Q(6)
(a) 0.4 (b) 0.7 (c) 0.7 (d) 0.3

Q(9)
(a) 0.6 (b) 0.8 (c) 0.4 (d) 0 (e) 1

Q(10)
(a) 0.5 (b) 0.7 (c) 0.3 (d) 0.4 (e) 0.5

Q(11) Q(12)
(a) P (a1 ) = 0.2 (b) P (a1 ) = 0.2 (c) P (a1 ) = 1 (d) P(a1 ) = 0.1 P( E ) = 4
3 9

Conditional Probability
Probabilities are sometimes affected when specification or condition is attached on the
entire sample space or the event in question.
Example 1:
Consider an experiment in which a box containing 10 defective and 8 non-defective items.
Two items are taking at random. Find the probability that both items are defective: (a) with
replacement (b) without replacement.
Solution:
Let A = {the first item is defective} and B = {the second item is defective}
10 5
(a) P ( A) = P( B) = =
18 9
10 5
(b) P ( A) = = , when the second item is drawn the number of defective reduced from 10 to
18 9
9
9; thus P( B) = .
17
Definition 8 (Conditional Probability):
Often it is required to find the probability of an event B
under the condition that an event A occurs. This
probability is called conditional probability of B given A
and is denoted by P( A | B) . In this case A serves as a new
(reduced) sample space, and that probability is the

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 STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

fraction of P( A) which corresponds to A ∩ B , provided

P( A) ≠ 0 . Thus
P( A ∩ B)
P ( B | A) = [ P( A) ≠ 0].
P( A)

Similarly, the conditional probability of A given B is

P( A ∩ B)
P( A | B) = [ P( B ) ≠ 0].
P( B)
Example 2:
Two fair dice are tossed, the outcome being recorded as ( x1 , x2 ) , where xi is the outcome
of the i th die, i = 1, 2 . Let event A = {( x1 , x2 ) : x1 + x2 = 9} and A = {( x1 , x2 ) : x1 > x2 } . Find (a)
P( A ∩ B) (b) P( B | A) (b) P( A | B)
Solution:
The sample space S has 36 points A = {(3, 6), (4,5), (5, 4), (6,3)}
B = {(2,1), (3,1), (3, 2), (4,1), (4, 2), (4,3), (5,1), (5, 2), (5,3), (5, 4), (6,1), (6, 2), (6,3), (6, 4), (6,5)}
A ∩ B = {(5, 4), (6,3)} , n( S ) = 36 , n( A) = 4 , n( B) , and n( A ∩ B) = 2 ; thus
n( A) 4 1 n( B) 15 5
P( A) = = = , P( B) = = =
n( S ) 36 9 n( S ) 36 12
n( A ∩ B ) 2 1
(a) P ( A ∩ B) = = =
n( S ) 36 18
1
P( A ∩ B) 9 1
(b) P ( B | A) = = 18 = =
P( A) 1 18 2
9
1
P( A ∩ B) 1 12 1 2 2 2
(c) P ( A | B) = = 18 = ∗ = ∗ = =
P( B) 5 18 5 3 5 3 ∗ 5 15
12
Example 3:
A fair die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 5, 4, or 6 on the first toss and 2,
3, 4, 5 on the second toss.
Solution:
Let H be the event “5, 4, or 6 on the 1st toss”, and
K be the event “2, 3, 4, 5 on the second toss”
3 1 4 2
∴ P( H ) = = , P( K ) = =
6 2 6 3
P( H ∩ K )
P( K | H ) =
P( H )
∴ P( H ∩ K ) = P( K | H ) ∗ P( H )
2 1 1
= ∗ =
3 2 3

Theorem 5 (Multiplication Rule/Theorem): If A and B are events in a sample space S and

P( A) ≠ 0 , P( B ) ≠ 0 , then
P ( A ∩ B) = P( A) ∗ P( B | A) = P( B) ∗ P( A | B)
Proof:
Solve as an exercise.
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 STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

Independent Events
In example 3 above it can be noted that P( K | H ) = P( K ) = 2 3 , this is due to
independency. Events A and B in a probability space S are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one of them does not influence the occurrence of the other. More specifically, B is
independent of A if P( B ) is the same as P( B | A) .Now substitute P( B) for P( B | A) in the
Theorem 5 above (multiplication theorem) that P ( A ∩ B) = P( A) ∗ P( B | A) . This yields
P ( A ∩ B) = P( A) ∗ P( B) .
Definition 9 (Independent Events):
Events A and B are independent if P ( A ∩ B) = P( A) ∗ P( B) ;
otherwise they are dependent.

Example:
Two men A and B fire at target. Suppose P( A) = 13 and P( B) = 15 denote their
probabilities of hitting the target. (We assume that the events A and B are independent.) Find the
probability that:
a) A does not hit the target b) Both hit the target
c) One of them hits the target d) Neither hits the targetr

Solution:
a) By the complement rule,
1 2
P (not A) = P( Ac ) = 1 − P( A) = 1 − = .
3 3
b) Since the events A and B are independent (Definition 9 above),
1 1 1
P ( A and B ) = P ( A ∩ B) = P( A) ⋅ P( B) = ⋅ =
3 5 15
c) By the addition rule (Theorem 4),
1 1 1 7
P ( A or B ) = P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B) = + − =
3 5 15 15
d) By DeMorgan’s Law, “neither A nor B” is the compliment of A ∪ B . Hence,
P (neither A nor B) = P ( ( A ∪ B)c ) = 1 − P( A ∪ B) = 1 − =
7 8
15 15

Theorem 6:
Suppose A and B are independent events. Then Ac and B c are independent events.

Proof:
Goal: P ( Ac ∩ B c ) = P( Ac ) ⋅ P( B c )
Let P( A) = x and P ( B) = y . Then P ( Ac ) = 1 − x and P ( B c ) = 1 − y . Since A and B are
independent events P ( A ∩ B) = P( A) ⋅ P( B) = xy . Thus by Theorem 4 (addition rule)
P( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B) = x + y − xy
By DeMorgan’s law, (A ∪ B)c = Ac ∩ B c ; hence

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P( Ac ∩ B c ) = P ( ( A ∪ B)c )
= 1 − P( A ∪ B ) = 1 − ( x + y − xy )
= 1 − x − y + xy
On the other hand,
P ( Ac ) ⋅ P ( B c ) = (1 − x) ⋅ (1 − y )
= 1 − x − y + xy
Thus, P ( A ∩ B ) = P( A ) ⋅ P( B ) , and so A and B c are independent events.
c c c c c

Exercise:
Corollary: Suppose A and B are independent events. Show that
(a) A and B c are independent events.
(b) Ac and B are independent events.

Example:
Let A be the event that a man will live 10 years, and let B be the event that his wife lives
10 more years. Suppose P( A) = 14 and P( B) = 13 . Assuming A and B are independent events; find
the probability that, in 10 years
a) Both will be alive. b) At least one will be alive
c) Neither will be alive d) Only the wife will be alive
Solution:
a) We seek P( A ∩ B) . Since A and B are independent events,
1 1 1
P ( A ∩ B) = P( A) ⋅ P( B ) = ⋅ = .
4 3 12
b) We seek P( A ∪ B) . By the addition rule,
1 1 1 1
P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B) = + − =
4 3 12 2
c) By DeMorgan’s Law, “neither A nor B” is the compliment of A ∪ B .
P ( Ac ∩ B c ) = P ( ( A ∪ B ) c ) = 1 − P ( A ∪ B ) = 1 − =
1 1
2 2
Alternately, we have P ( A ) = 4 and P ( B ) = 3 ; and, since A and B c are independent,
c 3 c 2 c

3 2 1
P ( Ac ∩ B c ) = P( Ac ) ⋅ P( B c ) = ⋅ =
4 3 2

d) We seek P ( Ac ∩ B) . Since Ac and B are also independent,

3 1 1
P( Ac ∩ B) = ⋅ =
4 3 4

The multiplicative rule can be extended to three A, B, and C independent events as

follows
P ( A ∩ B ∩ C ) = P( A) ⋅ P( B | A) ⋅ P ( C | ( A ∩ B) )
In general, for A1 , A2 , , An pair wise mutually independent then
P ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ∩ An ) = P( A1 ) ⋅ P( A2 ) ⋅ ⋅ P( An )
or
P ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ∩ An ) = P( A1 ) ⋅ P( A2 | A1 ) ⋅ P( A3 | A1 ∩ A2 ) ⋅ P( A3 | A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 )
P( An | A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ∩ An −1 )

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Independent Repeated Trials

Here we are concerned with probability spaces which were associated with an experiment
repeated a finite number of times such as the tossing of a coin three times.

Example:
A fair coin is tossed three times. Find the probability that there will appear:
(a) three heads, (b) exactly two heads, (c) exactly one head, (d) no heads.

Solution:
Let H denote a head and T a tail on any toss. The sample space S of the tosses is
S = {HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , THH , THT , TTH , TTT }
However, since the result of any one toss does not depend on the result of any other toss, the
three tosses are three independent trials in which P( H ) = 12 and P (T ) = 12 on any trial. Then,
(a) P (three heads) = P ( HHH ) = 12 ⋅ 12 ⋅ 12 = 18
(b) P (exactly two heads) = P( HHH or HTH or THH )
= 12 ⋅ 12 ⋅ 12 + 12 ⋅ 12 ⋅ 12 + 12 ⋅ 12 ⋅ 12 = 83
(c) As in (b), P(exactly one head) = P (exactly two tails) = 83
(d) As in (a ), P (no heads) = P(TTT ) = 18

Example:
A certain football team wins (W) with probability 0.6, loses (L) with probability 0.3, and
ties (T) with probability 0.1. The team plays three games over the weekend.
(a) Determine the elements of the event A that the team wins at least twice and does not lose;
and find P(A).
(b) Determine the elements of the event B that the team wins, loses, and ties in some order;
and find P(B).

Solution:
(a) A consists of all ordered triples with at least two W’s and no L’s. Thus
A = {WWW ,WWT ,WTW , TWW }
Since these events are mutually exclusive,
P ( A) = P(WWW ) + P(WWT ) + P(WTW ) + P(TWW )
= (0.6)(0.6)(0.6) + (0.6)(0.6)(0.1) + (0.6)(0.1)(0.6) + (0.1)(0.6)(0.6)
= 0.216 + 0.36 + 0.36 + 0.36 = 0.324 = 32.4%
(b) Here B = {WLT , WTL, LWT , LTW , TWL, TLW } . Each element in B has the
probability (0.6)(0.3)(0.1) = 0.018 . Hence
P ( B) = 6(0.018) = 0.108 = 10.8% .

Theorem on Total Probability

Suppose a set S is the union of mutually disjoint subsets A1 , A2 , , An , that is, suppose, the
sets A1 , A2 , , An form a partition of the set S. Furthermore, suppose E is any subset of S. Then,
as illustrated below for the case n = 3 ,

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A2 A3
A1

S
E = E ∩ S = E ∩ ( A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ∪ An )
= ( E ∩ A1 ) ∪ ( E ∩ A2 ) ∪ ∪ ( E ∩ An )
Moreover, the n subsets on the right in the above equation, are also mutually disjoint, that
is form a partition of E.

Theorem 7 (Total Probability):

Let E be an event in a sample space S and let A1 , A2 , , An , be mutually disjoint events
whose union is S. Then
P ( E ) = P ( A1 ) P( E | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( E | A2 ) + + P( An ) P( E | An )
The equation in theorem 7 above is called the law of total probability. It must be
emphasize that the sets A1 , A2 , , An are pairwise disjoint and their union is all if S, that is, the
A’s form a partition of S.

Example:
A factory uses three machines X, Y, Z to produce certain items. Suppose:
(1) Machine X produces 50% of the items of which 3% are defective
(2) Machine Y produces 30% of the items of which 4% are defective
(3) Machine Z produces 20% of the items of which 5% are defective
Find the probability p that a randomly selected item is defective

Solution:
Let D denote the event that an item is defective. Then by the law of total probability,
P( D) = P( X ) P( D | X ) + P(Y ) P( D | Y ) + P( Z ) P( D | Z )
= (0.50)(0.03) + (0.30)(0.04) + (0.20)(0.05)
= 0.037 = 3.7%

Bayes’ Formula (theorem)

Let A1 , A2 , An be a partition of the sample space S and let E be an event associated with
S. Supposed we seek for
P( Ak ∩ E ) P( Ak ) P( E | Ak )
P ( Ak | E ) = =
P( E ) P( E )
P( Ak ) P ( E | Ak )
=
P( A1 ) P ( E | A1 ) + P( A2 ) P( E | A2 ) + + P( An ) P( E | An )

P( Ak ) P( E | Ak ))
= n

∑ P( A ) P( E | A )
i =1
i i

The above rule is called Bayes’ rule or Bayes’ formula, after an English mathematician
Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). If we think of the events A1 , A2 , An as possible causes of the event
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E, then Bayes’ formula enables us to determine the probability that a particular one of the A’s
occurred, given that E occurred.

Example:
Consider the factory in the example above. Suppose a defective item is found among the
output. Find the probability that it comes from each of the machines, that is, find
(1) P( X | D) , i.e. the defective is from machine X
(2) P(Y | D) , i.e. the defective is from machine Y
(3) P( Z | D) , i.e. the defective is from machine Z

Solution:
Recall that P ( D ) = P ( X ) P ( D | X ) + P (Y ) P( D | Y ) + P ( Z ) P( D | Z ) = 0.037 . Therefore, by
Bayes’ formula,
P( X ) P( D | X ) (0.50)(0.03) 15
(1) P ( X | D) = = = = 40.5%
P( D) 0.037 37
P(Y ) P( D | Y ) (0.30)(0.04) 12
(2) P (Y | D) = = = = 32.5%
P( D) 0.037 37
P( Z ) P( D | Z ) (0.20)(0.05) 10
(3) P ( Z | D) = = = = 27.0%
P( D) 0.037 37

Exercise 3
(1) A box contains 10 screws, 3 of which are defective. Two screws are drawn at random. Find
the probability of the event that
(a) neither of the 2 screws is defective,
(b) the second item is defective give that the first is replaced,
(c) one defective and one non defective.

(2) Urn I contains 1 white and 3 black balls, Urn II contains 3 white and 2 black balls, and Urn
III contains 4 white and 1 black balls. An urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn form
it. Given that the ball drawn is black, what is the probability that Urn I was chosen.

(3) Three balls are drawn successively from a box containing 6 red balls, 4 white balls and 5 blue
balls. Find the sample space S, hence or otherwise find the probability that
(a) They are drawn in the order white, red and blue,
(b) are of different colours,
(c) at least 2 white balls are drawn.

(4) In a certain university, 25 percent of the students failed mathematics, 15 percent failed
chemistry, and 10 percent failed both mathematics and chemistry. A student is selected at
random
(a) If the student failed chemistry, what is the probability that he or she failed
mathematics?
(b) If the student failed mathematics, what is the probability that he or she failed
chemistry?
(c) What is the probability that the student failed mathematics or chemistry?
(d) What is the probability that the student failed neither mathematics nor chemistry?

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(5) Let A and B be events with P( A) = 0.3 , P( A ∪ B) = 0.5 , and P ( B) = p . Find p if:
(a) A and B are disjoint,
(b) A and B are independent,
(c) A is a subset of B.

(6) A coin is loaded so that heads are four times as likely as tails. If the coin is tossed three times,
determine the sample space, hence find the probability of getting:
(a) all heads
(b) two tails and a head (not necessary in that order)

(7) A city is partition into wards A, B, C having 20 percent, 40 percent, and 40 percent of the
registered voters, respectively. The registered voters listed as Democrats are 50 percent in A,
25 percent in B, and 75 percent in C. A registered voter is chosen randomly in the city.
(a) Find the probability that the voter is a listed Democrat.
(b) If the registered voter is a listed Democrat, find the probability that the voter comes
from ward B.

(8) Refer to (Q7) above. Suppose a ward is chosen at random, and then a registered voter is
randomly chosen from the ward.
(a) Find the probability that the voter is a listed Democrat.
(b) If the voter is a listed Democrat, what is the probability that the voter came from ward
A?

(9) In City University, students from departments of Biology, Chemistry, Mathematics, and
Physics consist of 60 percent, 40 percent, 40 percent, and 45 percent women respectively. The
Faculty of Science population is 30 percent from Biology, 25 percent from Chemistry, 25
percent from Mathematics, and 20 percent from Physics. A student from Faculty of Science is
chosen at random.
(a) Find the probability that the student is a woman.
(b) If the student is a woman, what is the probability that she is from chemistry
department?

(10) Refer to (Q9) above. Suppose one of the four departments is chosen at random, and then a
student is randomly chosen from the department.
(a) Find the probability that the student is a woman.
(b) If the student is a woman, what is the probability that she is from chemistry
department?

(11) A company produces light bulbs in three factories A, B, C.

(a) Factory A produces 40% of the total number of bulbs, of which 2% are defective
(b) Factory B produces 35% of the total number of bulbs, of which 4% are defective
(c) Factory C produces 25% of the total number of bulbs, of which 3% are defective
A defective bulb is found among the total output. Find the probability that it came from
(a) Factory A,
(b) Factory B,
(c) Factory C.

(12) Refer to (Q11) above. Suppose a factory is chosen at random, and one of its bulbs is
randomly selected. If the bulb is defective, find the probability that it came from
(a) Factory A,
(b) Factory B,
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(c) Factory C.

Solution 3
Q(1) Q(2) Q(3)
(a) 7 (b) 0.30 (c) 7 5 (a) 4 (b) 421 (c) 2
15 15 9 91 455 13

Q(4) Q(5)
(a) 2 (b) 2 (c) 0.30 (d) 0.70 (a) 0.2 (b) 2 (c) 0.5
3 5 7

Q(6) Q(7) Q(8)

(a) 64 (b) 12 (a) 0.5 (b) 0.2 (a) 0.5 (b) 1
125 125 3

Q(9) Q(10)
(a) 0.47 (b) 0.213 (a) 0.4625 (b) 0.216

Q(11) Q(12)
(a) 0.271 (b) 0.475 (c) 0.254 (a) 2 (b) 4 (c) 1
9 9 3

Combinatorial Analysis
Definition 10 (Combinatorial Analysis):
Combinatorial analysis is a method for determining, without
direct enumeration, the number of possible outcomes of a
particular experiment or event or the number of elements ina
particular set
In many random experiments where the sample space is not large, counting the sample
points is not difficult. However, problems/difficulties arise where direct enumeration or counting
becomes practically impossible or one becomes tedious when dealing with experiments with
large sample points, e.g. tossing a coin 8 times etc. This task can be facilitated by the use of some
basic notions and results from elementary combinatorial analysis, which could be called a
counting technique (sophisticated way of counting).

Product Rule Principle (fundamental principle of counting): Suppose an event E can

occur in m ways and, independent of this event, an event F can occur in n ways. Then
combinations of events E and F can occur in m ⋅ n ways.

Cleary this principle can also be extended to three or more events. That is, suppose E1 can
occur n1 , then a second event E2 can occur in n2 ways, then a third event E3 can occur in n3
ways and so on. Then all of the events can occur in n1 ⋅ n2 ⋅ n3 ⋅ ways.

Example:
Suppose a password consists of 4 characters, the first 2 being letters in the (English)
alphabet and the last 2 being digits. Find the number n of:
(a) Passwords
(b) Passwords beginning with a vowel
Solution:

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(a) There are 26 ways to choose each of the first 2 characters and 10 ways to choose
each of the last 2 characters. Thus by the product rule
n = 26 ⋅ 26 ⋅10 ⋅10 = 67, 600 .
(b) Here there are only 5 ways to choose the first character. Hence
n = 5 ⋅ 26 ⋅10 ⋅10 = 13, 000 .

Example:
A student has 5 different books that he wishes to arrange side by side. How many
different arrangements are possible?
Solution:
There are 5 decisions (events) to be made, one for each space which will hold a book. To
select a book for the first place, the student has 5 choices, for the second place, 4 choices (one
book has already been put in the first place), for the third place, 3 choices, and so on. By product
rule, we see that the number of different arrangements is 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 = 120

Example:
There are 5 bus lines from city A to City B and 4 bus lines from city B to city C. Find the
number n of ways a person can travel by bus:
(a) from A to C by way of B,
(b) round-trip from A to C by way of B,
(c) round-trip from A to C by way of B without using a bus line more than once.
Solution:
(a) There are 5 ways to go fro A to B and 4 ways to go from B to C; hence, by the product
rule, n = 5 ∗ 4 = 24 .
(b) There are 20 ways to go from A to C by way of B and 20 ways to return, Thus, by product
rule, n = 20 ∗ 20 = 400 .
(c) The person will travel from A to B to C to B to A. Enter these letters with connecting
arrows as follows:
A B C B A
There are 5 ways to go from A to B and 4 ways to go from B to C. Since a bus line is not
to be used more than once, there are only 3 ways to go from C back to B and only 4 ways
to go from B back to A. Enter these numbers above the corresponding arrows as follows:
5 4 3 4
A B C B A
Thus, by the product rule, n = 5 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 4 = 240

Definition 11 (Factorial):
The product of the positive integers 1 to n inclusive occurs
very often in mathematics and hence it is denoted by the
special symbol n! read “n factorial”. That is,
n ! = 1 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 (n − 2)(n − 1)n
= n(n − 1)(n − 2) 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
In other words, n! may be defined by
1! = 1 and n ! = n ⋅ (n − 1)!
It is also convenient to define 0! = 1.

Examples:
(a) 2! = 2 ⋅1 = 2 ; 3! = 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 = 6 ; 4! = 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 = 24 ; 5! = 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 = 120

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8! 8 ⋅ 7 ⋅ 6! 8! 8 ⋅ 7 ⋅ 6! 12 ⋅11⋅10 ⋅ 9! 12!
(b) = = 8 ⋅ 7 = 56; = = 8 ⋅ 7 = 56; 12 ⋅11 ⋅10 = =
6! 6! 6! 6! 9! 9!
12 ⋅11⋅10 1 12!
(c) = 12 ⋅11 ⋅10 ⋅ =
3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 3! 3!9!
n(n − 1) (n − r + 1)(n − r )(n − r − 1) 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 n!
(d) n(n − 1) (n − r + 1) = =
(n − r )(n − r − 1) 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 (n − r )!
n(n − 1) (n − r + 1) 1 n! 1 n!
(e) = n(n − 1) (n − r + 1) ⋅ = ⋅ =
r (r − 1) 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 r ! (n − r )! r ! r !(n − r )!

Exercise 4
16! 14! 8! 10!
(1) Compute: (a) , (b) , (c ) , (d )
14! 11! 10! 13!

(n + 1)! n! (n − 1)! (n − r + 1)!

(2) Simplify: (a) , (b) , (c ) , (d )
n! (n − 2)! (n + 2)! (n − r − 1)!

(3) Suppose a password consists of 4 characters where the first character must be a letter of the
(English) alphabet, but each of the other characters may be a letter or a digit. Find the number
of :
(a) passwords (b) passwords beginning with one of the 5 vowels.

(4) Suppose a code consists of 2 letters followed by 3 digits. Find the number of:
(a) codes (b) codes with distinct letters (c) codes with the same letters

(5) There are 6 roads between A and B and 4 roads between B and C. Find the number n of ways
a person can drive:
(a) from A to C by way of B,
(b) round-trip from A to C by way of B,
(c) round-trip from A to C by way of B without using the same road more than once.

Solution 4
Q(1) Q(3)
(a) 240 (b) 2184 (c) 1 (d) 1 (a) 1,210,056 (b) 233,280
90 1716

Q(4) Q(5)
(a) 676,000 (b) 650,000 (c) 26,000 (a) 24 (b) 576 (c) 360

Permutations
Definition 11 (Permutations):
Any arrangement of a set of n objects in a given order is called
a permutation of the objects (taken all at a time). Any
arrangement of any r ≤ n of these objects in a given order is
called an r permutation or a permutation of the n objects
taking r at a time

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Consider, for example, the set of letters a, b, c, there are 6 permutations of the 3 letters namely,
abc, bac, cab, acb, bca, cba.

The number of permutations of n objects taking r at a time will be denoted by

P(n, r ) or n Pr

Theorem 8 (Permutation Formula):

The number of permutations of n objects taking r at a time
n!
(a) without repetition is P (n, r ) =
(n − r )!
r
(b) and with repetitions is n

Proof:
(a) The first element of an r permutation (without replacement) of n objects can be chosen in
n different ways; following this, the second element in the permutations can be chosen in
n − 1 ways; ways; and, following this the third element in the permutation can be chosen
in n − 2 ways. Continuing this manner, we have the rth (last) element in the r permutation
can be chosen in n − (r − 1) = n − r + 1 ways. Thus, by the product rule principle, we have
P(n, r ) = n(n − 1)(n − 2) (n − r + 1)
and
n(n − 1)(n − 2) (n − r + 1)(n − r )! n!
n(n − 1)(n − 2) (n − r + 1) = =
(n − r )! (n − r )!
Thus,
n!
P (n, r ) =
(n − r )!
(b) The first element of an r permutation (with replacement) of n objects can be chosen in n
different ways; the object is then replaced before the next object is chosen; following this,
the second element in the permutations can also be chosen in n ways and then replaced;
and, following this the third element in the permutation can be chosen in n ways and then
replaced. Continuing this manner, we have the rth (last) element in the r permutation can
be chosen in n ways. Thus, by the product rule principle, we have
r times
n⋅n⋅n n = nr

Example:
Suppose 8 people enter an event in the recent Olympics. Assuming there are no ties, in
how many ways could the gold, silver, and bronze medals be awarded.
Solution:
Using the formula for P (n, r ) , with n = 8 and r = 3
8!
P (8,3) =
(8 − 3)!
8! 8 ⋅ 7 ⋅ 6 ⋅ 5!
= =
5! 5!
= 8 ⋅ 7 ⋅ 6 = 336

Example:
Three cards are chosen in succession from a deck with 52 cards.3 Find the number of
ways this can be done
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 STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

(a) with replacement, (b) without replacement.

Solution:
(a) Since each card is replaced before the next card is chosen, each card can be chosen in
52 ways. Thus, there is
52(52)(52) = 523 = 140, 608
is the number of different ways of choosing the cards with replacement.
(b) Since there is no replacement, the first card can be chosen in 52 ways, the second in
51 ways, and the last card in 50 ways. Thus,
P (52,3) = 52(51)(50) = 132, 600
is the number of different ways of choosing the cards without replacement.

Corollary: The number of permutations of n different objects taken all at a time is equal to n!
Proof: Solve as an exercise.

Example:
In how many ways can a team manager introduce the 11 players of a football team to the
public.
Solution:
In 11! = 39,916,800 different ways

Theorem 9(Permutations with repetitions):

The number of permutations of n objects of which n1 are alike, n2 are alike, …, nr are
alike is
n!
P(n; n1 , n2 , , nr ) =
n1 !n2 ! nr !

Example:
Find the number m of seven letter words that can be formed using the letters of the word
“BENZENE”.
Solution:
We seek the number of permutations of seven objects of which three are alike, the three
E’s, and two are alike, the two N’s. By theorem 9 above,
7! 7 ⋅ 6 ⋅ 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
m = P(7;3, 2) = = = 420
3!2! 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 ⋅ 2 ⋅1

Theorem 10 (Circular Permutation)

The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is (n − 1)!.

Example:
Find the number n of ways that 7 people can arrange themselves:
(a) in a row of 7 chairs,
(b) around a circular table.
Solution:
(a) The 7 people can arrange themselves in a row in n = 7 ∗ 6 ∗ 5 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗1 = 7! ways.
(b) One person can sit at any place at the circular table. The other 6 people can then
arrange themselves in n = 6 ∗ 5 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗1 = 6! ways around the table.

Example:
Suppose repetitions are not allowed.

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(a) Find the number n of three-digit numbers that can be formed from the six digits: 2, 3,
5, 6, 7, 9.
(b) How many of them are even?
(c) How many of them exceed 400?
Solution:
There are 6 digits, and the three-digit number can be pictured by
444, 444, 444.
in each case, write down the number of ways that one can fill each of the positions.
(a) There are 6 ways to fill the first position, 5 ways for the second position. And 3 ways
for the third position. This may be pictured by: 464, 454, 444. Thus,
n = 6 ∗ 5 ∗ 4 = 120 .
Alternately, n is the permutations o 6 things taken 3 at a time, and so
n = 6 P3 = P(6,3) = 6 ∗ 5 ∗ 4 = 120
(b) Since the number must be even, the last digit must be either 2 or 4. Thus, the third
position is filled first and it can be done in 2 ways. Then there are 5 ways to fill the
middle position and 4 ways to fill the first position. This may be pictured by:
444, 454, 424. Thus, n = 4 ∗ 5 ∗ 2 = 40 of the numbers are even.
(c) Since the numbers must exceed 400, they must begin with 5, 6, 7, or 9. Thus, we first
fill the first position and it can be done in 4 ways. Then there are 5 ways to fill the
second position and 4 ways to fill the third position. This may be pictured by:
444, 454, 444. Thus, n = 4 ∗ 5 ∗ 4 = 80 of the numbers exceed 400.

Exercise 5
(1) A multiple-choice test consists of 10 questions each permitting a choice of four alternatives.
In how many different ways can a student check off his/her answers to these questions?

(2) A televised debate will include 4 women and 3 men as finalists.

(a) In how many ways can the finalists be seated in a row of 7 chairs?
(b) In how many ways can the finalists be seated if the men and women are to be
alternated?

(3) Find the number n of permutations that can be formed from all the letters of each word:
(a) QUEUE (c) PROPOSITION
(b) COMMITTEE (d) STATISTICS

(4) Six boys and two girls are to sit together on a bench. In how many ways can they arrange
themselves if:
(a) The girls do not sit next to each other?
(b) The girls sit next to each other?

(5) Eight women and two men are to sit at a round table. Find the number of ways if
(a) no restriction is imposed
(b) two men must sit next to each other

(6) For many years, the state of Tokunbo used three letters followed by three digits on its car
license plate.
(a) How many different license plates are possible with this arrangement?
(b) When the state ran out of new plates, the order was reversed to three digits followed
by three letters. How many additional plates were then possible?

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(c) Several years ago, the plates prescribed in (b) were used up. The state then issued
plates with one letter followed by three digits and then three letters. How many plates
does this scheme provide?

(7) How many ways can 5 boys and 4 girls sit in a row if the boys and the girls must alternate

(8) In how many ways can 9 books be arranged on a shelf if

(a) any arrangement is possible,
(b) four particular books must always stand together,
(c) three particular books must occupy the ends.

n −1
(9) ∗ Show that n Pr = Pr + n −1Pr −1 ∗ r

(10) For what value of n is n P2 = 20

Solution 5
Q(1) Q(2)
410 = 1,048,576 (a) 5040 (b) 144

Q(3) Q(4)
(a) 30 (b) 45,360 (c) 1,663,200 (d) 50,400 (a) 30,240 (b) 5040

Q(5)
(a) 9! = 362,880 (b) 8! = 40,320

Q(6)
(a) 263(103) = 17,576,000 (b) 103(263) = 17,576,000 (c) 264(103) = 456,376,000

Q(7) Q(8) Q(10)

2880 (a) 9! = 362,880 (b) 17,280 (c) 4320 n=5

Combinations
Definition 12 (Combinations):
Suppose we have a collection of n objects. A combination of
these n objects taking r at a time is any selection of r of the
objects where order does not count. In other words, an r
combination of a set of n objects is any subset of r elements.
In permutation, the order in which the objects are arranged is very essential. Thus abc is a
different permutation from bac or bca. But in combination, the order in which the objects are
arranged does not count. Thus abc, bac, and bca are the same combination.
The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is denoted by
⎛n⎞
C (n, r ) or nCr or ⎜ ⎟
⎝r⎠
Example:
Find the number of combinations of four objects, a, b, c, d, taking three at a time.
Solution:

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Each combination consisting of three objects determines 3! = 6 permutations of the

objects in the combination as in the table below.
Combinations Permutations
abc abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba
abd abd, adb, bad, bda, dab,dba
acd acd, adc, cad, cda, dac, dca
bcd bcd, bdc, cbd, cdb, dbc, dcb
Thus, the number of combinations multiplied by 3! equals the number of permutations. That is,
P (4,3)
C (4,3) ⋅ 3! = P(4,3) or C (4,3) =
3!
But P(4,3) = 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 = 24 and 3! = 6. Thus, C (4,3) = 4 , which is noted in the table above.

Theorem 11 (Combination Formula):

The number of combinations of n objects taking r at a time is without repetition is
⎛n⎞ n P (n, r ) n Pr n!
⎜ ⎟ = C = C ( n, r ) = = =
r ! r !(n − r )!
r
⎝r⎠ r!
and the number of combinations with repetitions is
⎛ n + r − 1⎞ n + r −1 (n + r − 1)! (n + r − 1)!
⎜ ⎟= Cr = C (n + r − 1, r ) = =
⎝ r ⎠ r !(n + r − 1 − r )! r !(n − 1)!

Example:
How many different committees of 3 people can be chosen from a group of 8 people?
Solution:
Since the order in which the members of the committee are chosen does not effect the
result, use combination to get
⎛8⎞ 8! 8 ⋅ 7 ⋅ 6 ⋅ 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
⎜ ⎟= = = 56 .
⎝ 3 ⎠ 5! 3! (5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1) ⋅ (3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1)

Example:
From a group of 30 employees, 3 are to be selected to work on a special project.
(a) In how many different ways can the employees be selected?
(b) In how many different ways can the group of 3 be selected if it has already been decided
that a certain employee must work on the project
(c) In how many ways can a (nonempty) group of at most 3 employees be selected from the
group of 30?
Solution:
(a) The number of 3-element combinations from a set of 30 elements must be found. Using
the formula gives
⎛ 30 ⎞ 30!
⎜ ⎟= = 4060.
⎝ 3 ⎠ 27! 3!
There are4060 ways to select the project group.

(b) Since one employee has already been selected to work on the project, the problem is
reduced to selecting 2 more employees from the 29 employees that are left:
⎛ 29 ⎞ 29!
⎜ ⎟= = 406.
⎝ 2 ⎠ 27! 2!
In this case, the project group can be selected in 406 different ways.

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(c) Here “at most 3” means “exactly 1 or exactly 2 or exactly 3.” We shall find the number of
ways to select employees for each case.
Case Number of Ways
⎛ 30 ⎞ 30! 30 ⋅ 29!
1 ⎜ ⎟= = = 30
⎝ 1 ⎠ 29! 1! 1⋅ 29!

⎛ 30 ⎞ 30 ⋅ 29 ⋅ 28!
2 ⎜ ⎟= = 435
⎝2⎠ 1⋅ 2 ⋅ 28!

⎛ 30 ⎞ 30 ⋅ 29 ⋅ 28 ⋅ 27!
3 ⎜ ⎟= = 4060
⎝3⎠ 1 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 27!
The total number of ways to select at most 3 employees will be the sum 30 + 435 4060 =
4525.

Example:
Out of 6 economists, 7 sociologists and 5 medical doctors, a committee consisting of 3
economists, 4 sociologists and 2 medical doctors is to be formed. How many different
committees can be formed if
(a) any economist, sociologist and medical doctor can included,
(b) 1 particular economist and 2 particular sociologists must be in the committee.
(c) 2 particular economists and 1 particular medical doctor cannot be in the committee.
Solution:
(a) Ways of selecting an economists is 4C3
Ways of selecting sociologists is 7C4
Ways of selecting a medical doctor is 5C2
Therefore total number of ways = 6C3 × 7C4 × 5C2
= 20 × 35 × 10
= 7000
(b) 2 economists can be selected out of 5 in 5C2
2 sociologists out of 5 can be selected in 5C2
2 medical doctors out of 5 can be selected in 5C2
Therefore total number of possible selections = 5C2 × 5C2 × 5C2
= 3 × 5C2 = 3 × 10
= 30 ways
(c) 3 economists can be selected out of 4 in 4C3
4 sociologists out of 7 can be selected in 7C4
2 medical doctors out of 4 can be selected in 4C2
Therefore total number of possible selections = 4C3 × 7C4 × 4C2
= 4 × 35 × 6
= 840 ways

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 STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

Exercise 6
(1) A store has 8 different mystery books. Find the number of ways a customer can buy 3 of the
books.

(2) A box contains 6 blue socks and 4 white socks. Find the number of ways two socks can be
drawn from the box where:
(a) there are no restrictions,
(b) they are different colors,
(c) they are to be the same color.

(3) A bag contains 5 purple, 4 green, and 9 black marbles, how many samples of 3 can be drawn
in which:
(a) all the marbles are black
(b) exactly 2 marbles are black

(4) A class contains 9 boys and 3 girls. Find the number of ways a teacher can select a committee
of 4.

(5) Repeat (Q4) above, but where

(a) there are to be 2 boys and 2 girls,
(b) there is to be exactly 1 girl,
(c) there is to be at least 1 girl.

(6) A woman has 11 close friends. Find the number of ways she can invite 5 of them to dinner.

(7) Repeat (Q6) above, but where 2 of the friends are married and will not attend separately.

(8) Repeat (Q6) above, but where 2 of the friends are not on speaking terms and will not attend
together.

(9) For what value of n is 3 ⋅ n +1C3 = 7 ⋅ nC2 ?

(10) *Prove the following properties on combinations

(a) nCn = nC0 = 1
(b) nCn − r = nCr
n +1
(c) nCr + nCr +1 = Cr +1

(11) Padlocks with digit dials are often referred to as “combination locks.” According to the
mathematical definition of combination, is this an accurate description? Why or why not?

Solution 6

Q(1) Q(2) Q(3) Q(4)

56 (a) 56 (b) 24 (c) 21 (a) 84 (b) 324 495

Q(5) Q(6) Q(7) Q(8) Q(9)

(a) 108 (b) 252 (c) 369 462 240 252 n=6

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 STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

Probability using Combinatorial Analysis

Distinguishing b/w Permutations & Combinations:
The formulas for permutations and combinations are very useful in solving probability
problems. Any difficulty in using these formulas usually comes from being unable to differentiate
between them. Both permutations and combinations give the number of ways to choose r objects
from set of n objects. The differences between permutations and combinations are outlined
below.

Permutations Combinations
Different orderings or arrangements of Each choice or subset of r objects
the r objects are different gives 1 combination. Order within
permutations the r objects does not matter

P (n, r ) =
n! ⎛n⎞ n!
(n − r )! ⎜ ⎟=
⎝ r ⎠ (n − r )!r !

Clue words: Arrangement, Schedule, Order Clue words: Group, Committee, Sample
Many probability problems involve numbers that are too large to determine the number of
outcomes easily, even with a tree diagram. In such cases, we can use combinations. For example,
if 3 engines are tested from a shipping container packed with 12 engines, 1 of which is defective,
what is P(E), the probability that the defective engine will be found?
(a) How many ways are there to choose the sample of 3 from the 12 engines?
(b) How many ways are there to choose a sample of 3 with 1 defective and 2 good engines?
(c) What is n(E) in this experiment if E is the event “The defective engine is in the sample”?
(d) What is n(S) in this experiment?
(e) Find P(E).

Solution:
(a) The number of 3-element combinations from a set of 12 elements must be found. Using the
formula gives
⎛12 ⎞ 12! 12! 12 ⋅11 ⋅10 ⋅ 9!
⎜ ⎟= = = = 4 ⋅11⋅ 5 = 220 .
⎝ 3 ⎠ (12 − 3)!3! 9!3! 9!⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
There are 220 ways to select the 3 engines.

(b) There is 1 way to choose 1 defective engine and there are 11C2 = 55 ways to choose 2 good
engines from the remaining 11 engines. Thus by the product rule
1
C1 ⋅ 11C2 = 1⋅ 55 = 55 .
There are 55 ways to choose 1defective and 2 good engines.

(c) If E is the event “The defective engine is in the sample” then n(E) is the number of different
combinations of sample that contain the defective engine, which is just the number calculated
in (b) above. Thus,
n( E ) = 55

(d) The sample space S is the number of all possible combinations of choosing 3 engines from 12
engines, which is just the number calculate in (a) above. Thus,
n( S ) = 220

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 STA 1311 Probability I (Part A) Lecture notes

(e) By the definition of probability,

n( E ) 55 1
P( E ) = = = = 0.25 = 25%
n( S ) 220 4
The above example illustrates how combinations is used to some problems in probability.

Exercise 7
(1) From a shelf containing 8 Biology, 4 Chemistry, 7 Mathematics and 6 Physics books, 5 books
are picked at random. What is the probability that:
(a) 2 Mathematics, 3 Physics books are selected?
(b) no Chemistry book is selected?

(2) A box contains 9 white, 6 blue and 5 green balls. 4 balls are drawn at random without
replacement. Find the probability that:
(a) all the balls drawn are white,
(b) 3 are blue and 1 is green,
(c) at least one is green.

(3) Five cards are drawn at random from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards. Find the
probability that:
(a) 4 are kings
(b) 3 are twos and 2 are queens
(c) 2 are of one suit 3 are of another suit
(d) at least one diamond is obtained.

Solution 7
Q(1) Q(2)
(a) 2 (b) 969 (a) 42 (b) 20 (c) 232
253 2530 1615 969 323

Q(3)
(a) 4 (b) 1 (c) 429 (d) 7411
54145 108290 4165 9520

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