Chapter

4(1) Probability
4(1).01 Introduction
In our daily life very often we use the term Probability', Probability or a tendency 'uncertain1ty of
chance' refers to the probable movements or to occuring an event, Everyday, we express our thinkings
using the sentences like:
() Everyone who lives willmust die.
() We cannot live without breathing.
(ii) It may rain today.
The idea of probability is expressed. In the above three sentences. In the first sentence we see a must,
that is a certain incident or event. Every certain event is an obvious proclaimation of probability. Here
value of the probability is 1.
In the second sentence, the probability of living without breathing is zero. Now if we consider the thírd
sentence, we realize that there lies a probability to rain today. Here we do not know the exact
probability but the probability lies between 0to 1.
ExampBe+ If we throw a coin or a die th¹n it will fall down. After it's falling down it will show one
o iis two sides for coin. And for die, it will show one of it's six sides. For coin, the two sides are head
and tail. Therefore, the probability of head (or tail) is
For die the six sides are one dot, two dot, three dot, four dot, five dot and six dot.
Therefore, the
probability of havingone-dot or two dot or three dot, or four dot or five dot or six dot is.

4(1),02 Set Theory

The concept of set theory is verity needed for the development and
It isso important that now -a-days set theory is considered as a understanding of probability theory.
Here we are providing a brief còncept of set theory. fundamental tool of probability theory.
Definition of set :A set is a well defined collection of objects or
properties. Each object comprising a set is called element (or point orelements
member)
having certain specified
of the set.
Usually a set is denoted by capital (or upper case) letter and the
second bracket. elements are placed within a braces or
Example : The vowels of English
Description of a set : A set may bealphabet.
described by three different approaches. These approaches are
described below:
(a) Tabular Form :
We may list the elements of the set within a
braces or second bracket,
e.g., A= {1, 3, 5, 7,9}
(b) By description :We may describe all the
numbers less than 10} elements of any set A in words, e.g.. A = {AIl the odd'
(c) By Notation : By using natation we
e.g, A= {x |x is an odd number < 10] may also describe a set,
Finite set: A set is called a finite set if it
Examples (1) :Letters, in Bengali contains a finite number of elements.
2) The vowels of English alphabet. alphabet.
Infinite set: Aset is known as an infinite set if it contains an infinite number of elements.
 Business Sttistic
Probability 4(1)-2

A = (x|x> 100) number greaterthan 100and Tis read as such that.

Example : of.allthe
readas : Ais a set Universe) : consideration in a given
I or experiment
Itis (space under contain (r
Universal set of all possible objects set is denoted by U 2
outcomes are 1, 2, 3,(Omega).
universe. A universal
The arrangement
called universal set or space
die our possible 4, 5
and 6.
discusssn)is experiment of throwing a 2. 3, 4, 5, 6).
Example : In the experiment, U= (1, Ais defined to be a
of the set Bthen contains A!
Therefore universal set in this
set Ais also an clement
in B'or B subset of
element of a containcd
Subset : If every AcBor BcAand we read as 'A is
Band is denoted by (2, 4, 6) and B (1, 2.3, 4, 5, 6}
Example : Let A=
of Bie., ACB of another set Bif Ais a subset of Bbut Bis
then Ais called a subset
said to be a proper subset is apropersubset of B,
set'A' is A A
write AcBto indicateThen A is a proper subset of Bbecause
A
Proper Subset : Generally,
A. we
not asubsct of (2, 4, 6) and B= (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
Example :IfA= of A Therefore, A cB.
Dot that
subset of Bbut B is
Equal sets : equility of sets if they contain exactly he
Equivalent or
are said to be equivalent orequal sets or
Two sets Aand B
Band B CA They may be written as A=B.
called equal sets and be written as A-
elerents,ieA C Bare
same B= (4,7, 1]then A and
Example :IfA = (1, 4, 7}and
denotcd by read as phi) and
B.
Empty (or Null) set : set or null set. It is
elementis called an empty
Aset which cotains no empty set is a sub set of any set.
isalso kaown as -set The having 3 eyes} class or
Example :A= (xx is a man membérs are also set themselves individually is called a
Family of sets : A set whose letters A, B, Cetc.
script
family of sets. Usually, it is denoted by
Example : A = ({1). (3), (13)}possible subsets of a given set is known as the class of subsets or
Class of subsets : The set of all
power sct of the given set. {2,4)]
Example : Let S= (2,4) then the power set P(S) = I{} (2). (4}. in the power set.
subsets
Ifaset contains n elements then there shall be 2" number of between subsets and the
Venia Diagram : The diagram by which we can show the relationships
comespondíng universal set is called venn-diagram. It was introduced first by an English logician John
Venn.
AVenn iagram ís adevice which represents aset as aportion of aplane. It provides visual portrayed
f varicus relationshíps among the sets. It is drawn as where the rectangle represents the universal set
and the circkes represent the other sets.

Fig: Venn diagram.

Compleroent of aet: Ifaset A is asubset of the universal set Uthen the
respect toUis the al clements that are in Uset not in A. The complement of A with
complement of a set Ais denoted by
Example : IfA= (1,2,3,4, 5) and U=(.2,3,4, 5,6, 7) hen A
=(6, 7).
Business Sttistics
Probability 4(1)-3
1).03 Set Operations
rhere are a number Of set operation by which we may have new sets with
two or wemore
here, our discussion is only on binary operations, i.e., the operations in where dealgiven
with sets.
onlykut
two
givensets. The operations we shall consider here., are union, intersection and difference of two given
Sets.
('gjon of sets If A and B be two sets then the union of A and B is a set that contains a1 ne
lements which are in A or B or in both. The union of A and B is denoted as AJB.

B
A Here, the shaded area is AUB.

AUB

Fig. Venn diagram of AUB.

Example :IfA= (1, 3, 5), B= (2, 4) then AUB (1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
Intersection of sets : If A and B be any two sets then the intersection of A and B is another set
whose eléments belong to both A and B. That is, the common elements of Aand B constitute the
intersectionof A and B. The intersection of two sets A andB is expresse as AB or AbB.

B
Here, the shaded region is AB.

ANB
Fig: Venn diagram of AnB.
Example :Let A={1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and B= (2, 4, 6} . AnB =(2, 4}
all elements that
Set difference: The difference between two sets A and Bis such a set that contains
are in Abut not in B. The set difference between Aand B.is denotedby AB.

B
Here, the shaded areais A-B.
A

(A-B)
Fig: Venn diagram of A-B.
Example : Let A= {1, 2, 3,4,5) and B=(2, 4, 6) A-B= (1,3,5) i
Disjoint (Mutually Exclusiye) Setsi: When two sets-A-and B_havelno elenent in common
then the sets Aand Bare called disjoin or mutually exclusive sets. Th thjs case, ArB= always.
Example : IfA=(1,3,5) and B2,4,6) then Aand B, are disjoint sets.
Event space : The class of all events associat dwithgiveD experiment is definedto be the event
Space. An event space is generally denoted by script letters A, B etc
Example : Let us consider the tossing of a fair coin:
ere, sample space, 2= (H, T}H for head and T for tail
Therefore, the event space, A=(H, T, S2, }
Probabiljy )4 Business Sttistics
Rules (Laws) for Set Operations :
BOA
()Commulative laws : () AUB = BUA, (iu} AnB=
2 ASoiative laws :() AuBUC) =(AUB)C, (i) AnBOC) = (AnBc
(3) Distribution Laws : U(AnC)
)AUBC) =(AUB)n(AUC), (ii) A n (BUC) = (AOB) intersection
to the
Demorgan' Law : The laws state that if AUB is cqual
(9Demorgaa's
() of the
Awith the complement of B an
of Aand the complement of B.
that the complement of ArB is equal to the union complemera
of the cornplemerscf
Symbially. () (AUB) =ANB i) ANB-AUB
(S) ldempotent laws : () AUA =A (i) AnA =A
(O ldeatity laws AU =A, Ano = (ii) AUQ =9, An2 = A
(7) Comnplemetary laws
@AUAAg. AnÁ =, (ii) (AS = A, = , 6=2
498 Some Topics Related with Probability
seful and neoessary to have the concept or idea of some topics for a clear-cut
probabiity. The related understanding cf
Business Sttistics Probability 4(1)-5

()
Equally ikely Events : The outcomes of a trial or experiment are said to be equally ikey
if each of them have equal chance to be occured.
Example : In case of tossing afair coin head and tail are equally likely events.
Mutually Exclusive Events : If the happening of any of the events excludes the happening
of all the other then the events (or cases) would be termed as mutually exclusive events.
Examples : () If a die is thrown up then any of the six possible outcomes will appear. n u
case, more than one outcome cannot appear at the same time.
(i) The six of a newborn.
(k) NOn-mutually exclusive events : When two or more events have common elements intWo2
mutually exclusive events. In other words, the
Tandom experiment then these are called non AnB . In this case, P(AnB) #0.
events A and B are called non mutually exclusive if
B are non mutually exclusive events.
Example : If A={2, 4, 6} and B =(3, 6), then A and random experiment S
possible outcomes of á
Exhaustive Events : The total number of all in case oI
the number of all pOssible outcomes,
known as exhaustive events. For example.
throwing a die, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and6 create an exhaustive event not affected by any other set of
events is
( Independent Events: If the occaurance of a set of independent events. For example, if we
known as
events in any way, then the set of events is draw. 2nd draw and 3rd would be independent of
throw a die three times, the results of the lst
each other. by.the
Events : If the occurance or non-occurance of an event in a trial is affected if we
n) Dependent example,
are said to be dependent events. For
other subsequent trials then the events the probability of drawing a red ball in
the first
consider 10 balls in a box where 5 are red, then red ball in the
5 If we do not return the ball back then the probability of drawing a
draw is o10
sebond draw is
event implies the non-occurance of that
Complementary Events : The complement of ancontains
the complement of an event E those points of the sample space
event. Therefore,
Eis denoted by F. Both E and F are
which are not in E. The complement of event
complement of each other.
Onother words, A event "A Occurs" and the event "A does
not occur" are called complementary
events. The "event A does not occur" denoted by A (read as A bar) or A' (read as A prime) or
A°(read as A complement). It is important to note.
That P(A) +P(A)=l’P( l-P(A).
(p)/Sample space : The set or collection of all possible outcomes of.a random experiment is
possible.
known as sample space. It is usually denoted by capital letters. And each and every
outcome in asample spaceis called sample point.
Example:If we consider the experiment with throwing a die, then the sample space S= (1,2,
3, 4, 5, 6} and each of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6 is known as sample point.
() Favourable outcomes (or cases): The number of outeomes that results the happening of
a desired event are known as favourable outcomes of that event. For example, if we have 10 balls
in a box of which 5 are red then the favourable outcomes of gettinga red ball is5.
(r) Null event : An event having no sample point is called a null event and is denoted by .

B. STAT-43
 Business Sttistics
Prababij -6
4oDitterent Approachesprobability
of Probability introducedfrom more
than
happen. It's
300 years
were started to be
he theory and definition related to will value lies
ago. Probability is a number that describes the chance that something event will occur. There
(chance) an follows:
between zero and one, inclusive, describing the relative possibility are as
are various approaches to define probability, The principal approaches
(a) Classical (or priori) approach.
(b) Relative frequency (or Emperical approach)
(c) Axiomatic approach.
(a) Classical or Priori Approach : this approach probability is
probability. By outcomes. That ís, the
The classical approach is the earlist approach for defining number of possible
defined as the ratio of favourable outcomes to the total
probability of an event.
Number of favourable outcome
P=
Total number of possible outcomes (i.e., favourable) outcomes, then the
of these
Consider that in an experiment the event Acontains n(A) of outcomes. This is also:
total number
probability of A is given by P(A)= n(A) n(S)"
where n(S) isthe
consideration.
known as priori definition as it is based on prior a king in a draw from a pack of 52 cards,
probability of getting
Example : If we want to know the
then total number of cases (or outcomes), n(S)=52
Total number of kings, n(A}=4
Where A is the event of getting a king
4
K(S) 52 13
Draybacks (limitations) There are also some limi<ations of.efassical approach of probability.
LPhgimitations are as follows :
(i) If the nymber of trials is infinity then clssícal defiitión cannòt be used.
G) When the possible outcomes are not ~quall kely then this definition can provide nothing e.g.,
considering a bias coin.
(ii) The corcept 5foqually likely outgames is essentilly based ori the concept of probability that we
are trying to efine.
('v) In case o some pracicatsituatyóns his dejinition cannot be
ony the probabiljgof iving birth of an njant girl per day in applicable. For example, if we want to
be used. Dhaka City then this definition cannot
(b) Relative Freqyenty or Eperical Äpproaçh : From
have an overall idea bout probabity but that may not be true classical approach of
frequency approach we take dedjsion of get the in practical probability we
frequency approach is also knowh as emperical orvalup of probability from past situations. In relative
experience. The relative
posterior approach as the measure
calculated from emperical or (Preious) statistical findingg
of
Interms of a formula :
probability is
Probability of happening an eyent Number offimes events
If an experiment be rekeatedn(S) times Tptalnumber of occured in past
then the limiting value of the Tatio of theánd observations
favourablofe outcomeAof event Ais
repeatations ofthe experiment fis called the the number
times
Mathematically, P(A) =n Llm n(A) probability of the 0Ccurancehappens repeated n(A)
of A. to the total times,
(So n
(S) number of
 Probability4(1)-7
Business Sttistics

The relative frequency f(A) has the follow properties :

aP(A) lies between 0and 1, i.., 0sP (A) S1
G) When P (A)= 1,A occurs cach and every trial in n (S)repeatations.
(i) When P (A)= 0, Anever occurs in any trial of n(S) repeatations. combined relative frequency is P(AUB)
mutually exclusiye events and their
(iv) If A and B are two P(B) are the relative frequency of events A ad
then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B). Where P(A) and
respectively.
Limitations : A few limitations of relative frequency approach is as follows :
infinite number of times.
() It may not be practiciable to repeat an experiment
(ii) Our desired limit
Lim n(A) may not exist.
n (S)-’o n (S)
experiment.
may be not easy always to ensure identical condition in repeatations of the
(1) It introduced the
Approach : Russian Mathematician A.N. Kolmogorv (1933) theory. Here the
(c) Axiomatic This approach is mathematical and based on set
axiomatiC approach of probability. tollows :
probability is based on some postulates or axioms. The axioms are as
calculation of
The probability of an event A, P(A) is a real number such that 0 < P(A) <1.
() entire space.
probability of the entire space is one; i.e., P(S) =1. Where S indicates the
(1) The probability
be a sequence of n-mutually exclusive or disjoint events then the
(m) IfAj Ag, ----, A, denoted as P(A,UA,U---UA). read as A
or A, or ----or A, is
of the happening of either A, and
union A, union ---- union A
n

P(AUA,UUA,) =P (A) - P(A,) +--tP (An) = P(A)

and emperical approach of probability.
The axiomatic pfabability combines both the classicai
4(107/Difference between priori and posterior probability
There are following difference between priori and posterior probability
Priori probability Posterior probability
probability is the limiting'value of
(i) Priori probability is defined as the ratio of| () Posterior happens
times an event
favourable outcomes to the total number of the ratio of the number of
to the total number of repeatations of the
possible outcomes.
experiment.
(ii) If the event A contains n(A) of (i.e.,|(ii) If an experiment be repeated n(S) times and
favourable) outcomes and n(S) is the total|the favourable outcome of an event A is repeated
of
number of outcomes in an experiment, then the n(A) times, then the limiting value of the ratio
n(A) the number times A happens to the total number
probabilityy of A is P(A) = of repeatations of the experiment is called the
n(S)
posterior probability of the occurance of A.
Lt n(A)
That is, P(A)=
n(S)’oo n(S)
(ii) The total sample points of the sample space (iii) The total sample points of the sample space
is finite in random experiment. is infinite.
experimental
(iv) It is count on the basis of the result of the (iv) It is count on the basis of the
experiment. informations.
 Business Sttistics
Probability 4(1)-8
and P(A)= 1
4(1).08 Meaning of P(A) = 0 E.
S in random experiment occurrences belong to the
Let Ais an event belongs to the sample spaceoccurrances of which n(A) event
Suppose, the sample space S contains n(S)
A. probability, we have,
According to the definition of priori
n(A)
P(A) =
n(S)
Now,P(A) = 0
n(A) =0
n(S)
n(A) =0 impossible event.
an
That is, there is no element in event A. That is implies, Ais
Again, P(A) = 1
n(A) =1
n(S) equal. Thatt is implies, Ais
a
’ n(A)= n(S)
sample space are
elements of event Aand
That is, the total number of
certain event.
several stages. Each
4(1).09 Tree Diagram calculation. It involve
diagram is a graph that is helpful in organizingbranches of a tree diagram are weighted by
Tree stage of the problem. The
Segment in the tree is one
probabilities. have two children. Natuarlly, they are curious about
decision to
Example :A newly married couple girls.
whether their children will be boys or children. In order to find the sample space of this
of having two useful to
Let us consider the experiment a child is a boy and G denote that a child is a girl. Then it is
experiment, we let B denote that figure.
construct the tree diagram shown in the following

First child Secondchild Samplespace outeome

BB

BG

GB

Fig. Atree GG
diagram of the family having two
 Business Sttistics Probability 4(1)-9
A1).10 Permutation and. Combinations
Permutation : Permutation of some elements or objects are such an arrangement in where every
object is considered as different and distinguishable in accordance with their placement. Permutations are
designed mainly for finding out the total number of ways in which a set of objects or elements can be
arranged.
Example Let us consider 3 different books X, Y and Z. By permutation we can arrange these books
as follows:
-lst 2nd 3rd Arangement
selection selection selection
-XYZ
X
NX
XM7
N
N
Y -XZY
Z -YXZ
Y -YZX
X
Y. -ZXY
Z
Y X -ZYX

Fig. Tree diagram

Mathematically, we may solve this problem : how 3books X, Y, Z,can be arranged as follows?
3books can be arranged in 3p. ways. Here, Pfor permutation and
3! _3 x 2 x 1 6
P (3- 3)! 0! 1
= 6" [0! =1]
If we have n books and we have to arrange all of them the number of possible ways,
n!
1.
P(n- )! Where, n!=n(n- 1) (n - 2)(n - 3) ---..3.2.
And if from n books we have to arange r books (where r < n) then the number of p0ssible ways,
n
rp (n - r)!
'n!' isread as n factorial or factorial n and may also be written as 'n'.
Combination :In permutation every object is considered as different and distinguish-able, but in
combination we consider a set of objects or a group of element as different and distinguishable. In
permutation 3books X,Y,Z can be arranged in 6 different ways as follows: XYZ, XZY, YXZ, YZX,
ZXY, ZYX But in combination all these six ways are same i.e., XYZ and XZY or YXZ or YZX or
ZXY or ZYX are considered as one. way of arrangement.
Definition : Combination of some elements or objects are such an arrangement in where a group of
objects are considered as distingujshable and diferent. Here we ignore the order of the elements. If we
have 'n' objects and we want to like an arangement of combination with all the 'n' objects, then it
n!
would be arranged in "C, different ways. Where, nc, n!
(n -n)!
Here, C for combination.
If from 'n' objects we want an arrangement of combination with 'r' objects taking at a time then the
objects would be arranged in nc different ways.
Where., "C,r! (nn!- r)!
 Probability 4(1)-10 Business Sttistics
Example: Out of 5 olds and 3 youngs, a members is to be
In how many ways the
committee can be formedcommittee we have to include 3
of 5 formed.
olds?
Solution: We are given that the committee would be formedwhere with 5 members and at least
Therefore, the 3of them
are old, i.e., in the committee the
number of olds would be either 3or
might be formed in the following ways.
4 or 5.
commit ee
(i) With 3 olds and 2 youngs
S!
X
3! S! 3!
5x4x3! 3x2! 5x4 X3=30
2!x
(5- 3)! 3!(3-2)!(2!) 2!x3!^ 212! 312!
(ii) With 4 olds and 1 young, SC4 x 'C| = 5! 3! =5x3= 15
(5-4)!4!^ (3-1)!1! =1Xl=1 [0!=1]
(iüi) With S olds and 0 young, 3!
SCsx c0 =(5-5)15!(3-0)!0! 30 +15 +
I=46.
.. The total number of ways in which the formed =
committee can be
4(1),11 Conditional Probability : A orrB occures
If two events A and B are dependent, i.e., the B depends on the occurance of
occurance of as condittonal prObability.
Only when A has already been occured then the nrbability is known has already been occured.
Symbolically P(B|A)is known as conditional nrohability ofB given that A
And we express PB|A)as follows :
PB|A) =P(AB)
P(A) P(A) > 0 i.e., P(AB) = P(A) PB|A)
In the same way, P(AB)= P(AB) i.e., P(AB) = P(B) P(A|B)
P(B) > 0
P(B)
This is known as myltiplication rule of probability for two dependent events.

4(1).12 Theorem on probability :

On the basis ofthe definition of prioriand axiomatic probability,the following theorems can be stated

Thegrem/(): The additive law of probability for two mutually exclusivé events.
Staterneht : The probability of occurrance of any one event of two mutually exclusive (or disjoint)
events is equal to the sum of their individual probabilities.
Symbolically, if A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then
P(AUB) = P(A) +P(B)
Deoof. Let. A and B are two mutually exclusive
random experiment E. The venn diagram is given belowevents: of the obtained sample space S from a

Fig, Venn
Let us consider. the total number of
elements in the diagram.
The number of elements belong to the
The number of elements belong to the event BA is n(A)
sample space is n(S)
According tothe definition of priori event is n(B)
P(A)= nA) P(B) = nB) probability,we have
n(S)
Since the events A and B are n(S)
mutually
So, the number of
elements belong to theexclusive.
event AUB is
n(AUB) = n(A) +n(B)
 usiness,-Sttistics
Probability 4(1)-11
: PAUB)= n(AUB)
n(S)nA)+n(B)n(A n),pA)+P(B)
n(S)
P(AUPAPNP(B) (Proved]
n(S) n(S)
dheorem2heaíditive law of probability for
occurance of any one event ofnon-mutually
Statement he probability of exclasive events.
equal tothe sum of thcir two non-mutually exclusive events is
^ymbolically, if Aand individual
Bare two probabilities minus the probability that both events occur.
RANB) non mutually exclusive events, then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
Proof: 1Let Aand B are two
non
andom experiment E. The followingmutually exclusive events of the obtained sample space S from a
venn diagram is given by -

Let us consider,
Fig. Venn diagram.
The total number of elements in the sample space is
The number of elements belong to the event A is n(A)n(S)
The nurmber of elements belong to the event B is
n(B)
The, number of occurances favourable to the compound event AnB is n(ArB)
According to the definition of priori probability, we have,
P(A)DA)
,P(B) = n(B) , P(AnB)= n(ArB)
n(S) n(S)' n(S)
Since Aand Bare two non mutually exclusive events. So, the number of elements belong to the event
(AUB) is
n(AUB) = {n(A) - n(AnB)} +n(AnB) + {n(B) - n(AnB)}
=n(A) - n(AnB)+n(AB) +n(B) -n(AnB)
=n(A) + n(B) - n(AnB).
.:. P(AUB) n(AUB) n(A) + n(B) - n(ANB)
n(S) n(S)
n(A), n(B) n(AB)
n(S) n(S) n(S) = P(A)+ P(B) - P(ANB)
TheohemA) + P(B) -P(AnB) Provedl
: The multiplicative law of probability for two dependent events.
Statement : The probability of the joint occurance of the two dependent events is equal to the
product of the unconditional probability of it's any one event and the conditional probability of another
event.
Symbolically, if Aand Bare two dependent events, then
P(AnB) =P(A) P(B|A), P(AnB) = P(B)P(A|B)
Proof : Let, A and B are two dependent events in the obtained sample space S
from the random
experiment E.
Venn diagram has been shown in the following figure.

Fig. Venn diagram.

 Business Sttistice
Probability 4(1)-12
occurrenices of which n(A) occurrences belong to the event
n(S)
Suppose, the sample space Scontainsevent B. Let n(AOB) be the number of occurences tavourable to
A and n(B) occurrences belong to the
AnB. occurances. Out of which
the compound event of tn(B)
P(AB) refers to the sampleBspace
Now, the conditional probability occurence has already happencad.
of A, ie.. when
n(AnB)0Ccurrences certain to the
n(AnB)
P(AJB) = n(B)
n(AnB)
Similarly we have, P(B|A) = n(A)
Now, P(AB) = n(S)
n(AnB)_nAnB) n(A PBIA)P(A)
n(A) n(S)
P(ANB) = P(A)P(B|A)
n(ArB)_n(ArB) nB) =P(AJB) P(B)
and P(ArB) = n(S) n(B) n(S) independent events.
P(ANB) = P(B) P(A|B) for two
probability independent events is equal to the
multiplicative law of
Theorem (4) : The
joint occurrence of thetwo
Statement : The probability of the
P(B)
product of their individual probabilities.
independent events, then P(AB) = P(A) sample space S and S,from
Symbolcally, ifA and B are two the obtained two
Let, A and B are the two independent events of
Proof :
the two independent random
experiment E, and E
elements in the sample space S,and S, respectively
total number of
Suppose, n(S,) and n(S,) ar the to the events A and B
respectively.
are occurrenses belong
and n(A) and n(B) probability,we have,
According to the definition of prior
P(A) =
nA) and P(B) = nB)
n(S) the elements of the sample space S, and S,
independentexperiments. So,
Since E,andE, are the two and constructa combined sample space.
are join indepndentlywitheach other
in the combined sample space, n(S,nS,) = n(S) n(S,) and the
: The total number/of elements n(AB) = n(A) n(B)
number of elements belong to the event (AB) is nB) =PA)P(B)
PAnB= n(ArB) n(A) nB) n(A) X

n($)) n(S) n(S,) n(Sn(S,)

P(AnB}=PA) P(B) (Proved)
Theorem/(5): Bayes' Thebrem: 1763) is a particular application of
Bayc theorem (according to ifAfonder Reverend Thomas Bayes,
as the inverse probability theorem. This theorem is widely
conditional probability. It is a<sknown
used in business, medicine, ind1gtry and so forth.
Statement : Let (A, Ag A-- A,} be a set of mutually exclusive and exhustive events
forming apartition of thesamplespace,S/such that -
0AUAU--UA,=S
(61) P(A) >0,
Let Bbe the event of Ssuch thavP(E)
thab
P(A|B) =RP(A) P(B|A)
P(A) P(B| A
Which is Baye's theorçm
Proof : According to the given
probability for dependent events,theorem,
we have,
A; and Bare dependent. Then by
using multiplication rule of
Business Sttistics Probability 4(1)-13
PA B) =P(B) P(A|B) - ()
P(A,nB) =PA) PBA) - (ii)
From equation (i), we have,P(B) P(A, |B) =P(A^B)
» P(A |B) =P(AB)
P(B)
P(A) PB|A
P(B)
[From equation (ii) ]

. P(A, |B) = P(A) P(B|A) -(ii)

P(B)
A A2 Ak

An A,nB |A;OB

Fig. : Venn diagram

We know, S = A, UA, U--UAk
and B= SnB
=(A,U AgU-UA) OB
=(AB) U(A,AB)U - (ArnB)
.PB) =P{A,B) (A,nB)U---U (AgnB) J
=P(A,nB) +P(A,nB)+ -P(AnB)
[Since, (A,nB), (A,nB), ---, (A,OB) Are.mutually exclusive )
k k

=2 P(AnB) = Z P(A)P(B|A,) [From equation (ii) ]

/=l j=l
Now, putting the value of P(B) in equation (iii), We have,
P(A) P(B A)
P(A, B) k (Proved)

i=1
Theorem (6) : The sum of the probabilities of happening and non-happening of an
event is one.
Symbolically, P(A) + P(A )= 1 or p+q=1.
Proof : Let Abe an event belong to the obtained sample space Sfrom random experiment Ein which
complement event A .
Normally, Aand A are disjoint events.
.AUA =S
’P(AU P(S)
’ P(A) + P(A)= 1 (By using axiomatic probability]
Theorem (7) : The value of probability lies between 0to 1, i.e., 0s P(A) s1.
Proof: Le, Abenevet bdong to thesmple spae Sfiom arrbm opaimetE
According tothe Axiomatic definition of probability, we have,
P(S) = 1 and P(A) 0
0sPA) (i)
Here, AcS
B. STAT-44
 Probability 4(1)-14 Business Sttistics

PA) S PS)
PA)l (1)
Fronyeuation (i) and (ii), we get, 0SP(A) S 1. [Proved]
A and B are two Independent events then prove that A and p
Theorem (8) : If
independent.
Proof : Since A and B are two independent events.
. P(AnB) =P(A) P(B) ---i)
using De-Morgan law)
Now, P(A n B)=P( (By
=l-P(AUB)
=1- [P(A) + P(B) - P(ANB)]
= 1-P(A) - P(B) + P(AnB)
[From equation (i) ]
= 1-P(A) - P(B) + P(A) P(B)
= 1[1-P(A)) - P(B) [1-P(A)]
-[1-P(A)][1-P(B) ]
= P( PB)
P( B)=P( P(B)
events then A and B independent.
Hence, if AandB are two independentnon-mutually exclusive events A and B prove that
Theore ( : For any two
P(An B= P(A) - P(AnB) belongs to sample space S. The Venn
twO non mutually exclusive events
Proof : Let, A and Bare
iagram is given below :
S
A
AnBANB) B

We have, A=(An B)AnB)

’P(A) = P[(An B)U(ANB)]
P(A) = P(AN B)+PAB) AnB)and (AnB) mutually exclusive ]
P(A)-P(ANB) =P(AN B)
’ P(An B)= P(A)- P(ANB)
Proved)]
 Business Sttistics
Probability 4(1)-15*
MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS
The mathematical problems of this chapter can be
divided into the following several
formats.
Cormat (1) : InCase of tossed or rolled or
drawn of coins and dice
Format (2) Application of Additive and
Format (3) : Incase of general events Multiplicative formula
Format (4) : Problems of Baye's Theoremn
Format (5) : Problems about different
characteristics
Format (6) : Problems about playing cards
Now, we are describing the followcharts with related problems :
Format (1) : Incase of tossed or rolled or drawn of coins and dice
Working Rules:
Rule (1): If an unbiased or fair die tossed
) at once, then the sample space, S: (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
(i) at two times, then the sample space is given below :
S 2 3 4 5 6
1
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) -(2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
After these working structure :
The total number of sample points n(S) = *
Let, the event A the required question.....
The set of favourable cases of event A : ( n (A) =
n (A)
So, the required probability, P (A) n(S)
Rule (2) : If an unbiased or fair coin tossed
(i) at once, then the sample space, S: {H, T}, n(S) = 2
(ii) at two times, then the sample space, s = {H, T} X{H, T}
= {HH, HT, TH, TT}, n(S) = 4
Or, H T
H HH HT
T TH TT
(ii) at three times, then the sample space, S = (H, T} x {H, T} × {H, T}.
= {H, T} x{HH, HT, TH, TT}
= (HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT), n(S) = 8
Or,
S HH HT TH TT
H HHH HHT HTH HTT
THH THT TTH TTT
 Probability 4(1)-16 Busines Sttistlc
Problem-(1) A falr coln Is tossed two times, Construct the sample space of ih
experiment. What is the probability of getting () all hend (i1) at lenst one hend
(iil) at best one head (lv) a head anda tall
Solutlon : Afair coin is tossed two times. The sample space of the experiment S: (HH, HT TH
TT)
Total nurmber of cqally likely cases of sample points is, n(S) 4
() Let, the event A: Allhead
5S
The setof favourable cases of event A: (HH).n(Asi
1
So, the required probability, P(A) n (S) (Ans)
(ii) Let the event B : At least one head.
3
. The set of favourable cases of event B:HT, TH, HH), n(B)= o2P
n(B)
P(B) (S)
(i)Let the event C:At best one head.
. The set of favourable cases of event C: (HT, TH, TT), n (C) =3.
The required probability P(C) =n (S). 4
(iv) Let the event D: A head and a tail
.. The set of favourable cases of event D : (HT, TH}, n(D)=2
The desired probability, PD) "D_2!
n (S) 4 ; (Ans)
Problem (2) : An unbiased coin is tossed four times. What is the probability of
getting () at least 3 heads (ii) at best 1 head.
Solution : If an unbiased coin is toSsed four times, then the sample space is given below:
HH HT TH TT
HH HHHH HHHT HHTH HHTT
HT HTHH HTHT HTTH HTTT
TH THHH THHT THTH THTT
TT TTHH TTHT
.. Total number of possible outcome of sample
TITH TTTT
(i) Let, the event A:at least 3 heads space, n(S) =16
.. The set of fovourable cases of event
A: {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH}, n(A) =5
So, the required probability, P(A) =n(S)A 16
() Let event B:at best 1head
.. The set of favourable cases of event B: (HTTT,
.. The number of favourable cases of event B, n(B) THTT, TTHT, TTTH,TTTT}
=5.
So, the requiredprobability, P(B) =A
n(S) 16
Problem-(3) : An unbiased coin is tossed 10
times. Find the probability of (1) just
3 heads (ii) at least one head (iii) at least two
heads and (iv) at least three heads
(v) at best one head.
Solution : If an unbiased coin is tossed 10 times, then the total number of sample points is n =
(S)
210 =1024
10 x 9 x 8
C33 x 2 x 1
(i) The probability of just 3 heads = P (just 3 heads) = 1024
=0.1172
1024
() The probability of at least one head
Business Sttistics Probability 4(1)-17

1023
=l-P(0 head) =10 l1024 1024 0.999

(i) The probability of at least two heads = 1-P (0 head) P(1 head)
10 1013 0.9893
=l1024 1024 =* 1024 1024 1024
(iv) The probability of at least three heads
=l-P(0 head)- P(1 head) P(2 head) =l0241024 1024
1 10 45 968 = 0.9453 (Ans)
1024, 1024 1024 1024
(v) The probability of at best one head
=P (0 head) + P (1 head)
10 1Oc, 1 10 11 =0.0107 (Ans)
1024 1024 1024 10241024
the probability that :
Problem- (4) : Two dice are thrown at random. Find
) the total of the numbers on the dice is 8
(ii) the first die shows6
greater than 8
(i) the total of the numbers on the dice is
(iv) the total of the numbers on the dice is 13
(v) both the dice show the same number
the dice less than 5
(vi) the sum of the numbers shown by the dice is exactly 6
(vii) the sum of the numbers shown bysample space S are listed below :
Solution:When two dice are thrown then the 5 4
6
1 2 3
(1,3) (1.4) (1,5) (1,6)
(1,1) (1.2) (2,5) (2,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4)
(3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (4,6)
(4,3) (4,4) (4,5)
4 (4,1) (4.2) (5,6)
(5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5)
(5,1) (6.5) (6,6)
6 (6,1) (6.2) (6,3) (6,4)
.. Total number of possible outcome of sample space, n (S) = 36.
numbers on the dice is 8.
())Let event A : The total of the (4,4), (3,5), (5,3)} :
.. The set of favourable cases of event A: {(2,6), (6,2),
The number of favourable cases of event A, n (A)=5.
5
Therefore, the probability, P (A)= nn(S)
(A)
36
(ii) Let event B: The first die shows 6 (6,6))
:. The set of favourable 6 cases of event B:( (6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),
n (B) =6.
. The number of favourable cases of event B,
n(B) 6 !
The required probability, P (B) = n(S) 366
than 8.
(ii) Let event C:The total of the numbers on the dice is greater
(4,6), (6,4),
:. The set of favourable cases of event C: {(3,6), (6,3), (4,5), (5,4),
(5,5), (5,6), (6,5), (6,6)}, n (C) = 10
10 5
The probability, P (C)"9 n(S) 36 18
13.
(iv) Let event D: The total of numbers on the dice is
: The set of favourable cases of event D:0, n (D) =0
 Problem-10)
4) P : So, P(AnB)
Now,=7
Also, P(A/B)=.:. We
Solution: Are (AIB) "P |Beside
these,
P(B/A)
P(A) = Probkem9): Probability
4(1)-20
P A know, PAn P(
(a andB we A "P(A)=1-P(A).
(An P(ANB)
=2x15PP((AB) know P(ANB) P(ArB)
’= =84 P(ANB)
’= ’ and
P(ANB) P(B)P(ANB)
’ P(AUB) Given
oP( B)
B)
= are 41
82
P(ANB) 78t8 B B)
that P B)
(AnP B) =
B) not # =
independent (B) - P
(i) and IfA P(A) 88 the 3 1 8 = P(A) that, Given P(A (B)
Findindependent. 3+5-6 3.53 P(AnB) P(B)
- -(events
) 433 +P(A)
-P
P P(B) P(B) that,
(An the 64 8 UB) (An RB)
A -
=3 ?
are B and 2
values P(AnB) P(B) = P(A) =1-P(AUB) B), 1- =
B) B e (BBS =
not (ii-)- are 3 PAn PB)
iv) of independent =722P(AUB)and (H), P(B)
P mutually
the B)
(An = =PA)-
Part-III, 8 5
following 3
if and
B) exclusive P(AnB) PANB)
N.P(U.A, UB)
()
probabilities =
P events, P(A) 20061
=
4 3
(A° P(B)
o P(A)=, find
B) Sttisticg
Business
(i).P P(A/B)
1
(vi)
(APB) = and
P(AU
n P(BIA)
B) 2
Business':Sttistics 7 Probability 4(1)-21

B), Also, are A and Bindependent ?1A and B are not independent then ind he
values of P(A B), P (A |.B), P (Ã IB)..
Solution: Given that, P(A)=PB)=P(AUB)=
() Since Aand Bare not mutually exclusive events, so
P(AUB)=P(A) +P(B)-P(ANB)
-;--PAnB)
P(ANB)58 10 13.102
20 20 20
-2,3835.ül k t)
(ii) P(AnB) =P(B) - P(AOB 20 20 20
3
(iii) P(An B,=P(A)-P(AOB)=4 20 20
1
(iv) P( B=P(A VB) e1-P(AUB)=l
11
(v) P(AOB= P[(A UB] =1-P(AUB) =1-; 5

(vi) P(AUB)=P(A)+PB)-P(AnB)
(: P(A)=1-P(4)I
=1-P(A)+ P(B) -P(A nB) 28 - 10 18 9 A. i
1.2 1 20- 5 + 8- 5 202010
20
independent if
Also, we know that the events A and B are
P(AnB) = P(A) P(B)
Here, P(AOB)=20
2 2
And, P(A) xP(B) = x20 --
P(A) P(B)
From equations (i) and (ii) we have P(AnB)
So, A and B are not independent.
3
P(AnB) 20 3 5 15 3
Now, P (A B) =
P (B) 2 20* 408
5
1 1
P(AO B) 10 1
PIALB- P(An B) 10
1-P (B) 2 3
P(B) 1- 5 5
1

P(A|B)= P( B P(Ãn B) 2 2 5
6
1-P (B)1 2 3
P(B) 5 5
ProbBem(11) : Consider two events A and B, such that P (A) = 1/8, P (A B) 1/4
and P (B A) = 1/6. Examine the following statements and comment on the validity
of each of these:
() Aand B are independent
(i) A and B are mutually exclusive
B. STAT-45
 BusinessSttistics
Probability 4(1)-22

(i) P(A |B) = 0.5

Solution : Given th¡, P(A) = P(A B)=, P(BA)=!
We know, P(A n B) = P(A)P(B |A) = x
And, P(A nB) =P(B) P(A B)
1
P(B) x
»P(B)-2
) We know that A and B are independènt if and only if
P(AnB) = P (A) P(B)
Here, P(A nB)=48 --(i)
1
And, P(A) P(B)= x12 96 --ii)
From equations (i) and (ii), we have P (AnB) # P(A) P(B)
So,A and B are not independent.
(ii) We know that Aand Bare mutually exclusive if and lonly if P(A n B) =0.
1
Since P (An B) = 48 +0
So, A and B are not mutually excBusive.

(iii) LHS. P(A |B)

P(An B) P(AUB) 1-P (A U B)
1- P (B)
P(B) PB)
1
+P(B) - P(An B)) 1-+ D 1g!
1- (P (A)
1-P (B)
48 - 9
1
48 48 48
11 11
12 12 12
39 39
=0.887
8TI 44
4
But, R.H.S = 0.5

.P( +0.5
Format (3) : Incase of general events :
|Generally the following rules are apply to solve problems under this fomat.
|In the question,
(), if both / and I, but/ all, then intersection (o)
(ii) if 'or then union (U).
(iii) if 'not' then prime (/-7c)
Let us consider the two events A and B
In order to solve the mathematical problems, the necessary formulae are given in
the table. n
 Probability. 4(1)-48
20(20-1) 190
BusinessSttistics
20C, 2X1
20(20-1) (20-2) = 1140
3x2x1
20(20-1) (20-2)(20-3) = 4845 and so on.
4x3x2x1
(i) Tips of calculation by using calculator :
10co =[10 shift
nc,
10C, =[10 shift
There is no need touch shift button for white colour "C,
Working structure :
From individual balls Carawn balls
The required probability From total balls C arawn balls

Sapposé, 4R 6B 3Y in apot.
Here, totz number of balls = 13.
If 2balls are drawn

(a) at random, then P2R) =

13c.
(b) at without replacement, then P(2R)=
13yl2c.
(c) at with replacement, then P(2R) =

(i) If 3balls are drawn at random, then P(3R) = Similarly, others.

Problerm6 : A bag contains 6red and 4 white balls. Three balls are drawn at
random,what is- the probability that :
(i) All of them are red;
(ii) None of them is red;
(iii) Two of them are red and one is white.
BBS (H), Accounting,
Solution : Management, Finance, Marketing, N.U-2008]
A bag contains 6 red and 4 white balls.
:.Total number of balls in the bag = 6 + 4= 10.
() The probability that all of 3 balls are red =p(3 red 20
balls)= 120 0.1667
() The required probability = 1- P(3 red
balls) 1-0.1667 =0.8333
=
(iii) p(2 balls are red and one is white) -
15x4 60
Problen- (64) : A bag 120 120 =0.5
contains
probability of getting a white 4 white, 3
Solution :A bag contains 4 white. or red ball at black and 5 red balls.
3 black and 5redrandom
in
balls.
a
single draw. What is the
 () If3
Solution: ) at Then Again, then
(vi) (v) (iv) (ifi) (ii). Problem
(47&A IfSolution
replacement?
successively and
h ball Problem
Let In wi:twithout . (1) :. (ii) The Solution ()
of.each
colour, The
P(all balls 3 a The The Let, Let,
random,
tPrhatob<em-
white 8 Let
the 1 2 atrandom, all all the balls the box, Let, probability ness
us
A:The BusiSttistics
ofare 3 the if event
is the
required probability, the the probability follows:define
t w
3 it are the =P white,
ball iso
are areTotalballs each least are 3are required required 8 red : nd
red) drawn red, is drawn black,replacement. remaining (66 event event event The fî(65):
(A)
determinered drawn A
arecolor 1
blue :The and probability, that total the
number and is prbabílity, probability, 10 B: A: +P ofevents
at successively C: An
20C3 8C3random, drawn
blue successively the A number
box first red One (B ) P Both both Both
1 box probability (B)=; gettingB:The
grèen ball balls urn A
1140 56 of the
contains thirdFindballs =Ilca balls balls balls
white and
then balls in P(A)= P isand contains P of
the probability (A) at (C) are are balls contains white aball B
0.0491 = in with black,white ball the are and are
random
= = is as
he
torder 8 one
55 red. white, white
in orred
24C|x24Cx24C1 BCj1OCjoCI
13824 8C1loCoC1
24Cjx23cx22c
24X23×22
12144 replacement. white, 24 1lc
is red
box red, the balls probability
the ()
withoutsecond red P ball,
red,
=
white. identical (A)
that 3 = urn both
8+3+9= 24-(8+10) 3 55 ball. =Tlc, P
blue, = (AvB)
blue, : replacement, ball balls and
What +3=1l: 8 are
and is that balls
and red white red 3
480 8x10x6 =6
[BBA, wilI the are
20 9 and of
green green drawn (lii)balls.
=0.0347 the first which
Third be
both
colors. third
balls. the ball If
480
ball successively8.are are two
Semester,result is
If 0.0395 = is red balls
3 white. black, black,
balls if and
Probability1)-49
N. it are
are the at 10 (if)
is drawn
U.random are
second one
drawn 2007|drawn
red is at
 Probability 4(1)-50 Business Sttistics

(i) P(all 3 are blue) 1J40=0.000877

(iii) P(at least 1 is blue) blueandlanother colour except blue) +P(3

=P(1 is blue and 2 another colour except blue) +P(2 is
is blue)
iCjxl?C2Cxl?C1 +
=20C3
3x136 + 3x17
20C3
408
70c3 51 1 460 =0.4035
1140 1140 1140 l140 I140l140
1140
8CxC1289 252 =0.2211
(iv) P(2 are red and lgreen) 20C3 1140 1140

SCjx'Cci 216 =0.1895

(v) P(lof each colour) = 20C3 1140
drawn at without replacement (say).
orderwise. So, 3 balls are
(vi) Since 3ball_ are drawn in the
The required probability is green)
ball is red,.the second ball is blue and the third ball
= P(The first
BCjx2C;C 216 = 0.0316
2 balls
20C)x19C8C 6840 black, and 3 green balls. are
10 white, 7
Problem (68) : A box containsprobability that :
the
drawn at random. Find out
() Both are white green
(ii) One is white, and one is
green
(iüi) One is black, and one is case of without replacenment.
in
Also find the probabilities
balls in the box = 10+ 7+ 3 = 20
Solution : Totalnumber of then
drawn at random,
In the case of 2 balls aYe

(i) P(Both balls white)

10C2 45 = 0.2368

=20C2 190
10Cjx°C30 =0.1579
green)
(ü) P (One is white and one is 190
20C2
(iii))P(One is black and one is green) = 7cx°C1
20C2
21 =0.1105
190
placement, then
Again, in the case of 2 balls are drawn at without
apdst ball is white and 2nd ball is wnil) 10CxC
20C,x19c,
90
380 =0.2368

GPIFirst ball is white and second ball is green) or (First ball is green and second ballis white) }
-P (First ball is white and second ballis green) + P(First ball is green and second ball is white)
10C1x°C1Cx°CL 30 30 60
20C1x19C,20Cjx1C; 380 380 380 =0.1579
(iii) The required probability
pI (First ball is black and second ballis green) or (First ball is green
DEirst ball is black and second ball is green) + P(First ball is green and second ball is black)}
and second ball is block)
7CjxCj Cjx'C 21 21 380= 42
0.1105
20C1x19C;20C1x19C; 380 380
Business Sttistics robability 4(1)-51
Problem (6) A box contains 4 red, 3 white and 6 black balls, 4 balls are drawn
randon from the box. Find the drawn there is
at that among the balls
gt least one
ball of each probabllity
lution: The total number ofcolour.
balls in the box = 15
If 4 balls are drawn at random from the box, then the total number of equally likely cases of sampie
points, n(S) = 15c, 1365
Let, event A:lred, 1 white and 2 black balls
event B:lred, 2 white and lblack balls
event C :2red, 1white and 1 black balls =300
The number of favourable outcomes of event A, n (A)=C,
240
The number of favourable outcomes of event B, n (B) =C
The nurmber of favourable outcomes of event 180
C.n (C)=4c,
The probability that the balls of each colour
= P (AUBUC) =P(A)+ P(B)+P (C) 180 720 =0.5275
n(A) n(B) n(C) 300 + 240 + 13651365
n (S) 1365 1365
n (S) n (S)
A bag contains 7.red balls and 5 white balls. 4 balls are drawn at
Iroblenm- (70) red
of them are red (ii) two of them are
random. What is the probability that (i) all
and two white?
Solution : A bag contains 7 red balls and 5 white balls.
.. The total number of balls in the bag =7+ 5= 12
()) Let, the event A: All balls are red.
35 = 0.0707
:.The required probability, P(A)= 495
12CA
(i)Let, the event B: Two balls are red and two white.
210 =0.4242
:. The required probability, P (B) 495
white and5 blue balls. Three balls are
Problem- (71): A bag contains 6 red, 4
replacement. Find the probability that they
drawn at random from this bag without
blue.
are drawn in the order red, white and balls = 5
Solution:In the bag, red balls =6, white balls = 4and blue
.:. The total number of balls =6+4+5= 15
Let, event A : The balls are red, white and blue.
120
0.0439
. The desired probability,
P(A)=15c,xl4c,xC, 2730
balls. If 8 balls are
Problem- (72): In a box there are 10 red, 8 white and 6 blue
taken from the box without replacement, what is the probability of having 3. red, 2
white and- 3 blue balls?
Solution: In the box, red balls = 10, white balls = 8 and blue balls = 6
.:. Total number of balls = 10+8+6= 24
If 8balls are taken from the box without replacement, then the total number of equally likely cases of
sample points is
n (S) =24, X23c,
= 24 x 23 x 22 x 21 × 20 X 19x 18 x 17=24 X 1235591280
Let, event A : The balls are3 red, 2 white and 3 blue
Probability 4(1)-52 Business Sttistics
. The number of favourable cases of event A.,

- 10 x9x 8x 8x 7x 6x 5x 4
=(3× 8) x (10x 3 x 8x 7x 6x 5x 4) =24 X201600
. The probability of having 3 rced, 2 white and 3 blue balls.
24 x201600 201600 - 0.00016316
n(A)
P(An(S) =1235591280
24 x 123559 1280
Acarton of eggs has 2 bad and 10 good eggs. If a cake is
probability that (a) made of
having there
Problem- (73) : is the are
4 eggs randomly chosen from the carton, what
bad ege in the cake (c) exactly, 2
no bad eggs in the cake (b) at least one
bad eggs and (d) having at most one bad egg?
12.
Solution : Total number of eggs in a carton = 2+ 10=carton, of equaly likely
from the then the total number
If acake is made of 4eggs randomly chosen
12x 11x 10 x9 = 495
cases of sample poiNs is n (S) = 12c,4x3x 2X 1
(a) The probability that there are no bad eggs
210 = 0.4242
=P (0 bad egg) = P (4 good eggs) = 495

(b) The probability of at least one bad egg

=1-P(0 bad egg) =1-0.4242 = 0.5758
(c) The probability of having exactly 2 bad eggs
lx45 = 0.0909
= P(2 bad eggs and 2 good eggs) 495

(d) The probability that having at most one bad egg

= P (0 bad egg) + P (1 bad egg)
=P (4 good eggs) + P(1bad egg and 3 good eggs)

10cA X
10C, 210 2x 120 210 +
240 450
=0.91
12CA 495 495
Problem (74) : A bag containes 8 red and 5 white
3 balls are made such
495 495 495

balls. The successive drawings of

that () balls are replaced before
are not replaced befoe the the second trial (ii) the
balls
second trial. Find the
balls. probability and the second 3 red
Solution : In a bag, red balls = 8, white balls =[N.U. 2004, BBS (H),
Total number of balls in the bag = 8 + 5= 13
i) If the successive drawings of 3
5
Part-III]
balls are replaced
equally likely cases of sample points, n(S) = before the second trial, then
Let the event A: The first C,
drawing will give 3 x*C,= 286x286= 8179%
the total number of
.The number of favourable cases of white and the second 3
event Ais n(A) =C, xC, =S60 red balls.
. The required probability, P(A) =A 560
n(S)
of 3 balls 81796 =0.0068
(ü) If the successive
drawings
equally likely cases of sample points, are not
replaced befoe the second trial,
then the total number of