Scribd
Upload
52 views2 pages

ECO 204 - Assignment III - Lab - Fall 2023

This document outlines an economics lab assignment on time series forecasting. It contains 5 questions involving computing forecast accuracy measures for different forecasting methods, including naive, average, moving averages, linear trend, and regression. Students are asked to analyze patterns in time series data, develop forecasting models in Excel, and compute forecasts and errors.

Uploaded by

Sayeeda Jahan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
52 views2 pages

ECO 204 - Assignment III - Lab - Fall 2023

This document outlines an economics lab assignment on time series forecasting. It contains 5 questions involving computing forecast accuracy measures for different forecasting methods, including naive, average, moving averages, linear trend, and regression. Students are asked to analyze patterns in time series data, develop forecasting models in Excel, and compute forecasts and errors.

Uploaded by

Sayeeda Jahan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

East West University

Department of Economics
ECO 204 (1 & 9); Fall’ 2023
Lab Assignment
Instructor: Sayeeda Jahan

1. Consider the following time series data.

Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the
following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error.
b. Mean squared error.
c. Mean absolute percentage error.
d. What is the forecast for week 7?

Refer to the time series data. Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the
next period, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
e. Mean absolute error.
f. Mean squared error.
g. Mean absolute percentage error.
h. What is the forecast for week 7?
(16 marks)

2.

(4 marks)

Page 1 of 2
3. Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in Table 17.1.
a. Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series.
b. Compute the MSE for the four-week and five-week moving average forecasts.
c. What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or
five) to use in the moving average computation? Recall that MSE for the
three-week moving average is 10.22.
d. Using a weight of 1/2 for the most recent observation, 1/3 for the second
most recent observation, and 1/6 for third most recent observation, compute
a three-week weighted moving average for the time series.
e. Compute the MSE for the weighted moving average in part (d). Do you prefer
this weighted moving average to the unweighted moving average?
Remember that the MSE for the unweighted moving average is 10.22.

(10 marks)

4. Consider the following time series

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Using Excel, develop the linear trend equation for the time series.
c. What is the forecast for t = 8?
(10 marks)

5. Consider the following time series data.

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3


1 4 6 7
2 2 3 6
3 3 5 6
4 5 7 8

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression
equation to account for any seasonal and linear trend effects in the data: Qtr1
= 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if
Quarter 3, 0 otherwise.
c. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.

(10 marks)

*N.B: Use Excel where you find appropriate.

(All the best!)

Page 2 of 2

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy