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OPM400Ass1Feb 2024

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19 views3 pages

OPM400Ass1Feb 2024

Uploaded by

navneetbatth906
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment #1 OPM400 January 2024

1. JV Battery Distribution had the monthly sales for the past year below.

Month Sales
January 1065
February 1126
March 1180
April 1090
May 996
June 1105
July 1190
August 1098
September 1056
October 1136
November 1056
December 1021

a) Copy the above data into EXCEL and plot the monthly sales for last year on a line chart. (5)
b) Using the data copied into EXCEL, forecast this coming January’s sales using each of the
following:
i) Naïve method (2)
ii) A two-month simple moving average (2 marks)
iii) A three-month weighted moving average using weights of 6,3,1 (2 marks)
iv) A three-month weighted moving average with weights of your own choice. (2 marks)
v) Exponential smoothing using an α = .20 and a December forecast of 1000. (2)
Be sure to label each calculation and use a formula in order to receive the marks. Round all
forecasts to whole numbers.

2. Sales of Chevrolet’s new hybrid minivan at a popular dealership in Edmonton is below. Also find
the two forecasts that were completed in-house.

Forecasts
Actual
Month Sales Method 1 Method 2
1 92 55 60
2 73 61 58
3 69 60 65
4 84 55 62
5 78 60 70
6 85 60 55
a) Copy the above data into EXCEL and Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation for both Method 1 and
Method 2. Round all answers to one decimal place. (6 marks) Ensure that you show each step and that
each column is labelled. Formulas must be used to obtain a grade.

b) Copy the above data into EXCEL and Calculate the mean squared error for both Method 1 and
Method 2. Round all answers to one decimal place. (6 marks) Ensure that you show each step and that
each column is labelled. Formulas must be used to obtain a grade.

c) Create a text box and include your comments on which of the two forecasts is the most accurate and
why. (2marks)

3. Ontario Appliances has recorded the total sales of refrigerators for the previous twelve months.

Month Sales
January 1227
February 1205
March 1365
April 1348
May 1240
June 1198
July 1365
August 1405
September 1463
October 1356
November 1290
December 1156

a) Using this historical data, create a forecast from April – Dec using a three- month weighted
moving average using weights of 5, 4 and 3. All answers rounded to whole numbers (2 marks)
b) Using this historical data, create a forecast from Apr -Dec using exponential smoothing and an
opening forecast for March of 1300 units and an alpha of .35 All answers rounded to whole
numbers (2 marks)
c) Create a line chart and plot the actual demand as well as the April – Dec forecast from part a.
and the Apr-Dec forecast from b. (5 marks)
d) If you were responsible to forecast these items, what factors would you take into consideration
in addition to using historical data and time series analysis? Use a text box for your answer. (3
marks)

Be sure to label each column and use formulas in order to receive the marks. See instructions
below
Instructions:

This is an EXCEL assignment. Upload ONE excel document with all the above questions on one
sheet. Double check that you upload the correct document the first time.
In the top left corner, include your full name and student number.
Label your document with your firstname.lastnameAss1.
Ensure that every column is labelled describing the content.
Every piece of data must come from a formula to obtain the grade.
Format your tables to give a professional appearance.
Graphs must have a descriptive title, labelled X and Y axes.
Written questions must be inside a text box.
Below your question #3, copy the table below.

Question 1 Value Score Comments


Line Chart 5
Forecast i) 2
Forecast ii) 2
Forecast iii) 2
Forecast iv) 2

Question 2
Forecast Accuracy
a) 6
Forecast Accuracy
b) 6
Accuracy Comment 2

Question 3
Forecast a) 2
Forecast b) 2
Line chart c) 5
Comments d) 3
Total 40 0

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