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Probability Notes

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Probability Notes

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Random Variables and Probability

2024/04/18 STA 114 1


Topics: Random Variables and Probability
1.SETS
 UNIVERSAL SET

2.BASIC SET OPERATIONS


 Intersection
 Union of Sets
 Complement of Set
 Disjoint Sets

2024/04/18 STA 114 2


Topics: Random Variables and Probability contd…
3.DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS
 Random Experiment
 Sample Space & Events
 Mutually Exclusive Events
 Equally Likely Events
 Independent Events
 Random Variables
(i) Discrete Random Variable
(ii) Continuous Random Variable

4.PROBABILITY
 Classical or Objective Probability
 Equally likely approach (Mathematical or Classical or ‘a priori’ Probability)
 Properties of Probability
 Probability distributions or Probability function
(i) Probability mass function
(ii) Probability density function
2024/04/18 STA 114 3
SETS
• “A set is any well-defined/specified collection of
distinct elements or objects. The objects which
comprise the set are usually referred to as elements or
members of the set and are said to belong to that set
or to be contained in it”.

• Remark: The set must be well specified or well defined


in the sense that it must be possible at least in
principle, to specify the set so that one can decide
whether any given number does or does not belong to
the set. The members of the set are distinct in the
sense that repetition of elements is not permitted in
specifying the set.

2024/04/18 STA 114 4


SETS contd…
 We generally represent sets using upper case
Roman letters like A, B, C.

 Upper case letters with subscripts shall usually


denote subsets of sets denoted by the
corresponding letter.

 For example A1, A2 etc. shall normally denote


subsets of the Set A.

2024/04/18 STA 114 5


SETS contd…
Example of Sets
The following collections are examples of sets:

• -The students enrolled in University of Botswana.


• -The books in a departmental library
• -The citizens of Botswana.
• -The possible outcomes of rolling a single die.

2024/04/18 STA 114 6


2024/04/18 STA 114 7
UNIVERSAL SET
Universal Set or the Whole Space (U): “The
collection of all elements under consideration is
called a universal set or the whole space. That is
every element under consideration belongs to
this whole space”.

A sub-collection of the elements of this whole


space is called a sub-set or simply a set.

18 April 2024 STA 122 8


UNIVERSAL SET
Universal Set or the Whole Space (U): “The
collection of all elements under consideration is
called a universal set or the whole space. That is
every element under consideration belongs to
this whole space”.

A sub-collection of the elements of this whole


space is called a sub-set or simply a set.

18 April 2024 STA 122 9


UNIVERSAL SET

The rectangle represents the universal set,


U, while the portion bounded by the circle
represents set A.

A
U

STA 114 6
UNIVERSAL SET

The rectangle represents the universal set,


U, while the portion bounded by the circle
represents set A.

A
U

STA 114 6
BASIC SET OPERATIONS
1. Intersection
For any two sets A and B, the intersection of sets A and B is
those elements which are in set A and set B. This intersection
of A and B is denoted by AB or written as simply AB.

Symbolically, the intersection of A and B is written as AB =


{x: x  A and x  B}

Illustration
Consider the sets of numbers:
U = {x: x is positive numbers}
A = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}
B= {8,9,10,11,12,13,14}
AB = {8,9,10}

2024/04/18 STA 114 12


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
• A diagram showing the intersection of A and B with
shaded area is given below.

18 April 2024 STA 114 13


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
• A diagram showing the intersection of A and B with
shaded area is given below.

18 April 2024 STA 114 14


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
2. Union of Sets
“For any two sets A and B, the union of A and B is defined as the
set of all elements which belong to at least one set out of A and B.
This union of A and B is denoted by AB”.

Remark: If an element belongs to both A and B, it appears once and


only once in AB and does not appear twice.

Illustration
Consider the sets of numbers:
U = {x: x is positive numbers}
A = {1,3,5,7,9}
B= {6,7,8,9,10}
AB = {1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10}

2024/04/18 STA 114 15


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
2. Union of Sets
“For any two sets A and B, the union of A and B is defined as the
set of all elements which belong to at least one set out of A and B.
This union of A and B is denoted by AB”.

Remark: If an element belongs to both A and B, it appears once and


only once in AB and does not appear twice.

Illustration
Consider the sets of numbers:
U = {x: x is positive numbers}
A = {1,3,5,7,9}
B= {6,7,8,9,10}
AB = {1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10}

2024/04/18 STA 114 16


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…

2. Union of Sets

18 April 2024 STA 114 17


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
3. Complement of Set
For a set A we define complement of A as, the set of all
elements of the whole space which do not belong to A.
This complement of A is denoted by either or
A c.

In symbols, Ac = { x: x  U and x  A}

Example:
U = { Employees of a firm}
A = {Smokers employees in the firm}
or Ac = Complement of Set A = {Non Smokers
employees in the firm}
2024/04/18 STA 114 18
BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
3. Complement of Set
For a set A we define complement of A as, the set of all
elements of the whole space which do not belong to A.
This complement of A is denoted by either or
A c.

In symbols, Ac = { x: x  U and x  A}

Example:
U = { Employees of a firm}
A = {Smokers employees in the firm}
or Ac = Complement of Set A = {Non Smokers
employees in the firm}
2024/04/18 STA 114 19
BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
Complement of Set
The colored region inside U but outside the circle is labeled Ac
(read “A complement”). This set, called the complement of
A, contains all elements that are contained in U but not in A.

c
A
A
U

STA 114 12
BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
4. Disjoint Sets
Two sets A and B are said to be disjoint sets if
they have no elements in common. Thus two
sets A and B are disjoint if and only if
AB = .

Remark: Note that for any set A, A and Ac are


always disjoint.

2024/04/18 STA 114 21


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…
4. Disjoint Sets
Two sets A and B are said to be disjoint sets if
they have no elements in common. Thus two
sets A and B are disjoint if and only if
AB = .

Remark: Note that for any set A, A and Ac are


always disjoint.

2024/04/18 STA 114 22


BASIC SET OPERATIONS contd…

4. Disjoint Sets

18 April 2024 STA 114 23


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS
i. Random Experiment
ii. Sample Space & Events
iii. Mutually Exclusive Events
iv. Equally Likely Events
v. Independent Events
vi. Random Variables
a) Discrete Random Variable
b) Continuous Random Variable

18 April 2024 STA 114 24


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS
Random Experiment
A random experiment is an experiment for which we know the set of all possible outcomes
(exhaustive events or exhaustive cases), however when the experiment is performed we are not sure
which of the possible outcomes will occur.

Example 1: Experiment and Outcomes


Experiment Outcomes
1. Tossing a coin Head, Tail
2. Observe change in IBM share price over one week Increase, Decrease, No change
3. Observe the number of items sold during one day 0, 1, 2, …..n
in a shop
4. Rolling a die Face up 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

We can only talk about the chance or probability that a particular outcome will occur on any one trial
of the experiment.

A trial is a procedure or an experiment to collect any statistical data such as rolling a dice or flipping
a coin.

18 April 2024 STA 114 25


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS contd…

Sample Space & Events

Sample Space: A sample space of a random experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that
experiment. A Sample space of a random experiment is usually denoted by S or .

Events: Subsets of the sample space are called events. Events are usually denoted by upper case
Roman letters like A, B, A1, A2. etc.

Example: Sample Space and Events


Random Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event
1.Tossing Two Coins HH, TT, TH, HT S= {HH, TT, TH, HT} Getting one Head=A =
{HT, TH}
2.Tossing a six-sided 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Getting an odd
die number= B={1, 3, 5}

18 April 2024 STA 114 26


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS contd…

Sample Space & Events

Sample Space: A sample space of a random experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that
experiment. A Sample space of a random experiment is usually denoted by S or .

Events: Subsets of the sample space are called events. Events are usually denoted by upper case
Roman letters like A, B, A1, A2. etc.

Example: Sample Space and Events


Random Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event
1.Tossing Two Coins HH, TT, TH, HT S= {HH, TT, TH, HT} Getting one Head=A =
{HT, TH}
2.Tossing a six-sided 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Getting an odd
die number= B={1, 3, 5}

18 April 2024 STA 114 27


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS contd…

Mutually Exclusive Events


Events are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of any one of them precludes the happening
of all the others i.e. no two or more of them can happen simultaneously in the same trial or
experiment.

Example: Mutually Exclusive Events


i. In throwing a die all the 6 faces numbered 1 to 6 are mutually exclusive since if any one of
these face comes, the possibility of others in the same trial/experiment is ruled out.
ii. Similarly in tossing a coin the events heads and tails are mutually exclusive.

18 April 2024 STA 114 28


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS contd…

Equally Likely Events


“Outcomes of a trial (random experiment) are said to be equally likely if taking into consideration all
the relevant evidence, there is no reason to expect one preference to the others”.

All possible results of a random experiment are called equally likely outcomes and we
have no reason to expect any one rather than the other. For example, as the result of
drawing a card from a well shuffled pack, any card may appear in draw, so that the 52
cards become 52 different events which are equally likely.

Example: Equally Likely Events


(i) In tossing an unbiased or uniform coin, head or tail are equally likely events.
(ii) (ii) In throwing an unbiased die all the 6 faces are equally likely to come.

18 April 2024 STA 114 29


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS contd…

Independent Events
“Several events are said to be independent if the happening (or not happening) of an event is not
affected by the supplementary knowledge concerning the occurrence of any number of the remaining
events.”

Example: Independent Events


(i) In tossing an unbiased or uniform or fair coin, the event of getting a head in the first toss is
independent of getting a head in in the second, third and subsequent tosses.
(ii) If we draw a card from a pack of well shuffled cards and replace it before drawing the
second card the result of the second draw is independent of the first draw.

18 April 2024 STA 114 30


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS
contd…
• Definition of Random Variable(R.V)
• When we assign a number to each point of a
sample space, we have a function which is
defined on the sample space. This function is
called a random variable (or stochastic variable).
• Or A r.v is a function defined over a sample space
S, that associates a real number with each
possible outcome in S.
• A random variable is usually denoted by bold
letters like X or Y or Z.
2024/04/18 STA 114 31
DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS
contd…
• Random Variables

• Definition: A random variable is a variable that
assumes numerical values associated with the
random outcomes of an experiment, where one
(and only one) numerical value is assigned to
each sample point (outcome).

• Random variables are denoted using upper case
letters such as X. Individual outcomes for RV are
denoted by lower case letters such as x.
2024/04/18 STA 114 32
DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS contd…

(i) Discrete Random Variable


Definition: A discrete random variable is a random variable that has either a finite number of possible
values or a countable infinite number of possible values.

Random Experiment Random Variable (X) x: Possible values of X


Inspect 70 Radios Defective 0,1,2,…,70
Two tosses of a coin Number of Heads 0,1 or 2
Two tosses of a coin Number of Tails 0,1 or 2
Rolling a die Number of points on the 1,2,3,4,5,6
upturned

18 April 2024 STA 114 33


DEFINITIONS OF VARIOUS TERMS contd…

(ii) Continuous Random Variable


Definition: A continuous random variable is a random variable that has an infinite number of possible
values that is not countable.

Random Experiment Random Variable (X) x: Possible values of X


Weight 100 people Weight 45.1,78,…
Measure lifetime of a bulb Hours 900,875.9, …
Amount of money spent on Pula amount 57.7,90.5,100,…
food
Measure time between arrivals Inter arrival time 0,1.4,2.78,…

If the random variable takes uncountably infinite values between a specified range or
limit, it is called a ‘continuous random variable’

18 April 2024 STA 114 34


PROBABILITY
• Probability is the study of the measurement of
uncertainty.
• Uncertainty could be related to the happening or not
happening of an event when a random experiment is
performed.
• Probability as a measure of uncertainty has a value
between zero and one, both inclusive.
• Probability 1 represents that the event is certain to
happen and probability 0 represents that the event is
certain not to happen.

18 April 2024 STA 114 35


PROBABILITY contd…
• The probability in between these (that is, between 1
and 0) gives an idea about the degree of certainty of
the occurrence of that event.

• There are two classes of probability:


i. Classical (Objective) probability
ii. Subjective probability

18 April 2024 STA 114 36


Classical or Objective Probability
Classical or Objective probability of an event is a
numerical measure that indicates the likelihood of the
happening (success) of an event in the repeated trials of
the random experiment.

Two approaches of obtaining objective probability are:


i. Equally likely approach, (Mathematical or Classical or
‘a priori’ Probability)
ii. Relative frequency approach (Statistical or Empirical
Probability)

18 April 2024 STA 114 37


PROBABILITY contd…
i. Equally Likely approach (Mathematical or Classical or
‘a priori’ Probability)
Definition: If a trial/experiment results in n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely
cases and m of them are favourable to the happening of an event E, then the probability p of
happening of E is given by
Favourablenumberof cases m
p  P( E)  
Exhaustivenumberof cases n
Since the number of cases favourable to the ‘ non happening’ of event E are (n-m), the
probability q that E will not happen is given by

Non favourablenumberof cases n  m m


q  1  1  p
Exhaustivenumberof cases n n
Obviously p as well as q are non- negative and cannot exceed unity i.e. 0 ≤ p ≤ 1 and 0 ≤ q ≤ 1.

18 April 2024 STA 114 38


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PROBABILITY contd…
i. Equally Likely approach (Mathematical or Classical or
‘a priori’ Probability)
Remarks:
Probability p of the happening of an event is also
known as the probability of success and the
probability q of the non-happening of the event
as the probability of failure.
If P(E) = 1, E is called a certain event and if P(E) =
0, E is called an impossible event.

18 April 2024 STA 114 42


PROBABILITY contd…
Properties of Probability/ Axioms of probability
Let a random experiment have a sample space S.
Any assignment of probabilities to events must
satisfy three basic laws of probability,

(i) For every event A, Probability of A denoted by


P(A) is such that 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
(ii) For the whole sample space S, P(S) = 1
(iii) For any mutually exclusive events A and B,
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B).

18 April 2024 STA 114 43


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Complementary Theorem
• A and are mutually exclusive events. That is

• Events are mutually exclusive, if they have no


outcomes in common. Thus, the occurrence of
one event precludes the occurrence of all
others.

• Therefore,

2024/04/18 STA 114 46


2024/04/18 STA 114 47
Example
• Toss a fair coin twice.
• S= {HH, TH, HT, TT}
• Let A be the event “at least one head “occurs,
then
• A= {HH, TH, HT}
• Let be the event “both tails” occur then,
• = {TT}
• =1 - (1/4) = 3/4

2024/04/18 STA 114 48


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PROBABILITY contd…
Probability distributions or Probability function

We can list all the outcomes of an experiment


and the probability associated with each of the
outcomes.
If we denote the probabilities associated with all
values of a random variable we call this a
probability distribution.
This can be shown by either a table or a function.
18 April 2024 STA 114 52
Tree Diagram
• A tree diagram displays all the possible
outcomes of an event.
• Each branch in a tree diagram represents a
possible outcome.
• A tree diagram can be used to find the
number of possible outcomes and calculate
the probabilities of the possible outcomes.

2024/04/18 STA 114 53


PROBABILITY contd…
Probability distributions or Probability
function
Example
A coin is tossed three times.
Let’s define variable X as the number of heads that appear:

Draw a tree diagram of the above random experiment


Write down the sample space or list all the possible outcomes.

X 0 1 2 3 Total

P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8 1

Do these probabilities conform to probability rules? Yes


18 April 2024 STA 114 54
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Exercise
• Draw a tree diagram representing tossing a fair coin
four times. Write down the sample space.
• A fair coin is tossed 4 times. The number of possible
outcomes is
• (In general, there are possible outcomes, where n is
the number of trials and 2 = outcomes)
1)What is the probability of getting at least two heads?
2)What is the probability of getting exactly 2 heads?
3)What is the probability of getting at most one tail?
4)What is the probability of getting exactly 3 tails?

2024/04/18 STA 114 57


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PROBABILITY contd…
(i) Probability mass function
A discrete random variable will give arise to a
discrete probability distribution also called a
probability mass function.
(ii) Probability density function
A continuous random variable is associated with a
continuous probability distribution or probability
density function

18 April 2024 STA 114 61


DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
• A discrete probability mass function (pmf) is a table
or rule that shows values of the discrete random
variable X, with its associated probabilities
• A probability mass function P(X=x) satisfies the
following properties
I. 0P(X=x)1 thus P(X=x) can never be negative.
II. P(X=x) =1
The probability distribution is useful in finding
the probability of the type:
P(X=a), P(X  a), P(X >b), P(a<X<b), etc where a
and b are real numbers.
18 April 2024 STA 114 62
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Examples
Determine if each of the following tables represents a probability distribution:
(A)
x 6 7 8
P(X=x) 0.30 0.35 .35
Yes, this is a probability distribution, since all of the probabilities are between 0 and 1, and they
add to 1
(B)
x 2 3 4 5
P(X=x) 0.40 0.4 0.3 0.2
This is not a probability distribution, since the probabilities add to 1.3, not 1

(C)
x 2 3 4 5
P(X=x) 0.40 0.4 0.3 -0.2
This is not a probability distribution, since P(5) =−0.2, and probabilities cannot be negative
18 April 2024 STA 114 63
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

(D)
Let X= Number of heads observed when a coin is flipped twice.

x= 0 1 2
P(X=x) 1/4 2/4 1/4
Yes, this is a probability distribution, since all of the probabilities are between 0 and 1, and they
add to 1

Draw a tree diagram of the above random experiment


Write down the sample space or list all the possible outcomes.

18 April 2024 STA 114 64


Example: Discrete Probability distribution
A random variable X has a probability distribution defined as
follows:

• This is a discrete probability distribution because X takes


finite countable values. This is a pmf because;
– All probabilities, P(X=x), lie between 0 and 1
– The sum of all probabilities is 1
• P(X>4) =P(X=5)+P(X=8)+P(X=9)= 0.15+0.45+0.1 = 0.7
• P(X4) = P(X=4)+ P(X>4)=0.2+0.15+0.45+0.10=0.9
• P(X4) = P(X=2)+P(X=4) =0.1+0.2 = 0.3

18 April 2024 STA 114 65


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Example: Ask students to solve

Let X= Number of tails observed when a coin


is flipped thrice.

Is this a probability distribution?

18 April 2024 STA 114 67


Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf)
• Let X be a random variable and let x be any real number
that X takes. The cumulative distribution function (cdf)
of X is defined as the function
F(x)= P(X  x) = P
• The cdf satisfies the following conditions
1. 0< F(x) < 1
2. F(x1)  F(x2) where x1  x2 (non-decreasing)

18 April 2024 STA 114 68


Example: Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf)

Example
Let X= Number of heads observed when a coin is flipped twice.

Below we see a table showing P(X≤x) for each possible x

P(X≤x) =F(x)

x P(X=x) Cumulative
Probability =
P(X≤x) = F(x)
0 1/4 = 0.25 0.25 P(X≤0) =F(0)
1 2/4 = 0.50 0.75 P(X≤1) =F(1)
2 1/4 = 0.25 1.00 P(X≤2) =F(2)

As x increases across the possible values for x, the cumulative probability increases,eventually
getting 1, as you accumulate all the probabilities.
18 April 2024 STA 114 69
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Mean of a discrete random variable
• The Expected value or mean of a random variable is the
weighted average of all possible values of a random
variable, where the weights are the probabilities
corresponding to the values
E(X) = x P(X=x)=
Example: A random variable X has a probability distribution
defined as follows:

E(X) = x P(X=x)=
= (20.1)+ (40.2)+(50.15)+ (80.45)
+ (90.10) = 6.25

18 April 2024 STA 114 72


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Example: Mean of a discrete random variable
The mean is computed as follows

E(X) = x P(X=x)=6.25

18 April 2024 STA 114 75


Variance and Standard Deviation
• The variance of a random variable X denoted by 2
is defined as the expected value of the square of the
deviation from mean.
Var(X) = E(X-)2= (x-)2 P(X=x)
= x2 P(X=x) – [x P(X=x)]2

• Thus variance is 44.25-(6.25)2 =44.25-39.06 =5.19


• Standard deviation is then 5.19 =2.28
18 April 2024 STA 114 76
Example: Ask students to solve
A sample of 20 shoppers at a Pep Store was interviewed regarding
their buying habits. One question asked was: “How many times did
you shop at this store during the past week?” The Number of times
a person shopped X, and associated number of customers and
probabilities are given below.
Number of times
0 1 2 3 4 Total
shopped: X
Number of customers 2 a 10 2 1 20
P(X=x) 0.1 0.25 0.5 b 0.05 1.00

I. Use the information provided to fill in the blanks a and b


II. Compute mean and variance of X
III. What is the probability that if a person is randomly selected, they will
have shopped at least 3 times in a week?

18 April 2024 STA 114 77


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2024/04/18 STA 114 80
EXERCISES
1 A function that assigns a real value to each simple event in a
sample space is called
a. A random experiment
b. An outcome
c. A simple event
d. A random variable

18 April 2024 STA 114 81


EXERCISES contd…
2 State whether the following statements are TRUE or FALSE

 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one includes
the occurrence of the other.

 A distribution function describes how the probability is distributed by


assigning a probability to each outcome (sample point) in the sample space S.

 Given an event E defined on a sample space S, the complement of an event E


is defined to be the event consisting of some sample points that are in E.

 We say a random variable X is continuous if takes on the values 0 or 1 only.

 A continuous random variable takes any values in an interval.

 Given a probability distribution of a random variable X, the sum of all


probabilities associated with all values that X takes, will lie between zero and
one.

18 April 2024 STA 114 82


EXERCISES contd…
2 State whether the following statements are TRUE or FALSE

 We say a random variable X is discrete if takes on the values 0 or 1 only.

 A continuous random variable can take any fixed value with probability zero.

 A function describing the values of the discrete random variable and the
associated probabilities is called a probability density function.

 The function that assigns a numerical value to each outcome in a sample


space is called a random variable.
 The probabilities associated with all values of a random variable are called a
probability distribution.

18 April 2024 STA 114 83


EXERCISES contd…
3 If we assume that all the possible outcomes of this
experiment are equally likely, write down the sample
space for the following experiments
i. A coin is flipped thrice,
ii. Throwing a six sided die twice
iii. Throwing a die and tossing a coin together

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EXERCISES contd…
4. Global Insurance has found that 25% (one in four) of all insurance
policies are surrendered (cashed in) before their maturity date. Suppose
that 5 policies are randomly selected from the company’s policy database.
Let X denotes the number of insurance policies surrendered (cashed in)
before their maturity date.
The table below shows the probability distribution of this random variable.

X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P[X=x] a 0.4096 0.2048 0.0512 b 0.00032
• What distribution does this random variable follow?
• Find the probabilities a and b.
• What is the probability that at least 2 policies would be surrendered
before their date of maturity?
• Find the expected number (mean) of insurance policies surrendered
(cashed in) before their maturity date.
[B4(a)-2018]
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EXERCISES contd…
5 A sample of 20 shoppers at a Pep Store was interviewed regarding
their buying habits. One question asked was: “How many times did
you shop at this store during the past week?” The Number of times
a person shopped X, and associated number of customers and
probabilities are given below.
Number of times
0 1 2 3 4 Total
shopped: X
Number of customers 2 a 10 2 1 20
P(X=x) 0.1 0.25 0.5 b 0.05 1.00

i. Use the information provided to fill in the blanks a and b


ii. Compute x P(X= x)
iii. What is the probability that if a person is randomly selected, they will
have shopped at least 3 times in a week?

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EXERCISES contd…

6 A quiz contains one multiple-choice question with six possible answers, labelled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6,
only one of which is correct. A student plans to guess the answer because he has been missing classes
and knows nothing about the subject.
Let E denote the event that the outcome is an even number and T the event that the outcome is a
number that is three or greater.

i) Write down the sample space for this experiment.


ii) Write down the elements of the set .
iii) Are the events E and T mutually exclusive? Justify your answer.
iv) Calculate .
𝐶
v) Calculate .

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EXERCISES contd…
• 8. Hospital records show that of patients suffering
from a certain disease, 75% die of it. Six (6) patients
are selected at random. Suppose X denotes a
random variable representing the number of
subjects who will recover from the disease.
– What is the probability distribution of X?
– What is the probability that of the 6 randomly selected
patients, more than 1 patient will recover?
– What is the expected number (mean) of recoveries from
this disease?
[B2-2015]
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EXERCISES contd…

7. The natural remedy Echinacea is reported to boost the immune system, which will reduce flu and
colds. A 6-month study was undertaken to determine whether the remedy works. From this study, the
following probability distribution of the number of respiratory infections per year (X) for Echinacea
users was produced.

x 0 1 2 3 4
P(X=x) 0.45 0.31 0.17 0.06 0.01

i) Calculate the probability that an Echinacea user has no more than 2 infections per year.
ii) Find the expected number of respiratory infections per year, E(X), for Echinacea users.
iii) Calculate the variance of the number of respiratory infections per year for Echinacea users.
[B3(a, b)-2016]

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Recommended texts and reading materials

1. Ama, N.O; Mokgatlhe, L.L., Ramanathan, T.V. and


Sediakgotla, K (2008). Introduction to Statistics.
Zebra Publishing (Pty) Ltd, Windhoek, Namibia.

2. Ramanathan, T.V. and Sediakgotla, K. (2003).


Lecture Notes on Introductory Business Statistics.
Bay Publishers, Gaborone.

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