Lecture Note Basic Statistics for Applied Science

Math 1106

CHAPTER FIVE

5. Elementary Probability

5.1 Introduction
Probability and statistics are concerned with events which occur by chance. Examples include
occurrence of accidents, errors of measurements, production of defective and non-detective items
from a production line, and various games of chance, such as drawing a card from a well-mixed
deck, flipping a coin, or throwing a symmetrical six-sided die. In each case we may have some
knowledge of the likelihood of various possible results, but we cannot predict with any certainty the
outcome of any particular trial. Probability and statistics are used throughout engineering.

Probability is an area of study which involves predicting the relative likelihood of various
outcomes. It is a mathematical area which has developed over the past three or four centuries. One
of the early uses was to calculate the odds of various gambling games. Its usefulness for describing
errors of scientific and engineering measurements was soon realized. Engineers study probability
for its many practical uses, ranging from quality control and quality assurance to communication
theory in electrical engineering. Engineering measurements are often analyzed using statistics, and a
good knowledge of probability is needed in order to understand statistics.

Probability: can be defined as a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur or it
is a science of decision making with calculated risk in face of uncertainty.
- It is a numerical measure with a value between 0 and 1 of such likelihood. Where the
probability of zero indicates that the given event cannot occur and the Probability of one assures
certainty of such an occurrence.
 Mathematical models
A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. Mathematical
models are used not only in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines but also in the social sciences.
Physicists, engineers, statisticians, operations research analysts and economists use mathematical models
most extensively.

Mathematical models can be classified in different ways such as: Linear vs. nonlinear, Deterministic
vs. probabilistic (stochastic), Static vs. dynamic and Discrete vs. Continuous:

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5.1.1 Deterministic vs. non-deterministic (probabilistic) models

A deterministic model is one in which every set of variable states is uniquely determined by
parameters in the model and by sets of previous states of these variables. Hypothesize exact
relationships and it will be suitable when prediction error is negligible.
In a non-deterministic (stochastic model), randomness is present, and variable states are not
described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. Hence, there will be a defined
pattern or regularity appears to construct a precise mathematical model. Hypothesize two
components, which is deterministic and random error.
Example 5.1: Some examples of deterministic models (formulas)
a. Energy contained in a body moving in a vacuum with a speed of light E = mc2
b. If the price of an item increases, then the demand for that item will decrease.

c. Body mass index (BMI) is measure of body fat

d. Systolic blood pressure of newborns is 6 Times the Age in days + Random Error
SBP = 6 age (d) + ɛ
5.2 Review of set theory
Definition: Set is a collection of well-defined objects. These objects are called elements. Sets
usually denoted by capital letters and elements by small letters. Membership for a given set can be
denoted by  to show belongingness and  to say not belong to the set.

 Set operation and their properties

There are many ways of operating two or more set to get another set. Some of them are discussed
below.
Union of sets: The union of two sets A and B is a set which contains elements which belongs to
either of the two sets. Union of two sets can denoted by .

Intersection of sets: The intersection of two sets A and B is a set which contains elements which
belongs to both sets A and B. Intersection of two sets denoted by

Disjoint sets: are two sets whose intersection is empty set.

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Absolute complement or complement: Let U is the universal set and A be the subset of U, then the
complement of set A is denoted by A` is a set which contains elements in U but does
not belong in A.
Relative complement (or differences): The difference of set A with respected to set B, written as
A\B (or A – B) is a set which contain elements in A that doesn`t belong in B.
Symmetric difference: of two sets A and B denoted by A  B is a set which contain elements
which belong in A but not in B and contain elements which belong in B but not in A.
That is, A  B is a set which equals to (A\B)  (B\ A).

 Basic properties of the set operations

Let U be the universal set and sets A, B, C are sets in the universe, the following properties will
hold true.

1. A  B = B  A (Union of sets is commutative)

2. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  C = A  B  C (Union of sets is associative)
3. A  B = B  A (Intersection of sets is commutative)
4. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  C = A  B  C (Intersection of sets is associative)
5. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  (A  C) (union of sets is distributive over Intersection)
6. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  (A  C) (Intersection of sets is distributive over union)
7. A – B = A \ B = A  B`
8. If A  B, then B`  A` or if A  B then B`  A
9. A   = A and A   = 
10. A  U = U and A  U = A
11. (A  B)` = A`  B` De Morgan’s first rule
12. (A  B)` = A`  B` De Morgan’s second rule
13. A = (A  B)  (A  B`)

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 Some of the corresponding statement in set theory and probability

Set theory Probability theory

- Universal set, U - Sample space S (sure event), P(S) = 1

- Empty set  - Impossible event

- Elements a, b… - Sample point a, b, c… (or simple events)

- Set A, B, C,. . - Event A, B, C,.

- Set A - Event A occur

- A` - Event A doesn`t occur, P(A’) = 1 – P(A)

- A B - At least one of event A or B occur (the event containing all the elements
that belong to A or B or both).
- A B - Both events A and B occur (the event containing all elements that are
common to A and B).
- AB - The occurrence of A necessarily implies the occurrence of B

- A B=  - A and B are mutually exclusive (That is, they cannot occur

simultaneously)
 Several results that follow from the foregoing definitions, which may easily be verified by
means of Venn diagrams, are as follows: (For any events A and B)
1. A ∩ ø = ø. 6. = S.
2. A ø = A. 7. = A.
3. A ∩ = ø. 8. =
4. A = S. 9. =
5. = ø. 10.
5.3 Definitions of Some Basic Probability Terms
1. Random Experiment: Is an experiment of any type that generates outcome(s) where the
outcome cannot be predicted. Results of experiments may not be the same even through
conditions which are identical. Such experiments are called random experiments. For example,
tossing of a fair coin and rolling a die are considered as a random experiment.
2. Outcome: is the result of an experiment.

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Example 5.3:

- If an experiment consists of measuring “lifetimes” of electric light bulbs produced by a

company, then the result of the experiment is a time t in hours that lies in some interval say, 0 ≤
t ≤ 4000 where we assume that no bulb lasts more than 4000 hours.
Example 5.4:
Experiment Outcomes
Tossing of a fair coin Head, tail
Rolling a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
Selecting an item from a production lot defective (faulty), non-defective (good)
Introducing a new product Success, failure
3. Sample space: A sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment. For
example, there are two possible outcomes of a toss of a fair coin, which are a head and a tail.
Then the sample space, for this experiment denoted by S would be: S = {H, T}. Each possible
outcome in the sample space is called sample point.
4. Trail & Event: Consider an experiment of throwing a coin. When tossing a coin, we may get a
head (H) or tail (T). Here tossing of a coin is a trail and getting a hand or tail is an event. Event
is a subset of the sample space or it is a set containing sample points of a certain sample space
under consideration. They are denoted by capital letters.
Example 5.5:
Considering the experiment of rolling a die, let A be the event of odd numbers, B be the event of
even numbers, and C be the event of number 8.
A= {1, 3, 5} B= {2, 4, 5} C = {} or empty space or impossible event
5. Elementary event (simple event) is a single possible outcome of an experiment.
6. Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means non- occurrence of A and is
denoted by ̅ contains those points of the sample space which don’t belong to A.
7. Composite (compound) event is an event having two or more elementary events in it. For
example, rolling a die sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6) an event having { 5} is simple event where
as having even number={2,4,6} is compound (composite)event.
8. Mutually exclusive events: Two events are said to be mutually exclusive when the occurrence
of one affects the occurrence of the other. In other words, if A & B are mutually exclusive

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events and if A happens then B will not happen and vice versa. In other word two events E 1 and

E 2 said to be mutually exclusive evens if there is no sample point in common to both events E 1

and E 2 . For example, if we roll a fair dice, then the experiment is rolling the die and Sample
space (S) is
S = 1,2,3,4,5,6

If we are interested the outcome of event E 1 getting even numbers and E 2 odd numbers

E 1 = {2, 4, 6}

E 2 = {1, 3, 5}

Clearly E 1  E 2 = Ø. Thus E 1 and E 2 are mutually exclusive events.

9. Exhaustive Events: Events are said to be exhaustive if their union equals the sample space. For
instance, when a die is rolled, the event of getting even numbers {2; 4; 6} and the event of
getting odd numbers {1; 3; 5} are exhaustive events as the union of the events are equal to the
sample space {1,2,3,4,5,6}. When two coins are tossed the event that at least one head will
come up {HH, HT, TH} and the event that at least one tail will come up {TT, TH, HT} are
exhaustive events as the union of the events are equal to the sample space {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
10. Favorable Event: Favorable event is an event about which the experimenter is concerned or
interested. A favorable outcome is the outcome of interest. For instance, one can define a
favorable outcome in the flip of a coin as a tail.
11. Independent Events: Two events A and B are said to be independent events if the occurrence
of event A has no influence (bearing) on the occurrence of event B. For example, if two fair coins
are tossed, then the result of one toss is totally independent of the result of the other toss. The
probability that a head will be the outcome of any one toss will always be ½, irrespective of
whatever the outcome is of the other toss. Hence, these two events are independent. On the other
hand, consider drawing two cards from a pack of 52 playing cards. The probability that the second
card will be an ace would depend up on whether the first card was an ace or not. Hence these two
events are not independent events.

Another example A bag contains balls of two different colours say yellow and white. Two balls are
drawn successively. First ball is drawn from a bag and replaced after notes its colour. Let us assume
that it is yellow and denote this event by A. Another ball is drawn from the same bag and its colour

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is noted let this event denoted by B. Clearly, the result of first draw has no effect on the result of the
second draw. Hence, the events A and B are independent events.

12. Finite and infinite sample space

If a sample space has finite number of points, it is called a finite sample space. If it has as many
points as natural numbers1, 2, 3…it is called a countable infinite sample space. If it has as many
points as there are in some interval the x-axis, such as 0 < x < 1, it is called a non-countably infinite
sample space. A sample space which is finite or countably infinite is often called a discrete sample
space while a set which is non countably infinite is called non discrete or continuous sample space.

Example 5.6: a) The result of the experiment making bolts observing defective. Thus, the outcome
will be a member of the set {defective, non-defective}.

b) The lifetime of a bulb in example 5.3.

13. Equally likely outcomes: Equally likely outcomes are outcomes of an experiment which has
equal chance (equally probable) to appear. In most case it is commonly assumed finite or
countable infinite sample space is equally likely.
If we have n equally likely outcomes in the sample space then the probability of the ith sample point
xi is p (xi) = , where xi can be the first, second... or the nth outcome.

Example 5.7:
In an experiment tossing a fair die, the outcomes are equally likely (each outcome are equally
probable. Hence,
P (xi = 1) = P (xi = 2) = P (xi = 3) = P (xi = 4) = P (xi = 5) = P (xi = 6) =

5.4 Counting techniques

If the number of possible outcomes in an experiment is small, it is relatively easy to list and count
all possible events. When there are large numbers of possible outcomes an enumeration of cases is
often difficult, tedious, or both. Therefore, to overcome such problems one can use various counting
techniques or rules.
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
• The number of elements of an event
• The number of elements of the sample space.

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That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is possible.

• In order to determine the number of outcomes (possibilities), one can use several rules of counting.
These are;
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule
5.4.1 Addition rule
Suppose that a procedure designated by 1, can be performed in n 1 ways. Assume that second

procedure designated by 2 can be performed in n 2 ways. Suppose furthermore that it is not possible
both procedures 1 and 2 are performed together. The number of ways in which we can perform 1 or
2 procedures is n 1 + n 2 ways.

This can be generalized as follows if there are k procedure and i th procedures may be performed in
n i ways, i=1, 2… k, then the number of ways in which we perform procedure 1 or 2 or … or k is
k
given by n 1 +n 2 +…+ n k =  ni , assuming that no two procedures performed together.
i 1

Example 5.8:
Suppose that we are planning a trip and are deciding between bus and train transportation. If there
are 3 bus routes and 2 train routes to go from A to B, find the available routes for the trip. There are
3+2 = 5 possible routes for someone to go from A to B.

5.4.2 Multiplication Rule [Fundamental Principle of counting (mn Rule)]

Rule 1: Suppose that procedure 1 can be performed in n 1 ways. Let us assume procedure 2 can be

performed in n 2 ways. Suppose also that each way of doing procedure 2 may be followed
by any way of doing procedure 1, then the procedure consisting of n1 followed by n2 may be
performed by n 1 * n 2 ways.
Example 5.9:
An airline has 6 flights from A to B, and 7 flights from B to C per day. If the flights are to be made
on separate days, in how many different ways can the airline offer from A to C?

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Soln.
In operation 1 there are 6 flights from A to B, 7 flights are available to make flight from B to C.
Altogether there are 6*7 = 42 possible flights from A to C.
Rule 2: If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can
be performed in n2 ways, and for each of the first two a third operation can be performed in
n3 ways, and so forth, then the sequence of k operations can be performed in n1n2 · · · nk
ways.
Example 5.10:
Suppose that in a medical study patients are classified according to their blood type as A, B , AB,
and O; according to their RH factors as + or - and according to their blood pressure as high,
normal or low, then in how many different ways can a patient be classified ?
Soln.
The1st classification has done in 4 ways; the 2nd in 2 ways, and the 3rd in 3 ways. Thus, patient can
be classified in 4*2*3 = 24 different ways.

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Example 5.11:
How many even four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit
can be used only once?
Solution: Since the number must be even, we have only n1 = 3 choices for the unit’s position.
However, for a four-digit number the thousands position cannot be 0. Hence, we consider the units
position in two parts, 0 or not 0. If the units’ position is 0 (i.e., n1 = 1), we have n2 = 5 choices for
the thousands position, n3 = 4 for the hundreds position, and n4 = 3 for the tens position. Therefore,
in this case we have a total of:
n1n2n3n4 = (1)(5)(4)(3) = 60
even four-digit numbers. On the other hand, if the units’ position is not 0 (i.e., n1 = 2), we have n2
= 4 choices for the thousands position, n3 = 4 for the hundreds position, and n4 = 3 for the tens
position. In this situation, there are a total of
n1n2n3n4 = (2)(4)(4)(3) = 96
even four-digit numbers.
Since the above two cases are mutually exclusive, the total number of even four-digit numbers can
be calculated as 60 + 96 = 156.
5.4.3 Permutation Rule
Frequently, we are interested in a sample space that contains as elements all possible orders or
arrangements of a group of objects. For example, we may want to know how many different
arrangements are possible for sitting 6 people around a table, or we may ask how many different
orders are possible for drawing 2 lottery tickets from a total of 20. The different arrangements are
called permutations.
Permutation is an arrangement of all or parts of a set of objects with regard to order.
Rule 1: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together is n! or In particular, the
number of permutations of n objects taken n at a time is
n! n!
nPn=  = n!= n (n-1)(n-2)---(n-n)! in definition 0! = 1! = 1.
n  n! 0!

Example 5.12:
In how many ways 4 people are lined up to get on a bus (or to sit for photo graph)?
In 4! = 4*3*2*1 = 24 Ways.

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Rule-2: A permutation of n different objects taken r at a time is an arrangement of r out of the n

objects, with attention given to the order of arrangement. The number of permutations of n
objects taken r at a time is denoted by nPr, or P (n,r) and is given by
n!
nPr =
n  r !
Example 5.13:
The number of permutations of letters a, b & c taken two at a time is
3P2 = 6. These are ab, ba, ac, ca, bc & cb.

Rule-3: The number of permutations of n objects taken all at a time, when n1 objects are alike of
one kind, n2 objects are alike of second kind, …, nk objects are alike of kth kind is given by:

 k 
  ni !
  ki 1 
n!

 ni !
n1! n2 ! n3!...nk !
i 1

Example 5.14
The total number of arrangements of the letters of the word STATISTICS taken all at a time is given
10!
by = 50,400 since there are 3s’s, 3t’s, 1a, 2i’s and 1c.
3!3!1!2!1!
Rule 4: The number of arrangements of n distinct objects around circular object (table) is (n-1)!
And when the method of selection or arrangement of r objects from n objects with repetition
the possible numbers of arrangements are nr.
Example 5.15
Adama Science and Technology University Registrar Office want to give identity number for
students by using 4 digits. The number should be considered by the following numbers only: {0, 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, and 6}. Hence, how many different ID Numbers could be preferred by the Registrar
a. Without repeating the number?
b. With repetition of numbers?
We have 7 possible numbers for 4 digits. But the required number of digits for ID number is 4.
Hence n = 7 & r = 4. The possible number of ID numbers given for students without repeating the
digit is

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n! 7!
nPr, =  = 7*6*5*4 = 840.
n  r ! 7  4!
 The possible number of ID numbers given for students with repeating the digit is
nr = 74 = 7*7*7*7 = 2401
Exercise:
1. Suppose we have a letters A, B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
b) How many permutations are there two letters at a time?
2. How many different permutations can be made from the letters in the word
“COORRECTION”?
3. How many different arrangements are possible for sitting 10 people around a circular table?

5.4.4 Combinations Rule

Combination is the selection of objects without regarding order of arrangement. A combination of n
different objects taken r at a time is a selection of r out of n objects, with no attention given to the
order of arrangement. The total number of combinations of r objects selected from n (also called the
n
combinations of n things taken r at a time) is denoted by n C r
or ( ) or C r .

nn  1n  2...n  r  1 n! P

C =   n r
n r
r! r!n  r ! r!
Example 5.16
3!
The number of combinations of letters a, b& c taken two at a time is 3C2= = 3.
2!1!
These are ab, ac and bc. Note that ab is the same combination as ba, but not the same permutation.

Example 5.17:
Suppose in the box 3 red, 3 white and 5 black equal sized balls are there. We want to draw 3 balls at
a time. How many ways do we have from each type?
Solution
 3  3  5 
    = 3(3)5 = 45 ways.
 1  1  1 

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Example 5.18:
A bag contains 3 red, 6 white and 7 blue balls. What is the probability that two balls drawn are
white and blue? Solution: Total number of balls = 3 + 6 + 7 = 16
Now, out of 16 balls, 2 can be drawn in 16 C2 ways.

Exhaustive number of cases = 16C2

Out of 6 white balls, 1 ball can be drawn in 6C1 ways and out of 7 blue balls, one can be drawn is
7
C1 ways. Since each of the former case is associated with each of the latter case, therefore total
number of favorable cases are 6C1 * 7C1 = 6 * 7 = 42.
required probability Remark

Exercise:
1. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives. In how many ways can an inspector chose three of
the clocks for inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clocks is included.

5.5 Different Approaches to probability

In any random experiment there is always uncertainty as to whether a particular event will or will
not occur. As a measure of the chance, or probability, with which we can expect the event to occur,
it is convenient to assign a number between 0 and 1. If we are sure or certain that the event will
occur, we say that its probability is 100% or 1, but if we are sure that the event will not occur, we
say that its probability is zero.
There are different approaches by means of which we can define or estimate the probability of an
event. These approaches are discussed below:

1. Classical Approach
This approach traces back to the field where probability was first systematically employed, which is
gambling (flipping coins, tossing dice and so forth). Gambling problems are characterized by
random experiments which have n possible outcomes, equally likely to occur. It means that none of
them is more or less likely to occur than other ones, hence they are said to be in a symmetrical

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position. The idea of the classical approach is that, given a collection of k elements out of n (where
0 ≤ k ≤ n), the probability of occurrence of the event E represented by that collection is equal to:

To give you the intuition, let’s imagine you are tossing a dice and you want to predict the
probability of the following collection of outcomes:

We know that the n possible outcomes are 6. The event “one” is 1 out of 6 outcomes; hence its
probability is 1/6. Similarly, the event “five or six or one” (that is, the event in which one of those
numbers turns out) represents 3 outcomes out of 6, hence the probability will be 3/6=0.5.
The classical approach is pretty intuitive; nevertheless, it suffers from some pitfalls:
 The assumption of symmetry is far too strong and irrealistic. Namely, imagine you want to
know the probability of the event “tomorrow I will have a car accident”. The possible
outcomes of this scenario are two: having a car accident or not having a car accident. Given
that k=having a car accident, the probability of that event is 1/2, which, besides being a bit
worrying, is not representative of the real likelihood of the event.
 In this approach, there is no space for the concept of information, which is strictly related to
probability. Let’s think about the previous example of the dice. Imagine you are told this
dice is loaded and, instead of having the number “one”, it has two “six” (so the faces will be
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6). Provided with this information, which probability would you attribute to the
event “one”? Since it is impossible, the probability is equal to zero and not 1/6. Hence,
probability does depend on the available information (the intuition will be clearer in the
subjective approach)

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Example 5.19:
In rolling 2 dice and summing the 2 numbers on top. What is the sample space? What are the
probabilities of P (2), P (7) and P (10)?

2. Frequency-based (or empirical) approach

This approach was formally introduced in the field of natural science, where the assumption of
symmetric position poorly fails. Instead, the idea on which this approach is based is that several
experiments can be run under certain conditions considered as equivalent. Each experiment might
lead either to success or to an insuccess. Hence, given n random experiments run under equivalent
conditions, we define the frequency of “success” (which is an event E) as:

If we consider the “Empirical Law of Change”, which states that the more n increases, the more
stable the frequency becomes, we can conclude that the limit of that frequency, for n->infinite, does
exist and it is equal to the probability of the event “success”:

Let’s size the difference between the frequency-based and classical approach with the following
example. Imagine you want to know the probability of the outcome of your tossed coin being
“head”. You start with your classical approach: since the possible n outcomes are two (head or tail),
the probability of “head” is 1/2=0.5.
Now you decide to follow the empirical approach, and you start tossing your coin several times,
let’s say 100. Out of your attempts, you obtained 55 “head” and 45 “tail”. Hence, the frequency of
the event “head” is 55/100=0.55, and it can approximate the probability of the event “head”.
As you can see, we obtained two different probabilities (0.5 vs. o.55) for the same event. The key
difference is the role of information: after 100 experiments, you gathered empirical evidence that
“head” occurred more often than “tail”: it might be that your coin is not perfect, and you can
incorporate this information while formulating your conclusions.
This approach is not lacking of criticisms though:
 Again, there is one big assumption which is the convergence property of the frequency,
whose limit might not exist
 Repeating experiments under equivalent conditions might not be possible

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 There are events extremely rare, for which is impossible to run many simulations (think
about extreme natural events like tsunami).
Example 5.20:
Bits & Bytes Computer Shop tracks the number of desktop computer systems it sells over a month
(30 days):

Desktops sold 0 1 2 3 4
number of days 1 2 10 12 5

From this we can construct the “estimated” probabilities of an event (i.e. the Number of desktop
sold on a given day).

Desktops sold (X) number of days Probability of desktop sold P(X)

0 1 1/30 = 0.30 = P(X=0)
1 2 2/30 = 0.30 = P(X=1)
2 10 10/30 = 0.30 = P(X=2)
3 12 12/30 = 0.30 = P(X=3)
4 5 5/30 = 0.30 = P(X=4)

Example 5.21:
What about randomly selecting a student and observing their gender? S = {Male, Female}. Are
these probabilities ½?

3. Subjective approach
Developed by probabilist B. de Finetti, this is the most intuitive definition of probability. Indeed,
according to that approach, the probability of an event is the degree of belief a person attaches to
that event, based on his/her available information. This reasoning holds only under the assumption
of rationality, which assumes that people act coherently.
Let’s provide a more specific definition. Imagine a lottery where you can win an amount of money
equal to S if event E occurs. To participate, you have to buy one ticket. Now, which is the price you
would be willing to pay to participate in the lottery? If you indicate that price as π (E, S), the
probability of event E is given by:

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Imagine you want to predict the probability that your favourite football team will win the match
tomorrow. You have the possibility to participate in a lottery where, if the team wins, you obtain a
prize of 1000birr, otherwise you gain nothing. Which is the price you would be willing to pay to
participate? Let’s say you are very confident about your team capabilities and you are willing to pay
700birr. Hence, the probability your team wins the match tomorrow is:

This last approach does not count serious criticisms, since it resolves some pitfalls of the previous
approaches (like the impossibility of repeating experiments under equivalent conditions, because of
the uniqueness of many events) and, at the same time, does not contrast with other theories. Indeed,
the evaluator who has to decide the price of the lottery is not prevented from running experiments,
compute the frequency of successes and use this information to propose a price.
 Axioms of Probability
Now that the probability of an event has been defined, we can collect the assumptions that we have
made concerning probabilities into a set of axioms that the probabilities in any random experiment
must satisfy. The axioms ensure that the probabilities assigned in an experiment can be interpreted
as relative frequencies and that the assignments are consistent with our intuitive understanding of
relationships between relative frequencies. For example, if event A is contained in event B, we
should have . The axioms do not determine probabilities; the probabilities are
assigned based on our knowledge of the system under study. However, the axioms enable us to
easily calculate the probabilities of some events from knowledge of the probabilities of other events.
- Probability is a number that is assigned to each member of a collection of events from a random
experiment that satisfies the following properties:
If S is the sample space and E is any event in a random experiment,
i.
ii.
iii. For two events E1 and E2 with E1⋂ E2 = Ø
P (E1 E2) = P (E1) + P (E2)

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 ADDITION RULES
Joint events are generated by applying basic set operations to individual events. Unions of events,
such as ; intersections of events, such as ; and complements of events, such as A’, are
commonly of interest. The probability of a joint event can often be determined from the
probabilities of the individual events that comprise it. Basic set operations are also sometimes
helpful in determining the probability of a joint event.
- The probability is interpreting E1ed as the probability of A or B and to compute that
the following general addition rule applies.

- If A and B are mutually exclusive events,

- For three or more events:

More complicated probabilities, such as , can be determined by repeated use of
addition rule and by using some basic set operations. For example,

- If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events,

Example: If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events, is it possible to have P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4, and
P(C) = 0.5? if not why?
- A collection of events, E1, E2, E3, …, Ek is said to be mutually exclusive if for all pairs,

- For a collection of mutually exclusive events,

5.6 Conditional Probability

For two events A and B, the probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A
has occurred is called a conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A). The symbol P (B|A) is
usually read “the probability that B occurs given that A occurs” or simply “the probability of B,
given A.
Let there are two events A and B, then the probability of event A given that the outcome of event B
is given by:

P [A|B] >0

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Where P [A |B] is interpreted as the probability of event A on the condition that event B has
occurred. In this case P [A n B] is the joint probability of event A and B.
Example 5.22:
120 employees of a certain factory are given a performance test and are divided in to two groups
as those with good performance(G) and those with poor performance (P) the result is given below
Good performance (G) Poor performance(P) Total
Male (M) 60 20 80
Female (F) 25 15 40
Total 85 35 120
The probability of a person to be male given that it has a good performance is
PM  G  ⁄
P (M|G) = =
P(G ) ⁄

The probability of a person to be female given that it has a poor performance is

P M  P 
P (F|P) = =? Exercise!
P (P )

Example 5.23:
A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without replacement. The
probability of selecting a black marble and a white marble is 0.34, and the probability of selecting a
black marble on the first draw is 0.47. What is the probability of selecting white marble on the
second draw, given that the first marble drawn is black?

PWhite | Black  
P( Black and White) 0.34
  0.72
P( Black) 0.47

Example5.24:
The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are 5 schooldays in a
week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability that a student is absent given
that today is Friday?

P Absent | Friday 
P( Friday and Absent) 0.03
  0.15
P( Firday) 0.2

Example5.25:
Suppose that an office has 100 calculating machines. Some of them use electric power (E) while
others are manual (M) and some machines are well known (N) while others are used (U). The table

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below gives numbers of machines in each category. A person enter the office picks a machine at
random and discovers that it is new. What is the probability that it is used with electric power?
(Exercise!)

E M Total
N 40 30 70
U 20 10 30
Total 60 40 100

Probability of Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if and only if the following equivalent statements is true
i. P (A∩B) = P (A) * P (B).
ii. P (A/B) = P (A) and
iii. P(B/A) = P(B)
Example 5.26:
A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the probability of getting two black balls in
drawing one after the other under the following conditions?
a. The first ball drawn is not replaced
b. The first ball drawn is replaced
Solution; Let A= first drawn ball is black, B = second drawn is black
Required P (A ∩ B)
a. P (A∩B) = P (A). P (B|A) = 4/10 * 3/9 = 2/15
b. P (A∩B) = P (A). P (B) = 4/10 * 4/10 = 4/25

5.7 Multiplication Rule, Total Probability Rules, and Bayes’ Theorem

 Multiplication Rul
The definition of conditional probability can be rewritten to provide a general expression for the
probability of the intersection of two events. This formula is referred to as a multiplication rule for
probabilities. And expressed as;

Example 5.27; The probability that an automobile battery subject to high engine compartment
temperature suffers low charging current is 0.7. The probability that a battery is subject to high

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engine compartment temperature is 0.05. Let C denote the event that a battery suffers low charging
current, and let T denote the event that a battery is subject to high engine compartment temperature.
The probability that a battery is subject to low charging current and high engine compartment
temperature is;

 Total Probability Rule

The multiplication rule is useful for determining the probability of an event that depends on
other events. For example, suppose that in semiconductor manufacturing the probability is
0.10 that a chip that is subjected to high levels of contamination during manufacturing causes
a product failure. The probability is 0.005 that a chip that is not subjected to high contamination
levels during manufacturing causes a product failure. In a particular production run, 20%
of the chips are subject to high levels of contamination. What is the probability that a product
using one of these chips fails? Clearly, the requested probability depends on whether or not the chip
was exposed to high levels of contamination. We can solve this problem by the following reasoning.
For any event B, we can write B as the union of the part of B in A and the part of B in A’. That is,

This result is shown in the Venn diagram bellow. Because A and A’ are mutually exclusive, A⋂B
and A’⋂B are mutually exclusive. Therefore, from the probability of the union of mutually
exclusive events and the Multiplication Rule, the following total probability rule is obtained.

Partitioning an event in to two Partitioning an event in to several mutually

mutually exclusive subsets exclusive subsets

- For any two events A and B the total probability can be stated as:

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| |

- Total Probability Rule for Multiple Events;

Assume are k mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets. Then

| | |

Example 5.28: In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%, 45%, and

25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the

products made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is

randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?

Soln

- Consider the following events:

A: the product is defective,

B1: the product is made by machine B1,

B2: the product is made by machine B2,

B3: the product is made by machine B3.

Applying the rule of total probability, we can write

| | |

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 Bayes’ Theorem
In some examples, we do not have a complete table of information like in the case of conditional
probability above. We might know one conditional probability but would like to calculate a
different one.

From the definition of conditional probability,

| |

Now considering the second and last terms in the expression above, we can write:

|
| for

This is a useful result that enables us to solve for P(A|B) in terms of P(B|A).
In general, if P(B) in the denominator of above equation is written using the Total Probability Rule, we
obtain the following general result, which is known as Bayes ‘Theorem.

- If are k mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and B is any event,

|
|
| | |

Example 2:29: Because a new medical procedure has been shown to be effective in the early
detection of an illness, a medical screening of the population is proposed. The probability that the
test correctly identifies someone with the illness as positive is 0.99, and the probability that the test
correctly identifies someone without the illness as negative is 0.95. The incidence of the

illness in the general population is 0.0001. You take the test, and the result is positive. What is the
probability that you have the illness?

Soln
- Let D denote the event that you have the illness, and
- Let S denote the event that the test signals positive.
The probability requested can be denoted as | . The probability that the test correctly signals
someone without the illness as negative is 0.95. Consequently, the probability of a positive test
without the illness is;

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From Bayes’ Theorem,

|
|
| |

Example 5.30: While watching a game of Champions League football in a cafe, you observe
someone who is clearly supporting Manchester United in the game. What is the probability that they
were actually born within 25 miles of Manchester? Assume that:

- the probability that a randomly selected person in a typical local bar environment is born within
25 miles of Manchester is 1/20, and;
- the chance that a person born within 25 miles of Manchester actually supports United is 7/10;
- the probability that a person not born within 25 miles of Manchester supports United with
probability 1/10.

Soln
Define
- B - event that the person is born within 25 miles of Manchester
- U - Event that the person supports United.
We want | : Using Bayes’ Theorem;
| |
|
| |

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